Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC) Agriculture & Fisheries Unit MARS – FOOD Action Bulletin № 1, 2007 CROP MONITORING for FOOD SECURITY South and East Mediterranean Countries Situation at the End of January 2007 Agro-meteorological overview for winter crops
10
Embed
South and East Mediterranean Countries...Agro meteorological Bulletin 1, 2007.South and East Mediterranean Countries 3 Country by Country Algeria The meteorological conditions during
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC) Agriculture & Fisheries Unit
MARS – FOOD Action Bulletin № 1, 2007
CROP MONITORING for FOOD SECURITY
South and East Mediterranean Countries
Situation at the End of January 2007 Agro-meteorological overview for winter crops
Agro meteorological Bulletin №1, 2007. South and East Mediterranean Countries
2
Introduction The present Bulletin is dedicated to the analysis of the agro-meteorological situation in the non-European countries of the Mediterranean basin during the period from the beginning of December 2006 to the end of January 2007. This is a period for the first stages of winter crops development in most countries of the region. Practically in all countries, wheat and barley are the main winter crops. Additionally, sugar beets are cultivated in winter in Israel, as well as potatoes in Morocco. The main part of winter crops is cultivated in rain-fed conditions. In Israel, Libya and Syria about 20-30% of winter cereal crops and in Egypt and Saudi Arabia practically all crops are irrigated. The present Bulletin is devoted to the analysis of the meteorological conditions only for winter wheat. The monitoring of the agro-meteorological situation is based on the analysis of the following dekadal data: minimal, maximal and average air temperature, sums of precipitation and global radiation, dekadal values of the climatic water balance, dekadal maps of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Indexes (NDVI), dekadal maps of the Dry Matter Production. Meteorological data are derived from the outputs of the numerical meteorological model from ECMWF (UK), and were prepared for analysis by METEOCONSULT (NL). SPOT-VEGETATION data were used as a basis for calculation of the remote sensing indicators of crop growth. Data were preprocessed by VITO (BE). After that, dekadal maximal NDVI values were weighted for pixels within which winter crops are cultivated, and then – were weighted again at country level. Thus, weighted NDVI values were used as an indicator of crop status. Dry Matter Production maps were calculated by VITO based on SPOT-VEGETATION data and information about global radiation, applying the Monteith approach. The Bulletin has the following structure. The first pages contain the main results of the analysis. The following pages are dedicated to the analysis of separate indicators of the crop growth during the period of analysis. The background information is given in the following table (statistical data for the year 2006 is not available yet). This is a Bulletin prepared by the MARS-FOOD action, Agriculture & Fisheries Unit, IPSC, Joint Research Centre, European Commission. Acknowledgements. The following organizations were involved in data supply: VITO (BE), METEOCONSULT (NL), ECMWF (UK). Disclaimer. The geographical borders are purely a graphical representation and are only intended to be indicative. These boundaries do not necessarily reflect the official EC position. Legal Notice. Neither the EC nor any person acting on behalf of the commission is responsible for the use, which might be made of the following information. Contact: Jacques Delincé, Head of the Agriculture and Fisheries Unit, fax: +39-0332-789029 Olivier Leo, MARS-FOOD Action leader, [email protected] Igor Savin, Bulletin author, [email protected]
Production and Yield of Wheat in 2005 (FAOSTAT data, last accessed 01.02.2006)
Country Production, 1000 tons
Yield, t/ha
Algeria 2600 1,4 Egypt 8141 6,5 Israel 190 2,5 Jordan 33 1,4 Lebanon 120 2,6 Libya 125 0,8 Morocco 3043 1,0 Palestine Auth. 50 2,3 Saudi Arabia 2400 5,2 Syria 4669 2,5 Tunisia 1360 1,6 Green color indicates figures, which are higher than normal and red color indicates figures, which are lower than normal.
Agro meteorological Bulletin №1, 2007. South and East Mediterranean Countries
3
Country by Country
Algeria The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were favorable for winter crops development, but slightly worse than in the previous season. Remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was close to the previous year.
Egypt The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 and the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 were close to the previous year.
Israel The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were favorable for winter crops development, but slightly worse than in the previous season. Remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was slightly worse than in the previous season.
Jordan The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were favorable for winter crops development, and slightly better
than in the previous season. Remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was close to the previous season.
Lebanon The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were favorable for winter crops development, but slightly worse than in the previous season. Remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was close to the previous season.
Libya The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were close to the previous year. However, remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was better than in the previous year.
Morocco The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were worse than in the previous year. Remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was worse than in the previous year.
Palestine Auth. The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were favorable for winter crops development, and close to the previous season. Remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was close to the previous season.
Saudi Arabia The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were close to the previous year. Remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was close to the previous year.
Syria The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were favorable for winter crops development, but slightly worse than in the previous season. Remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was close to the previous season.
Tunisia The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were favorable for winter crops development, but worse than in the previous year. However, the remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was slightly better than in the previous year.
The situation is detailed in the following pages
Highlights Meteorological conditions during December 2006 -January 2007 were favorable for winter crops and, in general, close to the previous season in all countries, excepting Morocco and some regions of Algeria, where the situation was worse. The wheat yield 2007 is likely to be better or close to normal in all countries of the region. Only in Morocco the yield is likely to by lower than normal.
Agro meteorological Bulletin №1, 2007. South and East Mediterranean Countries
4
Results of the analysis
Comparing with previous season Country Meteorological
Extreme cold air temperature was not observed over cropping areas of the countries of the region. The moisture regime during December-January was better as compared with the previous year in Jordan. It was worse in Maghreb countries and Syria, and it was close to the previous year in other countries (see the map below). In general, the meteorological conditions during December 2006 – January 2007 were favorable for winter crops development in the main cropping areas of the region. The amount of precipitation was unfavorable for rain-fed winter crops only in Saudi Arabia, and in Morocco. The meteorological conditions for the whole current season (October-January) were worse than in previous season in Algeria, Israel, and Morocco, and were better in Jordan. The analysis of crop growth indicators shows that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 seems to be worse than in previous year in Israel, and Morocco, seems to be better in Libya, and Tunisia, and close to the previous year in other countries of the region. A summary of the analysis of meteorological conditions for winter cereals is given in the Table. The last column of the table represents the winter wheat yield 2007 expectation (green figures indicates higher, red – lower, and black – close to normal values). These figures were obtained by the analysis of all crop growth indicators, mentioned in the Bulletin (see last page). The yield expectation values are only indicative.
Favorability of meteorological conditions for winter crop during December 2006-January 2007 (color on the map shows favorability and main limitations (see legend on the left)) Comparison with the conditions of the previous season (hatchings show units, where: br – better radiation regime; bm – better moisture regime; wr – worse radiation regime; wm – worse moisture regime; nodif – conditions are close to the previous year) (grey boundaries show units with croplands)
Agro meteorological Bulletin №1, 2007. South and East Mediterranean Countries
5
Global Radiation and Air Temperature Difference in Global Radiation Sum (kJ/m2) between current and previous seasons (December-January). Cross hatching shows regions, where this difference was higher than 10%, and vertical hatching –than 5%. (grey boundaries show units with croplands)
The amount of radiation was close to optimal for winter crops in all countries of the region. The cumulated radiation during December-January (see the map below) was higher or close to the previous year in most countries of the region. The amount of radiation received by crops from the beginning of current season is higher than in previous season in the most countries of the region (see the table). Average daily temperature was near +5+100C practically everywhere. Tmin was below 00C (-1-20C) in some dekads during December-January only in Morocco, Algeria, Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan. Tmax was not extreme during the period under analysis. The air temperature in general was higher than in the previous season in Maghreb countries, and it was lower in Jordan, eastern Syria, and Lebanon.
Agro meteorological Bulletin №1, 2007. South and East Mediterranean Countries
6
Precipitation Sum Difference in Precipitation Sum (mm) between current and previous seasons (December-January). Cross hatching shows regions with amount of precipitation more than 120 mm during the period December-January, vertical hatching – with 60-120 mm of precipitation . (grey boundaries show units with croplands). - “heavy” rains (more than 100 mm of precipitation per dekad)
Precipitation for rain-fed winter crops
(October-January)
Comparing with previous season
Algeria - Egypt = Israel - Jordan + Lebanon = Libya = Morocco - Palestine Auth. = Saudi Arabia = Syria = Tunisia =
Mediterranean Sea
Libya
Precipitation was scarce during December-January in many countries of the region. Main part of precipitation took place in form of rain, but little part of precipitation in mountainous Morocco and eastern Syria was in form of snow. Heavy rains took place during December-January only in near cost zone of central Algeria. In general, the amount of precipitation during December-January was slightly higher than normal in western Algeria, lower than normal in Morocco, and eastern Syria and close to normal in other countries. Simultaneously the amount of precipitation was higher comparing with the previous year in eastern Libya, and it was lower in Tunisia, Algeria, Israel, Lebanon, Syria, and Morocco (see the map below). The amount of precipitation for the whole current vegetative season (October-January) is higher than normal in Tunisia, Jordan, and eastern Syria, and lower – in Morocco, Algeria, Israel, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. Less precipitation comparing with the previous year was observed in Algeria, Israel, and Morocco, and more – in Jordan (see the table).
Agro meteorological Bulletin №1, 2007. South and East Mediterranean Countries
7
Climatic Water Balance
CWB for rain-fed winter crops
(October-January)
Comparing with previous season
Algeria - Egypt = Israel - Jordan + Lebanon - Libya = Morocco - Palestine Auth. = Saudi Arabia = Syria = Tunisia =
Mediterranean Sea
Syria
S. Arabia
Jordan
Israel
Lebanon
Egypt Libya
Tunisia Algeria
Morocco
The cumulated Climatic Water Balance (CWB) for December-January was positive for croplands of all countries of the region excluding Egypt, eastern Libya, Saudi Arabia, and western Morocco. The climatic water balance situation during December-January was worse than long-term average data for croplands in Syria, and Morocco, and it was close to the average values in other countries. The CWB during the period under analysis was worse than in the previous year in Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine Auth. It was close to the previous year in other countries of the region (see the map below). The CWB cumulated for the whole current vegetative season (October-January) was positive for croplands of all countries of the region excluding Egypt, Libya, western Morocco, and Saudi Arabia. At the end of January, the CWB situation was better than long-term average in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Tunisia, and worse in Saudi Arabia. Simultaneously, the situation with CWB at the end of January 2007 was worse than in the previous season in Algeria, Israel, Lebanon, Morocco, and it was better only in Jordan (see the table).
Palestine Auth.
Difference in Climatic Water Balance (mm) for the period December-January between current and previous season. Vertical hatching shows regions with positive Climatic Water Balance. (grey boundaries show units with croplands)
The analysis of the NDVI profile’s behavior shows that the crop status at the end of January 2007 was better comparing with the previous year only in Libya, and Tunisia. The NDVI indicates worse crop status than in the previous year in Israel, Jordan, Morocco, and Syria. The NDVI curves shows that the winter crop development in Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia is close to the season 2002/2003, in Jordan it is close to the season 1999/2000, in Israel – to 2003/2004 season, in Algeria, and Morocco – to the season 2001/2002, in Syria – to the season 2004/2005, and in Lebanon, Palestine Auth., and Saudi Arabia - to the previous season.
Examples of weighted NDVI profiles for areas with winter wheat and for country level (“min” and “max” are absolute extremes for the period 1999-2006)
The results of the Dry Matter Production (DMP) modeling demonstrate the better situation than in previous season at the end of January in winter cropping regions of Algeria, Israel, Jordan, Palestine Auth., Libya, and Tunisia. The situation in other countries of the region is close to the previous year. The DMP shows that in general the situation is not extreme in all countries of the region, excluding some regions of Morocco and Algeria, where the situation is significantly worse than in the previous season (see the map below). The cumulated DMP curves show that the winter crop development in Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia is similar to the season 2002/2003, in Israel, Palestine Auth., and Morocco – it is close to the season 2000/2001, in Jordan – to the season 1998/1999, in Algeria – to the 2003/2004 season, and in other countries of the region - to the previous season.
Examples of weighted DMP profiles for areas with winter wheat and for country level (“min” and “max” are absolute extremes for the period 1999-2006)
The preliminary winter wheat yield 2007 figures were obtained based on regression analysis between the statistical yield values and separate crop growth indicators. The indicators selected were: NDVI time profile, amount of precipitation cumulated for the period from October to January, cumulated climatic water balance for the same period (CWB), and the results of dry matter (DMP) accumulation modeling (cumulated for the same period). These indicators were first aggregated for the areas with winter wheat at country level. It was found that statistical yields have no significant correlation with CWB values at the end of January for all countries of the region. Statistically significant regression equations were found for some countries between yield and cumulated DMP, and between yield and cumulated precipitation. These equations were applied for the calculation of the wheat yield 2007. The results are presented in the table below. The results of the similarity analysis (search of the year with the similar behavior of the indicator) for the Precipitation, NDVI and DMP curves were used as additional information. The square sums of deviation between the indicator in current and other seasons, as well as extreme deviation values were used for the definition of the year-analogue. The year – analogues for the countries of the region, and corresponding statistical yield figures are presented in the table. The final wheat yield expectation figures were obtained through the expert analysis of all yield prediction values, taking into consideration the qualitative analysis of other meteorological indicators. These values of yield expectation are preliminary, and should be used with caution. They will be updated in the next Bulletin.