Seminar Forex
Present by : Tok Boom Marking(Ahmad Firdaus b. Ab hadi)Seminar Forex
Fundamental and Technical AnalysisWhat is Forex?
FOREX theforeign exchange marketorcurrency marketorForexis the market where one currency is traded for another. It is one of the largest markets in the world.What is Trader?Trader- is a person that buy and sell financial instruments, expecting for profits.
Basic ForexBuy Low, Sell High. Not Lowest and Highest.Buy low, sell high. Seems like a pretty straightforward strategy to successful investing, but how many people know howor even attemptto do it? Greed and fear have many individual investors doing exactly the oppositebuying (or holding) high, and selling (or not holding) low. Source wall street journal.This, essentially, is what rebalancing a portfolio is all about: a prudent strategy for managing an investors overall risk.Eleanor Blayney Trader Bank
Naked Chart?Naked Chart mean the trader used candle as a indicator or we call trading without other indicator.
Sun Tzu-The Art of TradingTrader adalah seorang jeneral, seorang pemilik dana trading. Sebagai seorang jeneral, trader bertanggung jawab menentukan strategi trading dimana untuk memahami market forex sekarang ini (trend lines), kekuatan market forex sekarang ini (bull, bear atau sideways) dan kawasan medan perang tempat bertempur (sesi market Tokyo, London atau New York).Untuk mendukung strategi trading yang digunakan, seorang trader harus terlebih dahulu mempersiapkan segala strategi sebelum menyerang musuh (pair forex, Gold atau Oil), waktu dan tempat medan perang berdasarkan segala informasi (news kalender ekonomi atau isu-isu market yang beredar) dan interpretasi dari informasi tersebut. Persiapan perang ini termasuk di dalamnya mengukur kekuatan gerakan musuh, volatilitas dan arah dari gerakan musuh (short term atau long term trend).Seorang trader perlu membuat suatu strategi trading (buy atau sell, long term atau short term trading) dan margin trading dari dana yang digunakan (money management). Setelah semua data dan prediksi yang telah dibuat, trader menunggu pergerakan chart suatu pair untuk menentukan titik open posisi yang tepat, misalnya buy / sell ketika terjadi koreksi.Ketika open posisi telah dibuat, trader mengamati perkembangan open posisi trading yang telah dibuat. Trader harus selalu siap untuk merubah arah open posisi trading atau melakukan cut loss berdasarkan perkembangan dan pergerakan chart trading yang terjadi.Seorang trader adalah pejuang kecil. Trader tidak memiliki jumlah dana yang besar untuk melawan kekuatan market forex ataupun melawan institusi besar seperti Bank Central. Apa yang trader boleh lakukan adalah membaca gelagat yang diberikan oleh market forex itu sendiri, mengintepretasikannya dengan cepat dan mengimplementasikannya ke dalam posisi trading yang sedang berjalan berdasarkan disiplin money management dan strategi trading yang dipakai.
Type of TraderSWOTSwing TraderIntraday TraderScalping TraderStrengths-Less opened position-Less stressful-Less SL hit (news)-Big profits-Many opened position- Medium profit-More opened position-Fast profitOpportunities-Technical Analysis rarely invalidated-Less interest for institutional TraderMedium risk = medium profit.-News trading-high risk-high profitTechnical tradingIndicator Ref.
Weaknesses-Less opened position-Slow profit-Opened position Management -Emotional consuming (stressful)-Technical Analysis often invalidated
Time consumingSmall profits/trade (pips)
ThreatsSwap pointsHigh impact news-Contradictory News-SL hunting -LeverageNo SLLeverageNewsTimeframe UseTF Weekly, Monthly andDailyTF Daily, H1 and H4TF H1, M30, M15 and M1Percentage Win (%) 15% to 20%5%3%Other trader, Position Trader percentage win 80%Technical Analysis
Technical analysis is the framework in which traders study price movement.The theory is that a person can look at historical price movements and determine the current trading conditions and potential price movement.The main evidence for using technical analysis is that, theoretically, all current market information is reflected in price. If price reflects all the information that is out there, then price action is all one would really need to make a trade.Now, have you ever heard the old adage, "History tends to repeat itself"?Well, that's basically what technical analysis is all about! If a price level held as a key support or resistance in the past, traders will keep an eye out for it and base their trades around that historical price level.Technical analysts look for similar patterns that have formed in the past, and will form trade ideas believing that price will act the same way that it did before.
Sources:http://www.babypips.com/school/technical-analysis.html#ixzz2fxzNNezCTechnical Analysis
Basic Technical Analysis Support and Resistance (SNR)Supply and Demand (SND)Price Action and Volume (PnV)Cs Pattern and Chart Pattern by Dan ZangerBig Round Numbers (BRN)Marking Price (MP)How to Entry through Marking Price? Candle bank (CB)Market SessionFactor of Time for Open daily, Tokyo Open, London Open and Us Open (TLUO Method)-VolatileTokyo breakout Technic (Tok Boom Founder)2 Confirmation Candle Technic (2CC)Close Market Technic 10/11
Support and Resistance (SNR)Support and resistance represent key junctures where the forces of supply and demand meet. In the financial markets, prices are driven by excessive supply (down) and demand (up). Supply is synonymous with bearish, bears and selling. Demand is synonymous with bullish, bulls and buying. These terms are used interchangeably throughout this and other articles. As demand increases, prices advance and as supply increases, prices decline. When supply and demand are equal, prices move sideways as bulls and bears slug it out for control.
Support (SNR)Support is the price level at which demand is thought to be strong enough to prevent the price from declining further.The logic dictates that as the price declines towards support and gets cheaper, buyers become more inclined to buy and sellers become less inclined to sell. By the time the price reaches the support level, it is believed that demand will overcome supply and prevent the price from falling below support.
Resistance (SNR)Resistance is the price level at which selling is thought to be strong enough to prevent the price from rising further.The logic dictates that as the price advances towards resistance, sellers become more inclined to sell and buyers become less inclined to buy. By the time the price reaches the resistance level, it is believed that supply will overcome demand and prevent the price from rising above resistance..
Resistance Becomes Support (RBS)SupportResistance
Resistance becomes SupportPort (SNR)
Downtrend (SNR)
Uptrend (SNR)
Long Downtrend
Long Uptrend
Downtrend and Uptrend
Range MarketRange MarketBig RepairExample 120pipsRange market would be consider based on volume and trending.
Support Become Resistance Entry SNR Risky ??BreakRejectSNR like a Hammer & Nail
Supply and Demands (SND)In the financial markets, prices are driven by excessive supply (down) and demand (up). Supply is synonymous with bearish, bears and selling. Demand is synonymous with bullish, bulls and buying. These terms are used interchangeably throughout this and other articles. As demand increases, prices advance and as supply increases, prices decline. When supply and demand (SND) are equal, prices move sideways as bulls and bears slug it out for control.
Sideway SNR Create SND
Entry SND
Retest Zone SNDPrice Action And Volume(Trending)PNVV60V90V60V30V3015 pips
V120Use Price Action in TrendingUse PNV When confuse on SNR
TrendVolume(pips)
Volume(pips)Tips Volume:-
Volume(pips)
Cs Pattern and Chart Pattern by Dan Zanger
Transition Pattern between downtrend and UptrendChart Pattern by Dan Zanger
Chart Pattern by Dan Zanger
Marking PriceAs a naked chart trader, Price is all about with price u should known SNR and when to OP Not many trader us price as subject of entryWhat price u should markingWhy?
How to Marking?MondayConvert to Line ChartMarking Monday to entry TuesdayL1Marking Low and high Body Candle, it mean L1 and L2And than, create more line based on wave or close price.Assuming the line as support and resistance.L2L3L4L5
How to Marking?MondayTuesday4. If breakout, refer previous day based on wave.breakoutL1L2How to Entry through Marking Price?
How to Entry through Marking Price?
How to Entry through Marking Price?
How to Entry through Marking Price?
How to Entry through Marking Price?
How to Entry through Marking Price?
How to Entry through Marking Price?
Big round Numbers (BRN)
1.30000Big round Numbers (BRN)
EurUsdMarket Session(GMT +7:00) Bangkok Hanoi, Jakarta5.00am8.00am3.00pm9.00pm11.00pm5.00amSydney OpenTokyo OpenLondon OpenUs OpenLondon CloseUs CloseSydney Session (5.00am 2.00pm) Tokyo Session (8.00am 5.00pm)Volatile Session 3.00pm-5.00pm London Session (3.00pm 12.00am)Us Session (9.00pm 5.00am)Volatile Session (9.00pm 11.00pm)Market Session
http://mc24.ch/index.htmlMarket Session
http://www.forexfactory.com/market.phpFactor of Time for Open daily, Tokyo Open, London Open and Us Open (TLUO Method)-Volatile
6.00amOpen daily 8.00amTokyo OpenVolatile ZoneIt Create resistance AreaSideway More than 8 hoursHigh Volatile on London Session
Tokyo breakout Technic (Tok Boom Founder)
Breakout Line125pipsBreakout Line 25pipsEntry HereBreakout Line2How to Entry:-Need to breakout L1 or L2 before 3pm.Need to breakout Line 25pips again.Entry above or below based which Line market breakout.4. If market breakout before 10am, need to close OP before 3pm.5. If market breakout after 10am. need to close by 6pm either profit or lose.6. Recommendation SL 30pips.
Other. need to see BBC news for high Impact news such earthquakes, tsunami or wars speculate.
Pair EU, GU, GC and UC but not JPY pairing.
2 Confirmation Candle Technic (2CC)
2 hour Reject Tips:- Why need 2 candleConfirmationWe need to know the volatile is low.2. We know that price is clearly reject or break.3. Trader always entry SNR by one candlegamble 50-50.
Entry Here.Close Market Technic 10/11
http://www.forexmentor.com/londonclose-old/10000pips/Close Market Technic 10/11
Close Market Technic 10/11
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glonD2Zl4ag (Noble Entry)Noble Entry
Noble Entry
Fundamental AnalysisFundamental analysis is a way of looking at the market by analyzing economic, social, and political forces that affects the supply and demand of an asset. If you think about it, this makes a whole lot of sense! Just like in your Economics 101 class, it is supply and demand that determines price.Using supply and demand as an indicator of where price could be headed is easy. The hard part is analyzing all the factors that affect supply and demand.In other words, you have to look at different factors to determine whose economy is rockin' like a Taylor Swift song, and whose economy sucks. You have to understand the reasons of why and how certain events like an increase in unemployment affect a country's economy, and ultimately, the level of demand for its currency.The idea behind this type of analysis is that if a country's current or future economic outlook is good, their currency should strengthen. The better shape a country's economy is, the more foreign businesses and investors will invest in that country. This results in the need to purchase that country's currency to obtain those assets.
Sources:http://www.babypips.com/school/fundamental-analysis.html#ixzz2fy0R3HOeFundamental AnalysisBasic Fundamental AnalysisType of Market participantsSize of MarketMajor factor of FundamentalTop 10 Bank currency tradersMost Traded Currencies by Value8 Major Currency9 Major pair AnalysisUS Dollar IndexUSDX ComponentsPerson Behind Big BankWhat Major issue would create up and down for 8 currency?How to study stock market on Bloomberg?Forexfactory AnalysisBBC is the best News UpdatedCME group AnalysisCOT (Commitment of Traders)Effect news for other currency?List of websiteSummary of Fundamental Analysis
Type of Market participantsType of Market participants
Commercial companiesCentral banksForeign exchange fixingHedge funds as speculatorsInvestment management firmsRetail foreign exchange tradersNon-bank foreign exchange companiesMoney transfer/remittance companies and bureau de change
Size of MarketAs such, it has been referred to as the market closest to the ideal ofperfect competition, notwithstandingcurrency interventionbycentral banks. According to theBank for International Settlements,as of April 2010, average dailyturnover in global foreign exchange markets is estimated at $3.98 trillion, a growth of approximately 20% over the $3.21 trillion daily volume as of April 2007. Some firms specializing on foreign exchange market had put the average daily turnover in excess of US$4 trillion.
The $3.98 trillion break-down is as follows:$1.490 trillion inspottransactions$475 billion inoutright forwards$1.765 trillion inforeign exchange swaps$43 billioncurrency swaps$207 billion inoptionsand other products
Major Factor of Fundamental
Basic Fundamental factor would effect the currency Trend.
Residential MortgageInterest RateJobless claimsDebt ceilingUnemploymentNew Home SalesEconomic crisisManufacturing activityPurchasing PowerGrowth ratePolitical IssueTrade BalanceBond marketGDP Data(Gross Domestic product)Wars SentimentTsunami or Earthquake
Top 10 Bank currency traders
Most Traded Currencies by Value
8 Major CurrencyList for 8 major currencyEuroUs DollarGreat British PoundSwiss FrancAustralian DollarCanadian DollarNew Zealand DollarJapanese Yen
Why yuan is not in 8 major currency?9 Major pair Analysis
List of pair:-
EuroUsdUsdJpyGbpUsdUsdChfAudUsdUsdCadNzdUsdOilGoldBased on 9 pair, we should known trend of Usd currency either strong or weak.
USDX Components
US Dollar Index
Person Behind Big Bank
The Federal Bank (FOMC)European Central Bank(ECB)Bank Of Japan(BOJ)Haruhiko Kuroda
Mario Draghi
Ben Bernanke
5 Factor FX ImplicationsWhat Major issue would create up and down for 8 currency?US Dollar (USD)Residential MortgageInterest RateUnemployment RatePolitical issue in Middle EastGold Trending
What Major issue would create up and down for 8 currency?Euro (EUR)Dollar Us strongManufacturingUnemployment RateInterest RateExports DataEU MemberEconomic Crisis
What Major issue would create up and down for 8 currency? Great Britain Pound (GBP)Manufacturing ProductionMPC RateServices PMIConstruction PMIBusiness FriendlyInteresting on Index Data
What Major issue would create up and down for 8 currency? Japanese Yen (JPY)No 1 Product ExporterInflationNo 1 importer oilNikkei IndexUs currency
What Major issue would create up and down for 8 currency? Swiss Franc (CHF)Stable CurrencyFrance, Italy and GermanyEU MemberInteresting on Index Data
What Major issue would create up and down for 8 currency? Australian Dollar (AUD)Sensitive on gold priceGold production (No 2 )
What Major issue would create up and down for 8 currency? Canadian Dollar (CAD)Sensitive on oil priceOil production (No 9)
What Major issue would create up and down for 8 currency? New Zealand Dollar (NZD)Follow Australian CurrencyGold production
How to study stock market on Bloomberg?
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/How to study stock market on Bloomberg?
Forexfactory Analysis
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php?week=sep15.2013Forexfactory Analysis
Forexfactory Analysis
Risk News Category
High Risk News CategoryType Of ImpactTime and DateFOMC Meeting MinutesHigh Impact2.00am (Middle of the Month)ECB Press ConferenceHigh Impact8.30pm (First Week Every Month)BOJ Press ConferenceHigh Impact10.00am (First Week Every Month)ADP Non-Farm Employment Change(ADP)Medium Impact8.30pm ( One days Before NFP)Unemployment Claims (UC)Medium Impact
8.30pm ( One days Before NFP)Non-Farm Employment Change (NFP)Medium Impact8.30pm (First Week Every Month)-FridayUnemployment Rate(UR)Medium Impact
8.30pm ( One days Before NFP)BBC is the best News Updated
CME group Analysis
http://www.cmegroup.com/COT ( Commitment of Traders)
http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/commitmentsoftraders/index.htmCOT ( Commitment of Traders)Even if you are a day trader of longer time investment, as swing trader, you need to know how COT reports are. Therefore you should check these reports, before you enter short or long trade. If COT reports "show" many short traders are in the market, you should reconsider your entry, if you wanna go long. Even if you, based on your technical analysis want otherwise. These reports tell us if buyers are in control of the market, base on there positions, or sellers. You dont wanna bet against the market. You should be "friend with the trend":How to ready COT, by following the next steps:1. Go to "Market Reports" on the menu.2. Select "This month in Futures Markets"3. Scroll down until "Financials"4. On the right side you have the text (reports) and on the left side a chart and the numbers/contracts (in thousands).COT ( Commitment of Traders)
Latest Updated EU COT ( Commitment of Traders)
Latest Updated Gold Effect news for other currency?
Effect news for other currency?
Effect news for other currency?
Summary of Fundamental Analysis
3 Step how to know the trend.Stock marketTokyo Open(Nikkei Index)London Open(STOXX Index)Us Open (DJIA Index)Sources BloombergBig News suchFOMC Speech or NFPSource Forexfactory
Big News such Earthquake, Tsunami or Wars Sentiment Source BBCPriority 1If Earthquake, follow the sentiment.Priority 2, If FOMC, follow the news.Priority 3, if not Earthquake or news FF, follow stock market.Priority 4. Combine technical analysis and fundamental analysis.List of website
List of Websitehttp://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/commitmentsoftraders/index.htmhttp://www.forexfactory.com/index.phphttp://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/Buzz/FX_Positioning.htmlhttp://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/http://www.dailyfx.com/calendarhttp://www.babypips.com/http://mc24.ch/index.htmlhttp://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/http://www.ensignsoftware.com/downloads.phphttp://www.bloomberg.com/http://www.cmegroup.com/market-data/volume-open-interest/exchange-volume.htmlhttp://www.cnbc.com/id/100746255?region=worldhttp://www.timeanddate.com/time/dst/2013.htmlhttp://www.bbc.com/http://www.ukforex.co.uk/exchange-ratehttp://www.futurecurrencyforecast.com/http://www.eia.gov/http://www.reuters.com/http://www.forexlive.com/http://asia.wsj.com/home-pagehttp://www.marketwatch.com/http://www.chartpattern.com/understanding_chart_patterns.html
Lot size Ideal Cara-cara pengiraan Money management jika trading lebih dari 1 lot
Contoh:Risk 2% per tradeSekiranya equity atau modal usd1000 dan risk 2%,1000usd x 2% = usd20 risk per lotutk lot 1st ,1000usd X 2%=20usd risk,jika lot 1st,terkena stoploss,balance =980usd.Untuk lot ke 2nd,980usd x 2%=19.60 usd risk.Jika lot ke 2nd,terkena stoploss,balance =960.40usd.Untuk lot ke 3rd,960.40usd x 2%=19.20 usd risk.Jika lot ke 3rd,terkena stoploss,balance =941.20usd.
Begitulah cara pengiraan Money management untuk lot yang seterusnya berdasarkan stoploss level,iaitu 2% risk menggunakan kaedah baki terakhir selepas harga terkena stoploss.Lot size Ideal
Equity 100usd, risk 3 %..recommendation lot sizeLot size Ideal
Equity 1000usd, risk 3 %..recommendation lot sizeLot size Ideal
Equity 10000usd, risk 3 %..recommendation lot sizeLot size Ideal
% Margin and LeverageHow to calculate Margin % based on Leverage Assume the equity 100usdThe Leverage 500% Margin is Equity X LeverageTotal % Margin 50,000, such u have 50,000usdAssume Mini Account, 0.01 is 10sen usd.If u entry lot 0.01, you % margin is 50,000If u entry lot 0.1, you % margin is 5,000If u entry lot 1.0, you % margin is 500% margin mean is percent to Margin Call(MC)% Margin to MC based on LeverageLot SizeLeverageEquity% Margin to MC0.015001000500,0000.1500100050,0001.050010005,00010.05001000500Lot SizeLeverageEquity% Margin to MC0.01100010001,000,0000.110001000100,0001.01000100010,00010.0100010001,000Comparison based on LeverageLot SizeLeverageEquity% Margin to MC0.01300010003,000,0000.130001000300,0001.03000100030,00010.0300010003,000Edited By Tok Boom MarkingLeverage Vs BonusLot SizeLeverageEquity + 100 % BONUS% Margin to MC0.015001000 + 10001,000,0000.15001000 + 1000100,0001.05001000 + 100010,00010.05001000 + 10001,000BONUS 100 % or Leverage 1:3000 ? Which Better!!!Lot SizeLeverageEquity% Margin to MC0.01300010003,000,0000.130001000300,0001.03000100030,00010.0300010003,000Bonus 100%Leverage 1: 3000Summary, better leverage compare bonus.If u deposit 1000 USDHow to trade EurJpy?
% Margin Recommendation Based on EquityGood % Margin is 3300 an above.
Money managementKenapa perlunya MM?
a) Tidak ada satu pun di antara beribu2 indikator yang wujud, mampu memberi 100% keuntungan kepada traders.b) Tidak ada seorang pun di dunia ini yg tahu ke mana sebenarnya arah market akan bergerak .Maka dengan ini konsep MM ini amat perlu untuk mengelak situasi di luar jangkaan dan sebagai contoh, cuba anda perhatikan situasi yang sedemikian:-1. Too much volatile - terlalu banyak pergerakan naik/turun yang mendadak2. News manipulation - manipulasi berita3. Political Event - acara politik4. Internet connection - keadaan sambungan internet5. Server issue - masalah server6. Greed and Fear - sifat takut dan tamak7. Human error - kesilapan manusia8. Low capital - modal yg rendah9. Low economic knowledge - pengetahuan ekonomi yg rendah10. Low chart understanding - pengetahuan chart yg rendahStudent CategorySalam..dah ramai yang profit dgn cara saya...cuma ada dikalangan group saya sendiri masih gagal dan dibahagikan kepada beberape kategori:-
1. Kategori yang faham marking sahaja..tapi terkena di news besar..tak suka ambil tahu pasal FA....
2. Kategori suka entry di big news..banyak tahu pasal FA...tidak berminat terhadap TA...
3. Kategori suka bermain lot gajah..tidak menbuat perkiraan pada MM..padahal Fail MM telah diberi...contoh equity 300usd entry lot 0.05...profit 30usd...suka2 je nak buka lot 0.1 selepas itu...lot buka sekali ganda...equity meningkat baru 10%..pun akan menuju MC...
4. Terlalu greed and fear...bagus dalam entry..tapi bila equity dah cecah ke satu level yang tinggi...lot size makin kecil...entry yang semakin takut...
5. Depo sudah..tapi anda tak faham lagi...sbb tu equity tk berubah....tidak ada tindakan follow up nak jumpa saya.Kenapa Forex1. Lebih banyak masa bersama keluarga, rakan-rakan,jiran tetangga dan urusan keagamaan.2. Masyarakat negara Maju telah berubah corak kehidupan mereka daripada pekerja sepenuh masa ke perniagaan atas talian atau forex trading.3. Persediaan usia tua, di mana ramai yang tertipu dengan pelbagai skim cepat kaya, menbuka perniagaan baru, tapi belum pasti menjanjikan kejayaan. Kembali merisiko kan kehidupan dengan melabur kesemua wang pencen.4. Bagus untuk minda. Kerana ketika usia tuan, jikalau minda kuat berfikir..masalah lupa ingatan takkan berlaku.5. Tidak memerlukan segulung ijazah6. Tidak memerlukan modal yang besar. Serendah 10 dollar.7. Tidak memerlukan masa yang lama untuk belajar.
Business Perspective
Nak buka kedai makan rm100k ...Nak buka fracise rm500k ...Nak buka kedai runcit 80k ...Nak buka kedai tudung 40k ...Blaka2 main ribu2 ... nak balik modal adala 3, 4 tahun keatas ... kalau ada
Nak buka acc FOREX modal 100usd ... ada ilmu boleh pofit 200-300% sebulan ...sambil golek2 layan anak bini kat rumah ....
Mana yg terbaik punya bisnis ... hmmmmmmmmmmmm
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Q&A
