Rockliffe 11

Socio-economic foundation to asset preservation and maintenance

Nigel RockliffeArif Wismadi

2

Objective

1. A demonstration project ‘to develop... [PPB] procedures and tools... and to provide and coordinate support in training and disseminating all activities.’

2. A ‘socialisation’ strategy to promote cultural attitudes and norms concerning the importance of maintaining roads.

3. In support of national and regional development objectives.

3

Part 1

Roads in service

4

Roads in service

The Goldilocks principle

5

Hailan Haiwe, PNG

Option 0 (Base)

Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Option 4 Option 54,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

Road agencyRoad user

0 – Minimum1 – High repairs2 – Scheduled seal + high3 – KRGMP pre-emptive 4 – KRGMP pre-emptive + shape5 – Min + structural overlay

2004/Dec 2005/Dec 2006/Dec 2007/Dec 2008/Dec 2009/Dec0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Roug

hnes

s (IR

I)

↙ Slow response

↖ Rapid response

6

Treatment options

1 Minimum repairs 2 Intermediate repairs 3 High repairs 4 Pre-emptive repairs 5 Pre-emptive and periodic 6 Pre-emptive and full menu 7 Business as usual (national) 8 Business as usual (provincial) 9 Pre-emptive and modified full menu

7

Comparing treatment options

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

Repairs only (intermediate) Unconstrained BAU National Unconstrained Full pre-emptive

Unconstrained BAU Provincial

Cost

($m

)

RAC

RUC

• Undertaking major works saves money in the long run.

• Optimal option is ‘Full-pre-emptive’.

Two kinds of efficiency

TTC

RAC

RUC

Cost

Level of service

Technical efficiency

Allocative efficiency

Better ride quality

Where we are now

Where we want to be

• Maximise technical efficiency.

• Maximise allocative efficiency by...

• trading off RUCs and RACs to minimise total transport cost.

• This is the optimal level of service.

9

Roads in service

A stitch in time saves nine

10

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

10 450

10 500

10 550

10 600

10 650

10 700

10 750

2 6 12

Dis

coun

ted

RAC

($ m

illio

ns)

Dis

coun

ted

RUC

and

TTC

($ m

illio

ns)

Response time (months)

RUC

TTC

RAC

It pays to be on time

• Conducting repairs promptly is often win-win.

• Even when it’s win-lose, it’s beneficial overall. So road users can pay for it and still be ahead.

• It reduces costs for road users and the road agency alike.

How routine maintenance affects defects

Area affected by defects (%)

Age of pavement

Poor maintenance

Good maintenance

• Once they start, defects grow explosively.

• Good routine maintenance can delay their onset.

How routine maintenance affects roughness

Roughness

Age of pavement

• As defects grow, roughness rises, which increases

• vehicle operating cost

• travel time

• discomfort.

• Good routine maintenance keeps pavements smoother longer.

Poor maintenance

Good maintenance

All maintenance must be timely

Life-cycle cost

Age of pavement

Routine Periodic

Routine Periodic

Routine Periodic

Routine Periodic

Policy space

• Both routine and periodic maintenance must be on time.

• If either is late, RUC and RAC are higher than they need be.

• Prompt routine maintenance extends road life and requires less frequent periodic maintenance .

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Roads in service

Take-home messages1. Goldilocks shows us that undertaking major works

saves money in the long run. 2. Prompt maintenance is win-win: it reduces costs for

road users and the road agency alike.

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Part 2

Roads in crisis

16

Roads in crisis

A little goes a long way

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The demand for trips

Source: Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS)

Exponent is ‘price elasticity of demand’ and measures

responsiveness of travel to changes in price. ↓

↙ Distance is a proxy for price.

• Demand is relatively inelastic (– 0.46), typical of a ‘necessary’ good like healthcare.

• ‘Discretionary’ trips, such as VFR, are expected to be far more price-elastic.

y = 19.973x-0.46

R² = 0.5943

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Dis

tanc

e (k

m)

Demand (trips/million population)

Exponent is ‘price elasticity of demand’ and measures responsiveness of travel to changes in price. ↓

↙ Distance is a proxy for price.

• Demand for Puskesmas trips is relatively inelastic (–0.5), typical of a ‘necessary’ good like healthcare.

• ‘Discretionary’ trips, such as VFR, are expected to be far more price-elastic.

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Benefit

Social benefit

Outcomes

Health• Morbidity• Mortality• Life expectancy

Education• Attendance• Attainment

Income • Poverty rate• Surat k. miskin

Other

Inputs, outputs, outcomes and benefit

Outputs

‘Consumption’ of trips

Demand curve

Distance to destination

Road condition

‘Price’ of trip

Inputs

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The social benefit of trips

Price

Trips per person

Partial access

Full access

No motorable access

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No motorable

access

Partial access (95% of time)

A little maintenance goes a long way

Benefit

Cost

Marginal benefit

Total benefit

Partial access (99% of time)

Full access

21

Roads in crisis

Roads are good for people

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Poor roads are linked to poverty...

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Sealed Unsealed Earth

Hou

seho

lds

in p

over

ty (%

)

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

Sealed Unsealed Earth

Hou

seho

lds

rece

ivin

g su

rat

kete

rang

an m

iski

n(%

/y)

Sealed roads are associated with

← fewer households in poverty...

↓ and fewer surat keterangan miskin.

But...

• Poverty is not all attributable to road condition; other facilities must change too.

• Causality is not one-way: the poor may lack good roads for other reasons.

Source: Potensi Desa (Podes)

23

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Sealed Unsealed Earth

Mor

talit

y (d

eath

s/10

0 00

0 hh

ld/y

)

... and to poor health

0

5

10

15

20

25

Sealed Unsealed Earth

Dis

tanc

e to

nea

rest

Pus

kesm

as (

km)

← Sealed roads are associated with greatly reduced mortality.

But is this because they are nearer to medical

facilities (Puskesmas)?→

Source: Potensi Desa (Podes)

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Roads in crisis

Take-home messages1. A little maintenance goes a long way. Better to go

from ‘no motorable access’ to ‘partial’, than from ‘partial’ to ‘full’.

2. It is important to derive the demand for trips. Social benefit can be calculated, which permits the optimal allocation of resources.

3. There is a link between road condition and wellbeing. The better the road, the better off the community.

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Thank you