06.11.2015 Institut für Maschinenelemente, Universität Stuttgart Technologie Transfer Initiative, Universität Stuttgart M. Sc. Martin Dazer Dipl.-Ing. Stefan Kemmler Prof. Dr.-Ing. Bernd Bertsche Institute of Machine Components Reliability Engineering Technology Transfer Initiative Dr.-Ing. Tobias Leopold Dipl.-Ing Jens Fricke Knorr-Bremse Group Systeme für Nutzfahrzeuge GmbH Robust Sensitive Virtual Lifetime Determination Durability (t-t0) 10 6 LC Failure Probability F(t) Shape parameter b Technologie Transfer Initiative STOCHASTIC SIMULATION APPROACH FOR REALISTIC LIFETIME FORECAST AND ASSURANCE OF COMMERCIAL VEHICLE BRAKING SYSTEMS 12. Weimar Optimization and Stochastic Days 2015
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STOCHASTIC SIMULATION APPROACH FOR … Lifetime Determination of commercial vehicle braking systems 9. 2015 ... Weibull Probability function of lifetime Weibull Full data –ML-Estimation
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06
.11
.20
15
Institut für Maschinenelemente, Universität Stuttgart
Technologie Transfer Initiative, Universität Stuttgart
M. Sc. Martin Dazer
Dipl.-Ing. Stefan Kemmler
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Bernd Bertsche
Institute of Machine Components
Reliability Engineering
Technology Transfer Initiative
Dr.-Ing. Tobias Leopold
Dipl.-Ing Jens Fricke
Knorr-Bremse Group
Systeme für Nutzfahrzeuge GmbH
Rob
ust
Se
nsitiv
e
Virtual
Lifetime
Determination
Durability (t-t0) 106 LC
Fa
ilu
re P
rob
ab
ilit
y F
(t)
Sh
ap
e p
ara
me
ter
b
TechnologieTransferInitiative
STOCHASTIC SIMULATION APPROACH FOR
REALISTIC LIFETIME FORECAST AND ASSURANCE
OF COMMERCIAL VEHICLE BRAKING SYSTEMS
12. Weimar Optimization and Stochastic Days 2015
06
.11
.20
15
Institut für Maschinenelemente, Universität Stuttgart
Technologie Transfer Initiative, Universität Stuttgart
Pro
f. D
r.-I
ng
. B
. B
ert
sch
e; M
. S
c. M
art
in D
aze
r
Research Cooperation
2
Rob
ust
Se
nsitiv
e
Virtual
Lifetime
Determination
Durability (t-t0) 106 LC
Fa
ilu
re P
rob
ab
ilit
y F
(t)
Sh
ap
e p
ara
me
ter
b
TechnologieTransferInitiative
06
.11
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15
Institut für Maschinenelemente, Universität Stuttgart
Technologie Transfer Initiative, Universität Stuttgart
Pro
f. D
r.-I
ng
. B
. B
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sch
e; M
. S
c. M
art
in D
aze
r
Agenda
1. Motivation
2. Application example: brake caliper
3. Simulation process
4. Design of Experiments
5. Result evaluation
6. Summary and Outlook
3
06
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Institut für Maschinenelemente, Universität Stuttgart
Technologie Transfer Initiative, Universität Stuttgart
1. MOTIVATION
Virtual Lifetime Determination of
commercial vehicle braking systems
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06
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Institut für Maschinenelemente, Universität Stuttgart
Technologie Transfer Initiative, Universität Stuttgart
Pro
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e; M
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c. M
art
in D
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Identification of specific product
properties:
Failure mechanism
Lowest and longest cycle times
Failure distribution
Control of correct target-
engineering by requirements
1. Motivation
5
Real durability tests
Systematic and
unsystematic
scattering of
lifetime
tmin
tmax
Scattering produces a
characteristic lifetime distribution
06
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Institut für Maschinenelemente, Universität Stuttgart
Technologie Transfer Initiative, Universität Stuttgart
Pro
f. D
r.-I
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. B
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sch
e; M
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c. M
art
in D
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1. Motivation
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Load cycles N (log)Str
ess A
mp
litu
de
(lo
g)
Occurring nominal load
amplitude on component
50%Endurable nominal load
amplitude in operation
Nominal load cycles Nnom (log)
cumulativedensity
Str
ess A
mp
litu
de
(lo
g)
10%
90%
10%
50%
90%
Scatter band of the load
amplitudes occur on the
component
Scatter band of endurable load
amplitudes in operation
Motivation:
Realistic lifetime prediction through
stochastic simulation of stress and
strength
Load cycles N (log)
F(t
) Scatter band of load cycles N
Stochastic
Simulation
Source: Bertsche 2004
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Institut für Maschinenelemente, Universität Stuttgart
Technologie Transfer Initiative, Universität Stuttgart
Pro
f. D
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sch
e; M
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c. M
art
in D
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1. Motivation
7
Input
Variability
Output
VariabilitySimulation
System
Parameter variations of the product lead to variations in product properties as a
result of internal correlations.
This can cause functional or structural failure and the deterioration of product
quality.
Aim: Realistic forecast of time to failure
Lifetime
06
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Institut für Maschinenelemente, Universität Stuttgart
Technologie Transfer Initiative, Universität Stuttgart
Pro
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sch
e; M
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c. M
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in D
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1. Motivation
8
Parametric CAD-Model
Mapping the caliper geometry
Changes in the geometry
FEA-Simulation model
Mapping of damage-related effects
Stress amplitudes
Strain amplitudes
Parameter study
Automatic simulation of
the established DOE
Statistical evaluation
Source: Dynardo 2015
06
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Institut für Maschinenelemente, Universität Stuttgart
Technologie Transfer Initiative, Universität Stuttgart
2. APPLICATION EXAMPLE
BRAKE CALIPER
Virtual Lifetime Determination of
commercial vehicle braking systems
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Institut für Maschinenelemente, Universität Stuttgart
Technologie Transfer Initiative, Universität Stuttgart
Pro
f. D
r.-I
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sch
e; M
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c. M
art
in D
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10
Brake caliper
Application example:
Brake caliper
Pressure
cylinder dummy
Brake discBrake pads
2. Application example Brake caliper
Piston
Piston
Have to withstand high loads in
case of overload
Therefore tested with high loads
Failures in Low-Cycle-Fatigue
range (LCF)
0,9
0,8
0,7
0,6
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,150,
10,
09
99
90
8070605040
30
20
10
5
3
2
1
Standardized lifetime
Pe
rce
nt
Shape 2,89116
Scale 0,465464
A v erage 0,414998
Stdv . 0,155908
Median 0,410044
Statistics
Probability plot for lifetime
Full data - ML-Estimation
Weibull
Probability function of lifetime
Weibull
Full data – ML-Estimation
Standardized lifetime
Pe
rce
nt
06
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Institut für Maschinenelemente, Universität Stuttgart
Technologie Transfer Initiative, Universität Stuttgart
3. SIMULATION PROCESS
Virtual Lifetime Determination of
commercial vehicle braking systems
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06
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Institut für Maschinenelemente, Universität Stuttgart
Technologie Transfer Initiative, Universität Stuttgart