Socioeconomic impact of disasters on critical facilities Disaster reduction indicators: safer critical facilities Session 1.5 World Conference on Disaster.

Socioeconomic impact of disasters on critical facilitiesDisaster reduction indicators: safer critical facilitiesSession 1.5World Conference on Disaster Reduction18-22 January, Kobe, Hyogo, JapanTuesday 18 January (Nunobiki Room, 13-15 hours)

R. Zapata-Marti - UN-ECLAC

ECLACs methodology as a toolWhat it doesHow it does itWhat it providesPast and present experienceContribution to the futureDisasters impact reductionSocial and economicalInvestment in increased resilience


ECLACs experience over 30 yearsFrom 1973 in Central America to 2004 Hurricanes in the Caribbean and 2005 Indian Ocean disaster (Indonesia)What it does: provide a standardized sectoral tool, increasingly internationally accepted valuation of disaster damage (physical, in assets, capital, stock, material goods) and losses (in flows of goods and services, in income, in costs)How it does it: by sector analysis comparing the pre disaster, the non disaster expected outcome and the post-disaster scenarioWhat it provides: a valuation that identifies the gap (delta) to be filled, sector by sector (pointing to priorities of sectors, location and social stratification of damage and losses), and a tool for reconstruction strategic planning (needs assessment beyond emergency and humanitarian assistance)


The assessment (following the methodology)the concepts of social sector What are the components of social sectorHousing (the basic unit of analysis being men, women and children integrated into families)What are the critical facilities to be assessed:Health and water (looking beyond hospitals and infrastructure to quality, coverage and level of services)Education (extend it as a prevention and disaster reduction tool)the differential vulnerabilities based on quality of stock of housing, school or health facilities, water and geographic location.


Estimating the socio-economic effects of disastersSecondary (global and cross cutting) effectsEffects on people,& the flow of goods & servicesEffects on people &stock of propertyDirect damageIndirect lossesImpact on macro-socio economic variables*


What is obtainedA quantitative and qualitative assessment of the impact of the disaster (direct & indirect assessment of damages)Implication on diverse indicators of the economic and social conditions in the country or region affected.


Analysis of the Data: Direct and Indirect effects on peopleMortality and morbidityeffectsDirect effectsDeaths directly caused by natural disastersIndirect effectsShort term: Deaths and illness or disabilities resulting from increases in acute respiratory, infectious or parasitic diseases attributed to event, whether in shelters or population at large.Medium term: Deaths, illness and disabilities resulting from the deterioration of living conditions and increasing vulnerability (poverty, malnutrition, deterioration of basic services, etc.) which affect health levels.Men and Women: Studies show certain trends in stress related behaviour: Alcoholism, gambling, criminal activity, violence, and family abandonment. Women suffer higher incidence of depressionViolence against women: Incidence of familial and sexual violence seem to decrease immediately after the disaster and increases steadily during the reconstruction phase


Vulnerability differentials increased by lack of critical facilitiesRisk that an individual, household, community, nation or eco-system will not be able to buffer against external threats or shocks Risk to potential hazard or danger, exposure to mischance or peril given lack of such facilities (i.e. clean water)Threats of immediate events, due to lack of critical activities or of appropriate functioningReduced resilience due to loss of ability of an individual, household, community, nation or eco-system to withstand external shocks through lack of such facilities


As affected in Banda Aceh (Indonesia, Dec. 26, 2004)


The double whammies of IndonesiaThe double whammies of Indonesia (as different from other Indian Ocean affected countries):Earthquake (9.5 Richter scale) and Tsunami (with 15 min. warning and three waves within a two hour period)A disaster on top of a conflict (as also in Sri Lanka)Vulnerability exposed by human intervention in the way the city and Aceh and North Sumatra villages and towns developed (on floodplains, on beaches not protected by mangroves and other vegetation) and hazard related to geology (shallowness of epicenter of original earthquake, expansion and fracture of fault near the Sumatra coast causing slope collapses undersea increasing the force of water pressure and wave force)


The importance of scientific research and informationHave reliable information on the type of eventBuild prediction scenariosKnow the evolution of successive, cumulative eventsAllow early warning, prevention, mitigation and reductionMake information available and understandable by affected or exposed population


Mechanism of Aceh earthquake 12/26 (ERI-Tokyo-University)


Mechanism of the Rupture


Arrival time of seismic and Tsunamiseismictsunami


Chart2

150.1388888889

240.2777777778

32.14285714290.3571428571

400.4166666667

46.8750.462962963

450.5

420.5833333333

400.6666666667

450.9090909091

601.2121212121

601.3888888889

721.4285714286

841.6666666667

961.7777777778

1082

1202.2222222222

Epicenter distance (km)

arrival time (menit)

Sheet1

TsunamiSeismikTsunamiSeismikSelisih

KecepatanKecepatanJarak EpisenterWaktu TibaWaktu Tiba

(km/jam)(km/detik)(km)(menit)(menit)

100325150.138888888914.8611111111

125350240.277777777823.7222222222

1403.57532.14285714290.357142857131.7857142857

1504100400.416666666739.5833333333

1604.512546.8750.46296296346.412037037

2005150450.544.5

2505175420.583333333341.4166666667

3005200400.666666666739.3333333333

4005.5300450.909090909144.0909090909

4005.5400601.212121212158.7878787879

5006500601.388888888958.6111111111

5007600721.428571428670.5714285714

5007700841.666666666782.3333333333

5007.5800961.777777777894.2222222222

5007.59001082106

5007.510001202.2222222222117.7777777778

Sheet1

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

Jarak Episenter (km)

Waktu tiba (menit)

Sheet2

Sheet3

BroadbandMINI PGRTretes


The importance of economic assessment of damage and needsHave a record on damage caused by past eventsEstablish link between level of damage and magnitude or strength of a certain category of eventValue losses to quantify needs for rehabilitation and reconstructionPut in evidence the benefits of mitigation and reductionMake information available to potentially affected or exposed communities (stakeholders)


*TIMEGROSS CAPITAL FORMATIONTHE EFFECT OF SUCCESSIVE DISASTERS ON CAPITAL FORMATION Adapted from Mora, El impacto de los desastres, aspectos sociales, poltifcos econmicos, ambientales y su relacin con el desarrollo de nuestros pases (BID, 1999)


Main Characteristics - Health SectorHealth includes the health system and sanitation infrastructure. the hospitals, health centres, dispensaries, medical equipment or instruments, furnishings and medicine;

sanitation infrastructure includes:the sources, collection work, transmission systems, distribution networks and energy plants which supply and regulate the drinking water supply systems, sewage, excreta, liquid and solid waste disposal systems; rural and urban public and private wells; connections to dwellings; latrines; cisterns; wind mills


Main Characteristics - Education SectorThe physical infrastructure and equipment of the education sector. This includes:

buildings used for normal and adult education, sanitary facilities, general services and libraries

Other installations linked to scientific and educational activities

museums, archives, public libraries and historical/archaeological sites and sporting facilities


Direct damageDirect Damage is all damage sustained by assets and inventories.

It essentially involves damage to property including total or partial destruction of:

physical infrastructurebuildingsinstallationsmachinery and equipment.

The estimated cost of demolishing and clearing areas


Losses (indirect or derived from damage)Indirect Damage is damage to the flows of goods that cease to be produced or the services that cease to be provided

Indirect damage includes:

the costs or increased costs of providing services as a result of the disaster

loss of income as a result of the impossibility or difficulty of providing such services.


Examples of Direct/Indirect Costs


Sector

Direct Cost

Indirect Cost

Housing

Cost of houses damaged

Cost of houses destroyed

Cost of household furniture and appliances lost due to natural disaster

Loss of income from rent

Cost for relocation

Loss of income from backyard economy

Loss of income from home-based small/micro businesses

Health

Cost of damage to hospitals and other health facilities

Cost of damage to equipment

Cost of extra medicine

Cost of vector control

Loss of income due to services which were unable to be provided

Education

Cost of damage to schools and sporting facilities

Cost of demolition and clearing of facilities

Cost of damage of education/sport facilities used as shelters and relief centres

Additional transportation costs

Loss of income to teachers

Day care and other educational services disrupted

Geographic locationIt is important to describe the geographic location of the affected infrastructure of the, health, education and water sectors:

Rural/UrbanCoastalSlopes (either hills or mountain sides) ValleysRemoteness to centres of governanceExtent of coverage


Patterns of Ownership and the coverageIt is important to describe the ownership of the property as private or public

Gender analysis of the ownership pattern would be useful and may have policy implication

Level of coverage (as percentage of total potential users: link to attaining goals of improvement as the MDGs) and setbacks by disasters


Data requirements - EducationTotal number and condition of schools, sporting facilities, libraries, museums, archaeological or historical sites affected & their value

Number of educational/sports facilities damaged as a result of being used as emergency facilities & the cost or repair

The total number and value of social safety net programmes (that address education) that have been disrupted


Data requirements - HealthTotal number of water and sanitation facilities, including garbage disposal facilities, damaged as a result of the natural disaster & their cost

The total number of social safety net programmes (that address health) that have been disrupted & their value

Number of health services increased by the disaster:To attend the injured or affected (both physically and mentally)To prevent outbreaks of diseases associated with disasters


Data SourcesMinistry of Housing, Health, Education, Sports

Ministry of Works

Private Developers

PAHO/WHO

Local Emergency Offices

Civil Society Organizations

Furniture suppliers

Town & Country planning

Government Planning Office or Ministry


Secondary effectsThe outright destruction or damage of facilities and equipment in the social sector produces secondary effects on the macro economic variables in a country.Several particularly relevant secondary effects may be:

Lost contribution to the national economy or production generated by either the health or the educational sector (impact on livelihoods, in terms of productivity, income and competitiveness

Variations in employment rates

Impact on the balance of payments

Impact on the public sector

Impact on inflation


Secondary effects contdSecondary social effects may be:

Delay in country meeting its development goals i.e.:

universal access to primary education

full access to primary health care

adequate water supply


Thank youwww.eclac.clwww.eclac.cl/[email protected]


Make reference to DALYs

Socioeconomic impact of disasters on critical facilities Disaster reduction indicators: safer critical facilities Session 1.5 World Conference on Disaster.

Documents

disaster reduction18

pre disaster

uneclacthe assessment

postdisaster scenariowhat

social conditions

sector analysis

uneclaceclacs experience

uneclaceclacs methodology