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Statistical Modelling Chapter 1 VII. Factorial experiments VII.ADesign of factorial experiments VII.BAdvantages of factorial experiments VII.CAn example two-factor CRD experiment VII.DIndicator-variable models and estimation for factorial experiments VII.EHypothesis testing using the ANOVA method for factorial experiments VII.FTreatment differences VII.GNested factorial structures VII.HModels and hypothesis testing for three-factor experiments
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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 1 VII. Factorial experiments VII.ADesign of factorial experiments VII.BAdvantages of factorial experiments VII.CAn example.

Dec 27, 2015

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Page 1: Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 1 VII. Factorial experiments VII.ADesign of factorial experiments VII.BAdvantages of factorial experiments VII.CAn example.

Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 1

VII. Factorial experiments

VII.A Design of factorial experiments

VII.B Advantages of factorial experiments

VII.C An example two-factor CRD experiment

VII.D Indicator-variable models and estimation for factorial experiments

VII.E Hypothesis testing using the ANOVA method for factorial experiments

VII.F Treatment differences

VII.G Nested factorial structures

VII.H Models and hypothesis testing for three-factor experiments

Page 2: Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 1 VII. Factorial experiments VII.ADesign of factorial experiments VII.BAdvantages of factorial experiments VII.CAn example.

Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 2

Factorial experiments• Often be more than one factor of interest to the

experimenter. • Definition VII.1: Experiments that involve more than one

randomized or treatment factor are called factorial experiments.

• In general, the number of treatments in a factorial experiment is the product of the numbers of levels of the treatment factors.

• Given the number of treatments, the experiment could be laid out as – a Completely Randomized Design, – a Randomized Complete Block Design or – a Latin Square

with that number of treatments. • BIBDs or Youden Squares are not suitable.

Page 3: Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 1 VII. Factorial experiments VII.ADesign of factorial experiments VII.BAdvantages of factorial experiments VII.CAn example.

Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 3

VII.ADesign of factorial experiments

a) Obtaining a layout for a factorial experiment in R• Layouts for factorial experiments can be

obtained in R using expressions for the chosen design when only a single-factor is involved.

• Difference with factorial experiments is that the several treatment factors are entered.

– Their values can be generated using fac.gen.• fac.gen(generate, each=1, times=1,

order="standard")• It is likely to be necessary to use either the

each or times arguments to generate the replicate combinations.

• The syntax of fac.gen and examples are given in Appendix B, Randomized layouts and sample size computations in R.

Page 4: Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 1 VII. Factorial experiments VII.ADesign of factorial experiments VII.BAdvantages of factorial experiments VII.CAn example.

Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 4

Example VII.1 Fertilizing oranges

• Suppose an experimenter is interested in investigating the effect of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizer on yield of oranges.

• Investigate 3 levels of Nitrogen (viz 0,30,60 kg/ha) and 2 levels of Phosphorus (viz. 0,20 kg/ha).

• The yield after six months was measured.• Treatments are all possible combinations of the

3 Nitrogen 2 Phosphorus levels: 32 = 6 treatments.• The treatment combinations, arranged in standard order,

are:

Treatment N P 1 0 0 2 0 20 3 30 0 4 30 20 5 60 0 6 60 20

Page 5: Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 1 VII. Factorial experiments VII.ADesign of factorial experiments VII.BAdvantages of factorial experiments VII.CAn example.

Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 5

Generating a layout in R for a CRD with 3 reps

> #> # CRD> #> n <- 18> CRDFac2.unit <- list(Seedling = n)> CRDFac2.ran <- fac.gen(list(N = c(0, 30, 60), P = c(0,

20)), times = 3)> CRDFac2.lay <- fac.layout(unrandomized = CRDFac2.unit, + randomized = CRDFac2.ran, seed = 105)> remove("CRDFac2.unit“, "CRDFac2.ran")

Specifies units indexed by Seedling with 18 levels.

Creates 3 copies of the levels combinations of N and P, with 3 and 2 levels; stores these in the data.frame CRDFac2.ran.

Does CRD randomization

Remove excess objects

Page 6: Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 1 VII. Factorial experiments VII.ADesign of factorial experiments VII.BAdvantages of factorial experiments VII.CAn example.

Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 6

The layout> CRDFac2.lay Units Permutation Seedling N P1 1 2 1 30 202 2 18 2 0 03 3 4 3 30 04 4 5 4 30 05 5 7 5 30 206 6 12 6 30 07 7 15 7 60 08 8 13 8 0 09 9 6 9 60 010 10 1 10 60 011 11 10 11 30 2012 12 16 12 60 2013 13 8 13 0 2014 14 14 14 0 2015 15 3 15 0 016 16 11 16 60 2017 17 9 17 60 2018 18 17 18 0 20

Page 7: Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 1 VII. Factorial experiments VII.ADesign of factorial experiments VII.BAdvantages of factorial experiments VII.CAn example.

Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 7

What about an RCBD?

• Suppose we decide on a RCBD with three blocks — how many units per block would be required?

• Answer 6. • In factorial experiments not limited to two factors• Thus we may have looked at Potassium at 2

levels as well. How many treatments in this case?

• Answer 322 =12.

Page 8: Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 1 VII. Factorial experiments VII.ADesign of factorial experiments VII.BAdvantages of factorial experiments VII.CAn example.

Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 8

VII.BAdvantages of factorial experiments

a)Interaction in factorial experiments• The major advantage of factorial experiments is

that they allow the detection of interaction.• Definition VII.2: Two factors are said to interact

if the effect of one, on the response variable, depends upon the level of the other.

• If they do not interact, they are said to be independent.

• To investigate whether two factors interact, the simple effects are computed.

Page 9: Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 1 VII. Factorial experiments VII.ADesign of factorial experiments VII.BAdvantages of factorial experiments VII.CAn example.

Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 9

Effects• Definition VII.3: A simple effect, for the means

computed for each combination of at least two factors, is the difference between two of these means having different levels of one of the factors but the same levels for all other factors.

• We talk of the simple effects of a factor for the levels of the other factors.

• If there is an interaction, compute an interaction effect from the simple effects to measure the size of the interaction

• Definition VII.4: An interaction effect is half the difference of two simple effects for two different levels of just one factor (or is half the difference of two interaction effects).

• If there is not an interaction, can separately compute the main effects to see how each factor affects the response.

• Definition VII.5: A main effect of a factor is the difference between two means with different levels of that factor, each mean having been formed from all observations having the same level of the factor.

Page 10: Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 1 VII. Factorial experiments VII.ADesign of factorial experiments VII.BAdvantages of factorial experiments VII.CAn example.

Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 10

Example VII.2 Chemical reactor experiment

• Investigate the effect of catalyst and temperature on the yield of chemical from a chemical reactor.

• Table of means from the experiment was as follows:

Temperature (°C) 160 180 A 60 72

Catalyst B 52 64

• For A the temperature effect is 7260 12• For B the temperature effect is 6452 12• These are called the simple effects of temperature.• Clearly, the difference between (effect of) the

temperatures is independent of which catalyst is used.• Interaction effect: [12 12]/2 0

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 11

Illustrate using an interaction plot

• A set of parallel lines indicates no interaction

Effects of catalyst and temperature on yield- no interaction

Temperature

Yield

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

150 160 170 180 190

A

B

Page 12: Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 1 VII. Factorial experiments VII.ADesign of factorial experiments VII.BAdvantages of factorial experiments VII.CAn example.

Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 12

Interaction & independence are symmetrical in factors

• Thus,– the simple catalyst effect at 160°C is 5260 8– the simple catalyst effect at 180°C is 6472 8

• Thus the difference between (effect of) the catalysts is independent of which temperature is used.

• Interaction effect is still 0 and factors are additive.

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 13

Conclusion when independent• Can consider each factor separately.• Looking at overall means will indicate what is happening in

the experiment. Temperature (°C)

160 180

Mean 56 68

• So differences between the means in these tables are the main effects of the factors.

– That is, the main effect of Temperature is 12 and that of Catalyst is 8.

• Having used 2-way table of means to work out that there is no interaction, abandon it for summarizing the results.

Catalyst A B

Mean 66 58

Page 14: Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 1 VII. Factorial experiments VII.ADesign of factorial experiments VII.BAdvantages of factorial experiments VII.CAn example.

Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 14

Example VII.3 Second chemical reactor experiment

• Suppose results from experiment with 2nd reactor as follows:

Temperature (°C) 160 180 A 60 72

Catalyst B 52 83

• The simple temperature effect for A is 7260 12• The simple temperature effect for B is 8352 31 • Difference between (effect of) temperatures depends on

which catalyst is used.• Statement symmetrical in 2 factors — say 2 factors

interact. (also dependent or nonadditive)

Page 15: Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 1 VII. Factorial experiments VII.ADesign of factorial experiments VII.BAdvantages of factorial experiments VII.CAn example.

Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 15

Interaction plot

• Clearly an interaction as lines have different slopes.

• So cannot use overall means.

Effects of catalyst and temperature on yield- interaction

Temperature

Yield

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

150 160 170 180 190

A

B

Page 16: Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 1 VII. Factorial experiments VII.ADesign of factorial experiments VII.BAdvantages of factorial experiments VII.CAn example.

Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 16

Why using overall means is inappropriate• Overall means are: • Main effects:

– cannot be equal to simple effects as these differ

– have no practical interpretation.

• Look at means for the combinations of the factors

Temperature (°C) 160 180

Mean 56 77.5 Catalyst

A B

Mean 66 67.5

Temperature (°C) 160 180 A 60 72

Catalyst B 52 83

• Interaction effect:

[(7260) (8352)]/2 [12 31]/2 = 9.5

or [(5260) (8372)]/2

= [8 9]/2 = 9.5. • two non-interacting factors

is the simpler

Page 17: Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 1 VII. Factorial experiments VII.ADesign of factorial experiments VII.BAdvantages of factorial experiments VII.CAn example.

Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 17

b) Advantages over one-factor-at-a-time experiments

• Sometimes suggested better to keep it simple and investigate one factor at a time.

• However, this is wrong.• Unable to determine whether or not there is an interaction.• Take temperature-catalyst experiment at 2nd reactor.

Experiment 1 Temperature (°C) 160 180 A 60 ?

Experiment 2 Catalyst B 52 83

• WELL YOU HAVE ONLY APPLIED THREE OF THE FOUR POSSIBLE COMBINATIONS OF THE TWO FACTORS

• Catalyst A at 180°C has not been tested but catalyst B at 160°C has been tested twice as indicated above.

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 18

Limitation of inability to detect interaction• The results of the experiments would indicate

that:– temperature increases yield by 31 gms– the catalysts differ by 8 gms in yield.

• If we presume the factors act additively, predict the yield for catalyst A at 160°C to be:– 60+31 = 83 + 8 = 91.

• This is quite clearly erroneous.• Need the factorial experiment to determine if

there is an interaction.

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 19

Same resources but more info• Exactly the same total amount of resources are involved

in the two alternative strategies, assuming the number of replicates is the same in all the experiments.

• In addition, if the factors are additive then the main effects are estimated with greater precision in factorial experiments.

• In the one-factor-at-a time experiments– the effect of a particular factor is estimated as the difference

between two means each based on r observations.• In the factorial experiment

– the main effects of the factors are the difference between two means based on 2r observations

– which represents a sqrt(2) increase in precision. • The improvement in precision will be greater for more

factors and more levels

Page 20: Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 1 VII. Factorial experiments VII.ADesign of factorial experiments VII.BAdvantages of factorial experiments VII.CAn example.

Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 20

Summary of advantages of factorial experiments

if the factors interact, factorial experiments allow this to be detected and estimates of the interaction effect can be obtained, and

if the factors are independent, factorial experiments result in the estimation of the main effects with greater precision.

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 21

VII.C An example two-factor CRD experiment

• Modification of ANOVA: instead of a single source for treatments, will have a source for each factor and one for each possible combinations of factors.

Page 22: Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 1 VII. Factorial experiments VII.ADesign of factorial experiments VII.BAdvantages of factorial experiments VII.CAn example.

Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 22

a) Determining the ANOVA table for a two-Factor CRD

1. Observational unit – a unit

2. Response variable– Y

3. Unrandomized factors– Units

4. Randomized factors– A, B

5. Type of study– Two-factor CRD

b) The experimental structure

Structure Formula unrandomized n Units randomized a A*b B

a) Description of pertinent features of the study

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 23

c) Sources derived from the structure formulae• Units = Units• A*B = A + B + A#B

d) Degrees of freedom and sums of squares

• Hasse diagrams for this study with – degrees of freedom– M and Q matrices

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 24

e) The analysis of variance table

Source df SSq

Units n 1 UY Q Y

A a 1 AY Q Y

B b 1 BY Q Y

A#B (a 1)(b 1) ABY Q Y

Residual ab(r 1) ResUY Q Y

Page 25: Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 1 VII. Factorial experiments VII.ADesign of factorial experiments VII.BAdvantages of factorial experiments VII.CAn example.

Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 25

f) Maximal expectation and variation models

• Assume the randomized factors are fixed and that the unrandomized factor is a random factor.

• Then the potential expectation terms are A, B and AB.

• The variation term is: Units. • The maximal expectation model is

– = E[Y] = AB

• and the variation model is– var[Y] = Units

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 26

g) The expected mean squares • The Hasse diagrams, with contributions to

expected mean squares, for this study are:

Page 27: Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 1 VII. Factorial experiments VII.ADesign of factorial experiments VII.BAdvantages of factorial experiments VII.CAn example.

Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 27

ANOVA table with E[MSq]

Source df SSq E[MSq]

Units n 1 UY Q Y

A a 1 AY Q Y 2U Aq

B b 1 BY Q Y 2U Bq

A#B (a 1)(b 1) ABY Q Y 2U ABq

Residual ab(r 1) ResUY Q Y 2

U

Page 28: Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 1 VII. Factorial experiments VII.ADesign of factorial experiments VII.BAdvantages of factorial experiments VII.CAn example.

Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 28

b) Analysis of an exampleExample VII.4 Animal survival experiment• To demonstrate the analysis I will use the example from

Box, Hunter and Hunter (sec. 7.7). Treatment

1 2 3 4 I 0.31 0.82 0.43 0.45 0.45 1.10 0.45 0.71 0.46 0.88 0.63 0.66 0.43 0.72 0.76 0.62 II 0.36 0.92 0.44 0.56 Poison 0.29 0.61 0.35 1.02

0.40 0.49 0.31 0.71 0.23 1.24 0.40 0.38 III 0.22 0.30 0.23 0.30 0.21 0.37 0.25 0.36 0.18 0.38 0.24 0.31 0.23 0.29 0.22 0.33

• In this experiment three poisons and four treatments (antidotes) were investigated.

• The 12 combinations of poisons and treatments were applied to animals using a CRD and the survival times of the animals measured (10 hours).

Page 29: Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 1 VII. Factorial experiments VII.ADesign of factorial experiments VII.BAdvantages of factorial experiments VII.CAn example.

Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 29

A. Description of pertinent features of the study

1. Observational unit – an animal

2. Response variable– Survival Time

3. Unrandomized factors– Animals

4. Randomized factors– Treatments, Poisons

5. Type of study– Two-factor CRD

B. The experimental structureStructure Formula unrandomized 48 Animals randomized 3 Poisons*4 Treatments

• These are the steps that need to be performed before R is used to obtain the analysis.

• The remaining steps are left as an exercise for you.

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 30

Interaction plot

• There is some evidence of an interaction in that the traces for each level of Treat look to be different.

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

Poison

me

an

of

Su

rv.T

ime

1 2 3

Treat

2431

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 31

Hypothesis test for the example

Step 1: Set up hypotheses

a) H0: there is no interaction between Poison andTreatment

H1: there is an interaction between Poison and Treatment

b) H0: 1 2 3

H1: not all population Poison means are equal

c) H0: 1 2 3 4

H1: not all population Treatment means are equal

Set 0.05.

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 32

Hypothesis test for the example (continued)Step 2: Calculate test statistics• The ANOVA table for a two-factor CRD, with

random factors being the unrandomized factors and fixed factors the randomized factors, is:

Source df SSq MSq E[MSq] F Prob

Animals 47 3.0051

Poison 2 1.0330 0.5165 2A Pq 23.22 <.000

Treatment 3 0.9212 0.3071 2A Tq 13.81 <.001

Poison#Treat 6 0.2501 0.0417 2A PTq 1.87 0.112

Residual 36 0.8007 0.0222 2A

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 33

Hypothesis test for the example (continued)

Step 3: Decide between hypothesesInteraction of Poison and Treatment is not significant, so there is no interaction.Both main effects are highly significant,so both factors affect the response.More about models soon.

• Also, it remains to perform the usual diagnostic checking.

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 34

VII.DIndicator-variable models and estimation for factorial experiments

• The models for the factorial experiments will depend on the design used in assigning the treatments — that is, CRD, RCBD or LS.

• The design will determine the unrandomized factors and the terms to be included involving those factors.

• They will also depend on the number of randomized factors.

• Let the total number of observations be n and the factors be A and B with a and b levels, respectively.

• Suppose that the combinations of A and B are each replicated r times — that is, n = abr.

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 35

a) Maximal model for two-factor CRD experiments

• The maximal model used for a two-factor CRD experiment, where the two randomized factors A and B are fixed, is:

2AB AB U and nE Y X V I

where

Y is the n-vector of random variables for the response variable observations,

() is the ab-vector of parameters for the A-B combinations,

XAB is the nab matrix giving the combinations of A and B

that occurred on each unit, i.e. X matrix for AB,

is the variability arising from different units.2U

• Our model also assumes Y ~ N(AB, V)

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 36

Standard order• Expression for X matrix in terms of direct

products of Is and 1s when A and B are in standard order.

• Previously used standard order — general definition in notes.

• The values of the k factors A1, A2, …, Ak with a1, a2, …, ak levels, respectively, are systematically ordered in a hierarchical fashion:– they are ordered according to A1, then A2, then A3, …

and then Ak.• Suppose, the elements of the Y vector are

arranged so that the values of the factors A, B and the replicates are in standard order, as for a systematic layout.

• Then AB a b r X I I 1

Page 37: Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 1 VII. Factorial experiments VII.ADesign of factorial experiments VII.BAdvantages of factorial experiments VII.CAn example.

Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 37

Example VII.5 22 Factorial experiment

• Suppose A and B have 2 levels each and that each combination of A and B has 3 replicates.

• Hence, a b 2, r 3 and n 12. • Then 11 12 21 22

• Now Y is arranged so that the values of A, B and the reps are in standard order — that is

111 112 113 121 122 123 211 212 213 221 222 223Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

AB

A 1 1 2 2

B 1 2 1 2

1 0 0 01 0 0 01 0 0 00 1 0 00 1 0 00 1 0 0 0 0 1 00 0 1 00 0 1 00 0 0 10 0 0 10 0 0 1

X

• Then AB 2 2 3 X I I 1

• so that XAB for 4 level AB is:

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 38

Example VII.5 22 Factorial experiment (continued)

• For the maximal model,

11

11

11

12

11 12

12 12AB AB

21 21

22 21

21

22

22

22

1 0 0 01 0 0 01 0 0 00 1 0 00 1 0 00 1 0 00 0 1 00 0 1 00 0 1 00 0 0 10 0 0 10 0 0 1

E

Y X

• That is, the maximal model allows for a different response for each combination of A and B.

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 39

b) Alternative expectation models — marginality-compliant modelsRule VII.1: The set of expectation models

corresponds to the set of all possible combinations of potential expectation terms, subject to restriction that terms marginal to another expectation term are excluded from the model;

• it includes the minimal model that consists of a single term for the grand mean.

• For marginality of terms refer to Hasse diagrams and can be deduced using definition VI.9.

• This definition states that one generalized factor is marginal to another if – the factors in the marginal generalized factor are a

subset of those in the other and – this will occur irrespective of the replication of the

levels of the generalized factors.

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 40

Two-factor CRD

• For all randomized factors fixed, the potential expectation terms are A, B and AB.

• Maximal model – includes all terms: E[Y] = A + B + AB– However, marginal terms must be removed – so the maximal model reduces to E[Y] = AB

• Next model leaves out AB giving additive model E[Y] = A + B– no marginal terms in this model.

• A simpler model than this is either E[Y] = A and E[Y] = B.

• Only other possible model is one with neither A nor B: E[Y] = G.

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 41

Alternative expectation models in terms of matrices

• Expressions for X matrices in terms of direct products of Is and 1s when A and B are in standard order.

AB AB

A+B A B

A A

B B

G G

A and B interact

in effect on response

A and B independently

affect response

A only affects response

B only affects response

no factors affect response

X

X X

X

X

X

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 42

X matrices• Again suppose, the elements of the Y vector are

arranged so that the values of the factors A, B and the replicates are in standard order, as for a systematic layout.

• Then the X matrices can be written as the following direct products:

G

A

B

AB

a b r abr

a b r

a b r

a b r

X 1 1 1 1

X I 1 1

X 1 I 1

X I I 1

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 43

Example VII.5 22 Factorial experiment (continued)

• Remember A and B have two levels each and that each combination of A and B is replicated 3 times.

• Hence, a = b = 2, r = 3 and n = 12. Then

1 2

1 2

11 12 21 22

• Suppose Y is arranged so that the values of A, B and the replicates are in standard order — that is

• Then

111 112 113 121 122 123 211 212 213 221 222 223Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 44

Example VII.5 22 Factorial experiment (continued)

Notice, irrespective of the replication of the levels of AB ,• XG can be written as a linear combination of the columns

of each of the other three • XA and XB can be written as linear combinations of the

columns of XAB.

G A B AB

A 1 2 1 1 2 2

B 1 2 1 2 1 2

1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 01 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 01 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 01 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 01 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 01 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 01 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 01 0 1 1 01 0 1 0 11 0 1 0 11 0 1 0 1

X X X X

0 0 1 00 0 0 10 0 0 10 0 0 1

G 2 2 3 12

A 2 2 3

B 2 2 3

AB 2 2 3

X 1 1 1 1

X I 1 1

X 1 I 1

X I I 1

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 45

Example VII.5 22 Factorial experiment (continued)• Marginality of indicator-variable terms (for generalized

factors)– XG XA, XB, XAB().– XA, XB XAB().– More loosely, for terms as seen in the Hasse diagram, we say that

• G < A, B, AB • A, B < AB

• Marginality of models (made up of indicator-variable terms)– G A, B, A+B, AB

[G XG, A XA, B XB, A+B XA + XB, AB XAB()]– A, B A+B, AB

[A XA, B XB, A+B XA + XB, AB XAB()]–

A+B AB [A+B XA + XB, AB XAB()]

– More loosely,• G < A, B, A+B, AB,• A, B < A+B, AB • A+B < AB.

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 46

Estimators of the expected values for the expectation models• They are all functions of means.• So can be written in terms of mean operators, Ms. • If Y is arranged so that the associated factors A, B and

the replicates are in standard order, the M operators written as the direct product of I and J matrices:

Model Estimator

AB ABX 1AB ABˆ a b rr A B M Y I I J Y

A+B A B X X A+Bˆ A B G

A AX 1A Aˆ a b rbr A M Y I J J Y

B BX 1B Bˆ a b rar B M Y J I J Y

G GX 1G Gˆ a b rn G M Y J J J Y

are the n-vectors of means, the latter for the combinations of A and B, that is for the generalized factor AB.

, , and G A B A B

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 47

Example VII.5 22 Factorial experiment (continued)

• The mean vectors, produced by an MY, are as follows:

1 11 11 11 11 11 1

1 21 2

1 21 2

1 2 1 2

2 1 2 1

2 1 2 1

2 1 2 12 2 22 2

2 2

A BA BGA BA BGA BA BGA BA BGA BA BG

A B A BGA BG A B

G A B A BG A B A BG A B AG A BG A B

G A B A Β

2

2 2

2 2

BA BA B

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 48

VII.E Hypothesis testing using the ANOVA method for factorial experiments

• Use ANOVA to choose between models.• In this section will use generic names of A, B and Units

for the factors• Recall ANOVA for two-factor CRD.

Source df SSq E[MSq]

Units n 1 UY Q Y

A a 1 AY Q Y 2U Aq

B b 1 BY Q Y 2U Bq

A#B (a 1)(b 1) ABY Q Y 2U ABq

Residual ab(r 1) ResUY Q Y 2

U

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 49

a) Sums of squares for the analysis of variance

• Require estimators of the following SSqs for a two-factor CRD ANOVA: – Total or Units; A; B; A#B and Residual.

• Use Hasse diagram.

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 50

Vectors for sums of squares

Res

U U G G

A A G

B B G

AB AB A B G

U U AB AB

Total or Units SSq:

A SSq:

B SSq:

A#B SSq:

Residual SSq:

e

e

e

e ee

Q Y M M Y Y G D

Q Y M M Y A G A

Q Y M M Y B G B

Q Y M M M M Y

A B A B G A B

Q Y M M Y Y A B D

Y A B A B G

• All the Ms and Qs are symmetric and idempotent.

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 51

SSq (continued)• From section VII.C, Models and estimation

for factorial experiments, we have that

1G

1A

1B

1AB

a b r

a b r

a b r

a b r

n

br

ar

r

G M Y J J J Y

A M Y I J J Y

B M Y J I J Y

A B M Y I I J Y

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 52

SSq (continued)

• So SSqs for the ANOVA are given by

Res

U G G

A

B

AB

U AB AB

e e

e e

e e

Y Q Y D D

Y Q Y A A

Y Q Y B B

Y Q Y A B A B

Y Q Y D D

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 53

ANOVA table constructed as follows:Source df SSq MSq E[MSq] F p

Units n 1 UY Q Y

A a 1 AY Q Y 2AA1

sa

Y Q Y 2

U Aq Res

2 2A Us s Ap

B b 1 BY Q Y 2BB1

sb

Y Q Y 2

U Bq Res

2 2B Us s Bp

A#B (a 1)(b 1) ABY Q Y

2ABAB1 1

sa b

Y Q Y 2

U ABq

Res

2 2AB Us s ABp

Residual ab(r 1) ResUY Q Y

Res

Res

U 2U1

sab r

Y Q Y

2U

Total abr 1 UY Q Y

• Can compute the SSqs by decomposing y as follows:

ABe e e y g a b a b d

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 54

d) Expected mean squares • The E[MSq]s involve three quadratic functions of

the expectation vector:

A A

B B

AB AB

1 ,

1 ,

1 1 .

q a

q b

q a b

Q

Q

Q

• That is, numerators are SSqs of

– QA (MAMG), – QB (MBMG) and – QAB (MABMAMB+MG),

where is one of the models – G XG– A XA– B XB– A+B XA + XB– AB XAB()

• Require expressions for the quadratic functions under each of these models.

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 55

Zero & nonzero quadratic functions

• Firstly, considering the column for source A#B, – the only model for which qAB() 0 is AB XAB().– Consequently, A#B is significant indicates that qAB() > 0 and that

the maximal model is the appropriate model. • Secondly, considering the column for source A,

– qA() 0 implies either a model that includes XA or the maximal model XAB():

if A#B is significant, know need maximal model and test for A irrelevant. If A#B is not significant, know maximal model is not required and so

significant A indicates that the model should include XA. • Thirdly for source B, provided A#B is not significant, a significant B

indicates that the model should include XB.

Source Expectation model

A B A#B

G GX A G 0q B G 0q AB G 0q

Α AX A Αq B Α 0q AB Α 0q

Β BX A B 0q B Bq AB B 0q

A+B A B X X A Α+Bq B A+Bq AB A+B 0q

AB ABX A ΑBq B ABq AB ABq

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Choosing an expectation model for a two-factor CRD

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 57

Nonzero quadratic functions• In the notes show that the non-zero q-functions are given

by:

2.

1A AΑ Α+B

2.

1B BB A+B

2

. . ..1 1

AB AB

1

1

1 1

a

ii

b

jj

a b

ij i ji j

rb

q qa

ra

q qb

r

qa b

• So q-functions are zero when expressions in parentheses are zero.

• That is when . . . . .., and i j ij i j

• That is equality or an additive pattern obtain.• These, or equivalent, expressions are given for H0.

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 58

e) Summary of the hypothesis testStep 1: Set up hypotheses

a) H0: there is no interaction between A and B (or model simpler than XAB() is

adequate)

H1: there is an interaction between A and B

b) H0: 1 2 … a (or XA not required in model)

H1: not all population A means are equal

c) H0: 1 2 … b (or XB not required in model)

H1: not all population B means are equalSet 0.05.

. . ..0 for all ,

ij i ji j

. . ..0 for some ,

ij i ji j

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 59

Summary of the hypothesis test (continued)Step 2: Calculate test statistics

Source df SSq MSq E[MSq] F p

Units n 1 UY Q Y

A a 1 AY Q Y 2AA1

sa

Y Q Y 2

U Aq Res

2 2A Us s Ap

B b 1 BY Q Y 2BB1

sb

Y Q Y 2

U Bq Res

2 2B Us s Bp

A#B (a 1)(b 1) ABY Q Y

2ABAB1 1

sa b

Y Q Y 2

U ABq

Res

2 2AB Us s ABp

Residual ab(r 1) ResUY Q Y

Res

Res

U 2U1

sab r

Y Q Y

2U

Total abr 1 UY Q Y

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 60

Summary of the hypothesis test (continued)

Step 3: Decide between hypothesesIf A#B is significant, we conclude that the maximal model AB E[Y] XAB() best describes the data.

If A#B is not significant, the choice between these models depends on which of A and B are not significant. A term corresponding to the significant source must be included in the model.

For example, if both A and B are significant, then the model that best describes the data is the additive model A+B E[Y] XA + XB.

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 61

f) Computation of ANOVA and diagnostic checking in R

• The assumptions underlying a factorial experiment will be the same as for the basic design employed, except that residuals-versus-factor plots of residuals are also produced for all the factors in the experiment.

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 62

Example VII.4 Animal survival experiment (continued)• Previously determined the following experimental

structure for this experiment.

Structure Formula unrandomized 48 Animals randomized 3 Poisons*4 Treatments

• From this we conclude that the model to be used for aov function is

Surv.Time ~ Poison * Treat + Error(Animals).

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 63

R instructions

Fac2Pois.dat <- fac.gen(generate = list(Poison = 3, 4, Treat=4))

Fac2Pois.dat <- data.frame(Animals = factor(1:48), Fac2Pois.dat)

Fac2Pois.dat$Surv.Time <-

c(0.31,0.82,0.43,0.45,0.45,1.10,0.45,0.71,0.46,0.88,0.63,0.66,

0.43,0.72,0.76,0.62,0.36,0.92,0.44,0.56,0.29,0.61,0.35,1.02,

0.40,0.49,0.31,0.71,0.23,1.24,0.40,0.38,0.22,0.30,0.23,0.30,

0.21,0.37,0.25,0.36,0.18,0.38,0.24,0.31,0.23,0.29,0.22,0.33)

attach(Fac2Pois.dat)

Fac2Pois.dat

• First data entered into R data.frame Fac2Pois.dat.

Treatment 1 2 3 4

I 0.31 0.82 0.43 0.45 0.45 1.10 0.45 0.71 0.46 0.88 0.63 0.66 0.43 0.72 0.76 0.62 II 0.36 0.92 0.44 0.56 Poison 0.29 0.61 0.35 1.02

0.40 0.49 0.31 0.71 0.23 1.24 0.40 0.38 III 0.22 0.30 0.23 0.30 0.21 0.37 0.25 0.36 0.18 0.38 0.24 0.31 0.23 0.29 0.22 0.33

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 64

R output> Fac2Pois.dat Animals Poison Treat Surv.Time 1 1 1 1 0.31 2 2 1 2 0.82 3 3 1 3 0.43 4 4 1 4 0.45 5 5 1 1 0.45 6 6 1 2 1.10 7 7 1 3 0.45 8 8 1 4 0.71 9 9 1 1 0.4610 10 1 2 0.8811 11 1 3 0.6312 12 1 4 0.6613 13 1 1 0.4314 14 1 2 0.7215 15 1 3 0.7616 16 1 4 0.6217 17 2 1 0.3618 18 2 2 0.9219 19 2 3 0.4420 20 2 4 0.5621 21 2 1 0.2922 22 2 2 0.6123 23 2 3 0.3524 24 2 4 1.02

25 25 2 1 0.4026 26 2 2 0.4927 27 2 3 0.3128 28 2 4 0.7129 29 2 1 0.2330 30 2 2 1.2431 31 2 3 0.4032 32 2 4 0.3833 33 3 1 0.2234 34 3 2 0.3035 35 3 3 0.2336 36 3 4 0.3037 37 3 1 0.2138 38 3 2 0.3739 39 3 3 0.2540 40 3 4 0.3641 41 3 1 0.1842 42 3 2 0.3843 43 3 3 0.2444 44 3 4 0.3145 45 3 1 0.2346 46 3 2 0.2947 47 3 3 0.2248 48 3 4 0.33

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 65

R instructions and outputinteraction.plot(Poison, Treat, Surv.Time, lwd=4)

Fac2Pois.aov <- aov(Surv.Time ~ Poison * Treat + Error(Animals), Fac2Pois.dat)

summary(Fac2Pois.aov)

• Function interaction.plot to produce the plot for initial graphical exploration.

• Boxplots not relevant as single factor.

> interaction.plot(Poison, Treat, Surv.Time, lwd = 4)> Fac2Pois.aov <- aov(Surv.Time ~ Poison * Treat +

Error(Animals), Fac2Pois.dat)> summary(Fac2Pois.aov)Error: Animals Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)Poison 2 1.03301 0.51651 23.2217 3.331e-07Treat 3 0.92121 0.30707 13.8056 3.777e-06Poison:Treat 6 0.25014 0.04169 1.8743 0.1123Residuals 36 0.80073 0.02224

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 66

Diagnostic checking• As experiment was set up as a CRD, the assumptions

underlying its analysis will be the same as for the CRD• Diagnostic checking the same — in particular, Tukey’s

one-degree-of-freedom-for-nonadditivity cannot be computed.

• The R output produced by the expressions that deal with diagnostic checking is as follows:

> #

> # Diagnostic checking

> #

> res <- resid.errors(Fac2Pois.aov)

> fit <- fitted.errors(Fac2Pois.aov)

> plot(fit, res, pch=16)

> plot(as.numeric(Poison), res, pch=16)

> plot(as.numeric(Treat), res, pch=16)

> qqnorm(res, pch=16)

> qqline(res)

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 67

Diagnostic checking (continued)

• All plots indicate a problem with the assumptions — will a transformation fix the problem?

0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

fit

res

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

as.numeric(Poison)

res

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

as.numeric(Treat)

res

-2 -1 0 1 2

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

Normal Q-Q Plot

Theoretical Quantiles

Sa

mp

le Q

ua

ntil

es

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 68

g) Box-Cox transformations for correcting transformable non-additivity

• Box, Hunter and Hunter (sec. 7.9) describe the Box-Cox procedure for determining the appropriate power transformation for a set of data.

• It has been implemented in the R function boxcox supplied in the MASS library that comes with R.

• When you run this procedure you obtain a plot of the log-likelihood of , the power of the transformation to be used (for  = 0 use the ln transformation).

• However, the function does not work with aovlist objects and so the aov function must be repeated without the Error function.

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 69

Example VII.4 Animal survival experiment (continued)

> Fac2Pois.NoError.aov <- aov(Surv.Time ~ Poison * Treat, Fac2Pois.dat)

> library(MASS)

The following object(s) are masked from package:MASS :

Animals boxcox(Fac2Pois.NoError.aov, lambda=seq(from = -2.5,

to = 2.5, len=20), plotit=T)

The message reporting the masking of Animals is saying that there is a vector Animals that is part of the MASS library that is being overshadowed by Animals in Fac2Pois.dat.

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 70

Example VII.4 Animal survival experiment (continued)

• Output indicates that, as the log likelihood is a maximum around  = -1, the reciprocal transformation should be used.

• The reciprocal of the survival time will be the death rate — the number that die per unit time

-2 -1 0 1 2

-40

-30

-20

-10

01

02

03

0

log

-Lik

elih

oo

d

95%

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 71

Repeat the analysis on the reciprocals• detach Fac2Pois.dat data.frame• add Death.Rate to the data.frame• reattach the data.frame to refresh info in R. • repeat expressions from the original analysis with Surv.time replaced by Death.Rate appropriately.

• Looking like no interaction.

23

4

Poison

me

an

of

De

ath

.Ra

te

1 2 3

Treat

1342

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 72

Repeat the analysis on the reciprocals (continued)

> detach(Fac2Pois.dat)> Fac2Pois.dat$Death.Rate <- 1/Fac2Pois.dat$Surv.Time> attach(Fac2Pois.dat)

The following object(s) are masked from package:MASS :

Animals

> interaction.plot(Poison, Treat, Death.Rate, lwd=4)> Fac2Pois.DR.aov <- aov(Death.Rate ~ Poison * Treat + Error(Animals), Fac2Pois.dat)> summary(Fac2Pois.DR.aov)

Error: Animals Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)Poison 2 34.877 17.439 72.6347 2.310e-13Treat 3 20.414 6.805 28.3431 1.376e-09Poison:Treat 6 1.571 0.262 1.0904 0.3867Residuals 36 8.643 0.240

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 73

Repeat the analysis on the reciprocals (continued)

• Looking good

2 3 4

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

fit

res

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

as.numeric(Poison)

res

1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

as.numeric(Treat)

res

-2 -1 0 1 2

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

Normal Q-Q Plot

Theoretical Quantiles

Sa

mp

le Q

ua

ntil

es

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 74

Comparison of untransformed and transformed analyses

• The analysis of the transformed data indicates that there is no interaction on the transformed scale — confirms plot.

• The main effect mean squares are even larger than before indicating that we are able to separate the treatments even more on the transformed scale.

• Diagnostic checking now indicates all assumptions are met.

UNTRANSFORMED TRANSFORMED Source df MSq F Prob df MSq F Prob Animals 47 47 Poison 2 0.5165 23.22 0.0000 2 17.439 72.63 <0.001 Treatment 3 0.3071 13.81 0.0000 3 6.805 28.34 <0.001 Poison#Treat 6 0.0417 1.87 0.1112 6 0.262 1.09 0.387 Residual 36 0.0222 36 0.240

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VII.F Treatment differences

• As usual the examination of treatment differences can be based on multiple comparisons or submodels.

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 76

a) Multiple comparison procedures

• For two factor experiments, there will be altogether three tables of means, namely one for each of A, B and AB.

• Which table is of interest depends on the results of the hypothesis tests outlined above.

• However, in all cases Tukey’s HSD procedure will be employed to determine which means are significantly different.

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 77

A#B Interaction significant• In this case you look at the table of means for the

AB combinations.

A 1 2 3 . . . a 1 x x x . . . x 2 x x x . . . x . . . . . . . .

B . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . b x x x . . . x

, ,0.05 , ,0.05 25%

2 2d

ab abx

q qw s s

r

• In this case you look at differences between means for different AB combinations.

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 78

A#B interaction not significant

• In this case examine the A and B tables of means for the significant lines.

A 1 2 3 . . . a

Means x x x . . . x

, ,0.05 , ,0.05 25%

2 2d

a ax

q qw s s

rb

B 1 2 3 . . . b

Means x x x . . . x

, ,0.05 , ,0.05 25%

2 2d

b bx

q qw s s

ra

• That is, we examine each factor separately, using main effects.

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Example VII.4 Animal survival experiment (continued)

Poison:Treat TreatPoison 1 2 3 4 1 2.487 1.163 1.863 1.690 2 3.268 1.393 2.714 1.702 3 4.803 3.029 4.265 3.092> q.PT <- qtukey(0.95, 12, 36)> q.PT[1] 4.93606> q.P <- qtukey(0.95, 3, 36)> q.P[1] 3.456758> q.T <- qtukey(0.95, 4, 36)> q.T[1] 3.808798

• Tables of means and studentized ranges:> #> # multiple comparisons> #

> model.tables(Fac2Pois.DR.aov, type="means")

Tables of means

Grand mean

2.622376

Poison

Poison

1 2 3

1.801 2.269 3.797

Treat

Treat

1 2 3 4

3.519 1.862 2.947 2.161

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 80

Example VII.4 Animal survival experiment (continued)

• For our example, as the interaction is not significant, the overall tables of means are examined.

• For the Poison meansPoison 1 2 3 1.801 2.269 3.797

3.456758 0.240 25%

1620.42

w

• All Poison means are significantly different.• For the Treat meansTreat

1 2 3 4

3.519 1.862 2.947 2.161

3.808798 0.240 25%

1220.54

w

• All but Treats 2 and 4 are different.

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 81

Plotting the means in a bar chart> # Plotting means> #> Fac2Pois.DR.tab <- model.tables(Fac2Pois.DR.aov, type="means")> Fac2Pois.DR.Poison.Means <- + data.frame(Poison = levels(Poison), + Death.Rate = as.vector(Fac2Pois.DR.tab$tables$Poison))> barchart(Death.Rate ~ Poison, main="Fitted values for Death rate", + ylim=c(0,4), data=Fac2Pois.DR.Poison.Means)> Fac2Pois.DR.Treat.Means <- + data.frame(Treatment = levels(Treat), + Death.Rate = as.vector(Fac2Pois.DR.tab$tables$Treat))> barchart(Death.Rate ~ Treat, main="Fitted values for Death rate", + ylim=c(0,4), data=Fac2Pois.DR.Treat.Means)

• Max death rate with Poison 3 and Treats 1. • Min death rate with Poison 1 and either Treats 2 or 4.

Fitted values for Death rate

De

ath

.Ra

te

1

2

3

1 2 3 4

Fitted values for Death rate

De

ath

.Ra

te

1

2

3

1 2 3

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 82

If interaction significant, 2 possibilities• Possible researcher’s objective(s):

i. finding levels combination(s) of the factors that maximize (or minimize) response variable or describing response variable differences between all levels combinations of the factors

ii. for each level of one factor, finding the level of the other factor that maximizes (or minimizes) the response variable or describing the response variable differences between the levels of the other factor

iii. finding a level of one factor for which there is no difference between the levels of the other factor

• For i: examine all possible pairs of differences between all means.

• For ii & iii: examine pairs of mean differences between levels of one factor for each level of other factor i.e. in slices for each level of other factor (= examining simple effects).

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 83

Table of Poison by Treat means

Poison:Treat TreatPoison 1 2 3 4 1 2.487 1.163 1.863 1.690 2 3.268 1.393 2.714 1.702 3 4.803 3.029 4.265 3.092

• Look for overall max or max in each column• Do not do for this example as interaction is not

significant

4.93606 0.240 25%

421.21

w

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 84

b) Polynomial submodels• As stated previously, the formal expression for

maximal indicator-variable model for a two-factor CRD experiment, where the two randomized factors A and B are fixed, is:

2AB AB U and nE Y X V I

• In respect of fitting polynomial submodels, two situations are possible:

i. one factor only is quantitative, or

ii. both factors are quantitative.

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 85

One quantitative (B) and one qualitative factor (A)• Following set of models for E[Yijk] is considered:

21 2

1

depends on combination of A and B

quadratic response to B, differing for A

linear response to B, differing for A

nonsmooth,

j j

j

ijk ij

ijk i i i

ijk i i

ijk i j

E Y

E Y x x

E Y x

E Y

2

1 2

1

independent response to A & B

quadratic response to B, intercept differs for A

linear response to B, intercept differs for A

nonsmooth response, dep

j j

j

ijk i

ijk i

ijk i

E Y x x

E Y x

E Y

21 2

1

ends on A only

nonsmooth response, depends on B only

quadratic response to B, A has no effect

linear response to B, A has no effect

neither

j j

j

ijk j

ijk

ijk

ijk

E Y

E Y x x

E Y x

E Y

factor affects the response

indicator-variable models

Interaction models

Additive models

One-factor models

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 86

Matrix expressions for models

1 1

2 2

2 1 2

is an -vector of effects

is an -vector of linear coefficients

is an -vector of quadratic coeffients

is an -vector of effects

is a -vector of effects

ij

i

i

i

j

ab

a

a

a

b

AB

A A1 A21 2

A A1 1

A B

depends on combination of A and B

quadratic response to B, differing for A

linear response to B, differing for A

nonsmooth, independent response to A

E

E

E

E

Y X

Y X X X

Y X X

Y X X

A 1 1 2 2

A 1 1

A

B

& B

quadratic response to B, intercept differs for A

linear response to B, intercept differs for A

nonsmooth response, depends on A only

nonsmooth response, depends

E

E

E

E

Y X X X

Y X X

Y X

Y X

G 1 1 2 2

G 1 1

G

on B only

quadratic response to B, A has no effect

linear response to B, A has no effect

neither factor affects the response

E

E

E

Y X X X

Y X X

Y X

1

22

A1

is an -vector containing the values of the levels of B

is an -vector containing the (values) of the levels of B

is an matrix whose th column contains

the values of the levels of B

n

n

n a i

X

X

X

A2

2

for just those units that

received the th level of A

is an matrix whose th column contains

the (values) of the levels of B for just those units

that received the th level of A

i

n a i

i

X

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 89

Example VII.6 Effect of operating temperature on light output of an oscilloscope tube• Suppose an experiment conducted to investigate the effect of the

operating temperatures 75, 100, 125 and 150, for three glass types, on the light output of an oscilloscope tube.

• Further suppose that this was done using a CRD with 2 reps.• Then X matrices for the analysis of the experiment:

1 1 1 A1 1

75 75 0 075 75 0 0

100 100 0 0100 100 0 0125 125 0 0125 125 0 0150 150 0 0150 150 0 075 0 75 075 0 75 0

100 0 100 0100 0 100 0,125 0 125 0125 0 1251501507575

100100125125150150

X X

11

A221 2

31

5625 0 05265 0 0

10000 0 010000 0 015625 0 015625 0 022500 0 022500 0 0

0 5625 00 5625 00

,

00 150 00 150 00 0 750 0 750 0 1000 0 1000 0 1250 0 1250 0 1500 0 150

X

12

22

32

10000 00 10000 00 15625 00 15625 00 22500 00 22500 00 0 56250 0 56250 0 100000 0 100000 0 156250 0 156250 0 225000 0 22500

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 90

Why this set of expectation models?• As before, s are used for the coefficients of polynomial

terms – a numeric subscript for each quantitative fixed factor in the

experiment is placed on the s to indicate the degree(s) to which the factor(s) is(are) raised.

• The above models are ordered from the most complex to the simplest.

• They obey two rules:• Rule VII.1: The set of expectation models corresponds to

the set of all possible combinations of potential expectation terms, subject to restriction that terms marginal to another expectation term are excluded from the model;

• Rule VII.2: An expectation model must include all polynomial terms of lower degree than a polynomial term that has been put in the model.

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 91

Definitions to determine if a polynomial term is of lower degree

• Definition VII.7: A polynomial term is one in which the X matrix involves the quantitative levels of a factor(s).

• Definition VII.8: The degree for a polynomial term with respect to a quantitative factor is the power to which levels of that factor are to be raised in this term.

• Definition VII.9: A polynomial term is said to be of lower degree than a second polynomial term if, – for each quantitative factor in first term, its degree is

less than or equal to its degree in the second term and– the degree of at least one factor in the first term is less

than that of the same factor in the second term.

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 92

Marginality of terms and models• Note that the term X11 is not marginal to X22

— the column X1 is not a linear combination of the column X2.

• However,– the degree of X11 is less than that of X22 – the degree rule above implies that if term X22 is

included in the model, so must the term X11. • As far as the marginality of models is

concerned, the model involving just X11 is marginal to the model consisting of X11 and X22

G 1 1 G 1 1 2 2E E Y X X Y X X X

1 1 1

7575

1001001251251501507575

1001001251251501507575

100100125125150150

X

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 93

Marginality of terms and models (cont'd)

• Also note that the term X11 is marginal to XA1()1 since X1 is the sum of the columns of XA1.

• Consequently, a model containing XA1()1 will not contain X11.

• In general, the models to which a particular model is marginal will be found above it in the list.

1 1 1 A1 1

75 75 0 075 75 0 0

100 100 0 0100 100 0 0125 125 0 0125 125 0 0150 150 0 0150 150 0 075 0 75 075 0 75 0

100 0 100 0100 0 100 0,125 0 125 0125 0 1251501507575

100100125125150150

X X

11

A221 2

31

5625 0 05265 0 0

10000 0 010000 0 015625 0 015625 0 022500 0 022500 0 0

0 5625 00 5625 00

,

00 150 00 150 00 0 750 0 750 0 1000 0 1000 0 1250 0 1250 0 1500 0 150

X

12

22

32

10000 00 10000 00 15625 00 15625 00 22500 00 22500 00 0 56250 0 56250 0 100000 0 100000 0 156250 0 156250 0 225000 0 22500

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 95

ANOVA table for a two-factor CRD with one quantitative factor

Source df SSq Units n 1 UY Q Y A a 1 AY Q Y B b 1 BY Q Y Linear 1

LBY Q Y Quadratic 1

QBY Q Y Deviations b 3

DevBY Q Y A#B (a 1)(b 1) ABY Q Y A#BLinear a 1

LABY Q Y A#BQuadratic a 1

QABY Q Y Deviations (a 1)(b 3)

DevABY Q Y Residual ab(r 1)

ResUY Q Y

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 96

Strategy in determining models to be used to describe the data. For Deviations• Only if the terms to which a term is marginal are not significant then, if

P(F  Fcalc) , the evidence suggests that H0 be rejected and the term must be incorporated in the model.

• Deviations for B is marginal to Deviations for A#B so that if the latter is significant, the Deviations for B is not tested; indeed no further testing occurs as the maximal model has to be used to describe the data.

For A#BLinear and A#BQuadratic

• Only if the polynomial terms are not of lower degree than a significant polynomial term then, if P(F  Fcalc) , the evidence suggests that H0 be rejected and the term be incorporated in the model.

• A#BLinear is of lower degree than to A#BQuadratic so that if the latter is significant, A#BLinear is not tested.

For A, Linear for B, Quadratic for B• Only if the terms to which a term is marginal and the polynomial terms

of higher degree are not significant then, if P(F  Fcalc) , the evidence suggests that H0 be rejected and the term be incorporated in the model.

• For example, for the Linear term for B, it is of lower degree than the Quadratic term for B and it is marginal to A#BLinear so that if either of these is significant, Linear for B is not tested.

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 97

Both factors quantitative• Example VII.7 Muzzle velocity of an antipersonnel

weapon• In a two-factor CRD experiment with two replicates the

effect of – Vent volume and – Discharge hole area

on the muzzle velocity of a mortar-like antipersonnel weapon was investigated.

Vent Discharge hole area volume 0.016 0.03 0.048 0.062

0.29 294.9 295.0 270.5 258.6 294.1 301.1 263.2 255.9

0.40 301.7 293.1 278.6 257.1 307.9 300.6 267.9 263.6

0.59 285.5 285.0 269.6 262.6 298.6 289.1 269.1 260.3

0.91 303.1 277.8 262.2 305.3 305.3 266.4 263.2 304.9

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 98

Interaction.Plot produced using R

• Pretty clear that there is an interaction.

26

02

70

28

02

90

30

0

Vent.Vol

me

an

of

Ve

loci

ty

0.29 0.4 0.59 0.91

Hole.Area

0.0620.0160.030.048

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 99

Maximal polynomial submodel, in terms of a single observation

where • Yijk is the random variable representing the response

variable for the kth unit that received the ith level of factor A and the jth level of factor B,

• is the overall level of the response variable in the experiment,

• is the value of the ith level of factor A,• is the value of the jth level of factor B, • s are the coefficients of the equation describing the

change in response as the levels of A and/or B changes with the first subscript indicating the degree with respect to factor A and the second subscript indicating the degree with respect to factor B.

2 210 20 01 02

2 2 2 211 12 21 22

i i j j

i j i j i j i j

ijkE Y x x x x

x x x x x x x x

ix

jx

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 100

Maximal polynomial submodel, in matrix terms

• X is an n 8 matrix whose columns are the products of the values of the levels of A and B as indicated by the subscripts in X.

• For example– 3rd column consists of the values of the levels of B – 7th column the product of the squared values of the

levels of A with the values of the levels of B.

G 22E Y X X

22 10 20 01 02 11 12 21 22

10 20 01 02 11 12 21 22

where

X X X X X X X X X

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 101

Set of expectation models considered when both factors are quantitative

AB

22

22

A B

A 01 01 02 02

depends on combination of A and B

smooth response in A and B

or some subset of that obeys the degrees rule

nonsmooth, independent response to A & B

q

G

E

E

E

E

Y X

Y X X

X

Y X X

Y X X X

A 01 01

A

B 10 10 20 20

uadratic response for B, intercept differs for A

linear response for B, intercept differs for A

nonsmooth response, depends on A only

quadratic response for A, inte

E

E

E

Y X X

Y X

Y X X X

B 10 10

B

rcept differs for B

linear response for A, intercept differs for B

nonsmooth response, depends on B only

E

E

Y X X

Y X

22 10 20 01 02 11 12 21 22

where ij

i

j

non-smooth B

non-smooth A

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 102

Set of expectation models (continued)

• Again, rules VII.1 and VII.2 were used in deriving this set of models.

• Also, the subsets of terms from 22 mentioned above include the null subset and must conform to rule VII.2 so that whenever a term from X22 is added to the subset, all terms of lower degree must also be included in the subset.– X1111 < X1212 so model with X1212 must include X1111

– X1212 X2121 so model with X1212 does not need X2121

• Further, if for a term the Deviation for a marginal term is significant, polynomial terms are not considered for it.

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 103

Interpreting the fitted models• models in which there are only single-factor polynomial

terms define – a plane if both terms linear– a parabolic tunnel if one term is linear and the other quadratic– a paraboloid if both involve quadratic terms

• models including interaction submodels define nonlinear surfaces

– they will be monotonic for factors involving only linear terms,– for interactions involving quadratic terms, some candidate

shapes are:

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 104

ANOVA table for a two-factor CRD with both factors quantitative

Source df SSq Units n 1 UY Q Y

A a 1 AY Q Y

Linear 1 LAY Q Y

Quadratic 1 QAY Q Y

Deviations a 3 DevBY Q Y

B b 1 BY Q Y

Linear 1 LBY Q Y

Quadratic 1 QBY Q Y

Deviations b 3 DevBY Q Y

A#B (a 1)(b 1) ABY Q Y

ALinear#BLinear 1 L LA BY Q Y

ALinear#BQuadratic 1 L QA BY Q Y

AQuadratic#BLinear 1 Q LA BY Q Y

AQuadratic#BQuadratic 1 Q QA BY Q Y

Deviations (a 1)(b 1) 4 DevABY Q Y

Residual ab(r 1) ResUY Q Y

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 105

Step 3: Decide between hypotheses For Deviations• Only if the terms to which a term is marginal are not

significant then, if Pr{F  F0} p , the evidence suggests that H0 be rejected and the term must be incorporated in the model.

• Deviations for A and B are marginal to Deviations for A#B so that if the latter is significant, neither the Deviations for A nor for B is tested; indeed no further testing occurs as the maximal model has to be used to describe the data.

For all Linear and Quadratic terms• Only if the polynomial terms are not of lower degree than a

significant polynomial term and the terms to which the term is marginal are not significant then, if Pr{F  F0} p , the evidence suggests that H0 be rejected; the term and all polynomial terms of lower degree must be incorporated in the model.

• For example, Alinear#BLinear is marginal to A#B and is of lower degree than all other polynomial interaction terms and so is not tested if any of them is significant.

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 106

Example VII.7 Muzzle velocity of an antipersonnel weapon (continued)

• Here is the analysis produced using R, where > attach(Fac2Muzzle.dat)> interaction.plot(Vent.Vol, Hole.Area, Velocity, lwd=4)> Vent.Vol.lev <- c(0.29, 0.4, 0.59, 0.91)> Fac2Muzzle.dat$Vent.Vol <-

ordered(Fac2Muzzle.dat$Vent.Vol, levels=Vent.Vol.lev)> contrasts(Fac2Muzzle.dat$Vent.Vol) <- contr.poly(4,

scores=Vent.Vol.lev)> contrasts(Fac2Muzzle.dat$Vent.Vol)> Hole.Area.lev <- c(0.016, 0.03, 0.048, 0.062)> Fac2Muzzle.dat$Hole.Area <-

ordered(Fac2Muzzle.dat$Hole.Area,levels=Hole.Area.lev)

> contrasts(Fac2Muzzle.dat$Hole.Area) <- contr.poly(4, scores=Hole.Area.lev)

> contrasts(Fac2Muzzle.dat$Hole.Areaboth factors are converted to ordered

and polynomial contrasts for unequally-spaced levels obtained

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Contrasts> contrasts(Fac2Muzzle.dat$Vent.Vol)

.L .Q .C

0.29 -0.54740790 0.5321858 -0.40880670

0.4 -0.31356375 -0.1895091 0.78470636

0.59 0.09034888 -0.7290797 -0.45856278

0.91 0.77062277 0.3864031 0.08266312

> contrasts(Fac2Muzzle.dat$Hole.Area)

.L .Q .C

0.016 -0.6584881 0.5 -0.2576693

0.03 -0.2576693 -0.5 0.6584881

0.048 0.2576693 -0.5 -0.6584881

0.062 0.6584881 0.5 0.2576693> summary(Fac2Muzzle.aov, split = list(+ Vent.Vol = list(L=1, Q=2, Dev=3), + Hole.Area = list(L=1, Q= 2, Dev=3),+ "Vent.Vol:Hole.Area" = list(L.L=1, L.Q=2, Q.L=4, Q.Q=5, Dev=c(3,6:9))))

Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 107

Factor B Contrast 1 2 3 Contrast Label L Q Dev 1 L L.L

(1) L.Q (2)

Dev (3)

A 2 Q Q.L (4)

Q.Q (5)

Dev (6)

3 Dev Dev (7)

Dev (8)

Dev (9)

Table shows numbering of contrasts (standard order; by rows).

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 108

R ANOVA> summary(Fac2Muzzle.aov, split = list(+ Vent.Vol = list(L=1, Q=2, Dev=3), + Hole.Area = list(L=1, Q= 2, Dev=3),+ "Vent.Vol:Hole.Area" = list(L.L=1, L.Q=2, Q.L=4, Q.Q=5,

Dev=c(3,6:9))))

Error: Test Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)Vent.Vol 3 379.5 126.5 5.9541 0.0063117 Vent.Vol: L 1 108.2 108.2 5.0940 0.0383455 Vent.Vol: Q 1 72.0 72.0 3.3911 0.0841639 Vent.Vol: Dev 1 199.2 199.2 9.3771 0.0074462Hole.Area 3 5137.2 1712.4 80.6092 7.138e-10 Hole.Area: L 1 4461.2 4461.2 210.0078 1.280e-10 Hole.Area: Q 1 357.8 357.8 16.8422 0.0008297 Hole.Area: Dev 1 318.2 318.2 14.9776 0.0013566Vent.Vol:Hole.Area 9 3973.5 441.5 20.7830 3.365e-07 Vent.Vol:Hole.Area: L.L 1 1277.2 1277.2 60.1219 8.298e-07 Vent.Vol:Hole.Area: L.Q 1 89.1 89.1 4.1962 0.0572893 Vent.Vol:Hole.Area: Q.L 1 2171.4 2171.4 102.2166 2.358e-08 Vent.Vol:Hole.Area: Q.Q 1 308.5 308.5 14.5243 0.0015364 Vent.Vol:Hole.Area: Dev 5 127.2 25.4 1.1975 0.3541807Residuals 16 339.9 21.2

split used for both factors and interactions in the summary function.

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 109

Analysis summary

• 5 interaction Deviations lines have been pooled — df and SSq have been added together.

• While the Deviations for the interaction is not significant (p = 0.354), those for both the main effects are significant (p = 0.007 and p = 0.001). – Hence a smooth response function cannot be fitted.

• Furthermore, the Vquadratic#HQuadratic source is significant (p = 0.002) so that interaction terms are required.

• In this case, revert to the maximal model & use multiple comparisons.

Source df SSq MSq F p Runs 31 Vent.Vol 3 379.5 126.5 5.95 0.006 Linear 1 108.2 108.2 5.09 0.038 Quadratic 1 72.0 72.0 3.39 0.084 Deviations 1 199.2 199.2 9.38 0.007 Hole.Area 3 5137.2 1712.4 80.61 0.000 Linear 1 4461.2 4461.2 210.01 0.000 Quadratic 1 357.8 357.8 16.84 0.001 Deviations 1 318.2 318.2 14.98 0.001 Vent.Vol#Hole.Area 9 3973.5 441.5 20.78 0.000 VLinear#HLinear 1 1277.2 1277.2 60.12 0.000 VLinear#HQuadratic 1 89.1 89.1 4.20 0.057 VQuadratic#HLinear 1 2171.4 2171.4 102.22 0.000 VQuadratic#HQuadratic 1 308.5 308.5 14.52 0.002 Deviations 5 127.2 25.4 1.20 0.354 Residual 16 339.9 21.2

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 110

Fitting these submodels in R• Extension of the procedure for a single factor:

– Having specified polynomial contrasts for each quantitative factor, the list argument of the summary function is used to obtain SSqs.

• The general form of the summary function for one factor, B say, quantitative is (details in Appendix C.5, Factorial experiments.):summary(Experiment.aov, split = list( B = list(L = 1, Q = 2, Dev = 3:(b-1)), "A:B" = list(L = 1, Q = 2, Dev = 3:(b-1))))

• and for two factors, A and B say, quantitative issummary(Experiment.aov, split = list( A = list(L = 1, Q = 2, Dev = 3:(a-1)), B = list(L = 1, Q = 2, Dev = 3:(b-1)), "A:B" = list(L.L=1, L.Q=2, Q.L=b, Q.Q=(b+1), Dev=c(3:(b-1),(b+2:(a-1)(b-1)))))

(drop Dev terms for b = 3 or a = 3)

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 111

VII.G Nested factorial structures • Nested factorial structures commonly arise when

– a control treatment is included or – an interaction can be described in terms of one cell being

different to the others. • Set up

– a factor (One say) with two levels:• for the control treatment or the different cell • for the other treatments or cells.

– A second factor (Treats say) with same number of levels as there are treatments or cells.

• Structure for these two factors is One/Treats• Terms in the analysis are One + Treats[One].

– One compares the control or single cell with the mean of the others.

– Treats[One] reflects the differences between the other treatments or cells.

• Can be achieved using an orthogonal contrast, but nested factors is more convenient.

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 112

General nested factorial structure set-up

• An analysis in which there is: – a term that reflects the average differences

between g groups; – a term that reflects the differences within

groups or several terms each one of which reflects the differences within a group.

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 113

Example VII.8 Grafting experiment

• For example, consider the following RCBD experiment involving two factors each at two levels.

• The response is the percent grafts that take.

B 1 2 A 1 2 1 2 I 64 23 30 15† II 75 14 50 33 Block III 76 12 41 17 IV 73 33 25 10 †observation missing; value inserted so that residual is zero.

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Statistical Modelling Chapter VII 114

Example VII.8 Grafting experiment (continued)

1. Observational unit – a plot

2. Response variable– % Take

3. Unrandomized factors– Blocks, Plots

4. Randomized factors– A, B

5. Type of study– Two-factor RCBD

b) The experimental structureStructure Formula unrandomized 4 Blocks/4 Plots randomized 2 A*2 B

a) Description of pertinent features of the study

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R output> attach(Fac2Take.dat)> Fac2Take.dat Blocks Plots A B Take1 1 1 1 1 642 1 2 2 1 233 1 3 1 2 304 1 4 2 2 155 2 1 1 1 756 2 2 2 1 147 2 3 1 2 508 2 4 2 2 339 3 1 1 1 7610 3 2 2 1 1211 3 3 1 2 4112 3 4 2 2 1713 4 1 1 1 7314 4 2 2 1 3315 4 3 1 2 2516 4 4 2 2 10> interaction.plot(A, B, Take, lwd=4)

An interaction2

03

04

05

06

07

0

A

me

an

of

Ta

ke

1 2

B

12

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R output (continued)

• > Fac2Take.aov <- aov(Take ~ Blocks + A * B + • + Error(Blocks/Plots),

Fac2Take.dat)• > summary(Fac2Take.aov)• Error: Blocks• Df Sum Sq Mean Sq• Blocks 3 221.188 73.729• Error: Blocks:Plots• Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)• A 1 4795.6 4795.6 52.662 4.781e-05• B 1 1387.6 1387.6 15.238 0.003600• A:B 1 1139.1 1139.1 12.509 0.006346• Residuals 9 819.6 91.1

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R output (continued)> res <- resid.errors(Fac2Take.aov)> fit <- fitted.errors(Fac2Take.aov)> plot(fit, res, pch=16)> plot(as.numeric(A), res, pch=16)> plot(as.numeric(B), res, pch=16)> qqnorm(res, pch=16)> qqline(res)> tukey.1df(Fac2Take.aov, Fac2Take.dat, + error.term = "Blocks:Plots")$Tukey.SS[1] 2.879712

$Tukey.F[1] 0.02820886

$Tukey.p[1] 0.870787

$Devn.SS[1] 816.6828

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Recompute for missing value

• Recalculate either in R or in Excel.• See notes for Excel details> #> # recompute for missing value> #> MSq <- c(73.729, 4795.6, 1387.6, 1139.1, 2.8797)> Res <- c(rep(819.6/8, 4), 816.6828/7)> df.num <- c(3,rep(1,4))> df.den <- c(rep(8, 4),7)> Fvalue <- MSq/Res> pvalue <- 1-pf(Fvalue, df.num, df.den)> data.frame(MSq,Res,df.num,df.den,Fvalue,pvalue) MSq Res df.num df.den Fvalue pvalue1 73.7290 102.4500 3 8 0.71965837 0.56773355802 4795.6000 102.4500 1 8 46.80917521 0.00013209423 1387.6000 102.4500 1 8 13.54416789 0.00621700094 1139.1000 102.4500 1 8 11.11859444 0.01031582595 2.8797 116.6690 1 7 0.02468266 0.8795959255

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Diagnostic checking

1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0

-10

-50

510

15

as.numeric(A)

res

1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0

-10

-50

51

01

5

as.numeric(B)

res

20 30 40 50 60 70 80

-10

-50

51

01

5

fit

res

-2 -1 0 1 2

-10

-50

51

01

5

Normal Q-Q Plot

Theoretical Quantiles

Sa

mp

le Q

ua

ntil

es

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Hypothesis test for this example

• Step 1: Set up hypothesesa) H0: ()21 ()11 ()22 + ()12 0

H1: ()21 ()11 ()22 + ()12 0

b) H0: 1 2

H1: 1 2

c) H0: 1 2

H1: 1 2

Set 0.05.

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Hypothesis test for this example (continued)Step 2: Calculate test statistics• The ANOVA table for the two-factor RCBD is:

Source df SSq MSq E[MSq] F Prob Blocks 3 221.9 73.7 2 2

BP B4 0.72 0.568

Plots[Blocks] 12 8141.8 A 1 4795.6 4795.6 2

BP Aq 46.81 <0.001

B 1 1387.6 1387.6 2BP Bq 13.54 0.006

A#B 1 1139.1 1139.1 2BP ABq 11.12 0.010

Residual 8† 819.6 102.4 2S

Nonadditivity 1 2.9 2.9 0.02 0.880 Deviations 7 816.7 116.7 †Residual degrees of freedom have been reduced by one to allow for the missing observation

Step 3: Decide between hypotheses• Note residuals-versus-fitted-values plot reveals nothing untoward, test

for nonadditivity is not significant and the normal probability plot also appears to be satisfactory.

• Significant interaction between A and B so fitted model is E[Y] XAB().

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Table of means• Means for combinations of A and B need to be examined. • Suppose the researcher wants to determine the level of A that has the greatest take

for each level of B.> #> # multiple comparisons> #> Fac2Take.tab <- model.tables(Fac2Take.aov,

type="means")> Fac2Take.tab$tables$"A:B" BA 1 2 1 72.00 36.50 2 20.50 18.75> q <- qtukey(0.95, 4, 8)> q[1] 4.52881

• no difference between A at level two of B • there is an A difference at level one of B

— level one of A maximizes.

4.52881 102.4 25%

4222.91

w

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Best description> Fac2Take.tab$tables$"A:B"Dim 1 : ADim 2 : B 1 2 1 72.00 36.502 20.50 18.75

• A and B both at level 1 different from either A or B not at level 1.

• However, the results are only approximate because of the missing value.

• Testing for this can be achieved by setting up a factor for the 4 treatments and a two-level factor that compares the cell with A and B both at level 1 with the remaining factors.

• The four-level factor for treatments is then specified as nested within the two-level factor.

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Re-analysis achieved in R> Fac2Take.dat$Cell.1.1 <- factor(1 + as.numeric(A != "1" | B != "1"))> Fac2Take.dat$Treats <- fac.combine(list(A, B))> detach(Fac2Take.dat)> attach(Fac2Take.dat)> Fac2Take.dat Blocks Plots A B Take Cell.1.1 Treats1 1 1 1 1 64 1 12 1 2 2 1 23 2 33 1 3 1 2 30 2 24 1 4 2 2 15 2 45 2 1 1 1 75 1 16 2 2 2 1 14 2 37 2 3 1 2 50 2 28 2 4 2 2 33 2 49 3 1 1 1 76 1 110 3 2 2 1 12 2 311 3 3 1 2 41 2 212 3 4 2 2 17 2 413 4 1 1 1 73 1 114 4 2 2 1 33 2 315 4 3 1 2 25 2 216 4 4 2 2 10 2 4

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Re-analysis (continued)> Fac2Take.aov <- aov(Take ~ Blocks + Cell.1.1/Treats +

Error(Blocks/Plots), Fac2Take.dat)> summary(Fac2Take.aov)

Error: Blocks Df Sum Sq Mean SqBlocks 3 221.188 73.729

Error: Blocks:Plots Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)Cell.1.1 1 6556.7 6556.7 72.0021 1.378e-05Cell.1.1:Treats 2 765.5 382.8 4.2032 0.05139Residuals 9 819.6 91.1 > # recompute for missing value> MSq <- c(73.729,6556.7,382.8)> Res <- rep(819.6/8, 3)> df.num <- c(3, 1, 2)> Fvalue <- MSq/Res> pvalue <- 1-pf(Fvalue, df.num, 8)> data.frame(MSq,Res,df.num,Fvalue,pvalue) MSq Res df.num Fvalue pvalue1 73.729 102.45 3 0.7196584 5.677336e-012 6556.700 102.45 1 63.9990239 4.367066e-053 382.800 102.45 2 3.7364568 7.146140e-02

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Revised analysis of variance table

• Appears difference between the treatments is best summarized in terms of this single degree of freedom contrast between cell1,1 and the others.

• The mean for cell 1,1 is 72.0 and, for the other three treatments, the mean is 25.2, a difference of 46.8.

• Such one-cell interactions are a very common form of interaction.

Source df SSq MSq F Prob Blocks 3 221.9 73.7 0.72 0.568 Plots[Blocks] 12 8141.8 Cell 1,1 vs rest 1 6556.7 6556.7 64.00 <0.001 Among rest 2 765.5 382.8 3.74 0.071 Residual 8†

819.6 102.4 † the Residual and Total degrees of freedom have been reduced by one to allow for the missing observation

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Example VII.9 Spraying sultanas

• An experiment was conducted to investigate the effects of tractor speed and spray pressure on the quality of dried sultanas.

• Response was lightness of the dried sultanas measured using a Hunterlab D25 L colour difference meter.

• Three tractor speeds and two spray pressures resulting in 6 treatment combinations which were applied to 6 plots, each consisting of 12 vines, using a RCBD with 3 blocks.

• However, these 6 treatment combinations resulted in only 4 rates of spray application as indicated in the following table.

Table of application rates for the sprayer experiment

Tractor Speed (km hour

1)

Pressure (kPa) 3.6 2.6 1.8 140 2090 2930 4120 330 2930 4120 5770

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Set up for analysis• To analyze this experiment set up:

– a factor, Rates, with 4 levels to compare 4 rate means– two factors with 3 levels, Rate2 and Rate3, each of

which compares the means of 2 treatment combinations with the same rate. Table of factor levels for Rate2 and Rate3 in the sprayer experiment

Rate2 Rate3

Tractor Speed (km hour 1

) 3.6 2.6 1.8 3.6 2.6 1.8

Pressure (kPa) 140 1 2 1 1 1 2 330 3 1 1 1 3 1

• The experimental structure for this experiment is:

Structure Formula unrandomized 3 Blocks/ 6 Plots randomized 4 Rates/(3 Rate2+3 Rate3)

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Sources in the ANOVA table

Source df E[MSq]

Blocks 2 2 2BP B

Plots[Blocks] 15

Rates 3 2BP Rq

Rate2[Rates] 1 2BP R2q

Rate3[Rates] 1 2BP R3q

Residual 10 2BP

Total 17

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VII.H Models and hypothesis testing for three-factor experiments

• Experiment with – factors A, B and C with a, b and c levels– each of the abc combinations of A, B and C replicated

r times. – n = abcr observations.

• The analysis is an extension of that for a two-factor CRD.

• Initial exploration using interaction plots of two factors for each level of the third factor.

• use interaction.ABC.plot from the DAE library.

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a) Using the rules to determine the ANOVA

table 3-factor CRD experiment

1. Observational unit – a unit

2. Response variable– Y

3. Unrandomized factors– Units

4. Randomized factors– A, B, C

5. Type of study– Three-factor CRD

b) The experimental structureStructure Formula unrandomized n Units randomized a A*b B*c C

a) Description of pertinent features of the study

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c) Sources derived from the structure formulae

• Randomized onlyA*B*C = A + (B*C) + A#(B*C)

= A + B + C + B#C + A#B + A#C + A#B#C

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d) Degrees of freedom and sums of squares• The df can be derived by the cross product rule.

– For each factor in the term, calculate the number of levels minus one and multiply these together.

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e) The analysis of variance table

• Enter the sources for the study, their degrees of freedom and quadratic forms, into the ANOVA table below.

• Given that the only random factor is Units, the following are the symbolic expressions for the maximal expectation and variation models:– var[Y] = Units – = E[Y] = ABC

f) Maximal expectation and variation models

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g) The expected mean squares

Source df SSq E[MSq] Units n 1 UY Q Y

A a 1 AY Q Y 2U Aq

B b 1 BY Q Y 2U Bq

A#B (a 1)(b 1) ABY Q Y 2U ABq

C c 1 CY Q Y 2U Cq

A#C (a 1)(c 1) ACY Q Y 2U ACq

B#C (b 1)(c 1) BCY Q Y 2U BCq

A#B#C (a 1)(b 1)(c 1) ABCY Q Y 2U ABCq

Residual abc(r 1) ResUY Q Y 2

U

Total abcr 1 UY Q Y

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b) Indicator-variable models and estimation for the three-factor CRD

• The models for the expectation:

ABC

AB AC BC

AB AC

A BC

and equivalent models with a pair of

two-factors interactions

and equivalent models with two factors

interacting and one factor independent

E

E

E

E

Y X

Y X X X

Y X X

Y X X

AB

A B C

G

and equivalent models with two factors

interacting

and other models consisting of

only main effects

E

E

E

Y X

y X X X

Y X

ijk

ij

jk

ik

i

j

k

• Altogether 19 different models.

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Estimators of expected values• Expressions for estimators for each model given in terms of

following mean vectors:

, , , , , and A B A B C A C Β C A Β C

• Being means vectors can be written in terms of mean operators, Ms. 1

G

1A

1B

1AB

1C

1AC

1BC

1ABC

a b c rabcr

a b c rbcr

a b c racr

a b c rcr

a b c rabr

a b c rbr

a b c rar

a b c rr

M J J J J

M I J J J

M J I J J

M I I J J

M J J I J

M I J I J

M J I I J

M I I I J

• Further, if Y is arranged so that the associated factors A, B, C and the replicates are in standard orderM operators can be written as the direct product of I and J matrices as follows:

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c) Expected mean squares under alternative models

• Previously given the E[MSq]s under the maximal model. • Also need to consider them under alternative models so

that we know what models are indicated by the various hypothesis tests.

• Basically, need to know under which models q() 0.• From two-factor case, q() 0 only when the model

does not include a term to which the term for the source is marginal.

• So, when doing the hypothesis test for a MSq for a fixed term,– provided terms to which it is marginal have been ruled out by

prior tests, – it tests whether the expectation term corresponding to it is zero.

• For example, consider the A#B mean square.

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An example: the A#B mean square

• Now, q() 0 for models involving the AB term or terms to which the AB term is marginal.

• All models are of the form

2U ABq • Its expected value is

ABC

AB AC

BC

AB BC

AB AC

AB C

AB

E

E

E

E

E

E

Y X

Y X X

X

Y X X

Y X X

Y X X

Y X

ABC

AB AC BC

AB AC

A BC

AB

A B C

G

E

E

E

E

E

E

E

Y X

Y X X X

Y X X

Y X X

Y X

y X X X

Y X

• So q() 0 for the models

• Hence test for A#B, provides a test for whether AB should be included in the model, provided that the test for A#B#C has already indicated that ABC can be omitted.

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d) The hypothesis testStep 1: Set up hypotheses Term being tested

a) H0: ABC

H1:

b) H0: AB

H1:

c) H0: AC

H1:

d) H0: BC

H1:

e) H0: 1 2 ... a A

H1: not all population A means are equal

f) H0: 1 2 ... b B

H1: not all population B means are equal

g) H0: 1 2 ... c C

H1: not all population C means are equalSet 0.05.

. . .

.. . . .. ...0 for all i,j,k

ijk ij i k jk

i j k

. . .

.. . . .. ...0 for some i,j,k

ijk ij i k jk

i j k

. . ..

0 for all i,jij i j

. . ..0 for some i,j

ij i j

. . ..0 for all i,k

ik i k

. . ..0 for some i,k

ik i k

. . ..0 for all j,k

jk j k

. . ..0 for some j,k

jk j k

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Step 2: Calculate test statistics

• MSqs would be added to this table by taking each SSq and dividing by its df,

• F statistics computed by dividing all MSqs, except the Residual MSq, by the Residual MSq, and

• p values obtained for each F statistic.

Source df SSq E[MSq] Units n 1 UY Q Y

A a 1 AY Q Y 2U Aq

B b 1 BY Q Y 2U Bq

A#B (a 1)(b 1) ABY Q Y 2U ABq

C c 1 CY Q Y 2U Cq

A#C (a 1)(c 1) ACY Q Y 2U ACq

B#C (b 1)(c 1) BCY Q Y 2U BCq

A#B#C (a 1)(b 1)(c 1) ABCY Q Y 2U ABCq

Residual abc(r 1) ResUY Q Y 2

U

Total abcr 1 UY Q Y

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Step 3: Decide between hypotheses For A#B#C interaction source• If Pr{F  F0} p , the evidence suggests that

H0 be rejected and the term should be incorporated in the model.

For A#B, A#C and B#C interaction sources• Only if A#B#C is not significant, then if Pr{F  F0} p , the evidence suggests that H0 be rejected and the term corresponding to the significant source should be incorporated in the model.

For A, B and C source• For each term, only if the interactions involving the

term are not significant, then if Pr{F  F0} p , the evidence suggests that H0 be rejected and the term corresponding to the significant source should be incorporated in the model.

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VII.J Exercises• Ex. VII-1 asks for the complete analysis of a

factorial experiment with qualitative factors• Ex. VII-2 involves a nested factorial analysis –

not examinable• Ex. VII-3 asks for the complete analysis of a

factorial experiment with both factors quantitative• Ex. VII-4 asks for the complete analysis of a

factorial experiment with random treatment factors

• Ex. VII-5 asks for the complete analysis of a factorial experiment with interactions between unrandomized and randomized factors