Securities offered through Triad Advisors, member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Lee Johnson Capital Management, LLC (LJCM). LJCM is an.

Securities offered through Triad Advisors, member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Lee Johnson Capital Management, LLC (LJCM). LJCM is an independent Registered Investment Advisor and is not affiliated with Triad Advisors.

LOOKING AT 2012 A YEAR OF STABILITY OR STORM?

Lunch and Learn


FIRSTA QUICK LOOK BACK

2011 IN A “NUTSHELL” AND ... WHAT A “NUTSHELL” IT WAS!


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S&P 500 Daily Change (%): 2011-2012Daily Change (%)

SEISMOGRAPH?

NO – THE STOCK MARKET IN 2011

2011 IN A “NUTSHELL”

Volatility was the wordAs “Headlines” ruled the day


2011 IN A “NUTSHELL”

SOME OTHER“NOTABLE” MOMENTS

JAPANESE TSUNAMI TERRIBLE TORNADOS IN SOUTH (RECORD 226 IN ONE DAY) BUDGET STALEMATE KILLING OF OSAMA bin LADEN ARAB “SPRING” KHADAFI OVERTHROWN (Libya) MUBAREK OVERTHROWN (Egypt) EUROPE – FINANCIAL PROBLEMS ROYAL WEDDING U.S. DEPARTURE FROM IRAQ IRAN’S NUCLEAR THREAT


Prediction is very difficult… Especially about the future!

Niels Bohr – Danish Pysicist

SO WHERE ARE WE HEADED??


LET’S START WITH A QUICK REVIEW OF WHERE WE ARE?

Market predictions for 2011 (S&P 500)* – Low: 1300 > Average: 1379 > High: 1550 > Actual: 1257.60 Housing situation remains stressed Unemployment remains an issue – currently at 8.3%** We did not face another recession but growth is slow ≈ 1.8%*** Interest Rates ended the year at generational lows Europe’s debt/financial crisis caused high market volatility Our deficit/debt issues remain problematical Political gridlock is alive and well State and municipal governments face debt/budget issues U.S. corporate balance sheets at all-time highs** The politics of an election cycle have begun Many unknowns loom: Iran/North Korea/China etc Uncertainty is still the theme

Source: *Seeking Alpha ** St Louis Fed ***BEA


THINGS TO TALK ABOUT….. U.S. Economy Unemployment Inflation Debt Housing Oil Politics Europe and Beyond Gold The Dollar The Stock Market


THE U.S. ECONOMY:

Source: Federal Reserve 1/25/2012

What the Federal Reserve Predicts

The Fed range is 2.3% to 3.5% for 2012

REAL GDP


U.S. Economy:

OUR ASSESSMENT:

We feel the tendency will be to the MID-RANGE of the spectrum for six reasons:

1. UNEMPLOYMENT and SLOW WAGE GROWTH will pressure consumers.2. EUROPE will steadily slide into recession with some impact on our GDP. *Note: Europe only accounts for 3.3% of our GDP 3. More important will be the drag from FINANCIAL ISSUES affecting Europe 4. U.S. BUDGET ISSUES will cause more political friction and discontent.5. CHINA – the world’s largest growth engine faces slower growth.6. ENERGY PRICES will rise, affecting consumer expenditures.


Employment:

Source: Federal Reserve 1/25/2012


The Fed range is7.8% to 8.6% for 2012

UNEMPLOYMENT


OUR ASSESSMENT:

We believe the number will trend in the mid-range > 8.2%:

1. There are more people are LEAVING THE WORKFORCE2. The POPULATION DEMOGRAPHIC is changing as “boomers” retire3. There has been steady improvement in the WEEKLY JOB CLAIMS4. Businesses will want to HIRE and have plenty of cash5. ELECTION YEARS usually mean heroic efforts6. FISCAL and MONETARY stimulus will remain7. Most sectors of the economy are IMPROVING8. The economy is operating well below capacity so we can add jobs easily

Employment:


Inflation:

Source: Federal Reserve 1/25/2012Securities offered through Triad Advisors, member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Lee Johnson Capital Management, LLC (LJCM). LJCM is an independent Registered Investment

Advisor and is not affiliated with Triad Advisors.

FED range is 1.3% to 2.5% for 2012

INFLATION

Inflation

Some Observations:

1. Inflation is a when question….not if.2. It’s always a threat despite best efforts to avoid3. Problem is usually miscalculation in monetary policy4. Some inflation is OK – Key words are LOW and STABLE so we can adjust 5. Federal Reserve “target” range 1.7% to 2%...but have discussed an explicit target rate.4. Two types PCE - Personal Consumption Expenditures CPI – Consumer Price Index

ADDS TO THE CONFUSION

Source: Bloomberg, St Louis Fed, Richmond Fed *Through Nov 2011 FRB Dallas


Inflation – Two Measures: What do they mean?

Fed Uses PCE

Personal Consumption Expenditures Consumer Price Index


Based on Household SurveysBased on Business Surveys

Produced by BEA Produced by BLS

PCE CPI

INFLATION – GOING FORWARD

Going Forward – Our Opinion

1. Inflation should remain relatively tame for 20122. Two reasons for inflation

•Demand Pull – Consumers want/pay more •Supply Push – Cost of producing rises

The problem: →Consumers will resist

›Unemployment high › Housing Values cause angst ›Retirement accounts have suffered

→Producers “hold” costs because of cost conscious consumers

Securities offered through Triad Advisors, member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Lee Johnson Capital Management, LLC (LJCM). LJCM is an independent Registered Investment


DEBT

The Consumer: GETTING BETTER!

Household Debt Service Ratio

Ratio of Debt to Disposable Income

Source: Federal Reserve


DEBT

The Government: GETTING WORSE!

Source: Federal Reserve as of Q3/11Securities offered through Triad Advisors, member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Lee Johnson Capital Management, LLC (LJCM). LJCM is an independent Registered Investment


AND AS OF 1/20/2012…..U.S. DEBT IS Now OVER 100% GDP( $15.255 TRILLION-DEBT vs 15.176 TRILLION-GDP)

Source: usdebtclock.org

Debt: Total – Public & Private

Total Credit Market Debt = $53.824 trillion

or 354% of GDP

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Federal Reserve



HOUSING

MEDIAN SALES PRICE – NEW HOMES

MEDIAN SALES PRICE – ALL HOMES

- 14%

- 13.5%

HOUSING PRICES HAVE FALLEN CONSIDERABLYBUT SEEM TO BE STABILIZING

Source: Fed Reserve


HOUSING And … Default rates are still persistent!But getting better from recession lows


HOUSING

…THERE ARE SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT

According to the National Association of Realtors and the Census Bureau:

The national housing stock has fallen to the lowest since Feb 2007 Interest rates remain at generational lows The rate of decline in home prices and sales has declined New housing starts were up 2% at last reading Prices are back to more reasonable levels There is higher “foot traffic” – highest since May 2008 The NAR predicts a strong “Spring Buying Season”


OIL

→ There are three primary oil BENCHMARKS….yes THREE!

First – Brent Crude (North Sea)Second – West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – high qualityThird – Dubai Crude

The ones we hear about most often are Brent & WTI

There is always a price “spread” between them Normally Brent trades at a discount to WTI In 2009 – Brent went higher due to global demand Increased U.S. supplies have made WTI cheaper Gas prices are more closely aligned with Brent Brent reflects global demand WTI reflects U.S./Canadian demand Price you hear on the news is WTI Sources: Seeking Alpha/Wikipedia


SOME CHARTS TO TELL THE STORY

WHERE DO WE GET OUR OIL?Almost 50% from Western Hemisphere Largest single supplier → Canada 25%

OIL



THE 7 FACTORS IN OIL PRICING

Source: EIA

OIL

Organization ofEconomic Cooperation

& Development


U.S. CONSUMPTION #1 world consumer > 22% 4.6% of world population Over 19 million barrels/day ≈20% of the world’s GDP


Sources: CIA Fact Book for 2010/EIA

OIL



WHERE DO PRICES GO?Always a chance for high/low But a fairly steady forecast

OIL



HOW ABOUT GAS PRICES?Not cheap but steady $115/barrel ≈ $4.00 gas

OIL


OIL OIL FACTS

THERE ARE 42 GALLONS IN A BARREL OF OILAVERAGE TAX PER GALLON OF GASOLINE: 48.8₵ (TX 38.4₵)ONE BARREL OF OIL PRODUCES ABOUT 19 GAL OF GASBREAK-OUT OF TOTAL COST FOR A GALLON OF GAS

> 66% = Cost of Crude >10% = Refining Costs >12% = Distribution Costs >12% = Fed and State Taxes

AVERAGE COST TO PRODUCE A BARREL OF OIL: ≈ $34.00 >DRILLING - $12.00; FINDING - $22.00

Source: Energy Information Administration


POLITICSWE DON’T LIKE ‘EM…...BUT THEY’RE ALL WE’VE GOT!


POLITICS

SOME QUOTES FROM THE NEWS

Outside of the payroll tax cut bill, no major legislation is expected to make it through Congress this year.

However, each party promises a series of bills to advance what it thinks the public wants from Capitol Hill in response to the weak economy.

For both sides, these efforts will be more about political messaging than actually legislating because few, if any, are likely to become law.

Source: CNN News


THE PROBLEMS:

DEBT

POOR FISCAL RESTRAINT

SLOW ECONOMIC GROWTH

BANK SOLVENCY/LIQUIDITY

GOVT’S SLOW TO RESPOND

INTEREST RATES

Source: Christian Science Monitor, otherwise as noted.

EUROPE


EUROPE AND BEYOND

And……..NOT TO BE FORGOTTON:

KOREA – HARSH POLITICS AND NUCLEAR CAPABILITYIRAN – OIL AND POLITICAL DISRUPTIONS. SANCTIONSIRAQ – TURMOIL WITH U.S. GONEISREAL – HATED BY MANY IN THE REGIONEGYPT - POLITICAL DISRUPTIONLIBYA –OIL DISRUPTIONS & POLITICAL INSTABILITYRUSSIA – OIL AND POLITICAL DISRUPTIONSVENEZUELA – OIL DISRUPTIONS & UNSTABLE POLITICS


GOLD

SOME GOLD FACTS:

HOW MUCY GOLD IS THERE?

166,600 Tons (Source: World Gold council 2010)

ABOUT THE SIZE OF A SMALL OFFICE BUILDING


GOLD

SOME GOLD FACTS: WHERE IS ALL THAT GOLD?


GOLD

SOME GOLD FACTS:

MOST U.S. GOLD IS AT THE NEW YORK FED –NOT FORT KNOX

LARGEST NUGGET EVER FOUND – 2316 OZ(t) – CALLED “WELCOME STRANGER”

PURE GOLD IS 24 KARAT

60% OF ALL GOLD MINED BECOMES JEWELRY

IT IS RARER TO FIND A 1 OUNCE NUGGET THAN A 5 CARAT DIAMOND

GOLD IS EDIBLE????

Source: World Gold Council


GOLD

AND…THE PRICE IS “RIGHT” - SOMETIMES

Source: GoldMoney.com

GOOD ON THE WAY UP!!

THEN NOT SO GOOD

AS WITH ANY INVESTMENT IT’SIMPORTANT TO KNOW “WHEN”


GOLD

WHAT’S THE PRICE FORECAST IN 2012?

Current SurveysAverage Price/Reuters = $1,765* Average Price/London Bullion Mkt Assoc - $2,000**Several large banks (UBS, Morgan Stanley) = $2000* (average)Price will zig-zag versus fast upward trend*Forecast for 2013 = $1,835 (average)*

*Source: Reuters 1/26/2012**London Bullion Market Assoc 1/6/2012


GOLD

WHAT AFFECTS THE PRICE?

Key Factors Affecting Price:What happens in EuropeIndia/China DemandCentral Banks Buying PatternsInvestor OutlookWord Crisis LevelsQuantitative Easing Policy


THE DOLLAR

Literal Translation: “He approves of the undertakings”

THE GREAT SEAL OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Literal Translation: “New order of the ages”

Source: Wikipedia

1776 in Roman Numerals

Pyramid with 13 layers – referring to original states

The “Eye of Providence”


THE DOLLAR

SO WHAT ABOUT THE DOLLAR?Became World Reserve Currency in 1944 with the Bretton Woods Agreement*Over 60% of the world’s “allocated reserves” are in dollars**Next closest is the Euro at about 25%**

Source: *Yahoo Answers **Wikipedia

ALLOCATED WORLD MONETARY RESERVES


THE DOLLAR

SO MAYBE YOU’VE HEARD THAT THE DOLLAR WILL “COLLAPSE”

What’s that? •Value falls so fast everybody panics and sells What could cause that? •Underlying weakness – does exist as our debt increases dollar tends to decline •Is there a good alternative – not really: Euro under pressure/China not trustedWhat could trigger a dollar collapse? •Foreign debt holders start “dumping” (Read China and Japan)Will this happen? •Certainly possible but not probable •They need us as major trading partner – U.S. is the best market in the world •Abandoning the dollar would hurt them

Source: about.com Guide


THE DOLLAR

SO…..What’s Likely Near Term?

The dollar may well continue to declineU.S. debt will move higher – hurting the dollarIn reality a weak dollar benefits the U.S.The dollar remains the world’s safe harbor currencyAnd remember…..oil/gold denominated in dollarsThe demise is overestimated at this point.

Source: About.com U.S. Economy


WHAT ABOUT THE STOCK MARKET IN 2012?

STOCK MARKET


STOCK MARKET

PREDICTIONS ARE SOMETIMES NOT PREDICTIVE?

GROWTH IS FORECASTIN MOST SECTORS


STOCK MARKET

EARNINGS FORECASTS CAN BE WAY OFF – THEY LEAD THEN LAG

THE AVERAGE QUARTERLY FORECAST ERRORIS ABOUT 2.1% AND THE DEVIATION ± 18.9%

PRETTY LARGE!


STOCK MARKET

WE DECIDED TO USE VERY CONSERVATIVE DATA TO LOOK AT 2012 TO GET A RANGE BASED ON SEVERAL ASSUMPTIONS

CXO Advisory Group publishes this chart:

Value ApproachForward Looking

Earnings/Inflation Forward Data

Earnings/InflationLagging Data

Future EarningsLagged Inflation

THIS DATA WOULD SUGGEST THE S&P 500 (LOW TO HIGH) AT

1377.07 TO 1421.88IN THE NEXT SIX MONTHS

BUT REMEMBER: PREDICTIONS AREN’T ALWAYS PREDICTIVE!!

Source: CXO Advisory Group


WHERE TO FROM HERE??

SO THERE YOU HAVE IT – OPINIONS ON EVERYTHING

….AND WE KNOW THERE ARE SO MANY OUT THERE!

THE BEST THING WE CAN DO IS FOLLOW ABRAHAM LINCOLN’S ADVICE:

“THE BEST THING ABOUT THE FUTURE IS THAT IT COMES ONE DAY AT A TIME”


THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR COMING TODAY!

IF YOU WOULD BE SO KIND AS TO FILL OUT OUR SURVEY QUESTIONNAIRE IT WOULD BE VERY HELPFUL!


QUESTIONS AND COMMENTSAgain! - Thank You So Much for Coming!

Securities offered through Triad Advisors, member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Lee Johnson Capital Management, LLC (LJCM). LJCM is an.

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