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Russia's Rouble Rollercoaster Ride

Apr 15, 2017

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Page 1: Russia's Rouble Rollercoaster Ride

><BFSU | IBS | INTERNATIONAL FINANCE | SPRING 2016

RUSSIA'S ROUBLE ROLLERCOASTER RIDEHUN SEO | KORNIETSKAYA ANASTASIA

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Page 2: Russia's Rouble Rollercoaster Ride

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Some countries prosper when oil prices decline and suffer economically when they rise, while the opposite is true for others.

Countries whose economies benefit when the price of oil is low tend to be net importers of oil, meaning they import more than they export.

Low prices are preferred when doing more buying than selling.

BFSU | IBS | INTERNATIONAL FINANCE | SPRING 2016

DECLINE OF OIL PRICES

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Page 3: Russia's Rouble Rollercoaster Ride

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Some countries prosper when oil prices decline and suffer economically when they rise, while the opposite is true for others.

Countries whose economies benefit when the price of oil is low tend to be net importers of oil, meaning they import more than they export.

Low prices are preferred when doing more buying than selling.

BFSU | IBS | INTERNATIONAL FINANCE | SPRING 2016

DECLINE OF OIL PRICES

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Page 4: Russia's Rouble Rollercoaster Ride

><BFSU | IBS | INTERNATIONAL FINANCE | SPRING 2016 4

TOP RUSSIAN EXPORT ITEMS

Mineral fuels & oilsIron and steelPrecious metalsFertilisersMachineryWoodAluminiumInorganic chemicalsCopperElectronicsOther

Page 5: Russia's Rouble Rollercoaster Ride

><BFSU | IBS | INTERNATIONAL FINANCE | SPRING 2016

WHY ARE OIL PRICES FALLING?

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Page 6: Russia's Rouble Rollercoaster Ride

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STRONG U.S. DOLLAR | OPEC | OVERSUPPLY | DECLINING DEMAND | THE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL

BFSU | IBS | INTERNATIONAL FINANCE | SPRING 2016

WHY ARE OIL PRICES FALLING?

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Page 7: Russia's Rouble Rollercoaster Ride

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STRONG U.S. DOLLAR | OPEC | OVERSUPPLY | DECLINING DEMAND | THE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL

BFSU | IBS | INTERNATIONAL FINANCE | SPRING 2016

WHY ARE OIL PRICES FALLING?

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Page 8: Russia's Rouble Rollercoaster Ride

><BFSU | IBS | INTERNATIONAL FINANCE | SPRING 2016 8

EXCHANGE RATE

Page 9: Russia's Rouble Rollercoaster Ride

><BFSU | IBS | INTERNATIONAL FINANCE | SPRING 2016 9

1元

2013 5.440761 RUB

2016 10.425877 RUB

PERSONAL EXPERIENCE

45000 RUB

2013

2016

Page 10: Russia's Rouble Rollercoaster Ride

><BFSU | IBS | INTERNATIONAL FINANCE | SPRING 2016 10

1元

2013 5.440761 RUB

2016 10.425877 RUB

PERSONAL EXPERIENCE

45000 RUB

2013 8270,90181 元

2016

Page 11: Russia's Rouble Rollercoaster Ride

><BFSU | IBS | INTERNATIONAL FINANCE | SPRING 2016 11

1元

2013 5.440761 RUB

2016 10.425877 RUB

PERSONAL EXPERIENCE

45000 RUB

2013 8270,90181 元

2016 4316,18366 元

Page 12: Russia's Rouble Rollercoaster Ride

><BFSU | IBS | INTERNATIONAL FINANCE | SPRING 2016 12

1元

2013 5.440761 RUB

2016 10.425877 RUB

PERSONAL EXPERIENCE

35000元

2013

2016

Page 13: Russia's Rouble Rollercoaster Ride

><BFSU | IBS | INTERNATIONAL FINANCE | SPRING 2016 13

1元

2013 5.440761 RUB

2016 10.425877 RUB

PERSONAL EXPERIENCE

35000元

2013 190426,635 RUB

2016

Page 14: Russia's Rouble Rollercoaster Ride

><BFSU | IBS | INTERNATIONAL FINANCE | SPRING 2016 14

1元

2013 5.440761 RUB

2016 10.425877 RUB

PERSONAL EXPERIENCE

35000元

2013 190426,635 RUB

2016 364905,695 RUB

Page 15: Russia's Rouble Rollercoaster Ride

><BFSU | IBS | INTERNATIONAL FINANCE | SPRING 2016 15

The weaker ruble is stoking inflation by driving up prices for imported goods and

creating worsening debts for companies that borrowed from Western banks. 

Now Russians are reportedly bum-rushing malls to swap cash for washing machines, TVs, or laptops—anything that seems as if it might hold value better than paper

money, whose worth is evaporating in real time. 

Page 16: Russia's Rouble Rollercoaster Ride

><BFSU | IBS | INTERNATIONAL FINANCE | SPRING 2016 16

THE RUSSIAN GOVERNMENT ATTEMPTED TO TAMP DOWN BY RAISING INTEREST RATES AS HIGH AS 17%.THE IDEA IS THAT IF YOU OFFER PEOPLE HIGHER INTEREST RATES, THEY'RE MORE LIKELY TO KEEP THEIR MONEY IN

RUBLES. 

Page 17: Russia's Rouble Rollercoaster Ride

><BFSU | IBS | INTERNATIONAL FINANCE | SPRING 2016 17

Page 18: Russia's Rouble Rollercoaster Ride

DO YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS?

Q&A

Page 19: Russia's Rouble Rollercoaster Ride

><BFSU | IBS | INTERNATIONAL FINANCE | SPRING 2016 19

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-12-16/no-caviar-is-not-getting-cheaper-everything-you-need-to-know-

about-the-russian-ruble-collapse

http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/030315/how-does-price-oil-affect-russias-economy.asp

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/102215/4-reasons-why-price-crude-oil-dropped.asp

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2014-12-16/no-caviar-is-not-getting-cheaper-everything-you-need-

to-know-about-the-russian-ruble-collapse

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/business/energy-environment/oil-price-supply-demand-

imblance.html?action=click&contentCollection=Energy%20%26%20Environment

%20&region=Footer&module=WhatsNext&version=WhatsNext&contentID=WhatsNext&moduleDetail=undefined&

pgtype=Multimedia