Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx RFID and the Printing Industry A ten year view Dr Peter [email protected] IDTechEx.

Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd

IDTechEx

RFID and the Printing Industry

A ten year view

Dr Peter Harrop [email protected]

IDTechEx

www.idtechex.com

Phone 44 1223 813703


IDTechEx

IDTechEx is an independent strategic analyst on RFID, smart labels, smart packaging and printed electronics. Our core services provide:

Consultancy Publications Conferences

Clients include:

Hewlett Packard

Shell Oil

Rexam

Whirlpool Europe

Guinness UDV

Thin Film Electronics

Schiphol Airport

Major Japanese

computer, printing and packaging companies

• Independent market and technology research reports covering RFID, printed electronics & smart packaging topics

•Smart Labels Analyst – monthly.

•Printed Electronics Review

•World’s largest RFID case study knowledgebase-1800

Global Conferences: USA, Europe and Asia

RFID Smart Labels

Printed Electronics

Smart Packaging

Active RFID


IDTechEx

Radio Frequency Identification is the electronic reading of data on small objects called tags using radio frequencies or thereabouts

Compared to barcodes, magnetic stripes, print etc, RFID has few problems of orientation, obscuration or reading many at a time. It is also useful for other tasks.RFID is an enabling technology

What is RFID?


IDTechEx

Tag

Reader sends

signal and “reads”

response

RFID System Basics

For range of more than a few meters, the tag may have a battery in it = “active”


IDTechExCumulative sales in millions of tags1943- start of 2006


IDTechEx

Evolution of RFID applications

© IDTechEx

1 2000 2003 20082005

Retail logistics

Supply chainLogistics

Transport

Passport

YEAR

Access controlAsset

Management

Payment

New opportunitiesItem levelpostal,retail, drugs etcin veryhighvolumes


IDTechEx

Application Number million Why

Drugs item level 20 Pfizer, GSK anticounterfeit ….

Library, laundry, apparel 80 1-2 year payback: cost, service

Pallets/ cases 500 $0.09 billion Big problems but will save cost/ improve service

Cards 285 $0.63 billion China national ID: financial, security, transport

Tickets/ secure documents

25 Portugal, Japan: security, speed

Air baggage 85 Las Vegas, Hong Kong: cost, service, security

Livestock 100 $0.2 billion New laws: safety, cost

Car clickers 46 Consumer demand

Passports 10 New laws: security

Other 131 Manufacture, health, vehicle etc

Possible sales in 2006


IDTechEx

RFID tag numbers

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Bil

lio

n

Item Pallet/case Other

Mainlyappareldrugspostalretail


IDTechEx

RFID “Other” tag numbers

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mil

lio

n

Smart cards/payment key fobsSmart tickets/ banknotes/ secure docsAir baggageConveyances/Other, FreightIntermodal containers and ULDsAnimalsVehiclesMilitaryPeople*Car clickersPassport pageExcluded tag applications+


IDTechEx

Library 0.1 SingaporeMuseums, art galleries 0.1 EuropeNational ID cards 0.1 ChinaLaundry 1 EuropeAnimals 1 Thailand, S America, US, Eur.Tires 1 EuropeMilitary items 2 USBlood 2 Europe/USArchiving paperwork 2 USAir baggage 2 US, ChinaAir freight 2 USDrugs 30 USPallets, cases 40 US, EuropeBooks 50 JapanPostal 650 EuropeRetail items 10,000 Europe/Japan/US

ITEM LEVEL IN RED

Global Potential (Billion/Year) RFID Leadership

A few examples of RFID tag potential


IDTechEx

Passive RFID Examples


IDTechEx

Marks & Spencer, UK

Tokyo Shirt Japan

Liti, Japan

Goldwin Sportswear, Italy

Metro Germany (trials only)

DHL Fashion France

Passive RFID – largest item level application in retailing is apparel


IDTechEx

RFID + GSM

Press the button and the incident is recorded centrally with ID and alarm

Active with passive RFID

Locating children in theme parks and sending messages

Some use RFID + Bluetooth or WiFi

Many large niche markets for RFID


IDTechEx

Reader deployment – open flow traffic at LAX airport

More roads have tolling


IDTechEx

KSW Microtec RFID tag with printed paper battery and temperature sensing. 13.56 MHz, range one meter $1-2

Infratab $0.45?

Monitors blood samples, foods, drugs

RFID labels with sensing

Partly screen printed


IDTechEx

• Logistics• Security• Safety• Traceability / product recall• Anti-counterfeiting• Proof of ownership• Product handshaking

• Carrying information around

• Transactions• Positioning / locating• Amusement – toys• Brand enhancement• Diagnostics

Often more than one application:20% of applications replace nothing

e.g. car clicker, talking drugs, Star Wars toy…

Applications of Low Cost RFID


IDTechEx

RFID Tagged Products, Cases or Pallets

EPCglobal:

• Managed by GS1

• Standardisation of EPC tag types and common infrastructure

• Over 550 sponsor companies

The Electronic Product Code (EPC) System – unique ID of vast numbers of things, interrogated over the internet


IDTechEx

A smart shelf system for DVDs in a Tesco supermarket in the UK that has increased sales by 4% due to reducing stockouts

Smart Shelves


IDTechEx

2006

1. Secure access/financial

2. Transport

3. Supply chain

Yearly: 1.3 billion

2016

1. Supply chain

2. Security

3. Transport

Yearly: 593 billion

Main Uses of Low Cost RFID

Starting to be printed directly onto packages and

products for highest volumes – no need for a

label?


IDTechEx

High volume item level RFID tagging History will repeat itself - almost

VALUE OF

LABEL SALES

YEAR

BARCODE

RFID

1990?

Value of printing directly

onto packages

and products

2015?

One day, highest volume RFID will be printed directly onto things but special inks and press adaptation will be needed

The peak in numbers is later

Barcodes printed direct

RFID printed direct


IDTechExRFID value chain

© IDTechEx

RFID Value Chain 2005

Licensors of inventions and consultants

ChipsChip +

antenna modules

Label rolls and

dispensers

System Sellers

and Integrators

CHIPTAGS

CHIPLESSTAGS –

small business as

yet

System Operators

and Facilities Management

Deposited thin filmRFID

Interrogation Electronics

Horizontal (selling to anyone) Vertical (specialising)

Software

BIGGEST ORDERS so far $50M $5M $111M $6000M


IDTechExThe end game for highest volume RFID is direct printing

© IDTechEx

RFID Value Chain 2020

Licensors of inventions and consultants

ChipsChip +

antenna modules

Label rolls and

dispensers

System Sellers

and Integrators

CHIPTAGS

CHIPLESSTAGS

including organic thin

film transistor circuits

System Operators

and Facilities Management

Deposited thin filmRFID

Interrogation Electronics

Horizontal (selling to anyone) Vertical (specialising)

Software

BIGGEST ORDERS so far $50M $10M $111M $6000M

Printed directly onto products and packaging


IDTechEx

Mandates and recommendationse.g. Wal-Mart, Tesco, Metro, Target, Albertson’s, Best Buy, US Military etc

A relatively unproven frequency – UHF – was chosen because it sometimes has long range without a battery

Wal-Mart is making RFID data it reads available to suppliers within 30 minutes though its Retail Link extranet website

Wal-Mart gets a payback, even though there are technical problems

Pallet/case tagging – largest volume in 2006/7


IDTechEx

… happening faster than most think

Pfizer Viagra in US NOW, ten other drug brands by end 2006. FDA mandate expected 2006/7

Library – 50 million RFID labels yearly already, laundry, large retail items, parts in manufacture, aircraft parts, luxury goods – ongoing

DHL trials on courier parcels – tender taken for one billion yearly

Item Level Tagging – largest volume after 2008


IDTechExItem level RFID labelling is the big opportunity

Item

Pallet/ case a few billion

2006 2008 2010

0.5 billion

27 billion


IDTechEx

National ID – contactless cards (HF) $2-3 each

E.g. Italy – 50 millionU.K. – 58 million?India – 600 million?China – 970 million (anticipated completion 2010)

Electronic passport labels (HF) $3-4 each400mE.g. Australia (2004 roll out)

USA (2004 roll out) ThailandEurope etc.

Large niche opportunities for label and label-like RFID


IDTechEx

Conveyances (e.g. pallets, containers), baggage etc – smart labels (UHF)

Potential demand 35 billion per year. E.g.• Pallets and cases for consumer packaged goods• Airline baggage (2 billion yearly e.g. McCarran Airport, 100m) plus

airline cargo

“5 cent tag price needed to tag all conveyances”

Procter & Gamble, Coca Cola

Tens of Billions

Billions 10c

5c

Hot applications driving volume to 2015


IDTechEx

First high volume retail products are expensive itemseg computers, printers, white goods, apparel, drugs etc

Next will come other expensive products plus high shrinkage productseg DVDs, CDs, razors, batteries, perfume, cigarettes

“One cent tag price needed to tag most items” Unilever, Procter & Gamble

“Apparel and footwear economically tagged at today’s prices” Accenture

2016: <10% of products/primary packages carry an RFID smart label (in addition to a barcode).

Progression of item level tagging


IDTechEx

1. Printing of the antennas at UHF (around 900MHz) and above – mainly screen then gravure

2. Printing antennas at lower frequencies – some screen but faster printing of thick, high definition patterns needed

3. Printing the replacement for the silicon chip –Thin Film Transistor Circuits TFTCs – exploring offset litho, gravure, flexo, ink jet

4. Wild card – ink stripes flexo, ink jet

The Printing of RFID


IDTechEx

EAS (Electronic Article Surveillance 1 to 4 cents)Acoustomagnetic, swept RF (LC), electromagnetic.

Chipless RFID (0.1 to 200 cents)

For highest volume – TFTCs, ink stripes (many others)

Passive chip RFID (10 to 800 cents)

Ticket, label, card. Chip powered by the reader.

Active chip RFID (with battery from $1 to $100)

Long range (m), real time location, sensors.

Emits continuous signal for positioning.

Increasing cost &sophistication

Technology overview


IDTechExHow to make high volume RFID tags today

• The only fully proven technology involves a silicon chip and an antenna

• Choose between putting the chip on a strap then putting the strap on the antenna or putting the chip directly on the antenna

STRAP


IDTechExChoose substrate and antenna technology

Experimental screen printed UHF antenna on low grade card. Chip is applied on a strap

Polyester film is the most popular substrate at present. Antenna production is still often done by subtractive processes such as copper or aluminium etching but additive processes such as printing are more economical


IDTechEx

125KHz=LF 13.56MHz=HF UHF 2.45GHz

Inductive antenna - flooding Electric antenna - beaming

Passive RFID:Main operating frequencies

A coil talks to a coil – high conductivity and

accurate shape needed

A rod like “dipole” on the tag – many shapes for different

applications but poor conductance and resolution OK


IDTechEx

• Frequency characteristics

– Directionality of tags

– Range

– Tag size

– Antenna shape

– Radio regulations (e.g. global variances)

• Application environment

• Data on tag or network

• Read-only or read-write

• Multi-tag reading

• Healthcare: absolute performance criteria

• Cause dangerous interference in e.g. hospitals and airports

RFID challenges and considerations


IDTechEx

• Tags Dead on Arrival (DoA) from supplier!– Some cases reports of >20%

• Tags dead on touch (static electricity)

• Severe problems with water and metal, especially at UHF

• Need to print antennas at high speed with little ink – so they are cheap and do not crack

• Range depends on antenna design and size and environment – many different antenna designs needed

RFID Challenges and Considerations –problems with the UHF types chosen for pallets, cases and airline baggage


IDTechEx

FREQUENCIES – good things

125-135kHz 13.56MHz UHF GHz

Round corners 1m range Longest Long rangerange High data rate

Through most things Tolerant of metal (up to 10m Smallest, and fluids without battery) cheapest tag

No radiation problem Standardised

No reflection problem CONVEYANCES, VEHICLES, LIBRARY,LAUNDRY, ITEM LEVEL TAGGING,

Cheaper electronics BANKNOTES, ERROR PREVENTION,SECURE ACCESS, AIRPORT BAGGAGE

ANIMALS, BEER BARRELS,GAS CYLINDERS, SHOES OF MARATHON RUNNERS


IDTechEx

125-135 kHz (LF) 13.56MHz (HF)

Range usually under 1m

(signal drops as cube of

distance)

Slow data transfer

Bulky tag e.g. “bullet” or

“button” at 125KHz

Easily reflected or absorbed (read reliability problems with metal and fluids)

Health issues

Busy frequencies

Large tag for a few cms range

Range is unpredictableExpensive reader

Negatives become more extreme

Negatives become more extreme

FREQUENCIES – bad things

UHF 2.45GHz

Best compromise for most appllcations.

55% of tags ever made are HF and over 70% will be in 2016


IDTechEx

2016 2006 1. 13.56MHz

1. 13.56MHz

2. UHF (but the largest number)

2. UHF

Value of sales shifts to UHF being more important but still number two

Cards (credit cards, secure access, national ID etc), tickets,

library, laundry, drugs, postal, passports,

most other items, many conveyances

Pallets, cases, airline baggage, some conveyances and vehicles


IDTechEx

© IDTechEx

UHF is exceptionally sensitive to absorbent or reflective material even if it is not obscuring the (big) tag. Vast number of different antennas for different applications and still inadequate reads and often range

© IDTechEx

UHF is exceptionally sensitive to absorbent or reflective material even if it is not obscuring the (big) tag. Vast number of different antennas for different applications and still inadequate reads and often range

UHF tags need very different antennas for different applications


IDTechEx

Solve some of the remaining problems

• HF tags sometimes have screen printed antennas but they are bigger and have less range. Make them in high volume, cheaper and better• UHF tags are too large for highest volume item level and are too expensive

Good news – both UHF and HF silicon chip RFID labels will get down to 5 cents in billions and may get down to 3 cents in much larger quantities. Fully printed versions will eventually be one cent or less


IDTechExIt’s tough to handle the new very small chips

This is the enormous old 0.3 mm version

The new Hitachi Mew chip in 2006

0.15mm across, 7.5 µm thick

• No supply famines?

• No brittleness problems

• Can go in paper etc.

• Very low cost – potentially

one cent naked in tens of billions


IDTechEx

Acoustomagnetic 35 million sold

Remote magnetics Simple Electromagnetic Radiation hard. Thinnest option,

Barkhausen effect 70 million sold. Very secure

Surface Acoustic Wave (SAW) < 1M sold, Meets standards. Radiation hard

Transistorless Diode based Suitable for insect tracking

circuits Coil-capacitor (LC) Hundreds of thousands sold.

Thin and robust

Transistor circuits Polymer Electronics Printable onto products. Meets standards.

Silicon film High frequencies possible

Develop chipless tags – the end game for highest volumes


IDTechEx

FIRST GENERATION: Closed systems i.e. single service provider, no standards, usually little memory -anticounterfeiting, antitamper, secure access, product diversion, in house- track and trace, automated error prevention.Acoustomagnetic, electromagnetic, LC Array

SECOND GENERATION: Open systems i.e. multiple service provider, global standards e.g. EPC. Barcode replacement and more -SAW and later polymer TFTCs and maybe thin film silicon TFTCs and maybe the secret VTT/Panipol printed polyanilene label which has 96 bits read only but only at a few mm range and needs movement.

Develop entirely printed chipless tags – the end game for highest volumes


IDTechEx

• Concealed printable memory for item level identification.

• Compliant with RFID EPCTM Tag Data Standards*

• Integrated to the package structure

• Can be integrated to other functionalities– Tamper evidence, temperature

sensing• Short range reading method

(range up to ~mm’s)– A local electric field generated by

a reading device– HIDE is decoded in less than a

second when it passes through the field

*Defined by EPCglobal IncTM

RFID without transistorsHidden Electronic Product Code (HidE)

lllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll


IDTechEx

50+ companies

Xerox, Toshiba, Plastic Logic, Epson, Canon,, IBM, PolyIC, OrganicID, 3M…

13.56MHz EPC label in 2007

Printed thin film transistor circuits


IDTechExExperimental fully printed RFID labels - insulating,

semiconducting, conducting and protective patterns

Offset litho, flexo and gravure being tried


IDTechEx

2006 2008 2012 2015

Billions of tags 0.1 3 100 550

IDTechEx forecast for item level tags

45% chipless?99% labels


IDTechEx

ReportsRFID Forecasts, Players, Opportunities 2006-

2016Active RFID 2006-2016

Item Level RFIDReal Time Location Systems 2006-2016

ConferencesRFID Smart Labels Europe, London 19-20 Sept

Printed Electronics USA 5-6 Dec The RFID Knowledgebase – World’s largest database of RFID

in actionOver 1800 case studies listed and growing every month. Covering more than 1900 companies, 68 countries

Learn from the successes and failures of otherswww.idtechex.com

Tel: + 44 (0) 1223 813703

For further information read:

Consulting – Publications – Conferences © IDTechEx Ltd IDTechEx RFID and the Printing Industry A ten year view Dr Peter [email protected] IDTechEx.

Documents

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