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International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014
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Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

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Page 1: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

International Republican Institute

Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion

February 12-22, 2014

Page 2: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

Detailed Methodology• The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute, by Tunisian owned and operated

marketing research firm, ELKA Consulting under the supervision of David Williams from Williams and Associatesof Salem, Massachusetts.

• Data was collected February 12-22, 2014, using in-person, face-to-face methodology by trained professional interviewers.

• The sample was 1,232 adult Tunisians aged 18 and older.

• Interviewer were conducted using a multi-stage stratification proportionate to population sample distribution.

• Stratification was based on three stages: a proportional division among Tunisia’s 24 governorates, proportional division of urban and rural categories, and proportional division by gender and age group according to the most up-to-date data from Tunisia’s National Statistics Institute collected in July 2009. The sample was then post-weighted to make it proportionate to national representation by province.

• Each of Tunisia’s 24 governorates was divided into territorial sections or districts. In every territorial section at least one point of survey was selected with the overall number of points determined by population density. In every point of survey, interviewers were called to do no more than 10 interviews. Points of survey were distributed proportionally between rural and urban areas in every governorate and in every geographical section of the governorate. Points of survey in a territorial section within a governorate were selected randomly.

• The Kish method was used to select respondents 18 years and older within randomly selected households. The left-hand method was used to select every third household in localities selected through an area probability sample.

• The overall margin of error is plus or minus 2.84 percent at the midrange of the 95 percent confidence level.

• The information in this report has been compiled in accordance with international standards for market and social research methodologies.

• Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.

• This poll was conducted with support from the Middle East Partnership Initiative.

2

Page 3: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

International Republican Institute

Majority Support Democracy

Page 4: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

If you had a choice between a stable and prosperous Tunisia that was ruled by an authoritarian government or a democratic government that led to an unstable

and insecure Tunisia, which would you choose?

4

48%

70%

55%52% 52%

55%53% 53%

34%

26%

38%41% 42%

39% 39% 40%

18%

4%7% 7% 6% 6%

9%7%

Sep-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Democratic government Authoritarian government Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 5: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

I am going to read you three statements. Please indicate which is closest to your own opinion.

6%

29%

20%

46%

11%

30%

15%

44%

7%

26%

16%

52%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Don't know/Refused toanswer

In some circumstances anon-democratic

government can bepreferable

For someone like me, it doesn’t matter what

form of government we have

Democracy is preferableto any other kind of

government

Feb-14 Oct-13 Jun-13

5

Page 6: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

How satisfied are you with democracy in Tunisia at present?

6

9%

11%

15%

43%

43%

55%

23%

19%

15%

16%

19%

8%

8%

8%

8%

Jun-13

Oct-13

Feb-14

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied

Not very satisfied Not satisfied at all

Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 7: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

Thinking about Tunisia’s current political system, do you believe Tunisia is a democracy at present?

8%

26%

40%

20%

5%

11%

14%

36%34%

5%7%

15%

35%37%

5%

Full democracy Nearly full democracy Flawed democracy Not a democracy atall

Don't know/Refusedto answer

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45% Feb-14 Oct-13 Jun-13

7

Page 8: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

Which of the following statements best matches your own opinion of the role that religion should play in government and law making?

8

5%

16%

51%

9%

19%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Don't know

Islamic texts should form thefoundations of all policy and law

making

The principles of Islam should beone consideration but not the onlyconsideration when making policy

or law

Religious views should not providea source of justification for a

policy or law

Religion should be completelyabsent from government decision

making

Page 9: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

International Republican Institute

Growing Satisfaction and Significant Shift in

Mood of the Country

Page 10: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

Thinking about the current government, are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, not very satisfied or not satisfied at all

with the current* government’s performance?

10

7%

5%

7%

26%

28%

29%

23%

48%

21%

23%

18%

8%

43%

40%

48%

5%

2%

2%

4%

13%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Jan-13

Jun-13

Oct-13

Feb-14

Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied

Not very satisfied Not satisfied at all

Don't know/Refused to answer

*The Islamist-led government peacefully handed power to a nonpartisan technocrat government at the end of January 2014.

Page 11: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

Are you aware that the new constitution has been passed?

Yes70%

No30%

11

Page 12: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

How satisfied are you with the new constitution?(asked of those who were aware the new constitution had passed, n=863)

12

17% 45% 5% 5% 28%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Not very satisfied

Not satisfied at all Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 13: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

How would you say that things are going in Tunisia these days? Are things going in the right direction or the wrong direction?

13

79%

46%

37%

45%

62%

32%

30%

19% 19%16%

47%

14%

46%

54%

44%

30%

61%

67%

77% 77%

79%

48%

7% 8% 9% 11%8% 7%

3% 4% 4% 5%5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Mar-11 May-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14

Right direction Wrong direction Don’t know/Refused to answer

Page 14: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

Thinking ahead to next year, do you expect your household’s financial situation to be better or worse?

14

35%

28%

17%

15%

12%

12%

10%

6%

7%

11%

49%

43%

49%

47%

45%

44%

44%

33%

37%

51%

6%

12%

14%

16%

16%

18%

16%

21%

11%

14%

4%

4%

8%

10%

11%

12%

12%

11%

11%

7%

2%

3%

5%

7%

8%

8%

9%

12%

12%

5%

4%

11%

8%

6%

7%

6%

9%

18%

22%

12%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Mar-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

Aug-12

Jan-13

Jun-13

Oct-13

Feb-14

Much better Somewhat betterSame Somewhat worseMuch worse Don’t know/Refused to answer

Page 15: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

International Republican Institute

Priority Issues: The Economy, Unemployment and Security

Page 16: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

What would you say are the most important problems facing Tunisia as a whole?

(open-ended, top responses only)

16

First mention Second mention Third mention Total

Unemployment 32% 20% 15% 67%

Economy/Financial crisis 15% 29% 16% 60%

Terrorism 26% 12% 13% 50%

Security 10% 15% 15% 40%

Corruption/Transparency 3% 4% 6% 13%

Strikes/Sit-ins 2% 4% 5% 11%

Violence/Delinquency/

Vandalism2% 2% 7% 11%

Political conflicts/Tensions 4% 2% 4% 9%

Standard of living/

Increasing prices3% 3% 0% 6%

Elections 0% 1% 2% 2%

Don’t know/

Refused to answer1% 6% 18% 24%

Page 17: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

Which of the following should be a top priority for the current government?

(open-ended, top responses only)

17

Issue First mention Second mention Third mention Total

Employment 35% 20% 13% 67%

Economic development/

Economic reform19% 27% 15% 62%

Security 21% 17% 15% 53%

Living standards 12% 16% 18% 46%

Social reforms 2% 5% 6% 13%

Regional development 2% 3% 4% 9%

Corruption/Transparency 2% 3% 4% 8%

Organize elections 1% 2% 3% 6%

Achieve the goals of the

revolution1% 1% 2% 4%

Reform education system 1% 1% 1% 4%

Health sector <1% 1% <1% 1%

Don’t know/

Refused to answer1% 4% 16% 20%

Page 18: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

Which answer best describes your current economic situation?

18

32%28% 27%

31%

28%

22%

19% 19%

29%

22%

43% 43%47%

49%48%

44%

48%46%

48%

38%

22% 21% 19%

15%

20%

31%

25%28%

17%

33%

3%5%

3% 2%

4% 3%5% 6% 5% 6%

1% 3%

4% 3%<1% <1%

3%1% 1% 1%

Mar-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

I have trouble feeding myself and my family and buying even the most essential things for survival.

I have enough means for survival, but I do not have enough money for extra things.

I am able to afford things like new clothes and eating at restaurants, but not very often.

I am able to afford things like new clothes and eating out and also support other members of my family who cannot.

Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 19: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

How would you describe the current economic situation in Tunisia?

19

4%

3%

2%

3%

1%

2%

2%

1%

1%

2%

25%

22%

24%

23%

20%

26%

14%

18%

16%

28%

46%

45%

37%

30%

37%

41%

33%

29%

25%

28%

20%

28%

34%

41%

40%

29%

49%

52%

57%

40%

5%

3%

3%

3%

2%

2%

2%

1%

2%

2%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Mar-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

Aug-12

Jan-13

Jun-13

Oct-13

Feb-14

Very good Somewhat good Somewhat bad Very bad Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 20: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

For each of the following issues, do you feel that the situation has become better, worse or stayed the same over the last year?

20

14%

35%

25%

16%

9%

4%

5%

5%

3%

2%

2%

29%

42%

38%

28%

30%

19%

20%

20%

19%

23%

12%

30%

7%

14%

21%

22%

30%

30%

23%

25%

17%

18%

6%

7%

6%

8%

8%

18%

19%

17%

18%

25%

27%

8%

8%

9%

10%

10%

24%

20%

29%

23%

30%

41%

13%

1%

8%

18%

21%

6%

8%

7%

12%

2%

1%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Women's/Minorities' rights

Security

Development of independent media

Development of independent civil society

Organizing elections

Healthcare

Education

Sanitation/Trash removal

Government corruption

Economy

Living standards

Much better Somewhat better Same Somewhat worse Much worse Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 21: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

Has your household’s financial situation become better or worse over the last year?

21

8%

9%

6%

6%

7%

6%

8%

7%

5%

5%

27%

24%

29%

27%

30%

31%

31%

32%

31%

31%

31%

37%

31%

30%

21%

21%

23%

22%

20%

20%

18%

15%

18%

19%

21%

24%

19%

18%

21%

21%

18%

15%

14%

17%

21%

18%

18%

22%

23%

23%

1%

1%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

1%

<1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Mar-11

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-12

Apr-12

Aug-12

Jan-13

Jun-13

Oct-13

Feb-14

Much better Somewhat better Same

Somewhat worse Much worse Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 22: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

Are you seeking a job?

(all respondents except those who are retired, n=1,138)

22

Yes35%

No65%

Page 23: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

What kind of job are you looking for?

(open-ended, June n=431; Oct n=454; Feb n=401)

23

1%

3%

4%

7%

6%

8%

25%

9%

14%

13%

10%

4%

3%

6%

8%

8%

10%

10%

10%

11%

12%

21%

3%

6%

6%

7%

14%

11%

10%

13%

14%

18%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Don't know/Refused to answer

Healthcare

Information/Communications technology

Tourism

Education

Professional services

Any sector

Agriculture/Forestry/Fishing

Government

Commerce/Entrepreneurship

Manufacturing/Mining/Construction

Feb-14 Oct-13 Jun-13

Page 24: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

What do you think is the best way to increase jobs in Tunisia? (open-ended, June n=431; Oct n=454; Feb n=401)

24

10%

3%

2%

1%

3%

4%

3%

6%

11%

13%

7%

37%

6%

1%

1%

3%

4%

2%

6%

13%

13%

7%

45%

4%

5%

1%

1%

2%

2%

3%

5%

5%

6%

9%

9%

10%

39%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

Don't know/Refused to answer

Other

Early retirement

Develop the agricultural sector

Reduce government regulation

Invest

Create projects

End strikes/Sit-ins

Increase tourism

Reduce corruption

Improve security

Expand public sector

Improve education/Vocational training

Increase foreign direct investment

Feb-14

Oct-13

Jun-13

Page 25: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

Should the government provide you assistance in finding a job?

(asked of those who respond as unemployed and seeking a job, n=401)

25

Yes78%

No22%

Page 26: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

What kind of help should the government provide?

(open-ended, n=310)

26

3%

3%

3%

7%

8%

20%

24%

32%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Don't know/Refused to answer

Other

Dole/Unemployment Benefits

Invest

Improve public job process

Employment

Give loans

Create new projects

Page 27: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

In your opinion has public security improved in Tunisia since the 2011 elections?What about in your neighbourhood or community specifically?

27

78%

84%

21%

14%

1%

2%

Myneighborhood/

Community

Tunisia

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Yes No Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 28: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

How much do you trust each of the following to protect your neighborhood?

28

40%

43%

35%

44%

52%

64%

44%

48%

30%

29%

18%

83%

86%

80%

83%

87%

89%

32%

27%

30%

33%

27%

23%

16%

18%

12%

11%

11%

9%

7%

13%

11%

9%

7%

10%

13%

14%

8%

7%

6%

8%

8%

8%

4%

7%

2%

3%

2%

3%

1%

1%

17%

16%

20%

15%

14%

8%

23%

23%

34%

31%

39%

5%

3%

5%

3%

3%

2%

1%

1%

1%

1%

10%

4%

16%

25%

27%

1%

1%

1%

<1%

1%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Apr-12

Aug-12

Jan-13

Jun-13

Oct-13

Feb-14

National Police

Apr-12

Aug-12

Jun-13

Oct-13

Feb-14

Citizen Security Groups

Apr-12

Aug-12

Jan-13

Jun-13

Oct-13

Feb-14

National Army

A Great Deal Fair Amount Only a Little Not at All Don't know/Refused to answer

*In January 2013, participants were not asked to rate their level of trust in citizen security groups.

Page 29: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

Are the Leagues for Protection of the Revolution* active in your neighborhood?

29

14%

72%

16%

Yes No Don't know/Refused to answer

*The Leagues for Protection of the Revolution are an example of the citizen security groups referenced on the previous slide.

Page 30: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

In your opinion, how would you rate the effect of the Leagues for Protection of the Revolution

on security in your neighborhood?

(only those who responded the leagues were active in their neighborhood, n=347)

30

8% 12% 5% 13% 61%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Very positive Somewhat positive Somewhat negativeVery negative Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 31: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

International Republican Institute

Political Parties and Campaigns

Page 32: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

Do politicians in Tunis care enough about local problems in the rest of the country?

32

5%

2%

4%

22%

24%

44%

5%

3%

4%

19%

21%

49%

7%

4%

6%

12%

20%

50%

7%

10%

4%

18%

23%

37%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Don'tknow/Refused to

answer

Too much

Yes completely

Mainly yes

Mainly no

Not at all

Feb-14

Oct-13

Jun-13

Jan-13

Page 33: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

In general, are political parties doing a lot, enough, little or nothing to address the needs of people like you?

33

2%

2%

2%

20%

12%

15%

31%

22%

27%

42%

61%

52%

4%

3%

4%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Jun-13

Oct-13

Feb-14

A lot Enough Little Nothing Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 34: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

Which of the following statements best describes the role that political parties play in Tunisia?

34

4%

6%

33%

57%

4%

5%

29%

62%

4%

6%

33%

57%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Don't know/Refused to answer

Political parties representpeople's interests and seek

solutions to benefit the country

Political parties can play apositive role in Tunisia, but they

have not yet done so

Political parties are onlyinterested in power and personal

gain

Feb-14 Oct-13 Jun-13

Page 35: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

Did you vote in the October 23, 2011 national constituent assembly elections?

35

Yes60%

No40%

Page 36: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

For whom did you vote in the national constituent assembly elections?

36

40%

27%

6%4% 3%

2% 2%1% <1%

5%4%

6%

Did

not

vote

Ennahdha

CPR

Ett

akato

l

Al Ari

dha a

l Chaabia

PD

P

Al M

oubadra

Independent

list

PO

CT

Oth

er

Don't K

now

Refu

sed t

o a

nsw

er

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Congress for the Republic CPR

Progressive Democratic Party PDP

The Workers’ Party POCT

Page 37: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

Looking ahead to the next elections, do you intend to vote for the same party or a different party?

(only those who voted in 2011: Jun n=799; Oct n=776; Feb n=739)

37

19%

15%

29%30%

7%

17%

19%

24%

35%

5%

20%

14%

30%31%

6%

I intend to vote for thesame party

I do not intend to vote I intend to vote for adifferent party

I have not yet decidedwhom I will vote for

Don't know/Refused toanswer

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%Feb-14 Oct-13 Jun-13

Page 38: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

If you had to choose from the following political parties, for whom would you vote in the next elections?

38

49%

5%

2%

1%

1%

1%

2%

2%

5%

14%

19%

1%

39%

7%

6%

1%

2%

2%

2%

2%

4%

14%

20%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

I will not vote

Undecided/Don'tknow

Refused toanswer

Other

CPR

Afek Tunis

Al Joumhouri

Ettakatol

Al Aridha alChaabia

Al Jabha alChaabia

Ennahdha

Nida Tunis

Feb-14

Oct-13

Page 39: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

If you had to choose a candidate for president, for whom would you vote in the next elections?

(open-ended)

39

4%

33%

7%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

2%

2%

2%

3%

5%

5%

12%

16%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Refused to answer

Don't know

Other

Slim Riahi

Kamel Morjen

Hamma Hammami

Lotfi Ben Jeddou

Taieb Bacouche

Mustapha Ben Jaafar

Hachmi Hamdi

Ali Larayedh

Kais Saiid

Moncef Marzouki

Hammadi Jebali

Mehdi Jomaa

Beji Kaied Sebsi

Page 40: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

There are discussions going on currently about a threshold for the next parliamentary elections, for which any party or candidate list would need to reach a certain minimum percentage of votes to earn a seat in parliament.

What is your opinion of a threshold for parliamentary seats?

40

32% 22% 6% 16% 24%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove

Strongly disapprove Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 41: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

For the next elections, which of the following choices would be best for Tunisia?

41

8%

9%

45%

13%

26%

13%

12%

48%

9%

19%

11%

13%

41%

8%

26%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Don't know/Refused to answer

Many small political partiescompeting against each other

A few large parties competingagainst each other

A few coalitions of many smallpolitical parties

A few coalitions of large parties

Feb-14 Oct-13 Jun-13

Page 42: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

Regardless of which party you support, in your opinion how confident are you in the parties that did not participate in government to handle the following issues?

42

10%

16%

11%

9%

10%

10%

10%

14%

12%

13%

11%

30%

32%

30%

24%

28%

28%

31%

31%

31%

31%

30%

19%

15%

19%

21%

19%

19%

18%

14%

16%

16%

18%

27%

24%

26%

31%

27%

26%

27%

25%

26%

27%

28%

14%

13%

14%

16%

17%

16%

15%

17%

15%

13%

13%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Roads/Transportation

Security

Education

Government corruption

Sanitation/Trash removal

Access to electricity

Healthcare

Women's/Minorities' rights

Development of independent media

Economy

Living standards

Very confident Somewhat confident Not very confident Not confident at all Don't know/Refused to Answer

Page 43: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

If you could pick, which type of government would you prefer in Tunisia?

43

41%

14%

33%

12%

47%

13%

32%

8%

49%

17%

26%

9%

53%

18%

24%

5%

52%

19%21%

8%

24%

16%

53%

7%

25%

19%

42%

14%

Presidential system Parliamentary system A mixed government Don't know/Refused toanswer

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Feb-14 Oct-13 Jun-13 Jan-13 Aug-12 Apr-12 Jan-12

Page 44: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

I would like to ask you about your impressions of the following people. Do you approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove

or disapprove of the following?

44

5%

36%

50%

19%

30%

41%

30%

56%

25%

72%

12%

31%

41%

25%

8%

27%

40%

19%

31%

19%

-71%

-51%-42%

-55%-59%

-48%

-38%

-20%

-51%

-8%

-30%

-63%

-43% -46%

-22%

-63%

-35%-41%

-33%-29%

-66%

-15%

8%

-36%-29%

-7% -8%

36%

-26%

64%

-17%

-32%

-2%

-22%-15%

-36%

5%

-22%

-2%

-11%

-75%

-55%

-35%

-15%

5%

25%

45%

65%

Abu Iyadh

Ali L

ara

yedh

Beji

Kaie

d S

ebsi

Hachm

i H

am

di

Ham

ma H

am

mam

i

Ham

madi Jebali

Houcin

e A

bass

i

Lotf

i Ben J

eddou

Maya J

eri

bi

Mehdi Jom

aa

Mohse

n M

arz

ouk

Moncef

Marz

ouki

Must

apha B

en J

aafa

r

Neji

b C

hebbi

Noom

ane F

ehri

Rachid

Ghanouchi

Sam

ir D

ilou

Slim

Ria

hi

Taie

b B

acouche

Yass

ine B

rahim

Approve Disapprove Difference

Page 45: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

International Republican Institute

Sources of Information andView of the Media

Page 46: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

How often do you keep informed about the National Constituent Assembly’s work?

46

14%

31%

10%

8%

30%

<1%

Once a day Once a weekOnce a month Less than once a monthNever Don't know/Refused to answer

Page 47: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

Where do you get your information about the work of the National Constituent Assembly?

47

<1%

1%

3%

7%

89%

1%

1%

1%

3%

7%

88%

3%

1%

<1%

4%

6%

85%

1%

<1%

1%

4%

94%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Don't know/Refused toanswer

Newspaper

Family/Friends/Colleagues

Radio

Internet

Television

Feb-14 Oct-13 Jun-13 Jan-13

Page 48: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

Thinking about Tunisia media in general, do you trust the media to provide accurate and unbiased information?

48

4%

10%

28%

41%

17%

3%

12%

26%

42%

17%

3%

9%

34%

37%

17%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

Don't know/Refused to answer

I trust the media for all news stories

I trust the media for most news

I trust the media for some news

I rarely or never trust the media

Feb-14 Jun-13 Oct-13

Page 49: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

Which national radio station do you listen to get your news?

49

1%

33%

7%

1%

2%

2%

2%

2%

3%

4%

4%

8%

8%

24%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Don't know/Refused to answer

I don’t listen to the radio

Other

Radio Kef

Radio Gafsa

Radio Tataouine

Radio Monastir

Radio Jeunes

Radio Chambi FM

Shems FM

Radio Sfax

Radio Tunis National Channel

Jawhara FM

Mosaique FM

Page 50: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

Which national television station do you watch to get your news?

50

50%

26%

9%

6%4%

1%

4%

1%

National 1(state-owned)

Ettounsiya TV Nessma TV Hannibal TV Other Al HiwarEttounsi

I don’t watch TV

Don'tknow/Refused

to answer

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Page 51: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

Which specific media source do you trust most for your political news?

(open-ended)

51

20%

1%

1%

1%

2%

2%

4%

4%

5%

5%

7%

10%

11%

29%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Don't Know

National 2

Radio Mosaique FM

Facebook

Al Arabia

Internet

Television

Hannibal TV

Aljazeera TV

Nessma TV

France 24

Other

Ettounsiya TV

National 1

Page 52: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

Which specific media source do you trust the least for your political news?

(open-ended)

52

39%

8%

1%

1%

1%

2%

2%

3%

3%

3%

4%

5%

7%

11%

12%

Don't Know

Other

Al Chourouk

Zitouna TV

France 24

Al Hiwar Ettounsi TV

Journal

Internet

Facebook

Al Arabia

Hannibal TV

Ettounsiya TV

Aljazeera TV

National 1

Nessma TV

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Page 53: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

Where are you most likely to get your local news and information?

53

First mention Second mention Third mention Total

Tunisian television 65% 23% 5% 93%

Radio 9% 34% 12% 55%

Internet 18% 9% 8% 35%

Newspaper 3% 11% 14% 27%

Gatherings at public places 3% 6% 12% 21%

SMS <1% <1% 1% 1%

Mosque <1% <1% 1% 1%

Other 1% 1% 1% 3%

Don’t know/

Refused to answer1% 16% 48% 65%

Page 54: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

Do you have access to the Internet?

54

49%

51%

Yes No

69%

15%

6%

1% 10%

Home Mobile Work School Other

If yes, where do you

usually access it? (n=601)

Page 55: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

International Republican Institute

Demographics

Page 56: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

Demographics

50%50%

Gender

Male Female

48%

24%

21%

7%

Age

18-35 36-49

50-65 66 and older

Page 57: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

Demographics

57

67%

33%

Dwelling Location

Urban Rural

83%

17%

Yes No

Do you or your family own your own home?

Page 58: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

Demographics

9%

26%

40%

4%

13%

8%

Education

Never went to school

Primary school

Secondary school

Professional Training

University

Graduate degree

93%

7%

Arabic-speaking

Yes No

58

Page 59: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

Demographics

59

18%

40%

26%

9%

3%

2% 2%

Less than 200 dinars Between 201 and 500 dinars

Between 501 and 1,000 dinars Between 1,001 and 1,500 dinars

Between 1,501 and 2,500 dinars More than 2,501 dinars

Don't know/Refused to answer

How much does your household earn per month?

Page 60: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

Educational attainment among monthly household income levels

60

24%

9%

4%2%

5%

39%35%

17%

5% 4%

13%

5%

30%

42%

46%

41%

27%

38%

54%

1%4% 5% 4%

10%

5%5% 6%

17%

29% 29%

13%

18%

2%5%

11%

18%

26%

38%

14%

1%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Less than 200 201-500 501-1,000 1,001-1,500 1,501-2,500 More than2,501

Refused toanswer

Never went to school Primary school Secondary school Professional training

University Graduate degree Refused to answer

Page 61: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

Demographics

35%

23%

8%

24%

11%

<1%

Employed

Unemployed

Retired

Homemaker

Student

Don’t know/Refused to answer61

What is your occupational status?

32%

30%2%

36%

Employed

Unemployed

Homemaker

Student

Don't know/Refused to answer

Occupational status among those aged 18-35 with college

or graduate degrees(n=198)

Page 62: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

Which national newspaper do you read to get your news?

62

61%20%

6%

4%

3%3%

2%

1%1%

I don’t read the newspaperAl Chourouk

Assarih

Other

Assabah

La Presse

El Bayane

Al Ilene

Don't know/Refused toanswer

Page 63: Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 April 23...International Republican Institute Survey of Tunisian Public Opinion February 12-22, 2014 Detailed Methodology •

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International Republican Institute

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www.WilliamsPolls.com