Risk Analysis Fundamentals and Application Robert L. Griffin International Plant Protection Convention Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN.

Risk AnalysisFundamentals and Application

Robert L. GriffinInternational Plant Protection Convention

Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN

Risk: What is it?

The probability of an adverse event and the magnitude of the consequences…

Risk vs Safety

Nutritious -vs- tasty #1 rated car -vs- a good car A contract -vs- agreement The weather -vs- a bad day

Consider:_________________________

Risk is measurable, objective, and based on fixed criteria

Elements of risk Probability (or likelihood, chance) Consequences (or impact) Uncertainty Ability to manage

There must be a potential ‘hazard’ for risk to exist

Risk Criteria Choice of action

Voluntary or involuntary

Chance for loss Probability or frequency

Magnitude of loss Character, extent, time

Ability to manage Resources, timing

So, What is Risk Analysis? A systematic way of gathering,

evaluating, and recording information leading to recommendations for a position or action in response to an identified hazard

Why do Risk Analysis?

Before you can manage something you must be able

to measure it

Risk Analysis should:

Identify hazards

Characterize risks

Recognize uncertainty

Summarize conclusions

Recommend options

Document the basis for decisions

Components of Risk Analysis

[Initiation] Hazard Identification Risk Assessment

Probability, consequences, uncertainty Risk Management

Efficacy, feasibility, impacts [Risk communication]

The Hazard Question

What am I afraid will happen??

OR

What is the adverse event??

Risk Assessment Questions

What information is available?

What is the quantity and quality of information?

What is the probability?

What is the magnitude of the consequences (if I do nothing)?

Should something be done?

Risk Management Questions

What can be done to eliminate or reduce the hazard?

How effective are the options?

How feasible are the options?

What impacts do the options have?

What is the level and type of uncertainty?

What is the best option?

Variability and Uncertainty

Variability is not reduced with more or better information

Uncertainty may be:

Modeling or measurement errors

Gaps in information

Out-of-date information

Incorrect assumptions

Risk Communication

Open, multiple exchanges of information and opinions that lead to better understanding and decisions:

Consulting

Informing

Explaining or justifying

Transparency

Document information sources Identify processes/methods Provide rationale for conclusions

and decisions Describe uncertainty and identify

data gaps or areas for additional research

Mitigationrequires

assessment

Risk requires

mitigation

Initiation

Identify hazard(s)

Estimate the likelihood ofoccurrence

Estimate the magnitudeof the consequences

Develop conclusions and describe uncertainty

Develop recommendationsand describe uncertainty

Evaluate mitigation options for: -Efficacy -Feasibility -Impacts

Identify mitigation options

Decisionmaking

Describe the concern which has the need.Understand the background and expectations.

Evaluate recommendations against current environmentand values to select an option.

Risk Assessment

Risk Management

Benefits of Risk Analysis

Justify and defend decisions

Evaluate decisions of others

Prioritize resources

View risk objectively and realistically

Identify research and information needs

Identify technical points of difference

Important Linkages

Policy makers Regulators Researchers Civil society

What about HACCP?

HAZARD ANALYSIS CRITICAL CONTROL POINT

A risk management system

Requires a defined process with independent control points

Must be able to monitor, measure, and control each point

Must be able to react and correct problems before damage is done

Steps of HACCP1. Determine hazards and their occurrence in a

system2. Identify independent actions that can be

monitored and controlled3. Establish criteria for acceptance/failure4. Monitor control points5. Take corrective action when exceeding set

criteria6. Validate system efficacy and confidence

… And the Precautionary Approach? Rio Declaration (1992) Principle 15

“In order to protect the environment, the precautionary approach shall be widely applied by States...

lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation.”

Art 2.2 - “Sufficient scientific evidence”

Is the absence of evidence of a hazard

evidence of absence of a hazard?

A key component of risk analysis is identifying uncertainty …

A key component of decision-making is considering the uncertainty.

The role of precaution

In the judgment of the acceptable level of risk -- taking into account the scientific evidence and uncertainty

In the judgment of strength of measures -- taking into account the scientific evidence and uncertainty

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