Southern European Seas: Assessing and Modelling Ecosystem changes.

Southern European Seas: Assessing and Southern European Seas: Assessing and Modelling Ecosystem changesModelling Ecosystem changes

Scientific ObjectivesScientific Objectives

1.1. Assess Assess the the changes or regime shifts changes or regime shifts in the SES ecosystems over in the SES ecosystems over the last 50 years and assess the potential mechanisms that relate the last 50 years and assess the potential mechanisms that relate these changes to changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings. these changes to changes in natural and anthropogenic forcings.

2.2. Assess the current status of the Assess the current status of the SES SES ecosystems ecosystems through analysis through analysis of existing and newly collected data as well as through model of existing and newly collected data as well as through model simulations. simulations.

3.3. Predict changes in the SES ecosystem responses Predict changes in the SES ecosystem responses to likely changes to likely changes in climate and anthropogenic forcings during the next five decades. in climate and anthropogenic forcings during the next five decades.

4.4. Assess and predict changes in the ability of the ecosystems to Assess and predict changes in the ability of the ecosystems to provide goods and services provide goods and services (with potentially high societal (with potentially high societal importance). importance). • Goods: Goods: tourism and fisheries tourism and fisheries • Services: Services: ecosystem stability through conservation of ecosystem stability through conservation of

biodiversitybiodiversity, and mitigation of climate change through , and mitigation of climate change through carbon carbon sequestrationsequestration

Assessing the past changesAssessing the past changes

Collection of existing datasets Collection of existing datasets (more than (more than 3300) on: 00) on: Seawater T, S, DO, Nutrients, DOCPhytoplankton & Zooplankton Fish stock biomass Habitat Types Biodiversity & Alien Species Geochemical parameters Budgets of atmospheric and river inputs

Validation of modelsValidation of modelsAssessmentAssessment Limitations: Few data sets on continuous basis

Temperature differences by 1.5 oC in the past 20 years in the Aegean Sea

Raitsos et al, 2010

-1.5

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1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

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-1.5

-1

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Alien anom 85

Hellenic Waters Anom

rr22=0.68=0.68, , P= P= 0.00990.0099 Invasive speciesSST

Temperature differences by 1.5oC in the past 20 years in the Aegean Sea

Raitsos et al, 2010

Affected also by Affected also by environmental environmental policy.policy.

e.g. the reduction of e.g. the reduction of phosphates in river phosphates in river waterswaters

...In addition to climate, other changes should be accounted for......In addition to climate, other changes should be accounted for...e.g.: the land based nutrient inputs into SESe.g.: the land based nutrient inputs into SES

River inputs of nutrientsRiver inputs of nutrients

Ludwig et al (2009)

Atmospheric inputs Atmospheric inputs of DIN and DIP of DIN and DIP comparable to river comparable to river dischargesdischarges..

~~1/3 of 1/3 of PosidoniaPosidonia oceanicaoceanica meadows have been lost in the last meadows have been lost in the last 50 years. The density of50 years. The density of P. oceanica P. oceanica seems to be decreased by seems to be decreased by about about 50%50%

Marbà, Díaz-Almela and Duarte, in prep.

Counting the decrease of the Counting the decrease of the PosidoniaPosidonia meadows, meadows, COCO22 sequestration in the Mediterranean seems to be less by 1/3 sequestration in the Mediterranean seems to be less by 1/3

PosidoniaPosidonia oceanicaoceanica Meadows Meadows

ES

FR

IT

GR

RO

BG

TRIS

RU

TU

New data sets -Transects of expeditionsNew data sets -Transects of expeditions

Intercalibration stationsIntercalibration stations

Sediment trapsSediment traps

Collection of existing Collection of existing and new data in sub-regional seasand new data in sub-regional seas

Western BlackWestern Black S Sea ea shelf shelf eecosystemcosystem

Eastern Mediterranean Eastern Mediterranean shelf ecosystemshelf ecosystem

NorthNorth--eastern eastern Black Sea shelf Black Sea shelf

ecosystemecosystem

Sicily Straits exchangeSicily Straits exchange

TSS and TSS and N. N. Aegean Aegean Sea exchangeSea exchange

NNWW Mediterranean Mediterranean shelf ecosystemshelf ecosystem

Gibraltar Strait and Gibraltar Strait and Alboran Sea exchangeAlboran Sea exchange

3 cruises

5 cruises, 3 in Haifa Section

3 cruises

3 cruises

1+2 cruises

2 cruises + NURC cruise

gliders

Simila

r zoo

plankto

n

Simila

r zoo

plankto

n

abundan

ce -

differ

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p

abundan

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differ

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Current statusCurrent status

• Deepening of the Deep Chl Maximum

Deepening of the Deep Chl Maximum

• Depletion of nutrients and decrease in conc

Depletion of nutrients and decrease in conc

• Prevalence of smaller size fractions of

Prevalence of smaller size fractions of

phytoplankton with autotrophic prokaryotes

phytoplankton with autotrophic prokaryotes

becoming important in the East

becoming important in the East

• Mesozooplankton variability

Mesozooplankton variability

CS measurements indicate that there is significant natural capacity of the seafloor CS measurements indicate that there is significant natural capacity of the seafloor of the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea to absorb and store atmospheric COof the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea to absorb and store atmospheric CO22

• Impact of EMT (on the nutrient concentrations) Impact of EMT (on the nutrient concentrations) • Increased nutrient inputsIncreased nutrient inputs• Atmospheric inputs important to the budgetsAtmospheric inputs important to the budgets

Marked seasonality

BS State: BS State: recovering recovering

after the 90’safter the 90’s

Current Status of the Black SeaCurrent Status of the Black Sea

Average water temperature in the upper 100m layer higher than any historical value

Hydrological structure and dynamics of the waters determine hydrochemical structure and the quantitative characteristics of species of plankton and nekton in the pelagic zone

NE and South: P-limited in winter while N-limited in fall

West: P-limited in both seasons

Rates of primary production in the W part were 2-3 times higher compared to the E part

Productivity decreased towards the open sea, reaching a range of oligotrophy–mesotrophy.

Synthesis Deliverable 10.6.2

Predict Ecosystem ChangesPredict Ecosystem Changes 2030-2050 -regional models, 2080-2100 -basin scale models2030-2050 -regional models, 2080-2100 -basin scale models

In 2050, 1/4 of the freshwater inputs compared to 1960 will be lost in the Med

Nutrients variability may regionally decrease in the N but strongly increase in S & E

The 21st century will be “warmer” and the vertical structure of the water column will increase its stability (longer permanence of the mixed layer in the euphotic but reduced nutrient supply from the deeper ocean )

The 21st century Mediterranean thermohaline circulation seems to slow down with respect to current conditions, in particular the deep circulation and so the deep Mediterranean parts seem to be more ‘stagnant’

Progressive warming evolves with a northward shift of the surface isotherm, potentially paving the way for meridionalization processes in the basin

Indigenous species with warm-water affinity expand their habitat ranges northward, sometimes at the expenses of the residential cold-water species (tropicalization)

The shadowed areas represent the uncertainty ranges (estimated ad the 90% of the Montecarlo distribution).

Jorda et al (2012)

Time evolution of Posidonia oceanica shoot density relative to current density for different simulations, considering warming and contamination impacts.

The expected evolution assuming no contamination.

Loss of important Mediterranean carbon sinks. The forcasted seawater warming will lead to the functional extinction of Posidonia oceanica in the Balearic region.

Changes in the ability of the SES ecosystems Changes in the ability of the SES ecosystems to provide goods and services to provide goods and services

ModellersModellers• Defined the main diagnostics/ indicators that can be extracted from the output

of the coupled numerical models in order to provide information for the socio-economists. CHALLENGE: to define indirect indicators for the provision of goods and services.

Socio-economistsSocio-economists Identified the ecosystem functions (observed and predicted from model

simulations) that are pertinent to the selected goods and services as well as their changes during the last decades

Carried out scoping analysis to understand and evaluate key stakeholder perceptions referring to the future ability of the SES marine environments.

Developed a sound methodological approach for integrating scientific modelling and socio-economic analysis.

Transferred and/or adapted state-of-the-art analytical and policy tools to investigate the economic welfare implications of alternative development scenarios in the SES ecosystems.

Valuation studiesValuation studiesQuestionnaires to valuate the good “Tourism” - Gulf of LionsQuestionnaires to valuate the good “Tourism” - Gulf of Lions

Consumers seemed to be willing to pay to improve the situation. For the attribute “important biotopes” the average WTP (willingness to pay) is estimated at 29.65€ in order to prevent 20% decrease and gain 20% of important biotopes area in 20 years compared with today levels. Respondents are also willing to pay an amount of 19.14€ to reduce the probability of “jellyfish outbreaks” from 0.9 to 0.1 for two decades.

• 25% of the respondents were guided in their choice by the probability of jellyfish outbreaks, while 38.6% stated that their choice was guided by the attribute ‘important biotopes’.

• 20% of the respondents rejected the idea of paying any amount about measures that sustain important biotopes or protect from jellyfish outbreaks. The main reason (15.3%) is that respondents believe that governments and not citizens must pay the implementation costs of measures.

Economic valuation of the service “Carbon Sequestration”Economic valuation of the service “Carbon Sequestration”Mediterranean as a whole is worth more than a billion dollars as a sink for CO2 according to the SESAME measurements

More informationMore information

Download SESAME publications from www.sesame-ip.eu(under “Documents”)

Link to SESAME’s database

Journal of Marine Systems – Special Issue

Thank youThank you

Project Duration: 48 monthsProject Duration: 48 months

Start: Start: 11stst of January 2012 of January 2012

10 Work Packages 10 Work Packages

Budget 12,973,124 €Budget 12,973,124 €

Project SummaryProject Summary1.1. Identify the interacting patterns of natural and human-derived Identify the interacting patterns of natural and human-derived

pressures, assess their impact on marine ecosystems and design an pressures, assess their impact on marine ecosystems and design an effective and innovative research framework based on sound effective and innovative research framework based on sound scientific knowledge. scientific knowledge.

2.2. Design an innovative, small research vessel to serve as a scientific Design an innovative, small research vessel to serve as a scientific survey tool in very shallow areas.survey tool in very shallow areas.

3.3. Use appropriate scenarios to explore interactions between Use appropriate scenarios to explore interactions between projected human-derived and natural pressures.projected human-derived and natural pressures.

4.4. Develop a framework of scenario-based adaptive policies and Develop a framework of scenario-based adaptive policies and management schemes to help in reaching GES. Help the selection management schemes to help in reaching GES. Help the selection and application of the appropriate descriptors and indicators of the and application of the appropriate descriptors and indicators of the MSFD in the SES. MSFD in the SES.

5.5. Define and rank a feasible and realistic adaptation policy Define and rank a feasible and realistic adaptation policy framework in order to design management schemes.framework in order to design management schemes.

6.6. Promote the principles and objectives of MSFD across the SES.Promote the principles and objectives of MSFD across the SES.