Health at the livestock‐policy interface

Asian LivestockChallenges, Opportunities 

and the Response

August 16‐17, 2012Orchid Sheraton, Bangkok

Health at the livestock‐policy interface

Jimmy SmithDirector General

International Livestock Research Institute

August 16‐17, 2012Orchid Sheraton, Bangkok

OUTLINE

Global trends in meat and milkLivestock and their keepersMain drivers of demand and supply

Livestock and the “3 healths”Human health & nutritionAnimal healthEcosystem health

Some prescriptions and policy advice

ILRI

700 staff54% from developing countriesmore than 30 scientific disciplines 2012 budget USD 60 million ILRI works with a range of research & development partnersacross 7 CGIAR research programs

•a member of the CGIAR Consortium which conducts livestock, food and environmental research

to help alleviate poverty and increase food security, while protecting the natural resource base.

Mali

Nigeria

Mozambique

Kenya

Ethiopia

India

China

Laos

Vietnam

Thailand

Outline

• Global trends in meat and milk– Livestock and their keepers– Main drivers of demand and supply

Livestock in developing countries

Density of poor livestock keepers

70% of the world’s livestock (18.5 billion head) are in DCs

• 15 billion poultry: (70% in Asia)• 1.6 billion shoats: (44% in Asia)• 1.2 billion bovines: (49% in Asia)• 0.6 billion pigs: (84% in Asia)

Faostat, 2012

Livestock keepers in developing countries

Density of poor livestock keepers

One billion people earning <$2 a day depend on livestock70% of the rural and 25% of the urban poor depend on livestock

600 million in south Asia300 million in sub Saharan Africa

ILRI, 2012

0 or no data

Development stage

%agric in GDP

%_Livestock in agric GDP

Demand for livestock products

Smallholder roles

Traditional agricultural societies

30‐50 15‐45 Rural and urban poor –small quantities

Smallholders competitive; informal markets

Transformingsocieties

15‐25 18‐50 Increased quantity demanded

Urbanized societies

6‐9 30‐50 Quantity but especially quality demands

Complex value chains; vertical coordination;smallholders not competitive unless where labour and inputs benefit

8

Smallholders have advantages – but not 

everywhere

Role of poor livestock‐keepers as agriculture transitions from traditional to urbanized

Structure of poultry sector in Cambodia, Vietnam and Thailand

But smallholder systems can persist even when intensive systems take off

CambodiaGDP $2,850Ag GDP 39%

VietnamGDP $3,005Ag GDP 21%

ThailandGDP $8,000Ag GDP 11%

Adapted from Otte et al., 2008

Into the future: demand driven revolution

Rosegrant et al. 2009

The 4 billion people who live on less than $10 a day (primarily in developing countries), represent a food market of about US$ 2.9 trillion per year.(Hammond et al 2007).

Consumption of meat and milk in developing countries is forecast to increase faster than that for any crop product(IAASTD 2007).

Global Meat Trends 1990-2009

Production Trade

Outline

•Livestock and the “3 healths”– Human health & nutrition– Animal health– Ecosystem health

Health of people, livestock and ecosystems are interdependent

Human healthHuman health

CulturesSocietiesEconomiesInstitutions

Agroecosystem health

Wildlifehealth

EcoHealthONE HEALTH

Adapted from EstherSchelling, STI

Livestockhealth

Health One a: Livestock and nutrition

Across a range of developing countries, livestock contribute 6-

36% of protein and 2-12% of calories (Nzuma & Randolph,

2008)

Livestock provide food for at least 830 million food insecure

people (Gerber et al, 2007)

Fish account for half the animal protein for the 400 million

poorest people in Africa and South Asia (FAO, 2009).

Small amounts of animal source foods have large benefits on

child growth, cognition & pregnancy outcomes (Neumann et al,

2003)

A small number of countries bear most of the burden of

malnutrition

One billion people are hungry but 2 billion are over-nourished:

Health One b: Livestock and human health

• 60% of human diseases shared with animals (Taylor et al, Woolhose

et al)

• 75% of emerging diseases are zoonotic (Jones et al,)

• 25% of the human infectious disease burden in least developed

countries is zoonotic (12%) or recently emerged (13%) from animals

(Grace et al,)

• The top 13 zoonoses are responsible for at least 2.4 billion cases of

illness and 2.2 million human deaths each year (ILRI, 2012)

• Emerging zoonotic diseases associated with intensive systems with

hotspots in western US and western Europe (ILRI, 2012)

• High burden of neglected zoonotic diseases associated with poor

livestock keepers with hotspots in India, Nigeria and Ethiopia (ILRI,

2012)

Health two: livestock health

• Transboundary disease e.g. PPR, CSF, ND, FMD– Most are controlled in developed countries: avoidable losses– Massive under-reporting in poor countries: estimated 99.8% of

notifiable disease cases are not reported (ILRI 2012)• Endemic disease e.g. parasites, viral diarrhoea and respiratory

disease, reproductive disease, lameness, mastitis– Parasitic diseases are mainly a problem of smallholder systems,

production diseases of intensive systems– Some estimate more costly than TAD (BMGF, 2012)

• Emerging disease (most are TAD) e.g. HPAI, PRRS, BT in Europe– Exotic diseases are at home somewhere in the globe: many in

Africa – As we speak, ASF in 2 European countries. Ebola outbreak E

Africa– Cost $80 billion between 1997-2009 (World Bank 2012)

Annual losses from selected diseases –Africa and South Asia

Estimates from BMGF

Some more recent estimates of animal disease costs & losses

Health Three: Agro-ecosystem health

• Livestock a source of green house gases

• Livestock feed competes with staple crops and

biofuel and other uses of water

• Livestock a source of disease spillover to wildlife

• But an important source of organic matter for soil

fertility

• Permanent pastures potentially important for carbon

sequestration

• Production efficiency key to reducing C footprints

Additional food needed1 billion tonnes of additional cereal grains to 

2050 to meet food and feed demands (IAASTD 2009)

Additional grains1048 million tonnes

more to 2050

Humanconsumption

458 million MT

Livestock430 million MT

Monogastrics mostly

Biofuels160 million MT

Production efficiency – developed countries

23Capper et al., 2009

Feed, breed, health =4 fold milk increase

Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops to 2050

Climate changeWhat will happen to feed resources?

diseases? productivity?

Courtesy of Andy Jarvis

Outline

• Prescription: Sustainable intensification

Sustainable intensification: prescriptions for human health

Manage disease at the animal

source not the human victim

Invest in One Health systems for

zoonoses prevention and control

Promote risk-based and incentive-

based food safety system

Sustainable intensification: prescriptions for animal health

Support smallholder systems to improve

production and productivity

Animal health services Innovation, technology,

multiple stakeholders

A whole-value-chain-development approachConsumers

Value chain development team + research partners

Major intervention with development partners

Sustainable intensification: prescriptions for ecosystem health

Managing externalities

Improvements in ruminant production – large

production gaps for ruminants in developing world

Reduced livestock-induced deforestation

Manure management (feed additives, methane

production, regulations for manure disposal)

Livestock systems in PES –including carbon credits

Key Advice to Policy-Makers• Surveillance: “Re-incentivise disease

reporting”

• Resource allocation: “Base allocation on Multiple Burden Approach”

• Delivery: “Health is too important to leave to doctors”

• Cross-cutting: “Support innovations at all levels”

Conclusion

•Acknowledgements: ILRI research included in this presentation was funded by a number of donors

•Contributors: Delia Grace, Mario Herrero, Derek Baker, Tom Randolph, Shirley Tarawali, Jeff Gilbert and others

The big picture

• Feeding the worldis possible

• Sustaining the natural resource base is possible

• Reducing absolute poverty is possible

• Improving the health of people, animals and the planet is possible