Summary of Travel Trendsonlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/Conferences/2018/NHTS/Mc...30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Total Percent of People with

Summary of Travel Trends Findings from the 2017 NHTS

Nancy McGuckin, Travel Behavior Analyst

Anthony Fucci, Westat

1

A BIG thank you to:

FHWA Team:

• Danny Jenkins, FHWA

• Stacey Bricka, Macrosys

• Tim Reusher, ORNL

2

Westat Team:

• Janice Machado

• Shawn McCloskey

• Shelly Brock

2009 NHTS 2017 NHTS

• Address-based Sample Frame

• Mail-out/Mail-back Recruit

• ‘Usable’ household requires 100%

of members 5+ to complete

• Network-coded shortest path rip

distances

• Self-report on a Web-based

Retrieval with CATI option

• RDD Landline Sample Frame

• Mail-out/Telephone Recruit

• ‘Usable’ household requires

50% of adults to complete

• Self-reported trip distances

• Computer Assisted Telephone

Interviewing only (CATI)

3

Critical Method Differences:

2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends

Short story on method effects (so far):

• Trip rates by age, sex, urban/rural, income, purpose, etc. all seem to track with previous trends--they continue to decline. There may be some effect here due to self-reporting—more research is needed.

• Trip distance was collected differently and may need an adjustment to be comparable. This effects VMT and PMT trends. More research is needed.

• Transit is a bit high while vehicle trip rates are a bit low—we don’t know why yet. FHWA has funded research on this.

• Walk and bike may have a break in trends analysis due to a change in trip definition, and possibly under-reporting of short non-purposeful trips. More research is needed.



• Trip Rates• Immobile Rates/Zero Trip Reports• Trips per Traveling Person• Trip Distance• Transit & Walk

6

Trip rates by age, sex, urban/rural, income, purpose, etc. all

seem to track with previous trends--they continue to decline. The declines are from trips for shopping and errands.

0.6 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6

1.72.0

1.81.6

1.3

0.4

0.40.4

0.4

0.4

1.0

1.11.1

1.0

0.9

1990 1995 2001 2009 2017

Trends in Person Trips by Purpose, 1990 to 2017

Other

Social and Recreational

School/Church

Shopping and Errands

To or From Work

4.34.1

3.8

3.40.0 Daily Trip Rate Estimate

3.8


Immobile Rates are high: Many more people are reporting no

travel on the travel day. There may be some effect here due to self-reporting—more research is needed.


Zero Trip Reports are significantly different by method:

8

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

<16 16-29 30-44 45-54 55+ Total

Per

cen

t o

f W

eigh

ted

Res

po

nd

ents

Rep

ort

ing

Zer

o T

rip

s

Trends in Immobile Rates by Age and Method of Retrieval

CPO_Web LL_Web CPO_CATI LL_CATI Margin of Error


Margin of Error

Trips per traveling person are significantly lower

for all but older travelers:

9

-

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

16-30 31-44 45-60 61-75 76+ All

Per

son

Tri

ps

per

Day

Age Group

Trends in Trips per Traveling Person

1995

2001

2009

2017


10

Trip distance was collected differently and may need an

adjustment to be comparable. This effects VMT and PMT trends. A suggested adjustment was part of STT, but does not make a significant difference.


0

10

20

30

40

50

16-24 25-34 35-44 45+ 16-24 25-34 35-44 45+

Per

Cap

ita

Veh

icle

Mil

es p

er D

ay

Average Daily VMT by People in Different Age Groups

1990

1995

2001

2009

2017

Urban Rural

Margin of Error

11

Transit trips are unaccountably high—Primarily because

of higher estimate of subway use and transit commutes. FHWA has funded research on this.

Margin of Error


12

Walk and bike trips may also not be comparable due to a

change in trip definition, and possibly under-reporting of short non-purposeful trips. More research is needed.


Margin of Error


The number of people in non-metro areas has remained about the same since 1980—population growth has gone to metro areas

14

84.5113.5

140.2169.4

192.7226.0

249.366.2

65.963.0

57.156.0

55.459.5

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Number of People in Metropolitan and Non-Metropolitan Areas (in millions)

Metro Non-Metro

Source: 1950 through 2000, " Demographic Trends in the 20th Century", Census Special Reports, by Frank Hobbs and Nicole Stoops, 11/1/2002, 2010 added by author from American Factfinder


15

1969 1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 2009 2017

The population is aging:Percent of the US Population by Age Group

Ages 35-64

Ages 20-34

Ages 5-19

Ages 65 and older


“The aging of baby boomers

means that within just a

couple decades, older people

are projected to outnumber

children for the first time in

U.S. history.

By 2035, there will be 78.0

million people 65 years and

older compared to 76.4

million under the age of 18.”

US Census Bureau, March 13, 2018

Jonathon Vespa, Release Number:

CB18-41

About 61.3 percent of the 2017 NHTS Sample Were Workers (BLS estimate is 60.4 in 2017)

16

Number of People aged 16+


Long term trends in other travel-related factors:


• Household Travel

• Person Travel

• Special Topics


Trends in Household-Based Travel

192017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends: HOUSEHOLD TRAVEL

8.9

5.7

3.83.3

10.5

6.4

4.33.6

9.7

6.0

4.13.4

9.5

5.7

3.83.0

8.6

5.1

3.42.7

Daily Person Tripsper Household

Daily Vehicle Tripsper Household

Daily Person Tripsper Person

Daily Vehicle Tripsper Driver

1990 1995 2001 2009 2017 Margin of Error

Middle- and higher-income households report lower trip making:

20

-

1,000.0

2,000.0

3,000.0

4,000.0

5,000.0

6,000.0

All LESS THAN$15,000

$15 to$24,999

$25-$34,999 $35-$49,999 $50-$74,999 $75-$99,999 $100,000AND OVER

An

nu

al P

erso

n T

rip

s p

er H

H

Trips per HH by HH Income

1990 1995 2001 2009 est. 2017 est. Margin of Error


Household VMT trends show significant declines in errands and social/rec between 2001 and 2017:

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1990 1995 2001 2009 2017

Trends in Total Household Vehicle Miles of Travel (HH VMT)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

1990 1995 2001 2009 2017

Trends in HH VMT for Shopping

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1990 1995 2001 2009 2017

Trends in HH VMT for Errands

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

1990 1995 2001 2009 2017

Trends in HH VMT for Social Recreational


VMT for the younger people (16-34) in urban areas was the same as 2009:

22

0

10

20

30

40

50

16-24 25-34 35-44 45+ 16-24 25-34 35-44 45+

Per

Cap

ita

Veh

icle

Mil

es p

er D

ay

Average Daily VMT by People in Different Age Groups

1995

2001

2009

2017

Urban Rural

2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends: PERSON TRAVEL

Since 1995, trip-making has declined significantly for all ages except over 65…

23

4.3

3.7

4.6 4.6 4.6

3.4

4.1

3.4

4.14.3

4.5

3.4

3.8

3.2

3.5

3.9

4.2

3.2

3.4

2.82.8

3.43.7

3.2

Total Under 16 16 to 20 21 to 35 36 to 65 Over 65

1995 2001 2009 2017 Margin of Error


Trends in VMT and PMT by Gender

24

28.6 26.922.3

16.7 16.8 16.0

16.414.0

17.219.0

14.7 16.8

2001 2009 2017 2001 2009 2017

Men Women

Trends in Vehicle and Non-Vehicle Miles of Travel per Day by Gender

Vehcile Miles Non-Vehicle Miles

45.040.9 39.5

35.731.5 32.8

x.x Total PMT/Day


Men and women’s travel rates have declined about the same amount:

25

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1990 1995 2001 2009 2017 1990 1995 2001 2009 2017

Men Women

Annu

al P

ers

on T

rips p

er

Pers

on

Shopping andErrands

Social andRecreational

School/Church

To or FromWork


The number of home deliveries to US households from on-line shopping doubled:

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

All No Kids Kids 5-15 Kids 16-21

Nu

mb

er o

f D

eliv

erie

s to

th

e H

ou

seh

old

Number of Deliveries in Last 30 Days by Life Cycle 2009 and 2017 NHTS

2009 Deliveries 2017 Delivieres Margin of Error

2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends: SPECIAL TOPICS

Everyone is shopping on-line more, and growth is notable in 65 and older:

27

35%43% 43%

37%31%

18%

6%

34%

53%

67% 67%59%

51%44%

25%

46%

2.1

3.53.6

2.7

2.1

1.7

0.7

2.4

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Total

Percent of People with Deliveries from On-Line Shopping in the Last 30 days

2009

2017

MeanDeliveriesin lastmonth

x.x

2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends: SPECIAL TOPICS

28

• Commute Travel• Temporal Distribution• Vehicle Use and Availability

U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, 2017 National Household Travel Survey. URL: http://nhts.ornl.gov.

The average commute in 2017 took 27.5

minutes (one-way) compared to 24,2 minutes in 2009.

An average worker who travels to and

from work five days a week spent 33 more

minutes a week commuting in 2017 compared to 2009.

2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends: Commute Travel

302017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends: TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

Midnight 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Noon 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Perc

ent

of

Vehic

le T

rips

Start Hour

Distribution of Vehicle Trips by Trip Purpose and Start Time

Commute Shopping & Errands School&Church Social&Recreational

No real signs of peak-spreading…the 2017 commutes are more peaked than previous

Autos are currently half the fleet, SUVs a growing share:

31

1977 1983 1990 1995 2001 2009 2017

Number of Vehicles by Type, in millions

Motorcycle/Moped

Pick-up

Van

SUV

Auto

120

144

165176

201211

223

xx=Total Household Vehicles (millions)

2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends: VEHICLE USE AND AVAILABILITY

Newer vehicles are less likely to be autos:

32

Van, 4.3% Pick-Up, 11.7%

Other, 0.9%MotorCycle, 1.8%

SUV, 34.8%

Car, 46.4%

Distribution of Newer Vehicles by Vehicle TypeVehicles 2 Years Old or Newer

2017 NHTS Summary of Travel Trends: VEHICLE USE AND AVAILABILITY

Questions? Comments?


Summary of Travel Trendsonlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/Conferences/2018/NHTS/Mc...30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+ Total Percent of People with

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