SEB report: Swedish krona seen at 9 per euro end 2010

8/14/2019 SEB report: Swedish krona seen at 9 per euro end 2010

1/24

==

=

=You can also find our research materials at our website: www.mb.seb.se. This report is produced by Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) for institutional investors only.

Information and opinions contained within this document are given in good faith and are based on sources believed to be reliable, we do not represent that they are accurate or

complete. No liability is accepted for any direct or consequential loss resulting from reliance on this document. Changes may be made to opinions or information contained

herein without notice.

==

16 March 2010 =Scandie Views

Swedish assets outperform as EUR/SEK revisits 9.00_= =klh=~= pbh= ~= =~= ~= = = = ~===~= ~= ~= ~K= q= ~= ~= = = = = = ~= ~= = =~=~=======dI=~==~=====~K=_=~=~= === ~==~==~K=^========~==========~~==~==~=~====K=q=======~=~~=~===~======K=eI===== = = pbh= = = = = =klh== = ~= = ~= ~= K=t==~==pbh==~==~=~==~==K=q=klh===~==~===K=q=~=~==o~I==~=~=p==~======~=~==broLpbh=~=VKQR==~=K=l====broLpbhI=~=====~I======pbh=~~I==VKMM==~=K=klh=~===~==broLklh=~~=~=~===~=~K=f==========p======a~=~======~=~~====k~=~=pK=f~==~=~=~======fph==~~=~K==

Historical SEK positioning

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Apr-99

Nov

-99

Sep-00

Mar-01

Feb

-02

Nov

-02

Okt03

Sep

-04

Dec-05

Nov

-06

Dec-07

Mar-09

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Own company Market

Overweight in SEK

Underweight in SEK

==

Sell NOK/SEK and EUR/SEKa===pbh=I======~~K===eI==klh==~~=~= ~= ~= ~= ~= = = = =~= ~= I= =k= _~= = = ===~=~=K==Buy One-touch 9.00 EUR/SEK 6mths 13%l= ~=~== ~= ~=broLpbh=~= =~==~==VKMM=====K==Buy a double-no-touch 7.70-8.30 EUR/NOK 6mths

c~= ~= ~= = ~= broLklh=~~=~=~=~==~=~====K=t===~=akq=~=ORBK====Buy Swedish CBs vs. Danish non-callablesp=PJQ===E`_F==~=~=~=~=~=~=^pt=~=J==OMJOR=~==a~=J~~K=Sell EUR/ISKt=~~==broLfph====~=~=~= OTM= ~= = = ~= = =E___HL_~~PFK=

Market positioning in NOK

11%

71%

Own positioning Perceived market

positioning


2/24

=

=

=

Forecasts and contacts 2

SEK investor survey 3Swedish macro and fixed income 5

SEK outlook 8

Swedish equity market 11

NOK investor survey 12

Norwegian macro and fixed income 14

NOK outlook 17

Norwegian equity market 20

Denmark 21

Iceland 22

Technical outlook 23

Contents Scandie Views contacts

g~=g~=EbF+46 8 506 23019, [email protected]

`~=e~+46 8 506 23128, [email protected]

`~=^+46 8 506 23029, [email protected]

b~=_+46 8 506 23029, [email protected]

p=_+47 210 08534, [email protected]

g=e~+46 8 506 23167, [email protected]

l=e+46 8 763 8079, [email protected]

q=h~+47 2100 8572, [email protected]

b~=h~+46 8 506 23017, [email protected]

e=j~+46 8 506 23018, [email protected]

a~=j+46 8 506 23129, [email protected]

j~=l~+46 8 506 23262, [email protected]

h~=l+46 8 506 23104, [email protected]

^=p+46 8 506 23021, [email protected]

16-Mar Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 EUR/USD 1.374 1.35 1.33 1.30 -1.7% -3.2% -5.4%

EUR/SEK 9.742 9.50 9.20 9.00 -2.5% -5.6% -7.6%

EUR/NOK 8.02 7.90 7.85 7.80 -1.5% -2.1% -2.7%

EUR/CHF 1.451 1.45 1.47 1.48 -0.1% 1.3% 2.0%

USD/JPY 90.4 95 98 100 5.1% 8.4% 10.6%

GBP/USD 1.516 1.50 1.50 1.53 -1.1% -1.1% 0.9%

USD/SEK 7.091 7.04 6.92 6.92 -0.8% -2.5% -2.4%

USD/NOK 5.84 5.85 5.90 6.00 0.2% 1.1% 2.8%

NOK/SEK 1.215 1.203 1.172 1.154 -1.0% -3.5% -5.0%

GBP/SEK 10.75 10.56 10.38 10.59 -1.8% -3.5% -1.5%

GBP/NOK 8.85 8.78 8.85 9.18 -0.8% 0.0% 3.7%

SEB FX Forecasts

========

SEB policy rate forecastsRB NB FED ECB BOE

Current 0.25% 1.75% 0.0-0.25% 1.00% 0.50%

End -09 0.25% 1.75% 0.0-0.25% 1.00% 0.50%

Mar 24 Mar* 16 mar 4 mar 4 marApr 20 apr 28 apr 8 apr 8 apr

May 5 maj 6 maj 6 majJun 23 June* 23 jun 10 jun 10 junJul 1 jul 8 jul 8 jul

Aug 11 aug 10 aug 5 aug 5 augSep 2 sep 22 sep 21 sep 2 sep 9 sepOct 26 okt 26 okt 7 okt 7 okt

Nov 3 nov 4 nov 4 novDec 15 dec 15 dec 14 dec 2 dec 9 dec

End-10 1.50% 3.00% 0.50% 1.00% 0.75%

End-11 3.00% 4.25% 2.00% 2.25% 2.00%

Neutral policyrate 4.00% 5.00% 4.25% 3.80% 4.50%

Inflation target 2.0% 2.5% ~1.8% ~1.8% 2.0%

50bps hike 25bps hike 25bps cut 50bps cut >50bps cut

2


3/24

SEB Scandie Views Monday, 15 March 2010

FX Survey: Market record overweight in SEK

The market is record long SEK.

Respondents believe the rest of themarket is even more overweight inSEK.

Riksbank rate hikes and strongpublic finances are seen as the keypositive drivers for the SEK.

The market expects the SEK tooutperform other Scandinaviancurrencies and the EUR during therest of this year.

=l= = = = RM= = ~=~= = = p= ~= ~== ~= ~~= ~= == = = pbh= E~= NMJ~===~F=~===~K=^==~===~=== = = = ~= = = = ====pbhK==

Historical positioning

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Apr-99

Nov

-99

Sep

-00

Mar-01

Feb

-02

Nov

-02

Okt03

Sep-04

Dec

-05

Nov

-06

Dec-07

Mar-09

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Own company Market

Overweight in SEK

Underweight in SEK

==f= = = ~= ~=

~~= ~= I= ====~==RRB== ~~= = ~= = == ~= = = ~=== = =pbhK= q=~==~===pbh====~==K=

Participants' own positioning in SEK

55%

45%

0%

23%

73%

4%

Overweight Neutral Underweight

Financials Corporates==

=^=~======pbh=======~I==VRB==~~=~== ~= ~= ~= = = = K=eI= = ROB= = ~= ~==~=K==

Perceived market positioning in SEK

95%

5%0%

52%

32%

16%

Overweight Neutral Underweight

Financials Corporates=

=Conclusion on positioning: Given that the marketis record long in SEK there is definitely a position

risk for the currency. However, at the same time it isquite clear that the market is also aware of thissituation and has actually overestimated total longSEK positions held by the whole market.

=

3


4/24


SEK best friends: Riksbank and publicfinancesb= o~= = = =

p= == ~= ~= =~====~==== = ~K= f= ~= ~= = ~= ~=~==~=~=~=====pbh=~==~=~==~==~=~=pbh==== _~= ~== ~= = ~=NO= = ~= ~= = = = ==~===pbhK=====

=====

Most expect to retain risk appetite =o=~=~==~====~= = ~= = = ~K=t= I= = ~=~= ~= ~= = ~= == = ~= = = =I====~==~==~= = ~= = ~= ~== = ~= K= =K= o~= = = ~= == =~= ~= EUMBF= = =

=====K===More speculative SEK tradingt= ~= ~= = ~= =~=~===~K=f==~= E~= ~= ~= pbh=F=~=~= =~= ~=K=l====~==~===K==

Speculative trading in SEK now

compared to 6 months ago

8%13%

37%

32%

11%

considerably

lower or

ceased

somewhat

lower

unchanged somewhat

higher

considerably

higher

=Market expects stronger krona=`= = = ~= ~= =

= = = pbhI= ~~= ~== == = = K= =broK= eI= = = = = ~=~~=K==rpaK===

Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-10 Dec-10 Median 9.55 9.45 7.27 7.31

High 10.00 10.00 7.70 8.10

Low 9.00 8.50 6.33 5.81

Average during survey period EUR/SEK 9.71, USD/SEK 7.12

EUR/SEK USD/SEK

==t= ~= ~= ~~= = ~=

p~~~==~===~~=~== = ===~K=j====pbh====p~K=a== ~= ~= ~~=I==TPB==~~=== pbh= = = = RQB= =~=~==klhK===

Which Scandinavian currency will

outperform during the rest of 2010?

73%

18%

5% 5%

33%

54%

13%

0%

SEK NOK ISK DKK

Financials Corpotates=

=

=

Market ranking of SEK drivers

Rik

sbank

Fis

calp

ol/P

ublfin

Swegrowth

Sweexports

Risk

appetit

e

Reb

ala

ncingfl

ows

Baltic

s

Liq

uidity/V

olatilit

y

Positive

4


5/24


Sweden Closing the expectations gap

Superior fundamentals offer roomto manoeuvre.

Rate hike cycle initiated in July.=f= ~= ~= = ~= ~== ~= ~= = = = ~I=p===~==~=== ~= = = ~= == = = = =K=t==~=~==== ~= = = ~== ~I= = = =~= ~= ~= = `L^= = ~=p=~====~=~= = = = EJkF=K===q~= = = ~= == ~= ~= ~= = nQ=dam=EJNKRB=L=KK~KF===~== = ~= K= q= ~===~====~= ~= ~~= ~= ~= ~=

~K=t=~=~==dam== = OMNM= = = ~= ===OKSBI===br=~~K===Swedish industry best in testq=kfbo===~=== ~= = ~= ~= sJ~=K===

1009080706050403020100999897

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

-6

-8

120

111

101

92

83

74

64

55

Swe: GDP, % y/y

GDP

Tendency indicator

==

p= ~~= mjf= = =~= ~= = I= == = ~= = ~== K= ^= ~= ~~I=~~= = = ~= I== = = = I=~= ~= ~= = = == = ~= = = ~= = ~=~~=~K==Consumers willing and able to spendp= = = ~=I= = = = ~= ~= ===~=~~=~I=== = = ~K=_== ~= ~= = ~= ~== K= `= = ~= ===~= ~= = = ~=~===~=J~= ~= VKRBI= MKRBJ= = == ~K= p= ~= ~=~= = = =~= = = ~K= t= = ~= =

= = ~= =~~= ~= = ~== = ~= = = =K= c~= = = ~= = ~=~~===OMNMJNNK==q=~=~====~== = = = ~= ~=~= = = =~~= ~= ~~= = ~K=eI= ~====~=

~=~=======~= = ~= = = I= =~==~======~=VM=K====t======~=~= ~= = = ~= =o~= ~= ~= = c~K= q=p=c~~=p=^I=cfI= = = = = ~= = =

5


6/24


o~======~=~I======~~=~=~K=f=~=I=

==~=======~=K==High core inflation past its peakq=~=~=~====~= ~= = = == = = g~~I= = ~=~====~=~=~===J======`mf=~K=t===~=E`mfc= = = ~= F= = ~~=

= = = ~= = pbhI= =~= ~= ~= ~= = ==I=~=~=== ~= = = = = == ~I= ~= = ~=K= eI= = = = =K=p~====~==`mfc=E`mf====~F= ~= = o~= ~K= t=~= `mfc= = = = = ====o~=====~===~K==

11100908

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Swe: CPIF, % y/y

The Riksbank

SEB

==First hike in Julyq=o~=~=~=~=~========~=~K=q=c~= ~= ~= ~= pK=o~===~==== = = = f= ======~I=~==~=dam=I=~== = = = K=t===~==~=~======gI===~=~=~= ~= = = = = ~I=

~===~==NKRMB==vbNM=~=PKMMB==vbNNK====

j~= ~= ~= ~= ~== = ~= ~= = = = = =~= ~~= = OMNOK= l= =o~=~==~============~K=t==b`_===~=== = OMNNI= p= = ~= ~=~==~~==K=d~K===

Market's repo rate expectations based on

FRA and RIBA futures

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

12/09 05/10 11/10 05/11 11/11 04/12 10/12

%

Riksbank Feb path

FRA adj. for credit risk

SEB forecast

==Limited supply downside risk to yields=^= = J= ~= K= =b`_= ~= ~= = ~= p== = ~= K= t=~= ~= NMJ~= ~= K= d~= =OM= = vbNMK= t= ~= = ====~=~==K=p==~=~~====~=~=~=E==== FK= q= k~~= a= l== = ~= = =~= ~= = = K= f=

= = = ~= =j~==~=pbh=NMJNR==~=OB=~=NKRB= = dam= = OMNM= ~= OMNN=I======~==~==~K==SEB country risk scoret= ~= = ~= = = E~==~==~~====~=I= = `L^= ~~I= ~= == = ~= =

~F= ~= = = = =~= = = NM= ~= K=d~K= t= = = = ~== ~= ~= = ~= = =

6


7/24


= = ~= = I=~= = ~= J= = =~=~=~====

~I= p= ~= = ~==~=~=~K==

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5

Country risk score

Greece

Sweden

Belgium

Austria

Spain

Portugal

Finland

Denmark

France

Germany

IrelandUK

Netherlands

Italy

==

1.10.70.40.0-0.4-0.7-1.1

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

-50

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

-50

Risk score

Risk score and 10y bond spread vs Germany

FR

10y spread, bps

ESIT

PT

UK

IE

GR

SW

FI

GE

DK

NL

AT

BE

==

Buy 2014 covered bonds vs. swapsl==~===p=== ^pt= ~= ~= = =~= RJNM= = = ~== = = = ~= = = =c~K=_===~===~I=~=~=~=~== = ~= = = p== = K= ~L== = ~= = = = =~= ~= = = ~= = ~= =

~======~===~==~~=== = _~= ~K= ^===`=_=f=Ec=NUFI== ~= = ~=~=~~K=t== ==~==p=== K= ~I= ~= = = OMNQ=~=I====~W== ^=~=~===~=~=

==OMNM=~=~~==

= g~~K=p=`=_=fI= c=NU=

p= = = ~= ~= =~~~==bro=====

=~===pbh===~K=

_= = ~= = ==~===~===p= = K= p=c= f=fI=j~=NNK==

c= = = ===~K==

d= p= = ~= I==~= = = = p= == K= ~= ~= = =b~= = EKK= p~F= ~=K= p= c= f= fI=j~=QK=

=^= ~= J~= ~= = == p= = = =~= ~= P= ~~= a~= J~~K=p=~=ONK==Buy 5y CBs vs. 2y/10y swap wings`= =J= =R=K= OLNM====pbh=~=I=~==R==~=~===NJQ=====~=~====K=_~===~==~==o~===gI==~=

~= = = = R= K=OLNM==~=~=~~K===

Convexity on SEK swap curve tends to peak 1-4 monthsbefore the first hike

Note: Pick-up calculated as yield 5y 0.5*yield2y 0.5*yield10y

SEK swaps: Pick-up of bullet 5s vs. 2s/10s bfly10y

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Ja n-97 Jun-98 Oct-9 9 F eb-01 Jul-02 Nov-0 3 Ap r-05 A ug-0 6 Jan-08 May-0 9

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

repo rate, rhs

1999: Bullet pick-up peaked

95 days before first hike

2002: Bullet pick-up

peaked 118 days before

2006: Bullet pick-up peaked

18 days before first hike

==l~= ~= ~= = = ~=~I= = = = ~=~= = ~====~=R===E~=~= ~= R= ~F= K= ~= = = =OLNM= pbh= ~K= c= ~= = =~= = = = ~= ~I=

~=~==c=f=~K==

7


8/24


SEK: Stretched positioning vs. attractive valuation

The SEK is still undervalued andshould strengthen. Short termpositioning remains challenging.

We regard the normalisation ofexports and orders as vital inreturning the SEK to its long termexchange rate.

We forecast EUR/SEK at 9.00 andUSD/SEK at 6.90 by year end 2010.

=t=====~=RMB= = p= dam= = = =

=~=~= = ==pbh== ~= == = ~= =~= = pbhK= q= p= =~= = ~= ~= = pbh=VM==nN=OMMU===pbh=QM==nQ=OMMVI========~=p==~==pbhK===

SEKbn(quarterly

)

pI= = ~= = ~= ~= ~== K= =rpI=~= =~= = == rp= = = = ~= =~==pbh=UM==OMMS===pbh=PM==OMMVK==

eI=~==~=~=rp=== = = = = p== = = K=t=~= ~~== ~= = = = ~= ==~=~===~== = = K= a= ~=~~====~==~====~==p== ~=~= == ====~=~==~~==~==~~==p~=p==

=K==

q= ~= = = = == = = = = ==~K=q==~=== = ~= = = ~= ~======~K=q====~~==K=t==~=~==~==== ~= ~~= ~= = ~=~= = = ~== == = = = ~= ~=

= = K= q= ~~= == == = ~= ~=p= =~==~==~=~= = = pbh= ~I= = =~=~=== =~~== = ~= = K= d=~I= = = ~= = =~~= = = = = = ==~=K==

8


9/24

SEB Scandie Views Wednesday, 17 March 2010

Index2005=100

Netbalan

ce

==

Composition of Swedish exports:Contrary to popular belief, Swedish exports do not

just comprise cars and trucks. Indeed,telecommunications are far more important.=

Swedish goods exports 2009 % of totalexports

% change

since 2008Wood and paper products 13% -6%

Minerals 9% -38%

Chemicals, rubber products 15% 2%

Mineral fuels, electric current 7% -35%

Machinery, transport equipment 45% -24%

Manufactures of metals 3% -24%

Industrial machinery 16% -21%

Electronics, telecommunication 14% -10%

Road vehicles 8% -47%

Other 4% -2%

Other products 12% 0% ==

Service exports currently represent 50% of the totalSwedish trade surplus comprising:=

Swedish service exports % of total

Other business services 37%

Transports 18%Tourism 17%

IT/Communication 14%

Licencies/Royalties 7%

Finance/Insurance 4%

Other 3% ==

Swedish service exports have become anincreasingly important contributor to the totalSwedish trade surplus, currently representing over50% of it.=

ARS

EK

bn

=

Limited political risks for the SEKq=_~=~I==~=~=~=~==~==~=~===~I=

~= = ~= ~= = = =~~==i~~=K===

Investor survey: Almost 80% of respondentsregard a Baltic devaluation as either not likely orvery unlikely while 13% see an even chance of itoccurring.=

c= ~= _~= = = =~===~=~=====p=~=~==~===~= ~~K= i~= ~I= ~= ==E~=~=F=~=

= = ~= pbh= OT= = = ~=o~= = = c~= ~== = = ~= = ~= = =~=~===OMNNK=

2009 2010 2011

Estonia 4.4 5.3 3.8

Latvia 12.2 13.5 5.5

Lithuania 10.4 14.3 4.5

Baltics 27 33 14

Projected credit losses for Swedish banks

in the Baltics (SEK bn)

=

^====~==pbh=

= = p= = = pK=a==~=~==JJ== = ~= ~= = ~===~====~======K====

Investor survey: Two thirds of respondents eitherdo not think a change of government would affectthe krona or have no opinion on the matter. Onethird regard a change of government as negative forthe SEK. Significantly, not a single respondent seesa change of government this autumn as SEKpositive.

=

f=====~==~= E= ~= RJNM= ~= F=~= = ~= ~= = == I= ~= = ====~~K=

9


10/24


SEK volatility has room to fall furthers~= ~= = = ~= ~~=~K=pbh=~=~=~==

~===~==~=~=K= q= ~= = = =~= = = ~= ~=~K=^=~=~==~=~=~==~=~=~==~K=

Curr ent Median RatioAbove ratio

(%)

Below ratio

(%)

Bond (MOVE) 76.3 103.14 0.74 81 19

Equity (VIX) 17.9 20.34 0.88 62 38

EUR/SEK 7.1 5.80 1.23 29 71

G7 Currency 11.6 9.81 1.18 23 77

EM Currency 10.8 9.73 1.11 30 70

EUR/USD 10.0 9.80 1.02 46 54

EUR/NOK 6.3 6.20 1.01 47 53

Implied volatilities

=

t=== ~~= ~== pbh=~= = ~= ~= =~==~=====~===~==~==== ~= = = K= i=~= =~= = =~==~==broLpbh==~===~==~==~==~K=

^= = = pbh= ~~= ~== = = = ~= ~= = =~= = ~= ~K= q=

~= = = ~= ~= EKK= == broLpbh= ~= = = =~= F= = = =broLpbh===~====~= ~= ~= ~= p= == E= = = ~= ~= ~=X= = ~= = = ~= == = = FK= q= = ~=~~= ~= ~= ~~=~===~===~=~== = ~K= = `= = = ~=

broLpbh=~==VKQU====~=c~== = ~~= ~= ~==~=o~K=

EUR/SEK

=

r= = = = = == = = = ~== = = ~= ~= = nQ= =

=~=~=~== ~==~==QU===VKMMK==

Predicted change to Q4 2010Expected change EUR/SEK change

Swe rate spread vs EMU +50bps -33 re

Swe business conf +5 units -15 re

Total -48 re =

EUR/SEK long term fair value =^= = ~= = = p=~= ~= I= broLpbh= =~= = == ~= K= f= ====~==~===

= = = ~= ~======~=~~K=f==~===pbh=K=bro=E=abjF= = = ~= = = ~=K=_=NVTMJVMI=p=== = = ~= = ~=~= d~= E= bjrFI= = == ~= = = pbh= K=abjK= p= NVVOI= ~= = ~= ~=~= ~= = o~= = =~= ~= I= p= ~=

= ~=dam== ~= ~=~=d~=E~==~=~==bjrFK=a= = = =~= === ==abjLpbh=~=~K=l= ~= = = I= = ~= =~= = = = == ~= ~= = ~K= q=~~= = broLpbh= ======K===

Investor survey: The median respondent regards9.20 as a long term fair value for EUR/SEK.=

DEM/SEK

Swedish/Germanprices

==

10


11/24


Swedish equity market we remain bullish

We remain bullish on Swedishequities and look for the OMX toreach 1150 by year-end, meaning anadditional 15% rise this year.

=t= = = ~= ~= ~= == = = ~= ~= == = ~= ~~=~=I=~=~===~J=~=~===J==~===~====JK=q= p= = ~= = JI= ~= ~= k== = = ~= = =I=~=~=p=~=~====bj=~==~~=br==K=c=~===p= =~= = ~= =~=I= = = = = ~== ~= = = = p=~J=~==~=~=~=RJ~=K===

From micro level to macro themes:

Prooffice: Closing down redundancy businessPulp & Paper: Sack paper prices has turnedthe cornerVolvo: RehiringBiltema: Recently announced that it plans todouble the number of stores in Sweden in thenext four yearsTV Advertising space: Sold out in Feb andMarch according to media agenciesStaff companies: Increasing volumes=

Aggregated profit growth Enskilda Swedish

universe

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

==

Low valuation We expect 32 Swedish companies (27% of

our covered universe) to deliver all-time-high operating profits this year, but only 7%of companies are trading at all-time-highlevels

We have done an analysis of stock data forthe last 20 years and discovered that thecurrent proportion of companies withforecasted 2010 all-time-high profits whichare also trading at all-time-high prices currently at 25% is at an historically verylow level

In addition, we assume profit growth willcontinue into 2011 (Enskilda aggregate at22%). The historically low level of theEnskilda All-time-high Indicator leads us tobelieve that there is still upside for Swedishequities. =

=If not a profitability bubbles~~=~=~=~K=^===~= ~= ~= = OMMUI= = == ~= = = = ~= ~=~~= = = ~= = = ~= ~=

==~~==~K=k=~= = OMNN= ~= = = =OMMTLOMMUJI= ~= ~= = ~==~=~==~=K=^===~==~=~~=I= === ~= ~= ~= = =====OMMU=K=t=~=~== ~== ~= = ==~= = == ===OMB=~==~I===~=NRB=E~=~~=~=~=RBFK==

====

11


12/24


FX Survey: Surprisingly neutral NOK-positioning

Surprisingly, the market holds aneutral NOK position.

However, respondents see themarket as aggressively overweightin NOK.

Norges Bank rate hikes and riskappetite are regarded as the keypositive drivers for the NOK.

The current NOK rate already hasdovish implications for monetarypolicy.

=l=====~=~== =k~= ~=~= =~= ~~= ~= = ~=~= = = klh= ~= == ~K= eI= =~= ~= = = = = ~= = =~=J==klhK==

Market positioning in NOK

11%

71%

Own positioning Perceived market

positioning=

=

`~=~=~====klh= = ~= = NUB= = ~~=

=~===J===K=^= = ~= = = URB==~~====~===J==klhK===Positioning reflected in forecasts =`= = = ~= ~== ~~= ~= ~= ~=~= ~= = = = == = ~= = TKVM==aJ

OMNMK=cI==~===~= broLklh= ~= ~= = UKMMK= p=~~= = broLrpa= ~= NKPM= =~J=OMNMK===

jun-10 dec-10 jun-10 dec-10

Median 7.95 7.90 5.90 5.96

High 8.40 8.65 6.60 7.52

Low 7.60 7.60 5.20 5.27

EUR/NOK USD/NOK

Average during survey period EUR/NOK 8.0250, USD/NOK 5.88 ==

NOK best friends: Norges Bank andrisk appetite

q= == ~= = ==klh== = = == ~== = = k= _~= ~= =~K=f==I=klh=~==~=~=~=I=======~==~=~=~=~= K= pI= == = = = ~= = ~=~=~=~===klhK=t======~==~====klhK==

=

Norges Bank biggest positive NOK-driver but participants are dovishp=~~=~=~=~=~===~====~I==SUB= = = = = =~=~=NKTRB==j~=OQK=q=~~===~=~=OKQTB=====~=~=~=~=OKTRB==JOMNMK=q=b`_=~===

Market ranking of NOK drivers

Norg

esB

ank

Risk

appetite

Oil

price

Norgrowth

Liq

uidit

y/V

ola

tilit

y

Fis

ca

lpo

licy

Portf/

reb

alfl

ows

Norexports

Positive

Negative

12


13/24


=~=~=~==NKNVB=JOMNM=~==OKMPB==JOMNNK=f==I=~= ~= = = ~= ~K=

^= VMB= = = ~~= ~== ~= ==~==K==

NOK pressures Norges Bank, notexports^= ~= = = ~= I= =~~====klh=~=~==~==~K=pI= = VNB= = ~= == ~= = klh= ~= ~= ==~==~=TKSM=K=broK===

NOK pressures monetary policy

31%

38%

24%

7%

it already

has

below 8.00 below 7.60 not a factor

Speculators taking profit?^= ~~= ~= ~= ~=~= = = I= = ~= ~=~==~=~=~=======~=K===

View on future risk appetite

12%

41%

Own risk appetite Market risk appetite=

=

======

====

t=~=~====== ~= ~= =klhK=^~I== = ~~= ~= ~= = =

~~=~====~=~= ~K= l= = = =~= = ~= = = I= KK=~= ~= ~= = klhK=q= ~= ~= ~= = = =~= = ~= = ~=broLklh= = = = ~=~===klh=\===

Current NOK speculative trading vs.

six months historic

13%

35%

26%

17%

9%

considerably

lower or

ceased

somewhat

lower

unchanged somewhat

higher

considerably

higher

=

SEK to outperform Scandiesklh= = = ~= = == ~= = pbh= ~= = pbh=

= ~~K= ^~= = = ~=~~= = = ~~= ~== = = = K= ^=~= = TRB= = ~= ~= RVB= =~~= = = = pbh= == EKK= SRB= = = ~FK==eI= = NTB= = k~=~= ~= = = = EOVB===~FK==

Which of the Scandinavian currencies

will outperform the others during the

remainder of 2010?

59%

36%

0%5%

75%

17%

0%8%

SEK NOK DKK ISK

Financials Corporates ==

13


14/24


Norges Bank: policy rate normalization on track

A more broad-based recoverysuggests further normalisation ofpolicy rates.

Lower interest rate expectationsabroad and the strong NOK createuncertainly about how fast NorgesBank will move.

=k= _~= = ~= = = ~= =~= ~= = ~K= t===~=l=~=aI==~===== ~=~=NKTRB=

~==j~=OQ==K=q=l=j~= m= o= = = OR=~===J~I=~=OKTRB==~=~=~J=OMNM=~=QKMMB=~=JOMNNKK====

Norges Bank deposit rate and rate pathLevel, %

0.0

1.5

3.0

4.5

6.0

7.5

9.0

10.5

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

0.0

1.5

3.0

4.5

6.0

7.5

9.0

10.5

Level, %

Norges Bank deposit rate

Optimal rate path, MPR 3/09

Optimal rate path, MPR 2/09

=

t= = = ~= = = ~= ~=~J~= = = = ~= =~=~=~I=k=_~=~== =~=~=~= ~~====~== ~= = =~K=kI=====~=~===~=~=== ~= = klh= ~= ~= = =~I==~==~=~=~= ~= ~= = ~= ~== ~= ~= = = ~~= dam=E= L~= ~= F= ~== = = eOJMVK= q= ~===~===~=~== = =j~= m= oK= f=~I= = = = = = I=

= ~= = = = = ~= ~=I====~K====

Changes to the optimal rate path, MPR 3/09%-point

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Q409

Q110

Q210

Q310

Q410

Q111

Q211

Q311

Q411

Q112

Q212

Q312

Q412

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

%-point

Demand Productivity, wages, prices

Interest rate premium Interest rates abroad, NOK

Net change

=

eI==~=~==~=~=== = = ~= = ~= = =~= = ~== = = ==~==~=~=~===~==~==K=`=~==~====~=K= l~I= k= _~= =~=~==~=~=~K==

=Robust growth in private consumption=q= =~= = ===~==~=~=MKPB=~== = ~~= dam= = nQJMVI= ~=~= = = = = ~==K=j~~=dam==NKRB==OMMVI==~=~==NVUVK===

Mainland GDP and final domestic demand% change (2Q)

-3.0

-1.5

0.0

1.5

3.0

4.5

6.0

7.5

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09

-3.0

-1.5

0.0

1.5

3.0

4.5

6.0

7.5

% change (2Q)

GDP mainland Norway

Non-oil final domestic demand

=

14


15/24


m= = = J= ~= =~= = ~= ~JJ~= ~= ~===vbMVK=m~==~=

===~=nO===~JJ~=~=~==~=~~=PKQB==nQJMVI= = = ~= ~= =~=K=e=~=~== = =QKUB= =OMMV= E~=~===~======F=~= SKMB= = = ~==nQK=t= ~= = = = ~~= =I===~=~==~= = = ~= ~~= = TKRB= ~=~I= ~== VKVB==JOMMVI===OMJ~=~~K==

=^===~==~==OMNM=EI= = ~~I= = =~=FI= == ~= ~= = ======~== ~= = QKRB= = OMMVK= ^= J~J= ~= ~= = ~= = =~= = ~== I= ~==~= k= _~= RKRB= ~= =l=~==K===Tighter fiscal policy from 2011=

l~= = ~= = QKUB= = OMMVI=======~~=dam=E~~===FK===

q= = = = = = =~= ~= = = ~= ~=~= = = = = = = ===~==K=q=OMNM=== = ~J~= J= =klh=QR=~======= E~= = QB= = = d=m=c=d~FW=~==~=

I==== = = =~== OMNUK= q= c~=j= ~= ~J~====~==== = = = = OMNPI= = ~== == ====~K=q====~=~===== = OMNMI= = ~==~= == = ~= ~= k= _~=~= = ~= ~= ~I=J====OMNNJNOK==

Limited decline in oil sector investment =

l= = = ~= = ~= =~=~=~====== OMNMW= I= = ~= = == ~= = p~= k~=

=K=eI=~===~==OMMV=~=~=~=~I=~== == =~===NKQB=

= OMNM= = = ~= = ~= = ~==~==~~===OMMVK===

q~=====~==~I====~=PJRB=== ~= = = = = OMNMI= ~=~= ~= ~= SKQB= ~= = OMMV= ~=~= ~= = k= _~=l= = ~= ~K= eI== = = = = = =I======== = K= `=k= _~=

~==~~=damI==J====~===~K===

Core inflation above the banks forecast=pJ~J===eOJMV=~== ~= ~= = = k=_~= ~= = OMNMW= ~= ~= =~===~==I== J~= ~= = ~~= dam== = = = O= B= = O= BK=^==~==~~=I=== =~= = ~= =~=

E~=~=FK===f= = l=j~= m= oI= =OMNM= ~= = = =~~=dam=~= ~= BJ= ~= = =~=~=~=~===NBJ== JBI= ~=~= = = = = =nOJNNK= f= k= _~= = = ~= =~==~==~==~=== ~= ~K= f= ~I= =~=~==Q=B=~===OMNM==~===K=

= Core consumer prices% change (12M)

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

% change (12M)

CPI excl. taxes and energy

CPI excl. taxes and temporary changes in energy prices

Norges Bank's forecast, October 2009

=

`= ~= ~= ~= ~= = =~~= ~= = = `mfJ^qb= ~=

15


16/24


E= ~= ~= F== =OKPB= = NKVB= = c~K= k= _~==`mfub=~== = ~= =

= ~= = = = J== ~= ~= = = OKNB= =~=MKPB=~==~=~=====K=^=I===~== ~= ~I= ~= ~= = = ~=I= == ===~=====j~=m=oK===

NOK import-weighted indexIndex

80

84

88

92

96

100

104

108

112

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

80

84

88

92

96

100

104

108

112

Index

NOK import-weighted

NOK assumption MPR 3/09

NOK assumption MPR 2/09

=

eI=k=_~=~==~===klhW==~===~==~= = = EF= = = = =

I= = ~= ~= E~F== = = = = = =~~= = = ~= = == ~= =K=pI= = =~= E~= ~= = = `mfJ qb=F= ~= =~= = NKSB= =nQJMV= = MKPB= = c~I= = =~= = = k= _~= = ~=l= ~= ~= = = ==~==~=~~==MKRB==nOJNMK===Brighter outlook for global growth

=k= _~= === ~== ~== ~= K= q= ~= = =c~= = = ~= = ===I=~====~= = ~= ~= = =l=j~=m=oK=^=~=I== ~= ~= ~= OMNM= dam= = ==rp=~==b===N=B=~=BI=I= = = = p=E~= k~= ~= ~= ~F=~=~=~=N=BK===

=eI= =~=dam= ~== OMNM=I= = ~I= = fjc= ~=~==OKTB===rp=~=NKMB===

b= X= ~= = ~= = pb_= =OKOB= = = pK= ^= ~== = k= _~= ~= ~=

=~==~=====J=K===Unchanged optimal rate path=q== ~== ~=~=NKTRB=~== j~= OQ= ~= = I=~=~==OR====~=====~=j~K==

t= ~= = = = ~= = =~========~=~====~=~=~K=

^= ~I= ~= ~= = ~= E~= ==`mfF==MKTB==nQJNM=~=NKOB==nOJNN= ~= = k= _~= = ~=~~= = = = = ~= =~=~=K=qI==~=~===~==~==PKMMB==JOMNM=~=QKORB==JOMNNK===

NOK FRA curve adj. for credit risk and

optimal rate path from MPR 3/2009

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

07/09 01/10 07/10 01/11 08/11 02/12 08/12 02/13

NOK 3m FRA adj. for credit riskOptimal rate path MPR 3/2009SEB folio rate forecast

==

eI==~===~===~= ~~= = = ~= ~= =

= = = klh= ~~K= q====pb_=~===b`_I== = = = ~= = ~= == = JOMNM= = j~= OMNNI======k=_~== ~= ~K= pI==== =~= = = = ~= ~= ~= ~=====~W==

Pay Dec NOK FRA at 2.94%, target 3.15%.t= ===== ~=~==j~= OQK= ^= = = PKMB=

k= _~= ~= ~= = == = ~= = ~= ~=====~~====~=~=~K=

16


17/24

SEB Research Monday, 15 March 2010

NOK: Not cheap but not crowded either

Norway is financially strong withits substantial current account /budget surplus.

Continued foreign interest inNorwegian (energy) shares shouldgenerate NOK supportive flows.

However, NOK is trading above itslong-term average.

We forecast only limited NOKappreciation most indicatorsspeak for NOK range trading 2010.

=Oil the key NOK driverk~===~=~~==~= = = ~= = =d= m= c= d~=EdmcdFK= q~I= k= _~== = = = = ===~=~==== = = = I= == ~= = ~= =~= = = = = ~= = klhK=kI==klh===~=

= ~= = ~= = = =~= = W= NF= ~= = = =~= = = ~X= ~= OF= == ~= = ==~==~===K=^== = = ~= = = klh= =~= = ~= = =~==~=K==

Oil price outlookWe expect oil prices to average USD 75/b in 2010.The global economic recovery and strong non-

OECD energy demand are currently balancedagainst healthy crude oil supply conditions. Thesecounterbalancing factors continue to suggest thatcrude oil prices will remain range-bound betweenUSD 70-80/b in H1 2010. Marginally however, SEBforecasts are skewed to the downside due to amplecrude stocks, a comfortable OPEC reserve capacityand the risk of a slowdown in economic growth inH2 2010 and 2011 with crude oil prices estimated topeak above USD 80/b.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

OBX 0.22 0.44 0.39 0.42 0.56

Oil price 0.43 0.35 0.63 0.34 0.73

* Bank of Englands Effective Exchange Rate Index, Norway

NOK EER index correlations over time*

NOK correlations with stoxx and oil- NOK effective exchange rate index

0.

45

0.

29

0.

38

0.

54

0.

56

0.

53

0.

57

0.

30

0.

52

0.

73

0.0

0.10.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

2008 H1 2008 H2 2009 H1 2009 H2 -2010Mar

OBX Oil price

Foreign banks in the driving seat=t= cu= = ~~= = k= _~== = ~= ~= = ~= =klh= = = OMMRK= q= ~=~= = ~= == = = ~~=

===k~==~K=p~~= klh= = ~= ~= =~~==J~~=K=p==~= ~= =~== =====~==~=~====k~K====

billions

billions

=^= k= _~= = = ~= =~= cu= = ~= = = dmcdI= =======~=~= J~~= K= q= =

17


18/24


~= klh= ~= ~= klh== ~= = ~= ~= = = = =~=~=======~=

cu= ~= = = ~=~~K= p= = ~= ~== = RMB= = ~= klh= ~=I= = = ~= =~= ~= = = ~K=`==klh=~=~===~= ~= E~= = F= ~= == ~= = ~= = =K=p=====~I== ~= ~= = = =~= = klhK= t= ~= = ~= ~=

~==E~===F= ~= = = = ====~==~=====l=p=b~K===

NOKIndex

Billions

=

No FX purchases likely in 2010/11The Norwegian Government collects FXdenominated revenues from the Petroleum industrythrough Petoro, designated the States DirectFinancial Interest. These are transferred to theGovernment Pension Fund Global. The governmentalso collects oil tax revenues which aredenominated in NOK. The allocation from the state

budget to the GPFG is a function of the non-oilbudget balance. As Norway currently runs a highernon-oil budget deficit than stipulated by the Fiscalpolicy rule and because FX denominated revenuesremain high (exceeding the net allocation to theGPFG from the budget) there will probably be noneed for Norges Bank to buy FX in 2010. We alsoexpect the state budget for 2011 to show asubstantial non-oil budget deficit. Absent a sharplylower oil price, our main scenario assumes noNorges Bank FX purchases in 2011 either.

Foreign appetite for energy sharesq= = = = ~= = eO= OMMUI=

= = = ~= = == = ~= ~= ~= = =k~= = ~K= q= =~~= ~= = = ~= QMB= =

= = PMB= = = ~= = I= ~== = = =~= klh= = E= ~=

= broLklh= ~= NMKMMFK= t== = =====~== ~= =PQKUB==c~=OMMV==PSJPUB==OMNMK=q=~==~=~=NRJOMB====l_uK=t== l= p= b~= ~=~~~= = ~= klh=NRMM= = = = ~= =klh=~===klh=NUJQU=~= = = ~K= q= =~=~=klh=K===

Investor survey:Somewhat surprising our investorsurvey rank portfolio flows as NOK-neutral.=

billions

Foreignownershiprate(%)

==

Norges Bank: NOK overvaleudk= _~= = = = = == = =klh== ==== ~K= a~= =~= ~= ~= = = ~== E~= k= _~= F= = ~=~=~==~=~K==

Index

=

eI= = ~= = ~= ~=`mf=~===~~~=obbo=klh==EKK=lb`aF==klh=====

18


19/24


~= = = ~= = J=~~K= j~I= = = == ~J~= = broLklh= ~= UKMMK=

k= _~= = = fJQQ= EJ=klh=F==~===~= RB= = = = = ~FK= d=k~= = ~~= = ==~=~===klh=~~===K===

Investor survey: The current NOK-level is judgedby 69% of survey participants as having dovishmonetary policy implications. Only 9% of coporatessay current NOK-level inhibits exports.

Where is the NOK heading?

t= = NF= ~= = k~= =~= ~= = = =~= = k~=X= OF=~====rpa=TMJUMLX=PF=~== = = ~= ~= K= ~=~= ~X=~= QF== = ~== = ~= ~= = K=f~==~===~=~= = = ~= JOMNM=broLklh=~==TKVRK=p=====~=broLklh=~=~==

======~=~==~==~~==~=J=~=~I=====~=~== = = = = OMNMK=eI= ~= = k~= =~~=~====== I= = = = TKUM=broLklh= a= OMNM= ~K= j=~=~~==~=== = =~L= ===klh==~K===

EUR/NOK

=

Base case

Strong

NOK case

Weak

NOK case

OBX 375 413 315

Oil 75 90 65

Rate spread -1.95 -2.20 -1.60

Risk appetite 0 5 -10

EUR/NOK 7.95 7.74 8.34

Change in pips -2,100 3,900

Change in % -2.6 4.9

EUR/NOK Scenario analysis, 2010

Risks to the NOKq=k~===~=~== J= ~~K= a~= = =~= = = ~= ~= ~= ~= =~=~K=eI===~=

~= =obbo= ~= ~= =`mf= =====~===k~=K=kJ==~=~= = ~~= K= q== ~= = ~= = ~=~= ~= = ~= == EKK= ~= J= F== ~= = ~= ~= = = =K===

t=~====~=~==k~===~=

= L= = ~= ~=rpa= RMLK= ^= ~= ~= = =~= ~= = ~~= =~= = = = = =i~=~K=eI==~== ~= ~= ~K= oI== ~~= ~= = ~= =~= ~= ~= = klhK= t== = = = == = ~= = = ==I====~==

~= = = ~= ~= = =~===klh=~K==NOK strategies going forwardbroLklh=~=~=~=~=~=K= p= = = ~= = = S==TKTMLUKPM= =J= ~= == = = = = OMNMK=p= = = ~= TKVMLVR= =k=_~=~===j~=OQI=====~==~=

~= = = = ~= ~= ~=K==

19


20/24


Norwegian stock market positive outlook

We continue to hold a bullish viewbased on expected top-line growthand still attractive valuation.

We expect the Oslo StockExchange to gain 15-25% 2010.

j~=J~=~=~=~=~= = = = ~=OMMU= ~= OMMV= ~= = ~~== = J~= ~== ~= = k~= = ~==~=====

=~===~==~==~= =~== K=c= ~= = ~= OMMUI= =l=p=b~=ElpbF=~===== = ~= = OMMV= = ~=SRB= = E= klh= FI= = QOB==~~===jp`f=t==E=~= FK= f= rpa= = = lpb=====~=VUBK===

q=~==~=~===== = = ~= ~= ~= ~=~~= = = = ~=~=====k~=~= K=c=== == ~= ~= = ~= = =PNKUBI===PQKUB===~=NO=K=t=~===~==~= =I=== = ~~= = = =~~====~K===

Foreignownershiprate(%

)

USD/Barrel

=

q= ~= ~= =~=~~=I= ~= = = ~= =I= = = ~= ~= == ~K= `= = = ~== = = = =~== = ~= =~I=~==~= K=eI= ~= = ~=~~=~==~==~I== = = ~= ===~=~==~=~===~=K===

p=~= ~~= ~== =~== =k=OMMU=EmL_sW=MKUMF= = ~= ~= = = =mL_s= ~= ~== ~= SB===OMJ~==~K==

Norwegian P/BV

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

220.0

240.0

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

Median

==

t= ~= = ~= =~=======~I= = ~= ~= = ~= == ~= = ~= ===~=~====~=NOJNR=K =l=~=~=

= = = ~= ~= ~= NMB=~==~=I==~=OMB== = OMMVK= l~= = ===PMB==~=~~=~=EJPUB==OMMVFI========= = RMBI= = PMB= ~= NRB===OMMU=~=OMMVI=K===

20


21/24


Denmark growth remains below trend

Growth remains well below trend Buy Swedish CB vs. Danish=t==~=~===== a~= K= q= = = == ~= = = == ~= = ~== ~= = ~= = ~K=pI= = = = ~= ~= ~== ~= ~= = K=c=~=~=RB===damI==~= ~= = = = = NKQB= =

~K=a===OMNM===I== J= ~= = ~== = ~= ~~= = =K=_=~=~=~~=~== ~= I= = = =~= = I= ~= ~=OMNMK=

q=I= = ~= ~=== = ~= = = = ~=~==b`_==~===RK=f==== = = ~= ~= = = =

= ~= a~= = =~I= = ~= = = =~K= eI= = = ~=~= ~= = = RM= =b~= = ~= ~= ===~=b`_=~K==

Swedish CBs cheap vs. Danisha= = ~= = K= =~=~==I=p=PJQ===E`_F==~==~=~=

~= ~= ^pt= ~= J= = OMJOR= ~= = a~= J~~I= ~= ~= ~= ~== K= ~= ~= = ===~===~=E= f=bI=c=OS=~=c=f=fI=j~=NNFK==

EUR ASW spread curves:SEK-and DKK-denominated issues basis s w apped to 6m euribor

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Mar-09 Dec-11 Sep-14 Jun-17 Mar-20 Dec-22

Stadshypotek

Swedbank Hypotek

Eurohypo (GER)

BBVA (SP)

BNPP (FR)

RealKredit non-callables (DKK)

==

l==~I=~===~=^pt=~=~=~===~~~=K=a~= J~~I= = ==p=`_==~=~=P= ~~= a~= J~~I= = ~~=~====~=E=~=`=_=fI=c=NUFW===

^= ~= ~= = ~= ~== = OMNM= ~= ~~= = =

g~~K= ^= ~= ~= ~= = =~= = = p= `_= K=~= = ~= = = = = ~=~=J~K=b==~==~=~=~=~=~=~===~== ~= ~= = ====~==`_=~=====_~=~==~== ~~I= ~= ~= = ==~= = ==QMJRMB= ==~=~===OMNMK==

=o~= = ~~~= = broK= p=~= = ~I= = p= ~= ~== broJ~=g=`_K=^=~= ~~= = = = ~== ~= ~= = = pbh= ~=~= ~= = = ~= ^pt= ~=K=q= ~= = ~~~= =bro= = = == =~===pbh===~K=

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Iceland patience is a fishermans best friend

^===~===I=== = = ~= = f~= ~K= t\=cI= == == = = === = = ~= K=pI= = = ~= E=F= ~= = = == = = ~K= _I= = ~== = ~I= = ~= =~= ~= = = = ~= ~== ~= ~= = = =====~K==

==

^=f~=~==~==f~=== = k= = = = ~== = K= q= J=~======~==~==fjc======= ~= = ~= ==~K=t===~== = = EKK= = ~= L~=~= = a= OMNNF= == = = = = ~==~=f~===~~=~I= = = = ~I== ~= ~= ~==~==K===

Opposition considerationsc==~I========

==f~==~===~=~==K=q=~=== = ~= = ~= === I= = ~== ~= = ~= = =~=K=`J~=~~== ~= = ~= ~= = =~~= = ~= = m~= J~=~=~=K==

_= ~= a= ~= ~=~= = = = =~K=f==I========~==K=t= ~= ~I= = = ~= = ===~=~===~= = = ~= ~~= =f~K= _= = ~= = ~=~~=I=~==f~=~=~~= = ~~I= =====~=~~=~K==

What next?t= = = ~= == K= ^= = =~= i= ~= ~= HOTR= = == = = ~= = == = = ~= = ~= ~===i~~=~===== =~= = = =~=VMB= = = K=l=~= ~= == ~I===~=~====== f~= = = =

k= = ~= ~= = = == fjc= ~= ~= ~K= q= =~~= = ~= = ~~==~=~====~==fph=~K===

Trading opportunitiest= ~~= = = = = == = ~K= t= ~~== broLfph= = = =~=~= ~= OTM= ~= = = ~== = E___HL_~~PFK= q=

=~= = = ==~= ~= ~~= = = =~= ~= = = ~== = = = = ~=NTQK= j~I= = ~= =~~=~==~=~K=c== ~= = = OM= ~= PU= =b=j~=`=^=~=~=pb_=b=j~=~=HQS=U=RMS=OPN=NMK===

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The technical outlook

EUR/SEK decline levelling off EUR/NOK significant support USD/SEK & USD/NOK base building NOK/SEK due for a bounce=broLpbh= = = = = ~= ~= = ~== = NNKUMK= q= = = = =~= VKSSLNMKMM= = = = ==~==~===~=VKRRK=q=~====~=== = = OMMR= ~= =~= ~= ~= ~= ~K= p= ~== = ~= ~= =VKVRLNMKMUJ~~K=

broLklh====TKVVJI=== = ~= ~K= q=~= = = ~= = =TKUQLTKVV==~K=^==~=UKNPLNU==K=

rpaLpbh= C= rpaLklh= ~= = = ===~==~==~=

~K= q= = ~= = =rpaLpbh= = ~= = =~= = ~= = = ~== ~= ~= UKMM= K= q=== = = = ~= TKQRK=_= SKVU= = ~= ~= =~K=

rpaLklh= = = ~= ~= ~I== ===~=== ~= = ~= ~= ~= = = =SKNMLOMJ~~= ~= ~= = SKQMLSM=

~K=

klhLpbh= = = = = = = ~=K=q=OMMU=====~== =~= ====~= ~= ~= = = = = ~~K= q== ~= ~= = ~= =NKORLOSJ===~=~==NKNS===~~===K=

=

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With an eye for trading opportunities

Did you know that you can do all your trading business via the Internet?

By using Trading Station, you are always in contact with the global trading market.

You get access to the latest exchange rates, and you can buy and sell at the blink of an

eye spots, swaps or forwards.

To find out how you can develop your electronic trading, visit us at www.seb.se/mb.

Or call one of our traders to activate our e-service:

Gothenburg +46 (0)31 774 90 60

Malm +46 (0)40 667 69 10

Stockholm +46 (0)8 506 231 91

SEB report: Swedish krona seen at 9 per euro end 2010

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