Slide: 1 J. Schmetz, R. Stuhlmann, P. Schlüssel and D. Klaes EUMETSAT Relevance of NWP Impact Studies for Future Satellite Programmes
Slide: 1
J. Schmetz, R. Stuhlmann, P. Schlüssel and D. Klaes
EUMETSAT
Relevance of
NWP Impact Studies
for Future Satellite
Programmes
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
1. Informed decisions on future operational meteorological satellites and related services must be based on careful analyses
2. Important is: i) continuity and robustness of services and ii) evolution of services based on new requirements
3. Recall that optimum use of (satellite) observations (for NWP) requires learning how to use the data
4. An established way to demonstrate usefulness is through impact studies with an NWP system
5. This presentation takes examples from the future EUMETSAT Programmes Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) and Post-EPS (EUMETSAT Polar System) to develop suggestions for an improved support by NWP to future satellite planning and development
Content
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
Reasons behind improvements in NWP due to satellite data
(from Uccellini, 2007)
Improvement is due to a balance among:
• Observations
• Data Assimilation & Model technology
• Computing resources
Estimated 30 - 40% of improvement from observations (principally global LEO satellite data) and 60 - 70% from data assimilation and modeling techniques and computing resources
=> This suggests that R&D for advanced utilisation of future missions should commence early , i.e. well before launch. This activity should be clearly separated from the development of an operational ground segment
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
End ofSatellite Life
Satellite Lifetime
Utilisationof data(or return on Investment)
Ideal learning curve
Actual learning curve
Pre-launch investment in research on utilisation will increase the return on investment
Operational readiness(should be shortly after launch)
100%
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
Recalling the status of EUMETSAT future programmes:
- Meteosat Third Generation (MTG)
- Post-EPS (Metop next)
=> The question here is: How can we help those two satellite programme developments or future programme development in general?
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
1. Overall Phase A Status
Phase A
EUMETSAT roadmap
20092008 20112007
Phase B Start Phase C/D
2012 20132010
ESA roadmap
20092008 2011
2007
2012 20132010Council Approved the
MTG PP
Council Full Programme
Approval
ESA C-MIN 2008
Approval full Programme
Go-ahead for Phase B
PCR
PRR
Phase A PreparatoryProgramme
PRRPCR
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
MTGMSG
MOP/MTP
4 observation missions:- Combined Imager: 16 channels
- Infra-Red Sounder- Lightning Imager
-3-axis stabilised satellites - Twin Sat configuration
2,5 and 2,2 t
1 observation mission:-MVIRI: 3 channels-Spinning satellite
800 kg
2 observation missions:- SEVIRI: 12 channels- GERB- Spinning satellite Class 2-ton
1977 20152002
Atmospheric Chemistry Mission (UVS)coordinated with ESA for implementation
via GMES Sentinel 4/5
Implementation of the EUMETSAT Mandate for the Geostationary
Programme
... 30 years of continuous operations achieved ...
MTG will provide continuity of EUMETSAT Services
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
Coverage Repeat cycle
Full Disk Coverage 18ox18o
60 min
Local Area Cov. 18ox6o 10 min
MTG IR Sounding Mission
MissionBand
IRS-1 700 770
IRS-2 770 980
IRS-3 980 1070
IRS-4 1070 1210
IRS-6 1600 2000
IRS-7 2000 2175
cm-1Frequency range
Main Contribution
CO2
Surface, Clouds
O3
Surface, Clouds
H2O,
CO,
1800 channelsSpec.res. 0,62 1/cm
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
Coverage Repeat cycle
Full Disk Coverage 18ox18o
30 min
Local Area Cov. 18ox6o 10 min
MTG IR Sounding Mission
Priorities IRS Mission
- Atmospheric dynamic variables with high vertical resolution (e.g. water vapour flux, wind profile, transport of pollutant gases)
- More frequent information on Temperature and Humidity profiles for NWP (regional and global)
- Monitoring of instability / early warning of convective intensity
- Cloud microphysical structure
- support chemical weather and air quality applications
Hyperspectral IR sounding with focus
on time evolution of vertically resolved water vapour structures
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
Greatly Improved Atmospheric Motion Vectors with hyperspectral sounder (Figure courtesy of C. Velden)
Current GOES High-spectral
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
Salient points from: Benefits expected from the infra-red sounder (IRS) on Meteosat Third Generation
Report to EUMETSAT Council by a working group: J. Eyre, V. Casse, S. English and J. Pailleux
• MTG-IRS is an infra-red sounder of high spectral resolution which will provide information on atmospheric temperature, humidity and wind at high horizontal, vertical and temporal resolution
• MTG-IRS data will contribute both through assimilation into convective-scale, regional and global NWP models and through nowcasting products. They will be particularly important for observing the advection and convergence of low-level moisture associated with some types of severe weather in Europe
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
Slides from MTG OSSE study by H. Huang et al.
Xiang-Yu Huang, Hongli Wang, Yongsheng Chen
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A.
Xin Zhang
University of Hawaii, Honolulu. Hawaii, U.S.A.
Stephen A. Tjemkes, Rolf Stuhlmann
EUMETSAT, Darmstadt, Germany
MTG-IRS: An Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) on regional scales
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
Slides from MTG OSSE study by H. Huang et al. Background:
o IRS sounding Mission on MTG will provide high-resolution data which includes temperature and water vapor information.
o Realistic mesoscale details in moisture are important for forecasting convective events (e.g., Koch et al. 1997; Parsons et al. 2000; Weckwerth 2000, 2004).
o Objective: To document the added value of water vapor observations derived from a hyperspectral infrared sounding instrument on a geostationary satellite for regional forecasting.
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
observed 6-h rainfallobserved 6-h rainfall simulated 6-h rainfallsimulated 6-h rainfall
The observation is on The observation is on Polar Stereographic Projection Grid. Grid.The simulated rainfall is on The simulated rainfall is on Lambert Projection Grid. Grid.The color scales are different.The color scales are different.
0600 UTC 12 Jun0600 UTC 12 Jun 0600 UTC 12 Jun0600 UTC 12 Jun
Slides from MTG OSSE study by H. Huang et al. Case A: 11 June CaseCase A: 11 June Case
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
Slides from MTG OSSE study by H. Huang et al. Summary
• Three storms are well reproduced in the 5 day nature run.
• The calibration experiment shows that the real and simulated
observations have the similar impacts on the analyses increments
and forecasts differences.
• The forecast skill is improved when MTG-IRS T and q retrieved
profiles are assimilated.
Added comment => Demonstration of impact of novel satellite
observing system is very important work; concerted action within
(to be) established framework is beneficial
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
1. Post-EPS Status & Roadmap
Long Term Roadmap
Phase BPhase 0 Phase A
IR and MW SoundingVIS/IR Imaging
Missions
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Phase C/D
Other Missions
Prep. Programme
Development and Operation ProgrammeEUMETSATApproval Processes
ESA Programme
ESA Ministerial Conf.go ahead for phase B/C/D
Operations
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
Post-EPS Candidate Missions
Name Rank
High-Resolution Infrared Sounding (IRS) 3Microwave Sounding (MWS) 3Scatterometry (SCA) 3VIS/IR Imaging (VII) 3Microwave Imaging (MWI) - Precipitation 2Microwave Imaging (MWI) - Ocean and Land 2Radio Occultation Sounding (RO) 2Nadir viewing UV/VIS/NIR - SWIR Sounding (UVNS) 1Doppler Wind Lidar (DWL) 1Multi-viewing, Multi-channel, Multi-polarisation Imaging (3MI) 1Dual View Radiometry (DVR) 1Radar Altimetry (ALT) 1
Note: Rank value 3: highest priority
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
Study by ECMWF on ‘Observing System Experiments for the evaluation of degraded EPS/Post-EPS instrument scenarios
(1)
• Purpose of study is assessment of detrimental impact of loss Metop instruments on NWP skill
• Performed by ECMWF with operational model and 4-d variational data assimilation
• Study is ongoing• Some preliminary main results for forecast verification for summer
2007: combined effect of withdrawing all Metop instruments is much
larger than impact from withdrawal of individual instruments or all conventional sounders (AMSU-A, MHS and HIRS),
12 – 24 hour tropical humidity scores are negatively affected, after 24 hrs a small positive impact at higher latitudes; this is presumably due to added variability from additional observations
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
Study by ECMWF on ‘Observing System Experiments for the evaluation of degraded EPS/Post-EPS instrument scenarios
(2)
Conclusion on data withdrawal studies:
• they are useful to substantiate a priority ranking for future satellite missions
• they are useful to evaluate the robustness of the operational satellite observing system
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
Thought on an operational deployment scenario: ‘Near’ simultaneous observations from polar orbit by
trains of satellites
• 4-D Var assimilation makes need for distribution of observations over time less critical ...
• Process studies and research benefits from near simultaneous observations of many parameters => this will advance NWP model physics
• => Trains of satellites might be an option for operational and research missions … serves operational (NWP) requirements and fosters research on physics?
• Requires detailed studies • Could be topic for CGMS and CEOS
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
Meteosat-8 monitors deep convective clouds
Area over central Africa
Red pixels:T6.2 > T10.8
How can this be explained?
=> cloud tops overshooting into lower stratosphere - confirmed by “Cloudsat” observations
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
Cloudsat explains physics in areas with T6.2 > T10.8(from Cloudsat website and adapted by Chung et al., 2007)
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
• OSEs are a good tool to provide guidance on priorities of future missions and to demonstrate the robustness of the GOS
• WMO should establish a process that guides activities to demonstrate the impact of new satellite missions (e.g. guidance on best practice … as well as coordination of such activities as part of future planning of a ‘Joint space-based observing systems’);
• A WMO concerted effort on performing OSSEs in support of future satellite missions .… this is ongoing
• => Benefits: Will be an additional element in support of the planning and coordination of a future GOS from outset. It could also increase the incentive to perform satellite/instrument development in a joint and cost-effective manner.
Conclusions and Suggestions (1)
CBS OPAG-IOS: 4th Workshop on the Impact of Various Observing Systems on NWP, WMO, 19 -21 May 2008
• Work toward the ‘full exploitation’ of new elements of a satellite observing system should be part of satellite programme development, i.e. the development of ‘new science’ for the full utilisation of a satellite mission should be part of a satellite development (this ought to be different from the development of the operational ground segment)
• => Benefit: Optimum use is reached quicker, resulting in higher return on investment
• Further issues and questions:
To what extent is it useful to fly future polar research and operational satellite missions as ‘trains’? This would help understanding processes and advance model physics.
Is guidance needed on choices between diversity of polar observations and better temporal coverage with similar/same observation (or how many of a kind is enough)?
Conclusions and Suggestions (2)