1 Simulating the mid-Holocene, Last Interglacial and mid-Pliocene climate with EC-Earth3-LR Qiong Zhang 1 , Ellen Berntell 1 , Josefine Axelsson 1 , Jie Chen 1,2 , Zixuan Han 1 , Wesley de Nooijer 1 , Zhengyao Lu 3 , Qiang Li 1 , Qiang Zhang 1 , Klaus Wyser 4 , Shuting Yang 5 1 Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 10691, Sweden 5 2 College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China 3 Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, 22100, Sweden 4 Rossby Centre, Swedish Metrological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, 60176, Sweden 5 Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, 2100, Denmark Correspondence to: Qiong Zhang ([email protected]) 10 Abstract. As global warming is proceeding due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, the Earth system moves towards climate states that challenge adaptation. Past earth system states are offering possible modelling systems for the global warming of the coming decades. These include the climate of the Mid-Pliocene (~3 Ma), the Last Interglacial (~129-116 ka), and the Mid-Holocene (~6 ka). The simulations for these warm past periods are the key experiments in the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) phase 4, contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Paleoclimate 15 modelling has long been regarded as a robust out-of-sample test-bed of the climate models used to project future climate changes. Here, we document the model setup for PMIP4 experiments with EC-Earth3-LR and present the large-scale features from the simulations for the mid-Holocene, the Last Interglacial, and the mid-Pliocene. Using the pre-industrial climate as a reference state, we show global temperature changes, large scale Hadley circulation and Walker circulation, polar warming, global monsoons, and the climate variability modes (ENSO, PDO, AMO). The EC-Earth3-LR simulates reasonable climate 20 responses during past warm periods, as shown in the other PMIP4-CMIP6 model ensemble. The systematic comparison of these climate changes in three past warm periods in an individual model demonstrates the model's ability to capture the climate response under different climate forcings, providing potential implications for confidence in future projections with EC-Earth model. 1 Introduction 25 Looking back on Earth's history, the warm climate that we are now experiencing is no exception. Several warm periods offer possible geological analogues for the future: the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (3.264–3.025 million years ago), the Last Interglacial (129,000–116,000 thousand year ago), and the Mid-Holocene (6000 years ago). Mid-Pliocene is the most recent period with atmospheric CO2 compared to the present (approximately 400 ppmv) (Pagani et al., 2010), with average annual surface temperatures of roughly 1.8 °C to 3.6 °C warmer than pre-industrial temperatures, reduced ice sheet size and increased 30 sea levels (Haywood et al., 2013). Global mean annual temperatures during the Last Interglacial were approximately 0.8 °C
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Simulating the mid-Holocene, Last Interglacial and mid-Pliocene climate with EC-Earth3-LR Qiong Zhang1, Ellen Berntell1, Josefine Axelsson1, Jie Chen1,2, Zixuan Han1, Wesley de Nooijer1, Zhengyao Lu3, Qiang Li1, Qiang Zhang1, Klaus Wyser4, Shuting Yang5 1Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, Stockholm, 10691, Sweden 5 2College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China 3Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, 22100, Sweden 4Rossby Centre, Swedish Metrological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, 60176, Sweden 5Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, 2100, Denmark
Office, 2020, provided under a Non-Commercial Government Licence http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/non-
commercial-government-licence/version/2/
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