RULE THE MARKET - Karvy Onlinecontent.karvyonline.com/contents/kstreetissue068.pdf · 2019-12-21 · merchant banker and underwriter, Investment Advisory services, insurance repository

ISSUE: 068

21ST DECEMBER, 2019

RULE THE MARKET

From The Desk Of Research Head

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It is confirmed that KSBL and Research Analysts, primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/ are mentioned therein of this report have not received any compensation from the subject company mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. It is confirmed that Research Analyst did not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report. KSBL may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Neither the Research Analysts nor KSBL have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report. We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on KSBL by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analyst activities.

Corporate India may require a systematic informant system

Whenever a whistle blowing event occurs in Corporate India, the stock prices of the listed firm seems to react violent making the investors losing a large chunk of their investment value. However, the panic reaction seems massive. It can be a result of a series of misgovernance issues among the Indian corporates that have been afloat in recent years which are engraved deeply in the investor psyche. However, as a result, investors are also coming forward to question the respective managements. Even though the whistle-blower complaints are not new for the Infosys, it acted swift with its already well-established process to its recent complaints. Its audit committee has investigated the issue, recusing its CEO and CFO on whom the whistle was blown in its initial developments. However, it may not be same for all the corporates in India. Even though the whistleblower complaints gives the first hint of many scams in India, the legal framework gives fewer incentives to water the culture of insider whistleblowers to alert against corporate fraud.

The laws to facilitate corporate whistleblowing in India are arbitrarily drafted. Even though Section 177(9) of the amended Companies Act of 2013 requires listed companies and such companies accepting deposits and material borrowings to establish a vigilant mechanism, the execution of such is loosely defined. Even though the mechanism is meant to facilitate directors or employees to report fraudulent or unethical behaviour, it’s not compulsory for the companies to provide email id. Resolution is left to the discretion of the company and anonymous complaints are actively discouraged. SEBI’s LODR Regulations go a little farther by tasking audit committees with reviewing the whistleblower mechanism. But they fail to specify any process for complaint resolution. Even in cases where companies do have a proper whistleblowing mechanism, complaints are often investigated by the in-house audit committee. Given how pliant independent directors on corporate boards tend to be in the Indian context, it seems a tall task to expect the audit committee to protect the identity of the whistleblower or to nail the culprits. In many cases, forensic audits commissioned by the regulator have unearthed substantial evidence of fraud after perpetrators were exonerated by in-house audit committees. This imperfect situation leads to whistleblowers taking their complaints to the media where they can get widely disseminated before being proved, opening the doors to wealth destruction and market manipulation.

Establishing a centralised whistleblower mechanism under the auspices of the market regulator appears to be the best way to solve this problem. The Office of the Whistle-blower under the US SEC has been quite successful at unearthing corporate frauds since its inception in 2010. SEBI has recently mooted an ‘informant’ mechanism for reporting cases of insider trading. There’s no reason why this shouldn’t be extended to whistle-blowing on all legal and corporate governance infractions in listed firms.

CONTENTSEquity 1-5

Commodity 6-9

Currency 10-11

TeamDr. Ravi Singh

Syed Hasan Jafar

Srinivas Krishnan Bobba

Osho Krishan

Vivek Ranjan Misra

Thomas V Abraham

Rahul Sharma

Akshaya Shinde

Veeresh Hiremath

Siddhesh Ghare

Arpit Chandna

Bharat Sunnam

Ramesh Chenchala

Kushal Asthana

Amit Kumar

Karvy Head Office

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Analyst CertificationThe following Karvy Research Desk, who is (are) primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/ are mentioned therein, certify (ies) that the views expressed herein accurately reflect his (their) personal view(s) about the subject security (ies) and issuer(s) and that no part of his (their) compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report. - DR. RAVI SINGH

Head-Technical & Derivatives Research

EQUITY

EconomyIMF Chief economist Gita Gopinath on India’s growth expectations in H2FY20.

• Gopinath said India’s GDP growth was expected to pick up in the last two quarters of FY20 but some high-frequency indicators show that a recovery is unlikely.

• Issues highlighted include problems in the banking sector, slower consumption spend due to poor rural income and farm output.

• Reserve Bank of India’s reduced rates by 135 basis points this year and that is a significant amount of stimulus in the system. The pass-through in 2019 has been lower than in the previous years, but it is expected to improve in 2020.

The IMF will release a report on India’s economic growth outlook on January 20, 2020 and is expected to cut the growth estimate for India “significantly”.

Investments via P-notes decline to Rs. 69,670cr at Nov-end

• The total value of investments via P-notes in the Indian markets (including equity, debt, and derivatives) declined by Rs. 7,103 crore to Rs. 69,670 crore by the end of November from Rs. 76,773 crore at October-end.

• The investment of Rs. 76,773 crore at the end of October was registered after a continuous decline since June, the data with markets regulator Sebi showed.

Auto Tata Motors sees EV sales doubling in FY-21, to cross 1000 mark in FY-20

• With the introduction of the compact Nexon EV SUV, Tata Motors is expecting its sales of EV models to double in the next fiscal year starting April 2020.

• In the ongoing fiscal year, the company is set to cross the 1000-unit sales mark for EVs, said people in the know.

FMCG and Retail The Tata Group is in talks with US retailer Walmart to acquire 49% stake in its wholesale cash and carry business in India.

Top consumer goods firms including Hindustan Unilever, ITC, Nestle, Britannia and Parle expect consumer demand to recover by the middle of next year, helped by government interventions and improved sentiments in rural areas.

• Consumer product sales have been tapering off consistently over the past four quarters, and experts said the low base will also help sales revival.

• Hair oil, shampoos, toothpastes and biscuits have been among the worst hit in the FMCG industry due to the prolonged slowdown in consumer spending, which has hit volume growth of major players in the previous quarter.

• Leading FMCG firm Nestle India said it is examining the show-cause notice slapped by the National Anti-profiteering Authority (NAA) for not passing on GST benefits to customers and take the next course of action in due course.

• On December 12th, the NAA imposed a penalty of Rs. 90 crore on Nestle India for not passing on the benefit on rate reduction to consumers.

• More than 300 international fashion and lifestyle brands will open stores in India by 2022, according to a McKinsey & Company report.

Bank • RBI plans to conduct an auction on December 23rd for simultaneous purchase and sale of

government securities under open market operations (OMO) to infuse durable liquidity.

• SBI buys Rs. 500 crore of pooled assets portfolio of NBFCs, HFCs.

• Banks SoS to govt on telecom exposure.

Energy /Infra Infra players pitch for captive renewable energy policy, exemption from cross subsidy charges.

• Infrastructure sector on Friday urged the government to bring captive renewable policy and exempt from cross subsidy and transmission charges to make renewable energy more viable for those willing to set up clean energy plants beyond factory boundaries.

• The infrastructure companies raised these issues during a pre-budget consultation with Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and top officials from finance, new & renewable, road transport and environment ministries.

Growth in India’s renewable energy sector has slumped to a five-year low.

• Renewable energy generation grew at 5.7% in the seven months to October 2019, falling sharply from 28.5% in the year-ago period and 25% in 2018-19, data issued by the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) said.

• Government officials said curtailment of generation by states and slowdown in overall electricity demand are the key factors behind the low renewable energy generation. The growth has been around 20% per annum in the last five years. Data prior to 2014 is not available.

Pharma /Healthcare • Lupin gets USFDA nod to market skin ointment Betamethasone Dipropionate in the American

market.

• As per IQVIA MAT September 2019 data, Betamethasone Dipropionate ointment USP Augmented, 0.05 per cent had an annual sales of around USD 22 Mn in the US.

• Natco launches cut price versions of cancer drug Ibrutinib in India under the name Ibrunat.

• Ibrutinib is used to treat patients with leukemia and similar other indications of cancer. A Natco official confirmed its launch but refused to divulge more details. It is learnt that the Indian drug maker has already dispatched the drug in distribution channels.

• Piramal enterprises looks to sell 20% equity in healthcare business.

NEWS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

• The three-day Central Economic Work Conference headed by President Xi, which took place under shadow of the ongoing trade war with the US, concluded here on December 12th. The conference discussed economic targets for 2020, including gross domestic product (GDP) growth and inflation ahead of China’s annual legislative session to be held in March.

• Tesla’s German factory to produce 50000 cars a year. The carmaker will employ about 10,000 people at the site, which will occupy an area equivalent to 420 soccer fields, the newspaper said, citing initial plans for the factory, which shows a complete production line as well as testing facilities. Construction is set to start in 2020.

• US negotiators have offered to reduce tariffs on about $375 Bn in Chinese goods by 50% across the board, two people familiar with the negotiations said on December 12th, and suspend tariffs on $160 Bn in goods scheduled for December 15th.

• Airline net profits are now expected to fall to $25.9 Bn from $27.3 Bn last year, before recovering to $29.3 Bn in 2020, the International Air Transport Association said. In June it had forecast $28 Bn in profit for 2019.

TRENDSHEETSYMBOL CMP S2 S1 R1 R2 TREND

SENSEX 41681.54 40578 41130 42022 42362 Up

NIFTY 12271.80 11956 12114 12362 12452 Up

NIFTYBANK 32384.95 31696 32041 32586 32788 Up

TCS 2220.00 2016 2118 2284 2349 Up

RELIANCE 1599.75 1529 1564 1626 1653 Up

HDFC 2405.00 2286 2346 2462 2519 Up

TATASTEEL 461.65 405 433 477 492 Up

SBIN 337.30 319 328 343 349 Up

YESBANK 50.75 41 46 55 58 Down

HDFCBANK 1296.00 1226 1261 1318 1341 Up

ICICIBANK 546.00 527 537 552 559 Up

TATAMOTORS 176.55 163 170 184 191 Up

BHARTIARTL 452.85 401 427 470 486 Up

FORTHCOMING EVENTSCOMPANY NAME EVENT EX-DATE

ABB Spin off 20 Dec 2019

Cholamandalam finance Interim Dividend – Rs.1 20 Dec 2019

R Dystems International Ltd. Interim Dividend – Rs.1.5 20 Dec 2019

Axita Cotton Ltd. Bonus Issue 1:1 26 Dec 2019

Balmer Lawrie & Co. Ltd. Bonus Issue 1:2 26 Dec 2019

KSTREET - 21ST DECEMBER, 2019 1

INDIAN INDICES (% CHANGE)

GLOBAL INDICES (% CHANGE)

NIFTY MIDCAP100TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (1W)

SECTORAL INDICES (% CHANGE)

FII/FPI & DII TRADING (IN RS. CRORES)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (1W)

EQUITY

Source: Bloomberg

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

Nifty Sensex BSE Midcap

BSE Smallcap

Nifty Next 50

Nifty Midcap

100

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

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1000

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16-12-2019 17-12-19 18-12-19 19-12-19 20-12-19

FII/FPI DII

KSTREET - 21ST DECEMBER, 2019 2

RELATIVE PERFORMANCE

% OF SHAREHOLDING

in Rs.Mn ACTUAL ESTIMATE

YE Mar FY19 FY20E FY21

REVENUE 153,851 174,914 188,467

EBITDA 33,288 39,810 42,058

EBITDA(%) 21.6 22.8 22.3

PAT 18,795 25,328 25,818

EPS (Rs.) 113.2 152.4 155.3

RoE (%) 14.1 16.7 14.9

PE (x) 25.3 18.8 18.4

BEAT THE STREET - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Dr.Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd CMP Rs.2863Target Price Rs.3259Upside 14%

VALUE PARAMETERSFace Value (Rs.) 5.0

52 Week High/Low (Rs.) 2992/1873

M.Cap (Rs. Bn/US $mn) 476 /6687

EPS (Rs.) 155.3

P/E Ratio (times) (FY20E) 18.4

Dividend Yield (%) -

Stock Exchange NSE

EQUITY

Investment Rationale

• The company has taken gradual shift and is a diversified pharma company with

major revenues coming from US and India + Emerging Markets. We are enthused

by company’s performance and maintain BUY on the stock.

• The India piece is expected to grow in double digits with increasing focus on

brand introductions and increasing productivity. The EM piece will show renewed

traction with concentrated efforts on increasing market share in chosen therapy

areas including expansion of biosimilars and oncology portfolio, focus on scaling

up in major markets, which include Russia, China, Brazil, South Africa and Ukraine.

As the branded piece is more profitable, higher growth and higher contribution

will yield better margins for the company.

• Changing dynamics of the generics markets, cost competitiveness will continue

to be key drivers. The company has launched 15-16 products YTD of which

Daptomycin, Vitamin K, Testosterone, re-launch of Isotret and Fosaprepitant are

important products which could generate revenues in excess of USD 10-15 Mn.

Propofol injection is another important product but scale up would take time for

this product. On regulatory front, all plants have clearance except Srikakulam

API plant. The company would continue to show decent revenue traction going

ahead.

• In FY 2019, cost optimization initiatives enabled company to improve profitability.

Multi-year initiatives are now in place to drive cost and procurement efficiencies;

to optimize R&D spends and productivity; and to improve manpower throughput

by delivering and eliminating needless overlaps.

• To create a profitable and sustainable model, the company has sold its antibiotic

formulations facility in Bristol, US, its API manufacturing business unit at

Jeedimetla, Hyderabad; and the rights to distribute and market the specialty

derma brands portfolio.

Valuation

We upgrade our revenue estimates for FY20E by 1.2% and

downgrade our FY21E by 5.3% mainly due to downgrade in US

business. We marginally decline our EBITDA margins for both

the years. We however upgrade our EPS estimates for FY20E by

4.4 % to Rs. 152.4 while we maintain our EPS estimates at Rs. 155.3

for FY21E. We downgrade our rating on the stock to ‘Hold’ with a

price target of Rs. 3259 based on 21x FY21E.

27%

30%9%

34%Promoters

FII

DII

Others

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19

DR.REDDY'S LABORATORIES LTD. Sensex

KSTREET - 21ST DECEMBER, 2019 3

EQUITY

BEAT THE STREET - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Reliance Industries Limited

The stock is in uptrend and making higher highs and higher low.s The stock is an investor friendly stock and every dip in the stock attracts market participants. The stock has given price breakout around 1575 levels and trading well above the same. The bounce in the stock has seen supportive volume formation on daily charts. Currently, the stock is trading above all its major moving averages on daily charts and is expected to trade in uncharted territory for near term. On technical setup, the 14 period RSI is pointing northward given positive crossover with signal line and trading comfortable above signal line. The parabolic SAR has triggered fresh buy on weekly charts that reflect uptrend in the stock will remain intact in near term. The recent development in the stock suggests that the stock is well placed to take its up move. Hence, we are suggesting buy in the stock around 1575 levels for the target of 1710 levels and above that at 1725 levels with a stop loss placed below 1480 levels and any meaningful dip towards 1530 levels can be used for averaging stock for said target.

Berger Paints India Ltd

The stock is in uptrend and making higher highs and higher lows on monthly charts. The historical price action in the stock reflects that any meaningful dip in the stock attracts market participants which helps stock to resume its up move. The stock has seen profit taking from all time high of around 533.75 levels which has placed the stock near its support of around 466 levels. Thereafter, the stock has bounced well with supportive volume formation on daily charts and this indicates strength in up move. The bounce in the stock has seen supportive volume formation on daily charts. The stock is trading above all its major moving averages on daily charts which confirm our bullish view in the stock. On technical setup, the 14 period RSI is pointing northward given positive crossover with signal line and trading comfortable above signal line on weekly charts. The parabolic SAR is trading below its price action on daily charts that reflects uptrend in the stock will remain intact in near term. The recent development in the stock suggests that the stock is well placed to take its up move.

STOCK RELIANCE

CMP 1599

ENTRY 1575

AVERAGE 1530

STOP LOSS 1480

TARGET 1 1710

TARGET 2 1725

TIME FRAME 1 MONTH

STOCK BERGEPAINT

CMP 507

ENTRY 500

AVERAGE 470

STOP LOSS 540

TARGET 1 545

TARGET 2 485

TIME FRAME 2 WEEKS

KSTREET - 21ST DECEMBER, 2019 4

EQUITY

SECTORAL SNIPPETS

NIFTY AUTO has underperformed the Nifty 50 index on week to week basis but ended the week on a positive note of around 0.74%. After taking a breather from its continuous fall, the stock again witnessed a sharp rally in the last week and the surge was being supported by increase in average traded volumes indicating strength in the overall counter. Rise in major heavyweights contributed to the bounce for the previous week. On weekly chart, the index has bounced from the retracement of 31.80% from the swing low of 6744 to the highs of 8500 levels and has headed towards its recent high. On charts, the immediate support for the index is pegged around 7850-7860 level breaching, below which the next support could be seen around 8000 levels. While on the contrary, the resistance is pegged around 8250-8300 levels which is the recent swing high, followed by 8400-8500 zone which is the next crucial resistance levels for the index. On oscillator front, the index has witnessed sharp bounce from the lower band of the Bollinger (20, 2) to the mean and is currently hovering near the upper band, at the same time the band is getting narrower indicating a higher probability of index to continue the consolidation movement in near future, this is further being supported by the 14 period RSI which is placed around 52-55 levels and closed above the signal line on weekly chart suggesting inherent strength at lower levels in the counter. Going forward for the coming week, it is advisable to trade cautiously in the counter as stock specific action could be seen ahead of monthly sales data.

NIFTY IT has seen an outperformance to the broader index Nifty 50 and settled the last week on a positive note with a massive gain of over 4% during the same period. On the broader time frame, the index was struggling in the range of 14500 to 16000 over last two months and now the index has witnessed a breakout which was being supported by increase in average traded volumes indicating strength in the consolidation range breakout. At current juncture, the index is trading well above all its major moving averages on daily chart indicating overall strength in the index. Breakouts in major stock have helped the index to surpass the range bound movement. Technically, the index has now formed higher highs & higher lows for last few sessions indicating strong hands are accumulating the stock at lower levels. The index has surpassed the cluster of its major moving averages that adds the bullish biasness. Among the gainers, Midcap and Large cap IT stocks have managed to outperform the index while some have slipped during the same period. Technically, the index has witnessed sharp rise from the mean of the Bollinger (20, 2) to the higher band and has currently bounced from the same towards the higher band, at the same time the band is witnessing expansion indicating a higher probability of index to continue the bullish movement in near future, this is further being supported by the 14 period RSI which is placed around 48-56 levels and bounced from the signal line on weekly chart suggesting further positive momentum to continue in the index. For now, supports may be assumed at 15400 and below at 15200 levels while resistance may be at assumed at 16000 and above it at 16100 levels.

NIFTY BANK underperformed Nifty with a gain of 1.16% during the week passed by while the broader index Nifty gained by 1.53%. During the last two weeks, the index moved with a renewed buying and bounced off the 30996 levels. Technically, the index is trading with a bullish bias forming higher highs and higher lows as seen on the daily charts. It is currently trading at all-time highs in the uncharted territory and may maintain its bullish bias until it holds its previous swing support around 32120 levels. In a recent development, the Supreme Court asked RBI not to make public any inspection reports, risk assessment reports and financial inspection reports of banks, including the State Bank of India under the Right to Information Act until further orders. The ruling came on an application filed by banks, which said such information cannot be shared without first giving them an opportunity to oppose it. The top court had mandated the RBI in 2015 to release such information to RTI applicants or risk contempt of court. RTI applications have been piling up at the RBI ever since the court ruled that the banking regulator must reveal all information under RTI, except those excluded by law. On the stock front, YESBANK closed in green with a gain of 8.79% respectively during the week while AXISBANK and BANKBARODA lost by 1.73% and 1.18%. As indicated by the derivatives data, BankNifty may face resistance at 32500 followed by 33000 levels. For the week ahead, support for the index can be pegged at 32200 followed by 32000 levels.

NIFTY FMCG has underperformed Nifty significantly last week and closed the week with a negative return of 0.26% whereas, Nifty has closed the week with a positive return of around 1.50%. The index is trading near 200 DEMA on daily charts in the range of 30000 – 30520 levels from a couple of trading sessions. The move from the said trading range will act as a fresh trigger for the index. The index has been trading under pressure from the high of 32645 levels. The fall in the index has placed the index near its support range of 30000- 30050 levels. The index has been under the consolidation range of with supportive volume formation on daily charts. The stock which has closed the week in green are Britannia, Godrejcp, Hindunilvr and Marico. On the contrary, the stocks which have closed the week in red are Dabur and Jublfood. On the momentum oscillator front, the 14-period RSI has is above the 9-period signal line on the daily chart, indicating comfortable trade in the index. Going ahead, the index is expected to find support around 29950 and below that at 29750 levels. Whereas, immediate resistance is placed at 30700 levels and above that at 30900 levels. The index is expected to maintain it’s up move in near term as short term bottom is placed and looking attractive at these levels for the market participants. Hence, the range for the index is placed for the week at 29750- 30900 levels. We hold our sideways view for the index for near term.

WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

NIFTY (12271.8): Indian equity benchmark index Nifty 50 closed higher by 1.53% during the week. During the last two weeks, the index moved with a renewed buying and bounced off the 11832 levels. Technically, the index is trading with a bullish bias forming higher highs and higher lows as seen on the daily charts. It is currently trading at all-time highs in the uncharted territory and may maintain its bullish bias until it holds its previous swing support around 12160-12150 levels. Indian equities during the week joined the global rally on renewed optimism over the trade deal between the US and China. Positive global sentiments supported by easing trade war tensions between the US and China continue to lift the market. In the week ahead, markets to remain closed on December 25th on account of Christmas while the markets are likely to trade with thin volumes due to Christmas Eve holidays in the West. On the derivatives front, open interest data suggests that the index may find its supports around 12200 followed by 12000 levels while on the higher side, 12400 and 12500 levels may act as strong resistance.

KSTREET - 21ST DECEMBER, 2019 5

COMMODITIES

BULLION

The global precious metals market had witnessed a choppy trend during the week ended on December 20th, 2019 wherein CME gold futures traded in a narrow range of $1474.55 - $1485.65 per troy ounce while silver futures in the thin range of $16.94 - $17.18 per troy ounce in absence of major triggers for the market. Strong performance of the global equity market had kept the bullion market in range bound trend. Further, there were concerns about the Phase One of trade deal even after Trump signing of trade deal with China in the previous week. During the week, the main event took place was the impeachment of US President by House of Representatives over misuse of power connected to Ukraine scandal. This impeachment would result into delay in further process of trade deal with US. During the week, major economic releases were US manufacturing and services PMI, which came at 52.5 vs. 52.6 and 52.2 vs. 51.6 respectively. The US housing market witnessed lesser growth in the month of November with building permits increasing by 1.4% vs. 5.0% and housing rising by 3.2% vs. 4.5%. On domestic front, MCX gold and silver futures witnessed an upside movement triggered by depreciation of Indian Rupee against US Dollar. MCX gold futures crossed Rs. 38000 per 10 grams while silver futures rose near to Rs. 45000 per kg. Indian government is mulling for introduction of gold policy to streamline gold trading and imports into the country.

BASE METALS

The prices of most metals rose higher during the week wherein copper outperformed the base metals segments touching a seven-month high on Friday and maintained a fifth consecutive weekly gains in the prices after a US-China trade deal cool off the concerns about the health of the global economy. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the US and China would sign their phase one pact in early January. The US House of Representatives overwhelmingly approved a new North American deal that leaves $1.2 Tn in annual US-Mexico-Canada trade flows largely intact. On the other hand, China kept its lending benchmark rate unchanged but markets expect further monetary easing in 2020 to arrest an economic slowdown in country. Separately, copper open interest (OI) has increased notably across each of the three main exchanges (LME/Comex/SHFE) and is in aggregate up by around 1.3 million tonnes over the past month. Indonesia is set to stop nickel ore exports in January to boost its domestic mineral processing. Nickel ore exports from top exporter Indonesia are estimated at around 26.7 million tonnes for this year, compared to the 30.83 million tonnes export quota.

ENERGY

Crude oil prices held steady near three-month highs on the back of easing China-US trade tensions that have weighed on demand as well as the global economic growth outlook. China on Thursday unveiled a new list of import tariff exemptions for six chemical and oil products from the US, days after the world’s two largest economies announced a Phase 1 trade deal. The exemptions will be for one year from December 26th without providing a value for the imports excluded from duties. UBS lifted its oil price forecast for 2020 but also expects the oil market to be oversupplied by 0.3 million barrels per day next year. Hedge fund managers piled back into petroleum last week after Saudi Arabia and its allies in the OPEC+ group of major oil exporters announced deeper-than-expected cuts to their production in the first quarter of 2020. As per the fundamentals, fund managers’s confidence boosted as the global economy is expected to avoid a recession and OPEC+ will cut output enough to avert a build up in inventories next year. Thus, as a result is that hedge funds are gradually loading up on petroleum derivatives, buying a total of 338 million barrels over the last nine weeks, in anticipation of a tighter market and higher prices in 2020.

COTTON

Indian cotton market continued to witness range bound trend during the week ended on December 20th, 2019 in absence of major trade participation from end users. The spinners are postponing bulk purchase of cotton in anticipation of prices falling below Rs. 19000 per bale. Cotton Corporation of India has been purchasing cotton in major producing states. All India cotton arrivals is standing at 72,30,297 candies as on December 13th, 2019 as reported by Cotton Corporation of India. On global front, ICE cotton futures are heading for fourth weekly gains in the week to December 20th, 2019 on expectation of increase in purchase by China. Since US and China agreed for Phase One of trade deal with condition of reduction of tariff by US on Chinese goods and China agreeing to double import of agriculture goods in next two years.

OIL & OILSEEDS

The Indian oil and oilseeds complex had witnessed an uninterrupted rally during the week ended on December 20th, 2019 on follow-through buying supported by strong fundamental factors. NCDEX soybean futures surged to all time high of Rs. 4376 per quintal while refined soy oil futures rallied to all time high of Rs. 911.60 per 10 kg. Limited supply of the fresh produce due to smaller crop size in the current season and emerging export demand for soy meal has been pushing the soybean market. All India supply of soybean reduced to 4-5 lakh bags against normal arrival 7-8 lakh bags, which is creating supply shortage. Expectation of decline in import of soy oil from Argentina following a draft policy to increase the export tax and impose tariff on goods held in other countries has been supporting the soy oil futures. CBOT soybean and soy oil futures rose to three week high on hopes of increased export to China after signing of trade deal between US and China. Mustard seed futures also surged to four-year high of Rs. 4625 per quintal supported by lagging sowing data.

6KSTREET - 21ST DECEMBER, 2019

COMMODITIES

GOLD

TRENDSHEET

Commodities 13-Dec 20-Dec % Change 52 Week High% Change from 52

Week High52 Week Low

% Change from 52 Week Low

MCX Gold (Rs/10 gms) 37773.00 38066.00 0.8% 39885.00 -4.6% 31002.00 22.8%

MCX Silver (Rs/Kg) 44126.00 44862.00 1.7% 50672.00 -11.5% 35826.00 25.2%

MCX Crude Oil (Rs/bbl) 4241.00 4345.00 2.5% 4692.00 -7.4% 2993.00 45.2%

MCX Natural Gas (Rs/mmBtu) 162.80 165.80 1.8% 276.80 -40.1% 144.60 14.7%

MCX Copper (Rs/kg) 440.00 443.60 0.8% 468.65 -5.3% 397.40 11.6%

MCX Lead (Rs/kg) 152.25 153.20 0.6% 169.90 -9.8% 123.80 23.7%

MCX Zinc (Rs/kg) 181.60 183.30 0.9% 233.65 -21.5% 167.20 9.6%

MCX Nickel (Rs/kg) 1032.60 1045.30 1.2% 1314.80 -20.5% 735.00 42.2%

MCX Aluminium (Rs/kg) 132.95 134.45 1.1% 158.25 -15.0% 124.75 7.8%

NCDEX Soybean (Rs/Quintal) 4202.00 4350.00 3.5% 4374.00 -0.5% 3312.00 31.3%

NCDEX Refined Soy Oil (Rs/10 kg) 864.60 887.40 2.6% 887.60 0.0% 715.55 24.0%

NCDEX RM Seed (Rs/Quintal) 4461.00 4523.00 1.4% 4680.00 -3.4% 3711.00 21.9%

MCX CPO (Rs/10 kg) 723.30 739.00 2.2% 744.00 -0.7% 491.30 50.4%

NCDEX Castor Seed (Rs/Quintal) 4232.00 4350.00 2.8% 6102.00 -28.7% 3956.00 10.0%

NCDEX Turmeric (Rs/Quintal) 6182.00 6050.00 -2.1% 7360.00 -17.8% 5556.00 8.9%

NCDEX Jeera (Rs/Quintal) 15900.00 15900.00 0.0% 18200.00 -12.6% 15140.00 5.0%

NCDEX Dhaniya (Rs/Quintal) 7007.00 6900.00 -1.5% 7688.00 -10.2% 5267.00 31.0%

MCX Cardamom (Rs/kg) 3051.10 3260.00 6.8% 4265.30 -23.6% 1441.00 126.2%

NCDEX Wheat (Rs/Quintal) 2143.00 2148.00 0.2% 2190.00 -1.9% 1770.00 21.4%

NCDEX Guar Seed (Rs/Quintal) 3918.00 4126.00 5.3% 4508.00 -8.5% 3731.00 10.6%

NCDEX Guar Gum (Rs/Quintal) 7109.00 7500.00 5.5% 9138.00 -17.9% 7002.00 7.1%

MCX Cotton (Rs/Bale) 19180.00 19170.00 -0.1% 22540.00 -15.0% 18460.00 3.8%

NCDEX Cocud (Rs/Quintal) 2053.00 2134.00 3.9% 3698.00 -42.3% 1807.00 18.1%

MCX Mentha Oil (Rs/kg) 1307.40 1286.50 -1.6% 1748.00 -26.40% 1176.00 9.4%

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

CRUDE OIL

ZINC

As on December 12th, 2019, gold February 2020 contract delivery futures are trading around Rs. 38050/10 grams. Prices have breached the daily EMA support levels of 38000/37800 levels, in additional to this, prices are witnessing moving averages bullish crossover. The daily RSI-14 is trading around 53, which has a potential to move higher. Overall bullish trend is in progress and we recommend building long positions from lower levels. Recommendations: Gold Feb MCX: Buy at 38000-38010 TP 38450 SL 37750

As on December 12th, 2019, crude oil January 2020 contract delivery futures are trading around Rs. 4350/barrel. Prices have breached the daily EMA support levels of 4300/4220 levels, in additional to this, prices are witnessing moving averages bullish crossover. The daily RSI-14 is trading around 56, which has a potential to move higher. Overall bullish trend is in progress and we recommend building long positions from lower levels. Recommendations: Crude Oil January MCX: Buy at 4280-4300 TP 4500 SL 4200

As on December 12th, 2019, zinc December contract delivery futures are trading around Rs. 183.50/kg. Since last several weeks, prices are moving lower after making high of Rs. 196.10/Kg in the beginning of the November 2019. Now the momentum indicators are trading near the oversold zone and daily RSI-14 is below the 30 mark. Prices have deviated 5-6% from the daily 18, 13 moving averages resistance levels. Thus, technical rebound is expected and we recommend building long positions from lower levels.Recommendation: Buy at 182-182.50 TP 186 SL 179

7KSTREET - 21ST DECEMBER, 2019

COMMODITIES

MCX CRUDE - PRICE, VOLUME & OPEN INTEREST MCX NATURAL GAS – PRICE, VOLUME & OPEN INTEREST

CALENDAR SPREAD NYMEX - CRUDE OIL CALENDAR SPREAD NYMEX – NATURAL GAS

NEWS DIGEST

• Gold inched lower on Friday as demand for riskier assets improved on optimism that the bitter US-China trade war will be resolved soon while investors awaited US GDP data for more cues on the health of the economy.

• China, the world’s top bullion producer and consumer, launched its first gold options contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on Friday, adding to an array of investment options for the yellow metal that saw prices hit six-year high this year. The Trump administration on Thursday renewed a waiver for companies to wind down transactions with the Dalian unit of a Chinese tanker company on which it had imposed sanctions in September for allegedly transporting Iranian oil.

• The Trump administration finalized US biofuel blending requirements for 2020 on Thursday leaving a key part of the rule unchanged from an earlier proposal that the corn lobby had criticized as inadequate to help struggling farmers.

• Asian spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) for cargoes delivered in February slipped this week amid ample supply but losses were limited as Indian companies sought cargoes to meet spot requirements.

• Copper prices touched a seven-month high on Friday and were set for a fifth consecutive weekly gain after a US-China trade deal dispelled some concerns about the health of the global economy. China kept its lending benchmark rate unchanged but markets expect further monetary easing in 2020 to arrest an economic slowdown in the world’s biggest metals consumer.

• As per International Copper Study Group (ICSG), global world refined copper market showed a 81,000 tonnes deficit in September, compared to a 37,000 tonnes surplus in August.

-0.14

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6-Dec 8-Dec 10-Dec 12-Dec 14-Dec 16-Dec 18-Dec

$/B

BL

-0.035

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-0.01

-0.005

0

0.005

4-Dec 5-Dec 6-Dec 9-Dec 10-Dec 11-Dec 12-Dec 13-Dec 16-Dec 17-Dec 18-Dec 19-Dec

$/M

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tu

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0

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10-Dec 12-Dec 16-Dec 18-Dec

Open Interest Volume Price (INR/MMBTU)

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Volume Open Interest Price (INR/Bbl)

8KSTREET - 21ST DECEMBER, 2019

COMMODITIES

FUTURE PRICES (% CHANGE)

LME WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)

Commodity Previous week This week Change % Change

Copper 167475 154450 -13025 -7.78%

Zinc 55275 52800 -2475 -4.48%

Aluminium 1403075 1486550 83475 5.95%

Lead 67275 67175 -100 -0.15%

Nickel 124158 140412 16254 13.09%

SHANGHAI WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)*

Commodity Previous week This week Change % Change

Copper 117245 129069 11824 10.08%

Zinc 33844 32641 -1203 -3.55%

Aluminium 218367 193820 -24547 -11.24%

*Until Wednesday, (Chinese market was closed last week)

GLOBAL STOCK POSITION (IN TONS)

COMEX WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)

Commodity Previous week This week Change % Change

Copper 40111 39977 -134 -0.33%

PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (IN US $)

Commodity Exchange Contract 13-Dec 20-Dec % change

Aluminium LME 3M 1764.50 1800.00 2.01%

Copper LME 3M 6143.00 6218.00 1.22%

Lead LME 3M 1907.00 1915.00 0.42%

Nickel LME 3M 14215.00 14200.00 -0.11%

Zinc LME 3M 2257.00 2329.00 3.19%

Gold CME Dec 1474.30 1476.30 0.14%

Silver CME Dec 16.89 17.08 1.10%

WTI Crude oil CME Dec 59.78 61.30 2.54%

Natural Gas CME Dec 2.31 2.29 -0.78%

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

Commodity Exchange Contract 13-Dec 20-Dec % change

Soybean CBOT Dec 935.25 950.50 1.63%

Soy oil CBOT Dec 30.94 30.94 0.00%

CPO BMD Jan 2853.00 2914.00 2.14%

Cotton ICE Dec 64.06 64.06 0.00%

PROGRESS OF SOWING OF RABI (2019-20) OILSEED CROP AS ON 12TH DECEMBER, 2019

-2.1%

-1.6%

-1.5%

-0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.6%

0.8%

1.1%

0.8%

0.9%

1.1%

1.4%

1.7%

1.9%

2.2%

2.5%

2.6%

2.8%

3.5%

3.9%

5.3%

5.5%

6.8%

Turmeric

Mentha Oil

Dhaniya

Cotton

Jeera

Barley

Wheat

Lead

Gold

Nickel

Copper

Zinc

Aluminum

RM Seed

Silver

Natural Gas

CPO

Crude Oil

Soy Oil

Castor Seed

Soybean

Cotton Seed Oil Cake

Guar Seed

Guar Gum

Cardamom

9KSTREET - 21ST DECEMBER, 2019

USD/INR

USDINR traded positive during the week, it made a high of 71.22 and low of 70.75. The RSI is at 53.26. Moving average of 50 is at 70.36. The trend is looking sideways for the week. Hence, we recommend buying at 70.80 TP 71.60 SL 70.50

EUR/INR

EURINR traded positive during the week, it made a high of 79.25 and low of 78.70. The RSI is trading at 51.29. Moving average of 50 is at 78.89. The trend is looking positive for the week. Hence, we recommend buying at 78.50 TP 79.50 SL 78.00.

GBP/INR

GBPINR traded negative during the week, it made a high of 95.23 and low of 92.48. The RSI is trading at 58.59. Moving average of 50 is at 89.82. The trend is looking negative for the week. Hence, we recommend selling at 93.00 TP 92.00 SL 93.50.

JPY/INR

JPYINR traded positive during the week, it made a high of 65.16 and low of 64.63. The RSI is at 48.64. Moving average of 50 is at 65.02. The trend is looking positive for the week. Hence, we recommend buying at 65.00 TP 66.00 SL 64.50

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONMARKET STANCE

USD/INR ended at 71.12 after hitting weekly high of 71.25 and low of 70.76. Nifty managed to record another closing high on December 20th ahead of RBI’s open market operation of Rs. 10,000 crore on December 23rd to bridge the liquidity gap. BSE Sensex rose 7 points to close at 41,681 while Nifty 50 ended 12 points higher to close at 12,271 today. Japan December factory activity shrinks for 8 month, output slump worsens. India’s foreign exchange reserves surged by $2.342 Bn to touch a life-time high of $453.422 Bn in the week to December 6th. India’s exports contracted marginally by 0.34% in November to $25.98 Bn while imports slowed to $38.11 Bn, bringing down the trade deficit to $12.12 Bn. Pound weakness continues amid rising Hard Brexit fears following UK PM Johnson’s confirmation to Parliament that the government planned legislation to ensure that the UK’s post-Brexit transition period would end in December 2020. Australian Dollar fell after the central bank opened the door to another cut in interest rates as early as February. IMF likely to downgrade India’s growth forecast significantly in January. Now, Pound has lost all of its election gains on fears that Britain could leave the EU without a trade deal. German business morale rose more than expected in December in a further sign that a manufacturing crisis in Europe’s largest economy could be bottoming out after overall output shrank earlier in the year. The Ifo institute said its business climate index rose to 96.3 in December from an upwardly revised 95.1 in November. USD/INR likely to find support at 70.80 and resistance at 71.30 in the near term.

NEWS FLOWS OF LAST WEEK

• Nifty managed to record another closing high on December 20th ahead of RBI’s open market operation of Rs. 10,000 crore on December 23rd to bridge the liquidity gap.

• Japan December factory activity shrinks for 8 month, output slump worsens.

• India’s foreign exchange reserves surged by $2.342 Bn to touch a life-time high of $453.422 Bn in the week to December 6th.

• IMF likely to downgrade India’s growth forecast significantly in January.• Now, Pound has lost all of its election gains on fears that Britain could

leave the EU without a trade deal.• German business morale rose more than expected in December in a

further sign that a manufacturing crisis in Europe’s largest economy could be bottoming out after overall output shrank earlier in the year.

• India’s exports contracted marginally by 0.34% in November to $25.98 Bn while imports slowed to $38.11 Bn, bringing down the trade deficit to $12.12 Bn.

CURRENCY

CURRENCY TABLE

Currency Pair Open High Low Close

USDINR 70.75 71.22 70.75 71.11

EURINR 78.74 79.25 78.70 78.89

GBPINR 94.78 95.23 92.48 92.65

JPYINR 64.67 65.16 64.63 65.02

10KSTREET - 21ST DECEMBER, 2019

ECONOMIC GAUGE FOR THE NEXT WEEK

Local Start Date Local Time Country Relevance Indicator Name Period Reuters Poll Prior Unit

23 Dec 2019 18:00 United States High Durable Goods Nov 1.4% 0.5% Percent

23 Dec 2019 18:00 United States Medium Durables Ex-Transport Nov 0.2% 0.5% Percent

23 Dec 2019 18:00 United States Low Durables Ex-Defense MM Nov 0.0% Percent

23 Dec 2019 18:00 United States Low Nondefe Cap Ex-Air Nov 1.1% Percent

23 Dec 2019 18:30 United States Low Build Permits R Numb Nov 1.482M Number of

23 Dec 2019 18:30 United States Low Build Permits R Chg MM Nov 1.4% Percent

23 Dec 2019 19:00 United States Low National Activity Index Nov -0.71 Index

23 Dec 2019 20:30 United States High New Home Sales-Units Nov 0.735M 0.733M Number of

23 Dec 2019 20:30 United States Low New Home Sales Chg MM Nov 0.3% -0.7% Percent

24 Dec 2019 19:25 United States Low Redbook MM 21 Dec, w/e -3.8% Percent

24 Dec 2019 19:25 United States Low Redbook YY 21 Dec, w/e 4.6% Percent

24 Dec 2019 20:30 United States Low Rich Fed Comp. Index Dec -1 Index

24 Dec 2019 20:30 United States Low Rich Fed, Services Index Dec 15 Index

24 Dec 2019 20:30 United States Low Rich Fed Mfg Shipments Dec -2 Index

26 Dec 2019 17:30 United States Low MBA Mortgage Applications 20 Dec, w/e -5.0% Percent

26 Dec 2019 17:30 United States Low Mortgage Market Index 20 Dec, w/e 505.3 Index

26 Dec 2019 17:30 United States Low MBA Purchase Index 20 Dec, w/e 262.6 Index

26 Dec 2019 17:30 United States Low Mortgage Refinance Index 20 Dec, w/e 1,958.7 Index

26 Dec 2019 17:30 United States Low MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate 20 Dec, w/e 3.98% Percent

26 Dec 2019 19:00 United States High Initial Jobless Claims 16 Dec, w/e 220k 234k Person

26 Dec 2019 19:00 United States Low Jobless Claims 4-Wk Avg 16 Dec, w/e 225.50k Person

26 Dec 2019 19:00 United States Medium Continued Jobless Claims 9 Dec, w/e 1.722M Person

CURRENCY

11KSTREET - 21ST DECEMBER, 2019