The Role of Strategic Consulting in the Resources Industries of Australia and Indonesia My PhD Or : How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining Or : Using Scenario Planning To Improve The Integration Of Geological, Technical, Economic, Environmental, Geopolitical, And Socio - political Factors In Minerals Exploration Management And Strategy John Sykes 1234 1. Centre for Exploration Targeting, School of Earth Sciences, The University of Western Australia 2. Business School, The University of Western Australia 3. MinEx Consulting, Australia 4. Greenfields Research, United Kingdom 16 November 2017 School of Earth Sciences Postgraduate Symposium Image: Dr. Strangelove (A.V. Club )
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Scenario planning to improve exploration - Sykes - Nov 2017 - Centre for Exploration Targeting
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The Role of Strategic Consulting in the Resources Industries of Australia and Indonesia
My PhDOr: How I Learned To Stop
Worrying And Love Mining
Or: Using Scenario Planning To Improve The Integration
Of Geological, Technical, Economic, Environmental,
Geopolitical, And Socio-political Factors In Minerals
Exploration Management And Strategy
John Sykes1234
1. Centre for Exploration Targeting, School of Earth Sciences, The University of Western Australia
2. Business School, The University of Western Australia
Explorers, exploration teams, and exploration companies will require a broader skill set in the future including:
• a better philosophical understanding of the nature of exploration and discovery
• better understanding of the cognitive processes involved in exploration and discovery;
• developing strategies and capabilities to effectively enter emerging commodity markets;
• building a diverse exploration culture to bring in ideas from other industries and disciplines;
• switching from a focus on economic value to shared value;
• developing a stronger innovation and technology culture;
• encouraging creativity and ideation;
• linking short and long-term thinking;
• improving the image of exploration;
• monitoring local and global socio-political, economic and technological trends and
• measuring and understanding the potential impact of these trends;
• encouraging a collective approach to ‘big exploration’.
Perhaps with these capabilities we can resolve the ‘discovery constraint’ on the minerals industry.
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)Slide 32 of 35
Acknowledgements
Firstly, I would like to acknowledge the Noongar people, who remain the spiritual and cultural custodians of the land, upon which The University of Western
Australia is situated, and pay my respect to Elders both past and present.
I would like to acknowledge the support of my PhD supervision team: Allan Trench (CET, UWA), Mark Jessell (CET, UWA), Campbell McCuaig (BHP), and Nicolas Thebaud (CET,
UWA); as well as the financial support of a Centre for Exploration Targeting ‘Ad hoc’ scholarship and an Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship.
I would also like to thank the participants in the three CET “Future of Minerals Exploration” Scenarios Workshops: Jonathan Bell (CET, Curtin), Leila Ben Mcharek (Muslim Studies, UWA), Rob
deBruin (Diamond Indicator Minerals), Edoaldo Di Dio (Calibre Projects), Joe Dwyer (HiSeis), Mayara Fraeda (CET-UWA), Nick Franey (NFJ Consulting), Simon Gatehouse (BHP), Jeremie
Giraud (CET, UWA), Marcelo Godefroy Rodriguez (CET, UWA), Chris Gonzalez (CET, UWA), Isabel Granado (Information Systems, Curtin), Matt Greentree (Ausgold), David Groves (CET, UWA),
Mike Haederle (Rio Tinto), Mike Hannington (Metalicity), Nick Hayward (Teck), Amanda Hellberg (Law, UWA), Paul Hodkiewicz (Anglo American), Amy Imbergamo (Environmental Science,
UWA), Constanza Jara (CET, UWA), Caroline Johnson (CSIRO), Heta Lampinen (CET, UWA), Helen Langley (Law, UWA), John Libby (Digirock), Martin Lynch (Author of “Mining in World History”),
Occhipinti (CET, UWA), Ahmad Saleem (CET, UWA), Ian Satchwell (PerthUSAsia Centre), Robert Sills (Sills Strategic Materials), John Southalan (Law, UWA), David Stevenson (CET, UWA),
Narendran Subramaniam (Transmin), Siobhan Sullivan (Plant Biology, UWA), Daniel Sully (Teck), Janet Sutherland (Business, Curtin), Marcus Tomkinson (MMG), Marnie Tonkin
(Anthropology, UWA), Jan Tunjic (CET, UWA), Will Turner (Millenium Minerals), Stanislav Ulrich (AngloGold Ashanti), Jessica Volich (BHP), Wenchao Wan (Chemical Engineering, UWA), Peter
Williams (HiSeis), Marcus Willson (CSA Global) and Afira Zulkifli Tahmali (Environmental Science, UWA).
I would also like to thank Steve Beresford (Independence Group), Jon Hronsky (Western Mining Services), Robbie Rowe (NextGen Geological), Richard Schodde (MinEx Consulting), John Vann (Anglo American) and
the members of #explorationtalk for the continued support, guidance, and championing of this research.
This work has also benefitted from the contributions of many other people who have co-authored papers, provided input, or contributed in some other way, whether they knew it or not. These include David Abraham (TREM, IAGS), Saleem Ali
(University of Delaware), Tim Andrews (Western Power), Lucy Ash (Independent Geologist), Miles Ashton (Baron Property Group), Alex Atkins (Alex Atkins Associates), Roger Bade (Whitman Howard), Anthony Barich (Aspermont), Laurent
Fields), Jess Currell (EY), Sam Davies (CET, UWA), Aaron Dixon (EY), Nick Gardiner (CET, Curtin), Chris Gemell (Wood Mackenzie), Mike Gershon (Gershon Learning), Pietro Guj (CET, Curtin), Nancy Hanna (CSIRO), Jess Harman (BHP), Matt
Horgan (Alcoa), Simon Jowitt (University of Nevada, Las Vegas), Matthew Kanakis (KPMG), Peter Kettle (ITRI), Cho Khong (Shell), Cui Lin (ITRI), Paul Miller (Vedanta), Gavin Mudd (RMIT University), Tom Mulqueen (ITRI), Janusz Olbromski
(Brickworks), Ian Radisich (South32), Rafael Ramirez (University of Oxford), Laurence Robb (University of Oxford), Paul Robinson (CRU), Cynthia Selin (Arizona State University), Bindi Shah (MBA, UWA), Natalie Staffurth (Terravision
Exploration), Mark Tyrer (Imperial College), Kees van der Heijden (University of Oxford), Jess Volich (BHP), Angela Wilkinson (World Energy Council), and Josh Wright (Rowton Consolidated).
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)Slide 33 of 35
Key References
• Sykes, J.P., 2014, Influencing exploration choices in copper at a strategic level (The Hollywood Edition), Centre for Exploration Targeting Members’ Day,
December, Perth (WA).
• Sykes, J.P., & Trench, A., 2014, Chapter 14: Finding the copper mine of the 21st century: Conceptual exploration targeting for hypothetical copper
reserves, in Special Publication Number 18: Building exploration capability for the 21st century, (eds., K.D. Kelley & H.C. Golden), Society of Economic
Geologists: Littleton (CO), 273-300.
• Sykes, J.P., Wright, J.P., & Trench, A., 2016, Discovery, supply and demand: From Metals of Antiquity to critical metals, Applied Earth Science, 125, 1, 3-
20.
• Sykes, J.P., & Trench, A., 2016, Using Scenarios to Investigate the Long-term Future of Copper Mining and Guide Exploration Targeting Strategies,
International Mine Management Conference, Brisbane (QLD), 22-24 August.
• Sykes, J.P., & Trench, A., 2017, The Impact of the Renewable Energy Transition on Battery and Strategic Metal Markets [presentation], AIG Battery &
• Sykes, J.P., Trench, A., McCuaig, T.C., Craske, T., Dwyer, J., Subramaniam, N., Sullivan, S.T.M., & Turner, W., 2016, Transforming the Future of Minerals
Exploration, AusIMM New Zealand Branch Conference, Wellington, 4-6 September, 407-418.
• Sykes, J.P., Trench, A., McCuaig, T.C., & Jessell, M., 2017, Charles Dickens on the (potentially) changing role of globalisation and sustainability in the
long-term future of mining and exploration, Tenth International Mining Geology Conference, Hobart (TAS), 20-22 September, 239-256.
• Sykes, J.P., Trench, A., & McCuaig, T.C., 2017, The Future(s) of Minerals Exploration [poster], TARGET Conference, Perth (WA), 19-21 April.
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)Slide 34 of 35
Other References
• Erdmann, D., Sichel, B., & Yeung, L., 2015, Overcoming Obstacles to Effective Scenario Planning, McKinsey Quarterly, June, 1-6.
• Franks, D.M., Davis, R., Bebbington, A.J., Ali, S.H., Kemp, D., & Scurrah, M., 2014, Conflict Translates Environmental and Social
Risk into Business Costs, PNAS, 111, 21, 7576-7581.
• Fukuyama, F., 1992, The End of History and the Last Man, Penguin Books: London.
• Humphreys, D., 2010, The Great Metals Boom: A Retrospective, Resources Policy, 35, 1-13.
• Markowitz, H., 1952, Portfolio Selection, The Journal of Finance, 7, 1, 77-91.
• Ramirez, R., & Wilkinson, A., 2016, Strategic Reframing: The Oxford Scenario Planning Approach, Oxford University Press: Oxford.
• Rigby, D., & Bilodeau, B., 2007, A Growing Focus on Preparedness, Harvard Business Review, 85, 7/8, 21-22.
• Silver, N., 2012, The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction, Penguin Books: London.
• Taleb, N.N., 2007, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Allen Lane: London.
• Tetlock, P.E., 2005, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, Princeton University Press: Princeton (NJ).
• Tetlock, P.E., & Gardner, D., 2015, Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction, Random House Books: London.
• Tilton, J.E., & Guzman, J.I., 2016, Mineral Economics and Policy, Routledge: Abingdon (UK).
• Wack, P., 1985, Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids, Harvard Business Review, 63, 6, 139-150.
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)Slide 35 of 35