RULE THE MARKET - Karvy Onlinecontent.karvyonline.com/contents/kstreetissue043.pdf · 2019. 6. 29. · • Trade window to be relaxed for corporate activity such as block deals, QIPs.

ISSUE: 043

29TH JUNE, 2019

RULE THE MARKET

From The Desk Of Research Head

Disclaimer: Karvy Stock Broking Limited [KSBL] is registered as a research analyst with SEBI (Registration No INZ000172733). KSBL is also a SEBI registered Stock Broker, Depository Participant, Portfolio Manager and also distributes financial products. The subsidiaries and group companies including associates of KSBL provide services as Registrars and Share Transfer Agents, Commodity Broker, Currency and forex broker, merchant banker and underwriter, Investment Advisory services, insurance repository services, financial consultancy and advisory services, realty services, data management, data analytics, market research, solar power, film distribution and production, profiling and related services. Therefore associates of KSBL are likely to have business relations with most of the companies whose securities are traded on the exchange platform. The information and views presented in this report are prepared by Karvy Stock Broking Limited and are subject to change without any notice. 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An eco shift to EVs is inevitable causing preliminary pain to auto makers

The prologue

A preliminary proposal by the government to phase out fossil-fuel-based three-wheelers by 2023 and two-wheelers (up to 150 cc) by 2025 has created controversy among auto makers. It was believed that India will have a 100% electric vehicle (EV) fleet in public transport by 2030, and will aim for 40% electrification in personal transport by then. This was laid out by the NITI Aayog in May 2017 during NDA’s earlier term. The idea now is to advance the timeline by five to seven years for bikes and three-wheelers. On a reasonable rationale, we can say that mass adoption of EVs can’t happen overnight and to reach the desired EV mix by 2030, one has to begin somewhere. But there are strong reasons to believe that the government would have done better to advance the deadline for public transport vehicles such as buses, three-wheelers and taxis. These vehicles account for over a third of diesel consumption by the transport sector (trucks, accounting for 40% are out of the EV regime). If we consider the stats that diesel consumption is more than thrice that of petrol, the sound argument to begin with public transport to shift to EVs becomes stronger. Creating the infrastructure and technology might also be easier to begin with.

The pain factor for two-wheelers

The Rs. 10,000 crore 2nd phase of Faster Adoption and Manufacture of (Hybrid and) Electric Vehicles (FAME II) incentive scheme for EVs which is operational for three years from April 1, 2019 favours public transport by setting aside more than half its funds for e-buses and e-three-wheelers including e-rickshaws. To this extent, moving the deadline for three-wheelers may still be acceptable. The accelerated deadline is for bikes with engine capacity of up to 150cc. Bikes in this category are predominantly used by the middle class, a price-sensitive market. And this move is being contemplated at a time when the adoption of BS VI technology and higher insurance premiums for two-wheelers are pushing up costs. The revised schedule cuts short the time for use of BS VI technology to just 3-5 years for both two and three-wheelers after companies complete the massive investments needed for the BS VI switchover. Whether the supply chain or the charging infrastructure to support mass adoption of any class of EVs will be fully up and running by 2023-2025 is a debatable issue.

More good than bad

However, we need to look at the following statistics before judging the whole situation. The number of two-wheelers sold annually is in the range of 21 million against 3.3 million in case of cars. In smaller cities, two-wheelers are everywhere; they account for 60% of petrol use. Starting with them will send out the message that air quality in cities is a serious matter. However, the production of electricity too should be from clean sources for net emissions to come down.

CONTENTSEquity 1-6

Derivatives 7-8

Commodity 9-12

Currency 13-17

TeamDr. Ravi Singh

Syed Hasan Jafar

Aditya Kistampally

Viplav Dhandhukia

Srinivas Krishnan Bobba

Vaishali Paruthi

Chetan K Waghray

Pankaj Wadhwani

Konpal Pali

Mahesh Bendre

Jayashree Ram

Vivek Ranjan Misra

Veeresh Hiremath

Siddhesh Ghare

Ramesh Chanchala

Ravi Pandey

Ravikanth P

Kushal Asthana

Arpit Chandna

Vinod J

Amit Kumar

Karvy Head Office

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Analyst CertificationThe following Karvy Research Desk, who is (are) primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/ are mentioned therein, certify (ies) that the views expressed herein accurately reflect his (their) personal view(s) about the subject security (ies) and issuer(s) and that no part of his (their) compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report.

- DR. RAVI SINGHHead-Technical & Derivatives Research

EQUITY

Economy: Debt MF tightening

• Sectoral limit cut from 25% to 20%.

• Additional exposure to HFCs cut from 15% to 10%.

• Liquid schemes asked to invest at least 20% in G-secs, T-bills.

• Exit load on liquid scheme investors for investments up to 7 days.

• Security cover of 4 times for loan against shares.

Pledged share disclosures

• Detailed disclosure if promoter pledging crosses 20% of total equity or 50% of promoter holding.

• Definition of pledging widened to cover all types of encumbrance.

Royalty norms

• Royalty threshold relaxed from 2% to 5%.

• Companies whose royalty/brand usage payments exceed 5% of turnover need to seek minority shareholder approval.

Insider trading norms

• Trade window to be relaxed for corporate activity such as block deals, QIPs.

Banking:• IDBI Bank Ltd has invited bids to sell seven land assets of Videocon Industries Ltd and

its arm Prosperous Energy Pvt Ltd in Madhya Pradesh’s Rewa district to recover dues worth nearly Rs. 10.6 Bn. The lender has set reserve price of Rs. 450 Mn for the seven properties.

• Reserve Bank of India’s Financial Stability Report indicated that the credit quality of non-bank lenders’ portfolios could likely weigh on their asset quality and capital requirements, going forward.

Telecommunication:• Salaries for June to 165,000 workforce of Bharat Sanchar Nigam will be disbursed on

time as the state-run company has sufficient cash flows.

Infrastructure:• The Road Transport and Highways Ministry is expected to soon approve the upward

revision of total project expenditure on the Zojila tunnel in Jammu and Kashmir by about a fourth to nearly Rs. 84 Bn.

Pharma:• Aurobindo Pharma Ltd’s non-antibiotic manufacturing unit at Nellore in Andhra Pradesh

cleared the regulator’s audit. In the audit that ended on Apr 19, the US Food and Drug Administration assigned ‘no action indicated’ status to the company’s unit-X indicating a green signal for export of drugs manufactured at the facility.

Aviation:• The Wadia group’s low-cost airline GoAir has inducted 50th aircraft to its fleet and plans

to add at least one aircraft every month.

• The spurt in air fares post grounding of Jet Airways (India) has abated and the Directorate General of Civil Aviation is reviewing the situation every month.

NEWS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

• The real gross domestic product (GDP) in the US expanded 3.1% on a yearly basis in the first quarter to match the market expectation and the previous estimate.

• A deal between OPEC and other oil producers to curb oil output has played a positive role in stabilizing oil markets said Russian President Vladimir Putin.

• Beijing is insisting that the US remove its ban on the sale of US technology to Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei Technologies Co.

TRENDSHEETSymbol CMP S2 S1 R1 R2 TREND

SENSEX 39394.64 38515 38955 39826 40257 Down

NIFTY 11788.85 11524 11656 11916 12044 Down

NIFTYBANK 31105.20 29977 30541 31580 32055 Up

RELIANCE 1253.10 1213 1233 1289 1325 Down

IBULHSGFIN 607.70 571 590 634 661 Down

AXISBANK 808.55 736 772 829 849 Up

YESBANK 108.75 103 106 113 117 Down

SBIN 361.25 343 352 368 374 Up

HDFCBANK 2443.75 2356 2400 2491 2539 Up

ICICIBANK 437.10 416 427 446 455 Up

HDFC 2192.10 2105 2149 2220 2248 Up

TATASTEEL 504.40 456 480 523 541 Up

INDUSINDBK 1410.50 1347 1379 1464 1517 Down

FORTHCOMING EVENTSCOMPANY NAME EVENT EX-DATE

RBL Bank Ltd. Dividend- Rs. 2.7 01-JUL-19

United Phosphorus Ltd. Bonus issue-1:2 02-Jul-19

Welspun Corp Ltd. Buyback of shares 04-Jul-19

Tata Sponge Ltd. Dividend - Rs. – 12.5 04-Jul-19

HDFC AMC Ltd Final Dividend - Rs. – 12.0 04-Jul-19

Axis Bank Ltd. Final Dividend - Rs. – 1.0 04-Jul-19

Evans Electric Ltd. Result update 04-Jul-19

KSTREET - 29TH JUNE 2019 1

INDIAN INDICES (% CHANGE)

GLOBAL INDICES (% CHANGE)

NIFTY MIDCAP100TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (1W)

SECTORAL INDICES (% CHANGE)

FII/FPI & DII TRADING (IN RS. CRORES)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (1W)

EQUITY

Source: Bloomberg

0.00

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Nifty Sensex BSE Midcap

BSE Smallcap

Nifty Next 50

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100 -0.03

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Bank

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0

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Hang Sang

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p

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CA

C 40

-15.00

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-5.00

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-6.00

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21-06-2019 24-06-19 25-06-19 26-06-19 27-06-19

FII/FPI DII


BEAT THE STREET - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Ashok Leyland Ltd CMP Rs.86Target Price Rs.123Upside 43%

New product Launches: Currently, ALL offers commercial vehicles in the range of 2.5 tons to 49 tons in the Indian market. In addition to its robust MHCV product portfolio, ALL plans to offer entire range of LCVs from FY21. The company plans to invest adequately over the next 2 years to introduce entire range of LCV segment (2.5 - 7 ton). We believe this strategic decision has a potential to add additional revenue streams for ALL from domestic and international business going forward in the long term.

Robust Business outlook for FY20: Going forward, FY20 is expected to be a positive growth year for ALL due to pre-buying of commercial vehicles in India before BSVI implementation. The pre-buying of commercial vehicles is expected to take place in Q2 and Q3 of FY20. We believe, ALL being a prominent player in the MHCV segment is well set to benefit from these developments in the medium term. Also any pick up in construction and infra-spending and mining activities in the country is likely to create incremental business opportunities for the company.

Investments and Strategy: ALL plans to incur ~Rs. 30 Bn capital expenditure over the next two years to introduce new products and technologies in commercial vehicle segment in India. This also includes introducing electrical vehicles in India. Since the company is debt free with Rs.7.5 Bn net cash on its balance sheet, funding of this capex is not likely to be challenging.

Financial Estimates: Over FY19-21E, we expect ALL to report 9.7% volume CAGR, 13.8% sales CAGR and 7.6% PAT CAGR. The company is expected to report EPS of Rs. 7.8 and Rs. 8.0 in FY20E and FY21E respectively.

VALUE PARAMETERSFace Value (Rs.) 1.0

52 Week High/Low (Rs.) 137/77

M.Cap (Rs. Bn/US $Bn) 252/3.6

EPS (Rs.) 6.9

P/E Ratio (times) (FY21E) 15.0

Dividend Yield (%) 2.8

Stock Exchange BSE

P/E CHARTValuation

At CMP of Rs.86, based on its core earnings, the stock is currently quoting at 10.8xFY21E earnings. We rate BUY on the stock with a price target of Rs.123 (15xFY21E core earnings + Rs. 7 subsidiary valuations).

EQUITY

% OF SHARE HOLDING

in Rs.Mn ACTUAL ESTIMATE

YE Mar FY 19 FY 20 FY 21

Revenue 290550 341381 376286

EBITDA 31357 38338 41129

EBITDA(%) 10.8 11.2 10.9

PAT 20380 22761 23567

EPS (Rs.) 6.9 7.8 8.0

RoE (%) 27.0 25.2 22.6

P/E 13.5 11.0 10.8

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BEAT THE STREET - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Mphasis Ltd CMP Rs.1004Target Price Rs.1221Upside 22%

VALUE PARAMETERSFace Value (Rs.) 10.0

52 Week High/Low (Rs.) 1279/855

M.Cap (Rs. Bn/US $mn) 187046/2711

EPS (Rs.) 56.05

P/E Ratio (times) (FY20E) 15.0

Dividend Yield (%) 2.7

Stock Exchange BSE

EQUITY

P/E CHART

% OF SHARE HOLDING

in Rs.Mn ACTUAL ESTIMATE

YE Mar FY19 FY20 FY21

REVENUE 77309.8 89163.3 101265.3

EBITDA 13238.3 16049.4 18227.8

EBITDA(%) 17.1 18.0 18.0

PAT 10733.5 11217.9 12704.0

EPS(Rs.) 56.05 58.6 66.3

RoE (%) 20 20.3 20.8

PE (x) 17.6 17.1 15.1

Investment Rationale• We remain positive about the future growth prospects of Mphasis. We

expect revenues to grow at 16% CAGR FY18-21E given the continued momentum in deal wins.

• Overall revenue grew by 14.2% in cc terms in FY19. During FY19, Direct Core revenue increased 16.3% in cc terms whereas DXC/HP business grew by 22.9% in cc terms.

• Operating margin improved by 100 bps in FY19 to 17.1% despite headwinds from rupee depreciation and volatility in Digital Risk Business.

• In FY19, another buyback with outlay of Rs. 9949 Mn resulted in strong EPS growth of 31.4% to Rs. 56.1.

• Direct International business in FY19 had TCV of $616 Mn, 79% of which are related to New-Gen services. New Gen services contribute 46% of Direct Core revenue in FY19, an increase of 45% on yearly basis.

• We believe that there will be further improvement in margins by reducing subcontracting expenses and Digital Risk business will be brought back to its revenue band of $28-30 Mn in FY20.

• On the back of strong execution of large deals won in FY18, the revenue doubled in Blackstone channel in FY19. We believe addition of new clients from Blackstone portfolio will increase Mphasis’ revenue.

Valuation

We recommend a “BUY” for Mphasis for a target price of Rs.1221 with an upside potential of 22%. We value the stock at its 3-year historical average PE of 18.4x to its FY21E EPS of Rs.66.34. Key risks to our call include increase in employee benefit expenses due to some deals and delay in project closures.

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EQUITY

BEAT THE STREET - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Housing Development Finance Corporation Limited

HDFC is our preferred bet amongst FINANCIAL SERVICES sector. The stock has been in the secular uptrend on the weekly charts making higher highs and higher lows. The stock has closed the previous week with a gain of nearly 2.40% outperforming the benchmark NIFTY FIN SERVICE index which gained around 1.75% during the said time frame. The stock has witnessed profit taking from its all time high near 2235 levels and found support near its 21 DEMA on the daily chart which is placed around 2164 levels. The historical price action reflects that stock has respected the said Moving average and bounced well from the same. The bounce that the stock has seen from above said levels of 21 day moving average has seen higher volumes suggesting long accumulation taking place in this counter which is boosting our confidence in the stock. On the momentum oscillator front, the 14 period RSI is trading above the 9 period signal line on the daily as well as weekly charts and witnessed bullish crossover which is fuelling the bullishness in the stock. The stock is trading above all of its major moving averages on daily, weekly charts indicating that positive momentum in the counter will remain intact in near term. The major support for the stock is placed around its short to medium term moving averages on the daily chart placed near 2120-2130 levels, breaching which it may find its next support around its long term moving average on the daily chart which is placed at 1960-1970 levels.

NIIT Technologies Limited

NIIT Technologies has rallied from 457 to 1425 and has corrected to 38.20% Fibonacci retracement levels of the said rally i.e. around 1030 on closing basis and bounced back from there to close above 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels indicating end of the correction and a possible fresh leg of rally from these levels. Stock has given breakout from cup and handle chart pattern on weekly chart suggesting uptrend from these levels. Adding to it, Heiken candlesticks is signalling positive trend on the weekly charts reflecting the stock is well placed to move higher in the coming days. 14 periods RSI is trading above the 9 period averages on daily as well as weekly charts indicating positive momentum. The stock is trading well above all of its major moving averages on daily as well as weekly charts indicating strong positive momentum in the counter for all major time frames. On Bollinger bands stock has tested the mean and moving towards upper band while the bands are expanding indicating positive momentum. At the current levels, the stock has given an excellent opportunity for medium to long term investors to accumulate the stock around 1330-1340 levels for the potential upside targets of 1734-1813 levels over the next 6-9 months, keeping a stop loss below 1025 levels.

STOCK HDFC

CMP 2192.10

ACTION BUY

ENTRY 2180

AVERAGE 2025

STOP LOSS 1860

TARGET 1 2600

TARGET 2 2675

TIME FRAME 4-5 MONTHS

STOCK NIITTECH

CMP 1345

ACTION BUY

ENTRY 1330-1340

AVERAGE 1100

STOP LOSS 1025

TARGET 1 1734

TARGET 2 1813

TIME FRAME 6-9 MONTHS


EQUITY

Sentiment

Initiation 4566

Stop Loss 4700

Target 4410

Lot Size 200

Margin 161000

21-DEMA 4577

Open Interest Shares 2400600

Change in OI 121200

Cost of Carry (%) 3.02

SECTORAL SNIPPETS

NIFTY REALTY (284.80) index has ended the previous week with a gain of more than 3.50% and outperformed Nifty 50 index which has gained around 0.50%. However, at a broader level, Nifty 50 index is trading at all time highs zone while Nifty Realty index is trading at 25% lower than all time highs. The Realty index is trading above last month major unfilled gap up and is also sustaining well above its all major short term moving averages. The index is also trading near its yearly highs indicating that he ongoing bullishness in the index is likely to continue. Breadth of the index is very positive with 7 stocks ending in green and rest 3 stocks ending below neutral line. Leading the leader board, Oberoi Rlty and DLF gained more than 6.00% while rest of the positive stocks have gained in the range of 0.50% to 4.00%. On the flipside, MahLife, Phoenix and Prestige lost in the range of 2.00% to 4.50%. For now, the index has support near 270-275 levels while resistance may be assumed at 300-310 levels. Going forward, we expect the index to trade in a broad range of 275 to 310 with a positive bias.

NIFTY IT (15,936.45) traded on a negative note, settled with loss of nearly -1.54% on weekly closing basis. On the stock front, few stocks like TATAELXSI 2.95%, NIITTECH 2.84% & OFSS 2.59% managed to outperform the underlying index while stocks like HCLTECH -0.95%, TCS -1.01%, WIPRO -1.73%, INFY -2.45%, INFIBEAM -2.55%, MINDTREE -4.28% & TECHM -4.46% underperformed on a weekly closing basis. NIFTY IT index remained under pressure due to appreciating rupee in comparison to dollar. Index after placing a swing high near 16488 levels witnessed a profit booking in last couple of sessions. Technically, index was hovering near its 50-DEMA (16040) while in the last two sessions, index succumbed to pressure and closed below it. Currently, it is holding below its 21 & 50-DEMA and well above its major 200-DEMA which is placed near 15325 levels. On the momentum oscillator front 14-pd RSI moved below its equilibrium levels, approaching oversold territory indicating possibility of further consolidation in the index in the sessions to come. On the downside, index has an immediate support near 15800 levels followed by 15600 levels while on the higher side, 16150 will work as an immediate resistance followed by 16350 levels. Going forward index on sustaining below 16000 levels is likely to trade with mixed to weak bias between 15600-16000 levels.

NIFTY BANK (31,105.20) outperformed the Nifty with gains of 1.56% during the week passed by while the broader index Nifty gained by 0.55%. During the last week, the index moved with an upward bias in the range of 30450-31490. The index may continue to trade with a bullish bias until and unless 30450 levels are taken off from upside. On the news front, the Reserve Bank of India is reviewing its master direction on frauds and considering additional measures for timely recognition of frauds and enforcement action against violations.There is a significant time-lag between the occurrence of bank fraud and its detection. For example, the amount involved in frauds that occurred between FY01 and FY18 formed 90.6% of those reported in FY19. Interestingly, the relative share of public sector banks in the overall fraud amount reported in FY19 was in excess of their relative share in the credit. The RBI report also found that frauds related to loans continued to be dominant, in aggregate constituting 90% of all frauds reported in FY19 by value. In this category, cash credit, working capital loan frauds dominated in PSBs whereas retail term loans (non-housing) were a major contributor to such frauds in private banks (PVBs). On the stock front, AXISBANK, FEDERALBNK and RBLBANK gained by 5.01%, 5.01% and 4.91% respectively during the week while INDUSINDBK and YESBANK lost by 1.98% and 1% respectively. As indicated by the derivatives data, BankNifty may face resistance at 31500 levels followed by 32000 levels. For the week ahead, support for the index can be pegged at 31000 levels followed by 30500 levels.

NIFTY FMCG (29,546.05) has ended the week with a marginal gain of around 0.3% underperforming the benchmark index NIFTY which closed with gains of around 0.6%. Technically, NIFTYFMCG closed below all its major moving averages on the daily chart which indicates inherent weakness. The index is consistently placed below its parabolic SAR on the daily chart which indicates selling pressure in the index for the last 4 weeks. The stocks which have outperformed the NIFTYFMCG index during the week were MCDOWELL-N, TATAGLOBAL, EMAMILTD, GODREJIND, DABUR, GSKCONS and HINDUNILVR while BRITANNIA, JUBLFOOD, GODREJCP, UBL, COLPAL, ITC, PGHH underperformed the index. On the Momentum oscillator front, the 14-period RSI is placed below its 9-period signal line on the daily as well as weekly chart reflecting that the index may face selling pressure in the coming trading sessions. Going ahead, the index is expected to trade with flat to negative bias. The support for the NIFTY FMCG index is pegged around 29200-300 zone followed by 28900 levels. While on the higher side, the index may face resistance around 29700 levels followed by 29900 levels.

FEDERAL BANK LTD: BUY FEDERALBNK (JUL FUTURE) | CMP: 107.30 SECTOR: BFSI

FEDERALBNK has outperformed its broader index in the past trading week and settled higher by 5.40%. On weekly chart, the stock has taken support from the neckline of its Head & Shoulder pattern which was backed by robust volumes indicating strength in the counter. On technical set up, the stock has settled at its 52 weeks high and is expected to witness a surge from here. On the Bollinger band (20, 2) the stock is placed near the higher band supporting the bullishness in its trend. Also the 14 period RSI is placed near 56-60 levels post its positive crossover affirming the current trend to continue in coming future. And even the parabolic SAR is placed well below the price levels supporting the inherent bullishness in the counter. Hence, it is advisable to go long in the counter around 106.50 keeping a stop loss placed below the major support of 103 levels for upside potential of 111 levels.

Sentiment

Initiation 106.50

Stop Loss 103

Target 111

Lot Size 7000

Margin 134000

21-DEMA 105

Open Interest Shares 40481000

Change in OI -9716000

Cost of Carry (%) -13.71

ULTRATECH CEMENT LTD: SELL ULTRACEMCO (JUL FUTURE) | CMP: 4566.05 SECTOR: CEMENT

ULTRACEMCO moved lower by 1.00% on weekly basis for the week gone by and underperformed the Nifty 50 index which ended the week with a gain of around 0.50%. The stock is currently placed below all its major moving averages on daily charts indicating weakness in the counter. The stock is consistently trading in the lower Bollinger band on the daily chart which suggests weakness is likely to persist in the counter. The stock is facing resistance at the Bollinger band mean line and short term moving averages indicating upside is possibly capped. On the momentum oscillator front, the 14 period RSI has just given negative crossover which suggests the stock is likely to trade with a negative bias in the near term. Parabolic SAR on the daily charts suggests the ongoing short term down move is more likely in the counter. Hence, we suggest Smart Traders to short this counter at 4566 levels with a stop loss above the recent highs of 4700 and may look for target of the recent lows zone of 4400-4410 levels.


WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

NIFTY (11788.85): Indian equity benchmark index Nifty 50 closed higher by 0.55%. The index posted first weekly gains during the month on expectations that the government will announce measures to review economic growth in the Budget next week. The moderate gains during the week were due to the caution among market participants ahead of G-20 meet, weak monsoon rains and RBIs concern over NBFC’s liquidity. In the current scenario, Nifty may trade with a bullish bias unless and until 11650-11625 levels are taken off from upside and sustained. For the week ahead to watch, market participants will focus on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting with leaders at the G20 summit, the informal meeting of BRICS leaders, the release of India’s balance of payment for the quarter ended March, fiscal deficit data for April-May and output of eight key core industries for May. On the derivatives front, Open interest data suggests that the index may find its supports around 11700 followed by 11500 levels while on the higher side, 11900 and 12000 may act as strong resistance levels.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

DERIVATIVES

TYPE CALL RATIO IN BANK NIFTY

FIRST LEG Buy 1 lot of BANKNIFTY 04JUL 31200 CE @ 237

SECOND LEG Sell 2 lot of BANKNIFTY 04JUL 31400 CE @ 153

BEP Upper BEP 31669

MAX PROFIT 5380

MAX LOSS Unlimited above UBEP

RATIONALE From last couple of sessions, Bank Nifty is trading with positive bias finding support on the downside. Going forward, index is likely to scale higher. Therefore, one may initiate Call Ratio spread in the index.

TYPE BUY CALL IN NIFTY

FIRST LEG Buy one lot of NIFTY 25JUL 11900 CE @ 150

BEP 12050

MAX PROFIT UNLIMITED ABOVE BEP

MAX LOSS 11250

RATIONALE Benchmark index Nifty after placing an all time high near 12100 levels entered into a consolidation mode, managed to sustain near the support levels. Going forward, index is likely to scale higher and possibly retest its all time high. Therefore, one may consider buying call option in the index.

TYPE BEAR PUT IN STAR

FIRST LEG Buy 1 lot of STAR 25JUL 400 PE @ 19

SECOND LEG Sell 1 lot of STAR 25JUL 380 PE @ 12

BEP 393

MAX PROFIT 14300

MAX LOSS 7700

RATIONALEFrom last few weeks, stock price is trading with a weak bias holding below its short to medium term moving averages, and also momentum in the counter is fading away. In the last session, stock witnessed addition in open interest with fall in price indicating short accumulation in the counter which reaffirms underlying weakness in the counter.

TYPE COVERED CALL IN CANBK

FIRST LEG Buy 1 lot of CANBK 25JUL FUT @ 286

SECOND LEG Sell 1 lot of CANBK 25JUL 295 CE @ 9

LBEP 277

MAX PROFIT 36000

MAX LOSS UNLIMITED BELOW LBEP

RATIONALE From last few weeks, stock is gaining strength and in the last week, stock managed to outperform the underlying Bank Nifty index and also stock witnessed addition in open interest with rise in price indicating long accumulation in the counter depicting possibility of prices to scale higher in sessions to come.

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7KSTREET - 29TH JUNE 2019

DERIVATIVES

FII ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURES FII ACTIVITY IN STOCK FUTURES

TOP 6 LONG BUILD UP

Stock Name LTP % Price Change Open Int % OI Change

TORNTPOWER 281.3 15.05 3702000 27.09

GAIL 311.95 0.11 24600000 21.69

NTPC 141.35 5.05 64608000 19.52

SIEMENS 1311.35 5.74 1357000 15.33

APOLLOHOSP 1359.2 0.81 1450000 9.39

CESC 784.3 3 1176000 8.79

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI

TOP 6 SHORT CLOSURE


NIITTECH 1345.1 2.84 809000 -40.74

APOLLOTYRE 200.65 1.57 8691000 -40.56

ADANIPORTS 410.2 2.04 16068000 -26.1

TATAGLOBAL 269.7 3.02 8505000 -25.51

PVR 1674.75 4.37 598000 -25.5

RBLBANK 638.65 4.36 4984000 -24.48

TOP 6 SHORT BUILD UP


GLENMARK 443.35 -11.32 8078000 48.68

EQUITAS 120.05 -5.55 11840000 40.95

IGL 314.65 -2.87 3858000 36.74

DHFL 72.05 -1.57 25848000 21.86

RAMCOCEM 783.95 -2.58 1085000 18.95

TECHM 706.6 -4.57 14672000 17.5

TOP 6 LONG CLOSURE


BHARATFIN 892.55 -2.48 1165000 -73.54

UJJIVAN 296.55 -0.29 5389000 -25.04

ARVIND 63.3 -0.39 6606000 -22.32

KOTAKBANK 1477.1 -0.85 8243000 -20.39

WIPRO 280.5 -1.87 30928000 -18.02

SRTRANSFIN 1080.45 -1.63 4343000 -15.98

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI

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COMMODITIES

CRUDE OILBrent oil prices rallied towards $65 per barrel by the end of this week on fears of a US military attack on Iran disrupting flows from the Middle East which provides more than 20% of the world’s oil output. Brent oil jumped above $63 a barrel after Iran shot down a US military drone, raising fears of a military confrontation between Tehran and Washington. A rocket hit a site in southern Iraq used by foreign oil companies on Wednesday including US energy giant ExxonMobil wounding three people and threatening to further escalate US-Iran tensions in the region. Gulf OPEC producers will keep their July oil production within their OPEC target despite the current global supply cut pact expiring at end of June, OPEC sources said on Thursday, a signal that the Gulf exporters are reluctant to boost supply. Saudi Arabia, the top global oil exporter’s crude output in June will be around the same level of its May production and its July output will remain within its obligation under the OPEC-led supply cut deal. As per BP Statistical Review of World Energy released in June, OPEC’s share of global production fell to just 41.5% last year, the lowest since 2003. US crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.1 million barrels per day during the week ending June 7, 2019 which was 126,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 93.2% of their operable capacity last week. Separately, US oil stockpiles fell across the board last week with crude inventories dropping more than expected and refined products posting surprise drawdown due to a rise in refining and crude exports and drop in crude production. Crude inventories fell 3.1 million barrels in the week to June 14, nearly thrice analysts’ expectations for a decrease of 1.1 million barrels and dropping from their highest levels since July 2017.

BASE METALSBase metals continued the gains on Monday’s session extending the positivity of previous week. China’s Henan province (peak capacity of 4.85 million tons) is planning to reduce its annual capacity to 2.5 million tons by 2020. The number of aluminum plants has been reduced from 21 to 5 at present, with a total operating capacity of 1.9 million tons. Imports of bauxite at China stood at 9.71 million tons in May which was up 33.18% on a yearly basis and down 4.59% from April as per China Customs data. The January-May imports of the material amounted to around 47.03 million tons. On exports end, China exported 7,536 tons of alumina during May 2019 tumbling 91.6% on the year and with year-to-date exports standing at 177,061 tons up 46.5% year on year. Imports of scrap in China in May rose 8.6% from the previous month to 380,000 tonnes as per the data from General Administration of Customs. As per Reuters survey, the Chinese Environment Ministry has granted 123 companies quotas to import types of scrap metal that will otherwise be off-limits from July 1 including around 240,000 tonnes of copper scrap. In China, steelmakers of Grade A are required to cut capacity of sintering and pelletizing machines, blast furnaces, converters, and lime kilns by 20% while other mills in the region will face cuts of at least 50% according to the official statement issued on Saturday June 22. This shall put the demand side on weaker note making the prices to trade weaker during July. The nickel market was in deficit during January to April 2019 with apparent demand exceeding production by 38.7kt. In the whole of 2018, the calculated deficit was 90 kt. Mine production during January to April was 768.8 kt, 75 kt above the comparable 2018 total. Chinese smelter/refinery output increased by 25 kt compared to 2018 and apparent demand was 36 kt higher than the previous year.

COTTONMCX Cotton futures traded mixed to lower for most part of the week ending on 28th June following subdued demand in physical market. Squeezing profit margin of millers and price disparity of Indian fiber impacted buying activities adversely during the week. Moreover, improved supply outlook and picking up of sowing activities pressurized prices at futures platform. Cotton planting has been higher in Gujarat by 29% y/y as about 7.67 lakh hectare of area was sown under cotton till 24th June in Gujarat compared to 2.41 lakh hectare of prior year. Similarly, farmers in northern region of India have shown good interest to cultivate cotton over the other commercial crop due to better realization thereby overall acreages of cotton in northern states like Punjab, Rajasthan and Haryana has increased during year 2019-20. As per the data compiled by Ministry of Agriculture, cotton acreages in Punjab has increased by 41% y/y to 4 lakh hectare this year wherein same has expanded by 5% y/y to 6.35 lakh hectare in Haryana. However, total acreages under cotton have been lower across India. About 18.18 lakh hectare of area was sown under cotton across India till 21st June against 20.68 lakh hectare of prior year for corresponding period down by 2.5% compared to last year as per Ministry of Agriculture. Cotton prices could remain under pressure in upcoming week due to improved supply outlook supported by increased imports. Forecast of good rainfall during month of July could boost up the sowing activities keeping prices under pressure. The total cotton supply estimated by the CAI during the period from October 2018 to May 2019 is 325 lakh bales of 170 kgs each of which consists of the arrivals of 287.72 lakh bales upto 31st May 2019, imports of 9.28 lakh bales upto 31st May 2019 and the opening stock at the beginning of the season on 1st October 2018 at 28 lakh bales.

RUBBERDuring the week, International rubber futures traded on a negative note during the week ended on 28 June 2019 on account of selling pressure in the market. Appreciation of Japanese yen against US dollar also weighed on Rubber prices. As per the world’s biggest glove maker, small growers are likely to tap more trees due to increase in latex price by 40% since the end of last year which may boost the supply of natural rubber. According to the General Department of Customs, Vietnam natural rubber exports were around 77.48 thousand tonnes in May 2019 which was higher by 2.7% in volume on MoM but down by 28.8% in volume from the preceding year. Year to date rubber exports reached 491.65 thousand tons, an increase of 11.2% in volume on YoY. On Tuesday, India’s government has imposed a countervailing duty on new pneumatic radial tyres imported from China for five years. In the first 5 months of 2019, the amount of rubber exported to India increased sharply compared to the same period in 2018 increased by 44.8%, Bangladesh increased by 80.3%, the Netherlands increased by 31.4%, Brazil increased by 48.1 %. Ivory Coast exported around 230 thousand tonnes of natural rubber in the first four months of 2019 up by 13% YoY. On economic front, US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that a trade deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping was possible this weekend but he is prepared to impose US tariffs on virtually all remaining Chinese imports if the two countries continue to disagree.

GUAR COMPLEX Guar seed and gum futures traded on a negative note during most part of the weak due to selling pressure in the market tracking bearish fundamental outlook. Investors cut their holding due to a weak trend in the physical market. Spot markets witnessed muted demand amid adequate supply in major physical centers of North West part of Rajasthan. Weak rupee against the US dollar may put pressure on Spot markets. As per the first preliminary estimation by Rajasthan government, guar sowing in 2019 was around 93.2 thousand hectares, which increased by 3% on YoY. Moreover, shrinking arrivals across India and further it is expected to be down which may cap excessive losses in guar. However, delay in sowing week on week due to lack of water level and low rainfall in major parts of Rajasthan may be supportive for guar prices. Guar seed most active July contract made a weekly low of Rs. 4152 per quintal and settled the week at Rs. 4170 per quintal tumbled by 1.70% while the gum futures fell by 2.44% and closed the weekly session at Rs. 8328 per quintal. On weekly basis in Rajasthan, arrivals were recorded around 20086.7 quintals from 24th June to 28th May 2019 lower by 8475.3 quintals from the previous week.

SOYBEAN NCDEX Soybean futures traded higher for most part of the previous week on growing worries over delayed sowing activities in central India. Deficit monsoon rainfall in major soybean growing states and limited availability of stocks impacted market sentiments positively during the week. Similarly, CBOT soybean futures traded mixed to lower due to improved weather condition for crop progress in US. Soybean planting in US has been slower so far due to weather issue. USDA crop progress report showed 85% of soybean planting completed till 23 June compared to 100% of prior year for corresponding period and 97% of five years average. Only 71% of soybean emerged till above mentioned period compared to 94% on prior year and 91% of five year average. Moreover, looming uncertainty over trade talk between US and China also prompted speculators to trim long positions at futures platform. Similarly, refine soy oil futures witnessed uptrend on increased landed cost of vet oil. Expectation of increase in import duties on CPO affected market sentiments positively during the week. Soy oil imports in India fell 42% in May from a year ago to 232,003 tonnes while sunflower oil imports plunged 61% to 130,634 tonnes as per Solvent Extractors Association of India. At spot front, soybean prices remained higher at Indore market due to the shrinking supplies. Soybean prices at Indore market were reported at Rs. 3740 per quintal wherein it ruled at Rs. 3750 per quintal at Kota and Rs. 3775 per quintal at Nagpur. Domestic Soymeal prices at Kandla port ruled higher at $467/MT on Thursday wherein prices of soymeal imported from Argentina and Brazil ruled $320 per MT and $327 per MT respectively.


NICKEL

COMMODITIES

TRENDSHEET

Commodities 21-Jun 28-Jun % Change 52 Week High% Change from 52

Week High52 Week Low

% Change from 52 Week Low

MCX Gold (Rs/10 gms) 34167.0 34252.0 0.2% 34893.00 -1.84% 29268.00 17.03%

MCX Silver (Rs/Kg) 37954.0 37547.0 -1.1% 40993.00 -8.41% 34981.00 7.34%

MCX Crude Oil (Rs/bbl) 4017.0 4100.0 2.1% 5669.00 -27.68% 2993.00 36.99%

MCX Natural Gas (Rs/mmBtu) 152.7 161.1 5.5% 358.70 -55.09% 150.70 6.90%

MCX Copper (Rs/kg) 415.7 411.2 -1.1% 469.35 -12.40% 397.40 3.46%

MCX Lead (Rs/kg) 152.7 164.0 7.4% 168.00 -2.38% 123.80 32.47%

MCX Zinc (Rs/kg) 199.4 199.5 0.1% 233.65 -14.62% 163.80 21.79%

MCX Nickel (Rs/kg) 879.8 896.0 1.8% 1030.30 -13.04% 735.00 21.90%

MCX Aluminium (Rs/kg) 141.0 140.2 -0.6% 167.80 -16.48% 124.75 12.34%

NCDEX Soybean (Rs/Quintal) 3611.0 3671.0 1.7% 3915.00 -6.23% 3149.00 16.58%

NCDEX Refined Soy Oil (Rs/10 kg) 739.2 745.1 0.8% 784.00 -4.96% 713.60 4.41%

NCDEX RM Seed (Rs/Quintal) 3924.0 3939.0 0.4% 4244.00 -7.19% 3711.00 6.14%

MCX CPO (Rs/10 kg) 510.0 509.9 0.0% 645.00 -20.95% 483.40 5.48%

NCDEX Castor Seed (Rs/Quintal) 5386.0 5482.0 1.8% 6300.00 -12.98% 4112.00 33.32%

NCDEX Turmeric (Rs/Quintal) 6326.0 6320.0 -0.1% 7464.00 -15.33% 5958.00 6.08%

NCDEX Jeera (Rs/Quintal) 17315.0 17155.0 -0.9% 21000.00 -18.31% 15140.00 13.31%

NCDEX Dhaniya (Rs/Quintal) 6959.0 6890.0 -1.0% 7688.00 -10.38% 4507.00 52.87%

MCX Cardamom (Rs/kg) 2884.5 2994.3 3.8% 2994.30 0.00% 966.30 209.87%

NCDEX Wheat (Rs/Quintal) 1973.0 1973.0 0.0% 2162.00 -8.74% 1770.00 11.47%

NCDEX Guar Seed (Rs/Quintal) 4242.0 4185.0 -1.3% 4869.50 -14.06% 3738.00 11.96%

NCDEX Guar Gum (Rs/Quintal) 8536.0 8318.0 -2.6% 10510.00 -20.86% 7812.00 6.48%

MCX Cotton (Rs/Bale) 22100.0 22100.0 0.0% 24280.00 -8.98% 19950.00 10.78%

NCDEX Cocud (Rs/Quintal) 2844.5 2767.0 -2.7% 2900.00 -4.59% 1510.00 83.25%

MCX Mentha Oil (Rs/kg) 1259.4 1211.0 -3.8% 1846.10 -34.40% 1170.10 3.50%

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

ZINC

SOYBEAN

As on 28th June 2019, LME Nickel 3M forwards are trading around $12700/Mt. In the mentioned price chart, it is visible that prices have breached the flat pattern breakout around $12500 levels. The momentum indicator RSI-14 weekly is trading around 61. The Fibonacci projections 50% resistance is seen around $13250 of the range $10530-13765-11620. Overall trend is positive and we recommend building long positions from lower levels.Recommendation: Nickel 3M LME: Buy at $12500-12550 TP 13250 SL 12000Nickel July MCX: Buy at Rs. 890-895 TP 950 SL 860

As on 28th June 2019, LME Zinc 3M forwards are trading around $2500/Mt. Prices have started rebounding after taking supports around $2430 long term rising trend line support levels. Weekly bearish reversal candle sticks are the supportive clues to anticipate the extension of pullbacks towards the weekly moving averages. The weekly momentum indicator RSI-14 is still in oversold zone at 35. Overall we recommend building long positions.Recommendation: Zinc 3M LME: Buy at $2470-2475 TP 2550 SL 2420Zinc July MCX: Buy at Rs. 198-199 TP 206 SL 195

Soybean July NCDEX futures at the NCDEX platform are trading around Rs. 3670/quintal. Since last few couple of sessions prices are trading above the daily EMA levels (Rs. 3750-3760) levels. The daily momentum indicator RSI-14 is trading around 55 at an equilibrium point. Lower side supports are seen around 3600 and resistance at 3780 levels. Overall trend is positive and we recommend buying from lower levels.Recommendation: Soybean July NCDEX: Buy at Rs. 3750-3760 TP 3780 SL 3680


COMMODITIES

MCX CRUDE- PRICE, VOLUME & OPEN INTEREST MCX NATURAL GAS – PRICE, VOLUME & OPEN INTEREST

CALENDAR SPREAD NYMEX - CRUDE OIL CALENDAR SPREAD NYMEX – NATURAL GAS

NEWS DIGEST

• SEBI has allowed exchanges to launch futures trading in commodity indices. The move will further facilitate mutual fund and institutional participation in commodity exchanges.

• Gold prices were trading higher by Rs. 130 at Rs. 34,306 per 10 gram in evening trade on June 28. The overseas trend was firm as traders were anxious about the outcome of the meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump.

• Indian farmers have planted 14.7 million hectares with summer-sown crops down almost 10% from the previous year, the farm ministry’s data showed on Friday as weak monsoon rains delayed sowing in most parts of the country.

• Crude oil futures were down 0.61% at Rs. 4,090 per barrel on June 28 after US Special Representative for Iran Brian Hook said that the US will slap sanctions on countries that import oil from Iran.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

• Gold prices rose on Friday, heading for their best month in three years, as uncertainty loomed over whether highly anticipated trade talks between China and the US would yield any progress in ending a year-long trade dispute. The yellow metal also been underpinned by a softer dollar which stood at 96.200 after hitting a near one-week high in the previous session.

• Oil prices were steady on Friday and on track for a second straight week of gains ahead of talks over the trade dispute between the US and Chinese Presidents this weekend and on production cuts from OPEC on Monday.

• Iron ore prices in China hit record highs on Friday and booked their biggest quarterly gain since late 2016 buoyed by expectations that supply of the raw material in the world’s top steel producer will remain tight in the second-half of the year.

• Arabica coffee futures on ICE rose to a five-month high on Friday supported partly by concerns that a forecast drop in temperatures late next week in Brazil could pose a threat to crops in the world’s top producer

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COMMODITIES

PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (IN US $)

Commodity Exchange Contract 21-Jun 28-Jun % change

Aluminium LME 3M 1768.00 1798.50 1.73%

Copper LME 3M 5959.50 6002.50 0.72%

Lead LME 3M 1908.50 1940.00 1.65%

Nickel LME 3M 12115.00 12735.00 5.12%

Zinc LME 3M 2433.00 2486.50 2.20%

Gold CME Aug 1403.00 1412.80 0.70%

Silver CME July 14.28 14.28 0.00%

WTI Crude oil CME June 57.60 59.28 2.92%

Natural Gas CME June 2.20 2.32 5.74%

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

Commodity Exchange Contract 21-Jun 28-Jun % change

Soybean CBOT July 915.75 900.00 -1.72%

Soy oil CBOT July 28.42 27.79 -2.22%

CPO BMD Aug 2027.00 2027.00 0.00%

Cotton ICE July 61.30 62.00 1.14%

FUTURE PRICES (% CHANGE)

LME WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)

Commodity Previous week This week Change % Change

Copper 244725 241400 -3325 -1.36%

Zinc 95525 97000 1475 1.54%

Aluminium 1016025 996725 -19300 -1.90%

Lead 67350 66175 -1175 -1.74%

Nickel 168876 164718 -4158 -2.46%

SHANGHAI WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)*


Copper 134747 146019 11272 8.37%

Zinc 86046 79896 -6150 -7.15%

Aluminium 428897 423068 -5829 -1.36%

*Until Wednesday, (Chinese market was closed last week)

GLOBAL STOCK POSITION (IN TONS)

COMEX WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)


Copper 30600 32770 2170 7.09%

US weekly export sales Highlights

Cotton: Net sales of 294,900 MT for 2018/2019 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 7% from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (166,500 MT including 85,800 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 6,700 MT), Mexico (139,000 MT including decreases of 17,700 MT), Colombia (47,800 MT including 46,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 5,000 MT), Taiwan (16,400 MT including decreases of 100 MT) and Honduras (16,400 MT). Reductions were primarily for unknown destinations (97,300 MT). For 2019/2020, net sales of 110,100 MT were primarily for Mexico (84,000 MT), unknown destinations (16,500 MT), and Colombia (5,000 MT). Exports of 696,400 MT were up 9% from the previous week but down 31% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Japan (241,900 MT), Mexico (197,200 MT), Colombia (63,800 MT), China (61,600 MT) and Costa Rica (30,300 MT).

Wheat: Net sales of 612,000 metric tons were reported for delivery in marketing year 2019/2020. The primary destinations were the Philippines (116,000 MT), Guatemala (88,300 MT including 21,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 800 MT), Japan (81,500 MT), El Salvador (71,100 MT, including 6,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Colombia (64,600 MT). Reductions were reported for Nigeria (10,600 MT), Burma (700 MT), and Algeria (600 MT). Exports of 418,500 MT were primarily to Algeria (111,900 MT), Guatemala (64,600 MT), Japan (57,000 MT), Taiwan (54,400 MT) and Nigeria (49,300 MT).

Sorghum: Net sales reductions of 3,400 MT for 2018/2019 resulted in increases for China (49,600 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,000 MT). Exports of 109,600 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. The destination was China. Optional Origin: For 2018/2019, options were exercised to export 10,000 MT to Japan from other than the US. The current outstanding balance of 500 MT is for unknown destinations.

Rice: Net sales of 96,700 MT for 2018/2019 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 37% from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (27,800 MT), Honduras (23,700 MT), Haiti (13,200 MT including decreases of 2,100 MT), Panama (9,400) and Portugal (6,300 MT). For 2019/2020, net sales of 16,400 MT were reported for Colombia (13,400 MT) and Jordan (3,000 MT). Exports of 68,200 MT were down 2% from the previous week and 18% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were to Panama (24,500 MT), Haiti (12,900 MT), Honduras (11,500 MT), Venezuela (5,600 MT) and Canada (2,700 MT).

Soybean Cake and Meal: Net sales of 28,700 MT for 2018/2019 were down 74% from the previous week and 78% from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Venezuela (25,000 MT), Honduras (15,700 MT including 6,000 MT switched from Guatemala), Canada (11,600 MT), Mexico (11,200 MT) and Nicaragua (7,400 MT). Reductions were primarily for Italy (38,000 MT). For 2019/2020, net sales of 41,000 MT were for Italy (38,000 MT), Guatemala (1,600 MT), the Dominican Republic (1,000 MT) and Canada (300 MT). Exports of 107,100 MT were down 36% from the previous week and 42% from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (45,100 MT), Canada (19,600 MT), Guatemala (9,600 MT), Burma (8,300 MT) & Honduras (6,500 MT).

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-6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00%

Natural Gas

Mentha Oil

Turmeric

Soybean

Soy Oil

Barley

Zinc

Castor Seed

Jeera

Aluminum

RM Seed

Dhaniya

Guar Gum

Lead

CPO

Guar Seed

Cardamom

Wheat

Cotton Seed Oil Cake

Nickel

Copper

Cotton

Silver

Gold

Crude Oil


USD/INR

USDINR is trading at 69.01. During the week, it made a high of 69.60 and low of 68.88. The RSI is at 42.20. Moving average of 32 is at 69.86 and 55 is at 69.54. The trend is looking sideways for the week. Hence, we recommend Buying at 68.80-68.60 TP 69.60 SL 68.40

EUR/INR

EURINR is trading at 78.51. During the week, it made a high of 79.22 and low of 78.30. The RSI is trading at 46.40. Moving average of 32 is at 79.12 and 55 is at 79.30. The trend is looking sideways for the week. Hence, we recommend Selling at 79.00-79.20 TP 78.00 SL 79.50.

GBP/INR

GBPINR is trading at 87.56. During the week, it made a high of 88.75 and low of 87.25. The RSI is trading at 37.03. Moving average of 32 is at 90.11 and 55 is at 90.27. The trend is looking negative for the week. Hence, we recommend selling at 88.10-88.20 TP 87.00 SL 88.60.

JPY/INR

JPYINR is trading at 64.07. During the week, it made a high of 64.90 and low of 63.91. The RSI is at 54.15. Moving average of 32 is at 63.42 and 55 is at 62.96. The trend is looking negative for the week. Hence, we recommend Selling at 64.50-64.40 TP 63.00 SL 65.00.

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONMARKET STANCE

Rupee closed sharply weaker at 69.80 after hitting day high of 69.85 and day low of 69.51. The pair broke the trading range held for the past few sessions favouring dollar. Sensex was down 289 points at 39,452 while Nifty was down 90 points at 11,823. Equities extended losses sharply in late trade amid source-based news that India may impose retaliatory tariffs on 29 US products. India’s May WPI inflation came at 2.45% against 3.07%, MoM which is at its lowest level since July 2017. Food inflation at 5.1%, primary articles inflation at 6.16% and fuel & power inflation at 0.98% MoM. Now that we are done with the general elections, the market will focus on Union budget, monsoon progression, companies’ performance, crude oil, global news and events. The Union Budget for 2019-20 will provide the roadmap for banking reforms including consolidation of the state-owned lenders. Budget is scheduled to be presented on 5 July by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on the backdrop of India’s economy hitting five-year low growth of 6.8% in 2018-19. The ongoing crisis in the NBFC sector and muted global cues are denting rupee sentiment. Investors to remain focused on fresh triggers in the upcoming Union Budget for further direction. Repo rate was cut by 25 basis points to 5.75% by the RBI in the recently concluded meet. Stance of monetary policy changed from neutral to accommodative. This means that RBI is open to cutting interest rates further. Summing it up USD/INR will be driven by the Union budget, crude oil prices and FII flows. In all likelihood, there may be some significant outflows from the FIIs in the near term considering our macro economy concerns. Rupee may test 70 levels in the coming week.

NEWS FLOWS OF LAST WEEK

• US and Mexico struck a migration deal late last week to avert a tariff war.

• Group of 20 finance leaders said that trade and geopolitical tensions have “intensified”, raising risks to improving global growth.

• US nonfarm payrolls increased by 75,000 jobs last month, much lower than the 185,000 additions estimated.

• President Trump said he was ready to impose another round of punitive tariffs on Chinese imports if he cannot make progress in trade talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit.

• Euro took a hit after Trump said he was considering sanctions over Russia’s Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline project and warned Germany against being dependent on Russia for energy.

• India’s CPI (YoY) for May stood at 3.05 % against 3.01 % forecasted.

• Investor focus turned to next week’s Federal Reserve meeting for cues on a possible interest rate cut in light of rising risks to trade and global growth.

• FOMC will use the June meeting to a hint of a rate cut, maybe as early as in July.

CURRENCY

CURRENCY TABLE

Currency Pair Open High Low Close

USDINR 69.47 69.93 69.43 69.55

EURINR 78.58 78.83 77.78 78.68

GBPINR 88.36 88.67 87.20 88

JPYINR 64.04 65.53 63.93 64.51


ECONOMIC GAUGE FOR THE NEXT WEEK

Local Start Date Local Time Country Relevance Indicator Name Period Reuters Poll Actual Unit

28 Jun 2019 17:00 India Low Infrastructure Output YY May Percent

1 Jul 2019 07:15 China (Mainland) High Caixin Mfg PMI Final Jun 50.0 Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2019 10:30 India High Nikkei Markit Mfg PMI Jun 51.7 Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2019 19:15 United States High Markit Mfg PMI Final Jun Index (diffusion)

1 Jul 2019 19:30 United States Medium Construction Spending MM May 0.2% Percent

1 Jul 2019 19:30 United States High ISM Manufacturing PMI Jun 51.0 Index

1 Jul 2019 19:30 United States Medium ISM Mfg Prices Paid Jun 53.1 Index

1 Jul 2019 19:30 United States Low ISM Manuf Employment Idx Jun Index

1 Jul 2019 19:30 United States Low ISM Manuf New Orders Idx Jun Index

1 Jul 2019 20:30 United States Not Rated Export Wheat Inspected 27 Jun, w/e Tonne

1 Jul 2019 20:30 United States Not Rated Export Corn Inspected 27 Jun, w/e Tonne

1 Jul 2019 20:30 United States Not Rated Exp Soybean Inspected 27 Jun, w/e Tonne

2 Jul 2019 18:25 United States Low Redbook MM 29 Jun, w/e Percent

2 Jul 2019 18:25 United States Low Redbook YY 29 Jun, w/e Percent

2 Jul 2019 19:15 United States Low ISM-New York Index Jun Index

2 Jul 2019 19:15 United States Low ISM NY Biz Conditions Jun Index

3 Jul 2019 03:00 United States Not Rated API weekly crude stocks 24 Jun, w/e #N/P #N/P Number of

3 Jul 2019 03:00 United States Not Rated API weekly gasoline stk 24 Jun, w/e #N/P #N/P Number of

3 Jul 2019 03:00 United States Not Rated API weekly dist. stocks 24 Jun, w/e #N/P #N/P Number of

3 Jul 2019 03:00 United States Not Rated API weekly heating oil 24 Jun, w/e #N/P #N/P Number of

3 Jul 2019 03:00 United States Not Rated API weekly crude imports 24 Jun, w/e #N/P #N/P Number of

3 Jul 2019 03:00 United States Not Rated API weekly product imports 24 Jun, w/e #N/P #N/P Number of

3 Jul 2019 03:00 United States Not Rated API weekly crude runs 24 Jun, w/e #N/P #N/P Number of

3 Jul 2019 03:00 United States Not Rated API Cushing number 24 Jun, w/e #N/P #N/P Number of

3 Jul 2019 07:15 China (Mainland) High Caixin Services PMI Jun Index (diffusion)

3 Jul 2019 10:30 India High Nikkei Markit Svcs PMI Jun 50.4 Index (diffusion)

3 Jul 2019 16:30 United States Low MBA Mortgage Applications 28 Jun, w/e Percent

3 Jul 2019 16:30 United States Low Mortgage Market Index 28 Jun, w/e Index

3 Jul 2019 16:30 United States Low MBA Purchase Index 28 Jun, w/e Index

3 Jul 2019 16:30 United States Low Mortgage Refinance Index 28 Jun, w/e Index

3 Jul 2019 16:30 United States Low MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate 28 Jun, w/e Percent

3 Jul 2019 17:00 United States Low Challenger Layoffs Jun Person

3 Jul 2019 17:00 India Low M3 Money Supply 21 Jun, w/e Percent

3 Jul 2019 17:45 United States Medium ADP National Employment Jun 140k Person

3 Jul 2019 18:00 United States High International Trade $ May -53.1B USD

3 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Not Rated Goods Trade Balance (R) May USD

3 Jul 2019 18:00 United States High Initial Jobless Claims 29 Jun, w/e 220k Person

3 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Low Jobless Claims 4-Wk Avg 29 Jun, w/e Person

3 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Medium Continued Jobless Claims 22 Jun, w/e Person

3 Jul 2019 19:15 United States High Markit Comp Final PMI Jun Index (diffusion)

3 Jul 2019 19:15 United States High Markit Svcs PMI Final Jun Index (diffusion)

3 Jul 2019 19:30 United States Low Durables Ex-Def, R MM May Percent

3 Jul 2019 19:30 United States Low Durable Goods, R MM May Percent

3 Jul 2019 19:30 United States High Factory Orders MM May -0.5% Percent

3 Jul 2019 19:30 United States Low Durables Ex-Transpt R MM May Percent

3 Jul 2019 19:30 United States Low Nondef Cap Ex-Air R MM May Percent

3 Jul 2019 19:30 United States Low Factory Ex-Transp MM May Percent

3 Jul 2019 19:30 United States High ISM N-Mfg PMI Jun 56.1 Index

3 Jul 2019 19:30 United States Low ISM N-Mfg Bus Act Jun Index

3 Jul 2019 19:30 United States Low ISM N-Mfg Employment Idx Jun Index

3 Jul 2019 19:30 United States Low ISM N-Mfg New Orders Idx Jun Index

3 Jul 2019 19:30 United States Low ISM N-Mfg Price Paid Idx Jun Index

CURRENCY


3 Jul 2019 20:00 United States Not Rated EIA Weekly Crude Stocks 28 Jun, w/e Barrel

3 Jul 2019 20:00 United States Not Rated EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks 28 Jun, w/e Barrel

3 Jul 2019 20:00 United States Not Rated EIA Weekly Gasoline Stk 28 Jun, w/e Barrel

3 Jul 2019 20:00 United States Not Rated EIA Weekly Crude Imports 28 Jun, w/e Barrel

3 Jul 2019 20:00 United States Not Rated EIA Weekly Rfg Stocks 28 Jun, w/e Barrel

3 Jul 2019 20:00 United States Not Rated EIA Weekly Heatoil Stock 28 Jun, w/e Barrel

3 Jul 2019 20:00 United States Not Rated EIA Weekly Prods Imports 28 Jun, w/e Barrel/Day

3 Jul 2019 20:00 United States Not Rated EIA Weekly Dist Output 28 Jun, w/e Barrel/Day

3 Jul 2019 20:00 United States Not Rated EIA Weekly Crude Runs 28 Jun, w/e Barrel/Day

3 Jul 2019 20:00 United States Not Rated EIA Weekly Refining Util 28 Jun, w/e Percent

3 Jul 2019 20:00 United States Not Rated EIA Wkly Crude Cushing 28 Jun, w/e Barrel

3 Jul 2019 20:00 United States Not Rated EIA Weekly Gasoline O/P 28 Jun, w/e Barrel/Day

3 Jul 2019 21:30 United States Not Rated EIA- Nat Gas, Change Bcf 28 Jun, w/e Cubic foot

3 Jul 2019 21:30 United States Not Rated Nat Gas-EIA Implied Flow 28 Jun, w/e Cubic foot

3 Jul 2019 23:00 United States Not Rated EIA Ethanol Ref Stk 28 Jun, w/e Barrel

3 Jul 2019 23:00 United States Not Rated EIA Ethanol Fuel Total 28 Jun, w/e Barrel/Day

4 Jul 2019 02:30 United States Not Rated All Car Sales Jun Units

4 Jul 2019 02:30 United States Not Rated All Truck Sales Jun Units

5 Jul 2019 17:00 India Low Bank Loan Growth 17 Jun, w/e Percent

5 Jul 2019 17:00 India Low Deposit Growth 17 Jun, w/e Percent

5 Jul 2019 17:00 India Low FX Reserves, USD 24 Jun, w/e USD

5 Jul 2019 18:00 United States High Non-Farm Payrolls Jun 158k Person

5 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Medium Private Payrolls Jun 135k Person

5 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Low Manufacturing Payrolls Jun 0k Person

5 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Low Government Payrolls Jun Person

5 Jul 2019 18:00 United States High Unemployment Rate Jun 3.6% Percent

5 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Medium Average Earnings MM Jun 0.3% Percent

5 Jul 2019 18:00 United States High Average Earnings YY Jun 3.2% Percent

5 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Medium Average Workweek Hrs Jun 34.4 Hour

5 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Low Labor Force Partic Jun Percent

5 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Low U6 Underemployment Jun Percent

5 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Not Rated Corn Export Sales New 24 Jun, w/e Tonne

5 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Not Rated Corn Export Sales Net 24 Jun, w/e Tonne

5 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Not Rated Corn Exp Sale Next Yr Net 24 Jun, w/e Tonne

5 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Not Rated Corn Exp Sales Net Total 24 Jun, w/e Tonne

5 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Not Rated Soybean Export Sales New 24 Jun, w/e Tonne

5 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Not Rated Soybean Export Sales Net 24 Jun, w/e Tonne

5 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Not Rated Soybean Exp Sale Next Yr Net 24 Jun, w/e Tonne

5 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Not Rated Soybean Exp Sale Net Total 24 Jun, w/e Tonne

5 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Not Rated Soybeanmeal Exp Sale Net 24 Jun, w/e Tonne

5 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Not Rated Soymeal Exp Sls Next Yr Net 24 Jun, w/e Tonne

5 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Not Rated Soybn Meal Exp Sls Net Total 24 Jun, w/e Tonne

5 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Not Rated Soybeanoil Exp Sales Net 24 Jun, w/e Tonne

5 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Not Rated Soybn Oil Exp Sls Nxt Yr Net 24 Jun, w/e Tonne

5 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Not Rated Soybn Oil Exp Sls Net Total 24 Jun, w/e Tonne

5 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Not Rated Wheat Export Sales New 24 Jun, w/e Tonne

5 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Not Rated Wheat Export Sales Net 24 Jun, w/e Tonne

5 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Not Rated Wheat Exp Sale Next Yr Net 24 Jun, w/e Tonne

5 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Not Rated Wheat Exp Sale Net Total 24 Jun, w/e Tonne

5 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Not Rated Beef Export Sales New 24 Jun, w/e Tonne

5 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Not Rated Beef Export Sales Net 24 Jun, w/e Tonne

5 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Not Rated Up Cotton Exp Sales New 24 Jun, w/e Number of

5 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Not Rated Up Cotton Exp Sales Net 24 Jun, w/e Number of

5 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Not Rated US Pork Export Sales New 24 Jun, w/e Tonne

5 Jul 2019 18:00 United States Not Rated US Pork Export Sales Net 24 Jun, w/e Tonne

CURRENCY


EVENTS

ARTICLES PUBLISHED IN MEDIA


EVENTS

ARTICLES PUBLISHED IN MEDIA

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RULE THE MARKET - Karvy Onlinecontent.karvyonline.com/contents/kstreetissue043.pdf · 2019. 6. 29. · • Trade window to be relaxed for corporate activity such as block deals, QIPs.

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