RISK MANAGEMENT STEP BY STEP IN CONSTRUCTION SECTOR PROJECTS. IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
RISK MANAGEMENT STEP BY STEP IN CONSTRUCTION SECTOR PROJECTS.
IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
RISK MANAGEMENT OF PROJECTS ACTS ON THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE OBJECTIVE OF
INCREASING THE PROBABILITY AND THE IMPACT OF POSITIVE EVENTS, THE OPPORTUNITIES. AND
REDUCING THE PROBABILITY AND THE IMPACT OF NEGATIVE EVENTS, THE THREATS.
IN OTHER WORDS MANAGING RISKS INCLUDES THE PROCESSES NECESSARY TO CONTROL
PREDICTABLE EVENTS IN FAVOR OF THE PROJECT’S SUCCESS. CERTAIN STEPS ARE IMPORTANT FOR
A SUCCESSFUL RISK MANAGEMENT.
THIS METHODOLOGY IS APPLIED BY INSURANCE COMPANIES WHICH CALCULATE THE EXPECTED
VALUE OF RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH CONTRACTS, IN ORDER TO DETERMINE THE PREMIUM TO BE
PAID BY AN INSURED PARTY. THE ADVANTAGE IN THIS IS THAT, WHEN WE MANAGE OUR OWN RISKS,
WE HAVE THE POWER NOT ONLY TO IDENTIFY AND QUANTIFY THEM, BUT ALSO TO DIRECT THEM IN
FAVOR OF OUR INTERESTS.
THE APPLICATION OF SUCH KNOWLEDGE MAKES DECISION MAKING MORE SAFE, GUIDES ACTIONS
DURING THE PROJECT, INCREASES THE COMPANY’S COMPETITIVENESS, AND TURNS UNCERTAIN
EVENTS INTO PROFIT OPPORTUNITIES.
IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
THE RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESSES IN PROJECTS GUIDE THE PLANNING, IDENTIFICATION,
ANALYSIS, RESPONSE PLANNING, MONITORING AND CONTROL OF RISKS.
THIS METHODLOGY MUST BE APPLIED STEP BY STEP AND HAVE THE COOLABORATION OF AN EXPERT
OPINION IN ORDER TO USE ALL ITS INFLUENCE POWER OVER THE PROJECT.
THE EXPERT OPINION IS APPLIED ON ALL TECHNICAL DETAILS AND MAY BE PROVIDED BY ANY GROUP
OR PERSON WITH SPECIALIZED KNOWLEDGE OR TRAINING, AND IS AVAILABLE THROUGH SEVERAL
DIFFERENT SOURCES
KNOWLEDGE ON THE REGIONAL SCENARIO, METHODOLOGIES FOR PROJECT MANAGEMENT AND
EXPERIENCE IN CIVIL CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS ARE FUNDAMENTAL TO AWAKE THE FACTOR
BEHIND A SUCCESSFUL RISK MANAGEMENT.
KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT VIA A COLLECTION AND DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM FOR THE LESSONS
LEARNED IS DIRECTLY RELATED WITH THE MATURITY OF A COMPANY IN DEALING WITH
UNCERTAINTIES AND EXPLORING THE BENEFITS BY MANIPULATING EVENTS TO YOUR FAVOR.
IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
IDENTIFY RISKS
THE IDENTIFICATION OF RISKS IS THE FIRST STEP TOWARD THE MANAGEMENT OF UNCERTAINTIES, A
LIST OF THREATS AND A LIST OF OPPORTUNITIES MUST BE PREPARED, INDICATING THE ROOT
CAUSE, THE FOCUS OF THE PROBABILITY, AND THE EFFECT OF THE RISK AND THE FOCUS OF THE
IMPACT.
Threats
Cause Effect
High level of outsourcing Low quality and reworks
Parallelism between projects and performance Error on the performance
Labor claims Costs with claims and indemnifications
Low performance of structural inputs need for reinforcement of the structure
Initial services performed by another company Buffer or Gap of scope
Inflation above expectations Increase of price of materials and labor
Competition for labor Increase of costs with labor
Work-related accidents Indemnifications and leaves of absence
Lack of human resource in sufficient number Work behind schedule and increase of the indirect cost
Problems after delivery of the product Provision of warranty
Ignoring risks Lack of influence on the threats
Robbery and/or theft Associated losses
Default Financial Cost
Pending approvals and regularizations Changes
IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
IDENTIFY RISKS
THE IDENTIFICATION OF RISKS IS THE FIRST STEP TOWARD THE MANAGEMENT OF UNCERTAINTIES, A
LIST OF THREATS AND A LIST OF OPPORTUNITIES MUST BE PREPARED, INDICATING THE ROOT
CAUSE, THE FOCUS OF THE PROBABILITY, AND THE EFFECT OF THE RISK AND THE FOCUS OF THE
IMPACT.
Opportunities
Cause Effect
Outsourcing Reduction of charges
Volume of purchases Increase of the power of negotiation
Proximity with city districts that supply the MDO Reduction of cost with transport vouchers
IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
IDENTIFY RISKS
THIS PROCESS IS INTERACTIVE AND CONTINUES TO OCCUR DURING THE ENTIRE LIFE CYCLE OF THE
PROJECT, NEW RISKS MAY BE IDENTIFIED AND RANKED AS THEY ARE NOTICED BY THE TEAM.
FURTHER AHEAD WE SHALL SEE HOW THESE RISKS NOT IDENTIFIED AT THE BEGINNING MAY BE
CONSIDERED FOR THE DETERMINATION OF THE EXPECTED VALUE OF THE RISKS WITHOUT
BURDENING THE INITIAL EXPECTATION UNDER WHICH THE PROJECT WAS APPROVED.
IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE RISKS
THE QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE RISKS CONSISTS OF ASSESSING THE PROBABILITY AND THE
IMPACT OF THE RISKS FOR THE DETERMINATION OF THE LEVEL OF EACH RISK BY THE MULTIPLYING
FACTOR OF PROB. X IMPACT.
LOWER LEVEL RISKS MAY BE CONSIDERED FALSE AND DOCUMENTED, ACCORDING TO THE RISK
TOLERANCE POLICY OF THE COMPANY. MORE RELEVANT RISKS, ON THE OTHER HAND, ARE RANKED
IN ORDER TO GUIDE ITS MANAGEMENT.
Risk Analysis
Context Level of Risk (GR)
0.90
Very
High GR>0.1 TRUE
0.70 High GR<0.1 FALSE
0.50 Medium
0.30 Low
0.10 Very Low
IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE RISKS
THE DEFINITION OF THE LEVELS OF PROBABILITY AND IMPACT REDUCE THE BIAS IN PRIORIZING THE
RISKS AND THEIR ANALYSIS ALLOWS TO ASSESS THE IMPORTANCE OF EACH RISK ON THE PROJECT.
Threats
Number Cause Effect Probab. Impact Level of Risk Validation
1High level of outsourcing Low quality and reworks 0.90 0.50 0.45 TRUE
2Parallelism between projects and performance Error on the performance 0.90 0.30 0.27 TRUE
3Labor claims Costs with claims and indemnifications 0.70 0.30 0.21 TRUE
4Low performance of structural inputs need for reinforcement of the structure 0.50 0.50 0.25 TRUE
5Initial services performed by another company Buffer or Gap of scope 0.50 0.30 0.15 TRUE
6Inflation above expectations Increase of price of materials and labor 0.50 0.70 0.35 TRUE
7Competition for labor Increase of costs with labor 0.70 0.50 0.35 TRUE
8Work-related accidents Indemnifications and leaves of absence 0.70 0.50 0.35 TRUE
9Lack of human resource in sufficient number
Work behind schedule and increase of the
indirect cost 0.70 0.50 0.35 TRUE
10Problems after delivery of the product Provision of warranty 0.70 0.30 0.21 TRUE
11Ignoring risks Lack of influence on the threats 0.10 0.90 0.09 FALSE
12Robbery and/or theft Associated losses 0.30 0.30 0.09 FALSE
13Default Financial Cost 0.10 0.30 0.03 FALSE
14Pending approvals and regularizations Changes 0.30 0.30 0.09 FALSE
15 - FALSE
IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE RISKS
THE DEFINITION OF THE LEVELS OF PROBABILITY AND IMPACT REDUCE THE BIAS IN PRIORIZING THE
RISKS AND THEIR ANALYSIS ALLOWS TO ASSESS THE IMPORTANCE OF EACH RISK ON THE PROJECT.
Opportunities
Number Cause Effect Probab. Impact Level of Risk Validation
1Outsourcing Reduction of charges 0.50 0.50 0.25 TRUE
2Volume of purchases Increase of the power of negotiation 0.70 0.50 0.35 TRUE
3Proximity with city districts that provide the MDO Reduction of costs with transport vouchers 0.90 0.30 0.27 TRUE
4 - FALSE
5 - FALSE
6 - FALSE
7 - FALSE
8 - FALSE
9 - FALSE
10 - FALSE
11 - FALSE
12 - FALSE
13 - FALSE
14 - FALSE
15 - FALSE
IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE RISKS
DURING THIS PROCESS WE MAY ALSO SEPARATE THE RISKS IN GROUPS DEFINED BY CATEGORIES
OF SIMILAR CAUSE OR EFFECT, OR EVEN TUNE THE PRIORITIZING BY COMPARING THE RISKS IN
PAIRS, IN ORDER TO DETERMINE THE PRIORITY BETWEEN THE PAIRS.
IN THE EXAMPLE BELOW, THE LAST RISK MARKED IS CONSIDERED AS THE MOST IMPORTANT AND
SHALL BE PRIORITIZED, AS WELL AS THE CATEGORY 0001 RELATED WITH LABOR IS THE ONE WITH
THE LARGEST NUMBER OF RISKS IDENTIFIED AND SHALL HAVE AN ACTION PLAN INTEGRATED TO IT.
IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE RISKS
A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS CONSISTS OF ANALYZING THE RISKS NUMERICALLY. FROM THE
IDENTIFICATION, RANKING (CLASSIFICATION) AND PRIORITIZING OF THE RISKS MADE DURING THE
QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS, WE DEFINE THE IMPACTS MATHEMATICALLY ON THE ACTIVITIES AND
RESOURCES IMPACTED BY THE RISK, CALCULATING THE EXPECTED VALUE INDIVIDUALLY FOR A RISK
OR ASSESSING THE EFFECT OF THE ADDED RISKS ON THE PROJECT.
EXPECTED VALUE = PROBABILITY X IMPACT.
Threats
Number Cause Effect Probab. Impact Expected Value
1High level of outsourcing Low quality and reworks 90.00% R$ 1,140.392.56 R$ 1,026,353.30
2parallelism between projects and performance Error on the performance 90.00% R$ 346,583.92 R$ 311,925.53
3Labor claims Costs with claims and indemnifications 70.00% R$ 337,359.64 R$ 236,151.75
4Low performance of structural inputs need for reinforcement of the structure 50.00% R$ 456,157.02 R$ 228,078.51
5Initial services performed by another company Buffer or Gap of scope 50.00% R$ 114,039.26 R$ 57,019.63
6Inflation above expectations Increase of price of materials and labor 50.00% R$ 1,732,919.60 R$ 866,459.80
7Competition for labor Increase of costs with labor 70.00% R$ 1,346,015.46 R$ 942,210.82
8Work-related accidents Indemnifications and leaves of absence 70.00% R$ 432,503.64 R$ 302,752.55
9Lack of human resource in sufficient number
Work behind schedule and increase of the
indirect cost 70.00% R$ 479,087.53 R$ 335,361.27
10Problems after delivery of the product Provision of warranty 70.00% R$ 558,566.29 R$ 390.996.40
Total R$ (6,943,624.91) R$ (4,697,309.56)
IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE RISKS
A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS CONSISTS OF ANALYZING THE RISKS NUMERICALLY. FROM THE
IDENTIFICATION, RANKING (CLASSIFICATION) AND PRIORITIZING OF THE RISKS MADE DURING THE
QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS, WE DEFINE THE IMPACTS MATHEMATICALLY ON THE ACTIVITIES AND
RESOURCES IMPACTED BY THE RISK, CALCULATING THE EXPECTED VALUE INDIVIDUALLY FOR A RISK
OR ASSESSING THE EFFECT OF THE ADDED RISKS ON THE PROJECT.
EXPECTED VALUE = PROBABILITY X IMPACT.
Opportunities
Number Cause Effect Probab. Impact Expected Value
1Outsourcing Reduction of charges 50.00% R$ 1,265,098.67 R$ 632,549.33
2Volume of purchases Increase of the power of negotiation 70.00% R$ 553,735.08 R$ 387,614.56
3Proximity with city districts that supply the MDO Reduction of costs with transport vouchers 90.00% R$ 421,699.56 R$ 379,529.60
Total R$ 2,240.533.30 R$ 1,399,693.49
IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE RISKS
THE EFFECT OF THE RISKS ADDED TO THE PROJECT DETERMINE THE EXPECTED VALUE OF THE
PROJECT WITH RISKS.
EXPECTED VALUE OF THE PROJECT WITH RISKS = BASE VALUE OF THE WORK + THREATS +
OPPORTUNITIES.
AT THIS TIME, IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE TO DETERMINE THE EXPECTED VALUE IN THE BEST CASE
(CONSIDERING THAT ONLY THE OPPORTUNITIES OCCUR), AS WELL AS THE EXPECTED VALUE IN THE
WORST CASE (CONSIDERING THAT THE THREATS SHALL OCCUR AND THE OPPORTUNITIES SHALL
NOT).
Expected value Pre-reaction
Result Analysis
Base Value of the Work R$ 34,658,391.90
Risks - Threats R$ (4,697,309.56)
Risks - Opportunities R$ 1,399,693.49
Expected Value of the Project (with Risks) R$ 37,956,007.97
Expected Value - Best Case R$ 32,417,858.60
Expected Value - Worst Case R$ 41,602,016.82
IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
PLAN THE RESPONSE TO RISKS
IT IS FROM THIS POINT ON THAT THE PMO BEGINS INTERFERING ON THE EVENTS AND IMPACTS OF
THE RISKS. THE PRECISE IDENTIFICATION WAS FUNDAMENTAL TO BEGIN THIS PHASE WITH
PARAMETERS TO DECIDE ON THE FUTURE OF THE PROJECT.
WHAT STRATEGY SHALL WE USE FOR EACH RISK? IS THERE A REACTION TO THE RISK? WHAT IS THE
BENEFIT/COST OF THAT REACTION? WHEN MUST IT BE TAKEN AND BY WHOM?
THERE ARE 04 BASIC STRATEGIES TO RESPOND TO THE RISKS, NAMELY;
- ELIMINATE OR PROVOKE = TAKE THE PROBABILITY TO 0% OR 100% FOR THREATS OR
OPPORTUNITIES RESPECTIVELY.
- TRANSFER OR SHARE = OUTSOURCE THE IMPACT OR THE ACTION FOR THREATS OR
OPPORTUNITIES RESPECTIVELY.
- MITIGATE OR LEVERAGE = REDUCE OR INCREASE THE PROBABILITY AND/OR THE IMPACT FOR
THREATS OR OPPORTUNITIES RESPECTIVELY.
- ACCEPT = WHEN THE COST BENEFIT OF THE REACTION IS NOT JUSTIFIABLE AND THE RISK IS THEN
ACCEPTED AND MONITORED.
IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
PLAN THE RESPONSE TO RISKS
A GIVEN REACTION MAY BE ALSO RANKED AS CONTAINMENT OR CONTINGENCY, I.E., CONTAINMENT
FOR REACTIONS MADE REGARDLESS OF THE EVENT OF RISK OCCURRING OR NOT AND THE
CONTINGENCY FOR REACTIONS THAT ARE PERFORMED AS THE EVENTS OF RISK TAKE PLACE.
Reaction - Containment or Contingency for the Risk - Threats
Cause Effect Expected Value Moment Strategy. Probab. Impact
1 High level of outsourcing Low quality and reworks 1,026,353.30 Contingency Mitigate 90.00% 1,140.392.56
2 Parallelism between projects and performance Error on the performance 311,925.53 Contingency Mitigate 90.00% 346,583.92
3 Labor claims Costs with claims and indemnifications 236,151.75 Contingency Mitigate 70.00% 337,359.64
4 Low performance of structural inputs need for reinforcement of the structure 228,078.51 Contingency Transfer 50.00% 456,157.02
5 Initial services performed by another company Buffer or Gap of scope 57,019.63 Containment Accept 50.00% 114,039.26
6 Inflation above expectations Increase of price of materials and labor 866,459.80 Contingency Mitigate 50.00% 1,732,919.60
7 Competition for labor Increase of costs with labor 942,210.82 Contingency Mitigate 70.00% 1,346,015.46
8 Work-related accidents Indemnifications and leaves of absence 302,752.55 Contingency Mitigate 70.00% 432,503.64
9 Lack of human resource in sufficient number
Work behind schedule and increase of the indirect
cost 335,361.27 Contingency Mitigate 70.00% 479,087.53
10 Problems after delivery of the product Provision of warranty 390.996.40 Containment Mitigate 70.00% 558,566.29
11 Ignoring risks Lack of influence on the threats - Contingency Transfer 10.00% -
(4,697,309.56) (6,943,624.91)
IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
PLAN THE RESPONSE TO RISKS
AS REACTIONS DEVEM BE LISTADAS AND OS CUSTO ASSOCIADOS A ELAS DEVEM BE CALCULADOS.
Reaction - Containment or Contingency for the Risk - Threats
Cause Effect Expected Value Reaction Moment Strategy. $ Reaction Probab. Impact
1 High level of outsourcing Low quality and reworks 1,026,353,30 Quality/Contract Control Contingency Mitigate 75,000.00 90.00% 30.00% 1,140.392,56
2 Parallelism between projects and performance Error on the performance 311,925,53 Compatibility of Project Contingency Mitigate 30,000.00 90.00% 30.00% 346,583,92
3 Labor claims Costs with claims and indemnifications 236,151,75 3rd Party Document Control Contingency Mitigate 90,000.00 70.00% 30.00% 337,359,64
4 Low performance of structural inputs need for reinforcement of the structure 228,078,51 Performance Clause Contingency Transfer 10,000.00 50.00% 10.00% 456,157,02
5 Initial services performed by another company Buffer or Gap of scope 57,019,63 Accept Containment Accept - 50.00% 50.00% 114,039,26
6 Inflation above expectations Increase of price of materials and labor 866,459,80 Anticipated purchase Contingency Mitigate - 50.00% 30.00% 1,732,919,60
7 Competition for labor Increase of costs with labor 942,210.82 Labor Fidelity Contingency Mitigate 150,000.00 70.00% 30.00% 1,346,015,46
8 Work-related accidents Indemnifications and leaves of absence 302,752,55 Safety Technician Contingency Mitigate 135,000.00 70.00% 10.00% 432,503,64
9 Lack of human resource in sufficient number
Work behind schedule and increase of the indirect
cost 335,361,27 Fund raising agencies Contingency Mitigate 30,000.00 70.00% 10.00% 479,087,53
10 Problems after delivery of the product Provision of warranty 390.996,40 Quality/Contract Control Containment Mitigate 75,000.00 70.00% 30.00% 558,566,29
11 Ignoring risks Lack of influence on the threats - Net Premium Contingency Transfer 200,000.00 10.00% 0.00% -
(4,697,309,56) 595,000.00 (6,943,624,91)
IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
PLAN THE RESPONSE TO RISKS
SINCE THE REACTIONS INTERFERE IN THE FUTURE OF THE RISKS, ON MUST DETERMINE NEXT THE
NEW NOVO EXPECTED VALUE OF THE RISKS AND COMPARE IT TO THE EXPECTED VALUE PRE-
REACTION.
Reaction - Containment or Contingency for the Risk - Threats
Cause Effect Expected Value Reaction Moment Strategy. $ Reaction Probab.
New
Probab. Impact New E.V.
1 High level of outsourcing Low quality and reworks 1,026,353.30 Quality/Contract Control Contingency Mitigate 75,000.00 90.00% 30.00% 1,140,392.56 342,117,77
2 Parallelism between projects and performance Error on the performance 311,925.53 Compatibility of Project Contingency Mitigate 30,000.00 90.00% 30.00% 346,583.92 103,975,.8
3 Labor claims Costs with claims and indemnifications 236,151.75 3rd Party Document Control Contingency Mitigate 90,000.00 70.00% 30.00% 337,359.64 101,207.89
4 Low performance of structural inputs need for reinforcement of the structure 228,078.51 Performance Clause Contingency Transfer 10,000.00 50.00% 10.00% 456,157.02 45,615.70
5 Initial services performed by another company Buffer or Gap of scope 57,019.63 Accept Containment Accept - 50.00% 50.00% 114,039.26 57,019.63
6 Inflation above expectations Increase of price of materials and labor 866,459.80 Anticipated purchase Contingency Mitigate - 50.00% 30.00% 1,732,919.60 519,875.88
7 Competition for labor Increase of costs with labor 942,210.82 Labor Fidelity Contingency Mitigate 150,000.00 70.00% 30.00% 1,346,015.46 403,804.64
8 Work-related accidents Indemnifications and leaves of absence 302,752.55 Safety Technician Contingency Mitigate 135,000.00 70.00% 10.00% 432,503.64 43,250.36
9 Lack of human resource in sufficient number
Work behind schedule and increase of the indirect
cost 335,361.27 Fund raising agencies Contingency Mitigate 30,000.00 70.00% 10.00% 479,087.53 47,908.75
10 Problems after delivery of the product Provision of warranty 390.996.40 Quality/Contract Control Containment Mitigate 75,000.00 70.00% 30.00% 558,566.29 167,569.89
11 Ignoring risks Lack of influence on the threats - Net Premium Contingency Transfer 200,000.00 10.00% 0.00% - -
(4,697,309,56) 595,000.00 (6,943,624.91)(1,832,345.69)
IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
Post-reaction expected value
Result Analysis
Base Value of the Work R$ 34,658,391,90
Cost of reaction of threats R$ 595,000.00
Cost of reaction of opportunities R$ -
New Base Value of the Work R$ 35,253,391.90
Risks - Threats R$ (1,832,345.69)
Risks - Opportunities R$ 1,399,693.49
Management Reserves R$ -
Expected Value of the Project with Risks (POST-REACTION) R$ 35,686,044.10
Expected Value - Best Case (Improbable) R$ 33,012,858.60
Expected Value - Worst Case (Improbable) R$ 42,197,016.82
Expected Value - Best Case (Probable) R$ 33,853,698.41
Expected Value - Worst Case (Probable) R$ 37,085,737.59
Risk Differential Improbable Worst Case R$ 7,538,624.91
Risk Differential Probable Worst Case R$ 2,427,345.69
Most Probable Risk Differential R$ 1,027,652.20
Risk Differential Probable Best Case R$ (804,693.49)
Risk Differential Improbable Best Case R$ (1,645,533.30)
Pre-reaction expected value
Result Analysis
Base Value of the Work R$ 34,658,391.90
Risks - Threats R$ (4,697,309.56)
Risks - Opportunities R$ 1,399,693.49
Expected Value of the Project with Risks (PRE-REACTION) R$ 37,956,007.97
Expected Value - Best Case R$ 32,417,858.60
Expected Value - Worst Case R$ 41,602,016.82
IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
Expected value Post-reaction
Result Analysis
Base Value of the Work R$ 34,658,391.90
Cost of reaction of threats R$ 595,000.00
Cost of reaction of opportunities R$ -
New Base Value of the Work R$ 35,253,391.90
Risks - Threats R$ (1,832,345.69)
Risks - Opportunities R$ 1,399,693.49
Management Reserves R$ -
Expected Value of the Project with Risks (POST-REACTION) R$ 35,686,044.10
Expected Value - Best Case (Improbable) R$ 33,012,858.60
Expected Value - Worst Case (Improbable) R$ 42,197,016.82
Expected Value - Best Case (Probable) R$ 33,853,698.41
Expected Value - Worst Case (Probable) R$ 37,085,737.59
Risk Differential Improbable Worst Case R$ 7,538,624.91
Risk Differential Probable Worst Case R$ 2,427,345.69
Most Probable Risk Differential R$ 1,027,652.20
Risk Differential Probable Best Case R$ (804,693.49)
Risk Differential Improbable Best Case R$ (1,645,533.30)
PLAN THE RESPONSE TO RISKS
THE MOST PROBABLE RISK DIFFERENTIAL POST-REACTION INCREASED IN 2.97% THE BASE VALUE OF
THE WORK.
THIS NUMBER IS THE UPPER LIMIT (THE “CEILING”) ACCEPTABLE FOR THE IMPACT OF THE RISKS IN
THIS PROJECT.
IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
Expected value Post-reaction
Result Analysis
Base Value of the Work R$ 34,658,391.90
Cost of reaction of threats R$ 595,000.00
Cost of reaction of opportunities R$ -
New Base Value of the Work R$ 35,253,391.90
Risks - Threats R$ (1,832,345.69)
Risks - Opportunities R$ 1,399,693.49
Management Reserves R$ -
Expected Value of the Project with Risks (POST-REACTION) R$ 35,686,044.10
Expected Value - Best Case (Improbable) R$ 33,012,858.60
Expected Value - Worst Case (Improbable) R$ 42,197,016.82
Expected Value - Best Case (Probable) R$ 33,853,698.41
Expected Value - Worst Case (Probable) R$ 37,085,737.59
Risk Differential Improbable Worst Case R$ 7,538,624.91
Risk Differential Probable Worst Case R$ 2,427,345.69
Most Probable Risk Differential R$ 1,027,652.20
Risk Differential Probable Best Case R$ (804,693.49)
Risk Differential Improbable Best Case R$ (1,645,533.30)
PLAN THE RESPONSE TO RISKS
THE METRICS FOR THE DETERMINATION OF THE PERFORMANCE OF RISKS SHALL BE BASED ON THE
EXPECTED VALUE IN THE PROBABLE BEST CASE.
THE IDR (RISK PERFORMANCE INDEX) SHALL VARY ACCORDING WITH THIS NUMBER. REACHING THE
GOALS MEANS AN IDR = 100%.
IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
MONITORING AND CONTROL OF RISKS
CULTURALLY, CONSTRUCTION COMPANIES INCORPORATE RISKS FROM 3% TO 5% WHILE DEFINING
THE COSTS OF A PROJECT.
A MISTAKEN CONCEPT WAS CREATED THAT THIS PARAMETER WORKS SINCE THE TENDENDY FOR
RISKS THAT ARE IGNORED AND NOT MANAGED IS TO REMAIN WITHIN SUCH MARGIN.
THE FACT IS THAT THE RISK MANAGEMENT MAY TURN UNCERTAINTIES INTO A COMPETITIVE
ADVANTAGE AND MAKE THE DIFFERENT ON DECISION MAKING.
THIS METHODOLOGY MUST BE APPLIED AFTER THE DETERMINATION OF A RISK POLICY WHERE THE
ORGANIZATION’S RISK TOLERANCE WAS DEFINED.
THIS POLICY MAY BEGAN ON A PESSIMISTIC NOTE AND BECOME MORE OPTMISTIC AS THE PROJECTS
REGISTER BETTER PERFORMANCE, AND THE LESSONS LEARNED PROVIDE MATURITY FOR THE
ORGANIZATION.
MATURE COMPANIES ARE MORE COMPETITIVE!
THE SUCESS IN OBTAINING STREAMLINED RISK PERFORMANCE METRICS LIES IN MONITORING AND
CONTROLLING THEM IN THE ENTIRE LIFE CYCLE OF THE PROJECT.
IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
MONITORING AND CONTROL OF RISKS
TIPS FOR THE MONITORING AND CONTROL OF RISKS:
-ALL REACTIONS MUST HAVE A RESPONSIBLE PERSON AND A DATE FOR THEIR PERFORMANCE.
- THE REACTIONS MUST BE INCLUDED IN THE SCHEDULE AS ACTIVITIES.
- THE ROOT CAUSE OF THE RISK MUST BE MONITORED AND WARNING MUST BE INCLUDED IN THE
COMMUNICATION PLAN.
- THE MANAGEMENT RESERVES MUST BE USED ONLY FOR RISKS NOT IDENTIFIED.
- THE PMO MUST ESTABLISH GOVERNANCE FOR THE APPLICATION OF THE PROCESSS AND FOLLOW-
UP OF THE RISKS.
- MAINTAIN DOCUMENTATION WITH THE REGISTERING OF THE RISKS, TENDENCIES AND CHANGES TO
THE SCENARIO.
- INCREASE THE ORGANIZATION MATURITY BY INCORPORATING THE LESSONS LEARNED IN RISK
MANAGEMENT OF KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT.
IBEN ENGENHARIA LTDA.
WRITTEN BY
EDUARDO MILITÃO ELIAS, MBA / PMP®
ID 1396759
SPONSORED BY
CONSTRUTORA IBEN LTDA., RCP PMI®
ID 1463462