Seasonal Outlook for Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 for Winter 2013/14 for Bulgaria Bulgaria Ilian Gospodinov Ilian Gospodinov National Institute of Meteorology and National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology Hydrology Bulgarian Academy of Sciences Bulgarian Academy of Sciences SEECOF-10, 20 November 2013, SEECOF-10, 20 November 2013,
Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 for Bulgaria. Ilian Gospodinov National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology Bulgarian Academy of Sciences SEECOF-10, 20 November 2013, Belgrade. Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 for Bulgaria. Verification Atlantic SST/NAO Overview of models - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Seasonal Outlook for Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 for Winter 2013/14 for
BulgariaBulgaria
Ilian GospodinovIlian Gospodinov
National Institute of Meteorology National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrologyand Hydrology
Bulgarian Academy of SciencesBulgarian Academy of Sciences
SEECOF-10, 20 November 2013, SEECOF-10, 20 November 2013, BelgradeBelgrade
Seasonal Outlook for Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 for Winter 2013/14 for
BulgariaBulgaria
VerificationVerification Atlantic SST/NAOAtlantic SST/NAO Overview of modelsOverview of models Seasonal outlook for winter 2013/14 Seasonal outlook for winter 2013/14
for Bulgaria and the SEECOF regionfor Bulgaria and the SEECOF region
Seasonal Outlook for Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 for Winter 2013/14 for
BulgariaBulgaria+2 warm
+1 warm or normal
0 normal
-1 cold or normal
-2 cold
Baseline period 1980-2009Baseline period 1980-2009
+2 wet
+1 wet or normal
0 normal
-1 dry or normal
-2 dry
all categories
no forecast
Seasonal Outlook for Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 for Winter 2013/14 for
BulgariaBulgaria SkillSkill
Temperature
Forecast
Category
Score
Month-1 Month-2 Month-3 Month-1 Month-2 Month-3
June 0 1 0 0.44 4 3 4
July 0 1 0 0.22 4 3 4
August 1 -1 1 1.84 3 0 3
Summer 1 1 0 1.22 4 4 2
Precipitation
Forecast
Category
Score
Month-1 Month-2 Month-3 Month-1 Month-2 Month-3
June 0 -1 0 1.28 2 0 2
July 1 0 1 0.25 3 4 3
August 0 1 0 -1.38 2 0 2
Summer 0 0 0 0.30 4 4 4
Seasonal Outlook for Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14 for Winter 2013/14 for
BulgariaBulgaria SkillSkill
Temperature
Forecast
Index
Score
Month-1 Month-2 Month-3 Month-1 Month-2 Month-3
December 0 0 0 -1.29 2 2 2
January 1 1 0 0.73 4 4 3
February 0 1 1 1.47 2 4 4
Winter 1 1 1 0.69 4 4 4
Precipitation
Forecast
Index
Score
Month-1 Month-2 Month-3 Month-1 Month-2 Month-3
December 1 1 0 1.63 3 3 0
January -1 -1 0 0.59 0 0 3
February 1 -1 0 1.63 3 0 0
Winter 0 0 0 1.83 0 0 0
Winter Forecast NAOWinter Forecast NAO How Bulgarian winters relate to NAOHow Bulgarian winters relate to NAO..
CD CW WD WW
NAO+ 25 0 50 25
NAO- 25 50 0 25
CD CW WD WW
NAO+ 25 17 33 25
NAO- 25 33 17 25
Winter Forecast ENSO/NAOWinter Forecast ENSO/NAO How Bulgarian winters relate to ENSO How Bulgarian winters relate to ENSO
La Nina CD CW WD WW
NAO+ 32 18 32 18
NAO- 32 32 18 18
El Nino CD CW WD WW
NAO+ 18 18 32 32
NAO- 18 32 18 32
Seasonal Outlook for Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14Winter 2013/14 North Atlantic SSTNorth Atlantic SST
Seasonal Outlook for Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14Winter 2013/14 North Atlantic SSTNorth Atlantic SST
Seasonal Outlook for Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14Winter 2013/14 North Atlantic SSTNorth Atlantic SST
Seasonal Outlook for Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14Winter 2013/14 North Atlantic SSTNorth Atlantic SST
Seasonal Outlook for Seasonal Outlook for Winter 2013/14Winter 2013/14 North Atlantic SSTNorth Atlantic SST