Science Seminar Series 10 Andrew Lowe

Environment InstituteScience Seminar Series 2009

How can we help biodiversity adapt to the ravages of climate change?

Presented by: Professor Andrew LoweAustralian Centre for Evolutionary Biology & Biodiversitywww.adelaide.edu.au/environment/acebb

Climate change is with usClimate change is with us

Increasing temperatureIncreasing temperatureRainfall redistributionRainfall redistributionRising sea levelsRising sea levelsFire frequencyFire frequency

Expect major impacts on ecosystemsExpect major impacts on ecosystems– Phenological and ecosystem integrityPhenological and ecosystem integrity– Migration of speciesMigration of species– AdaptationAdaptation– ExtinctionExtinction

ecological vs. evolutionary adaptationecological vs. evolutionary adaptation

Native range

Invasive range

realised niche

fundamental niche

herbivorecompetitor

realised niche

fundamental niche

competitor

bioclimatic envelope

bioclimaticenvelope

Enemy release Adaptational shift

Future expectations Future expectations

Queensland Rainforest vertebratesQueensland Rainforest vertebratesFox et al, 2003, Proc Roy SocFox et al, 2003, Proc Roy Soc

Future expectations Future expectations

Fox et al, 2003, Proc Roy SocFox et al, 2003, Proc Roy Soc

Things are already starting to changeThings are already starting to change

Oak trees budding more than 1 month earlier

Swallows arriving half a month earlier

Namibian Aloe TreeNamibian Aloe TreeSignificant range shift in last 100 yearsSignificant range shift in last 100 years

19142002

Trailing edge (north)

Diversity & Distributions, 2008

Namibian Aloe TreeNamibian Aloe TreeSignificant range shift in last 100 yearsSignificant range shift in last 100 years

19042002

Leading edge (south)

Diversity & Distributions, 2008

Need to define new conservation Need to define new conservation paradigms in face of climate changeparadigms in face of climate change

Biodiversity corridor planningBiodiversity corridor planning

Conserve and expand refugial populationsConserve and expand refugial populations

Connect landscape to promote migrationConnect landscape to promote migration

Assisted dispersal or predictive provenancingAssisted dispersal or predictive provenancing

Long-term experiments and ecosystem monitoringLong-term experiments and ecosystem monitoring

Setup long-term restoration experimentsSetup long-term restoration experiments

Monitoring changing ecosystemsMonitoring changing ecosystems

Biodiversity corridor planningBiodiversity corridor planningConserve and expand refugial populationsConserve and expand refugial populations

Basis of current conservation action, Basis of current conservation action, – no need to change, no need to change, – i.e. not going to make things worsei.e. not going to make things worse

Population size of 1000 promotes adaptationPopulation size of 1000 promotes adaptation– Sgro, Lowe, Hoffman, Sgro, Lowe, Hoffman, TREETREE

Other mechanisms to promote adaptationOther mechanisms to promote adaptation

Locate refugia in landscape (Jolene Scoble)Locate refugia in landscape (Jolene Scoble)

SpeciesSpecies Migrations Migrations – historical context– historical context

600 sequences of oak600 sequences of oak(Brewer et al 2002 (Brewer et al 2002 Forest Ecol & Man.))

Maximum rate of 500 m/year; 10-20 km in a Maximum rate of 500 m/year; 10-20 km in a generationgeneration

Phylogeographic analysis of European oakPhylogeographic analysis of European oak

12 EU labs2613 populations12,214 trees37 countries45 cpDNA typesPetit et al, 2002a, Forest Ecol & Man.

Phylogenetic analysisPhylogenetic analysis

reveals distinct lineagesreveals distinct lineages

and colonisation routesand colonisation routes

?

? ?

(pollen evidence)

Primary refugium

Primary refugium(no pollen evidence)

Secondary refugium

500 km

??

Petit et al, 2002a, Forest Ecol & Man.

Phylogenetic diversity and species refugiaPhylogenetic diversity and species refugia

Hewgill & Moritz

Biodiversity corridor planningBiodiversity corridor planningConserve and expand refugial populationsConserve and expand refugial populations

Combine genetic refugia with landscape refugia & ecological gradientsCombine genetic refugia with landscape refugia & ecological gradients

Biodiversity corridor planningBiodiversity corridor planningLandscape permiabilityLandscape permiability

How will species cope with How will species cope with fragmented landscapes between refugia?fragmented landscapes between refugia?

SA pre-European stateSA pre-European state

Total area = 780,000 haTotal area = 780,000 ha

Dave Turner, DEH

Current stateCurrent state

Total area = 780,000 haTotal area = 780,000 ha

Remnants = 98,000 haRemnants = 98,000 ha

Approx 12.5% remainingApprox 12.5% remaining

Dave Turner, DEH

Biodiversity corridor planningBiodiversity corridor planningLandscape permiabilityLandscape permiability

Migration rate and Migration rate and landscape interactionlandscape interaction

A) Deforested area

B) Rainforest

C) Tall eucalypt forest

Pavlacky et al, in press, Molecular Ecology

Not all fragmented Not all fragmented landscape interactions landscape interactions negative, for some negative, for some species open habitat can species open habitat can promote geneflowpromote geneflow

Depends on scale 2-10 Depends on scale 2-10 km maybe ok, 500km notkm maybe ok, 500km not

Incorporate actual gene Incorporate actual gene flow parameters into flow parameters into landscape modellinglandscape modelling

Socioeconomic matrixSocioeconomic matrix

Biodiversity corridor planningBiodiversity corridor planningLandscape permiabilityLandscape permiability

Dick, 2001, Proc Roy Soc

Permeability of landscapesPermeability of landscapes

David Turner, DEH

Biodiversity corridor planningBiodiversity corridor planning Assisted dispersal and restorationAssisted dispersal and restoration

Assisted dispersalAssisted dispersal– Moving target speciesMoving target species

Predictive provenancing Predictive provenancing – Using predictions of future distributionUsing predictions of future distribution

Composite provenancingComposite provenancing

Current distributionCurrent distribution Future distributionFuture distribution

E obliquaMessmate stringybark

Dave Turner

Biodiversity corridor planningBiodiversity corridor planning Assisted dispersal and restorationAssisted dispersal and restoration

Fre

quen

cy o

f pr

opag

ule

disp

ersa

l

Distance from parent plant

Local Intermediate Long distance

Local

Intermediate

Long distance

Recpmmended proportion of stock sourced from local, intermediate and long distance sources, followingnatural gene flow dispersal kernal

Overiding local is Overiding local is best policybest policy– Maximises local Maximises local

adaptationadaptation– lowers diversity, lowers diversity,

reduces future reduces future resilienceresilience

Mimic species Mimic species movement and movement and gene flowgene flow

Broadhurst et al, 2008, Evolutionary Applications

Biodiversity corridor planningBiodiversity corridor planningIntegrated planning e.g. EmWIntegrated planning e.g. EmW

Combine reserve systems and community uptake (heritage agreements)Craig Costion, PhD, University of Adelaide

Biodiversity corridor planningBiodiversity corridor planningIntegrated planning e.g. EmWIntegrated planning e.g. EmW

Combine reserve systems and community uptake (heritage agreements)Craig Costion, PhD, University of Adelaide

Long-term experiments and ecosystem monitoringLong-term experiments and ecosystem monitoring

Need to set upNeed to set up– Long-term restoration plantings to test outcomesLong-term restoration plantings to test outcomes– Ecosystem condition monitoringEcosystem condition monitoring

Restoration Restoration plantingsplantings

•5 terrestrial biodiversity corridors across biogeographic zones – linking reserves

•Across SA government

•Including research institutes and business

Terrestrial reserves and nature links corridors

NatureLinksNatureLinks•Using predictive modelling, for species and communities, identify pinch points and permeability of landscape

•Integrate adaptation (corridors) and mitigation (carbon sequestration) in biodiversity conservation strategy planning and incentivisation

•Incorporate assisted dispersal and adaptive planting strategies

Terrestrial reserves and nature links corridors

•Example - River Murray Forest

Long-term experiments and ecosystem monitoringLong-term experiments and ecosystem monitoringRestoration plantingsRestoration plantings

Speciespast present future

Provenancepast present future

Gene flowpast present future

Onground plantingsBest current practise:

1. Species and provenance selection

2. Evaluate outcomes with MBIs

Future recommendations

Integrate info to derive new evidence-based

guidelines

future

Long-term experiments and ecosystem monitoringLong-term experiments and ecosystem monitoring

Terrestrial Ecosystem Research NetworkTerrestrial Ecosystem Research Network– NCRIS funding ($500M in research infrastructure)NCRIS funding ($500M in research infrastructure)– TERN – $20M, ecosystem monitoring (remote TERN – $20M, ecosystem monitoring (remote

sensing, flux and plots), informatics and analysissensing, flux and plots), informatics and analysis

Ecosystem monitoring Ecosystem monitoring – Dynamics and responses of Australian ecosystems Dynamics and responses of Australian ecosystems

relatively poorly understood relatively poorly understood – Climate change impacts difficult to predictClimate change impacts difficult to predict– Need long-term monitoring and analysisNeed long-term monitoring and analysis

Monitoring to focus on Australian rangelands in first Monitoring to focus on Australian rangelands in first phase, to be extended into mesic systemsphase, to be extended into mesic systems later laterTarget existing survey & monitoring sites where possibleTarget existing survey & monitoring sites where possible

Issues to be addressed by ecosystem monitoring programmeIssues to be addressed by ecosystem monitoring programme

IssuesIssues ApplicationApplication MethodologyMethodology

Biodiversity discoveryBiodiversity discovery - species knowledge- species knowledge - taxonomy - taxonomy - DNA barcoding- DNA barcoding

Species distributionSpecies distribution - presence/absence - presence/absence

- modelling distribution - modelling distribution (e.g. bioclimatic envelope prediction for (e.g. bioclimatic envelope prediction for

present/futures) present/futures)

- plot based- plot based

Demographic profileDemographic profile - modelling species dynamics, - modelling species dynamics, demographic processesdemographic processes

- plot/photo based (age profile)- plot/photo based (age profile)- phylogeography/pop genetics - phylogeography/pop genetics

(connectivity) (connectivity)

Condition assessmentCondition assessment - change over time/structure/invasives- change over time/structure/invasives - plot/photo based – - plot/photo based – productivityproductivity

- - landscape function analysis landscape function analysis

Remote sensing ground Remote sensing ground truthingtruthing

- improved remote sensing accuracy - improved remote sensing accuracy and validation of derived products and validation of derived products (eg LAI)(eg LAI)

- plots – ground cover/leaf area- plots – ground cover/leaf area

Soil resourcesSoil resources - soil crusts- soil crusts

- stocks and flows of soils- stocks and flows of soils- role in arid ecosystems- role in arid ecosystems

- C, N, P, K assessment- C, N, P, K assessment- DNA barcoding/taxonomy- DNA barcoding/taxonomy

Climate/MoistureClimate/Moisture - water cycling in rangelands- water cycling in rangelands - water collection- water collection- soil moisture probe- soil moisture probe

Climate change Climate change monitoringmonitoring

- shift in ecotonal boundaries- shift in ecotonal boundaries - plots across ecotones- plots across ecotones

Focus on perennial flora and soils to start with, but could extend to fauna (ACRIS)

Plot/transect based methodsPlot/transect based methods

Species presence/absence Species presence/absence

Structure, veg class heightStructure, veg class height

Plot/transect (belt/line/point)Plot/transect (belt/line/point)

Age/size profileAge/size profile

RecruitmentRecruitment

Invasives, degradedInvasives, degraded

Landscape functionLandscape function

New methods to be developedNew methods to be developed

Plot/transect based methods, landscape functionPlot/transect based methods, landscape function

DNA barcoding/taxonomyDNA barcoding/taxonomy

Photo points and image interpretationPhoto points and image interpretation

Population genetics: connectivity etcPopulation genetics: connectivity etc

Remote sensing ground truthing & plot visualisation Remote sensing ground truthing & plot visualisation

Soil nutrient stocks, moisture, cryptic biodiversitySoil nutrient stocks, moisture, cryptic biodiversity

Specific recommendations to pick up changesSpecific recommendations to pick up changes

ACRIS TERN ecosystem monitoring ABRS

Bush Heritage Earthwatch

Ecoinformatics & Remote SensingTERN

Atlas of Living Australia(AVH, OzCAM)

Ecological Understanding Biodiversity discovery TaxonomyEcosystem Function/condition Species distribution DNA barcodingEcosystem change Rare/threatened species Systematics

Field survey

Knowledge

Accessible information/data

TERN Partnerships and collaborationTERN Partnerships and collaboration

Need to define new conservation Need to define new conservation paradigms in face of climate changeparadigms in face of climate change

Biodiversity corridor planningBiodiversity corridor planning

Conserve and expand refugial populationsConserve and expand refugial populations

Connect landscape to promote migrationConnect landscape to promote migration

Assisted dispersal or predictive provenancingAssisted dispersal or predictive provenancing

Long-term experiments and ecosystem monitoringLong-term experiments and ecosystem monitoring

Setup long-term restoration experimentsSetup long-term restoration experiments

Monitoring changing ecosystemsMonitoring changing ecosystems

Environment InstituteScience Seminar Series 2009

Next Seminar: 22 June – 12pm

Predicting coral reef biodiversity patterns for conservation a confederacy of

ecological scales

Presented by: Doctor Camille Mellin