Inclusion of the Inclusion of the agricultural sector in agricultural sector in greenhouse gas mitigation greenhouse gas mitigation policies policies Problems and potential Problems and potential instruments instruments Uwe A. Schneider Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change KlimaCampus, Hamburg University Public Trade Policy Research and Analysis Symposium Climate Change in World Agriculture: Mitigation, Adaptation, Trade and Food Security June 27 - 29, 2010 Stuttgart-Hohenheim, Germany ibutions from Bruce McCarl, Erwin Schmid, Christine Schleupner, and
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Uwe A. Schneider Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change KlimaCampus, Hamburg University
Inclusion of the agricultural sector in greenhouse gas mitigation policies Problems and potential instruments. Uwe A. Schneider Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change KlimaCampus, Hamburg University. Contributions from Bruce McCarl, Erwin Schmid, Christine Schleupner, and others. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Inclusion of the agricultural sector in Inclusion of the agricultural sector in greenhouse gas mitigation policiesgreenhouse gas mitigation policies
Problems and potential instrumentsProblems and potential instruments
Uwe A. Schneider
Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change
KlimaCampus, Hamburg University
Public Trade Policy Research and Analysis Symposium Climate Change in World Agriculture: Mitigation, Adaptation, Trade and Food Security June 27 - 29, 2010 Stuttgart-Hohenheim, Germany
Contributions from Bruce McCarl, Erwin Schmid, Christine Schleupner, and others
Land and forest stateLand and forest state Livestock systemsLivestock systems Energy input / product outputEnergy input / product output Non-C from fertilizerNon-C from fertilizer
Emission sinksEmission sinks Biomass and soil organic carbonBiomass and soil organic carbon Geo-engineering (Terra preta)Geo-engineering (Terra preta)
Emission offsets in other sectorsEmission offsets in other sectors Bioenergy, BiomaterialBioenergy, Biomaterial Production factors (Fertilizer)Production factors (Fertilizer)
Optimal mitigation actions differ across space Optimal mitigation actions differ across space
and timeand time
Diverse mitigation costsDiverse mitigation costs
Complexity of Agricultural Mitigation Complexity of Agricultural Mitigation
Interdependencies due to resource scarcity Interdependencies due to resource scarcity andand competition competition
Emission leakage due to commodity tradeEmission leakage due to commodity trade
Multiple market, environmental, and social Multiple market, environmental, and social impacts impacts
Interdependencies with other societal Interdependencies with other societal objectives (food, water, biodiversity)objectives (food, water, biodiversity)
EU27 Wetland Economic Potentials (free Trade with NonEU27)
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
EU
27 w
etla
nd a
rea
in m
illio
n H
a
Annual EU27 wetland subsidy in Euro/Ha
Technical Potential
Deforestation < 90%, No Biomass
Deforestation < 90%, 400 Mt Biomass
Deforestation < 10%, No Biomass
Deforestation < 10%, 400 Mt Biomass
Schleupner & Schneider 2010
EU27 Wetland Economic Potentials (fixed Trade with NonEU27)
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
EU
27 w
etla
nd a
rea
in m
illio
n H
a
Annual EU27 wetland subsidy in Euro/Ha
Technical Potential
Deforestation < 90%, No Biomass
Deforestation < 90%, 400 Mt Biomass
Deforestation < 10%, No Biomass
Deforestation < 10%, 400 Mt Biomass
Schleupner & Schneider 2010
Food Price and Wetlands in EU27 (free Trade with NonEU27)
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
EU
27 f
ood
pric
e (B
ase=
100%
)
Annual Wetland Subsidy in Euro/Ha
Deforestation < 10%, 400 Mt Biomass
Deforestation < 10%, No Biomass
Deforestation < 90%, 400 Mt Biomass
Deforestation < 90%, No Biomass
Schleupner & Schneider 2010
Food Price and Wetlands in EU27 (fixed Trade with NonEU27)
Complexity of Agricultural Mitigation Complexity of Agricultural Mitigation
Substantial differences between economic Substantial differences between economic and technical (engineering / geographic) and technical (engineering / geographic) assessmentsassessments
Different policy proposals between Different policy proposals between economists and engineers economists and engineers
16 Concerns Strict set of sustainability criteria for energy crop production
Food supply Energy crop production is not allowed to endanger the supply of food
Deforestation Energy crop production is not allowed to result in deforestation
Child labor Child labor is not allowed
Wages Comparable fair wages must be paid to avoid poverty
Employment Energy crop production must contribute to overall employment
Education Education must be provided for the workers’ children by the energy crop producer
Health care Health care services must be provided for all workers’ family members by the energy crop producer.
Soil erosion Soil erosion rates are not allowed to increase compared to conventional agricultural land use and must be decreased to the natural soil regeneration capacity
Depletion of fresh water resources Depletion of fresh water resources is not allowed
Nutrient losses and soil nutrient depletion
Soil nutrient depletion and nutrient leaching must be prevented as far as reasonably is achievable
Pollution from chemicals
The use of certain types of agro-chemicals is forbidden and pollution from agro-chemicals must be prevented as reasonable is achievable
Biodiversity Biodiversity must be protected Smeets and Faaij, 2010
Sustainable Bioenergy? Sustainable Bioenergy?
Does Does “Surplus land” “Surplus land” exist to avoid food and biodiversity exist to avoid food and biodiversity conflict?conflict?
What are the transaction costs for complicated rules?What are the transaction costs for complicated rules?
Where is the global (benevolent) dictator to prevent Where is the global (benevolent) dictator to prevent leakage?leakage?
Economic alternative: 1) protect globally old growth Economic alternative: 1) protect globally old growth forests and nature reserves, 2) let markets regulate forests and nature reserves, 2) let markets regulate competition between food, timber, and energycompetition between food, timber, and energy
UncertaintyUncertainty
Inadequate observationsInadequate observations Uncertain baseline (soil and biomass carbon)Uncertain baseline (soil and biomass carbon)
Efficient internalization of agricultural Efficient internalization of agricultural mitigation is challengingmitigation is challenging
Integrated assessments needed which Integrated assessments needed which account for heterogeneity, complexity, account for heterogeneity, complexity, and uncertainty and uncertainty
Transaction cost and other externality Transaction cost and other externality impacts of policy instruments importantimpacts of policy instruments important
Conclusions Conclusions
Solve Ag mitigation jointly addressed with Solve Ag mitigation jointly addressed with other objectivesother objectives
Agricultural role for mitigation is a Agricultural role for mitigation is a dynamic processdynamic processAvoided deforestation earlyAvoided deforestation earlyOver time different policies and strategiesOver time different policies and strategiesTechnical progress (incl. monitoring Technical progress (incl. monitoring
technologies)technologies)
Conclusions Conclusions
Use market forces and governmental Use market forces and governmental power in optimal combinationpower in optimal combination
Let today’s solution not become tomorrow’s Let today’s solution not become tomorrow’s problemproblem
Referecnes Referecnes Lee, H.C., B.A. McCarl, U.A. Schneider, and C.C. Chen (2007). “Leakage and comparative Lee, H.C., B.A. McCarl, U.A. Schneider, and C.C. Chen (2007). “Leakage and comparative
advantage implications of agricultural participation in greenhouse gas emission mitigation.” advantage implications of agricultural participation in greenhouse gas emission mitigation.” Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global ChangeMitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 12(4):471-494 12(4):471-494 Available online. .
McCarl, B.A. and U.A. Schneider (2001). “Climate change - Greenhouse gas mitigation in US McCarl, B.A. and U.A. Schneider (2001). “Climate change - Greenhouse gas mitigation in US agriculture and forestry.” agriculture and forestry.” ScienceScience 294(5551):2481-2482 294(5551):2481-2482 Available online.
McCarl, B. A., B.C. Murray, and U. A. Schneider. "Influences of Permanence on the McCarl, B. A., B.C. Murray, and U. A. Schneider. "Influences of Permanence on the Comparative Value of Biological Sequestration versus Emissions Offsets." CARD Working Comparative Value of Biological Sequestration versus Emissions Offsets." CARD Working Paper 282. 2001. Paper 282. 2001. Download
Schneider, U.A., McCarl, B.A., and Schmid, E. (2007). “Agricultural sector analysis on Schneider, U.A., McCarl, B.A., and Schmid, E. (2007). “Agricultural sector analysis on greenhouse gas mitigation in US agriculture and forestry.” greenhouse gas mitigation in US agriculture and forestry.” Agricultural SystemsAgricultural Systems 94:128-140 94:128-140 Available online. .
Smeets E.M.W. and A.P.C. Faaij (2010). “The impact of sustainability criteria on the costs and Smeets E.M.W. and A.P.C. Faaij (2010). “The impact of sustainability criteria on the costs and potentials of bioenergy production - Applied for case studies in Brazil and Ukraine.” potentials of bioenergy production - Applied for case studies in Brazil and Ukraine.” Biomass Biomass and Bioenergyand Bioenergy 34(3):319-333 34(3):319-333 Available online
Schleupner, C. and U.A. Schneider (2010). "Effects of bioenergy policies and targets on Schleupner, C. and U.A. Schneider (2010). "Effects of bioenergy policies and targets on European wetland restoration options", submitted to European wetland restoration options", submitted to Environmental Science & PolicyEnvironmental Science & Policy..