© World Energy Council 2015 Studies Committee Meeting Manila, 16 June 2015
© World Energy Council 2015
Launch of 2015 Trilemma report
The energy sector is ready for an
ambitious climate agreement and calls for
an international framework with a clear
measurable target for greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions that enables fair
competition and sets a clear pathway
towards low-carbon energy systems.
► Presentation at Clean Energy Ministerial (27 May)
► Presentation at Canadian Energy Summit (27 May)
► Distribution of report among all UNFCCC / INDC national
focal points
© World Energy Council 2015
2015 Energy Trilemma Index
► Uses same methodology as in
previous years
► Now covers 130 countries, Iraq
included for first time (rank 89)
► Member Committees are invited
to review and comment on
country profiles
► Member Committees are invited
to contribute to the assessment
whether country should be on
watch list
► Launch of the Index planned for
September / October 2015
2015 Rank Country (2014 rank) Balance
1 Switzerland (1) AAA
2 Sweden (2) AAA
3 Norway (3) AAB
4 United Kingdom (4) AAA
5 Austria (7) AAB
6 Denmark (5) AAB
7 Canada (6) AAC
8 France (9) AAB
9 Finland (8) AAB
10 New Zealand (10) ABB
© World Energy Council 2015
Plans for 2016 Trilemma report
► New models to compensate energy companies for the services they
provide are required as current market designs do not yet reflect
changes in energy supply and energy technology.
► Suggested 2016 topic: market designs for sustainable energy • Electricity
• Gas
• Carbon
• Transportation (fuel)
► Opportunities and challenges of energy only vs. not energy only (e.g.
capacity mechanisms, flexibility models, hybrid models)
► Relevance for OECD and non-OECD countries • Developed countries face a pressing issue as incumbent infrastructure ages and emission goals
for the energy sector are to be met
• Developing countries will have a longer timeframe for implementation but still need to think about
market design as they develop a roadmap for sustainable development
© World Energy Council 2015
Timeline update
Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016
2nd half of 2015
• Launch of 2015 Index results (TBC)
• Presentation of Index results at EA in
Ethiopia
2015 In
dex
2015 T
rile
mm
a r
ep
ort
Mid-Jun
• Approval of
2016 research
topic by
Studies
Committee
2nd half of 2015
• Review of current Index methodology
• Additional comments welcome NOW
• Identification of solutions to criticism
and enhancement opportunities
• Discussion with group of WEC experts
• Test modifications to methodology
• Invite academic institutions to join a
review board; suggestions welcome
Mid-Mar
• First review
opportunity
for Studies
Committee
Ind
ex 2
.0
Mid-Apr
• WEC Studies
Committee for
final sign-off
(1 week)
Mid-May
• Launch of
perspective at
CEM7 meeting
(TBC)
Feb-Mar
• Share modified
methodology
with academic
partners
• Additional
modifications
where
appropriate
Apr-May
• Studies
Committee to
review and
agree to
modifications
Jul
• Collect new
data
Sep-Oct
• Launch of
Index 2.0 /
2016 Index
(TBC)
© World Energy Council 2015
Global scenarios
Global trends / critical uncertainties
Techno-economic innovation
Socio-political development
Global agenda: opportunities and risks
Following the launch of the World Energy Scenarios 2013,
SSG are now focussing on the following scenario aspects
Regional scenarios
Regional impact and sensitivities
Regional market issues and priorities
Energy security, trade and investment
Country scenarios
Country supply and demand
Country risks and opportunities
Country energy policies and strategy
Business strategy and decisions
October
2016
LAC
Phase 2
February
2016
© World Energy Council 2015 9
Deep dives focussed on issues of client strategic interest
Issues of client
strategic
interest
Energy
access
Energy-water-
food nexus
Urban
challenges
Resilience LT 2060
Resources,
infrastructure,
funding
Large
hydro
Bio-
energy
E-
storage
E-
mobility
Extreme
weather
events
Cyber
attacks,
social
activism
Energy
risks
© World Energy Council 2015 10
These themes are anchored in specific regions
Issues of client
strategic
interest
Energy
access
Energy-water-
food nexus
Urban
challenges
Resilience LT 2060
Resources,
infrastructure,
funding
Large
hydro
Bio-
energy
E-
storage
E-
mobility
Extreme
weather
events
Cyber
attacks,
social
activism
Energy
risks
Regional interest
Asia & / or EU / Russia
scenarios
World 2060 scenarios
LAC & Africa scenarios
Themes
© World Energy Council 2015 11
LAC & Africa scenarios are informed by key WEC events
WEC Scenario Milestones: 2014-2016
Issues of client
strategic
interest
Energy
access
Energy-water-
food nexus
Urban
challenges
Resilience LT 2060
Resources,
infrastructure,
funding
Large
hydro
Bio-
energy
E-
storage
E-
mobility
Extreme
weather
events
Cyber
attacks,
social
activism
Energy
risks
Regional interest
2014
WELS
Latin
America
2015
WELS Africa
2015/16
WELS Asia & / or
EU /
Russia
2016
Congress
& WELS World
Asia & / or EU / Russia
scenarios
World 2060 scenarios
LAC & Africa scenarios
© World Energy Council 2015
Work Programme 2015 Study Group: 103 members from 35 countries.
Global scenario workshops
16, 17 March, London
26,27 May, London
Regional scenario workshops
IEC, 30 January, New Delhi, India
Indaba, 16 February,Johannesburg, South Africa
ADB, 16 June, Manila Philipines
Regional Deep Dives
Africa Scenario Phase 1 workshop, 18 March, London
Progress to date:
• Accenture confirmed as Scenario Project partner and leading the E-mobility and Lead Author for
the Gas KN. On-boarding, planning and co-ordination ongoing.
• WEC Jazz & Symphony scenarios included as example pathways for Global Calculator launch
in London & Beijing, 30 January.
• Electrobras, UPME and CAF secured as funders for the LAC Scenario Phase 2 study, high level
project plan compiled and discussed with Electrobras and UPME.
• Interviews for interns for Scenarios & Resources held, with one appointed full-time and two part-
time. On-boarding and training continues.
• Various presentations prepared for speakers at forums and conferences such as World Water
Forum, Daegu; Indaba; IEC; etc.
• Interviews with WEC Officers, Global Patron and Project Partners underway
© World Energy Council 2015
Process to deliver global scenarios
Sep. 2014 workshop
Critical issues for
scenarios
Subject
matter
experts
Mar. 2015 workshop
Jul. 2015 workshop
Indaba Regional worksho
p
India Regional worksho
p
Manila Regional workshop
Jazz & Symphony Scenarios lenses
Other Regional workshop
Sep 2014 Mar 2015 May 2015 Jul 2015 Sep 2015 Dec 2015 Apr 2016 Oct 2016
Fra
min
g a
nd r
esearc
h
Scenarios, Impacts and
Key Messages
Reports
Modelling Testing Develop storylines
© World Energy Council 2015 14
The Study Committee is required to:
Approve the postponement of the Africa Scenarios Phase 1 to ensure
sufficient resources are available to deliver quality LAC Phase 2 scenarios
that could serve as an example of a regional scenario deep dive. It would
further assist in making resources available for the global scenarios.9
Interviews with WEC Officers, Global Patrons and Project Partners to be completed
and analysed for global scenarios
Global scenarios framing workshop
Prototype global scenarios and additional research
Global scenario development workshop
Scoping agreement between parties on LAC scenarios Phase 2, deepening of Phase
1 work and modelling
On-boarding and training of new staff and Accenture members
First draft of E-mobility paper
Next steps
© World Energy Council 2015
Hans-Wilhelm Schiffer, Executive Chair
Manila
16 June 2015
World Energy
Resources
© World Energy Council 2015
Project Process Overview (i)
Chapter /
Issue Paper
Implications, key
messages, conclusion
Data verification, analyses,
interpretation
Survey of 93 Member
Committees
Description of topic, related
issues, impact, desktop
research
Resource
World
Energy
Resources
Report
Resource- specific
paper, (could be
published as a
‘Perspective’)
16
Coal Oil Gas Peat Uranium
and Nuclear
Hydropower Wind Solar Geothermal Bioenergy Waste Marine
Energies
Energy
Efficiency Technologies
Carbon Capture,
Utilisation and Storage
Energy Storage
Knowledge
Networks
Study
Group
Resources
Following the launch of The World Energy Resources 2013 publication,
we are now starting to launch the next set of Knowledge Networks
© World Energy Council 2015
Work Programme 2014 - 2016
Study Group: 167 members from 43 countries.
Physical meetings:
January, June, August & December 2014 in London
March 2015 in London
June 2015 in Paris
Tele-Conferences with Knowledge Networks
Held on hydropower, E-storage, bioenergy, waste-to-energy and gas
Lead author calls took place on waste-to-energy, CCUS & E-storage
Progress to date:
• Additional nominations received and on-boarded.
• Interviews for interns for Scenarios & Resources held, with one appointed full-time and
two part-time. On-boarding and training continues.
• Input and presentations for various sessions on Unconventional Gas and LNG
• Hydro Report with accompanying flyer, launched at the International Hydro Conference,
Beijing, May. Additional MC package, press releases, articles, interviews and speeches
prepared.
• Draft 1 Waste-to-Energy Chapter report done and reviewed, additional work needed.
• Accenture confirmed as Lead Author for the Gas KN, exploring possibilities for E4Tech
as Lead Author for Bioenergy.
• Exploring options to pre-populate and automate data for each country in the Resources
Survey to facilitate an easier process for the Member Committees
© World Energy Council 2015
Milestones for the next months
• Secure lead authors for outstanding resources
• Explore project partner or consultants for the data processing and analysis of
the Resources Survey
• Ensure each resource area has a relevant and useful focus area
• Determine most appropriate format to showcase work (report, presentation,
soft copy, roadmap, flyer, infographics etc.)
• Continue activities and recruitment for Knowledge Networks
• Review Resources survey and data collection process
• Refine chapter structure, focus areas and presentation formats
• Send out pre-populated and electronic Resources Survey to Member
Committees
• On-board and train new staff
• Start additional KNs and finalise individual project plans
• First draft Gas paper
• First draft E-storage paper
© World Energy Council 2015
Required from the Study Committee
Take note that:
The Resource Survey will be sent out to Member Committees at the end of
June 2015 and completed replies requested for 30 September 2015.
Additional resources would be required in order to obtain, verify and analyse
data deliver a quality product with credible and reliable data.
19
© World Energy Council 2015
Financing Resilient
Energy Infrastructure
• Katrina Kelly
Manila, 16 June 2015
© World Energy Council 2015
Financing resilient energy infrastructure
► Risk mitigation is about understanding the inputs and having the
ability to accept the uncertainties at a project level and adapt to them
► Energy infrastructure needs to be continuously adaptable to the
current environment
► Emerging risks need to be better understood:
• to enable the development of appropriate technical and design
responses and
• to understand the financial implications.
© World Energy Council 2015
How do we define resilient energy infrastructure?
► Resilience for infrastructure refers to the robustness and recovery
characteristics of energy infrastructure and operations, to avoid or
minimize interruptions of service in case of a hazardous event.
► Resilience measures for energy infrastructure are typically classified
as “hard” or “soft” measures.
• Hard resilience: “Safe-fail”; ensure infrastructure withstands
sudden impacts that can affect entire system
• Soft resilience: “Fail-safe”; Ensure infrastructure responds
quickly to sudden impacts. Accepts that part of the system may go
down
22
© World Energy Council 2015
Work focus until 2016 Congress
23
Investigating five risk
dimensions
Energy-water-food
nexus
Extreme weather
Technical efficacy
Social activism
Cyber threats
© World Energy Council 2015
Frontloaded chapter: Extreme weather – findings
Regional differences Adaptation options /
strategy
Key constraints Underlying policy and
regulatory framework
Impacts of extreme weather
vary from region to region in
terms of the type of extreme
weather events, frequency of
occurrence and impact on
energy infrastructure.
Extreme weather is any kind
of weather which is severe,
unusual, and not seasonal,
and include, storms (wintry
and tropical events), storm
surges, flooding, and erosion.
Comparing the last 5 years to
the last 20 years, the number
of extreme weather events has
increased by 40%.
Natural catastrophe-related
losses (Swiss Re):
- Asia USD 52bn
- North America USD 29bn
- Europe USD 16bn
- LAC USD 8bn
Two different approaches
that are often referred to as
“hard” - build strong enough
for the system not to go down
- and “soft” resilience -
assumption the system will
go down but is build flexible
enough to operate again
quickly.
Examples of adaptation
options include,
strengthening of overhead
transmission and distribution
infrastructure, underground
cabling for utilities or re-
routing lines, reduced
dependence on single
sources of energy, early
warning systems, distributed
energy systems, local
empowerment etc.
Limited availability of data
and information (climate risk
assessments) to support
financial modelling.
Lack of reliable data and
information delays
development and
implementation of improved
design standards.
Unlocking adaptation finance
depends on the ability to
recoup the investments made
(tariffs), currently not possible.
Access to viable alternatives.
Technological innovation.
Public acceptance of new
technologies is often low.
Lack of instruments for
transferring weather and
climate risks.
Current policy and regulation
focus on mitigation. They
provide incentives and set
standards for future.
Lack of regulatory guidance
on adaptation and how much
resilience is enough. Without
regulatory guidance
increased resilience is not
related to an additional
revenue stream and hence
less attractive for the
investor.
Financial regulation prevents
certain investor groups from
entering the market.
© World Energy Council 2015
Timeline update
Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016
Mid-June
• Deadline for
initial
comments from
Studies
Committee
• Incorporate
findings
• Share revised
draft with MCs
Early Aug
• WEC Studies
Committee for
final sign-off
(1-2 weeks)
Extr
em
e w
eath
er
Early Oct
• Launch of
perspective at
APEC event
(TBC)
En
erg
y-w
ate
r-fo
od
Early Aug
• Share initial
draft with KN,
Studies
Committee
End Oct
• Launch /
Presentation at
EA in Ethiopia
(TBC)
Early Oct
• WEC Studies
Committee for
final sign-off
(1-2 weeks)
Multi-layer review process
1. Project team
2. Knowledge Network
3. WEC Member Committees
4. WEC Studies Committees
5. Final sign-off
Next steps to be discussed at Studies Committee meeting in Ethiopia
• Cyber next front-loaded chapter to be released late Q1 2016
• For Congress work on integrated report that includes all five risk dimensions Oth
ers