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1. Stay Ahead of the Shift: What Product-Centric Publishers Can
Do to Flourish in a Community-Centric Web World BEA, 28 May 2009
Mike Shatzkin
2. The fundamental premises:
3.
Things will change
The fundamental premises:
4.
It is necessary to have a view of the future to anticipate
change
The fundamental premises:
5.
The market and how you reach it will shift in some ways between
when you sign titles and publish them for the foreseeable
future
The fundamental premises:
6.
You must try new things: it is as important to be nimble and
opportunistic as it is to be analytical when you do
The fundamental premises:
7.
For maximum benefit: new things should be tried within a
framework of understanding (your view of the future)
The fundamental premises:
8. A lot happens in 20 years
9.
TV 1968-1988 :
Broadcast networks go from totally dominant to highly
challenged
In 20 Years
10.
Music 1980-2000:
Record companies fat from sales of new formats to a total
breakdown of the business model
In 20 Years
11.
Newspapers 1989-2009:
From stable cash cows thanks primarily to classified to
endangered species
In 20 Years
12.
Mass-market paperbacks 1975-1995: from multi million dollar
bestseller advances to category strugglers
In 20 Years
13.
Online access 1989-2009:
From klunky dial-up through a closed online network to the
Internet in your hand
In 20 Years
14.
Books 1989-2009:
From pre-Internet, pre-POD, pre-long tail, pre-SUPERSTORES to
now
In 20 Years
15.
Books 2009-2029:
Thats what we need to think about today
In 20 Years
16. A point of view: the world of content in 20 years
17.
All in the cloud ; piracy and license control no longer a
problem (DRM obsolete); almost all file access of any kind is
tethered
20 Years from now
18.
We are all both licensors and licensees
20 Years from now
19.
Access through multiple devices/screens (synonymous)
20 Years from now
20.
Nugget (more granular) and niche organization for everything:
search, content, social community combined
20 Years from now
21.
Format- specific publishing gives way to format -agnostic
publishing
20 Years from now
22.
Community gateways, portals, upstream aggregates
20 Years from now
23.
Crowd-sourced content; crowd-sourced editing and curation
20 Years from now
24.
Professional and personal super-editing and super-curation
Supporting multiple models: print books, ebooks, and new
forms
The Transition
56.
Legacy content (yours and everybody elses) all being
digitized
The Transition
57.
Legacy content (yours and everybody elses) all being tagged and
organized
The Transition
58.
Digitizing of rights databases could be more expensive than
digitizing content itself!
The Transition
59.
New screens, platforms, channels proliferate and all create
some level of expense
The Transition
60.
Digital natives inventing a future (social networking, uses of
links, redefining roles, determining formats of presentation,
feedback, mixing of media)
The Transition
61. Things that happen during this transition
62.
Lines blur among newspapers, magazines, books, games
Things that happen during the transition
63.
Content finds markets and pricing models; markets find (and
create and promote) content
Things that happen during the transition
64.
Access to audiences remains the key: NY Times and B&N were
; Google and Amazon are ; Facebook and Twitter to be ? For how
long?
Things that happen during the transition
65.
Darwinian processes (with a boost from technology) create
vertical clusters (and do you know Ning?)
Things that happen during the transition
66.
The old model still works; just for fewer titles (and fewer
general trade publishers and fewer bookstores)
Things that happen during the transition
67. Back to the present and near future: change we can
feel
68.
Soon: one bookstore chain exacerbates critical mass issues
Change we can feel
69.
Soon: five, then four, then X general trade publishers
Soon: one bookstore chain exacerbates critical mass issues
Change we can feel
70.
Mass market events: fewer in number, faster to cycle, and
shorter in duration (and not just for books)
Change we can feel
71.
Niche- and self-publishing and blogs as a farm system: will
become standard practice
Change we can feel
72.
More and more paper books short run and POD
Change we can feel
73.
Ebooks increasingly have content edge: more of it and more
timely
Change we can feel
74.
More difficult to launch new titles
Change we can feel
75.
Harder to sustain backlist
Change we can feel
76.
From stable to ever-changing marketing vehicles
Change we can feel
77.
Indispensability of social networks as word-of-mouth
device
Change we can feel
78. What pushes (or nudges) publishers to vertical
79.
Necessity (horizontal marketing and sales channels
diminish)
What pushes publishers
80.
New marketing opportunities arising on the web
What pushes publishers
81.
Costs skyrocket marketing outside known niches
What pushes publishers
82.
Natural development of in-niche relationships
What pushes publishers
83.
Web sites as a market for content further drive vertical
aggregation (across publishers)
What pushes publishers
84. Remembering our own fundamentals: what does a publisher do
?
85.
Connects content to markets (20 th century)
What does a publisher do?
86.
Connects databases to networks (21 st century)
What does a publisher do?
87.
Understands communities of content consumers: what they want
and how to reach them
What does a publisher do?
88.
Recognizes creative possibilities in not-fully-developed
ideas
What does a publisher do?
89.
Coordinates the disparate activities necessary to connect a
creator to an audience; sometimes to connect creators to each
other
What does a publisher do?
90.
Manages a massive amount of detail
What does a publisher do?
91. The publishers position today to get to tomorrow: pros and
cons
92.
books are ultimate niche products
publishers are trained niche marketers
skilled at content creation, development
can put a souvenir on the shelf
can target-distribute URLs
Pros:
93.
product- and book-centricity
not continuous
(most) not vertically focused
lack resources to experiment
lack a culture of technology or a culture of
experimentation
Cons:
94. What we said when we started:
Were in an era of rapid change
We must experiment and re-invent
Do that within a framework created by a view of the future
95.
The view of the future presented here: Move toward vertical and
community
96. So whats a publishers 21 st century action plan?
97.
First and foremost:
understand yourself vertically!
(BISAC, Special Sales)
The Publishers 21 st Century Plan
98.
When you know what your verticals are (or might be):
research your vertical web world
The Publishers 21 st Century Plan
99.
Construct business metrics and track financials by
verticals
The Publishers 21 st Century Plan
100.
Have a sensible Web strategy: 1 presence for B2B; at least 1
for each vertical
The Publishers 21 st Century Plan
101.
Create a complete email list strategy: vertical-sensitive and
with an author-facing component
The Publishers 21 st Century Plan
102.
Over time: reshuffle your publishing portfolio
The Publishers 21 st Century Plan
103.
Over time: maximize cumulative effects of web marketing
efforts
The Publishers 21 st Century Plan
104.
Over time: construct alliances that will enable new businesses
and new business models
The Publishers 21 st Century Plan
105.
And if this doesnt work for you, create another view of the
future that does!