The European Forest and Agricultural The European Forest and Agricultural The European Forest and Agricultural The European Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model Sector Optimization Model Uwe A. Schneider (Land Use Economics) Contributors Christine Schleupner (Wetland Geography) Christine Schleupner (Wetland Geography) Kerstin Jantke (Wetland Biology) Erwin Schmid (Crop Simulation) C Ivie Ramos (Bioenergy Options) C. Ivie Ramos (Bioenergy Options) FOREST SECTOR MODELING STATE-OF-THE-ART AND FUTURE CHALLENGES IN AN EXPANDING GLOBAL MARKETPLACE November 17-20, 2008 Seattle, Washington, USA
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The European Forest and AgriculturalThe European Forest and AgriculturalThe European Forest and Agricultural The European Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization ModelSector Optimization Model
P ti l E ilib i B tt U M d lPartial Equilibrium, Bottom-Up Model Maximizes sum of consumer and producer surplusConstrained by resource endowments, ytechnologies, policiesSpatially explicit, discrete dynamicSpatially explicit, discrete dynamicIntegrates environmental effectsP d i GAMS S l d LPProgrammed in GAMS, Solved as LP
Alcedo atthis x xAnser erythropus x x xAquila clanga / x / / /Aquila chrysaetos / /A dArdea purpurea purpurea x x xArdeola ralloides x xAsio flammeus / /Aythya nyroca x xBotaurus stellaris stellaris xChlidonias hybridus / xyChlidonias niger x xCiconia ciconia x x xCiconia nigra x x x /Crex crex / x /Fulica cristata x xGavia arctica xGelochelidon nilotica x x /Glareola pranticola x xGrus grus / / / / /Haliaeetus albicilla x x xHoplopterus spinosus x x xHoplopterus spinosus x x xIxobrychus minutus x x xMilvus migrans x x /Nycticorax nycticorax x x xOxyura leucocephala xPandion haliaetus / x /
Mi d I t P iMi d I t P iMixed Integer ProgrammingMixed Integer Programming
Markov ProcessMarkov ProcessMarkov ProcessMarkov Process
,ot ,u tX L≤∑
( ),o
,o,u
u
X X
∑
∑ ∑( )t ,u,o u,o,o t 1,u,ou u,o
X X −= ρ ⋅∑ ∑ % %%,
Indexes: t = time, u = management, o,ố = soil carbon state
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35
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Wheat-Lucerne 3/320cm
)
30
35
Wheat Lucerne 6/3n (tC
/ha/
2
20
25Wheat-Lucerne 6/3
c C
arbo
n
15 No-till wheat-fallow
il O
rgan
i
5
10 Tilled wheat-fallowSoi
0 10 20 30 40 50Time (years)
4520
cm)
35
40
Wheat-Lucerne 3/3
n (tC
/ha/
2
30
35 Wheat Lucerne 3/3
Wheat-Lucerne 6/3
c C
arbo
n
20
25Wheat Lucerne 6/3
l Org
anic
15
20
No-till wheat-fallow
Soil
5
10 Tilled wheat-fallow
0 10 20 30 40 50Time (years)
Extensions?Extensions?Extensions?Extensions?
Markov chains are applicable to relatively independent environmental qualities (treeindependent environmental qualities (tree density, humus, salt, contamination)
Method not suitable for complex environmental properties (climate)environmental properties (climate)
ConclusionsConclusionsConclusionsConclusions
Today’s solution – tomorrow’s problem?Today s solution tomorrow s problem?EUFASOM aims at integrated assessments of food climate biodiversityassessments of food, climate, biodiversity, and water issues from land useC ti d d l i t tiComputing power and model integration offer new opportunities – what about
lid ti ?validation?
ReferencesReferencesReferencesReferencesSchneider, U.A. “Soil organic carbon changes in dynamic land use decision models” Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment 119 (2007) 359 367models Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 119 (2007) 359–367Cowie, A., U.A. Schneider and L. Montanarella (2007). Potential synergiesbetween existing multilateral environmental agreements in the implementation ofLand Use, Land Use Change and Forestry activities. Environmental Science &Policy 10(4):335-352Policy 10(4):335-352Schneider U.A., J. Balkovic, S. De Cara, O. Franklin, S. Fritz, P. Havlik, I. Huck, K. Jantke, A.M.I. Kallio, F. Kraxner, A. Moiseyev, M. Obersteiner, C.I. Ramos, C. Schleupner, E. Schmid, D. Schwab, R. Skalsky (2008), “The European Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model EUFASOM” FNU 156 HamburgAgricultural Sector Optimization Model – EUFASOM , FNU-156, Hamburg University and Centre for Marine and Atmospheric Science, Hamburg.Schleupner, C. Estimation of Spatial Wetland Distribution Potentials in Europe. FNU-135. 2007. Hamburg, Hamburg University and Centre for Marine and Atmospheric ScienceAtmospheric Science.