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THE UNIVERSITY OF ZAMBIA SCHOOL OF HUMANITIES AND SOCIAL SCIENCES
DEPARTMENT OF POPULATION STUDIES
DEM 4110
(Advanced Techniques of Demographic Analysis and Data Evaluation)
SOUTHERN PROVINCE DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS REPORT, 2011-2035
List Of Tables ............................................................................................................................................. iii
List Of Figures ............................................................................................................................................ iv
Acronyms ..................................................................................................................................................... v
3.1 Data Source ....................................................................................................................................... 3
3.2 Description Of Software ................................................................................................................... 3
3.3 Base Population ................................................................................................................................. 4
3.3.1. Determination Of The Extent Of Error ...................................................................................... 4
3.3.1. Data Smoothing .......................................................................................................................... 4
3.3.2 Moving Population To Mid-Year Population. ............................................................................ 5
Bibliography ............................................................................................................................................. xxi
Appendix A: Population, by Age and Sex, and United Nations Age-Sex Accuracy Index, .................... xxii
Appendix B: Reported and Smoothed Population by Age and Sex ......................................................... xxiii
Appendix C: Interpolation and Extrapolation of TFR Using a Logistic Function. .................................. xxiv
Appendix D: Interpolation and Extrapolation of Life Expectancies at Birth. ........................................... xxv
iii
List of Tables
Figure 1: Projected Population of Southern Province (medium variant), 2011-2035 ................................... 8
Figure 2 Projected annual number of births and deaths by selected Year of Projection (medium variant), Southern Province 2011-2035 ....................................................................................................................... 9
Figure 3 Projected CDR per 1000 and CBR ER 1000 by selected Year of Projection (medium variant), Southern Province 2011-2035 ..................................................................................................................... 10
Figure 4: Projected Growth rate of Southern Province by sex, 2011-2035 ................................................ 11
Figure 5: Projected percenage of population aged 0-14, 15-64 and 65+ in Southern Province, 2011-2035 .................................................................................................................................................................... 11
Figure 6: Projected Population by age ( 5-Year Age Groups) and Age-Sex Structure of Southern Province (medium variant), 2015. .............................................................................................................................. 13
Figure 7: Projected Population by age ( 5-Year Age Groups) and Age-Sex Structure of Southern Province (medium variant), 2025. .............................................................................................................................. 14
Figure 8: Projected Population by age ( 5-Year Age Groups) and Age-Sex Structure of Southern Province (medium variant), 2035. .............................................................................................................................. 15
Figure 9: Projected percentage of females aged 15-49 in Southern Province, 2011-2035 ......................... 16
Figure 10: Projected Total Fertility Rates (TFR) for Southern Province and Year of Projection (Medium Variant), 2011-2035 .................................................................................................................................... 16
List of Figures Table 1: Base Population of Southern Province, 2010. ................................................................................ 5
Table 2: Projected Population of Southern Province by sex (medium variant), 2011-2035. ........................ 9
Table 3: GRR, NRR, Mean Age of Childbearing and Child-Woman Ratio Projected for Southern Province and Year of Projection (Medium Variant), 2011-2035 ................................................................ 17
Table 4: Projected Life Expectancy at Birth, (medium variant), 2011-2035 .............................................. 17
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ACRONYMS TFR : Total Fertility Rate
CBR : Crude Birth Rate
CDR : Crude Death Rate
ASFR : Age Specific Fertility Rate
SR : Sex Ratio
LEB : Life Expectancy at Birth
MX : Age Specific Fertility Rate
U5MR : Under-Five Mortality rate
IMR : Infant Mortality Rate
NRR : Net Reproductive Rate
GRR : Gross Reproductive Rate
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1.0 BACKGROUND
Southern Province is one of Zambia's ten provinces, located in the deep southern region of Zambia. The Zambezi River is the province's southern border, and Lake Kariba, formed by the Kariba Dam, lies along the province's south-eastern edge. The eastern border is the Kariba Gorge and Zambezi, and the north-east border is the Kafue River and its gorge, dividing it from Lusaka Province (ZAD, 2013). The provincial capital is Choma. Until 2011 the provincial capital was Livingstone City. The other administrative districts include: Gwembe, Itezhi-tezhi, Kalomo, Khazungula, Livingstone, Mazabuka, Monze, Namwala, Siavonga and Sinazongwe districts.
Southern province home to 1,589,926 people as of 2010 census. The population has increased from 965,591 people in 1990 to 1,212,124 as of 2000.This represents a population growth rate of 3% from 2000 to 2010, and 6.5% from 1990 to 2010 (CPH, 2011). The average life expectancy at birth has maintained a range of 52, 53, 54 and 55 years respectively for the years 1980, 1990, 2000 and 2010. The Batonga are the largest ethnic group in the province headed by chief Monze in monze District, chief Chikanta in Kalomo, and Chief Siachitema in Kalomo. The other ethnic tribe is Toka Leya headed by chief Mukuni and chief Musokotwane in Livingstone and Kalomo respectively.
Southern province hosts the country’s most treasured tourist attractions like the county’s premier tourist attraction, Mosi-oa-Tunya (Victoria Falls), shared with Zimbabwe. In the north-west lies part of the famous Kafue National Park, the largest in Zambia, and the lake formed by the Itezhi-Tezhi Dam (MLGH, 2014).
Apart from tourism, the province also enhances farming as an economic activity due to the Southern Plateau, the large area of commercial farmland and a good transport network. In addition to maize, other commercial farming activities include sugar cane plantations and cattle ranching. Southern Province also has the only large source of fossil fuel in Zambia, the Maamba coal mine in the Zambezi valley (ZAD, 2013).
The province has been undergoing rapid urbanization and population growth since the 1900 and there is need for strategic and informed planning in as far as the education, health and other social aspects are concerned, and hence population projection is necessary for the province (MLGH, 2014).
Population projections of southern province will give better position to assess the need for new jobs, teachers, schools, doctors, nurses, housing, and requirements for resources. Population projections are also important for raising awareness of issues among policymakers. They also provide an important tool for planning and policy formulation. The projections provided in this report will form input into national and local planning during the current inter-censal period and beyond.
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2.0 PROJECTION OBJECTIVES AND SCOPE
2.1 Objectives
1. To project future pattern and trends of the population from 2010 through to 2035 in
southern province.
2. To project future pattern and trends of the annual growth rate from 2010 through to 2035
in southern province.
3. To project future pattern and trends of fertility from 2010 through to 2035 in southern
province.
4. To project future pattern and trends of the mortality from 2010 through to 2035 in southern
province.
5. To project future pattern and trends of the vital events from 2010 through to 2035 in
southern province.
2.2 Scope
The projections are made for the period 2010 to 2035 in southern province Zambia. Because
Southern province has shown some decline in TFR from about seven children per woman (ZDHS,
2007), to about six children per women (Census Report, 2010) but above a TFR of 2.1; Projections
are based on the medium variant assumption as similar trends and patterns will be expected until
2035. Life expectancy is also assumed to be increasing moderately except when affected by
HIV/AIDS.
The projections were made using the cohort component approach. The strength of the cohort
component approach is that it reflects the actual process of demographic change and a variety of
demographic indicators (such as infant mortality, life expectancy at birth, fertility rates, and
percent above or below particular ages) are readily available from the output of such models,
(CSO, 2013).
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3.0 METHODOLOGY
3.1 Data Source
Projections were based on the 2010 Zambian census of population and housing, conducted
between 16th October and 15th November 2010. Complete enumeration in all parts of the country
was achieved by 30th November 2010. The 2010 Census of Population and Housing marked the
fifth national population census that Zambia has successfully conducted since independence in
1964. Previous censuses were conducted in 1969, 1980, 1990 and 2000.
The main objective of the census was to provide accurate and reliable information on the size,
composition and distribution of the population of Zambia at the time of the census. Further, it also
provided information on the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the population of
Zambia at provincial level, demographic characteristics including TFR, Mortality fertility,
mortality and migration.
3.2 Description of Software
All projections were made using the SPECTRUM model. DemProj (the main projections software
in SEPCTRUM) calculations are based on the standard cohort component projection modified to
produce projection for each year from 2010 to 20135. This is excluding urban/rural projections
and the scaling is in units. The input data to the demographic projection with the use of a model
life table are:
5P(a, s) Population by five year age groups (a) and sex (s) in the base year
TFR(t) Total fertility rate by year obtained by the PASEX spread sheet TFRLGST
using three data points from past censuses and data from current census. It
requires upper and lower asymptotes
Migration(a, s, t) Net in-migrants by age, sex and time
ASFR(s, t) Distribution of fertility by age by year
SR(t) Sex ratio at birth by year obtained when calculating for base population
LEB(s, t) Life expectancy at birth with AIDS by sex and year obtained by the
PASEX spread sheet E0LGST using two census data points (past and
current). It also requires upper and lower asymptotes, SR(t)
MX(s, t) Age specific Mortality rates by sex and year
4
The outputs of the demographic projection are
Fertility indicators TFR, NRR, GRR, Mean age of children and child-woman Ratio
Mortality indicators IMR, Life expectancy, MX , under-five mortality rate, Deaths by age
Population indicators Total Population, population aged 0-4, 5–14, 15– 24, 15–49, 15–64, 64+ and Immigration.
Ratios Sex ratios and Dependency ratio. Vital Events CBR,CDR,RNI, Births, Deaths (by age), Doubling
Time and Annual Growth rate
3.3 Base population
3.3.1. Determination of the Extent of Error
The UN-Joint score was used to determine extent of census errors. The Joint Score Index (JS) is
defined as;
)
Where SRS is the Sex-Ratio Score, ARSM and ARSF are age-ratio scores for males and
females, respectively
Based on empirical analysis, if the UNJS is less than 20, the population structure is considered
accurate; if the UNJS is between 20 and 40, the population structure is considered inaccurate; for
any JS score greater than 40, the population structure is considered highly inaccurate, (Siegel and
Swanson, 2004).
An AGESEX PASEX spreadsheet, adopted from U.S. Bureau of the Census, was used to compute
the Joint-score or age-sex accuracy index (see appendix A). This spreadsheet computes age ratios,
sex ratios by age, and the United Nations age-ratio score, sex-ratio score and age-sex accuracy
indexes. The analysis revealed a UN-JS of 24.1. This implies that the data was inaccurate.
3.3.1. Data Smoothing
An AGESMTH PASEX spreadsheet, developed by the U.S. Census Bureau (1994), was used to
smooth the 5-year totals of the population. This spreadsheet smooths the age distribution of a
population using five different smoothing methods. The smoothing methods are: Carrier-Farrag,
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Karup-King Newton, Ariaga, United Nations, and a strong moving average. In order to smooth
the data (correct for errors), United Nations method was used (see appendix B).
3.3.2 Moving population to Mid-Year population.
Census data was collected as at 16th October, 2010 (2010.79), therefore, it was moved to mid-year
(that is, 30th June or 1st July or 2010.50). A MOVPOP PASEX spreadsheet was use to estimate the
base population by sex and age at mid-year based on the reported population at a specified date,
age-specific central death rates (MX) by sex, ASFR, and the annual net number of migrants. Annual
net number of migrants is assumed to be zero due to unavailability of reliable data. Table 1 shows
Age ratio score for males 4.8 Age ratio score for females 4.9 Sex ratio score 4.8 Age-sex accuracy index 24.1 Sample size X Corrected for population (sample) size X X Not applicable. Source: Census of Population and housing 2010
xxiii
Appendix B: Reported and Smoothed Population by Age and Sex, Southern Province 2010
Reported UN Smoothed
Male Female
Total, 0-79 776068 805803
Total, 10-69 501612 527181 500875 526405
0-4 144914 146021
5-9 121728 122514
10-14 109086 110306 108976 109672
15-19 94967 96123 92752.8 95174.2
20-24 69112 76838 71262.9 78187.2
25-29 56689 64505 56436.9 63558.3
30-34 48451 49591 48266.3 50092.1
35-39 39185 37711 38457.3 37210.6
40-44 26634 26462 27542.1 27198.9
45-49 20185 21447 19908.7 21145
50-54 14696 16478 14462.3 15950.3
55-59 9446 10199 9822.69 11088.7
60-64 7453 9697 7251.25 9150.25
65-69 5708 7824 5736.38 7977.63
70-74 4430 6180
75-79 3384 3907
80+ 3591 4464
xxiv
Appendix c: Interpolation and Extrapolation of TFR Using a Logistic Function. - - - - - - - -
Item/ | |
Year Value | Year TFR | Year TFR
- - | - - | - -
Asymptotes: | 2010.50 6.05 | 2010.50 6.05
| 2011.50 6.02 | 2015.50 5.88
Lower 5.00 | 2012.50 5.98 | 2020.50 5.73
Upper 8.00 | 2013.50 5.95 | 2025.50 5.60
| 2014.50 5.92 | 2030.50 5.49
Initial TFR's | 2015.50 5.88 | 2035.50 5.39
| 2016.50 5.85 | 2040.50 5.31
1980.00 7.10 | 2017.50 5.82 | 2045.50 5.25
1990.00 7.00 | 2018.50 5.79 | 2050.50 5.19
2000.00 6.30 | 2019.50 5.76 | 2055.50 5.15
2010.00 6.10 | 2020.50 5.73 | 2060.50 5.12
| 2021.50 5.70 | 2065.50 5.09
| 2022.50 5.68 | 2070.50 5.07
| 2023.50 5.65 | 2075.50 5.06
| 2024.50 5.62 | 2080.50 5.04
| 2025.50 5.60 | 2085.50 5.03
| 2026.50 5.58 | 2090.50 5.03
| 2027.50 5.55 | 2095.50 5.02
| 2028.50 5.53 | 2100.50 5.02
| 2029.50 5.51 | 2105.50 5.01
| 2030.50 5.49 | 2110.50 5.01
| 2031.50 5.47 | 2115.50 5.01
| 2032.50 5.45 | 2120.50 5.01
| 2033.50 5.43 | 2125.50 5.00
- - | 2034.50 5.41 | 2130.50 5.00
| 2035.50 5.39 | 2135.50 5.00
| 2036.50 5.37 | 2140.50 5.00
| 2037.50 5.36 | 2145.50 5.00
Beginning date for | 2038.50 5.34 | 2150.50 5.00
results: 2010.50 | 2039.50 5.33 | 2155.50 5.00
- - - - - - - -
TFR - Total fertility rate.
Source:
xxv
Appendix D: Interpolation and Extrapolation of Life Expectancies at Birth, by Sex Using a Logistic Function.
| Annual life expectancy at birth | Life expectancy at birth every 5 years Item or | Both Female | Both FemaleYear Male Female | Year Male Female sexes - male | Year Male Female sexes - maleAsymptotes: | 2010.50 52.17 57.14 54.62 4.97 | 2010.50 52.17 57.14 54.62 4.97