Scotland Centered Energy 2030 | Stuart Haszeldine

Scottish Carbon Capture & Storage

Murchison House, West Mains Road, Edinburgh EH9 3LATelephone +44 (0)131 650 0270 www.sccs.org.uk

Scotland centred energy 2030

Building a vision for Scotland’s energy future

12 March 2014, ECCI

Stuart HASZELDINE University of Edinburgh

2Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014

Storyline

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Context -42% carbon by 2020 - 60% by 2030- 90% carbon by 2050 (ref 1990 base)

• All regions make extensive use of their regional renewables potential

• Electricity is exchanged through the country

• Pumped storage is exploited

• Electricity import – minimal

• Electricity export - encouraged


Climate and unburnable carbon

“Cumulative total emissions of CO2 and global mean surface temperature response areapproximately linearly related”IPCC 2013 AR5 WG1

now

Emission reduction2050 limit for 2 C50% confidence

No action2100 limit for > 8 C50% confidence

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TOTAL emissions of fossil carbon have to be containedNot just the rate of emission : CCS, RES, Efficiency buy time

Industry needs CCS. Unburnable carbon V hydrocarbon production

4Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014 [email protected]

http://www.sccs.org.uk/news/2013/IndustrialCO2SourceClustersInScotland.pdf

NOT just electricityEnergy USE

Energy EXTRACTED and EXPORTED

Scotland is a hydrocarbon use

economy

SCCS 2011

10 Mt CO2 “saved by Res electricity” 2012 (simple calc. )

10


Scotland extracts hydrocarbons

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Energy EXTRACTED and EXPORTED

http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2006/01/19092748/8

Energy Study 2006 TWhr

Wind 2012 15 TWhr 37 TWhr total

Electricity 33 TWhr/yr 2006


Scotland energy use = electric + heat

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TOTAL energy use = electric + heat + transport + industry + …. 166 TWHr / yr 2006


Vision : energy demand

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Other carbon emissions

Heat

2014 demand 2030 demand

Heat

Power Power

Industry

Travel

Industry

Land 20%

Planes &

ships

Renewables and CCS

CCS ONLY

TravelEfficiency, gas, electric


Vision : energy supply 2030

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2030 Wind – onshore 20 TW hr

(+ 20 TWhr offshore)(Tide 2 TWhr /yr)

(Wave 1 TWhr / yr)Gas + (coal ?)

biomass + CCS Petrochemical + CCS

Insulation & efficiency Traded sector ? Imports

W

W

WW

Iceland ?

England ?Europe ?

Norway ?Denmark ?

Scotland

CCS

CCS

CCS

Demand 2006 165 TW hr / yr

Demand 2009 143 TWhr /yr

Demand 2030 150 – 200 TW hr/yr

FF

FIFF

Oil & gasCO2-EORCO2

Price power, heat Build rates

Transmission charges

WW

Close coal & gas genrn ?Close North Sea extract ?

Industry + CCS ?

Wind + TideForestryIndustryCCS on fossil


Discussion

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Electricity and All-Energy supply In a world of rapid Climate change Slow industry and finance changeand unburnable carbon

10Scotland centred energy, ECCI, Edinburgh 12March2014 [email protected]


Discussion

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Electricity and All-Energy supply In a world of rapid Climate change Slow industry and finance changeand unburnable carbon

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BP Energy Outlook 2014

BaU =

DO Nothing

= DO Sustainable

Developing economiesBRIC, MINT

“ us “

Carbon not planning to decrease


Scotland is a hydrocarbon economy

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Energy produced and EXPORTED


Energy Study 2006 TWhr

Wind 2012 15 TWhr 37 TWhr total

Electricity 33 TWhr/yr 2006

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90% CO2 reduction on site75% along whole chain

What does CCS look like ?

expensive

uncertain

FINANCE

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Depth 1 - 4 kmImpermeable SEALOverlies Porous RESERVOIR

CO2 storage is a long way down


STATE of CCS – REAL new projects

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Zero Emission Power (Europe trade organisation)

12 full sized projects by 2012

EEPR 1 Billion x 6 projects

IEA International Energy Agency

100 projects by 2020 Power AND Industry

= Two (0) by 2020

= ZERO (1)

= ONE (3)

UK (small, EU edge)2005, 2007, 2012CO2 inject 2019£ 1 Bn Prize


Does UK Govt WANT CCS ??

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“low cost” = high nuclear

2050 Calculator Carbon and energy : default exampleLlllll

n

“carbon and bio ”= high fossil and carbon capture


Scottish fossil energy extraction

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Conventional Oil + gas 2014 - 2050

CO2 –EOR 2020 – 2035

Shale oil2020 – 2035

Shale gas2020 – 2060

Underground coal gas 2020 - 2200


Making it happen

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PROBLEM Tax N Sea ≠ Spend on CCS

SOLUTION• Divert oil tax to green energy

• Extraction tax, to incentivise storage of carbon

Oil, coal, shale tax

“roads, hospitals and schools”

Green clean

2 x CCS project

now

future ?


Avoiding a carbon bubble1 tonne CO2 out = 1 tonne CO2 in

[email protected] fossil carbon extraction, faster ≠ Mitigation later ….


INDUSTRY IN SCOTLAND

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• 2000 – 4,000 DIRECT jobs in Scottish industry, 250,000 offshore10,000 in Renewables

• Industry process emissions can not be displaced – must be captured

• Should h/c resource be left in the ground ? Very unlikely to change an EU / UK oil/gas price

• Scotland has lots of oil. And coal, shale oil, shale gas• Developing CCS requires synergy – to build pipes and storage


INDUSTRY IN SCOTLAND

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Keeping C intensive industry – needs CO2 cleanup


Creating a low carbon industry zone

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Renewables are goodBut not large enough – heroic effort possible

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All electricity – by fuel

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Summary

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• Electricity is a small part of energy. Include HEAT, INDUSTRY

• Is carbon, or money more dominant ?

• Security of supply – renewables PLUS storage, or INFILL

• Economics of transmission charging – Scotland centric

• Mixed generation – windpower on best sites- balancing carbon extraction

Trees for fuel- baseload flexible

generation – with CCS-

• Aim beyond 2030 – to 2050, …… 3,100 AD

Scotland Centered Energy 2030 | Stuart Haszeldine

Environment