SPEC (Social, Political, Economic and Cultural) Barometer December 2011 Survey Findings Prepared by Ipsos-Synovate Release Date: 19 th January 2012
Dec 25, 2015
SPEC (Social, Political, Economic and Cultural) Barometer
December 2011 Survey Findings
Prepared by Ipsos-Synovate
Release Date: 19th January 2012
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Study Objectives
• To determine the knowledge of the general public on:- The IEBC and its Mandate - Electoral Requirements (voter and presidential candidate) and - Electable Seats.
• To assess the perceptions of the general public towards the ICC process in regards to:
- Level of support- Reasons for support or non-support
• Preferred presidential candidate.
Methodology
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Survey Methodology
Dates of polling 12th – 19th December 2011
Sample Size 2,000 respondents
Sampling methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS (proportionate to population size)
Universe Kenyan adults, aged 18+ living in Urban and Rural areas
Data collection methodology
Sampling error +/-2.2 with a 95% confidence level
Structured Face-to-Face interviews at the household level
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Sampling Frame Statistics
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statistics(December 2011)
Population Census as at
2009 (18 years +)
IIEC Voter Register
(August 2010 Referendum)
Registered Voters as at ECK 2007 Voter
Register
Base 2,000
19,462,360 12,616,627 14,088,302
Central 13% 13% 16% 16%
Coast 9% 9% 9% 8%
Eastern 15% 15% 16% 17%
Nairobi 10% 10% 10% 8%
North Eastern 5% 5% 3% 2%
Nyanza 13% 13% 11% 15%
Rift Valley 25% 25% 24% 23%
Western 10% 10% 11% 11%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
The IEBC and its Mandate
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Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)
“Are you aware of the following organisations or institutions?” (By Total)
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Base: Those aware of the IEBC (n=1 ,007)
“Are you aware of the following organisations or institutions?”(By age, gender & setting)
8
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“Other than organizing elections, what are the other functions of the IEBC?” (By Total)
Base: n=1 ,007 (Those aware of the IEBC)
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Voter Registration Requirements
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Constitutional Requirements for Registration as a Voter
Article 83 (1):
A person qualifies for registration as a voter at elections or referenda if the person
(a) is an adult citizen
(b) is not declared to be of unsound mind and;
(c) has not have been convicted of an election offence during the preceding five years
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“What are the requirements for you to register as a voter?” (By Total)
Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)
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Intention to Vote in the Next General Election
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The History of Voter Turnout in Kenya
Source: http://www.idea.int/vt/country_view.cfm?CountryCode=KE
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“Do you intend to vote in the next general election?”(By Total)
Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)
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“Do you intend to vote in the next general election?”(By Province)
Base: All Respondents16
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“Do you intend to vote in the next general election?”(By Gender, Age and Setting)
Base: All Respondents17
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“Why will you not vote in the next general election?”
Base: Those indicating that they do NOT intend to vote the next general elections (n = 180)
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Requirements for a Presidential Candidate to be Declared Winner
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Constitutional Requirements for a Presidential Candidate to be Declared Winner
Article 138/4:A presidential candidate will be declared a winner if :
1. The candidate garners “50%+1” of all votes cast in the election and;
2. The candidate garners at least 25% in more than half (i.e. 24) of the 47 counties.
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Those aware of “Candidate garners 50% +1 of all votes cast”
Base All Respondents; November (n=2,000) December (n=2,000)
Constitutional Requirements for a Presidential Candidate to be Declared Winner (By Total)
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Those aware of “Candidate garners 50% +1 of all votes cast”
Base: All Respondents
Constitutional Requirements for a Presidential Candidate to be Declared Winner (By Province)
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Those aware of “Candidate garners at least 25% of votes cast in more than half (i.e 24) of the 47 counties”
Base: All Respondents
Constitutional Requirements for a Presidential Candidate to be Declared Winner
(By Province)
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Those aware of both requirements
Base All Respondents; December (n=2,000)
Constitutional Requirements for a Presidential Candidate to be Declared Winner (By Total)
Electable Positions
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Electable Positions
New Constitution
1. President
2. Member of Parliament
3. Councilor
4. Governor
5. Senator
6. County Women’s Representative
7. County Assembly Representative
8. Mayor (Cities )
Old Constitution
1. President
2. Member of Parliament
3. Councilor
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“Apart from the President, what other political positions will Kenyans be required to vote for in the next general election?” (By Total)
Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)
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“Apart from the President, what other political positions will Kenyans be required to vote for in the next general election?”(By Province ) Focus on Senator and Governor
Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)
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Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)
“Apart from the President, what other political positions will Kenyans be required to vote for in the next general election?”
Focus on County Women’s Representative
% of those aware of Women’s Representative as an electable position
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Implications of this Study
• Voter education programmes
- Targeted campaigns to youth and women
- Regional communication strategies
The ICC Process
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Those who support the ICC Process – Time Series
Base: All Respondents (n=2,000)
Oct-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Dec-110%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
68%
57%61%
56%59%
54%
Before Ocampo 6 list was unveiled
After Ocampo 6 list was unveiled
Summons issued to appear at The Hague
Pre-ICC confirmation of hearing trials
Post-ICC confirmation of hearing trials
4 weeks prior to the ICC Confirmation of the charges
ruling% who support ICC Trials
32
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“Why are you happy that The ICC is pursuing the six suspects of the post election violence (PEV)?”
Base: Those who support the ICC process (n=1,081)
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Those who support trials ICC process – By Province
(Base All Respondents; December (n=2,000)
54%
46%
62%
47%
66%
44%
76%
40%
66%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Total Central Coast Eastern Nairobi North Eastern
Nyanza Rift Valley
Western
% who support the ICC Process
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“Why are you happy that The ICC is pursuing the six suspects of the post election violence (PEV)?”
Base: Those who support the ICC process (n=1,081)
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Base: Those against the ICC process (n=707)
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“Why are you unhappy that The ICC is pursuing the six suspects of the post election violence (PEV)?”
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“Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate?”By Total
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“Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate?” – Time Series
Trend analysis is for the top 6 aspirants
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In Conclusion
• The ICC ruling on whether to confirm or drop all or some of the charges is likely to change the political landscape and may have an impact of the presidential aspirant ratings.
• As politicians position themselves for action post the ICC Ruling, the varying support levels for the ICC Trials by region does point to potential regional political re-alignments.
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Additional materials available
This press release is supported by the following materials; - A PowerPoint presentation - MS-word press releases - An audio recording in Kiswahili of the key findings - An audio recording of the press briefing in English
These materials can be downloaded from www.synovate.co.ke
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Thank You
Q&A .
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Detailed Poll Methodology
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The target population for this survey was all Kenyan adults aged 18 and above (voting age). A
sample size of 2,000 respondents was drawn, using a 32:68 urban to rural ratio. The margin of error
attributed to sampling and other random effects of this poll’s sample size is +/- 2.2 % margin at 95%
confidence level. This sample size is large enough to make reliable estimates on the target
population opinion. The fieldwork for this survey was conducted between 12 th and 19th, December
2011.
To achieve this sample a randomized multi-stage stratified design using probability proportional to
size (PPS) was used. This ensures that districts with a higher population size had a proportionately
higher sample size allocation. This survey was conducted in 56 administrative and geographical
districts in Kenya.
The interviews were done at household level. Household interviews were preferred because they
allow for pure random sampling ensuring full representation of the various demographics and also for
quality control.
POLL METHODOLOGY
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These face-to-face in-home interviews are also preferred because they allowed for further probing as
respondents have more time to respond to questions as compared to street interviews.
The households were selected using the systematic random sampling procedure. In this case a random
starting point was selected within a cluster of households. From that point the interviewers mainly skipped 4
households until the sample size for that cluster in the district was achieved. One eligible respondent was
then selected from each qualifying household through a household member randomization technique known
as the Kish Grid. This was done to ensure that there was no bias related to household member selection. In
cases where the eligible respondent was not available for interviewing, the field interviewers made at least 3
callbacks. If after the third callback the required respondent was still not available for the interview, the field
interviewer substituted that household for another.
The data collection involved the use of a semi-structured questionnaire having both open and closed ended
questions. Poll questions were structured in a very open manner, with all possible options provided,
including room for other (specify), no response and don’t know. This ensures that there is no bias at all with
the way the questions are asked.
Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied. The fieldwork Supervisors made a minimum
of 15% on-site back checks and accompanied a minimum of 10% of all interviewers’ calls, while the field
managers made 20% back-checks. These back-checks were made within the same day of interviewing.
Poll Methodology (Cont..)
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Total Central Coast Eastern NairobiNorth Eastern Nyanza
Rift Valley Western
2,000 262 176 299 210 95 262 493 203
Urban 37% 37% 51% 24% 100% 21% 27% 29% 21%
Rural 63% 63% 49% 76% 0% 79% 73% 71% 79%
Sampling Frame – Urban & Rural
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MethodologySample distribution – District Level
Province District Rural Urban Total
Central
Kiambu 24 34 58
Kirinyaga 33 10 43
Murang’a 43 10 53
Nyeri 38 12 50
Thika 28 30 58
Coast
Kilifi 26 10 36
Kwale 25 10 35
Malindi 12 10 22
Mombasa 0 55 55
Taita Taveta 13 5 18
Tana River 10 0 10
Eastern
Embu 15 10 25
Kitui 27 10 37
Machakos 31 32 63
Makueni 44 10 54
Mbeere 13 0 13
Meru Central 35 10 45
Meru North 42 0 42
Mwingi 19 0 19
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MethodologySample distribution (continued)
Province District Rural Urban Total
Nairobi
Embakasi 0 30 30
Makadara 0 20 20
Pumwani 0 20 20
Kasarani 0 40 40
Dagoretti 0 30 30
Kibera 0 40 40
Westlands 0 30 30
North Eastern Garissa76 20 96
Nyanza
Bondo15 0 15
Gucha31 0 31
Kisii Central30 15 45
Kisumu15 26 41
Migori22 15 37
Nyamira (North Kisii)27 10 37
Rachuonyo20 5 25
Siaya31 0 31
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MethodologySample distribution (continued)
Province District Rural Urban Total
Nairobi
Embakasi 0 30 30
Makadara 0 20 20
Pumwani 0 20 20
Kasarani 0 40 40
Dagoretti 0 30 30
Kibera 0 40 40
Westlands 0 30 30
North Eastern Garissa76 20 96
Nyanza
Bondo15 0 15
Gucha31 0 31
Kisii Central30 15 45
Kisumu15 26 41
Migori22 15 37
Nyamira (North Kisii)27 10 37
Rachuonyo20 5 25
Siaya31 0 31
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