6/10/2008 1 Ship Emissions Impacts James J. Corbett, University of Delaware Atmospheric Chemistry, Climate, and Transboundary Air Pollution: A Joint TF HTAP / NAS / AC&C Workshop The Liaison Hotel, 415 New Jersey Ave NW, Washington DC, 9-13 June 2008 Purpose: Review our current understanding of ship emissions transboundary impacts Containership Tanker Bulk Carrier General Cargo Refrigerated Cargo Ro-Ro Goal: Explore ship emissions impacts within goods movement context Overview Freight Transport Passenger Hypothesis: Ship emissions represent one mode of the fast-growing global freight sector; contribute to large regional and global transboundary impacts. Impacts overview Air Quality and Health Radiative Forcing Discussion (c) 2008, Corbett and Winebrake Synthesis: Shipping offers mode-rebalancing advantages for CO2; enabled by reduction of pollution health risks. Either way, this is a systems problem.
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6/10/2008
1
Ship Emissions ImpactsJames J. Corbett, University of Delaware
Atmospheric Chemistry, Climate, and Transboundary Air Pollution:A Joint TF HTAP / NAS / AC&C Workshop
The Liaison Hotel, 415 New Jersey Ave NW, Washington DC, 9-13 June 2008
Purpose: Review our current understanding
of ship emissions transboundary impacts
ContainershipTanker
Bulk CarrierGeneral CargoRefrigerated CargoRo-Ro
Goal: Explore ship emissions impacts
within goods movement context
OverviewFreight Transport
Passenger
Hypothesis: Ship emissions represent one mode
of the fast-growing global freight sector; contribute to large regional and global transboundary impacts.
Impacts overview
Air Quality and Health
Radiative Forcing
Discussion
(c) 2008, Corbett and Winebrake
Synthesis: Shipping offers mode-rebalancing
advantages for CO2; enabled by reduction of pollution health risks.
Eyring et al., ATTICA Shipping Assessment, Atm. Environ, subm., 2008
Questions that come to mind
What does it mean to observe less “net ozone destruction” in the oceans between 1985 and 2002?destruction in the oceans between 1985 and 2002?
Could it mean that there was a net increase in local source?
What is background? What is clean marine?If the trends in shipping were included, would multi-factor growth in trade and conversion to larger HTHP marine diesels explain some of the trends?explain some of the trends?
Can we characterize transboundary pollution without understanding emissions flux from ocean-based of
transportation of international “transboundary” cargoes?
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Shipping Impacts Overview
S H I P P I N G A C T I V I T Y I M P A C T SA I R Q U A L I T Y A N D C L I M A T E - F O R C I N G
C O A S T A L E C O S Y S T E M SH U M A N H E A L T H
Vessel-basedOil spills Ocean dumping Sewage discharges Oily wastewater Vessel collisions Ship-strikes with marine life
Engine air emissions Invasive species introductions (ballast water/hull fouling) Hull coating toxics releases Underwater noise
Port-based
Dredging Stormwater runoff Port expansion Ship construction, breaking
Vessel wake erosionCargo-handling air emissions
Security, safety, human factor dimensions fit similar contextsCould expand this framework to land-side freight systems
(c) 2008, Corbett and Winebrake
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ATTICA Shipping Assessment (Eyring et al., Atm. Environ., 2008)
10,000ea
r
Fuel and CO21.000
10.000
Year
100
1,000
Tg
per
Ye
0.001
0.010
0.100
Tg
per
Traditional Air Pollutants, Black Carbon and HFCs
* Registered fleet includes passenger vessels, fishing vessels plus cargo ships, but not military vessels.** Registered fleet engine HC does not include cargo evaporative HC.*** Total NMHC includes tanker loading (see Table3 of Eyring et al 2005a).
Spatial Proxies of Global Ship Traffic in 2000/2001
IMPACT STUDIES:Lawrence & Crutzen, 1999Eyring et al., 2007Lauer et al., 2007C b tt t l 2007Corbett et al., 2007
Endresen et al., 2003Lauer et al., 2007
Capaldo et al., 1999Kasibhatla et al., 2000 Davis et al., 2001Dalsoren et al., 2007
Eyring et al., ATTICA Shipping Assessment, Atm. Environ, subm., 2008
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Arctic Circle Arctic Circle
ICOADS AMVER
A choice of global proxy invent
Equator
Tropic of Capricorn
Antarctic Circle
Equator
Tropic of Capricorn
Antarctic Circle
Arctic Circle
Average ICOADS and AMVER
Equator
Tropic of Capricorn
Antarctic Circle
Wang, C., J.J. Corbett, and J. Firestone, Improving Spatial Representation of Global Ship Emissions Inventories, Environmental Science & Technology, 42(1), p. 193-199, 2008.
STEEM STEEM advanced spatial modeling of shipping to
id th t l t provide the most complete North American emission inventories.
This inventory is being used to evaluate impacts to air quality and human health.
Ship Traffic Energy and Environmental Model (STEEM)
Mortality from Ship Emissions: A Global Assessment
James J. Corbett, James J. Winebrake, Erin H. Green, Prasad Kasibhatla, Veronika Eyring, and Axel Lauer
November 2007
OVERVIEW OF STUDY
PM2.5 Concentrations are inventory and model dependent
AMVER and ECHAM 5: BC, POM, SO4 ICOADS and ECHAM 5: BC, POM, SO4
ICOADS and ECHAM 5: Total PM2.5ICOADS and GEOS-Chem: BC, POM, SO4
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Increased risk is broadly distributedShip emissions increase mortality risk for significant populations across the globe
Most coastal regions and many inland regions face a mortality risk greater than 10 in a million (1:100,000)
Key regions face greater mortality risk from ship emissions
Current work looking at benefits of reduction
Corbett, J.J., and J.J. Winebrake, et al, Mitigating Health Impacts of Ship Pollution through Low Sulfur Fuel Options: Initial Comparison of Scenarios, Submitted by Friends of the Earth International (FOEI) to IMO MEPC Session 57, 2008.
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Air Quality SummaryReducing ship emissions could have global health b fit b d E
Ships contribute to health impacts along major trade lanesbenefits beyond Europe and North America.
Growth in uncontrolled emissions increases risk.
Big Question: How do we choose policy standards?
Do something good:Phased control strategyPhased control strategy
Hold the line: Reductions offset growth
Mitigate impacts: Reduce to some prior year
Brown shipping lanes where particulate (PM) emissions occur; blue regions where premature mortality occurs due to ship PM
Change in Tropospheric Ozone Columns due to Shipping2000-2000without ships in DU
Change in ozone burden in Tg
2030-2030Schiffe,2000 in DU
Global mean increase of tropospheric ozone burden between 2000 and 2030 due to ship emissions (IPCC A2 Scenario + 'Constant Growth Scenario' with 2.2% Annual Increase Rate' for ships) is 3%
3.1 Tg(N) 6.0 Tg(N)
Eyring et al., ACP, 2007
2030-2030without ships in DU
Shipping Effects on Climate
Warming effects• CO2
• O from NO
Cooling effects• Sulphate aerosol• CH reduction from NOO3 from NOx
• BC (soot)CH4 reduction from NOx
• Changes of microphysical and optical properties of clouds from aerosols and their precursors
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-100
-50
0
50
Ship RF
A B C -0.4 mW/m2A B C
Radiative forcing due to shipping in 2000
-550
-500
-450
-400
-350
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
RF
[mW
/m2 ]
Endresen et al., 2003
Eyring et al., 2007
Capaldo et al., 1999
this study (inventory A/B/C)
Schreier et al., 2007
-600
-550
CO2 O3 CH4 Direct Indirect Ship Tracks
from NOx
Level of scientific understanding
Good Fair Fair Fair Poor Poor
Schreier et al., 2007
Lauer et al., ACP, 2007
Radiative Forcing from ShipsRF by nature is usually defined as a global meanShipping forcings operate on different spatial scales
CO globalMean % low cloud amount
CO2 – globalCH4 - globalO3 – regional to hemisphericBlack carbon – local to regionalSulphate – local to regionalCloudiness – local to regional
R i l l b l/h i h i
(1983 – 2004), ISCCP satellite data (Lauer et al., 2007)
Regional vs global/hemispheric forcings
CO2 exerts a relatively homogeneous forcing across the hemispheresSO4 exerts a strong regional (negative)forcingA global mean forcing (e.g. CO2) does not cancel regional forcings in terms of climate effect
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