Strategic and Operational Financial Planning

Strategic and Operational Financial Planning

Professor XXXXXCourse Name / Number

2

Overview of the Planning Process

Financial planning activities

• Setting long-run strategic goals• Preparing quarterly and annual

budgets• Managing day-to-day fluctuations in

cash balances

Long-term financial planning

• Invest in positive NPV projects• Added complexity: CFOs usually see

many more projects that appear to have positive NPV than they can effectively pursue, thus they must prioritize.

• Limits on capital, production capacity, human resources and other inputs add complexity as well.

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Long-Term Financial Planning

Strategic plan

• Multiyear action plan for the major investment and competitive initiatives

Senior management develops strategic plan by answering questions like:

– In what emerging markets might we have a sustainable competitive advantage?

– How can we leverage our competitive strengths across existing markets in which we currently do not compete?

– What threats to our current businesses exist, and how can we meet those threats?

– Where in the world should we produce? Where should we sell?– Can we deploy resources more efficiently by exiting certain

markets and using those resources elsewhere?

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Contribution of Finance to Strategic Planning

Financial managers draw on a broad set of skills to asses the likelihood that a given strategic objective

can be achieved.Financial tools are used to determine the feasibility of a strategic plan, given firm’s existing and prospective

sources of funding.

Finance contributes to strategic planning through risk management.

Finance has control in the implementing strategic plans.

• Financial analysts prepare cash budgets that help avoid liquidity problems.

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Sustainable Growth• Growth can be measured by increases in firm’s market value, its

asset base, the number of people it employs, increase in sales.

Increase in assets Cash Receivables Inventories Fixed Assets

Increase in Liabilities Accounts Payable Short-term debt Long-term debt

Increases in Equity Retained Earnings

= +

Trade-offs a firm faces when chooses to grow:

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Sustainable Growth Model

Models how rapidly a firm can grow

Assumption of the model:

1. The firm will issue no new shares of common stock next year.2. The firm’s total asset turnover ratio, S/A, remains constant.3. The firm pays out a constant fraction, d, of its earnings as

dividends.4. The firm maintains a constant asset-to-equity ratio, A/E.5. The firm’s net profit margin, m, is constant.

Firm wants to increase sales by g percent.

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Sustainable Growth Model

The model is used to derive the sustainable growth rate g* that keeps the sources and uses of

funds in balance.

E

Adm

S

AE

Adm

g)1(

)1(*

Increase in profit margin or assets-to-equity increase sustainable growth rate.

Increase in total asset turnover ratio has the same effect: increase in sustainable growth rate.

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Pro Forma Financial Statements

Forecasts of balance sheet and income statements

“Top-down” or “bottom-up” sales forecasts:

“Top-down” approach uses macroeconomic and industry forecast to establish sales goals.

“Bottom-up” approach forecasts sales on a customer by customer basis.

Percentage-of-sales method

• Models all items on the balance sheet and income statements to grow in proportion to sales

• One item, such as cash balance or short term liability account, is adjusted after all projections to preserve the equality of left and right hands of balance sheet.

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Balance Sheet of Zinsmeister Shoes

$116,250Total liabilities and equity$116,250Total assets

$46,550Retained earnings$60,000Net fixed assets

$20,200Common stock20,000Less: Accumulated depreciation

$20,000Long-term debt$80,000Gross fixed assets

$29,500Current liabilities$56,250Current assets

5,000Current long-term debt25,000Inventory

5,000Credit line21,250Accounts receivable

$19,500Accounts payable$10,000Cash

Liabilities and EquityAssets

Zinsmeister Shoe Balance Sheet as of December 31, 2004

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Income Statement of Zinsmeister Shoes

17,325Less: Taxes

$32,175Net income

$49,500Pretax Income

$10,000Less: Depreciation

$3,000Less: Interest Expense

$25,000Less: Operating expense

$87,500Gross Profit

162,500Less: Cost of goods sold

$250,000Sales

Zinsmeister Shoe Income Statement for the year ended December 31, 2004

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Assumptions to Generate Pro Forma Financial StatementsAssumptions:

Zinsmeister plans to increase sales by 30% next year (in 2005).

Gross profit margin will remain 35%. Operating expenses will equal 10% of sales, as in 2004. Interest rate paid on all debt is 10%. Invest additional $20 mil in fixed assets in 2005.

Depreciation expense will increase from $10 mil to $15 mil.

Tax rate is 35%. Cash holdings will increase by $1 mil next year. Accounts receivables are 8.5% of sales. Inventories equal 10% of sales. Accounts payable are 12% of cost of goods sold. Firm will repay additional $5 mil in long-term debt next

year. Firm will pay out 50% of net income as dividend.

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Pro Forma Income Statement of Zinsmeister Shoes

$41,438Net income

22,312Less: Taxes

$20,719Dividends

$63,750Pretax Income

$15,000Less: Depreciation

$2,500Less: Interest Expense

$32,500Less: Operating expense

$113,750Gross Profit

211,250Less: Cost of goods sold

$325,000Sales

Pro forma income statement

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Pro Forma Balance Sheet for Zinsmeister Shoes

Cash holdings will increase by $1 mil next year• Cash = $10 mil+ $1mil = $11 mil

Accounts receivables are 8.5% of sales• A/R = $325,000 X 0.085 = $27,625

Inventories equal 10% of sales• Inventory = $325,000 X 0.1 = $32,500

Invest additional $20 mil in fixed assets in 2005. Depreciation expense will increase from $10 mil to $15 mil• Gross fixed assets = $80 mil + $20 mil = $100 mil• Accumulated depreciation = $20 mil + $15 mil = $35 mil

Accounts payable are 12% of cost of goods sold• A/P = $211,250 X 0.12 = $25,350

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Pro Forma Balance Sheet for Zinsmeister Shoes

$136,125Total liabilities and equity$136,125Total assets

$67,269Retained earnings$65,000Net fixed assets

$20,200Common stock35,000Less: Accumulated depreciation

$15,000Long-term debt$100,000Gross fixed assets

$33,656Current liabilities$71,125Current assets

5,000Current long-term debt32,500Inventory

3,306Credit line27,625Accounts receivable

$25,350Accounts payable$11,000Cash

Liabilities and EquityAssets

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External Funds Required (EFR) for Zinsmeister Shoes

)1)(1( dgmSSS

APS

S

AEFR

Forecast of external funds required can be modeled with the following equation:

EFR for Zinsmeister is $8,111,000. In pro forma balance sheet external financing declined by $6.7 mil. Why the discrepancy?

Discrepancy arises because assets to sales ratio is actually not constant, as equation assumes.

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Short-Term Financing Strategies

Conservative strategy

• Use long-term financing to cover both permanent assets and temporary assets.

Aggressive strategy

• Use short-term financing to fund both seasonal peaks and part of long-term growth in sales and assets.

Matching strategy

• Finance permanent assets with long-term funding sources and temporary asset requirement with short-term financing.

Companies can adopt the following strategies to fund long-term trend and seasonal fluctuations of sales:

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Quarterly Sales for Hershey Foods (1992 – 2002)

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

Year

Qu

arte

rly

Sa

les

($

in m

illi

on

s)

Quarterly Sales

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Financing Strategies Available to Hershey

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

Quarters (1992-2002)

1,600

1,800

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

To

tal

As

sets

($ i

n m

illi

on

s)

Hershey’s Current Assets Matching Strategy Conservative Strategy Aggressive Strategy

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Cash Budget

Cash budget shows firm’s planned cash inflows and outflows.

Firm’s sales forecastKey input

Cash receipts • All firm’s cash inflows in a given

financial period

Cash disbursemen

ts

• All outlays of cash by the firm during a given financial period

Estimate the monthly cash flows that will result from projected sales receipts and from production-related,

inventory-related, and sales-related outlays.

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Cash ReceiptsCommon components of cash receipts: cash sales, collections of accounts receivable, and other cash

receipts

An example…• Farrell Industries develops cash receipts forecasts for

October, November, and December:– Sales in August and September: $100,000 and

$200,000– Forecasted sales for October, November, and

December: $400,000, $300,000, and $200,000– 80% of sales on credit, 20% cash sales– 50% of sales collected next month; remaining 30%

collected after two months– In December, $30,000 dividends from stock Farrell

holds in a subsidiary

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Schedule of Projected Cash Receipts for Farrell Industries

$340$320$210Total cash receipts

30Other cash receipts

1206030Two months prior (30%)

15020010050Previous month (50%)

Collection of accounts receivable

$40$60$80$40$20Cash Sales (20%)

$200$300$400$200$100Forecast Sales

DecemberNovemberOctoberSeptemberAugust

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Cash Disbursements

Cash disbursements items:

• Cash purchases, fixed asset outlays, payments of accounts payable, interest payments, and rent and lease payments

• Cash dividend payments, wages and salaries, loan principal payments, tax payments, and repurchase or retirement of stock

• Depreciation, though not included in the cash budget, does have a cash outflow effect through impact on tax payments.

• Farrell Industries uses the following assumptions to compute cash disbursements for October, November, and December:• Purchases equal 70% of sales. Paid 10% in cash; 70%

paid next month, and 20% two months after the purchase

• October purchases = 70% X $400,000 = $280,000• $28,000 paid in cash, $196,000 paid in November,

and $56,000 paid in December

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Cash Disbursements

• Rent payments: $5,000 paid each months• Wages and salaries: 10% of monthly sales plus

$8,000• October wages = 10% X $400,000 + $8,000 =

$48,000• Tax payments: $25,000 taxes paid in December• Fixed assets outlays: $130,000 in new machinery

paid in November• Interest payments: $10,000 due in December• Cash dividends payments: $20,000 dividends will

be paid in November• Principal payments: $20,000 principal payment

due in December

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Projected Cash Disbursements for Farrell Industries

555Rent payments

283848Wages and salaries

25Tax payments

130Fixed asset outlays

10Interest payments

20Cash dividend payments

$305$418$213Total cash disbursements

20Principal payments

562814Two months prior (20%)

1471969849Previous month (70%)

Payments of accounts payable

$14$21$28$14$7Cash Purchases (10%)

$140$210$280$140$70Purchases (70% of sales)

DecemberNovemberOctoberSeptemberAugust

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Net Cash Flow, Ending Cash, Financing Needs and Excess Cash

Net cash flow

• Subtract cash disbursements from cash receipts for each period.

Ending cash balance

• Add the beginning cash balance to the firm’s net cash flow.

• Farrell constructs the cash budget using the cash receipts and disbursements and the following assumptions:• Cash balance at the end of September is $50,000.• Notes payable and marketable securities are $0 at the

end of September.• $25,000 is the desired minimum cash balance.

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Cash Budget for Farrell Industries

-514750Add: Beginning cash-$16-$51$47Ending cash balance

252525Less: Minimum cash balance$41$76Required total financing (notes payable)

$22Excess cash balance (marketable securities)

$35-$98-$3Net cash flow305418213Less: Total cash disbursements

$340$320$210Total cash receipts

DecemberNovemberOctober

If cash balance is less than desired minimum cash balance, issue notes payable.

If cash balance above desired minimum cash balance, invest in short-term marketable securities.

Strategic financial plans act as a guide for preparing operating financial plans.

Sustainable growth model is a tool managers can use to determine the feasibility of a

target growth rate under certain conditions.Pro forma financial statements are projected

financial statements.Cash budgets forecast short-term cash inflows

and outflows of firm.

Strategic and Operational Financial Planning