Seasonal Forecast to Impact Outlook for Disaster Resilience in Asia-Pacific Sixteenth Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII) 7 th May 2020, Organized by Beijing Climate Centre (BCC) and WMO via Video Conferencing (14:00-16:00, Beijing Time)
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Seasonal Forecast to Impact Outlook for Disaster Resilience in Asia-Pacific
Sixteenth Session of the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, Assessment and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII)
7th May 2020, Organized by Beijing Climate Centre (BCC) and WMO via Video Conferencing (14:00-16:00, Beijing Time)
THE DISASTER RISKSCAPE ACROSS ASIA-PACIFIC
PATHWAYS FOR RESILIENCE, INCLUSION AND EMPOWERMENT
Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2019
Volumetric analysis
Climate risk accounts for 85 per cent of the regional ‘riskscpace’
Drought contributes to 70% of the losses attributed to weather/climate events
0
30
60
90
Jun-20Jul-20
Aug-20Sep-20
Oct-20
Flood
Drought
Probability of risk
Asian Monsoon season
Seasonal forecast capture the temporal risk profile.
Floods and droughts are primarily driven by the Asian monsoon
Seasonal outlook
Potential Impacts
Exposure of people/asset
Vulnerability / coping capacity
Long-term, short-term development planning &
Disaster management
Population exposed to below/above-normal precipitation.
40-60 below normal: 670 million people
60+ below normal: 78 million people
40-60 above normal: 1.02 billion people
60+ above normal: 14 million people
Number of population exposed
Identifying populations with multiple layers of vulnerability and hazards
The Human Development Index (HDI) is a statistic composite index of life expectancy, education, and per capita income indicators, which are used to rank countries into four tiers of human development.
For development planning • Short-term: Provide
immediate relief to drought-stricken areas with low HDI.
• Long-term: Historical seasonal forecasts can be used to build a disaster-socioeconomic timeline to help policymakers properly budget in the national plans.
Enhancing the capacity of hydro-meteorological organizations to develop dynamic risk information, from global/regional resources, for managing drought.