SAARC ENERGY CENTRE Knowledge Sharing Workshop “Modern Techniques including Renewable Energy Auctions for Economizing Renewable Energy Tariff” Energy production & economics of Renewable Energy technologies 1 SAARC Knowledge Sharing Workshop on “Modern Techniques including Renewable Energy Auctions for Economizing Renewable Energy Tariff” 9th-10th May, 2018 | Galadari Hotel, Colombo, Sri Lanka Tommaso Morbiato a a Windcity srl, Rovereto, Italy
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SAARC ENERGY CENTREKnowledge Sharing Workshop “Modern Techniques including Renewable Energy Auctions for Economizing Renewable Energy Tariff”
Energy production & economics of Renewable Energy technologies
1
SAARC Knowledge Sharing Workshop on “Modern Techniques including Renewable Energy Auctions for Economizing Renewable Energy Tariff”
9th-10th May, 2018 | Galadari Hotel, Colombo, Sri Lanka
Tommaso Morbiatoa
a Windcity srl, Rovereto, Italy
SAARC ENERGY CENTREKnowledge Sharing Workshop “Modern Techniques including Renewable Energy Auctions for Economizing Renewable Energy Tariff”
Today’s presentation contents:
Key Performance Indicators useful for policy makers: Levelised Cost Of Electricity Capacity factor Power density Payback time Market design and integration for high share of RE Emerging market mechanisms, EaaS, distributed generation RE & variability of the natural source
2
SAARC ENERGY CENTREKnowledge Sharing Workshop “Modern Techniques including Renewable Energy Auctions for Economizing Renewable Energy Tariff”
Guiding UN SDGs: #7 #8 #9 #11 #12 #13 #14 #15
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SAARC ENERGY CENTREKnowledge Sharing Workshop “Modern Techniques including Renewable Energy Auctions for Economizing Renewable Energy Tariff”
Key Performance Indicators useful for policy makers
Need for matching Energy Production & PoliciesEconomics, relevant KPIs :
Levelised Cost of Electricity: performance on alifetime base
Capacity Factor: a measure of energyefficiency consistent with the marketplace
Power Density: monitoring land use forsustainability
Payback time: the fair marketplace4
SAARC ENERGY CENTREKnowledge Sharing Workshop “Modern Techniques including Renewable Energy Auctions for Economizing Renewable Energy Tariff”
Renewable power generation costs at 2010-2017: the LCOE Levelised Cost of Electricity, of a given technology, isthe ratio of lifetime costs to lifetime electricitygeneration, both discounted with same WACC (10%)
5
SAARC ENERGY CENTREKnowledge Sharing Workshop “Modern Techniques including Renewable Energy Auctions for Economizing Renewable Energy Tariff”
LCOE and auction prices datasets – Outlook to 2020 comparing LCOE and auction prices for single projectsmust be done with caution volumes of data & consistent trends between the 2datasets provide some confidence in the overall trend
6
SAARC ENERGY CENTREKnowledge Sharing Workshop “Modern Techniques including Renewable Energy Auctions for Economizing Renewable Energy Tariff”
Analyzing LCOE for promising innovative RE technologies “Blue growth” of non-conventional hydropower: the hydrokinetic energy
7
21 2 20,5gh P vρ ρ= +
Conventional hydropower
Naturalresource
Infrastucturebefore converter
Converterefficiency
21 10,5 v ghρ ρ+
Non conventional hydro
Natural resource
WEClow efficiency &
advanced (Kaplan, hydro-air,…)
Encased flow PTOs Open flow
Point absorber, Attenuator, Oscillating
surge , column,…
Betz limit 0,593
HydrokineticHKT
efficiency80%
(wind-techtransfer)
SAARC ENERGY CENTREKnowledge Sharing Workshop “Modern Techniques including Renewable Energy Auctions for Economizing Renewable Energy Tariff”
Analyzing LCOE for promising innovative RE technologies hydrokinetic energy: open-flow solutions
8
Axial rotor Cross-axis rotor
SAARC ENERGY CENTREKnowledge Sharing Workshop “Modern Techniques including Renewable Energy Auctions for Economizing Renewable Energy Tariff” 9
Analyzing LCOE for promising innovative RE technologies
SAARC ENERGY CENTREKnowledge Sharing Workshop “Modern Techniques including Renewable Energy Auctions for Economizing Renewable Energy Tariff”
is the ratio between energy records and the rated power times the period of record
often driven by a mix of technology (efficiency, availability), renewable resources (variability) and economic factors (DNOregulations, …)
Capacity factor
10
0
,max
( )T
el
el
P t dtCF
P T=
⋅
∫
SAARC ENERGY CENTREKnowledge Sharing Workshop “Modern Techniques including Renewable Energy Auctions for Economizing Renewable Energy Tariff”
Worldwide solar energy market 2015: 225.000 MW installed power capacity Total energy harvested 2015: 255.000 GWh255.000.000/225.000/24/365 = 0,13 or 1130 hours
Worldwide wind energy market 2015: 416.000 MW installed power capacity Total energy harvested 2015: 826.000 GWh826.000.000/416.000/24/365 = 0,23 or 1986 hours
Simple capacity factor figures
11
SAARC ENERGY CENTREKnowledge Sharing Workshop “Modern Techniques including Renewable Energy Auctions for Economizing Renewable Energy Tariff” 12
SAARC ENERGY CENTREKnowledge Sharing Workshop “Modern Techniques including Renewable Energy Auctions for Economizing Renewable Energy Tariff” 13
SAARC ENERGY CENTREKnowledge Sharing Workshop “Modern Techniques including Renewable Energy Auctions for Economizing Renewable Energy Tariff”
Power density: monitoring land use for sustainability Power density per square meter is the sustainabilityrationale of a distributed generation project, as aneffective land use is of primary importance for a smartcity. While the current standard can be a solar panel with10-15 m2 per kW i.e. 0,07 kW/ m2, emerging innovative RE technologies such as open-flow hydrokinetic turbines offer less than 0,2 m2 perkW i.e. 5 kW/ m2
Taking yet into account inter-modular distances forboth techs, R&D in hydrokinetic applications is worthintroducing a RE technology >70 times less landconsuming than current solar energy
14
SAARC ENERGY CENTREKnowledge Sharing Workshop “Modern Techniques including Renewable Energy Auctions for Economizing Renewable Energy Tariff”
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2 2.25 2.5 2.75
ener
gy p
rodu
cibi
lity
(MW
h pe
r yea
r)
avg. water flow (meters per sec)
100.000 €
Energy payback EU 2017 avg. customer 220 € per MWhHousehold level <5MWh per year
6 years4 years2 years
COGS margin 200%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2 2.25 2.5 2.75
ener
gy p
rodu
cibi
lity
(MW
h pe
r yea
r)
avg. water flow (meters per sec)
100.000 €
Energy payback EU 2017 avg. customer 121 € per MWhNon-Household level >500MWh per year
6 years4 years2 years
COGS margin 200%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2 2.25 2.5 2.75
ener
gy p
rodu
cibi
lity
(MW
h pe
r yea
r)
avg. water flow (meters per sec)
100.000 €
Energy payback EU 2017 avg. customer 220 € per MWhHousehold level <5 MWh per year
6 years4 years2 years
COGS margin 300%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2 2.25 2.5 2.75
ener
gy p
rodu
cibi
lity
(MW
h pe
r yea
r)
avg. water flow (meters per sec)
100.000 €
Energy payback EU 2017 avg. customer 121 € per MWhNon-Household level >500MWh per year
6 years4 years2 years
COGS margin 300%
Payback time: the fair marketplace
exam
ple
ofa
25 k
W
hydr
okin
etic
turb
ine
proj
ect:
the
robu
stne
ssof
the
busi
ness
pla
nis
test
edw
ithth
e av
g. E
U en
ergy
pric
e,
no F
IT o
r oth
erRE
ince
ntiv
e
15
SAARC ENERGY CENTREKnowledge Sharing Workshop “Modern Techniques including Renewable Energy Auctions for Economizing Renewable Energy Tariff”
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75 2 2.25 2.5 2.75
ener
gy p
rodu
cibi
lity
(MW
h pe
r yea
r)
avg. water flow (meters per sec)
100.000 €
Energy payback EU 2017 avg. customer 220 € per MWhHousehold level <5MWh per year
6 years4 years2 years
COGS margin 200%
Payback time: the fair marketplace
16
SAARC ENERGY CENTREKnowledge Sharing Workshop “Modern Techniques including Renewable Energy Auctions for Economizing Renewable Energy Tariff” 17
Price of solar power drops aftertech maturity, but: Capacity factor: on average 50% of wind, strongly affected byvariability Power density: among the lowest Payback-time: uncertain
SAARC ENERGY CENTREKnowledge Sharing Workshop “Modern Techniques including Renewable Energy Auctions for Economizing Renewable Energy Tariff”
Market integration of RE promotion mechanisms Capacity-based mechanisms. There is no energy oravailability contract involved, they avoid marketdistorsions, but risk financing low-quality projects.Features affecting market compatibility: Support payment, amount and timing Choice of reference plant (benchmark) Frequency of support payment Minimum performance requirements
Production-based mechanisms. Tying payment toperformance, deliver the best system design andefficiency, although exposed to market distorsions.Features affecting market compatibility: Amount of supported production Type of support (market price link/no-link/separate)
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SAARC ENERGY CENTREKnowledge Sharing Workshop “Modern Techniques including Renewable Energy Auctions for Economizing Renewable Energy Tariff”
Market integration of RE - emerging mechanisms
With cost reduction and new RE technologies, newmechanisms emerge where support has minor role Prosumers mechanisms. Electricity customers who bothconsume & produce. Features affecting market compatibility: Production can net consumption/reduce consumptiontariff Bundle volumetric tariffs: avoid non-energy costs (taxes,charges, etc.) Bank production credits/ Negative consumption at laterdate Metering technologies: from smart-meters to upcomingpeer-to-peer energy exchange in blockchain powered webplatforms for decentralized local economies
Energy-as-a-Service frontier. Supergrid.eu (Bruxelles)foresees a “flat rate” energy market in the near future
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SAARC ENERGY CENTREKnowledge Sharing Workshop “Modern Techniques including Renewable Energy Auctions for Economizing Renewable Energy Tariff” 20
Distributed generation: dealing with the natural resource
SAARC ENERGY CENTREKnowledge Sharing Workshop “Modern Techniques including Renewable Energy Auctions for Economizing Renewable Energy Tariff” 21
Small Wind Tech (SWT) rating is: 0,1-100 kWTotal Wind Market 416 GW
SWT market 830 MW = 0,2 % Total Wind…with a potential of distributed generation
830.330 kW / 944.850 units = 880 W mean rating per unit
SAARC ENERGY CENTREKnowledge Sharing Workshop “Modern Techniques including Renewable Energy Auctions for Economizing Renewable Energy Tariff”
Urban to rural wind capacity factors: the effect ofvariable flows
Distance from city centre [km]
Capa
city
fact
orur
ban/
rura
l
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SAARC ENERGY CENTREKnowledge Sharing Workshop “Modern Techniques including Renewable Energy Auctions for Economizing Renewable Energy Tariff”
Nature & Machine: the challenge of adapting to Change
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SAARC ENERGY CENTREKnowledge Sharing Workshop “Modern Techniques including Renewable Energy Auctions for Economizing Renewable Energy Tariff”
Knowledge Transition To Built Environment Wind Tech
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Working Group 2 Expertises
Need Analysis Value Proposition
Steel structures applications to Wind Tech
Power and Energy Production examination
Structural design for small wind turbine integration in the building
Electrical power engineering
Analysis of Technology Readiness Level for built environment
Turbine design for variable winds in Urban Boundary Layer
Fluid Mechanics Integration at Building scale for Wind Energy Projects
Electrical connection solutions for smart-grids
Structural dynamics Urban context integration and Energy Performance of Building Directive 31/2010
Wind Engineering
SAARC ENERGY CENTREKnowledge Sharing Workshop “Modern Techniques including Renewable Energy Auctions for Economizing Renewable Energy Tariff”
Variable water flows in any coastal area
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SAARC ENERGY CENTREKnowledge Sharing Workshop “Modern Techniques including Renewable Energy Auctions for Economizing Renewable Energy Tariff”
Variable water flows in any coastal area
Hydraulic measurements on scale model
Time-variable flows.
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SAARC ENERGY CENTREKnowledge Sharing Workshop “Modern Techniques including Renewable Energy Auctions for Economizing Renewable Energy Tariff” 27
Impact of distributed generation on voltage controlstrategies DNOs increasingly need to monitor local voltage levelsand dynamically adjust substation depending on actualrather than expected network conditions Evolve from static passive solutions to space and time-dependant control strategies
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