Supply and demand of agricultural graduates in the agriculture sector Education, Science and Skills Development.

Supply and demand of agricultural graduates in

the agriculture sector

Supply and demand of agricultural graduates in

the agriculture sector

Education, Science and Skills Education, Science and Skills DevelopmentDevelopment

This presentation:This presentation:

1. Overview - output of agricultural education and training institutions

2. Examination of the size of intermediate to high skills labour force

3. Supply – demand and absorbtion4. Key factors and themes

affecting supply and demand5. Recommendations

1. Institutional output1. Institutional output

Output of qualified people from Agricultural education institutions

Institution Sector Year Graduates Employment

Technikons and Universities

2003 1 765 Professional and vocational Agricultural Colleges 2004 624

Vocational Education

FET Colleges 2004 161

High skill

Intermediate skills

General/ vocational

Agricultural High Schools

2003 639

Subject choice in General education

Ordinary High Schools offering Agricultural Science

2003 60 112

• Approximate total of 2550 graduates for one year 2003

2. Employment in Agriculture

2. Employment in Agriculture

Employment distribution by industry (000) March 2004

Total employed 11 984

Agriculture 1271 10.60%

Out of which:

Commercial agriculture

930 73.4%

Subsistence or small scale agriculture

337 26.6%

(1267) 100%

Formal agricultural sector employment was 10.6% of all formal employment Informal agricultural sector employment was 15.5% of all informal employment

Employment by industry

Employment by industry

Workers by main industry and monthly income LFS March 2004

Field of study None R2500 or

less R2501- R8000

R8001 or more

Total

Total employment 277 6968 2943 1004 11984

Agriculture hunting forestry and fishing

184 992 47 20 1271

Total employment 2.5% 62.3% 26.3% 9.0% 100%

Agriculture hunting forestry and fishing

14.8% 79.8% 3.8% 1.6% 100%

Figures in 000 Total includes “Don’t know” “Refused” or “Unspecified Income”

• Salary of >R2500 per month is proxy for intermediate to higher

level skills• Approximately 67 000 workers • But subtract workers with non-agricultural skills

Employment by occupation

Employment by occupation

Employment by occupation

Employment by occupation

Workers by main occupation and monthly income

Field of study None R2500 or

less R2501- R8000

R8001 or more

Total

Total employment 277 6968 2943 1004 11984

Skilled agriculture and fishery workers

178 88 18 11 308

Total employment 2.5% 62.3% 26.3% 9.0% 100% Skilled agriculture and fishery workers 60.3% 29.8% 6.1% 3.7% 100%

Total includes “Don’t know” “Refused” or “Unspecified Income” Figures in 000

9.0% 9.0% 9.0%

• Salary of >R2500 per month is proxy for intermediate to higher level skills• Approximately 29 000 workers • But does not include other agriculture occupations eg: professionals,

scientists etc.

Employment by field of study

Employment by field of study

Workers with degrees diplomas and certificates by field of study and

monthly income in the LFS March 2004

Field of study None R2500 or

less R2501- R8000

R8001 or more

Total

Total employment * 221 925 594 2006

Agriculture and nature conservation

- * 19 14 42

Total employment - 11.1% 46.1% 29.6% 100% Agriculture and nature conservation

- * 45.2% 33.4% 100%

Total includes “Don’t know” “Refused” or “Unspecified Income” For all values of 10 000 or lower (see *) the sample size is too small for reliable estimates Figures in 000

• Salary of >R2500 per month is proxy for intermediate to higher level skills

• Between 33 000 to 42 000 workers • But some of these may not be working in the agricultural sector

3. Contribution of output to cover demand

3. Contribution of output to cover demand

• LFS 2004 suggests that out of 308 000 “Skilled agricultural and fishery workers” there are 42 000 with degrees diplomas and certificates

• We have 2550 FET to HET graduates entering the labour market

• The replacement rate that can be sustained for intermediate to high skills work in agriculture is:• Between 2 550/42 000 = 6.1%

Changing labour market conditions

Changing labour market conditions

• Long term decline in employment but share for agriculture rises from 12% to 13% (1995 to 2002) - this gives a 24.7% increase in real terms (Bhorat,2005)

• Rising skills composition of the agricultural labour force

Skills breakdown of employment in the Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing sector for 1995 and 2002

in % 1995 2002 Change

Skilled 1.0 2.0 +1

Semi-skilled 22.0 46.0 +24

Unskilled 77.0 52.0 -25

Total 100 100 - Note: ‘Skilled’ refers to ISOC 1-3, ‘Semi-skilled’ refers to ISOC 4-8, and ‘unskilled’ refers to ISOC 9.

Labour market absorbtion

Labour market absorbtion

Unemployed persons with degrees, diplomas and certificates by field of study, definition of unemployment and sex in the LFS March 2004 ( in 000)

Official definition Expanded definition Field of study for degree, diploma or certificate Total Male Female Total Male Female Total 217 90 128 289 111 178 Communication studies and language * * * * * * Education, training and development 45 16 29 58 19 39 Manufacturing, engineering and technology 25 16 * 34 22 13 Human and social studies * * * 11 * * Law, military service and security * * * 12 * * Health sciences and social services 17 * 14 21 * 18 Agriculture and nature conservation * * * * * * Culture and arts * * * * * * Business, commerce and management studies

62 26 35 85 33 52

Physical, mathematical, computer and life sciences

23 * 16 32 * 22

Services * * * * * * Physical planning and construction * * * * * * Don’t know/unspecified * * * * * * * For all values of 10 000 or lower, numbers are too small for reliable estimates

Absorbtion of graduatesAbsorbtion of graduates• 1.5% of agricultural graduates

experienced of a period of unemployment – but in proportion with total share of graduates in 2000 of 1.47% (Moleke,2005)

• Agricultural graduates finding work• 93% successful after 6 months• 80% successful among Humanities, Arts and Law

graduates

• Note: Data for higher education only - not Colleges

Key findings: Demand signals

Key findings: Demand signals

• Demand for skills rising with vertical and horizontal integration of product value chains

• Formalisation of industry organisations is evident with positive impact:

• Professional (eg:Soil Science Society of SA)

• Producers (eg: SA Avocado Growers Assoc)

• Service (eg: Field Guides Association)• Consumer bodies (eg: SA Red Meat

Industry Company)

Key findings: demand patterns

Key findings: demand patterns

• Main demand for agriculture skills is in primary agriculture

• Skills required outside of the range of agricultural fields eg:

• Management and financial• Chemical engineering• Chemistry• Food Technology

Key findings: demand patterns

Key findings: demand patterns

• Occupational categories of skills upgrading needs:

• Growing interest among employers in R&D activities

• Sales positions have rising requirements

• Farmers and Farm managers

• Specific skills sets (Sectoral) eg:

• Animal feeds – Feed Formulator• Seed manufacture – Seed Scientists• Public Sector - veterinarians (inter

alia)

Key findings: general issues

Key findings: general issues

• Cross-cutting skills – life-skills, communication, teamwork, IT etc.

• Perceptions of employers about graduates

• Concerns regarding image of agriculture

Key findings: supply-demand

Key findings: supply-demand

• Factors creating ‘localised’ demand• Wage differentials (Public – Private)• Rural – urban differentials in supply• Intra-sectoral labour market

demand imbalances• Time-based nature of demand• Geo-climatic influences

Key findings: supply-demand

Key findings: supply-demand

• How demand is being met:• Substitution masks ‘real’ demand• Demand is partially met by short courses

with focused high skills inputs• Poor labour market information limits

positive matches – but see role of associations

• Demand is being met by adaptation (BAgric) in career paths

• Demand can be met by conversions (BSc)

Recommendations Recommendations

• Improve dissemination and use of information in private and public sector labour markets

• Dept of Agriculture website• Annual HR/Training/HRD event

• Sustain quality and focus of agricultural study programmes

• Race and gender differentials• Workplace skills in curriculum• Agriculture as business• Support for rural based

institutions

RecommendationsRecommendations• Support stronger cooperation

between training providers and employers

• Support for industry associations• Facilitate higher-education industry

interaction re niche training needs

• Foster intergovernmental collaboration

• The mission of Agricultural Colleges• The curriculum focus of Agricultural

High Schools

RecommendationsRecommendations• Strategically target scarce skills

• Target key occupations/programmes

• Consider R&D skills

• Support courses of shorter duration than programmes

• AGRISETA• FET Colleges• Upskilling and in-service training

as NB as pre-service education

• Research• Needs analysis of targeted sectors

to encourage employers to train

Thank You

Equity parametersEquity parameters

Workers by main industry population group and gender, LFS 2004 (%)

African Coloured Indian White Male Female

All workers 68.0 12.2 3.6 16.2 56.3 43.7

Agriculture,hunting forestry and fishing

74.1 19.4 0.1 6.4 65.0 35.0

Challenges for understanding demand

and supply

Challenges for understanding demand

and supply

• Measuring Labour force growth (and decline)

• Monitoring education outputs

Growth in education system

Growth in education system

Average increase in ARNR graduation numbers in HET for two five year periods between 1994 and 2003

Range of years 1994 – 1998 1999 - 2003 Increase

between two periods

Universities 639 824 29%

Technikons 569 725 27%

Total 1209 1549 28%

Areas of specialisationAreas of specialisation

Agriculture Graduates in 2nd order CESM category/sub field in HET (%) 1994 - 2003 % Share

2nd order CESM category 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

0101 Agricultural Economics 16 9 10 11 14 10 15 15 14 13

0102 Agricultural Extension 3 4 5 4 4 5 3 7 7 5

0103 Agricultural Food Technology 4 3 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 3

0104 Animal Sciences 22 21 22 17 18 22 24 26 24 30

0105 Horticulture 13 9 14 14 8 8 6 7 9 5

0106 Plant Sciences 11 15 13 14 14 15 17 13 15 16

0107 Soil Sciences 3 5 3 2 2 2 5 4 4 4

0108 Fisheries 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0109 Forestry 8 6 5 5 5 3 3 4 4 2

0110 Outdoor Recreation 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3 3 3

0111 Wildlife 4 4 4 4 8 6 6 7 5 6

0112 Land Reclamation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

0113 Renewable Natural Resources 5 8 8 8 6 6 3 5 4 4

0199 Other Ag. and Renewable Resources 11 15 15 20 18 20 11 8 7 8

Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Shift to formal workShift to formal work

Workers by main occupation and sector, LFS 2004

Main occupation Formal Informal Domestic Unspecified Total

Total employment 7 435 3 329 1 001 115 11 880

Skilled agricultural and fishery workers

180 1 480 - * 1 667

Total employment 62.6% 28.0% 8.4% 0.0% 100%

LFS 2000 Feb

Skilled agricultural and fishery workers 10.8% 88.8% - * 100%

Total 8757 2171 1013 11984

Skilled agricultural and fishery workers

90 216 308

Total 73.%1 18.1% 8.5% - 100%

LFS 2004 March

Skilled agricultural and fishery workers 29.2% 70.1% - - 100%

For all values of 10 000 or lower (see *) the sample size is too small for reliable estimates Figures in 000