Rosenzweig c 20150708_1500_upmc_jussieu_-_amphi_25

Transdisciplinary and Multi-scale Agricultural Projections

of Climate Change Impacts

Cynthia Rosenzweig

NASA GISS

Our Common Future Under Climate Change Conference

Paris, July 8, 2015

India USA Kenya Sri Lanka

• Overview of AgMIP

• Lessons Learned

-- Crops, Sites, and Processes

-- Regional Integrated Assessments

-- Global Crops and Economics

• Ways Forward

-- Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments

,

Outline

AgMIP Mission

3

Near Arusha, Tanzania

Provide effective science-based agricultural

decision-making models and assessments of climate

variability and change and sustainable farming systems to achieve

local-to-global food security

4

Worldwide Science Community

2nd Global Oct 2011 1st Global Oct 2010

Sub-Saharan Africa #3 South Asia #3

3rd Global Oct 2012

4th Global Oct 2013 5th Global Feb 2015

Partnerships

5 Some of the many partners and donor institutions involved in AgMIP

Phase 2 (2015-2020) Science Approach

6

Rosenzweig et al., 2013 AgForMet

Multi-model assessments

Track 1: Develop/Test NextGen Agricultural Systems Models

Track 2: Conduct Multi-Model Assessments for Sustainable

Farming Systems and Climate-Smart Agriculture

AgMIP Sentinel Sites

Platinum

Gold

Silver

Current and Prospective Activities

7

GEOGLAM

Sustainable Nutrition

Security

Ozone

Natural Resources &

Ecosystems

Statistical & Dynamic

Approaches

AgMIP Teams and

Activities

• Co-Leaders

• Written Plan with

Goals and Research

Questions

• Protocols

• External Science

Advisors

• Review & Attribution

• Budget & Funding

Strategy

• Quality Assurance

• Documentation of

Model Improvement

• Publications

Current

In Development

Coordinated Global & Regional Assessments

Key Components

8

AgMIP Teams and

Activities

• Co-Leaders

• Written Plan with

Short and Long-

Term Goals

• Protocols

• External Science

Advisors

• Review & Attribution

• Budget & Funding

Strategy

• Quality Assurance

• Documentation of

Model Improvement

Current

In Development

GEOGLAM

Sustainable Nutrition

Security

Ozone

Natural Resources &

Ecosystems

Statistical & Dynamic

Approaches

Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems

Just published

Crops, Sites, and Processes

,

K. J. Boote and P. J. Thorburn

Wheat, Maize, Rice, Sugarcane, Potato, Sorghum,

Peanut, Soil, Bioenergy, Water-ET Teams

0˚ 90˚ -90˚

-45˚

AgMIP Sentinel Sites

= Wheat

= Maize

= Rice

= Sugarcane

0˚

45˚

Shizukuishi

Nanjing

Morogoro

Wongan Hills

Balcarce

North America

Ames South

Asia

Delh

i

Ludhiana

Ayr

Los Baños

Piracicaba

Rio Verde

La Mercy

Haarweg

Lusignan

South

America

Sub-Saharan

Africa

Europe

Asia*

Australia*

• Wheat, maize, rice, sugarcane, millet/sorghum, groundnut, potato, canola, grassland/pastures, soils and crop rotations; bioenergy; crop water/ET Teams

• Sentinel site experiment data, sensitivity tests • Focus on uncertainty, processes, and model improvement

Crop Model Intercomparison and Improvement Studies

K. J. Boote and P. J. Thorburn

Crop Modeling Leaders Rosenzweig et al., 2013

Ensemble of

models predicted

yields accurately

True under poorly

and well calibrated

conditions

Most individual

models did not

predict all sites

well across varying

environments

1

2

Asseng et al. 2013

Nature Climate Change

Ensembles better than individual

models

27 wheat models

13

Number of models needed

may be relatively small

13 rice models

Li et al., 2015 Global Change Biology

~5-10 models needed to replicate observations across sites

No major difference in CO2 responsiveness associated

with photosynthesis method

Large variation in response at high levels of CO2

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13 rice models

Positive response to CO2

key source of uncertainty

Li et al., 2015 Global Change Biology

Regional Integrated Assessments

,

John Antle, Jim Jones, Alex Ruane,

Roberto Valdivia

Regional Research Teams

AgMIP

Regional Research Teams

16

5-year project, UK DFID funded 8 regional teams, 18 countries, ~200 scientists Protocols for data, models, scenarios designed and implemented by multi-disciplinary teams

and stakeholders

Rosenzweig and Hillel (Eds) Handbook of Climate Change and

Agroecosystems Imperial College Press, 2015

Pretoria, South

Africa 2013

Katmandu, Nepal, 2013

17

• Farming systems

• Transdisciplinary:

biophysical/

socio-economic

• Multi-scale:

field, farm, region,

global data and

models

• Multiple climate and

crop models

• Distributional results:

impacts on poverty

AgMIP Regional Integrated

Assessment – 5 Attributes

Antle et al., 2015

18

Yield or

value

time current future

Q1

Q3 Q2

Yield or

value

time current future

Q1

Q3

Q2

RAPS

Q1) What is the sensitivity of current agricultural production systems to

climate change?

Q2) What is the impact of climate change on future agricultural production

systems?

Q3) What are the benefits of climate change adaptations?

3 Core Questions

RAPS

Negative climate change effects Positive climate change effects

Antle et al., 2015

West Africa

Crop Model Results

Simulated variability in millet

yields with DSSAT and APSIM

crop models, for current base

technology (BT)

compared to adapted

future changed technology (CT)

under 5 CMIP5 GCM climate

change scenarios for Nioro,

Senegal and Navrongo, Ghana

Adiku et al., 2015

APSIM tended to be more

positive than DSSAT in both

baseline and future climate

Phase 2: Determine why and

institute model improvements

West Africa

Climate Change Impacts

20

Adaptation

packages can

raise incomes

and lower

poverty rates,

but do not

always

compensate

crop yield

losses

completely

Adiku et al., 2015

Global Crops and Economics

,

Joshua Elliott, Christophe Mueller, Keith

Weibe, and Hermann Lotze-Campen

And Global Gridded Crop Model Initiative and

Global Economics Teams

─ Lower latitudes are more vulnerable to climate change

─ [CO2] effects key to understanding future impacts and uncertainty

─ Models that incorporate realistic nitrogen see significantly less

gains from [CO2] effects at present-day fertilizer levels 2

2

Global agricultural productivity

End-of-century (2070-

2099) climate impact.

Median of 7 GGCMs

and 5 GCMs. Hatched

areas indicate model

agreement in sign

Rosenzweig et al., 2014 PNAS 111(9): 3268-3273

Uncertainty Cascade

23

Effects of climate change on agricultural prices

(S3-S6 results in 2050 relative to results without climate change in 2050)

AgMIP Global

Economic s Model

Intercomparison

10 Global Economics

Models, 2 GCMs,

2 crop models

Von Lampe et al.,

Agricultural

Economics,

2013

Climate change is projected to exert upward pressure on agricultural

prices, but with large uncertainty that is being connected to model

approaches

S3 S4 S5 S6

GCMs

GGCMs

Model uncertainty

GEM > GGCM > GCM

Ways Forward

,

3 Focus Areas

25

Coordinated Global and Regional

Multi-Model Assessments

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RRTs – Farming systems

biophysical and

socioeconomic models

GGCMI -- High-resolution

gridded crop modeling for gap-

filling and aggregation in each

region

Global Economics –

Model analysis of

world and regional

prices

Production systems and

regional economics

respond to price changes

RCPs

SSPs

RAPs

Key Points

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• Uncertainty cascade shows that focus on improving

rigor of impact assessments is highly warranted.

• Crops, livestock, sites, and processes are important to

full understanding and credibility of global simulations.

• Regional integrated assessments of farming systems

are needed to identify vulnerable groups and regions.

• At the global scale, ‘pre-assessment’ validation is

essential to advance the capability of crop and

economic models.

• Building blocks and community are now in place for

coordinated global and regional assessments for food

security.

• AgMIP Phase 2 Fundamentals

Workshop, Victoria Falls,

Zimbabwe, Jun 24-30, 2015

• AGCI AgMIP Coordinated

Global & Regional

Assessments Workshop,

Aspen, Sep 13-18, 2015

• 6th AgMIP Global Workshop,

TBC, Spring 2016

Workshop Highlights

For protocols, up-to-date events and news,

and to join AgMIP listserve* – www.agmip.org

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