Russianpotential Final Brief

Presented by: Nicolas Gutowski and Shane Rooney

Project Completed by: Nicolas Gutowski, Shane Rooney, Cameron Ives, Paul Kennedy, Sean Connor, Matthew

Berlowitz

What is the likely impact of the proposed ballistic missile

defense systems (BMDS) on Russia’s general strategic

response in the Balkans and EU region, especially with

respect to Poland and the Czech Republic?

Is it likely that Russia will resolve frozen conflicts in the

Russian-European Union (EU) border region within the

next 5 years, and if so what are the likely ways in which

this will happen.

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Ballistic Missile Defense System Estimate

◦ Key Evidence

Frozen Conflict Estimate

◦ Key Evidence

Tour of the Wiki

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Highly likely that military maneuver response a minor part of a larger power play

◦ A Pattern of Decreasing Rhetoric

◦ Matching NATO Aggression

◦ New and Strengthened Alliances

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Czech Republic◦ Indications of legislative failure Observer Status

Poland◦ Dangerous Game International Law

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It is unlikely that Russia will move to resolve the frozen conflicts in Crimea, Transdniestria, or Nagorno Karabakh.

◦ Current Global Financial Crisis

◦ Instability of Volatile Energy Markets

◦ Unfavorable Conflict Zones

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If Russia were to resolve any of the frozen conflict zones, Crimea represents the most likely of the three.

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http://russianpotential.wikispaces.com

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Thank You

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