SMD STATUS AND ISSUES SMD STATUS AND ISSUES MARCH 2008 MARCH 2008 Alan Stern Associate Administrator/SMD Alan Stern Associate Administrator/SMD www.nasa.gov
SMD STATUS AND ISSUESSMD STATUS AND ISSUESMARCH 2008MARCH 2008
Alan SternAssociate Administrator/SMD
Alan SternAssociate Administrator/SMD
www.nasa.gov
SMD’s Science Program Leads The World
$4.441B/yr budget.
Large Earth science, heliophysics, planetary science, & astrophysics programs.
53 flight missions in operation.
41 flight missions in development.
3000+ operating R&A grants.
These numbers exceed the combined efforts of all other Earth & space science programs of the World.
SMD Major Activities: Next 12 months
PRESENTATION OVERVIEW
SMD Overview & ’08 EventsFY09 SMD Budget OverviewMars Next DecadeMSL IssuesQ&A
FY09 PRESIDENT’S BUDGET: OVERVIEW
SMD MANAGEMENT OBJECTIVES
We will get more science done within our budget.
We will help ensure that U.S. Space Exploration Policy succeeds.
We will promote U.S. leadership across all of SMD’s science disciplines.
We will improve SMD’s actual and its perceived impact on, and relevance to, the public.
We will create a better workplace.
MAJOR FY09 BUDGET INITIATIVES
Increased commitment to Earth Science to accelerate the ES decadal survey.Initiated seven new FY09 mission starts: more than in the past four budgets combined; at least one per SMD science area:
Earth Science: SMAP and IceSat II (2012, 2015 launches)Astrophysics: JDEM (launch in 2014/2015)Heliophysics: Solar Probe Plus (launch in 2015)Planetary: Outer Planets Flagship (launch by 2017) small lunar science orbiter (launch by 2011), and lunar mini-landers (launch by 2014).
Substantial increases in astrophysics, heliophysics, and planetary science R&A/MO&DA.Increased budgets for suborbital rockets and balloons.
NASA AND SMD PRESIDENT’S BUDGET: FY09-FY13
* FY2007 * FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013
Total NASA $16,231.0 $17,300.5 $17,610.7 $18,022.9 $18,457.0 $18,901.6 $19,355.4
Science $4,609.9 $4,706.2 $4,441.5 $4,482.0 $4,534.9 $4,643.4 $4,761.6Earth Science $1,198.5 $1,280.3 $1,367.5 $1,350.7 $1,250.9 $1,264.4 $1,290.3Planetary Science $1,215.6 $1,247.5 $1,334.2 $1,410.1 $1,537.5 $1,570.0 $1,608.7Astrophysics $1,365.0 $1,337.5 $1,164.5 $1,122.4 $1,057.1 $1,067.7 $1,116.0Heliophysics $583.7 $590.9 $575.3 $598.9 $689.4 $741.2 $746.6 DSN / Ground Network $247.2 $250.0
Aeronautics Research $593.8 $511.7 $446.5 $447.5 $452.4 $456.7 $467.7Education $114.1 $137.9 $112.1 $122.7 $120.4 $120.4 $120.4
Exploration Systems $2,837.6 $3,143.0 $3,500.5 $3,737.7 $7,048.2 $7,116.8 $7,666.8Constellation Systems $2,114.7 $2,471.9 $3,048.2 $3,252.8 $6,479.5 $6,521.3 $7,080.5Advanced Capabilities $722.9 $671.1 $452.3 $484.9 $568.7 $595.5 $586.3
Space Operations $5,093.5 $5,526.2 $5,774.7 $5,872.7 $2,900.1 $3,089.9 $2,788.5Space Shuttle $3,295.3 $3,266.7 $2,981.7 $2,983.6 $95.7International Space Station $1,469.0 $1,813.2 $2,060.2 $2,277.0 $2,176.4 $2,448.2 $2,143.1Space and Flight Support (SFS) $329.2 $446.3 $732.8 $612.1 $628.0 $641.7 $645.4
Cross-Agency Support $2,949.9 $3,242.9 $3,299.9 $3,323.9 $3,363.7 $3,436.1 $3,511.2Agency Management and Operations $971.2 $830.2 $945.6 $945.5 $939.8 $950.5 $961.3Institutional Investments $223.8 $319.7 $308.7 $331.7 $335.9 $330.4 $338.3Congressionally Directed Items $80.0Center Management and Operations $1,754.9 $2,013.0 $2,045.6 $2,046.7 $2,088.0 $2,155.2 $2,211.6
Inspector General $32.2 $32.6 $35.5 $36.4 $37.3 $38.3 $39.2
* FY07-08 are consistent w ith IBPD, and exclude latest Operating Plans. Subsequent charts INCLUDE Operating Plans.
SMD BUDGET BY SCIENCE THEME
Heliophysics
Planetary Science
Astrophysics
Earth Science
Ground Network / DSN
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013
SMD’S FLIGHT PROGRAM: JANUARY 2007
Launches by Calendar Year
OSTM
OCO
Glory
CloudSat IBEX
CALIPSO CINDI
TWINS-A TWINS-B SDO GPM Core
ST-6 AIM * Planck * Aquarius MMS
* Hinode THEMIS * Herschel NPP LDCM MIDEX ESSP
ST-5 GLAST Kepler ST-7 RBSP JWST Einstein 1 Earth Syst
STEREO Daw n HST SM-4 WISE LWS SET-1 Mars Scout Discovery * GPM Const Sentinels New Frontiers MIDEX
New Horizons Phoenix * M3 MSL SOFIA Juno Discovery Mars 2013 Earth Syst Discovery Mars 2016 Discovery
CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17
EarthHelioAstro
Missions Led by International Partner Indicated By *Airborne or Suborbital Missions Indicated By Italics
Planetary
SMD’S FLIGHT PROGRAM: JANUARY 2008
Launches by Calendar Year
New Horizons
STEREO
ST-5
Hinode
ST-6
TWINS-A
CALIPSO
CloudSat
Phoenix
Daw n
THEMIS
AIM
* M3
HST SM-4
GLAST
* Herschel
* Planck
SDO
IBEX
LWS SET-1
CINDI
TWINS-B
Glory
OCO
OSTM
MSL
SOFIA
Kepler
WISE
ST-7
NPP
* Aquarius
Juno
GRAIL
LADEE
NuSTAR
LDCM
SMEX
RBSP
Mars Scout -Aeronomy
Lunar Mini-Lander 2
Lunar Mini-Lander 1
* ExoMars
JWST
SMEX
BARREL
BARREL
GPM Core
Discovery
MMS
* GPM Const
SMAP
JDEM
SMEX
Solar Probe
* Solar Orbiter
ICESat II
Mars 2016
New Frontiers
Venture 2
Venture 1
OPF
Discovery
ExoPlanet 1
ES Decadal 3
CY06 CY07 CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16 CY17
EarthHelioAstro
Planetary
Missions Led by International Partner Indicated By *
Airborne or Suborbital Missions Indicated By Italics
NEWLY STARTED MISSIONS
M3 MoO
MMS
IBEX
ST-9
RBSP ExoMars MoO
LDCM
GRAIL
EPOXI MoO
NExT MoO
NuSTAR
Solar Orb MoO
BARREL MoO
OPF
LADEE
Scout 2013
New Frontiers
JDEM
SMEX 2012
SMEX 2013
SMEX 2015
SMEX MoO
Solar Probe
ICESat II
SMAP
FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09
Heliophysics
Planetary
Earth Science
Astrophysics
New Starts Defined as a Phase A Start Year or Final Downselect Year—Whichever is Later.
FLAGSHIP MISSION CANDIDATES
Europa Orbiter Jupiter System Observer (JSO)
Titan Explorer
LUNAR ROBOTIC SCIENCE MISSION INITIATIVE
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
B C & D E
LADEE Launch Goal Mini Lander Launch Goal
Lunar Research and Analysis
ILN Operation Start Goal
Mission of OpportunityScience-Funding-Opportunity Driven
A
Node I & II OperationsScience Definition
Cruise
B EALaunch date to be set during Phase A
TBD during Phase A
LADEE
Mini Lander
LROE+
Possible Intl. Partner Early Operations
EC/D
ESMD SMD
B C & D E
SMD-Discovery Mission
Cruise
GRAIL
SDTB/C/D duration finalized during A
020308
SMD
-Ful
l Moo
n M
issi
ons
Science Definition SDT
Mars Program - Next DecadeLaunch Year
2020
TBD mission based on
budget and science feed-forward
TBD mission based on
budget and science feed-forward
MSR Element #1MSR Element #1
Sample Receiving Facility online by 2022
MSR Element #2MSR Element #2
MARS BUDGET HISTORY
Mars, as % of Total Planetary Funding, Since 1959
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 12
Mariner
Viking
Mars Observer
MGS, Pathfinder, Mars 98, Odyssey, MER, MRO, Phoenix,
MSL, Scout…
1985-2013 average = 27.3%
PLANETARY DIVISION BUDGET SPLITS
FY09 President's Budget, $1330M
GRAIL9%
Juno18%
Lunar Science Program8%
PDS & Curation 1%
MSL17%
Future Discovery4%
Discovery Op Msn + M34%
Mars Op Msn8%
Scout 13, ExoMars & beyond2%
Cassini, Rosetta, Hayabusa
OPF 1%
NF Op Msn + Mgt1%
R&A
Technology5%
MSL
MSL COST GROWTH HISTORY
August 2006: MSL Confirmed at a development (C/D) cost of $972M.– Program added $32M to increase reserves to 35% (~60% on the S-Curve).
Late ’06/early ’07: ~$20M in descopes were taken to control cost growth:– TLS, Corer, Sample Crusher, CheMin dual X-ray source, EDL latitude
performance.June ’07: MSL descopes and cash of $62M. Sources of growth included:
– Instruments; SAM, CheMin, ChemCam, Malin Space Science Systems cameras.
– Mechanical Design of Rover body, Corer/drill, Sample Acquisition/Sample Processing and Handling
– Actuator Design– Thermal Protection System testing– Parts Procurements– Fabrication Services/Labor
Jan ’08: MSL estimated need for $165M-$200M cash. Sources of growth include:– Actuators, Thermal Protection System testing– Parts, Subsystems, Testing– Fabrication Services/Labor
MSL GROWTH BY SUBSYSTEM
Largest contributors to growth
120000
100000
nds 80000
as 60000
hou
t$ 40000
20000
0
m m e m E t & na
vc P ce m mt
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syst n r L er
Ca e cfi te PS PFS Mg c M aS ste O
f ga ff ont P
FS e asy M SA or N&C r I d D he s E ver
ni
m su O F e P
t mm le c sy /S G m rae C al ot
n al r
a vioe
Ch a c s c e l C
t n as je ig te PL T al b Ch
io u A em an s & c c A
Da s r m ste C
ie o de sy
Ther sn sy S
c s n
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i stGN ic i
s n
ect a h ha
n
h c cc
rou ProG Mi Ms
PPropu M e
roj MegFli L p Me M
April EAC July EAC Nov EAC
NOTE: See also Aerospace Corp EVM Charts in b/u at WBS levels 3/4
Radar
ATLO
w/EMs
ATLO
ATLO KSCFlt. Avionics
Descent Stage
DrillR
adar
CDRJune 2007
LaunchSept. 2009July 2008March 2008
ShipMay 2009
Deliveries
As of Jan. 2008EAC increased > $200M
Since June 2007
KSCDeliveries
Jan. 2009
Flt. Heatshield
Flt. AvionicsDescent Stage
Drill
As of June 2007CDR
Possible delays but flexibility available
Flt. Heatshield
MSL Development Flow Compression
Cost Variance & Schedule Variance Are Increasing
$-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Nov-07
BCWSBCWPACWP
SV = -$32,084
CV = -$90,855
SPI = 0.914
SCI = 0.723
CPI = 0.791
}
CumulativePerformance
Sensitive But Unclassified (SBU)
MSL PROJECT BUDGET GROWTH HISTORY
MSL Historical Direct LCC
$1,400
$1,450
$1,500
$1,550
$1,600
$1,650
$1,700
$1,750
$1,800
$1,850
PNAR(2/2006)
NAR(8/2006)
Confirmation(8/2006)
Current(12/2007)
Projectedw /PICA
JPL projectedEAC
$(M
)
12/07/07Current JPLProjected
Blue line $1699Mcorresponds tothe 70% onSRB’s S-curvedevelopment cost predicted at confirmation