Case Study: ATCSoft The ATCSoft project was launched, and steady progress was made When the team set out to integrate the ATCSoft application with existing RADAR equipment, however, they hit a snag The team members could not figure out how to integrate the systems The RADAR system did not have appropriate physical connections, nor was there an appropriate driver for the interconnection The project manager had to hire engineering consultants to work out the integration details This diversion took 2 months and cost a significant amount of money (additional labour, consultancy fees, and business value)
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Case Study: ATCSoft
The ATCSoft project was launched, and steady progress was made
When the team set out to integrate the ATCSoft application with existing RADAR equipment, however, they hit a snag
The team members could not figure out how to integrate the systems
The RADAR system did not have appropriate physical connections, nor was there an appropriate driver for the interconnection
The project manager had to hire engineering consultants to work out the integration details
This diversion took 2 months and cost a significant amount of money (additional labour, consultancy fees, and business value)
Case Study: PathFinder 2.0
The PathFinder project was started in August Rory Thompson was the star developer
His knowledge of neural nets inspired him to suggest that a neural net implementation of a PathFinder would be a good idea
He wrote up much of the foundation code for the neural network Initial tests showed a definite improvement in the PathFinder
performance, and more realistic, human-like, decisions Despite the large salary increase he was offered, Rory took a
good offer with another firm When some tests showed that the neural net was not fast enough to
make real-time decisions, the team had no immediate answers A bug was found that sent the avatars wandering aimlessly around
the maze in a circuit, when certain rare conditions were present Again, the team had no idea how to approach the problem
What happened?
What happened in both of these case studies?
What happened?
What happened in both of these case studies? In the ATCSoft scenario, a technical problem ended
up stalling development This could easily have become a complete disaster, if it were
not possible to integrate the systems
What happened?
What happened in both of these case studies? In the ATCSoft scenario, a technical problem ended
up stalling development This could easily have become a complete disaster, if it were
not possible to integrate the systems In the PathFinder scenario, a personnel problem was
at fault The team’s over-reliance on a hero was their downfall Taking the hero out of the equation stalled development
What happened?
What happened in both of these case studies? In the ATCSoft scenario, a technical problem ended
up stalling development This could easily have become a complete disaster, if it were
not possible to integrate the systems In the PathFinder scenario, a personnel problem was
at fault The team’s over-reliance on a hero was their downfall Taking the hero out of the equation stalled development
In both scenarios, the team neglected their risks It is critical for a project team to understand and plan for risks
Risk Mitigation
In the ATCSoft project, the team should have investigated the integration of various systems at the start of the project
Given adequate time, the integration could have been worked out before it was needed
Risk Mitigation
In the ATCSoft project, the team should have investigated the integration of various systems at the start of the project
Given adequate time, the integration could have been worked out before it was needed
In the PathFinder project, Rory should have been the project’s neural network consultant
He could have thoroughly documented the neural network code as it was developed
He could have had seminars for team members, explaining the concepts of neural networks
Understanding neural networks, the team would have a better chance of carrying on without Rory
60-499 Project Management: Tools & Techniques
Risk Assessment
Risk Assessment
The following describes the risk assessment process:
Once risks are assessed, a project manager should plan for them
1. Identifying risks 1. Identifying risks
2. Estimating a risk’s cost/effects2. Estimating a risk’s cost/effects
3. Estimating a risk’s likelihood 3. Estimating a risk’s likelihood
Organizational risks Lack of support or resources Inadequate or inefficient management Interference from other projects & management agendas
p.65
Categories of Risk
Here is one way to categorize risks (continued): Constraint risks
Deadlines Resources
Business risks Marketability Timing Vendor delays Economic conditions
External risks Changing laws and regulations Dependence upon suppliers and contractors
p.65
When do we identify risks?
There are a two major approaches to risk identification Identify risks before the planning phase
Some risks may be difficult to spot when looking at requirements at a high level
Identify risks after the planning phase It is useful to know risks before the planning phase, so that extra
time can be dedicated to their mitigation
A good compromise is to perform risk identification during the planning phase:
After creating the work breakdown structure Before creating the schedule
Common Risks
These risks are related to schedule: Feature creep
New features are frequently added after development has started Requirements gold-plating
Too much documentation Implementation gold-plating
Developers are working on the perfect implementation Inadequate design
Too little attention has been paid to design Overly optimistic schedules
Management pushed schedules down, rather than schedules work their way upward from developers
Poor motivation/weak personnel Developers are working at a less-than-optimal pace
Silver-bullet syndrome A trendy technology was expected to produce the equivalent to 10,000 lines
of code in only 50 lines of code Contractor failure
A contractor lacked expertise/commitment needed to do the job on schedule
60-499 Project Management: Tools & Techniques
Risk Assessment
Estimating Risk Cost & Effects
Estimating Risk Costs & Effects
Estimating the costs & effects of a risk is dependent upon the risk
e.g. A project using a new technology might realize that the technology is inadequate or unreliable Now, the application must be retrofitted to another (trusted)
technology Much of the software may need to be replaced The cost in this case is the cost of developing the obsolete
components In addition, there may be hidden costs due to delays (such
as customer confidence or personnel availability)
Estimating Risk Costs & Effects
Estimating the costs & effects of a risk is dependent upon the risk
e.g. In some projects there is a risk that a key developer will leave the project If the key developer leaves, what will it take to replace her? Given market conditions, you might estimate a replacement
in 2 months Some project deliverables might be delayed by up to that
amount in her absence Also, you may have to consider signing bonuses, relocation
expenses, travel expenses, and other hiring costs It depends on the project whether or not these costs are
considered high
How to estimate cost?
To estimate the cost, imagine a scenario where the event occurs
e.g. Ok, Sarah has left the company. What do we do now? We could promote Gerard to team leader We would need one more developer with technological
expertise Our corporate headhunter estimates hiring will take 10 weeks
e.g. PHP didn’t solve the problem. What now? We could use Ruby on Rails We would need to send our developers to training courses
In-depth RoR training courses are 4 months
60-499 Project Management: Tools & Techniques
Risk Assessment
Estimating Risk Likelihood
Estimating Risk Likelihood
Like risk cost, risk likelihood also depends on the risk e.g. The likelihood that a technology will fail can usually be
estimated accurately Tristan: “How likely is it that the technology (e.g. PHP) will fail to
meet our expectations?” Carlos: “PHP has been used for many projects successfully.
There have been many failed PHP projects, but very few cite the technology as the cause of the failure. On the other hand, there have been many very high-profile PHP projects.”
Carlos: “Consider FaceBook, which has similar (but more complex) functionality to our GroupWare application.”
Tristan: “FaceBook uses PHP? That is similar to our project.” Carlos: “I can’t forsee any features we will need that will be
impossible in PHP.”
Estimating Risk Likelihood
Like risk cost, risk likelihood also depends on the risk e.g. How likely is it that Sarah Windermere will leave the project?
Her project manager may be aware of her job satisfaction, or her peers However, a face-to-face meeting to assess her job satisfaction has no
substitute Example:
Tristan: “Sarah, we’ve been very happy with your performance on previous projects. You will be an integral part of this upcoming project. Are there any concerns you have about this project or your job?”
Sarah: “Not really. I like the challenges.” Tristan: “If you do have any concerns, I want you to tell me right away. Your
satisfaction and motivation are very important to me.” Sarah: “Actually, I have been having a tough time working with Gerard. He
doesn’t respect my leadership, and tries to rally the team against me.” Tristan: “How does the rest of the team feel about his actions?” Sarah: “Many of them either have confronted him about or have told me
they don’t agree with him.” Tristan: “I’ll have a talk with your team to confirm what you’ve said, but it
sounds like Gerard and I need to have a talk about each of your responsibilities.”
How to estimate likelihood?
The best way to estimate is to ask the people closest to the problem
e.g. For Sarah, the best person to ask would be her (followed by her direct supervisor)
e.g. For PHP technology, anyone who has used PHP for a previous project
60-499 Project Management: Tools & Techniques
Risk Assessment
Identifying Alternatives
Identifying Alternatives
e.g. What are the alternatives to PHP? JSP/J2EE ASP.NET Ruby/ROR Perl
Identifying Alternatives
e.g. Are there alternatives to Sarah? Gerard Lepalme: Has leadership, but lacks the
technological expertise Helen Driskoll: Knows some of the technology, but is
very inexperienced
60-499 Project Management: Tools & Techniques
Risk Assessment
Evaluating & Comparing Alternatives
Evaluating & Comparing Alternatives
e.g. Let us examine the alternatives to PHP: JSP/J2EE
Much of our existing staff is familiar with this technology Using this technology would require a few days of training Architecture should be more robust
ASP.NET We have no in-house personnel trained in this technology Using this technology would require at least one month of training Development of user interfaces, however, should be made easier
Ruby/ROR We have only a few in-house developers trained in this technology Using this technology would require weeks of training Development should be made easier Architecture should be more robust
Perl We have no in-house personnel trained in this technology Using this technology would require at least one month of training
Evaluating & Comparing Alternatives
e.g. Let us examine alternatives to Sarah: Gerard Lepalme: Has leadership, but lacks the technological
expertise Gerard is a take charge kind of person He is also a get it done kind of person However, he is not familiar with XML and many other technologies
we plan to use Helen Driskoll: Knows some of the technology, but is very
inexperienced Helen knows XML and a few other technologies we plan to use However, Helen is just starting her career She has difficulty being assertive and taking charge She doesn’t command respect from her colleagues Her development itself is slow
Assigning Probabilities
There are many approaches to assigning probabilities It often doesn’t matter if you only care about the value relative to
other risks However, this is a good rule of thumb:
Very low: 0.05 Low: 0.20 Medium: 0.40 High: 0.60 Very High: 0.80
60-499 Project Management: Tools & Techniques
Risk Assessment
Bringing It All Together
Risk Assessment
Ok, we’ve collected dataWhat is next?
We need to crunch some numbers to determine which option is the best Qualitative assessment
Risks are evaluated and planned for if they have significant likelihood and significant costs
Dynamic risk assessment Risks are given a score for each development phrase The stage scores are totaled to calculate the risk’s score
Risk exposure assessment The risk likelihood is expressed in percentages The risk cost is expressed in weeks These two are multiplied to calculate an expected loss
Risk impact assessment Similar to risk exposure, but percentages are also used for cost
Qualitative Risk Assessment
Low Medium High
Low Ignore Ignore Consider
Medium Ignore Consider Take action
High Consider Take action Take action
Dynamic Risk Assessment
A B C Score
Requirements 1 3 1 5
Design 2 2 2 6
Implementation 3 1 2 6
Testing 3 1 4 8
Integration 2 1 4 7
Score 11 8 13 32
Risk Exposure Assessment
Probability of Loss
CostRisk
Exposure
Technology Failure
5% 20 weeks 1 week
Key Developer Attrition
40% 10 weeks 4 weeks
…etc…
Risk Impact Assessment
Probability of Loss
ImpactRisk
Exposure
Technology Failure
0.05 0.60 0.03
Key Developer Attrition
0.40 0.40 0.16
…etc…
Evaluating Alternatives
When considering alternatives, you can apply the same techniques to all alternatives