IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report IPCC Fifth Assessment Report WGI, WGII, WGIII, Synthesis Report 2013/2014 Chris Field Co-chair, WGII
Science Policy Interface Seminar
Aug 15, 2015
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IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report
IPCC Fifth Assessment ReportWGI, WGII, WGIII, Synthesis Report
2013/2014
Chris FieldCo-chair, WGII
EMISSIONSand Land-use Change
IMPACTS
Warming over the 21st century
End of 21st century
Based on WGII Figure 22-1
End of 21st century
1901-2012
Risk Level withCurrent Adaptation
Risk LevelVeryLow Med
VeryHigh
4°C
2°C
Present
Long Term(2080-2100)
Near Term (2030-2040)
Assessing risk
Potential forAdditional Adaptation to Reduce Risk
Risk Level withHigh Adaptation
Africa
HEALTH
PresentNear-term
2°C world, 21004°C world, 2100
WATER
Compounded Stress on Water Resources
FOOD
Reduced Crop Productivityand Livelihood and Food Security
Vector- and Water-Borne Diseases
A global perspective on risks
Based on WGII Box SPM 1 Figure 1
Based on WGII Box SPM 1 Figure 1
Small-scale, unique, nonmarket
Based on WGII Box SPM 1 Figure 1
Extremes
Based on WGII Box SPM 1 Figure 1
Unfairness of impacts• Uneveness spatially and temporally
• Challenges of resolution
Based on WGII Box SPM 1 Figure 1
An aggregate view• Next generation of economic estimates?
• Next generation of non-economic estimates?
Based on WGII Box SPM 1 Figure 1
Abrupt and irreversible changes
• Long timeframes, large uncertainties
Based on WGII Box SPM 1 Figure 1
EFFECTIVE CLIMATE CHANGE RESPONSESA MORE VIBRANT WORLD
SOCIOECONOMICPROCESSES
SocioeconomicPathways
Adaptation and Mitigation
Actions
Governance
CLIMATE
NaturalVariability
AnthropogenicClimate Change
RISKHazards
Exposure
Vulnerability
IMPACTS
EMISSIONSand Land-use Change
AnthropogenicClimate Change
AnthropogenicClimate Change
• Mitigation
Vulnerability
Exposure
Vulnerability & Exposure• Vulnerability & exposure reduction• Low-regrets strategies & actions• Addressing multidimensional
inequalities
Risk
Risk• Risk assessment• Iterative risk management• Risk perception
SocioeconomicPathways
Socioeconomic pathways• Diverse values & objectives• Climate resilient pathways• Transformation
Adaptation andMitigation Actions
Adaptation & Interactionswith Mitigation
• Incremental & transformational adaptation
• Co-benefits, synergies, & trade-offs• Context-specific adaptation• Complementary actions
Governance
Governance• Decision- making under
uncertainty• Learning, monitoring, &
flexibility• Coordination across scales
CLIMATE CHANGE
REDUCING ANDMANAGING RISKS
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