Stevenson f 22 brief

June 2006 © James P. Stevenson 2006 1

F-22 Fighter Performance

How does the F-22A compare a quarter century later?

By James P. Stevenson

Sponsored bythe Straus Military Reform Project

of theCenter for Defense Information


Great fighter characteristics

Obtain the first sightingOutnumber the enemy in the airOutmaneuver to gain firingpositionAchieve split second quick kills


F-22A replaces F-15


Why question Air Force?

Sprey’s summary is inconsistentwith what the senior Air Forcemanagement says we needAfter all …


Generals know best


Prepared for Pearl Harbor


So heavily armored …


and so heavily armed …


…fighters not needed…


… that bombers couldfly with impunity…


… reach their targets…

Such as theAugust 17, 1943raid onSchweinfurt,Germany


…and destroy Germanwar-making capabilities


But anti-aircraft was harsh,


Reality was harsher


The promised “so heavilyarmed and armored”


Air Force offered the P-47

Compared to theP-51, the P-47

Weighed twice asmuchCost twice andmuchCould not fly withbombers to theirtargets


P-51 imposed by FDR


As for destroying thewar-making capabilities


“Hap” Arnold assured us:No need to re-attack

“All five of the works at Schweinfurtwere either completely or almostcompletely wiped out. Our attackwas the most perfect example inhistory of accurate distribution ofbombs over a target. It was an attackthat will not have to be repeated fora very long time, if at all.”

Chief of Staff of the U.S. Army Air Forces, General H. H. "Hap" Arnold, said shortly afterthe first deep bomber raid on Germany


Reality: raids continuedFor another 20 monthswith 22 bombing raids,2,285 bombers,dropping 592,598 bombsuntil 10 April 1945Ball bearing plants werethe only targets, but AirForce destroyed 50% ofhomesQuestioning senior AirForce decisions doesn’tseem unreasonable





Obtain first sighting

Topgun surveyWhat single advantage would you like

• Longer range missile• Longer range radar, etc.

Air Force position“First look, first shoot, first kill.”


The first sighting,electronically


F-4B: Guns not required


Radars ~ equal range


SecDef Perry:F-22 invisible to radars

"And [the F-22’s] biggest distinctiveadvantage over the F-15 or any otherairplane in the inventory today isthat it cannot be seen by the radars,either the ground-to-air defensesystem or the radars that drive theair-to-air missiles.”

William Perry, “Defense Department Budget Briefing.” (7 Feb.1994): A1, A-10.


F-117 “invisible”

Secretary ofDefense Perrymade similarremarks aboutthe F-117 asbeing invisibleto radar


Stealth in combat

F-117 had higher loss rate thanF-16 in Serbian air war2 F-117s hit from 1950s technology

(1 loss, 1 out of action)

However advanced, “stealth” aircrafthave to emit radar if enemy aircraftis running silent


Who do you want to bein a dark alley…

… the cop with the flashlight or the crook with a gun that fires light-homing bullets?


Radar-homing missile

AIM-7N anti-radiation missile used inDesert StormRussian’s have the R-27P, the newer R-77P,and a rumored R-77T anti-radiation missile


Russian R-27P for sale


F-22 rebuttal:Frequency hopping


Radars on or off?

Some assert that in the next airwar, all the radars will be off andthe air war will merge to aircombat maneuveringThis is what has happened in allprevious wars


The return of the dogfight


First sight wins the fight


“The biggest target in the sky,is always the first to die.”


F-22s are seen first


You didn’t see that?

Not invisible but not the first to be seen


Rearward visibility

In all air wars, 65-95% of pilotsnever saw who shot themIs the F-22 a step forward?

(What about the F-35 Joint StrikeFighter?)


Rearward visibilitypre-World War 2


Visibility after combat


Forgotten lessons

Dogfights a thing of the pastSmooth canopy to help top speed


F-22: a step forward?


Technology vs visibility

Rearwardvisibilitysacrificed forstealth


F-16 cockpit visibility


Rearward visibility trend

Rearward visibility sacrificed fortechnology





Analysis without numbers


The effect of numbers

An increase in the total numberof aircraft in aerial combat drivesthe exchange ratio toward parityAIMVAL experience

1 v 1 (2 airplanes in the sky)• 3.8-to-1

4 v 4 (8 airplanes in the sky)• ~ 1-to-1


Aircraft enemy seesfor equal cost

Aircraft for equal cost X

Sortie Rate =

Available Aircraft for Equal Cost

F-22A 1 0.7 0.7

F-15C 3.4 1 3.4

F-16C 9.7 1.2 11.7

Source: Sorties rates come from Operation Desert Storm: Evaluation of the Air Campaign (GAO/NSIAD-97-134 (Washington, D.C.:General Accounting Office, June 1997) pp. 166, 169. Aircraft costs for F-22A come from December Selected Acquisition Reports.


Effect of numbersMe 262 had 100knots advantage incruise speed overP-51P-51 numbersovercametechnologyNumbers increaseprobability ofgetting the first shot


Missiles for equal cost


Vietnam AIM-7 promise

AIM-7 promisedProbability ofKill (PK)

80-90 percent

~ 8-9 out of 10

Vietnam actualkill rate

9.6 percent

~ 1 out of 10


F-22 claimedprobability of kill

The recent tests between F-15s andF-22s used a 0.65 probability of kill(PK) for the AMRAAM missile kills

Justification based on 1991 Iraqi combat

However, radar missile kills wereAIM-7Ms, not AMRAAMs.PK was .34 against non-maneuveringtargets


Friend from Foe

IFF has always been the weak linkIn every war since WWII, we’ve been told theIFF would workBut forces turned them off to avoid beingtracked

Assertion today is that it is fixedEvidence that F-15s in 1991 Iraq war hadautonomous right to fire beyond visualrange (BVR) from own electronics


Within visual range

AIM-9X


What about the AIM-82?

The AIM-9X of its dayClaimed: 955-to-1 kill-loss ratio

Used to sell the F-15

Reality: cancelled due to total failureThe IR missile may be improved butAir Force has screwed up the gun byrequiring a trap door to open prior tofiring it





Fighter characteristics

Acceleration, maneuverability,and persistence are fundamentalcharacteristics to gaining a firingsolution


Input to acceleration

Higher thrust-to-weight ratio, betteracceleration


F-22A and F-15A weights


Thrust-to-weight compared


Acceleration time 0.8-1.2


Input to maneuverability

Lower wing loading, bettermaneuverability


Wing loadings compared


Input to persistence

Higher fuel fraction, greaterpersistence and/or range


Fuel fraction contributesto range and persistenceFuel Fraction


Fuel fraction 0.72Voyager around-the-world non-stop


1955 F-8 fuel fraction 0.30


2006 F-22 fuel fraction 0.275


F-22 and F-15 cruiseand maximum speed

F-22 F-15

SupersonicSubsonic

0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 2.0

Mach Numbers

10K

20K

30K

40K

50K

60K

Alt

itud

e

Cessna Citation 0.92


F-22 miles per pound of fuel

Cannot supercruiseabove this altitudewithout afterburner

Requires Afterburner





Split-second kills.50 caliber of World WarII had quicker:

Time to first shot

Time of flight

Cumulative lethality

Today’s 20mm hasLonger start up time

Less range

Longer time to target than20mm of World War II

P-51 .50 caliber gun and 400 rounds


Split-second killsF-22 requires gun door toopen

M61A2 requires 1/2 secondstart up time

Missiles require 10-15seconds electronicacquisition time forcooperative threat

After acquired, missilelaunch requires openingmissile bay doors


To justify the F-22

Radar missile PK used to justifyF-22 requires leap of faith—

That combat PK will equal predictions• It never has

That IFF will work• It never has (even AWACS can’t tell a Hind from a Blackhawk)

That enemy will not fire an anti-radiationmissiles

• Russians are not selling anti-radiation missiles to our allies

That frequency-hopping radar will defeatanti-radiation missile


Ignore its weaknesses

F-22 does not have rearwardvisibility, acceleration,maneuverability, or persistence ofprevious era fightersF-22 costs prevent the purchase ofadequate numbers

Original requirement was for 750 butincreasing program acquisition unit cost of 3 for $1 billion, gives the Air Force . . .


In round numbers,for equal $$$

F-22190 airplanesWeapons

• 1,140 AMRAAM missiles• 280 heat-seeking

missiles• 190 guns

Sustained sortierates of 133 F-22s

F-161,800 airplanesWeapons

• 7,200 AMRAAM missiles• 3,600 heat-seeking

missiles• 1,800 guns

Sustained sortierates of 2,160 F-16s

Stevenson f 22 brief

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