RFID today and in the future Peter Harrop IdTechEx

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IDTechEx

RFID Today and in the Future

Dr Peter Harrop, Chairman [email protected]

IDTechEx www.idtechex.com


IDTechEx

IDTechEx is an independent strategic analyst on RFID smart labels, printed electronics and smart packaging. Our core services provide:

Consultancy Publications/

Research

Conferences and Exhibitions

Clients include:

Shell Oil

Hewlett Packard

Rexam

Whirlpool Europe

Guinness UDV

Thin Film Electronics

PolyTechnos

Schiphol Airport…

• Independent market and technology research reports covering RFID, printed electronics & smart packaging topics

• Smart Labels Analyst journal, Printed Electronics Review and the world’s largest RFID case study knowledgebase

Global Conferences: USA, Europe and Asia

RFID Smart Labels

Active RFID

Printed Electronics


IDTechExAn enabling technology may be very simple yet incredibly useful

• A wheel

• Paper


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Tag

Reader sends

signal and “reads”

response

RFID System Basics


IDTechExRadio Frequency Identification RFID is an enabling technology

• It uses an electronic “reader” to read data at a distance on small “tags”

• RFID has few problems of obscuration, orientation, speed or reading many at a time

• RFID automates things

RFID is like the wheel or paper – it is an enabling technology found (almost) everywhere.


IDTechExRFID is used for very different purposes

• Healthcare – anti-counterfeiting, locating people and assets

• Military – mounting campaigns previously impossible

• Retail – increased sales, reduced costs• Financial and transportation – faster, more

secure transactions• Animals – accurate, fast, disease response,

locating lost pets• Library – find lost books, automate procedures,

anti-theft


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• “CPG shrinkage is 2% - $60 billion yearly.” ECR Europe

• “75% of the cost of a retail product is getting it there.” MIT

• “Up to 20% of foods are discarded due to spoilage through the supply chain.” Food and Drug Administration

• Stockouts at retailers cost six percent of sales. One third of these are items in the retailer’s store.Procter & Gamble $180 billion yearly

The world’s supply chains are out of control


IDTechEx

The Consumer goods industry is $3 trillion yearly

$1 trillion of this is unnecessary

RFID can help tackle $400 billion yearly of this waste –

• Theft, fraud, misplacement, expiry, delay, manual procedures, empty shelves, not knowing what the customer wants ……….


IDTechExRetail/ military mandates for RFID on pallets and cases – 350 million tags in 2006

Wal-Mart ($300Bn):

RFID enabled 475 stores, 1000 by year end

300 suppliers tagging cases and pallets of top products

Currently receive 3 million tagged cases per week (May 06)

Ordered 15,000 readers

Massive payback for Wal-Mart: Out of Stocks reduced by up to 48%; stores with RFID 63% more effective at replenishing items. No payback for consumer goods suppliers. RFID suppliers also losing money

Major competitive advantage for retailers


IDTechExRetail Mandates

What does it mean for the brands?

P&G

Fusion blades – sales increase 19% by timely arrival at shelf

Hanna Candle company

90 pallets worth $12.6M went missing but were found and knock on effect for ordering

Altria Group ($97Bn), owner of Miller, Kraft, Philip Morris

“Pallet/case tagging is a pain barrier – item level tagging is our utopia” With pallets/cases RFID can be a solution looking for a problem especially low value low margin goods.

Some benefits so far but it is a cruel world of unfair share and gain


IDTechExHealthcare is in trouble

• Taking medicine incorrectly “Medication non-compliance costs the US alone approximately $100 billion and 125,000 deaths yearly”US National Pharmaceutical Council

• Counterfeits: Pharmaceuticals 10% (In third world 30 - 40%); Tens of thousands of deaths every year

Industry estimates

• Errors:10% of hospital patients suffer an adverse event. For example, in the US, there are 20,000 mother – baby mismatches yearly USDH


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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70Rheum atology

Anxiety Disorders

Epilepsy

Geriatrics

Pain Managem ent

Diabetes Mellitus

Coronary Artery Disease

Depress ion

Hyperlipidem ia

Arthritis (all form s)

Migraine Headache

6. Percentage Non-Compliance


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Pfizer, Purdue Pharma, GlaxoSmithKline item level tagging drugs 30 million EPC

Marks & Spencer apparel – 350M yearly from 2008 Non EPC “to save cost”

Books in libraries and retail - 55 million – mainly not EPC

RFID Market 2006 by Tag Volume Sold

Pallet/case 0.35 billion

Item 0.2 billion

Other 0.85 billion Mainly cards

Total 1.4 billion Total Value $1.22 billion

Research from “RFID Forecasts, Opportunities & Players 2006-2016” IDTechEx www.idtechex.com

Item Level Tagging - happening faster than most think - 200 million tags in 2006


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Short Range Passive RFID Examples


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Example: Gillette razor packs


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RFID Tagged Products, Cases or Pallets

EPCglobal:

• Managed by GS1

• Standardisation of EPC tag types and common infrastructure

• Over 920 sponsor companies

The Electronic Product Code (EPC) System


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Example tag:

WhereNet

Reader

TaggedAsset

TaggedAsset

TaggedAsset

TaggedAsset

TaggedAsset

100m

TaggedAsset

TaggedAsset

TaggedAsset

TaggedAsset

To “System”

TaggedAsset

TaggedAsset

Long Range (50 to 100m): - Ability to locate tags:- Resolution decreases in crowded environments.- Difficult to translate in crowded environments.

- No ability to write to tag at distance.- Expensive infrastructure (many readers, expensive processing)Examples 20,000 complete cars, Ford Dearborn. Defibrillators in hospitals

Source : Savi Technology Inc and IDTechEx

Real Time Locating Systems – locating things without them going near a reader Example: Time Delay of Arrival


IDTechExZonal RTLS “Cell ID”

I

RF

RF RF

RF

RF Coverage

RF CoverageRadius 15m’

RF CoverageRadius 15m’

Building: 1,500sqm’

17 IR RDR, 4 RF RDR

50m’

30m

’

Radius 15m’

4m’

IR RDR RF RDR LF RDR


IDTechExRFID Value Chain 2006

Licensors of inventions and consultants

ChipsChip +

antenna modules

Label rolls and

dispensers

System Sellers

and Integrators

CHIPTAGS

CHIPLESSTAGS –

small business as

yet

System Operators

and Facilities Management

Deposited thin filmRFID

Interrogation Electronics

Horizontal (selling to anyone) Vertical (specialising)

Software

BIGGEST ORDERS so far $425M $6000M


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IDTechEx

New mobile phone technology is enabling users to pay at vending machines, sing karaoke, “ask” information from posters etc.

RFID enabled phones Near Field Communication


IDTechEx

A smart shelf system for DVDs in a Tesco supermarket in the UK that has increased sales by 4-10% due to reducing stockouts

Example: Smart Shelves trials


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FREQUENCIES – good things

125-135kHz 13.56MHz UHF GHz

Round corners 1m range Longest Long rangerange High data rate

Through most things Tolerant of metal (up to 10m Smallest, and fluids without battery) cheapest tag

No radiation problem Standardised

No reflection problem CONVEYANCES, VEHICLES, LIBRARY,LAUNDRY, ITEM LEVEL TAGGING,

Cheaper electronics BANKNOTES, ERROR PREVENTION,SECURE ACCESS, AIRPORT BAGGAGE

ANIMALS, BEER BARRELS,GAS CYLINDERS, SHOES OF MARATHON RUNNERS

Standardfor air baggage, pallets, cases

Standardfor cards, tickets,

passports, libraries,

laundry etc

StandardFor livestock


IDTechEx

• Concealed printable memory for item level identification.

• Compliant with RFID EPCTM Tag Data Standards*

• Integrated to the package structure

• Can be integrated to other functionalities– Tamper evidence, temperature

sensing• Short range reading method

(range up to ~mm’s)– A local electric field generated by

a reading device– HIDE is decoded in less than a

second when it passes through the field

*Defined by EPCglobal IncTM

RFID without transistorsHidden Electronic Product Code (HidE)

lllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll


IDTechExExperimental fully printed RFID labels - insulating,

semiconducting, conducting and protective patterns

Offset litho, flexo, ink jet and gravure being tried 8-128 bits read only – 52 companies working on

this


IDTechEx

Library 0.1 SingaporeMuseums, art galleries 0.1 EuropeLaundry 0.1 EuropeAnimals 1 Thailand, S America, US, Eur.Tires 1 EuropeTickets 1 Japan, Europe Cards 2 ChinaMilitary items 2USBlood 2 Europe/USTest tubes 2 Europe/USArchiving paperwork 2 USAir baggage 2 US, ChinaAir freight 2 USDrugs 30 USPallets, cases 40 US, EuropeBooks 50 JapanPostal 650 EuropeRetail items 10,000 Europe/Japan/US

ITEM LEVEL IN RED

Global Potential (Billion/Year) RFID Leadership


IDTechEx

2006 2008 2012 2015

Most likely 0.2 3 100 550

IDTechEx Forecast for Item Level Tags (Billions)


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RFID Forecasts, Players,RFID Forecasts, Players, Opportunities Opportunities 2006-20162006-2016Active RFID 2006-2016Active RFID 2006-2016Item Level RFID 2006-2016Item Level RFID 2006-2016Real Time Location Systems 2006-2016Real Time Location Systems 2006-2016

The RFID KnowledgebaseThe RFID KnowledgebaseOver 2000 case studies listed and growing every month. Covering more than 2200 companies, 81 countries

Learn from the successes and failures of others

www.idtechex.com Tel: + 44 (0) 1223 813703

For further information read:

RFID today and in the future Peter Harrop IdTechEx

Business

time rfid

rfid suppliers

things rfid

rfid onpallets

rfid forecasts

palletscases rfid

unnecessary rfid

epc rfid market