March 17, 2005 2005 USDA Greenhouse Gas Sympos ium 1 US Carbon Trends Spatial and Temporal Patterns of the Contemporary Carbon Sources and Sinks in the Ridge and Valley Ecoregion of the United States Shuguang Liu and Thomas Loveland USGS National Center for Earth Resources Observation and Scien Sioux Falls, SD 57198
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Shuguang Liu and Thomas Loveland USGS National Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science
Spatial and Temporal Patterns of the Contemporary Carbon Sources and Sinks in the Ridge and Valley Ecoregion of the United States. Shuguang Liu and Thomas Loveland USGS National Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science Sioux Falls, SD 57198. Outline. The US Carbon Trends Project - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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March 17, 2005 2005 USDA Greenhouse Gas Symposium 1
US Carbon Trends
Spatial and Temporal Patterns of the Contemporary Carbon Sources and Sinks in
the Ridge and Valley Ecoregion of the United States
Shuguang Liu and Thomas Loveland
USGS National Center for Earth Resources Observation and ScienceSioux Falls, SD 57198
March 17, 2005 2005 USDA Greenhouse Gas Symposium 2
US Carbon Trends
Outline
The US Carbon Trends ProjectResearch QuestionsMethodology
The Ridge and Valley EcoregionLand Cover ChangeSpatial and Temporal Variability of C
Stocks and Fluxes
March 17, 2005 2005 USDA Greenhouse Gas Symposium 3
US Carbon Trends
Overarching Research Questions of Overarching Research Questions of the US Carbon Trends Projectthe US Carbon Trends Project
What is the spatial, temporal, and sectoral variability of What is the spatial, temporal, and sectoral variability of conterminous conterminous U.S. land cover changeU.S. land cover change from 1973 to 2000. from 1973 to 2000.
What are the spatial and temporal distributions of What are the spatial and temporal distributions of carbon sources and sinkscarbon sources and sinks, and therefore the dynamics of , and therefore the dynamics of carbon storage in the conterminous U.S.?carbon storage in the conterminous U.S.?
What are the What are the major driving forcesmajor driving forces that dictate the that dictate the evolution of US terrestrial carbon storage and the CO2 evolution of US terrestrial carbon storage and the CO2 exchange between the land and the atmosphere? exchange between the land and the atmosphere?
What are the major What are the major uncertaintiesuncertainties and knowledge gaps and knowledge gaps associated with estimating regional and national carbon associated with estimating regional and national carbon dynamics?dynamics?
March 17, 2005 2005 USDA Greenhouse Gas Symposium 4
US Carbon Trends
US Land Cover ChangeUS Land Cover Change
There is no consistent database available There is no consistent database available that characterizes the contemporary US that characterizes the contemporary US land cover change, because land cover change, because Land cover change mapping over Land cover change mapping over
large areas is a major effortlarge areas is a major effort Labor intensiveLabor intensive Money (funding sources)Money (funding sources)
March 17, 2005 2005 USDA Greenhouse Gas Symposium 5
US Carbon Trends
Thousands of Sampling Blocks
• Sampling units are 20- or 10-km2.
• Samples randomly selected within strata.
• Sample size based on expected spatial variability of change in the strata.
US Land Cover Change US Land Cover Change DetectionDetection
Probability-based sampling strategy used to provide efficient and reliable estimates of land cover change over large areas. Goal is to detect within one percent of actual change at 85% confidence level.
Ecoregions are sampling strata Land cover change was detected using Landsat images (i.e., 1973,
1980, 1986, 1992, and 2000)
March 17, 2005 2005 USDA Greenhouse Gas Symposium 6
o An advanced modeling systems for spatially explicit simulation of biogeochemical cycling over large areas
o Developed at USGS National Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science
o Deployment of the encapsulated plot-scale model in space is based on a Joint Frequency Distribution of the major controlling variables (e.g., land cover, climate, soil, etc.).
o Included data assimilation algorithmso It includes a dynamic land cover/use change submodelo Stochastic simulations to incorporate uncertainties in input datao Uncertainty estimate of carbon dynamicso Major applications (US, Africa, and Central America)
March 17, 2005 2005 USDA Greenhouse Gas Symposium 7
US Carbon Trends
Land Cover: USGS Land Cover TrendsSoil: STATSGOClimate: CRTUS2.0 (1900 – 2000)N Deposition: National Atmospheric Deposition ProgramCrop Information: USDA Agricultural Census DataFIA: Forest biomass, NPP, Age Distribution
Thousands of Sampling Blocks
GEMS
Carbon dynamics simulated at 60 m x 60 m spatial resolution within 20 km x 20 km or 10-km by 10-km sampling blocks
National Benchmark Databases
Spatially Explicit Modeling
March 17, 2005 2005 USDA Greenhouse Gas Symposium 8
(A) Annual rate of land cover change during four time periods. (B) the total share percentage of six major land cover change activities (C through F) in the total change rate, and (C through F) the share percentages of the major land cover change activities.
Land Cover Change 1973-2000Land Cover Change 1973-2000
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US Carbon Trends
Forest Inversion
FIA data: biomass stock by age class (therefore biomass accumulation rates implicitly used) and total standing biomass
MODIS: annual NPP 2000-2001
March 17, 2005 2005 USDA Greenhouse Gas Symposium 13
US Carbon Trends
C Sink vs. C Sequestration
C Sequestration = C Sink - C Removal
and
C Removal = GrainYield + WoodHarvested
March 17, 2005 2005 USDA Greenhouse Gas Symposium 14
US Carbon Trends Ridge and Valley Ecoregion
Interannual and Spatial Variability (Blocks)Interannual and Spatial Variability (Blocks)Data show block-scale annual averages from 1973 to 2000;X axis shows spatial variability across 10-km by 10-km blocks;Y axis shows interannual fluctuations by blocks.
Data show block-scale annual averages from 1973 to 2000;X axis shows spatial variability across 10-km by 10-km blocks;Y axis shows interannual fluctuations by blocks.
March 17, 2005 2005 USDA Greenhouse Gas Symposium 15
US Carbon Trends Ridge and Valley Ecoregion
Interannual and Spatial Variability (Blocks)Interannual and Spatial Variability (Blocks)Data show block-scale annual averages from 1973 to 2000;X axis shows spatial variability across 10-km by 10-km blocks;Y axis shows interannual fluctuations by blocks.
Data show block-scale annual averages from 1973 to 2000;X axis shows spatial variability across 10-km by 10-km blocks;Y axis shows interannual fluctuations by blocks.
Net Primary Productivity (NPP)
Total Carbon Stock Change
Soil Organic Carbon Change
Large interannual variability
C sequestration strength increases from north (lower block ID numbers) to south;
Large interannual variability
Relatively smaller variability
March 17, 2005 2005 USDA Greenhouse Gas Symposium 16
US Carbon Trends Ridge and Valley Ecoregion
C Stock and Land Cover Composition (Blocks)C Stock and Land Cover Composition (Blocks)
C stock at the block scale is
1. Positively correlated to forest fraction;
2. Negatively correlated to cropland fraction;
3. Not related to other land cover types.
C stock at the block scale is
1. Positively correlated to forest fraction;
2. Negatively correlated to cropland fraction;
3. Not related to other land cover types.
March 17, 2005 2005 USDA Greenhouse Gas Symposium 17
US Carbon Trends Ridge and Valley Ecoregion
C Sequestration and Land Cover Composition (Blocks)C Sequestration and Land Cover Composition (Blocks)
C sequestration at the block scale is
1. Positively correlated to forest fraction;
2. Negatively correlated to cropland fraction;
3. Not related to other land cover types.
C sequestration at the block scale is
1. Positively correlated to forest fraction;
2. Negatively correlated to cropland fraction;
3. Not related to other land cover types.
March 17, 2005 2005 USDA Greenhouse Gas Symposium 18