Revolutions in Enrichment - Welcome to ENS - European Nuclear Society

1

Revolutions in Enrichment

Presentation to the

European Nuclear Conference – Manchester

Paul Harding – URENCO

11 December 2012

2

Lifetime fuel cost analysis for a Gen III reactor (based on average published 2011 long-term prices)

Uranium Conversion

Enrichment Fabrication

The Nuclear Fuel Supply Chain

48%

4%

34%

14%

Uranium Mining

Conversion

Electricity

Enrichment

Fuel

Fabrication

Nuclear Power

Plant

Transmission &

Distribution

3

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

MSWU @ 0.22 wt% U235 tails

*includes SWU equivalent of MOX supply

Low

Reference

High

Alternatives to LEU fuel:

Natural Uranium GCR/PHWR

Thorium fuels

HTR fuels (<20wt% U235)

Mixed Oxide + RepU

Global Enrichment Demand World Nuclear Association 2011 Market Report (post-Fukushima)

~9% of nuclear generation

is non-LEU

~2% is MOX fuel

4

How to do uranium isotope separation

• Calutron No

• Gas diffusion Yes

• Gas centrifuge Yes

• Laser (AVLIS/MLIS) No

• Laser (SILEX) Not yet

Commercially

Deployed?

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Gas Diffusion

Characteristics:

• Low separation efficiency requires hundreds of stages

• High electricity consumption

• Significant uranium hold-up in cascades

• Fixed capacity - not modular

Gas diffusion stage

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Gas Centrifuge

Characteristics:

• Improved separation efficiency

• Requires thousands of

machines to be arranged in

cascades

• Low electricity consumption

• Negligible uranium hold-up in

cascades

• Modular capacity

• Technology development

dependent on structural

materials

Single gas centrifuge

7

Laser Separation MLIS technology

Characteristics:

• Potentially high separation efficiency

• Low electricity consumption predicted

• Requires cells to be arranged in cascades

• Technology development dependent on laser reliability

MLIS isotope cell

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Technology development

Generation Technology: Calutron

Gaseous diffusion

Generation Technology: Early gas centrifuges

Enhanced gaseous diffusion

1st

2nd

Generation Technology: Advanced ultra-centrifuges;

Laser (MLIS, AVLIS, SILEX) 3rd

1940s to 1960s 1970s to 1990s 2000 on

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Commercial technology choices

Russian Centrifuge

URENCO/ETC Centrifuge

Commercially deployed

China: CNNC

Centrifuge (domestic

design)

American Centrifuge:

USEC/DOE/B&W/Toshiba

GE-H/SILEX/Cameco

Under qualification

Japan: JNFL Rokkasho

Advanced Centrifuge

Brazil: INB Centrifuge

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Centrifuge versus diffusion Capacity development

1992 2002 2012

~52 ~49 ~58 mSWU

GDP

GC

US DOE

EURODIF

CNNC

Minatom

URENCO

JNFL

CNNC

USEC

EURODIF

CNNC

Rosatom

URENCO

JNFL

CNNC

USEC

CNNC

Rosatom

URENCO AREVA

JNFL

CNNC, INB

Year

Enricher

40%

60%

61%

39%

86%

14%

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JNFL

CNNC

Global SWU Supply Capacities as at end 2012

USEC

Rosatom

INB

Areva

6,000tSW

<50tSW

2,300tSW

<100tSW

27,700tSW

14,700tSW

2,500tSW

2,200tSW

World Total Capacity

~58,000tSW

12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Rosatom URENCO AREVA USEC CNNC JNFL INB

Centrifuge Diffusion

Global SWU Supply Capacities as at end 2012

World Total Capacity

~58mSWU

NB. Surplus over demand

used for tails upgrading/

underfeeding

mSWU

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Regional Enrichment Markets Localisation of supply vs market trends

Traditional markets Current supply

(No. of plants)

Future markets Demand trends

United States 1 GDP

1 GC

United States

Western Europe 4 GC Western Europe

Former Eastern Bloc 4 GC Eastern Europe

Eurasia and Russia

East Asia 3 GC

1 GDP

China and Korea

Japan

South Asia

Southern Hemisphere 1 GC Southern Hemisphere

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URENCO’s own revolution

• In 2000, URENCO was still the smallest of

the global enrichers

• The company made a commitment to

industry’s future with new capacity at four

sites

• By 2010 had become the largest Western

enricher and the only one to build on two

continents

• In 2006 LES was the first recipient of a

Combined Construction and Operation

License from the US NRC in 30 years

• Turned plans into reality in under 7 years

• Has maintained geographical diversity and

component-level choice within the supply

chain

• Now the largest SWU supplier to end user

customers, with 16.9mSWU installed

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URENCO’s evolution

• A 50-year journey of centrifuge technology and plant

development

• 6th generation machines (TC21) now installed at two plants

(UD and UUSA)

• The most powerful machines in commercial operation

• Current machines: TC12, TC12+ and TC21

Pilot

Plants

1st Generation

Demonstration

2nd

Generation

3rd

Generation

4th

Generation

5th

Generation

6th

Generation

Long

Term

0

100

200

300

Relative

Costs %

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Relative

Unit Output

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Capenhurst (UK) Almelo (Netherlands) Gronau (Germany) Eunice (USA) Planned

tSW

URENCO Group commits to expanding its capacity to meet customer demand

URENCO’s capacity build-up

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 2015

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The minds behind URENCO’s

ultra-centrifuge

Gernot Zippe (1917-2009) Jacob Kistemaker (1917-2010) Stanley Whitley (1928-)

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An industry at the crossroads

• The enrichment services industry is going through a period of restructuring

• Partly driven by need for capacity retirement and renewal

• Otherwise in response to declining or stagnant traditional markets

• Growth markets may demand packaged products or technology transfer

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Market issues faced by enrichers (1)

Dark clouds

• Fukushima has created market uncertainty and

stalled the global nuclear renaissance

• Industry was in mid-investment cycle, replacing old

technology and gearing up for growth

• On a critical pathway for new types of 3rd generation

technology deployment

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Market issues faced by enrichers (2)

New dawns

• A shift in centre of gravity for nuclear trade

• Political will for new nuclear is now primarily focused

on BRIC and Middle Eastern and N-11 economies