l Global Research l Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosures Appendix All rights reserv ed. Standard Charte red Bank 201 2 research.standardchartered.com Contents 1. Overview 2 2. Executive summary 8 3. Growth matters 14 4. Is there a consensus on reform? 25 5. Reform has slowed 35 6. Market implications 48 6a. FX 49 6b. Rates and credit 50 6c. Equities 53 Country studies 7. Brazil – In need of infrastructure 58 8. China – Pay households a decent return on their savings 63 9. Hong Kong – Public matters, private solutions 70 10. India – Overcoming the infrastructure deficit 77 11. Indonesia – Infrastructure and bureaucratic reform 83 12. Japan – Labour-market reform 89 13. Nigeria – Escaping the oil curse 94 14. Singapore – The search for total factor productivity 101 15. South Korea – Boosting the services sector 106 16. Sri Lanka – Improving the climate for investment and trade 111 17. Taiwan – Leveraging mainland China‟s rapid growth 117 18. Thailand – Boosting labour productivity 123 19. UAE – Reversing the trend in labour productivity 128 20. United States – The fiscal policy challenge 134 Edited by John Calverley, +1 905 534 0763 [email protected] Special Report | 00:01 GMT 10 October 2012 Economic reform: The unfinished agenda Highlights Economic reform is the key to sustaining strong economic growth in emerging countries and restoring it in developed countries. This report assesses progress in recent years, identifies shifting views on the best ways to accelerate economic development, and provides studies of 14 emerging and major economies. The pace of reform has slowed in many countries, apparently due to a mixture of complacency, resignation, disillusionment with market-oriented reforms, and political resistance. This follows a „golden era‟ of reforms in the 1990s which brought accelerated growth and improved living standards in many emerging countries. We estimate that failure to pursue vigorous reform is costing emerging countries 1-3ppt of GDP growth. Successful reforms could boost GDP pe r capita in 2030 by an extra 20% in Korea, Sri Lanka and Taiwan, 40% in Brazil, China, Indonesia, Nigeria and Thailand, and 50% in India. While there is considerable agreement on the best way for countries to grow and prosper, there are also important disputes, notably on the role of the state and state-owned enterprises. State-led development has b ecome more prominent. In each country study we analyse one key area of reform which would have a major impact. Recurring topics are improving infrastructure, liberalising labour markets and implementing bureaucratic and fiscal-policy reform. For markets, economic reform is usually a major positive, boosting returns and smoothing volatility by encouraging economic growth, lowering interest rates and attracting new investors. Markets often move early, responding to expectations for reform ahead of implementation.
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