Selecting a Candidate: The Importance of National Issues ... · importance of several national issues in selecting a candidate2 and whether they think the country is headed in the

Selecting a Candidate:The Importance of National

Issues for Iowa Caucus Attendees

Published October 2003

Selecting a Candidate: The Importance of National Issues

For Iowa Caucus Attendees

Report Prepared by William E. Wright, Ph.D., Christine Bechtel and Susan L. Silberman, Ph.D.,

Data Collected by Woelfel Research, Inc.

Copyright © 2003 AARP

Knowledge Management 601 E Street NW

Washington, DC 20049 http://research.aarp.org

Reprinting with Permission

AARP is a nonprofit, nonpartisan membership organization dedicated to making life better for people 50 and over. We provide information and resources; engage in legislative, regulatory and legal advocacy; assist members in serving their communities; and offer a wide range of unique benefits, special products, and services for our members. These include AARP The Magazine, published bimonthly; AARP Bulletin, our monthly newspaper; Segunda Juventud, our quarterly newspaper in Spanish; NRTA Live & Learn, our quarterly newsletter for National Retired Teachers Association members; and our Web site, www.aarp.org. We have staffed offices in all 50 states, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. AARP is a non-partisan organization. It does not support any candidates for public office.

Acknowledgements

AARP staff from Grassroots and Elections, Knowledge Management and the Iowa State Office contributed to the design and implementation of this study. Special thanks go to AARP staff including Nancy George, Grassroots and Elections; Bruce Koeppl, Iowa State Office; John McCalley, Iowa State Office; Ann Black, Iowa State Office; Jeff Love, Knowledge Management; Gretchen Straw, Knowledge Management; Erica Dinger, Knowledge Management; Anita Ritter, Knowledge Management; Darlene Matthews, Knowledge Management; and Cheryl Barnes, Knowledge Management. John Woelfel of Woelfel Research, Inc. insured a timely and high quality survey. Susan L. Silberman, AARP Knowledge Management, managed the project and co-wrote the report along with Gene Wright and Christine Bechtel. For more information, contact William E. (Gene) Wright at (202) 434-6278.

AARP 2004 Iowa Caucus Survey 1

Background

With the presidential primary season gearing up in Iowa, AARP polled 802 Iowa registered1 voters 50 and older who are likely to participate in the Iowa presidential caucus. The survey explored their opinions about the importance of several national issues in selecting a candidate2 and whether they think the country is headed in the right or wrong direction.

Conclusions

Iowa respondents think the country is off track and are focused on domestic issues as they approach the 2004 presidential caucus. Economic and health issues, including prescription drugs, are all very important to substantial majorities of Iowa voters. Pocketbook issues -- the economy, Social Security, and affordable health care -- will be very influential as caucus attendees consider and select a presidential candidate.

Key Findings

Survey findings indicate:

• These are politically active respondents: o More than 8 in 10 (82%) say they always vote in presidential

elections. o More than half (53%) of Iowa registered voters age 50 and older

say they are very or somewhat likely to participate in the caucus.3

• Nearly two-thirds (64%) of Iowa respondents say that things in this

country have seriously gotten off on the wrong track. Only a quarter say the country is headed in the right direction, and one in 10 did not know.

1Iowa respondents were asked if they were registered to vote as part of the survey screening process. Individuals self-identified as registered voters at their present addresses. 2 AARP is a non-partisan organization. It does not support any candidates for public office. 3 This number is derived by dividing the number of likely caucus participants (n=802) by the number of likely caucus participants (n=802) plus the number of unlikely caucus participants (n=720), for a total n of 1522. This equals 53%.


• The majority of Iowa respondents who believe the country has seriously gotten off on the wrong track are disproportionately more likely to be:

o Concerned with domestic issues (67%) over international

security and foreign policy issues (18%) o Consider all of the major domestic issues covered in the survey

to be very important in their selection of a candidate o Retired and with lower incomes o Democrats (52%) rather than Republicans (13%) o Middle of the road or liberal (62%) rather than conservative

(35%) • The majority of Iowa respondents who believe the country is generally

going in the right direction are disproportionately more likely to be: o As concerned with international security and foreign policy

issues (42%) as domestic issues (40%) o Employed full-time and with higher incomes o Republicans (63%) rather than Democrats (11%) o Conservatives (74%) rather than middle of the road (17%) or

liberal (6%) • Six in ten (59%) Iowa respondents say domestic issues are more

important to them personally than international security and foreign policy issues (25%). This holds true for both men and women and all educational and income levels.

• Considered very important in selecting a candidate are a range of

domestic issues: the economy and creating jobs (84%), making sure Social Security is there for current and future generations (80%), making health care more affordable (77%), improving education (65%), strengthening and preserving traditional Medicare (63%), ensuring health care coverage for all (67%), and adding prescription drug coverage to Medicare (58%).

• Pocket-book issues are the most important issues for these voters.

Strengthening the economy and creating jobs (34%), making sure Social Security is there for current and future generations (16%), making health care more affordable (12%), expanding Medicare to cover prescription drugs (9%), and making sure everyone has health care coverage (8%) are the five single most important issues respondents say they will consider when selecting a presidential candidate.


• Although strengthening the economy and creating jobs (34%) was

identified as the single most important issue in deciding which candidate to support, nearly half (46%) of Iowa respondents gave greatest importance to one of the three issues emphasized in AARP’s 2004 voter education project (Social Security, Medicare prescription drugs, and accessible and affordable health care).

• Economic circumstances play a significant role in selecting a

candidate, as evidenced by the fact that, more than any others, lower income and less educated voters said that all issues including the economy, Social Security and Medicare, but not education, are very important to them as they select a candidate.

• Apart from the economy, retirees are more likely than those who are

employed to say that Social Security and Medicare are the single most important issues in selecting a candidate. Among employed Iowans, the top issues are economy and health care.


Do you feel that things in this country are generally going in the right direction today, or do you feel that things have seriously

gotten off on the wrong track? (n=802)

Don't Know 9% Right

Direction26%

Wrong Track 64%


Domestic Issues Rated as Very Important In Selecting a Candidate

(n=802)

58%

63%

65%

67%

77%

80%

84%

0% 25% 50% 75% 100%

Adding RX to Medicare

Strengthening/preservingMedicare

Improving education

Healthcare Coverage ForAll

Making Healthcare MoreAffordable

Social Security forcurrent & future

generations

Strengthening theeconomy/creating jobs

Very Important


Single Most Important Issue in Selecting a Candidate in the Iowa Presidential Caucus

(n=802)

16%

11%

9%

6%

3%

33%

7%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Economy/Jobs

Social Security

Affordable Healthcare

RX in Medicare

Healthcare Coverage

Improve Education

Preserve Medicare


A Profile of Iowa Respondents Eight hundred and two Iowa registered voters age 50 and older participated in the survey. The majority of respondents are women (63%). More than six in ten (62%) of Iowa respondents are married; yet, a large number are widowed (20%). Most respondents hold high school diplomas or the equivalent (39%) or have some college or technical training beyond high school (24%). Forty-six percent are employed either full-or part-time. Another 45 percent of respondents are retired. Two-fifths of Iowa respondents (39%) have an annual household income of $30,000 or less. Respondents are fairly evenly split across the political spectrum. Thirty-eight percent think of themselves as a Democrat, 29 percent as an Independent, and 29 percent as a Republican. The majority of Iowa respondents describe their political and social outlook as conservative (47%), another three in ten (30%) say they are middle of the road, and one in five (20%) identify as liberal. Almost half of survey respondents (46%) are members of AARP.


Methodology

AARP commissioned Woelfel Research, Inc. a national survey research firm, to conduct an Iowa random digit dial (RDD) telephone survey of registered voters who are age 50 and older. Respondents were screened for age and for their likelihood of participating in the Iowa caucus. A total of 802 interviews were completed between September 17 and September 30, 2003. The survey has a sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for overall results. This means that in 95 out of 100 samples of this size, the results obtained in the sample would fall in a range of 3.5 percentage points of what would have been obtained if every likely caucus attendee age 50 or older had been surveyed. Responses to all survey questions are in the attached annotated questionnaire.


Annotated Questionnaire


AARP CAUCUS SURVEY Sample N = 802 Iowa 50+ Likely Caucus Attendees

(Sampling Error ± 3.5 percentage points)

MAIN INTRODUCTION: Hello, my name is (FULL NAME). I am calling from XXX, a public opinion research firm. We are conducting a very brief opinion survey and we would very much like to include the opinions of someone in your household.

A. Are you 50 years of age or older?

Yes No (THANK AND TERMINATE) Don’t know (THANK AND TERMINATE) Refused (THANK AND TERMINATE)

B. Are you registered to vote at your present address?

Yes No (THANK AND TERMINATE) Don’t know Refused (IF RESPONDENT IS NOT REGISTERED TO VOTE: “WE ARE INTERESTED IN SPEAKING WITH REGISTERED VOTERS. THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME.”

C. How likely are you to participate in the upcoming Iowa caucuses? Would you say…?

51 Very likely 49 Somewhat likely Not too likely, or (THANK AND TERMINATE) Not at all likely (THANK AND TERMINATE) Don’t Know (DO NOT READ) Refused (DO NOT READ)

D. In the last few national elections, how often did you vote? Did you vote in…? (READ LIST) ACCEPT ONE ONLY) 82 All of the last few national elections 10 Most of them, 6 Some of them, or 1 None of them 0 Don’t Know <1 Refused


MAIN QUESTIONNAIRE

1. Let’s begin by asking your opinion about how things are going in the country today.

Do you feel that things in this country are generally going in the right direction today, or do you feel that things have seriously gotten off on the wrong track?

26 Right direction 64 Wrong track 9 (DO NOT READ) Don’t Know 1 (DO NOT READ) Refused

2. What is more important to you personally, international security and foreign policy issues, or domestic issues?

25 International Issues 59 Domestic Issues

16 (DO NOT READ) Don’t Know 1 (DO NOT READ) Refused

3. Of the following issues, what single domestic issue facing the country is most important to you personally?

16 Social Security

8 Education 12 Medicare 16 Health Care 37 The economy/jobs 2 Other (SPECIFY) 3 All

<1 Abortion 1 Morality Issues <1 Homeland security

4 Don’t know/nothing (DO NOT READ) 1 Refused (DO NOT READ)


(THROUGHOUT Q’NAIRRE, IF IA RESPONDENT USES WORD “CAUCUS”)

4. As I read a list of issues being discussed today, please tell me how important each of the following issues is to how you will select a candidate in the upcoming Presidential Caucus. Is (READ ITEM. ROTATE ITEMS) very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not at all important to how you will select a candidate in the Presidential Caucus?

a. Making sure Social Security is there for you and for future generations 80 Very important 16 Somewhat important

2 Not too important 1 Not at all important 1 Don’t Know

<1 Refused

b. Improving education 65 Very important 27 Somewhat important

4 Not too important 2 Not at all important 1 Don’t Know

<1 Refused

c. Strengthening and preserving the traditional Medicare program

63 Very important 29 Somewhat important

5 Not too important 2 Not at all important 1 Don’t Know <1 Refused

d. Expanding Medicare to cover prescription drugs

58 Very important 28 Somewhat important

8 Not too important 4 Not at all important 2 Don’t Know <1 Refused


e. Making healthcare more affordable 77 Very important 18 Somewhat important

3 Not too important 2 Not at all important 1 Don’t Know 1 Refused

f. Making sure everyone has healthcare coverage 67 Very important 22 Somewhat important

6 Not too important 3 Not at all important 1 Don’t Know 1 Refused

g. Strengthening the economy and creating jobs 84 Very important 13 Somewhat important

1 Not too important <1 Not at all important 1 Don’t Know <1 Refused

(IF TWO OR MORE OF Q.4 ITEMS = “VERY IMPORTANT”, ASK Q.5. OTHERS SKIP TO Demographics.) 5. You said that (READ ALL ISSUES RATED AS VERY IMPORTANT IN Q.4) are

very important to how you will select a candidate in the Presidential Caucus. Of these issues, which one issue will be the MOST IMPORTANT to how you will select a candidate?

(ACCEPT ONE ANSWER ONLY) (n=742) 16 Making sure Social Security is there for you and for future generations 5 Improving education 3 Strengthening and preserving the traditional Medicare program 9 Expanding Medicare to cover prescription drugs 12 Making healthcare more affordable 8 Making sure everyone has healthcare coverage 34 Strengthening the economy and creating jobs 13 Don’t know/Unable to choose <1 Refused


Demographics Now, I just have some questions for classification purposes only. Your individual responses will remain strictly confidential.

Z-1. Are you: (READ LIST)

7 Single, that is, never married 2 Single, living with a partner 62 Married <1 Separated 20 Widowed, or 9 Divorced

<1 Refused Z-2. Currently, are you yourself employed full-time, part-time, or not at all? 34 Full-time (SKIP TO Q.Z-4) 13 Part-time (SKIP TO Q.Z-4) 54 Not employed 1 Refused (ASK IF NOT EMPLOYED IN Q.Z-2) (n=428) Z-3. Are you: (READ LIST) 45 Retired 4 A homemaker <1 A student, or 1 Temporarily unemployed 2 Disabled/handicapped 0 Other (SPECIFY)____________________ 1 Don't Know Z-4. What is the last grade of school you completed? (DO NOT READ LIST)

7 Less than high school graduate 39 High school graduate 23 Some college 22 Graduated college 8 Graduate school or more 2 Technical school/Other <1 Refused


Z-5. Is your total annual household income from all sources, and before taxes:

(READ LIST) 6 Less than $10,000 16 $10,000 but less than $20,000 25 $20,000 but less than $40,000 23 $40,000 but less than $75,000, or 12 $75,000 and over 5 Don't Know 13 Refused Z-6. Are you of Hispanic origin or background? 1 Yes 98 No 1 Don't Know/Refused Z-7. Would you consider yourself to be White, Black or of some other race? If "other" say: "I'm not referring to your nationality. I just want to know if you consider yourself white or black." 96 White 1 Black 0 Asian/Oriental/Chinese/Japanese 1 Native American/American Indian <1 Mixed (VOLUNTEERED) 2 Refused Z-8. Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as: If respondent gives answer such as: "conservative, liberal, vote for best man" Probe: Would that be Republican, Democrat, or independent? 29 A Republican 38 A Democrat, or 29 An independent <1 Libertarian 2 Don't Know 2 Refused


Z-9. Thinking politically and socially, how would you describe your own general

outlook: very conservative, moderately conservative, middle-of-the-road, moderately liberal, or very liberal?

15 Very conservative 33 Moderately conservative 30 Middle of the road 15 Moderately liberal 5 Very liberal 2 Don’t Know 1 Refused Z-10. What is your zip code? Sex of Respondent: (DO NOT ASK)

37 Male 63 Female

Z–11. Are you or your spouse a member of A-A-R-P, formerly known as the

American Association of Retired Persons? 46 Yes

53 No <1 Don’t know (DO NOT READ) 1 Refused (DO NOT READ)

Selecting a Candidate: The Importance of National Issues ... · importance of several national issues in selecting a candidate2 and whether they think the country is headed in the

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