REVISTA ROMÂNĂ DE STATISTICĂ - SUPLIMENT ......suggestions regardless of the person’s location. Crowdsourcing is one model of using people’s ideas for improving everyday business,

Institutul Na ţional Societatea Română de Statistică de Statistică

REVISTA ROMÂN Ă DE STATISTICĂ - SUPLIMENT -

ROMANIAN STATISTICAL REVIEW

- SUPPLEMENT -

• Scientific research Themes/Studies • Papers at the National Seminary “Octav Onicescu”

2014 / Nr. 7

Autorii poart ă întreaga răspundere pentru conţinutul materialelor publicate, revista şi Societatea Română

de Statistică fiind exonerate de orice răspundere.

ISSN 2359-8972

Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 7/2014 3

Table of ContentsTable of ContentsTable of ContentsTable of Contents

Application of Crowdsourcing in Marketing ............................................ 7 Assist. Professor Tamara Vlastelica BAKIC, PhD

Assist. Professor Slavica Cicvaric KOSTIC, PhD

Assist. Lecturer Ema NESKOVIC, MSc

Romanian International Trade Evolution ............................................... 17 Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE, PhD.

Assoc. prof. Alexandru MANOLE, PhD.

Cristina SACALĂ, PhD. Student

The Assessment of the Agro-Climatic Parameters and Coefficients Employed in the Drought Evaluation ....................................................... 25

Assistant PhD Dana Maria (Oprea) CONSTANTIN

Assistant PhD Elena GRIGORE

Operationalization of the Work Behaviour Concept: Work Behaviour Self-Assessment Scale .............................................................. 32

Teaching assistant Ivana KOVAČEVIĆ, PhD

Professor Svetlana ČIZMI Ć, PhD

Professor Dobrivoje MIHAILOVIĆ, PhD

Evolution of the Inflation and Price Index .............................................. 48 Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE, PhD.

Assoc. prof. Aurelian DIACONU, PhD.

Ligia PRODAN, PhD. Student

Ec. Emilia STANCIU

Three Twin Sciences, Born with the First Census .................................. 53 Associate Professor Gheorghe SĂVOIU, Ph.D. Lecturer Mariana BĂNUŢĂ, Ph.D. Lecturer Mihaela GADOIU, Ph.D.

Theoretical Aspects Concerning the Testing of the Significance of the Regression Model ............................................................................ 66

Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE, PhD.

Alexandru URSACHE, PhD. Student

Bogdan DRAGOMIR, PhD. Student

Georgeta BARDAŞU (LIXANDRU), PhD. Student Marius POPOVICI, PhD. Student


The System of Financial Analysis Indicators Applying to the Activity run by an Economic Agent ......................................................... 75

Lecturer Mădălina Gabriela ANGHEL PhD.

I.G. Duca: “Cooperation is a Mean Of Harmonization in the Fight between Capital and Labor” ........................................................... 84

Prof. Dan CRUCERU PhD

International Exchange of Goods and Services ....................................... 90 Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE, PhD.

Andreea Gabriela BALTAC, PhD Student

Zoica NICOLA, PhD Student

Daniel DUMITRESCU, PhD Student

Diana Valentina SOARE, PhD Student

Evolution of GDP: The Case of Romania ................................................ 98 Adina-Mihaela DINU PhD. Student

The Necessary E-Societal Management (E- Sm) Approach ................. 106 Nicolae COSTAKE

Statistical Delimitation of the Profile of Local Elections Candidate – An Applied Statistics Research ......................................... 115

Assoc. professor Gheorghe SĂVOIU, PhD

Assoc. professor Emil BURTESCU, PhD

Assist. Marian ŢAICU, PhD

The Model of W.F. Sharpe and the Model of the Global Regression Utilized for the Portfolio Selection ...................................... 124


Lecturer Mădălina Gabriela ANGHEL PhD.

Developments in Accounting for Environmental Expenditure ............ 132

Constantin MINDRICELU, PhD.

Some Considerations on Agricultural Exploitations ............................ 153

Amelia DIACONU, PhD Student


Aspects concerning the Verification of the Residual Normality and the Prediction of the Regression Model .......................................... 161


Prof. Radu Titus MARINESCU, PhD.

Assoc. prof. Alexandru MANOLE, PhD.

Ec. Emilia STANCIU

Marketing Decisions in Terms of Consumer Behavior ........................ 168

Assoc. Prof. Dan NASTASE PhD.

Master Student Cristian STOICIU

Student Denisa OPREA

Sports Journalism and the Quality of Sport and Sport Culture in Romania .................................................................................................... 174

Assistant teacher Cristian GHENA, PhD Student



Application of Crowdsourcing in MarketingApplication of Crowdsourcing in MarketingApplication of Crowdsourcing in MarketingApplication of Crowdsourcing in Marketing

Assist. Professor Tamara Vlastelica BAKIC, PhD Assist. Professor Slavica Cicvaric KOSTIC, PhD,

Assist. Lecturer Ema NESKOVIC, MSc University of Belgrade

Abstract Nowadays, a growing number of companiesis focusing on cost

optimisation and lowering labour expenses. In this climate, companies are turning to talented and educated individuals who are ready to participate in their projects. Whether it is for profit or non-profit purposes, or it is done by using online technologies or without them, this new business model is called crowdsourcing. This term is used for describing outsourcing process that focuses on the power of people for solving different types of tasks. The aim of this paper is to define crowdsourcing and its difference from similar models such as open innovation, user innovation, open source and outsourcing. The authors put focus on the application of crowdsourcing in marketing, particularly in market research, product development and promotion, as well as on examples of successful practice in these areas. Finally, the conclusions regardingfurther use of this model will be presented by taking a closer look atits advantages and limitations. Key words: crowdsourcing, business model, marketing, market research, product development, promotion

1. Introduction The introduction of Web 2.0.opposite to the traditional Internet has

marked the beginning of new business era that companies are currently adapting to. Le Deuff (2007) and O’Reilly (2005) describe Web 2.0 as “the utilisation dimension and not to the physical network that supports it”, which tends to encourage sharing between users and collaboration that opens many new options for everyday business. By using Web 2.0, a company can switch from outsourcing activities to other countries or firms specialised in certain field to engaging individuals in its everyday activities (Nešković et. al., 2012). This model enables companies to gather ideas and suggestions regardless of the person’s location. Crowdsourcing is one model of using people’s ideas for improving everyday business, as well as gathering ideas for future projects of the company.


The concept of crowdsourcing has been present for a while, but the first use of the term was in an article published in Wired magazine in 2006 and written by Jeff Howe and Marc Robinson. Since 2006 the word “crowdsourcing” has been mentioned many times in the growing Internet community, in magazines and books. The term “crowdsourcing” has been discussed by Dahlander and Magnusson, (2008), and Agerfalk and Fitzgerald, (2008) and it has only been mentioned as an example of Web 2.0 by Tapscott and William (2007) and Albors et al. (2008). “The power of the crowd” (Howe, 2006) is related to many different versions of the contribution that a crowd makes, as well as different areas of use. Therefore, it is very important to distinguish crowdsourcing from similar models of using the contribution of a crowd. Most commonly, the terms mistaken for crowdsourcing are open innovation, user innovation, open source and outsourcing.

Open innovation and user innovation start from the same point as crowdsourcing – in the world of distributed knowledge, companies should not rely on their own research and development, but they should decide to gather some of their ideas and R&D functions from other companies and individuals. Open innovation is related to cooperation between firms, and user innovation is focusing on cooperation between product users who are solving issues with final products. Both open and user innovation are focusing on innovations and originality, while crowdsourcing is not restricted to innovations and often provides solutions that are not innovative at all. Open source can be explained as the application of crowdsourcing in IT industry. Howe (2008) describes crowdsourcing source as “an application of the open source principles to other industries”. Brabham (2008) adds to that by saying that “it is obvious that crowdsourcing is not restricted to software development”. While it is obvious that there are undisputable similarities in the business model of open source and crowdsourcing, crowdsourcing is a wider area and has a wider application than solely IT industry. The basic process of crowdsourcing and outsourcing is the same, with a client company that is seeking help from another subject. The basic difference between these two is that outsourcing is mainly focused on getting support and help from institutions, while crowdsourcing focuses on getting ideas from individuals.

2. Definition of crowdsourcing Crowdsourcing is composed of two words: crowd and outsourcing

and basically it means outsourcing to the crowd. It was first used on an Internet forum, but it was widely popularised by Howe and Robinson after


they published an article in Wired magazine. Howe (2008) gives definition of crowdsourcing: “Simply defined, crowdsourcing represents the act of a company or institution taking a function once performed by employees and outsourcing it to an undefined (and generally large) network of people in the form of an open call.” He adds that “the crucialprerequisite is the use of the open call format and the wide network of potential labourers”. In a book he recently published and in posts on his blog (2008 and 2009), Howe gives two more precise definitions of crowdsourcing – The White Paper Version, and The Soundbyte Version. In The White Paper Versionhe describes crowdsourcing as “the act of taking a job traditionally performed by a designated agent (usually an employee) and outsourcing it to an undefined, generally large group of people in the form of an open call”, while The Soundbyte Versiondescribes crowdsourcing as “the application of Open Source principles to fields outside of software”.

This is the basic process of crowdsourcing: First of all, acompany identifies processes and activities that need to be improved by outsourcing them. Instead of turning to another company for help, or trying to complete these actions within a company, they are “released to a crowd of outsiders who are invited to perform the task on the firm’s behalf for a stipulated fee” (Whitla, 2009). It can be done in two ways: by limiting the crowd to a group of people with qualifications of previous experience in the area, or by issuing an open call to all interested parties. These two options can be combined by limiting the call to the people from the area of expertise or to people who are most likely to have skills for successfully completing the task. Whitla (2009) notices that “sometimes a single task can be completed by many different users and each can be paid if they successfully complete the task”. This sentence sums up the idea of crowdsourcing – enabling talented individuals to get paid for the jobs they do in their own dynamic and by using available resources. It also explains why crowdsourcing is becoming widely used: companies are able to get the solutions they need by paying less and being able to choose who they are hiring for the job.

Whitla (2009) describes the crowdsourcing process by using an example of Amazon’s Mechanical Turk. Amazon’s Turk was named after Hungarian nobleman Wolfgang von Kemplen who invented “the Turk” - the first machine capable of beating human at a chess game. Mechanical Turk is a platform that provides simple tasks - HIT’s (human intelligence tasks)to individuals. These tasks require very little time and effort to complete, but they cannot be done by computers. Therefore, individuals are solving them and getting paid from couple of cents up to a US dollar, depending on their effort. Whitla (2009) uses HIT’s to describe the process of crowdsourcing.


Figure no. 1: Crowdsourcing process

Source: Whitla, P. (2009), Crowdsourcing and its application in marketing activities

The basic model of crowdsourcing is the same and it is shown in

Figure 1. There are alterations to this model depending on the industry and the type of tasks, but the idea of paying the crowd to complete certain processes remains as previously explained.

3. Application of crowdsourcing A call for crowdsourcing can be published in form of an open call

orit can be limited to a certain number of people, as was previously mentioned. The question that arises is: What types of tasks can be crowdsourced? There are three types of tasks that can be outsourced to a crowd: routine tasks, complex tasks and creative tasks (Schenk and Guittard (2009)).

Routine tasks are a type of tasks that can be done very quickly and easily while requiring minimum time, such as data collection or marking text and images. This type of effort is usually awarded by micropayments. A


perfect example of this routine are ReCaptcha, Open Street Map (OSM) and TxtEagle. ReCaptcha is widely used by websites for text recognition, when it is necessary to distinguish virtual robots from humans.OSM is used for collecting geographical data for creating a world map. Finally, TxtEaglehelps mobile phone users to complete tasks by sending a text message. Routine tasks are, in most cases, published as an open call, given that almost anyone can participate in solving them.

Complex tasks that require more skills and knowledge are often limited to a closed group of people. This type of tasks can be solved inboth profit and non-profit sector, and the companies pay more due to the effort required to complete the task successfully.

Finally, the third group of tasksare creative tasks. This is the earliest type of crowdsourcing which startedlong before the Internet, in the form of designer contests and competitions.

Companies usually crowdsource creative tasks with limitations only in the form of the solution that is required. This way the original and creative solutions are provided to the company. Monetary compensation for these tasks depends on the type of task, but usually these tasks are paid the most, varying from couple of hundred to couple of thousand US dollars.

4. Application of crowdsourcing in marketing activities

Even though there are many areas where crowdsourcing can be used, this paper will focus on the application of crowdsourcing in marketing. The main reason to do so is due to the fact that a growing number of firms is turning to customers and focusing on their requirements and preferences. The best way to do it is by turning to crowds for inspiration and ideas by using crowdsourcing.

According to Dawson (2011), there are several ways of applying crowdsourcing in marketing. These are shown in Table 1.

Table no. 1: Marketing application of crowdsourcing Application Description

Content creation Generating marketing content such as videos, images or copy.

Idea generation Creating ideas to identify or develop marketing initiatives.

Product development Identifying insights to enhance existing products or develop new ones.

Customer insights Gathering customer perspectives on current or potential products or marketing initiatives.


Application Description Customer engagement

Building greater participation and affiliation with the brand and company.

Customer advocacy Tapping customers to spread word to their personal networks about products or services.

Pricing Gaining insights on attitudes to possible pricing strategies.

Source: Dawson, R. (2011), Getting Results From Crowds: The definitive guide to using crowdsourcing to grow your business

Content creation is widely crowdsourced by giving customers a chance to provide content in different forms. Idea generation has been one of the most useful applications of crowdsourcing, given that there is a number of companies that benefited from having creative ideas coming from the crowd.

One of the best examples is Starbucks’s portal My Starbucks Idea, which has generated over 100.000 ideas for different aspects of business. Some of these ideas are related to the third area of application – product development. Dell’s IdeaStorm portal is another great example of company benefiting from its loyal and creative customers, as well as people with good ideas for new products. Customer insight, engagement and advocacy are a type of crowdsourcing primarily focusing on a narrow crowd – the customers, given that it is required to be a user of a product/service to be able to contribute in these areas. Finally, the question of pricing is often resolved by asking the people how much are they willing to pay for a certain product or a service.

Whitla (2009) was researching Human Intelligence Tasks (HIT’s) and he identified the fields of marketing that are most suitable for their use, taking into consideration the nature of the tasks. By reviewing literature and already published HIT’s, he singles out marketing research, product development and advertising and promotion as areas of marketing where crowdsourcing is most successfully used.

4.1. Use of crowdsourcing in market research

The most common form of applying crowdsourcing in market research is collecting data through surveys and questionnaires. Respondents are given a number of simple questions and the results are later used for creating product strategy. Given that these surveys provide monetary compensation to respondents, there is one big problem when using


crowdsourcing for research: providing false data. Whitla (2009) notices that firms may restrict online surveys to a targeted population and that there is no way to prevent someone from imitating demographic to earn extra money. The payment may affect responses in another way – by keeping in mind that the company is paying them, many respondents may provide responses that represent an unrealistic image of a company or so called “desired responses”.

The best way to prevent this from happening is by using complex questionnaires that require some fields to be filled in own words, as well as requiring a minimum number of words. Poynter (2013) argues that, in recent years, many companies are researching the market by placing projects on crowdfunding sites to see if people are willing to back it with their money. The clear distinction between people’s opinions and their will to pay for something can be noticed, which is a very useful pointer for future success of the project.

A popular example of using crowdsourcin in market research is Springwise, a company that keeps a network of over 8.000 professionals who contact the firm when they discover an interesting product, service or a business model. The company later sells the trend predictions to interested parties. Kaggle.com is another popular example, as the website gathers information from the crowds and does predictive analysis based on it.

4.2. Use of crowdsourcing in product development

Product development based on crowdsourced ideas is a constantly growing branch. Even though open innovation is most commonly used in product development, as companies are looking for innovative solutions to their issues, crowdsourcing is widely used as well. Von Hippel (1998, 2006) states that firms have been using consumer inputs for a long time and that manufacturers have been collecting inputs for developing new products for years. In crowdsourcing for product development there are three key differences to open innovation. Firstly, it is not limited only to customers, but includes potential customers or anyone willing to assist and provide their ideas. Secondly, in enables companies to get direct feedback, without the third party (such as distributors) involved in the process. Finally, companies can select specific areas where the improvements should be made and limit enquires to these areas. There are numerous examples of applying crowdsourcing in product development, including a crowdsourcing company InnoCentive, specialised in offering solutions to R&D problems to companies. Their clients include Proctor and Gamble, Boeing, DuPont, and they offer up to 100.000 US dollars as a winning prize for best solutions.


4.3. Use of crowdsourcing in advertising and promotion

Third most common use of crowdsourcing is in advertising and promotional activities. This model of crowdsourcing has become very popular in the past couple of years, given that its main advantage is enabling companies to save a lot of money and use the crowd to spread their message. The companies with bigger advertising budgets have been collaborating with the crowds for a while by including them in projects in the form of an open call, or even by paying them to post positive comments on blogs and websites. In a recent article, Kirby (2013) mentions six new modes of advertising for the future, and crowdsourcing is one of them. Her article focuses on a successful example of Oreo’s campaign “Daily Twist”. The campaign was based on launching a 100-day series of cookies inspired by the news nominated by the crowd. The campaign resulted in 4.400% rise in sharing Oreo’s Facebook page in just three months, with a significant rise in sales.

Crowdsourcing can be used in promoting or re-building brand identity of an institution, or even a location, as was the case with Connecticut (Birkner, 2013). With limited marketing budget and expensive media markets in targeted areas (especially Boston and New York City), the Office of Tourism switched to a creative approach by inviting locals to take part in a campaign “What’s Your Connecticut Story?” in February 2012. The campaign focused on getting personal experiences from Connecticut and promoting them on a website and a Facebook page. Following a success of this campaign, a new campaign “Still Revolutionary” was launched in May 2012. These two campaigns generated a total of 1.1 billion media impressions, 140.000 Facebook fans and 18% increase in awareness of Connecticut as a place to visit among neighbouring states. The successful campaign tends to become a tradition, given that another Fan Favourite campaign was launched in April 2013.

5. Conclusion

This paper presented many areas where crowdsourcing can be applied, even though it is a business model that is still in its developing stages. The increase of competition and limited budgets are some of the drivers that will help crowdsourcing become widely applied and popular model in the future. The authors presented successful examples of application of crowdsourcing in marketing; however, there are downsides to this model as well, and in the future the improvements must be taken into consideration.


First and the biggest problem arises from the sample – even though it is common to believe that more people guarantee better results, it may not be the case, especially when applying crowdsourcing in market research. This can prevent relevant information from getting to the companies. That is why it is important to work on improving mechanisms for filtering information and choosing participants. There are issues and limitations regarding the areas of expertise and qualifications required to successfully participate in crowdsourcing. Further research should focus on participants and better segmentation and profiling, so that results they provide can be improved.

Further use of crowdsourcing in marketing is heading towards social media and the use of social networks, as the source of the crowd, as well as the channel for placing a message and implementing marketing activities. References Agerfalk, P, Fitzgerald, B. (2008) – “Outsourcing to an unknown

workforce: exploring open sourcing as a global sourcing”, MIS Quarterly, 32(2), (p. 385-409)

Albors, J, Ramos, J.C, Hervas. J.L. (2008) – “New learning network paradigms: Communities of objectives, crowdsourcing, wikis and open source”, International Journal of Information Management, (p. 194-202)

Birkner, C. (2013) – “A “Revolutionary” Rebrand”, Marketing News, May 2013, (p. 8-10)

Brabham, D. (2008) – “Crowdsourcing as a model for problem solving: An Introduction and Cases”, Convergence, The International Journal of Research into New Media Technologies, 14(1), (p. 75-90)

Dahlander, L, Magnusson, M. (2008) – “How do firms make use of open source communities?”, Long Range Planning, 41, (p. 629-649)

Dawson, R. (2011) – “Getting Results From Crowds: The definitive guide to using crowdsourcing to grow your business”, Advanced Human Technologies Inc, ISBN-13: 978-0984783809

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Howe, J. (2006) – “The rise of crowdsourcing”, Wired, 14(6) Howe, J. (2008) – “Crowdsourcing”, Crown Publishing Group, New York Kirby, J. (2013) – “Creative That Cracks the Code”, Harvard Business

Review, March 2013


Neskovic, E, Pavicevic, S, Dadic, J (2012) – “Crowdsourcing as a platform for innovative business and marketing approaches”, Symorg 2012 proceedings, ISBN 978-86-7680-255-5, (p. 1150-1155)

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Tapscott, D, William, A.D. (2007) – “Wikinomics”, Pearson Education Vivacqua A.S., Borges M.R.S. (2012) – “Taking advantage of collective

knowledge in emergency response systems”, Jurnal of Network and Computer Aplications, 35, (p. 189-198)

Von Hippel, E. (1998) – “The Sources of Innovation”, London and New York: Oxford University Press

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Romanian International TrRomanian International TrRomanian International TrRomanian International Trade Evolutionade Evolutionade Evolutionade Evolution

Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE, PhD. Academy of Economic Studies

„Artifex” University of Bucharest Assoc. prof. Alexandru MANOLE, PhD.

Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest „Artifex” University of Bucharest

Cristina SACALĂ, PhD. Student Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

Abstract This paper describes the evolution of the international trade during

the first three months of 2014, compared to the similar period of 2013. The focus is set on the analysis of structure and dynamics. The results of the analysis reveal the overall evolution of foreign trade, the main factors that have contributed to the evolution, the structure on partner countries.

Key words: trade, factor, percentage, evolution, structure

For the first three months of 2014, the value of FOB exports reached the level of 12756.5 million euro. A comparison with the similar period of 2013 reveals an increase with 10.1%

The dynamic and structural analysis of exports1, depending on the CN sections outlines increases for sections ”Mineral products”- with 2.0 percentage points, ”Vegetable products” - with 1.5 percentage points and decreases for “Base metals and articles of base metals” - with 1.9 percentage points, “Chemicals products” - with 1.1 percentage points.

The exports belonging to the sector “machinery and mechanical appliances; electrical equipment; sound and image recorders and reproducers”, takes the first position in the hierarchy, with a quota of 25.8% of total exports for the first trimester of 2014. Compared to the period 1.I-31.III 2013, an increase of 10.7% was recorded. The sector has the leading position in total section, with a percentage of 61.2% and also in total exports, with a percentage of 15.8%.

1 Anghel, M.G. et. al. (2012) – “Production and Trade of Goods”, Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim II/2012


Also, it can be observed that six sections of the Combined Nomenclature hold 71.5% of total exports, as seen in the chart below:

Data source: National Institute of Statistics, International Trade Statistics no. 3/2014

The second position is held by the section “Vehicles and associated transport equipment” with a weight of 16.8% in total exports. Inside this section, the sector “Vehicles, tractors and other ground vehicles” accounted for 88.1% of total section and 14.8% of total exports. The section “Base metals and articles of base metals” has the third place as weight in total exports. The comparison with Q1 2013 reveals a decrease of 9.9%.

The main position in the structure of this section is taken by the chapters “Pig-iron, iron and steel”, a weight of 30.7% of total section and 2.7% of total exports and, respectively, “Pig-iron, iron and steel products”, with a percentage of 35.6% of total section and a weight of 3.1% in total exports Furthermore, the comparison between data recorded during Q1 2014 as against Q1 2013 allows to draw the conclusion that exports to the other 27 European Union (EU28) countries increased with 10.3%, registering a weight of 71.1% in total exports.

The structure of export by partner countries includes a dataset related to 10 partner states accounting for 63.6% of total exports. These countries and their related weights are the following: Germany (19.9% of total exports), Italy (11.4%), France (7.0%), Hungary (5.0%), Turkey (4.6%), United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northen Ireland (4.2%), Bulgaria (3.5%), Russian Federation (3.1%), Spain (2.5%) and Poland (2.4%). These data are also synthesized in the chart below as relative weights:



In March 2014, FOB exports reached the level of 4480.4 million euro, which represents an increase 11.8% more compared with March 2013.

During the first trimester of 2014, CIF imports accounted for 13871.7 million euro, increasing with 9.6% as against the corresponding period of 2013.

The structural analysis of imports, shows the fact that six sections of the Combined Nomenclature hold 74.3% of total imports, as described in the chart below:



The two chapters of this section hold the following weights: the

products in the chapter ”Boilers, turbines, engines, mechanical devices and apparatus and parts thereof” hold 43.5% of total section and 11.8% of total imports, while the products under the chapter ”Electric machinery, appliances and equipment, TV sound and video reproduction and recording apparatus” recorded a weight of 56.5%, when considering the total section and 15.3% as compared to imports. As regarding the imports of chemicals products, an increase is observed when comparing with the corresponding period from the previous year, having a relative value of 3.7%. The share of this sector is 10.9% (in total imports).

There is to be noted that the sector “Pharmaceutical products” holds a significant share of the total section and imports, accounting for 41.7% and respectively 4.5%. The section related to imports of mineral products recorded a value by 22.0% than the amount for the first trimester of the previous year. The highest contributor to this evolution is the chapter “Fuel and mineral oils”, with a quota of 94.3%, and 10.0% in total imports. The data related to the section “Base metals and articles of base metals“, reveal a share of 10.4% in total imports, and also an increase with 9.3% compared to the similar period of the previous year. A special remark, however, regarding the contribution of the chapter “Pig-iron, iron and steel”, whose percentage quota is 34.1% of total section and respectively 3.6% of total imports, and also for the chapter “Pig-iron, iron and steel products”, who accounted for a share of 28.1% (in total section) and 2.9% of total imports. The section “vehicles and associated transport equipment” recorded an increase of 10.5% as against the first trimester of 2013. The chapter “Cars, tractors, other vehicles” has a significant share, which is 95.9% of total section and 7.7% of total imports. Another section that recorded increase was the “plastics, rubber, and articles thereof”, a growth with 6.9% as against Q1 2013. The weight of this sector in total imports is 7.2%.

Depending on the CN sections, the structural analysis reveals the major evolution in the import activity (comparison Q1 2014 as against Q1 2013):

“- increasing weight for section: “Mineral products” - with 1.1 percentage points;

- decreasing weight for section “Chemical products”- with 0.6 percentage points.”2 2 National Institute of Statistics, International Trade Statistical Bulletin no. 3/2014


The European position of Romania’s imports is characterized by a greater percentage than during the 1st trimester of 2013 (an increase by 8.1%). The share of imports from other 27 countries in the Eu28 panel was 75.4% in Q1 2014. The most important international trade partners during the 1st trimester of 2014 were Germany (18.8% of total imports), Italy (10.8%), Hungary (7.8%), France (6.4%), Poland (4.4%), Kazahstan /4.1%), Russian Federation (4.1%), China (3.8%), Austria (3.8%), Netherlands (3.5%). The partners listed in “top 10” amount for 67.5% of total imports. The relative contribution of partner countries is shown in the chart below:


In March 2014, the evolution of CIF imports represented a value of 5029.6 million euro, with 9.9% more compared with the corresponding period in 2013. The FOB-CIF trade balance during the 1st trimester of 2014 increased with 37.8 million euro compared with Q1 2013, reaching a value of 1115.2 million euro.

In 2013, the FOB exports indicator reached a value of 219121.6 million lei (49562.6 million euro), which represents an increase by 9.1%


from the year 2012, as value in Romanian lei and respectively by 10% as value in euro currency.

The analysis of dynamics and structure of exports3 outlines the contribution of three sections in Standard International Trade Classification (SITC Rev. 4), which together hold a share of 74.0% of total exports. Their contribution is reflected in the following chart:

The most important contributors to the structure of imports, according to SITC rev. 4, hold a quota of 79.8% of total imports. Their shares are presented in the following chart:

Data source: National Institute of Statistics, Statistical Bulletin no. 1/2014 The value of CIF imports indicator is 244334.7 million lei for the year

201, corresponding to 55264.5 million euro. Therefore, the indicator increased from 2012, by 0.2% as values in lei and by 1.0% as values in euro.

3 Anghel, M.G. (2010) – “Utilizarea modelelor econometrice în analizele economice”, Simpozionul ştiinţific internaţional „Necesitatea reformei economico – sociale a României în contextul crizei globale”, Editura Artifex, Bucureşti, 2010, pg. 145-151, ISBN 978-973-7631-71-8

Revista Român de Statistic - Supliment nr. 7/2014 23

Machinery and transport equipment (35.0%), manufactured products mainly classified by raw material (20.8%), chemicals and related products not elsewhere specified (14.1%) and mineral fuel, lubricants and connected materials (9.9%).

FOB exports, CIF imports and foreign trade operation balance during

December 2012 – December 2013

Data source: National Institute of Statistics, Statistical Bulletin no. 1/2014

In 2013, the international trade recorded a deficit of 25213.1 million lei (5701.9 million euro) in FOB/CIF prices. The comparison with the previous year reveals a decrease of 17774.9 million lei, corresponding to 3932.4 million euro.

Acknowledgement This work was cofinanced from the European Social Fund through

Sectoral Operational Programme Human Resources Development 2007-2013, project number POSDRU/159/1.5/S/134197 „Performance and excellence in doctoral and postdoctoral research in Romanian economics science domain”

Revista Român de Statistic - Supliment nr. 7/2014 24

References Anghel, M.G. (2010) – “Utilizarea modelelor econometrice în analizele

economice”, Simpozionul tiin ific interna ional „Necesitatea reformei economico – sociale a României în contextul crizei globale”, Editura Artifex, Bucure ti, 2010, pg. 145-151, ISBN 978-973-7631-71-8

Anghel, M.G. et. al. (2012) – “Production and Trade of Goods”, Revista Român de Statistic – Supliment Trim II/2012

Anghelache, C. (2013) – “România 2013. Starea economic sub povara efectelor crizei”, Editura Economic , Bucure ti

Anghelache, C. (2012) – “România 2012. Starea economic in criz perpetu ”, Editura Economic , Bucure ti

Anghelache, C. (2008) – “Tratat de statistic teoretic i economic ”, Editura Economic , Bucure ti

Goodwin, N.R. (2008) – “Macroeconomics for the Twenty-First Century”, Tufts University, series GDAE Working Papers no. 03-02

Voineagu,V. (2007) – „Economic And Social Evolution Of Romania During 1.I-28.II.2007 Period”, Theoretical and Applied Economics, Volume (Year): 06 (511) (supplement) (2007), Issue (Month): 07(511)(supplement) (June)

Anuarul statistic al României, edi iile 2002, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

*** Statistical Bulletin no. 1-12/2002, 1-12/2003, 1-12/2004, 1-12/2005, 1-12/2006, 1-12/2007, 1-12/2008, 1-12/2009, 1-12/2010, 1-12/2011, 1-12/2012, 1-12/2013, 1/2014, National Institute of Statistics *** National Institute of Statistics, International Trade Statistics no. 3/2014


The The The The Assessment Assessment Assessment Assessment of the of the of the of the AgroAgroAgroAgro----climatic climatic climatic climatic Parameters Parameters Parameters Parameters and and and and Coefficients Employed Coefficients Employed Coefficients Employed Coefficients Employed in the in the in the in the Drought Evaluation Drought Evaluation Drought Evaluation Drought Evaluation

Assistant PhD Dana Maria (Oprea) CONSTANTIN University of Bucharest, Faculty of Geography,

[email protected] Assistant PhD Elena GRIGORE

University of Bucharest, Faculty of Geography, [email protected]

Abstract The theme of the article is of theoretic and didactic nature,

providing the systematization of agro-climatic parameters and coefficients, necessary for the explanation and evaluation of the drought phenomenon, within a precise geographic region. Through interactions and consequences on a social level, economical and political, the drought phenomenon represents an environmental problem, which implies analyses on a global scale, regional, national and local, with the purpose of establishing some specific measures of prevention and control. Therefore, the correct employment of climatic data (elements, parameters and coefficients) represents an effective way of approaching the organization, management, analysis and contrasting of elaborated studies which have as a subject the characterization and detection of the aridity and/or drought phenomenon. The article is based on professional literature, acting as an inventory of the main agro-climatic parameters and coefficients utilised in the assessment of the drought phenomenon, on a national and international scale.

Key words: evaluation, agro-climatic coefficients, assessment, agro-climatic parameters, drought.

JEL Classification: Q 50, Q 54

1. Introduction The drought is a complex phenomenon, characterized by the

insufficiency or total absence of precipitations, large values of the saturation deficit and extreme temperatures, with a time coverage of between a few days up to several weeks or even months. The drought is firstly manifested in the air, also known as an atmospheric drought, and if this event holds on


for a long time, reducing the water reserves in the soil, the edaphic drought occurs.

The atmospheric or meteorological drought is depicted through time periods without precipitations, high air temperatures and excessive values of evapotranspiration, usually developing after ten consecutive days without precipitations.

The edaphic drought arises when the pedological cover cannot supply the necessary amount of water for the plants and consequently they start fading.

The mixed drought represents the association of the two types of drought, delivering the agricultural drought, since it determines the partial or total compromise of the harvest.

Within the Romanian territory, the droughts, in the majority of cases, are owed to the anticyclones formed in the arctic regions, bringing air masses with relatively low temperatures and a scarce content of water vapours (cca 5 mg/m³). Advancing southward, the arctic air is rapidly heated, and consequently the relative humidity drops and the saturation deficit rises considerably. Aside from the dynamic atmosphere the characteristics of the active surface have to be taken into consideration, like the orographic barrier role of Carpathian Mountains, thus the drought phenomenon even though can occur all year round and all over the agricultural regions of the country, it cannot arise simultaneously throughout the country and with the same intensity.

The drought period, after the Hellman’s definition, is the period of at least 10 days within the warm season (April – September) of the agricultural year, in which the precipitation quantity does not exceed ≥ 0,1 mm/day. Due to the complexity, the drought can be studied through various perspectives such as: meteorological, economical, hydrological, ecological, agro-climatologic and agricultural.

The article approaches the drought through an agro-climatologic perspective, in order to realize an inventory of the major agro-climatic parameters and coefficients, employed in the evaluation of the drought phenomenon.

The agro-climatology highlights the drought impact on agriculture, analyzing the climatic factors which condition the demand of an agricultural system or biotope for reaching the optimal biological productivity.

2. Materials and methods In the process of preparing this material a series of professional

literature was consulted. The drought event is studied through different


methods, of which we remind the spatial and temporal analysis of agro-climatic parameters, the agro-climatic coefficients implementation, and the graphic production of climatic-data.

3. Results and discussions In the development of a study on aridity and/or drought events

several criteria of identification and classification are employed, namely: - the analysis of precipitation fluctuations in time intervals correlated

with the primary phonologic phases of the harvest and the plats request in regards to water;

- the frequency of scarce pluviometric (arid) periods and dry intervals, after the Hellman criteria;

- droughty months and years – extreme and/or exceptional cases; - the spatial and temporal repartition, intensity and duration of agro-

climatic parameters; - agro-climatic coefficients.

From the above principles we will focus on the last two, due to our wish of producing an inventory of primary parameters and coefficients agro-climatic used in the evaluation of drought events.

The agro-climatic parameters utilised in the drought assessment define conditions or atmospheric phenomena which characterise the weather within a time frame.

The agro-climatic parameters which define exemplify and identify the development of singular and/or complex agricultural drought events are: - air temperature by means of diurnal, monthly, annual and multiannual

averages; diurnal, monthly, annual and multiannual maxima and minima, and cumulative temperature;

- soil temperature through diurnal medium at surface and at depths of 05, 10, 20, 40, 60, 80 and 100 cm;

- atmospheric precipitation by means of monthly and multiannual average quantities; variability of monthly and annual quantities; frequency of different monthly and annual amounts; maximum quantities fallen in 24, 48 and 72 hours; number of rainy days and optimal and critical limits of precipitation amounts on characteristic intervals specific for crops;

- parameters of thermal stress which define the „broil” phenomena as intensity of generation by unities of „broil” (∑Tmax≥32 ˚C) > 15 ˚C for VI month; > 20 ˚C for the VII and VIII months; > 70 ˚C for the time VI – VIII frame;


- parameters of thermal stress which identify the „broil” events as span of generation by number of broil days month/ agricultural interval/season or agricultural year –medium and extreme values of production; number of consecutive broil days/3 as minim threshold and ≥ 5 days consecutive, enduring „broil”;

- parameters of atmospheric stress by means of relative humidity of air < 30 – 40 % / month, V – VIII period;

- parameters of hydro stress by precipitations < 50 mm, IX – X; < 150 mm, XI – III and VI – VIII; < 450 mm, IX – VIII; soil water reserve (m³ /ha), in values of < 50 in the soil layer 0 – 20 cm and < 100 in the soil layer 0 – 100 cm, close to the scorching coefficient, serving as extreme edaphic drought.

The identification, recognition and spatial and temporal examination of these agro-climatic parameters employed in the drought assessment, allow through correlation with the covering of growth and development processes of plants, the appointment of favourability degree from an agro-climatologic standpoint of farming surfaces for agricultural breeds and species with different degrees of resistance to the occurrence of drought events.

The agro-climatic coefficients engaged in the drought evaluation provide information on the risk degree, intensity, frequency, duration and probability of generating disruptive factors, and also for establishing the vulnerability extent of harvested terrains and the spatial – temporal repartition of hazard events.

The evaluation of climatic coefficients is attained with the aid of several simple mathematic formulas, the majority highlighting different rapports between two climatic elements, the most important being temperature and precipitations. In order to calculate the agro-climatic drought coefficients a correlation must be made with the requests in regards to vegetation conditions of plants on specific phases and inter-phases and the active season in its ensemble.

The primary agro-climatic coefficients used in the drought assessment both on a national and international scale are:

– the soil humidity coefficient G. T. Seleaninov [11]: k = 0.6 Sr1 + Sr2/St˚, where Sr1 is the precipitation quantity outside of the vegetation period, Sr2 is the precipitation amount during the vegetation period, while St is the sum of active temperatures ≥ 10 ˚C within the vegetation period;

– the humidity coefficient [2]: Iu = aq + Q/ETP, where a is the proportionality coefficient which differs throughout the year


from 0 to 0.6, q is the sum of precipitations from the XI – II months, Q is the sum of additional precipitations month by month, whilst ETP is the potential evapo-transpiration;

– the rain factor Lang [9] represents the rapport between the annual precipitations medium and the sum of monthly averages of positive temperatures (> 0 ˚C)/12, in order to obtain a positive and finite value of the rapport;

– the aridity coefficient De Martonne [2]: Ia = P/(T+10), where P is the average annual amount of precipitation (mm), while T is the medium annual temperature (˚C). It derives from modifying the rain factor Lang, so that at negative temperatures the coefficient will not take negative values [11]. It is calculated annual, monthly and during the vegetation season.

– aridity coefficient Thornthwaite [11]: ITh = P/ETP, where P is the precipitation amount, while ETP is the potential evapotranspiration. It is used as such, or as a humectation coefficient stated in percents after the 100P/ETP formula and dubbed moisture coefficient „Thorn-thwaite” or humidity coefficient;

– the humidity coefficient [10] Rz: Rz = z√RR, where z is the number of days with precipitations ≥ 0.1 mm within the considered time frame, while RR is the monthly amount of precipitations (mm). It is employed within the III – X monthly period;

– hydrothermal coefficient [9]: Iht = T· P/100 ·k1 ·k2 where T is the annual average temperature, P is the quantity of medium annual precipitations, while k1 and k2 are correction coefficients. For Romania the values are between 0.7 and 9;

– Palmer coefficient [10] is a function assigned by the differences accumulated between the precipitation provisions–assurance and evapotranspiration requirements for the purpose of forecasting the scarce and/or humid periods;

– stress coefficient day/grad (SDD) [10]: SDD = ∑ (Tc – Ta) where Tc is the temperature of vegetation layer, while Ta is the air temperature. It is an indicator of the water and drought strain;

– pluviometric coefficient [11]: IA = (N + 2P)/(N + 2S) where N is the number of normal months, P is the number of rainy months, and S is the number of arid months;

– accessible humidity coefficient (MAI) [10] is the rapport of certain precipitations and potential evapo-transpiration. A 50 %


probability is the optimal value for each advancement and development study of crop fields;

– soil humidity coefficient (SMI) [11] is the rapport of accessible water at the capacity of available water from the root zone directly reported to the potential evapo-transpiration during the period of high request of water by agricultural plants – critical period;

– soil balance equation [10]: R – Q – U – E - ∆W = 0, where R is precipitation amount or irrigations, Q is discharge, U is the drainage depth beyond the root zone, E is potential evapotranspiration, whilst ∆W is the chage in the soil water reserve. The potential evapotranspiration is determined with the aid of Thornthwaite formula or through Pennman method. It can be calculated on a daily, decadal, monthly and annually basis.

The outcome of applying the comparative analysis on these agro-climatic coefficients of drought events assessment shows that actually they define the major environmental factors, appointing the degree of agro-climatologic favourability of agricultural years for each and every crop field.

Instead of conclusions Agro-climatic parameters and indices are used in order to define the

potential climate of the agricultural areas of interest, spatial-temporal areas of dryness or wetting, the depiction of years or season periods etc. The theme of the article is one of teaching nature and by its very nature of teaching approach must be comprehensive and systematic representing a significant requirement to achieve a quality process.

Knowledge, selection and correct use of agro-climatic parameters and indices is the first step in describing and assessing the drought phenomenon, with a precise geographical location, all the more so as in our country, of the approximately 14.7 million ha agricultural land, soils are affected by the drought over long periods and consecutive years over an area of about 7 million hectares of agricultural area (48% of the total) or excess moisture in rainy years (about 4 million ha).

The effects of droughts are immediate in the vegetation carpet, and affected vegetation reduces the protection scheme in terms of the erosion of [6], and as a result the proposed inventory provides the theoretical nature absolutely necessary in a future case study, whose subject is the detailed analysis of the drought phenomenon.


References Octavia, B. (1981) – “Fenomene meteorologice caracteristice întregului an

– uscăciunea si drought”, Editura Didactică and Pedagocică, București, pp 42-50.

Ciulache, S., Ionac, N. (2003) – “Dicționar de meteorologie si climatologie”, Ars Docendi, București.

Cofas, E., Toma, E., Dumitru, S. (2012) – “Statistical macro regiomal analysis for vegetal agricultural production sector”, Conferința științifică internațională „Eco – Trend”, Editura Academia Brâncusi, pp. 310.

Dumitrașcu, M. (2006) – “Modificări ale peisajului în Câmpia Oltenia” , Editura Academiei Române, București.

Grecu, F. et. al. (2012) – “Sisteme hidrogeomor-fologice din Câmpia Română. Hazard – vulnerabilitate – risc” , Editura Universității din București.

Mateescu, E., Oprișescu, R. (1997) – “Elaborarea sintezei privind producerea fenomenelor meteorologice cu impact asupra regimului agricol Institutul Național de Statistică, 2006, Anuarul Statistic al României”, Manuscris, INMH, București.

Oancea, I. (1996) – “Tratat de agricultură” , Editura Ceres, București. Sandu, I., Mateescu, E., Vătămanu, V.V. (2010) – “Schimbările climatice în

România si efectele asupra agriculturii”, Ed. Sitech, Craiova. Săndoiu, I. (2001) – “Agrometeorologie. Baze teoretice. Măsurarea şi

prelucrarea datelor”, Editura Ceres, București. Administrația Națională de Meteorologie, 2008, Clima României, Editura

Academiei Române, București. Institutul Național de Statistică, 2006, Anuarul Statistic al României.


Operationalization of the Work Behaviour Concept: Operationalization of the Work Behaviour Concept: Operationalization of the Work Behaviour Concept: Operationalization of the Work Behaviour Concept: Work Behaviour SelfWork Behaviour SelfWork Behaviour SelfWork Behaviour Self----assessment Scale assessment Scale assessment Scale assessment Scale

Teaching assistant Ivana KOVAČEVIĆ, PhD Faculty of Organizational Sciences, University of Belgrade,

Professor Svetlana ČIZMI Ć, PhD Faculty of Philosophy, University of Belgrade

Professor Dobrivoje MIHAILOVI Ć, PhD Faculty of Organizational Sciences, University of Belgrade,

Abstract

Inspired by the broader models of job performance assessment, there is an attempt to develop and empirically verify an instrument for measuring work behaviour. Defining job performance in the perspective of individual behaviour leads scholars to integrate in their measuring contextual activities that are not directly linked to the task. Work behaviour self-assessment scale is theoretically based on five indicators divided into two wider types of behaviours: related to the (1) results and to the (2) manners of conduct. According to the results of Principal component analysis, 64% of total variance was explained by eight main components, labelled according to the related items. Scale distribution did not deviate from normal with internal consistency of Cronbach`s alpha=.79. Finally, some ideas for improving characteristics of the scale are provided. Key words: work behaviour, operationalization, self-assessment scale, Internal (consistency) reliability, Principal component analysis

1. Introduction

The performance appraisal is important activity in Human Resource Management practice. Goals of performance assessments are manifold and envelop two main domains of practice: selection (if a person is suitable for job) and evaluation (if person perform it well) (Torrington, Hall, and Taylor, 2005). It consists of processes of defining, developing criteria and targeting behavioural actions, developing or adopting appraisal instruments and agents, then measuring, assessing and giving feedback with the objective to improve performance (Casio and Aguinis, 2014). So, this is a process of


immense significance and complexity that requires clear theoretical background and reliable methodological approach. Acknowledging the theoretically postulated idea that job performance should not be defined solemnly on achievements of employees, there is an initiative to develop empirically verified scale for assessing the concept of work behaviour that encompasses all activities leading to the final accomplishments. As a matter of fact, existing paradigm of conceptualizing job performance considers wider framework. It includes all behaviours present in work context leading to the specific achievement and describing the way how work has been performed by employee (Jex and Britt, 2008). It analyses not only the results but also the manner of engaging in activities connected with the work process. It also takes into account different behavioural episodes according to the level of relevancy for organizational goals (Motowidlo, 2003). We consider the fact that job performance comprises actions that go beyond the frame of employment`s formal demands. Bialek and colleagues (1977) claim that employees spend less than half of working hours engaged in activities given in their job description. Therefore, work appraisals should not be based on homogeneous, one-dimensional constructs. Rather, a more complex method of assessment that incorporate all key processes involved in achieving the work tasks, should be developed and applied. Starting from the point of view that objective assessment of how employees behave in the workplace setting is impossible without developing a proper system of measuring, the purpose of this article is to propose one concept of measuring work behaviour by developing a suitable psychological instrument.

2. Research metodology for measuring work behaviour

2.1. Theoretical considerations Motowidlo (Motowidlo, 2003) believes that there are, at least, two conceptual and practical advantages of observing performance in the context of individual`s behaviour, rather than linked to its results. First, there are some situational factors that modify the effects. Second, there are some psychological processes and principles that govern the course of action during the performance of the tasks. Since performance is expected organizational value of employees` contribution, results are seen as conditions that are changed by it and behaviour is the means of contributing organizational value by changing those conditions (through results).


2.1.1. The concept of work behaviour Different conceptualizations of job performance and work behaviour are present in literature. Some of them are relevant for this study and their common qualities are universality and complexity. General definitions enable to include in concept all those behaviours that are not directly connected with concrete work tasks. Also, they cover these behaviours that contribute, as well as those that peril, the achievement of professional and organizational goals. Campbell (1990) has categorized work behaviour according to the direction of influence on organizational effectiveness as: (1) productive, that contributes to the organization, and (2) counterproductive behaviours, that impair organizational, and interests of its members. Accordingly, productive work behaviours are related to the work performance, organizational citizenship behaviour and innovation (Jex & Britt, 2008). On the other side, different definitions of counterproductive behaviour could be integrated in one broad definition that explains it as: “total expected value to the organization of behaviours that are carried out over a standard period of time with the intention of hurting other individuals or the organization as a whole and that have negative expected organizational value” (Motowidlo, 2003, 48). Models of work behaviour commonly distinguish behaviours that are closely related to the work tasks and those that accompany performance. So, Murphy (2004) differentiates work behaviour according to the course of impact and its relation to the core activity, on those: (1) closely associated with the task, (2) considering human relations, but also (3) causing absenteeism, destructive and risk behaviours. Waldman and Spangler (1989), for example, develops integrative model of work behaviour that focuses on: personal characteristics (experience, abilities), effects (feedback information, job security) and environmental factors. These models tend to offer valid predictors. Work behaviour on individual level is seen as a consequence of job complexity (task requirements), knowledge and working skills (based on abilities and experience) and employee`s consciousness (personal characteristic) while operating on job (Jex & Britt, 2008). Studies have confirmed that cognitive ability predicts better technical skills and work effort, whereas some personal features are better predictors of contextual work behaviours as discipline (Pulakos, Broman & Hough, 1988). Similar, Borman and Motowidlo (1993) emphasis that there are two sorts of work behaviours: (1) those directly linked with task performance and (2) those called contextual. Task performance considers activities that


could be found in formal work description and refers to the working role. Contextual behaviours contribute to the organizational effectiveness due to the psychological, social and organizational work context. So, effects of contextual activities are executed via impact on others, increasing personal willingness to engage at work activities and through activities that has impact on organizational resources. These contextual behaviours serve to ease communication, sustain social interaction, reduce tension and disturbing emotional reactions, and are of highly importance to the issue of team work (Jex & Britt, 2008). Van Scotter and Motowidlo (1996) describe the manner how contextual work activities contribute to the organizational effectiveness by shaping organizational and social environment that facilitate task activities. It is believed that those contributions have general value that is present in every each job and organization, while work activities linked to the task varies from job to job. So, distinction between contextual and activities tightly connected to the task, is of theoretical, as well as of practical significance, due to the fact that they are probably determined by different antecedents. Specific knowledge, skills and abilities are better determinants of someone’s behaviour while completing job tasks. On the other hand, dispositional factors are better predictors of contextual work behaviour. Arvey and Murphy (1998) claims that one should be careful with the idea of developing a new construct of contextual work activities. It defines something that is not in the job description, but if we formalize it as part of the job description, then it loses its specificity. However, researches shown that this theoretical construct has its empirical confirmation (Coleman & Borman, 2000). Factors linked to the job task, as well as, contextual ones, independently, contribute to the work outcomes (Barrick & Mount, 2005). Also, it was found that personal variables are in higher correlation with contextual activities (Pulakos, Broman & Hough, 1988). Finally, recognition of the existence of contextual work behaviour, not strongly tied with formal work goal, yet essential for organizational performance, requires some methodologically valid approach of measuring its contribution. There is a review of various endeavours to include contextual aspects into measuring tools. Those conceptions were inspiration and background for the construction of our scale to be used in variety of settings by mixing different theoretical concepts.

2.1.2. Conceptions of measuring work behaviour Although it is not uncommon to assess job performance based on one narrow specific aspect of work activity based on outcome, the idea of


perceiving job performance as a “property of multiple, discrete behaviours that occur over some span of time” (Motowidlo, 2003, 39) is very popular. As a matter of fact, defining a work process in behavioural terms enables accessing and measuring it. As Nelson and Quick (2006) posted, measuring the work outcome is an activity of appraising appropriateness and effectiveness of someone`s work activities in specific context. Consequently, different conceptions of measuring work behaviour exist. Borman and Motowidlo (1993) are among the first scholars to claim that there are two sorts of work activities both of particular importance for task achievement: operative and contextual ones. Further, authors distinguish five types of those, so called, contextual activities: (1) readiness to voluntarily complete tasks that are not part of the formal job demands, (2) persistence with additional enthusiasm and effort that is necessary for successfully accomplish working goals, (3) supportative actions toward colleagues and cooperation, (4) obeying organizational rules and procedures even when it does not go in one`s behalf, (5) acceptance, support and protect of organizational goals. On the other hand, Coleman and Borman (2000) observe this concept from the empirical point of view and parse it on 27 items from which they extract 3 factors: (1) interpersonal support, (2) organizational support and (3) consciousness and initiative related to work tasks. Those behaviours that are not strongly tied with the formal work goal and often called contextual became an inspiration for many researchers. For example, in case that those actions are not part of the formal system of appraisal and compensation, if they are rather optional and result of employee`s initiative, then it is often seen as the phenomenon of Organizational citizenship behaviour (OCB). It is first introduced by Organ in 1977 to define those behaviours that are not part of the formal job description and that are not prescribed by work role, but rather “self-initiative behaviour that contributes organizational effectiveness and benefit and that are not directly and explicitly rewarded” (Organ, 1988, 4). Also, some distinctions are made between OCB directed toward the colleagues (for example, expressing altruism) and toward the organization (consciousness and loyalty). Nevertheless, operationally defining work behaviour is not an easy task. The main problems are its inherent multidimensionality and its dependency on different factors. Therefore, it is necessary to clearly define the subject, the criteria and purpose of appraisal and methods for systematically observing targeted subjects and their behaviour on work. Also, potential predictors, conditions facilitating or aggravating work


process, and epistemological problems of assessment (accuracy, reliability and validity), should be considered. Appraisal could be theoretical, informal or highly formalized with significant consequences on compensation, promotion, retribution, dismissing, selection, training, and so on.

According to the purpose we chose criteria, methods and sources of assessment. Studies show that there are significant differences in evaluation results in function of measures that are taken as criteria, job that are evaluated, and also of purpose of evaluation (Nelson & Quick, 2006). Although almost 95% of all appraisals in work context are based on evaluations of superiors, it is believed that when evaluating OCB and similar concepts, more relevant evaluators are subordinates and clients. Also, in theoretically inspired researches, self-appraisal is acceptable (Cardona & Espejo, 2002). The question of accuracy is highly dependent not only on criteria but also on the appraiser.

On the other hand, reliability depends on phenomenon`s stability which is not the case. It is believed that past work behaviour is a good predictor of future work behaviour but it relies on the factor of experience. So, the concept of dynamic criteria should be introduced, considering the obvious fact that the work behaviour is changing over time. It is also one of the reasons why correlation of two measures of job performance decreases in function of time and it produces the, so called, problem of work behaviour temporal instability (Sturman, Cheramie & Cashen, 2005).

2.2. Empirical considerations 2.2.1. Research goals and objectives As it was previously said, the main objective of this paper was to

develop an instrument for measuring work behaviour that is strongly rooted in theory and then verify its practical value and metric features through application. Inspired by theoretical ideas and methodological experience of other researchers (Slemp, 2013; Kahya, 2007; Coleman & Borman, 2000), we decided to develop an instrument for measuring work behaviour postulated as a wider concept of job performance, based not only on its effects but according to the idea of contextual relevancy. It was expected that it would be able to measure the excellence of work behaviour in totality and in its complexity. The additive nature and capability of instrument to give one single measure was examined by alpha coefficient of internal reliability of the scale.


2.2.2. Research procedure After two preliminary versions of the scale, based on five

theoretically founded indicators, covering two different aspects of behaviours (task related and contextual activities) we finally reached the first complete version of - Work Behaviour Self-Assessment Scale.

Items were conceived as verbal stimuli that should provoke a recollection of a relevant targeted behaviour. Instrument was shaped as five degree Likert type scale. So, respondents should decide the intensity of their agreement with claims. Appraisal of work behaviour is left on performers themselves. It is justified in situation of theoretical goals of the study with no practical implications on subjects what so ever (Cardona and Espejo, 2002).

An assumed structure of operationally defined concept distinguishes at least two categories representing the work behaviour domains. First one considers activities associated with main working processes and therefore items should describe the manner of accomplishing professional tasks. Second indicator should refer to the behaviours only indirectly associated with job tasks. In this context, interaction with colleagues and attitudes toward organization should be taken into account. It is important because it was found that performance is very much dependent on those qualities. The question of how many varieties of contextual activities exist remains open.

2.2.2.1. First step: defining a scale`s rationales

Work behaviour self-assessment scale is based on previously mentioned Borman and Motowidlo`s concept of work behaviour (1993), as well as on Coleman and Boreman`s empirical verification (2000). Some items are inspired by Organ`s concept of citizenship behaviour (Organ, 1988). Finally, five degree Likert type scale measures work behaviour by taking into account behaviours related to the final job result (I), where quality of work (1) is equally important (2 items) as quantity (2) of accomplished tasks (2 items). Further, there are evaluations of episodes of behaviour that are called contextual (II), explaining the approach to work (manner in which work has been done), implicitly describing employees’ attitudes toward job, colleagues and organization. Here, we distinguish between (3) behaviours expressed during the task accomplishment - directly connected with performing working tasks (core activities) (9 items), (4) behaviours referred to the psycho-social (contextual activities) (7 items) and (5) organizational aspects of work (contextual activities) (7 items).


Indicators of work behaviour that are directly attached to the job performance refers to the employee`s persistence with enthusiasm, when additional effort is necessary to accomplish the task, regardless the work conditions. It includes taking an initiative to do whatever is necessary to achieve goals even if they are not a part of the regular duties. There are also tendencies to find extra tasks after fulfilling regular obligations, developing individual knowledge and skills by one’s own means and resources. Also, accuracy, reliability and goal oriented qualities should be mentioned. Accordingly, we could mention motivational aspects in this context. Psycho-social domain of work behaviour encompasses questions of providing help to co-workers by coaching, advising, replacing and doing some part of their tasks, adjusting to their schedules, offering emotional support, as well as cooperation and courtesy. It includes timely informing, expressing consideration, generating motivation, respect and trust and similar aspects of behavior directed toward the concrete coworker. Hence, this domain could be seen as related to the notion of organizational citizenship behaviour. Behaviours contribute to the whole organization by representing it with good image, voluntary organizational promotion, loyalty even in crisis, consciously supporting organizational mission and goals, willingly obeying organizational rules and procedures are also considered in this conception.

2.2.2.2. Research sample and planned statistical analysis Version of the scale was administered on 100 from five Belgrade IT

companies with the idea to revise and analyze metric characteristics of this preliminary version of the scale. The theoretical validation and internal consistency were considered in this iteration of scale construction process.

Work analysis shown that respondents are working on tasks of similar complexity and content and socio-demographic questions revealed that their educational backgrounds are alike.

Actually, they are engineers employed on positions of IT managers, system administrators and software developers. Gender structure is slightly biased, with 62% of males and 38% of females (Figure 1).

The postulated structure of work behaviour concept was tested by statistical procedure of Factor analysis, precisely, with method of Principal components that extracts components that share common variance from original set of items (Kovačić, 1998). The idea was to examine whether the actual structure of an instrument was similar to the theoretically expected one.


Figure 1. Diagram of sample gender structure

Although work behaviour is complex and multidimensional concept,

the main idea is to form a unique additive scale that is able to give one general measure. So, the ambiguous position, so frequent in a psychological assessment tools (Fajgelj, 2005), should be satisfied with the reasonable number of factors (phenomenon indicators) and with the relatively high level of Cronbach`s alpha coefficient.

3. Results of instrument analysis 3.1. Testing an internal consistency of Work Behaviour Self-

Assessment Scale One sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test showed that we could retain

null hypothesis due to the fact that there is no statistically significant deviance from normal distribution (AS=99.81; SD=11.47; N=100; p=.43). It is an important parameter if we want to analyze the internal reliability of the scale, as normal distribution is a prerequisite for use of parametric statistics. Internal consistency for 27 items given in the Likert type scale, was Cronbach`s alpha =.79.

It represents the measure of homogeneity and internal reliability (low level of obtained measurement error). This measure could indicate the level of excellence of someone`s work behaviour as it is seen by him. This measure could be used in studies as an indicator of work behaviour and it could be associated with other psychological variables, as it is the case with one recent study where it is correlated with satisfaction (Kovačević, Čizmić, 2012). Nevertheless, it is possible to approach to the instrument as it is a composite of different dimensions that describe the content of the concept.


3.2. Analysing a content of Work Behaviour Self-Assessment Scale Principal component analysis is commonly used for constructive validation, i.e. comprehension of the structure of operationally defined notion. Intercorellations between manifest variables (27 original items of Work behaviour scale) imply lesser number of latent variables that are extracted with retaining the maximum possible variability at the same time (Kovačić, 1998, 187). Based on Guttman-Kaisser reliability criteria, eight orthogonal components were extracted (varimax rotation). They give approximation of variation structure of original variables. Total explained variance is slightly above 64 %, which is rather satisfactory. Except first component that explains about 10% of total variance, components have almost the same amount of explained sample differences. Percentages of possible variances are given in the Table 1. In the Table 1 names of the components were also given. They are created according to the content of the items with whom each component is saturated. Componential saturation with the scale`s item is also given in the table.

Table no. 1: Percentages of explained variance with Principal component analysis and components` saturation with items

Items/components I II III IV V VI VII VIII Percentage of explained variance (#64.03%)

10.16 8.76 8.14 8.12 7.81 7.29 7.02 6.72

1. I have better results than my colleagues

.01 -.13 .16 .07 .85 0 .01 .12

2. Quality of work that I`ve done usually goes beyond superiors `expectations

-.6 .05 .25 0 -.42 -.13 .28 .21

3. I usually complete more tasks than average

.08 -.19 .36 -.04 -.45 .01 .53 -.08

4.In my business hours I overcome organizational norms

0 .14 -.12 -.11 .83 -.19 -.01 .02

5. I try to complete job despite the obstacles .63 .15 -.04 -.09 .03 0 -.06 .11

6. It is important to me to finish job within expected deadline

.2 .69 -.01 .09 .1 -.28 -.25 .23

7. I usually avoid to take more tasks than it is

.02 -.11 .10 -.1 -.06 .1 -.02 -.69


Items/components I II III IV V VI VII VIII required 8. It is not hard for me to work overtime just to finish work adequately

.18 .08 -.1 .12 .08 .16 -.08 .73

9. Sometimes I come late at work

.04 .03 -.03 -.19 -.13 .69 -.09 .2

10. Sometimes I can`t continue to work unless I spend more time on break

.08 -.04 .28 -.06 -.05 .70 .29 -.15

11. If I finish my job before the end of the work time, I usually find myself some extra tasks

-.11 .48 -.06 .15 .32 .34 .14 .16

12. I never stay after work, unless it is explicitly requested by superiors

-.58 .15 .09 -.01 0 -.21 .11 -.54

13. I am willing to attend some extra course If I find it useful for my professional development

.57 .41 .16 .05 .05 .31 -.05 .08

14. It is not hard for me to help a colleague if I realize that he has too much to do

.29 .35 -.38 .17 -.16 .30 -.28 .14

15. I always share information with my colleagues

.24 .62 -.29 .09 -.09 -.06 .02 -.13

16. If any of my colleague have some problem I am willing to help

.21 .72 -.27 .11 -.03 .11 -.25 .1

17. Experience taught me not to believe my colleagues

.05 -.18 .75 -.05 -.13 .14 -.07 -.11

18. I often have conflicts with my colleagues

-.21 -.16 .76 -.05 .03 .09 .06 -.14

19. I try to protect colleagues from my bad temper

.54 .09 -.29 -.13 -.14 .01 .35 -.26

20. I am not eager to change my plans in order to coordinate with co-

-.27 .04 .5 -.24 .17 -.36 .32 0


Items/components I II III IV V VI VII VIII workers 21. I enjoy casual activities that company organize

.67 .23 -.07 .08 -.15 -.13 -.05 .22

22. I often overlook some important information in media about the company I work for

-.09 -.10 -.03 .07 .07 .12 .78 -.08

23. It seems that my acquaintances know better than me what is happening in my company

-.39 -.21 .1 -.17 -.15 -.32 .47 .17

24. When I speak about my organization with people outside the organization, I mention only positive things

-.10 .14 -.1 .79 .08 -.04 -.04 .03

25. It bothers me when people criticize what we do in our organization

-.01 .14 .04 .72 -.14 .12 .13 .20

26. I do not know what should happen so that I decide to leave the organization

.05 -.19 -.15 .70 0 -.38 .01 .10

27. Even when I do not agree with organizational procedures and rules I strive to obey them

.09 .28 -.04 .51 .05 -.08 -.33 -.05

Componential saturation, given in the Table no. 1., provide us with the information how this components should be comprehended, as well as how real structure of theoretically conceived composition of scale looks like. First component that explains about 10% of total variance is saturated with items which classification in theoretically defined indicators is rather heterogeneous. Here, we have an item of work quality that overcome the expectations of superiors and work persistence despite the obstacles, but also a high saturation with items provoking enjoyment in informal interactions with colleagues and effort to protect colleagues from personal dissatisfaction, which seems to be mistakenly categorized in


organizational aspects. Also, there is a relatively expressed saturation with items that describe a manner of performing task and willingness for professional development. Due to its multiplicity, we named this category (I) The general work behaviour indicator (items: 21, 5, 2, 12, 13, 19). Second component is explained with four items that mainly refer to the relations with colleagues – collegiality and punctuation (meeting deadlines). So, this component is called (II) Collegiality and devotion (items: 16, 6, 15, 11) in contrast with third component that is saturated by items with negative connotation of collegiality and psycho-social aspects: distrust and conflicts with colleagues and unwillingness to help. So it is called (III) Uncooperativeness (items: 18, 17, 14). Fourth component is strictly defined with organizational aspects of work behaviour, expressing positive attitude toward organization and readiness to protect its image and interest. Thus, it is called (IV) Organizational loyalty (items: 24, 25, 26, 27). These items could be incorporated with the organizational aspect of the concept of organizational citizenship behaviour. Fifth indicator is highly saturated with two items referring to the quality and quantity of work done, so we named it as (V) Efficiency and effectiveness indicator (items: 1, 4). It is almost opposite to the component defined by items indicating tendency toward absenteeism that is labeled as (VI) Skiving indicator (items: 10, 9, 20). Seventh factor is not consistent. There is an item articulating indifference and lack of information toward the organization and organizational public representation and an item about the quantity of work done that goes beyond average. We called this factor (VII) Organizational indifference (items: 22, 3, 23). At the end, eighth component is characterized by willingness to work overtime and undertaking tasks that goes beyond one`s responsibility. So, it is a question of (VIII) Personal conscientiousness indicator (items: 8, 7). 4. Disscusion and conclusion Learnt componential structure of instrument could be improved by analyzing the saturations of components with representative items, expecting to, by removing or replacing some items attain higher internal consistency and better explanation of the concept. As a matter of fact, this operational definition of work behaviour could give a good insight to the real content of the notion.

It indicates that it is a subject of complex composition that integrate some personal aspects as conscientiousness trait (VIII), attitude toward organization (IV, VII), motivation and inclination to counterproductive behaviour (VI, III), as well as organizational citizenship like behaviours (II,


IV). Also, there is a measure of efficiency and efficacy as the description of finial result (V). There is also a general factor of job performance with the highest impact on work behaviour`s variance and on evaluation (I). This general factor could be seen as if it expresses the manner how the work is done. It explains mainly contextual activities. Finally, we might see this operationally defined work behaviour concept in the theoretical framework of Borman and Motowidlo (1993) where there is a distinction between task and contextual behaviours, with the conception of Borman and colleagues (2001) who categorized job performance into a personal, organizational support and conscientious initiative. Consciousness is also a predictor of job performance in Barrick an Mount`s (2005) model of performance. We should not forget the Organ`s (1988) concept of organizational citizenship behaviour and Coleman and Boreman`s (2000) methodological endeavours. Afterwards, there is an idea for further researches based on this conception trying to conduct a confirmatory factor analysis using structural equation modeling similar to the existing contemporary attempts where the idea of proactive approach to job is considered (Slemp, Vella-Brodrick, 2013). As a matter of fact, those researchers distinguish three domains of crafting: task, cognitive and relational, with the idea to introduce three factorial concept of job performance and correlate them with relevant variables.

Similarly, Kahya (2007) proposed a concept of following dimensions: task performance, interpersonal and organizational citizenship and job dedication, associated with criteria of physical effort, environmental conditions and hazards. Finally, there is a plan to formulate an instrument structured by lesser aspects, so it is necessary to reduce number of components gained by further statistical analysis and by purifying the original concept. Although scale could be considered applicable according to the fact that its structure relatively coincides with expected theoretical structure of the concept, the question of its final composition remains open. As a matter of fact, validity of the concept is not yet systematically analyzed and due to the fact that it considers multiple correlations with different related instruments and real observed behaviour, we left this important metric aspect for future researches. Also, objectivity issue could be examined by correlating the results gained by self-assessment and assessments from other sources. There is also a potential for gender issue to take into consideration and the question of different job characteristics. References


Arvey, D.R., & Murphy, R.K. (1998). Performance evaluation in work settings. Annual Review of Psychology, 49, 141-168.

Barrik, M. R. & Mount, M. K. (2005). Yes, personality matters: Moving on more important matters. Human Performance, 18, 359-372.

Bialek, H., Zapf, D., & McGuire, W. (1977). Personnel Turbulence and Time Utilization in an Infantry Division. Report #FR-WD-CA 77-11. Alexandria, Va.: Human Resources Research Organization.

Borman, W. C., Buck, D. E., Hanson, M. A., Motowidlo, S. J., Stark, S. & Drasgow, F. (2001). An examination of the comparative reliability, validity, and accuracy of performance ratings made using computerized adaptive rating scales. Journal of Applied Psychology, 86(5), 965-973.

Borman, W. C. & Motowidlo, S. J. (1993). Expanding the criterion domain to include elements of contextual performance. In: N. Schmitt & W. C. Borman (Eds.), Personnel selection in organizations (71-98). San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.

Campbell, J. P. (1990). Modelling the performance prediction problem in industrial and organizational psychology. In: M. D. Dunnette & L. M. Hough (Eds), Handbook of industrial and organizational psychology, 1 (687-732). Palo Alto, CA: Consulting Psychologists Press.

Cardona, P. & Espejo, A. (2002). The Effect of the Rating Source in Organizational Citizenship Behavior: A Multitrait-Multimethod Analysis. Research Paper no. 474, October, 2002. University of Navarra. Retrieved from: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=443438

Casio, W.F., Aguinis, H. (2014). Applied Psychology in Human Resource Management. Essex: Pearson Education Limited.

Coleman, V. I. & Borman, W. C. (2000). Investigating the underlying structure of the citizenship performance domain. Human Resource Management Review 10(1), 25-44.

Fajgelj, S. (2005). Psihometrija. Metod i teorija psihološkog merenja. Beograd: Centar za primenjenu psihologiju.

Jex, S.M., & Britt, T.W. (2008). Organizational Psychology: A scientist-practitioner approach. New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons.

Kahya, E. (2007). The effects of job characteristics and working conditions on job performance. International Journal of Industrial Ergonomics 37, 515-523.

Kovačević, I., & Čizmić, S. (2012). Workspace satisfaction and work behaviour of computer systems managers. Psihološka istraživanja, 15(1), 5-21.

Kovačić, Z. (1998). Multivarijaciona analiza. Beograd: Ekonomski fakultet.


Motowidlo, S. J. (2003). Job performance. In: W. C., Borman, D. R. Ilgen & R. J. Klimoski (Eds), Handbook of Psychology, vol. 12: Industrial and organizational psychology (39-64). New Jersey: John Wiley & Sons.

Murphy, K. R. (2004). Assessment in work settings. In: S. N. Haynes & E. M. Heiby (Eds.), Comprehensive handbook of psychological assessment, vol. 3: Behavioural Assessment (346-364). Hobroken, New Jersey: Wiley Publishers.

Nelson, L.D., Quick, J.C. (2006). Organizational Behavior: Foundations, Realities & Challenges, 5th ed., Ohio: Thomson.

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Waldman, D. A., Spangler, W. D. (1989). Putting together the pieces: A closer look at the determinants of job performance. Human Performance 2, 29-59.


EvolutionEvolutionEvolutionEvolution of the Inflation and Priceof the Inflation and Priceof the Inflation and Priceof the Inflation and Price indexindexindexindex

Prof. Constantin ANGHELACHE, PhD. Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

„Artifex” University of Bucharest Assoc. prof. Aurelian DIACONU, PhD.

„Artifex” University of Bucharest Ligia PRODAN, PhD. Student

Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Ec. Emilia STANCIU

Abstract

This paper presents the evolution of the consumer prices, which in turn is a measure if the inflation. By using official statistical data, the authors synthesize the main characteristics of the price indicators. The research emphasizes the the divergent evolution between the consumer price index, as an overall and in structure, in comparison with the evolution and appreciation of the national currency.

Key words: inflation, price, deficit, consumer, goods

The comparison between the datasets related to January 2014 and December 2013 outlines the fact that consumer prices increased by 0.9%. The factors that caused this evolution are the increase of prices for goods (+0.9% for both food and non-food categories) and the prices for services (tariffs, that grew by 0.7%).

By analyzing the structure of each factor, it can be observed that the food products’ components recorded increases for the following groups: vegetables and tinned vegetables (+6.4%), for fruit and tinned fruit (+1.6%), for alcoholic beverages (+0.5%), while for eggs (-0.6%), edible oil (-0.2%), and sugar (-0.1%) there were slight decreases.

The factor “Non-food goods” was characterized by the following evolutions: growth in the case of tobacco, cigarettes (+3.0%), fuel (+1.1%), electric energy, gas and central heating (+0.9%).

The increase of services tariffs was determined by higher tariffs for telephony (+1.3%), water, sewerage, sanitation (+1.3%). The industrial production prices remained at the same level in January 2014. The factor “Mining and quarrying” records higher prices in January 2014 as against December 2013, by 2.4%, because prices for mining support service


activities, extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas and for mining of coal and lignite grew.

The manufacturing sector also recorded a slight growth of prices, with 0.4% as against the previous months. The factors that determined the increase were the prices pertaining to manufacture of tobacco products (+2.9%), in manufacture of basic metals (+1.8%), other manufacturing n.e.c. (+1.6%), manufacture of wearing apparel (+1.3%), printing and reproduction of recorded media (+1.3%), manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture; manufacture of articles of straw and plaiting materials (+1.2%), manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products (+1.1%), manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c. (+1.0%), manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations (+0.9%)

The sectors manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers (-0.7%) and for manufacture of textiles (-0.2%) recorded decreases.

The analysis for 2013 shows that by broad industrial groups, significant price increases were experienced for the intermediate goods industry (+0.9%), durable goods industry (+0.5%) and the current use goods industry (+0.3%). The energy industry and the capital goods industry scored a decrease of 1.0%, respectively 0.1%.

An important element to consider when evaluating the economic evolution of a country1 over a period of time consists of the way the consumer prices developed, both on an overall basis and by groups of goods and services, as well as of the dual comparison with the planned, forecasted target and the outcomes of the previous year. In the context of the steady concern as regards the adjustment of the system of the income collecting, based on the unique quota of taxation, as well as bringing the Fiscal Code to the level of correlative terms, in line with the actual situation of the country, in 2010-2013 there are a number of events occurring and worth to be outlined.

First of all, the discussions between the Romanian Government and the I.M.F., have been finalized and the installments out of the granted credit were allocated. Practically, all of them, over 20 billion euro, were integrally transferred. There have been a number of elements which the I.M.F., intransigent and willing to see a market economy in action, did not agree with. Thus, for instance, there have been many concerns in respect of how to convince the I.M.F. to agree with a higher deficit of GDP or to keep on

1 Anghel, M.G. et al. (2014) – “Analysis on the Gross Domestic Product Evolution”, Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment/Nr. 4/2014


accepting the situation of having certain subsidies at the level of the national economy.

The second essential phenomenon of the years 2010-2013 is given by the divergent evolution between the consumer price index2, as an overall and in structure, in comparison with the evolution and appreciation of the national currency, the new leu, against the two currencies which are forming the foreign exchange basket, respectively Euro and USD.

Since a couple of years, as a consequence of the policy run by the National Bank of Romania, which undertook the responsibility of targeting and fixing the inflation at certain levels, the foreign exchange evolution of the national currency followed a trajectory which, from a economic and financial point of view, proved to be a positive one but, meantime, generated a negative effect on the Romanian exports, or for those working abroad and those living in the country, being meantime non-conform with the actual economical situation of the country.

On this background, in 2010-2012 we are facing periods showing a slight appreciation of the national currency, in contrast with the increase recorded by the inflation rate, on the overall basis and in its structure by goods and services. In 2012 it was recorded, on the background of political instability, the most serious deprecation of the national currency. Without economic support, this negative trend will continue.

The theory teaches us that an important factor as regards the evaluation of the way the inflation is developing consists of the monetary mass in circulation.

There are two contradictory evolutions which we could identify from this point of view. On the one side, the increase of the consumption propensity of the population and, hence, the imperative requirement for steps meant to stop this tendency.

Thus, at a first stage, the interests for the population deposits have been reduced after which, in order to improve the attractiveness of saving, they have been increased again aiming a sole purpose, respectively tempering the population propensity to consumption.

The austerity steps being taken have stopped, in a natural way, the population consumption with immediate effect on the economic growth and deterioration of the standard of life. The revival measures of salaries and pensions, but also other social attempts, did not succeeded to improve, upon expectations, the incomes and subsequently the quality of life.

2 Diaconu, A. (2012) – “Considerations of National Accounts Deflators”, Romanian Statistical Review Supplement. Issue 4/2012


On the other hand, in its concern as to targeting the inflation, the National Bank aimed to implement and control, permanently, the evolution of the foreign exchange rate, consequently the position of the national currency against the two foreign currencies – euro and dollar.

Price increase in July 2013 – percents –

Indicators

Increase of consumption prices in July 2012, against:

Average increase of consumption prices during

the period

June 2013 December 2012 1.I- 31.VII. 2012

1.I- 31.VII. 2013

Total -0,3 1,7 0,3 0,2

Foodstuff *) -1,6 -0,1 0,3 0,3

Non-foodstuff 0,5 3,2 0,3 0,5

Services 0,3 1,9 0,4 0,3

*) Including drinks. Data source: National Institute of Statistics, Statistical Bulletin no. 7/2013

Another typical element is given by the steady concern of the

Executive and, mainly, of the National Bank, to observe the goals declared as regards the inflation targeting3. Despite all steps being taken targeting slipped out of an actual control, lining up outside the forecasts, from 2010 until June 2012. Among the non-foodstuffs recording a high average increase there are the natural gas, the thermo energy, tobacco and cigarettes, electric energy, water – sewage – sanitation, hygiene and cosmetics, postal services, inter-urban transport. Another possible analysis on the increase of the consumer price index might take into consideration the influences of the administrated prices which recorded an average increase of over 2,9%.

Consumption price indexes, 2001-2013 - December previous year= 100 -

130,3

106,6 107,9

104,7

109

104,2 105,33104,5104,9

117,8

114,1

108,6109,3

103

108

113

118

123

128

133

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

*

- % -


3 Anghel M.G. (2014) – Econometric Model Applied in the Analysis of the Correlation between Some of the Macroeconomic Variables, Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Nr. 1


A comparative survey on the annual average inflation in the EU member countries during the period 2010-2013 shows that, along with Hungary, Romania was recording a high level of the inflation annual average level. If proceeding to a careful analysis, we should note also that there are only three-four groups of goods which recorded a particular increase and generated the impossibility of hitting the forecasted target. Thus, for instance, the consumer taxes (taxes on vice), respectively the excises on alcohol and tobacco products, as well as luxury goods or products such as natural gas or thermo-energy, have been extremely high, having a major influence on the rhythm of increase of the consumer price index (inflation). At this point, there are a lot of other comments to be done but for a synthetic picture of the consumer price index we are holding present analysis only.

References

Anghel, M.G. et al. (2014) – “Analysis on the Gross Domestic Product Evolution”, Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment/Nr. 4/2014

Anghel M.G. (2014) – Econometric Model Applied in the Analysis of the Correlation between Some of the Macroeconomic Variables, Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Nr. 1

Anghelache, C. (2013). România 2013. Starea economică sub povara efectelor crizei, Editura Economică, Bucureşti

Anghelache, C. (2012). România 2012. Starea economică in criză perpetuă, Editura Economică, Bucureşti

Anghelache, C. (2008). Tratat de statistică teoretică şi economică, Editura Economică, Bucureşti

Diaconu, A. (2012) – “Considerations of National Accounts Deflators”, Romanian Statistical Review Supplement. Issue 4/2012

Goodwin, N.R. (2008) – “Macroeconomics for the Twenty-First Century”, Tufts University, series GDAE Working Papers no. 03-02

Turdean, M.S., Prodan L., (2012) – „Statistică pentru afaceri” , Editura ProUniversitaria, Bucuresti, ISBN 978-606-647-312-5

Anuarul statistic al României, ediţiile 2002, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

*** Buletinul Statistic nr. 1-12/2002, 1-12/2003, 1-12/2004, 1-12/2005, 1-12/2006, 1-12/2007, 1-12/2008, 1-12/2009, 1-12/2010, 1-12/2011, 1-12/2012, 1-12/2013, 1/2014, National Institute of Statistics


Three Three Three Three TTTTwin Scienceswin Scienceswin Scienceswin Sciences, , , , Born Born Born Born with the with the with the with the First CensusFirst CensusFirst CensusFirst Census

Associate Professor Gheorghe SĂVOIU, Ph.D. Lecturer Mariana BĂNUŢĂ, Ph.D. Lecturer Mihaela GADOIU, Ph.D.

University of Piteşti, Faculty of Economic Sciences

Abstract The hyphotesis of this paper is based on the idea that three sciences have been born during the same event or ancient period: the first census. These three memorable sciences are statistics, demography and accountancy. This paper presents an brief analysis of the common history of these three sciences. The results of this analysis represents the basis for a comparative study in the future about the common moments for the multidisciplinary investigations such as the census.

Key words: alphabet, census, statistics, demography, accountancy. JEL classification: C46, E16, J11, H83, N33.

1. Introduction The occurrence of proto-statistics or old statistics and of the first

specific data and information are related to the census as a periodic set of state records concerning the population (subsequently defined by Romans as census or by periodic resumption census), land, agriculture, ships built, navigation, and have an attested oldness of approximately five to six thousand years. Ancient civilizations from the Mesopotamian, Egyptian, Chinese, and Greek one to the Roman Empire, as well as the whole Middle Ages do not indicate the systematization of concepts, principles, methods, techniques and instruments, able to prove the scientific nature of statistics. Between the first Roman “census”, from the time of King Servius Tullius (6th century b.C.) and the English cadastre, performed between 1083 and 1086, in the time of William the Conqueror, no clear idea about the independent nature of statistics as a science appears. For nearly four millennia, statistics a was a mere tool for the practical orientation of managers, providing them with quantitative assessments of the number of inhabitants and their financial power for taxing purposes, as well as forecasts as realistic as possible of the military potential. They were followed by the descriptive statistics or the description of the state, a first


manifestation as a science, developed by the European universities, the statistics of the English political arithmeticians’ school or the stage of the analytical approach through a mathematical tool of an unprecedented simplicity and especially through the identification of the first regulations, by the first statistician as scientist (John Graunt), statistical classicism or the inductive statistics determined by the emergence and development of the probability theory, modern statistics, crystallized around the Anglo-Saxon school of mathematical statistics, and through the birth, in 1924 of the survey theory and the official recognition of the advantages of the selective research in 1934, by the English Royal Satistical Society we actually entre the modern statistics age.

“Statistics and demography are inseparable. They were born in the same day: the day of the first census…” This is a statement of the late French professor Daniel Villey that has already become famous. In this context, if we analyse more thoroughly, it seems that there was a third twin science, borne in the same day, namely accounting.

The reasons concerning their common origin are given by the nature of the information required at any census, whether ancient or modern. An etymologic approach of demography is strictly related to the significance of the two words of Greek origin composing it, namely “demos” (Greek δήµος) – people and “graphe” (gr.γράφε) or “graphos” (Greek γράφος) - (description) writing. A first meaning would lead to a broader concept of “writing about the human population”. A second meaning would be that of science, whose object is the human population, as a clearly delimited system benefiting from relative autonomy, where the emphasis is on state and level variables, the inputs and outputs of the system described and especially structural changes on dependencies, interdependencies, associations and correlations among the characteristic variables of the population.

According to the specificity of its object, the demographic science, stricto sensu or in its narrow meaning, studies, via statistical and mathematical methods, the human populations and their derived variables, focusing on the actual multiplication capacity of the human population, on the fertility, on the quantification of both individual disappearances or on the mortality, and on the individual appearances or on the birth rate, as well as on quantifying the results of the territorial movements of human individuals or their migration. According to the historical, anthropological, statistical, mathematical, biological and biometric sociological, medical and genetic, actuarial, ecological interdisciplinarity of its object, the demographic science, latu sensu or broadly, also studies a multitude of socio-economic variables such as those defining social mobility (between


the quality of employed and unemployed person, between the position of active and inactive person, among the various occupational statuses, human professions and occupations), the structure of the population according to a wide variety of individual or combined social and economic criteria, actually identifies and measures the influence of the social and economic factors, which influence all these appearances and disappearances generically defined under the established name of demographic phenomena, as well as the multiple correlations between population and economy, population and ethnography, population and medicine or genetics, population and religion, population and resources, population and environment, population and mathematics (including actuarial mathematics in the spectacular life insurance area), population and sociology, population and anthropology or history, etc.

The accountancy emerged correlated with the data concerning the property and welfare also requested at the census. Also, any goods exchange was mentioned as a flow of the performed transactions and of their results. The incipient barter economy did not have techniques able to foster the development of accounting, but with the emergence of the currency is developed somewhat empirically along with the accounting, although limited to recording payments and receipts and at the presentation of the cash balance at a certain historical moment. Great ancient civilizations (the Babylonian, the Chinese, the Egyptian, the Greek and the Roman ones) thus offered through the census the premises of the emergence and of the development from a common tree of the three twin sciences statistics, demography and accountancy, in discontinuous, diverse forms, which were not rigorously regulated until the Romans, but having an exceptional potential. The emergence of the three sciences is preceded by the writing of the numbers and of the alphabet.

2. Historical and cultural landmarks of the three sciences 2.1 Brief history of Statistics A brief history of the statistical science requires briefly covering

several stages starting with the old statistics or pre-statistics attested as early as 5000 years ago and that lasted nearly 4 millennia as a practical orientation tool for managers. The descriptive stage, or the stage of the description of the state is the first manifestation of statistics as a science in the modern meaning of the word. The German school founded by Hermann Conring (1606-1681), the author of the first descriptive statistics course, entitled Notatia rerum publicorum (1660) uses the word statistics, as a Latin or Italian status-type derivative as statista, whose meanings of situation, status or state and also of politician versed in the affairs of state are


metamorphosed in the name of a new science. The descriptive stage is also strongly related to Gottfried Achenwall (1719-1772), the fecund spirit of the Gottingen school, the scientist who, among other things, popularized the concept of statistics by using it with the meaning of in-depth knowledge of the respective and compared situation (status) of each state, while his professor Martin Schmeitzel (1679-1747), a native of Braşov had apparently invented it, and A.L. von Schlözer (1735-1809), the most faithful disciple of Achenwall and his successor at the university department, provided it with the academic brilliance through the famous aphorism statistics is history at rest, the statistic history in movement. A.L. von Schlözer is the one who discovered that statistics cannot be conceived or defined outside numbers, consolidating the essence of statistics through numerical determinations.

The descriptive statistical knowledge in this long Middle Ages period is a phased process of understanding, coordinating or adapting and anticipating the variation of the external world through the description of the state, but also by understanding its past, by the formal and less profound correlation, by adapting past events to the present time and easy anticipations on short and medium-term. The objective of the descriptive statistical knowledge or of the descriptive scientific approach is to know the variation of a changing world, temporally, spatially and organizationally finite (the economic life, the social life, the actual political life, the prosaic date or the ephemeral indicator) rather that the series of territorial and long-term data or the string of real variants the normal or asymmetric empirical distribution, together with all the amazing internal laws hidden under the veil of numbers. The statistical descriptive approach is essentially total (exhaustive) and its root is almost exclusively the census and the statistical monograph is the main tool for the description of the state and Dimitrie Cantemir remains the first Romanian thinker of descriptive statistics due to his paper “Descriptio Moldaviae”...

If the descriptive statistics was preponderantly oriented towards information and description through information, the school of the political arithmetic of the English political arithmeticians opens the excessively pragmatic stage of the statistical science, providing the premises for emphasizing regularities in the social and economic phenomena and for formulating regularities or even predictions, prefiguring the essence of modern statistics. John Graunt (1620-1674) thus becomes the first modern statistician of the modern scientific world, initiating the quantity scientific, methodological exploration, of a fertile variation field such as the demographic one, previously non-confronted but rather merely recorded, in order to formulate pertinent quality-related conclusions not only descriptive


or spatial ones, but also especially, temporal ones. John Graunt actually marks the year of birth of statistics as a science, by the appearance of his paper Bills of mortality…, in 1662 and by the huge impact, in the next decade, through the five successive editions (enviable success to this day). The complete title Graunt’s paper is Natural and political observations upon the bills of mortality chiefly with reference to the government, religion, trade, growth, air, diseases etc. of the City of London. From the dedication of this memorable paper, dedication to the Chairman of the British Royal Society we can infer the importance and originality of his discoveries: „ I conceive, That it doth not ill become a Peer of the Parliament or Member of his Majesties Council,, to consider That the irreligious Proposals of some, to multiply people by Polygamy, is withal irrational, and fruitless, That the troublesome seclusions in the Plague-time are not a remedy to be purchased at vast inconveniences, That the greatest Plagues of the City are equally, and quickly repaired from the Country, that the wasting of Males by Wars and Colonies do not prejudice the due proportion between them and Females, That London, the Metropolis of England, is perhaps a Head too big for the Body and possibly too strong, That this Head grows three times as fast as the Body unto which it belongs, That the Trade, and very City of London, removes Westward...” The sources of the scientific training of this first statistician and demographer, at the same time, where the method of observation, formulated by the natural history of Francis Bacon, the method of accounts, or more generally, the method of the double recording into the accounts (or of the “double entry” as it was called at the time by its author, Luca Paciolo), the balance method and an overall (demo-economic) concept of the society. John Graunt is honored today for the accuracy of his statistical thinking, with which he discovered the first scientific regularities and unifirmities, and also for revealing the possibilities of prdicting the analysed phenomena, and he was recognised for three exceptional merits, in formulating numeric results, then in using statistical and demographic analysis procedures, but, especially in the originality of the thinking and working method. The English political arithmeticians were also the first demographers, inevitably providing their statistical science with demographic valences. With Johann Peter Süssmilch (1707-1767), who succeeded in synthesizing political arithmetic by carefully analysing and investigating the explanation of the phenomena of the human life, by formulating hypotheses about regularities and finally regularities of models or theories governing populations, by correlating demographic, social and economic phenomena, by the dynamic examination of the proposed theoretical models, by the critical selection and assessment


of data, the process of defining statistics as a science was completed. The quantity or numeric approach is extended by the systemic vision of Johann Peter Süssmilch. This “brilliant and solitary German meteor” marked the defeat of the descriptions specific to the German school, by the “political arithmetic” or the English pragmatism and intuition. After his death, statistics was completely established as a science and was about to enter its classical and profoundly inductive period.

The emergence of the probability theory and the formulation of the theorem of the law of large numbers, by Jakob Bernoulli (1654-1705) in the paper Ars conjectandi, the description of the normal distribution function by Friedrich Karl Gauss (1775-1855) and Pierre-Simon Laplace (1740-1827), the development by Thomas Bayes (1702-1761) of the subjective probability theory and of the statistical interference based on it, the description by Simeon Denis Poisson (1781-1840) of the distribution of the rare events by their specific law are a few representative moments of the period of maturation of the classical or inductive statistics. The application of the probability theory to the study of the social phenomena was initiated by Adolphe Quetelet (1796-1874), a Belgian statistician, the creator of the controversial "average man".

The modern statistics stage is crystallized around the Anglo-Saxon school of mathematical statistics, of the International Statistics Congresses, beginning with 1853, but also of the International Statistics Institute in 1885, as a result of the generalization of the operation of the national statistics institutions. The universal coordinates of modern statistics are Oxford, Cambridge and London, the publicity ones Biometrika and Annals of Eugenics, and the institutional corollary of the Royal Statistical Society. The creators of modern statistics, from Karl Pearson (1857-1936), Francis Galton (1822-1911), Ronald Aylmer Fisher (1890-1962), Arthur Lyon Bowley (1869-1957), Francis Ysidro Edgeworth (1845-1926), William Sealy Gosset known under the pseudonym of “Student”(1876-1937), Charles Eduard Spearman (1883-1945), George Udny Yule (1871-1951) to Maurice Kendall (1907-1983) extended the application of the statistical science to the most diverse areas. Numerous methods and tools took over and immortalized their names and contributions or the mark of their statistical thinking in the scientific research.

In 1924, the International Statistical Institute favours the survey method and the representativeness of the samples and thus draws attention on the advantages resulting from the application of the representative method (World Statistics Congress, Rome 1925). However, Jerzy Neyman (1894-1981), American mathematician and statistician of Polish origin and


its exposition, held in 1934, before the members of the famous Royal Statistical Society, was necessary to officially record the birth of the modern survey theory. The scientific use of statistics and the employment of the professional statistician become an even more acute necessity after the resounding failure of the magazine Literary Digest, in the presidential elections of 1936, in the U.S.A., which failure had been caused by the dilettantism of its opinion polls. From 1938, England and France shift to the oeganization of public opinion survey institutes. The statistical problems are now the ones of assessment, specification and distribution, in addition to the substantiation of the statistical inference sampling methods. Completeness yields to the inference.

The evolution of statistical research and the diversification of the stages composing it in relation to the other types of research continued and continues today. The statistics of the second half of the 20th century lends to the other sciences its own concepts and principles, methods and techniques, tools and tests (which are in a outstanding facelift). Claude Shannon’s (1916-2001) and Warren Weaver’s (1894-1978) mathematical theory, predicted by the theory of consonantiste psychology of Ştefan Odobleja (1902-1978) and followed by the theory of informational energy of Octav Onicescu (1892-1983) or of the entropic information of Nicolae Geogescu-Roegen (1906-1994), informational symmetry and the balanced use of information are a few aspects of the extended contemporary stage of statistics. The predominant meaning of science of the statistics of the last three centuries is also the result of the unanimous recognition of the fact that it has exceeded the stage of incipient science whose body includes laws, which has explanatory capacity and the skill to prepare methods, models and theories (protoscience). The statistical science and its research characteristic to the new millennium use explicit assumptions, repeatable processes under the name of methds, accurate observation and measuring methods under the name of techniques and tools, and mathematical support for the processing and interpretation of its results.

With an institutional tradition of more than a century and a half, with continuous participations of the International Statistical Institute, the first journal of statistics, Statistical Annals, founded in 1860, with the creation of a first modern European census in the period 1859 – March 1860, and of the famous census performed in 1930, whose archives were requested in Berlin too, due to the originality of the solution in solving simultaneous ethic problem through the maternal language, the religious membership and the citizenship, with the construction of statistical tools, comparable in terms of utility with the ones existing in the international practice, of the


type of Argus price indices, with statistical theory papers as valuable as the Statistical method of Nicolae Georgescu-Roegen or of the Actuarial mathematics treatise of Gheorghe Mihoc (1906-1981), with managers of the national statistical institute such as Sabin Manuilă (1894-1964) and Anton Golopenţia (1909-1951), with its many academic personalities who influenced the international statistical thinking from Dimitrie Gusti (1880-1955), to Octav Onicescu or Ştefan Odobleja, the Romanian statistical school had a contribution correctly assessed as innovative and recognized as substantial in the universal statistical heritage.

2.2. Brief history of the writing, of the numbers and of the alphabet or the demographic beginnings

Starting from the observation that statistics and demographics and accounting are initially separated by writings on various populations (including the human ones) and property or welfare, based on a widely used alphabet, it is natural to identify their emergence in parallel with the moment of the first writing or of the first alphabet, temporarily revitalizing such a difficult historical problem, rather than to try to explain it completely. The European origin of the first alphabet is generally accepted, thus being recognized that the first symbolic and especially accessible literary writing, the Phoenician one dating from 900-800 B.C. The human individual, man in general has continually sought adequate means of exteriorising his brain complexity. If we validate the assumptions of Jacques van Ginneken, then no articulate language was before the writing, but writing rather appeared together with the primitive language of gestures. In other words, the man began to speak, tilting the shoulders, shaking hands and uttering guttural sounds, but simultaneously he drew signs, symbols, more or less randomly, on the ground, plants, snow, sand, or he read the signs left by animals in their passage. To write means, first of all, to draw. A first assumption identifies drawing as the first form of writing, although today the “braille” writing substantially expands the concept itself … A second important relationship is that between numbers and letters. The primordiality of the number economically and socially insinuates in the thinking of any unprejudiced man. The number was first. The writing was initially noted by drawing numbers. Thus we could conclude that mathematics preceded the writing, as the most veridical source of inspiration of the alphabet. When where the first numbers drawn in time? Nicked bones as representation of the passage of time appear 30,000 years BC. Unearthed mummified dead had clothes on which beads were sewn marking the passage of time or “the age of the deceased”. Two legends remain interesting in the analyzed context. The first, an Egyptian legend


recounts how the Egyptian god Thoth informed king Thamos that he had discovered writing. Almost afraid of the consequences, the king accused him of being an enemy of civilisation, because young people, who had been forced until then to remember what they were told, with the use of the alphabet, will become slack and will cease to enhance their memory. Writing or joining hieroglyphics was thus going to cause an atavistic fear among the ignorant (illiterate). The second legend, also from the ancient Greek world, is that of Cadmus. The story goes that the son of a Phoenician king and the grandson of Poseidon, mythological Cadmus left, Phoenicia in search of his sister Europa, abducted by Zeus, who had changed into a bull. Wandering on the sea, Cadmus arrived in Boeotia and founded Thebes, where as soon as he was elected king, he married Harmonia, daughter of Ares and Aphrodite, giving Thebans the alphabet he knew from his country Phoenicia. The conclusion of the two legends becomes particularly simple, namely that the origin of the first writings about the human population and those about the alphabet are lost in the millenary mists of mythology. From the information and the historical documents preserved, the first writings seem to have accompanied the clay boxes used for the commercial samples transported to the Mesopotamian Middle East, about six thousand years ago. These boxes evolved, becoming clay tablets, mediating the unique cuneiform writing system of numbers and especially of words. Sumerians, Akkadians, Assyrians are early carriers of a type of cuneiform writings, through the incredible immensity of ancient spaces. The simplest typological approach identifies four kinds of writing: simple pictographic writings or strings of pictograms or drawings inter-correlated or connected by a common idea of symbolic pictographic writings or strings of pictograms transfiguring a name or an abstract subject having the most eloquent example in the Egyptian hieroglyphic writing (a tenacious and ingenious sequence of drawings whose objects are parts of the human body, geometric figures) demotic writings derived from symbolic pictographic writings in time by stylization and sinusoidal linearization where each sign represents a word and alphabetic writings where each sign represents a letter (the letters being reduced as systematic number down to a threshold after which they re-multiply by the diversity of the accents). The difficult Phoenician alphabet gradually turned into a new one, called Hellenic, and subsequently the Latin one appeared, the latter underlying the first census that was truly rigorous from the methodological point of view. However, seeking the first human writings and implicitly the emergence of the alphabet the first demographic writings can be detailed. The Romans with their practical skills gave the census a unitary methodological character,


generating the language and technique of the modern census. The period between two censuses was called by the Latins “lustrum”. Introduced in Rome by Servius Tullius (578 – 534 BC) the Roman “censuses were performed every five years. In Augustus’ age, in a Rome "of several continents” which had become an extending empire, the frequency increased first to ten and even 15 years, with the decrease of the imperial resources, respectively under Diocletian. “Census populi” or the census operation was initially performed in the field of Mars, its management being entrusted to “censors”, while the statements of the citizens on the occasion of the census were stored in the “Tabularium” or the “public archive”. At Roma, for each of the four circumscriptions of the capital city a “curator” was appointed, with population census and tax collection competences. The position of censor, a position with essential population census competences, was created by the Romans in the period of the Republic, around 440 BC and in Dacia, which was under Roman occupation, censuses known as “census provinciae” were performed. Detailed and rigorous imperial-type censuses were preceded by “libri censuales” or records of the population made immediately after the conquering the province by the Romans. The first censuses with a renewed information content were actually performed much later, i.e. in 1749, in Sweden in 1790 in the U.S.A. in 1800 in England, and in 1801 in France. The first census considered truly modern was the one performed in Belgium, in 1846, under the leadership of statistician Adolphe Quetelet, and in our country the one performed after the Union of 1859, led by Dionisie Pop Marţian. These censuses began to be organised based on modern methods, relatively similar to the censuses of the 3rd millennium, in terms of content and variables.

2.3. Brief history of the emergence of accounting records or of the

beginning of accountancy As shown in the specialised literature4, which is also proved by the

practice, the economic records are the main data source of the informational economic system and also one of its basic components. Based on the nature of the data, the acquiring, processing and representation method, it is deemed that the economic records take three distinct forms: statistical, accounting and technical and operational recording. These three forms of records are closely related, they are interdependent and complement each other. Since the object of research in this section of the work is accountancy,

4 Enache G., (1977), Bazele contabilităţii, Scientific and Encyclopaedic Publishing House, Bucharest, pp.11-16


we will present its definition below, and a brief history of the emergence of the accounting records, of accountancy in general.

The first definitions of accountancy were generally focused on the traditional bookkeeping function (documentary records), fulfilled by the accountant. Over time, the accountant was involved, in addition to the documentary records, into a number of complex activities of planning, evaluation, verification and audit which led to the evolution of the definition of accountancy. Currently, in the national legislation5, accountancy is defined as activity specializing in the measurement, evaluation, knowledge, management and control of assets, liabilities and equity, as well as of the results obtained from the activity of the economic entities. To this end, accountancy must provide the chronological and systematic recording, processing, publishing and keeping of information related to the financial position, financial performance and other information related to the business, both for their internal requirements, as well as in the relationships with the current an potential investors, the financial and commercial creditors, the customers, the public institutions and other users.

It is believed that the first accounting records emerged with the writing, in Sumer. Thus the scribe wrote on the wet clay plate the undertaken obligations, and the parties involved into negotiations confirmed by signature that the notes were correct. Later, the use of coins by the Greeks, 600 years BC, boosted trade and thus the accounting records. With regard to the history of accounting, mention can be made of the fact that many famous authors analysed over time the aspects of the emergency and development of accountancy. Among them, the French professor Bernard Colasse groups the evolution of accountancy into three main periods6. In the early Middle Ages, accountancy was characterized by simplicity. The end of the Middle Ages marks the transition to the second phase in the evolution of accountancy, when due to the fast development of the commercial and banking activity, especially in the area of the Italian republics, double entry bookkeeping will go beyond the administrative area bringing forth the economic rationale. Accountancy is thus widely adopted, in Europe. In the view of professor Colasse, the 19th century and the impact of the industrial revolution on the national economies will determine the passage to a third stage in the evolution of accountancy, characterized by the development and separation of management accounting from the financial one or by the

5 Accounting Law no. 82/1991, republished, art. 2 6 Matei Marius Ştefan “De la primordialitatea aparenţei juridice la reflectarea realităţii economice sau calea de evoluţie a contabilităţii româneşti”, PhD Thesis, ASE, Bucharest, 2004, pp.22-24


recognition of the role of information in the decision-making process, of the accounting balance or of the profit and loss account.

Luca Paciolo7 had a special impact on the evolution of accountancy through his treatise “Summa de Aritmetica, Proportioni et Proportionalita” (Everything about arithmetic, geometry and proportions”). Prepared in 1494 at Venice, the paper is viewed as the first general treatise of practical arithmetic and algebra ever published. The chapter entitled “Particularis de computis e scripturris” is dedicated to accountancy. In this chapter the author merged the accounting knowledge used until then that he knew8, comprehensive and understandable description of the new method of accounting. Pacioli does not specify whether the information presented is inspired by previous writings or by the practice of financiers and traders of his time. What can be said with certainty is the influence of the Venetian experience, a genuine trade centre in those times9.

3. A final remark

In conclusion, with the emergence and generalization of the alphabet, the conditions of scientific investigation and the related methods were also developed, in incipient stages, and the first census works simultaneously generated statistics, demography and accountancy, conferring a unique scientific aura to the first census of the ephemeral empires...

References Brian Halweil, Lisa Mastny (2004), Starea Lumii, Technical Publishing

House, Bucharest. Colibaba D., Mihăescu C.,Sora V. .(1998), Demografie matematică, ASE

Publishing House, Bucharest. Gheorghe Enache „Bazele contabilităţii”, Scientific and Encyclopaedic

Publishing House, Bucharest, 1977 Gheţău V.(1979), Perspective demografice, Scientific and Encyclopaedic

Publishing House, Bucharest, Golopenţia A. (2002), Opere complete, vol. II- Statistică, demografie and 7 Luca Pacioli, born in 1445, was a true Renaissance figure, with extended literature, art, mathematics, business and science knowledge. 8 Laurenţiu Dobroţeanu “Contabilitatea în Evul Mediu – primele tehnici moderne de contabilitate” – Contabilitatea, expertiza şi auditul afacerilor, no.7, July, page 15. 9 Matei Marius Ştefan “De la primordialitatea aparenţei juridice la reflectarea realităţii economice sau calea de evoluţie a contabilităţii româneşti”, PhD Thesis, ASE, Bucharest, 2004, pp.32-33


geopolitică, Encyclopaedic Publishing House, Bucharest, Matei Marius Ştefan “De la primordialitatea aparenţei juridice la reflectarea

realităţii economice sau calea de evoluţie a contabilităţii româneşti”, PhD Thesis, ASE, Bucharest, 2004

Pescaru, A. 1968- Elemente de demografie, Scientific Publishing House, Bucharest,

Săvoiu, G. (2004), Statistică aplicată în domeniul economic and social, Independenţa Economică Publishing House, Piteşti,

Săvoiu, G. (2006), Populaţia lumii între explozie and implozie demografică, International University Press Publishing House, Bucharest.

Săvoiu, G. (2012), Statistică generală cu aplicaţii în contabilitate, University Publishing House, Bucharest.

Sherman, Irwin W., Sherman, Vilia G, (1989), Biology. A Human Approach, 4 Ed. Oxford University Press, New York,

Trebici, V. (1975), Mică enciclopedie de demografie, Scientific and Encyclopaedic Publishing House, Bucharest.

Trebici, V. (1996), Demogafie. Excerpta et selecta, Encyclopaedic Publishing House, Bucharest.

Contabilitatea, expertiza şi auditul afacerilor, no.7, July Accounting Law no. 82/1991, republished


Theoretical Theoretical Theoretical Theoretical Aspects Concerning Aspects Concerning Aspects Concerning Aspects Concerning the the the the Testing Testing Testing Testing of the of the of the of the Significance Significance Significance Significance of the of the of the of the Regression ModelRegression ModelRegression ModelRegression Model


„Artifex” University of Bucharest Alexandru URSACHE, PhD. Student

Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Bogdan DRAGOMIR, PhD. Student

Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Georgeta BARDAŞU (LIXANDRU), PhD. Student

Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Marius POPOVICI, PhD. Student

Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

Abstract Before being utilized, any model based on the regression function

must be analysed and accommodated to the actual conditions implied by the performed analysis. The veracity of the outcomes resulting out of the utilization of the regression model implies that the significance of the model being taken into consideration is tested. Testing the significance of the regression linear model can be accomplished by applying statistical procedures, out of which we shall consider only the Student test and the variation analysis.

Key words: significance, regression, test, parameter, model

In submitting the two procedures applied to testing the hypotheses formulated on the parameters of the regression model, the following emphasizes are to be considered: - the estimators of the parameters of the regression linear model are of minimum dispersion in the class of non-removed estimators; - if the parameters of the model are estimated by means of the least squares method, then the dispersion of the residual is estimated through the relation:


∑=−

=n

iie

n1

22

2

1ˆ εσ (1)

The estimator of the variance of the residual variable is a non-

removed estimator: ( ) 22ˆ εε σσ =E

- the residual variable is following up a normal repartition )ˆ,0( 2εσN .

Starting from the properties of the estimators of the regression linear

model, the estimators a and b are linear combinations of randomly variable normally distributed1.

In order to define the statistics, the follow two situations are to be considered:

• the dispersion of the residual variable is known. Considering the expressions of the two estimators, it is resulting that

these ones are meeting the following two properties:

.1,ˆ

,)(

,ˆ

2

22

2

2

+→

−→

∑

x

ii

x

nbNb

xxaNa

σσ

σ

ε

ε

(2)

Considering the properties of the normal distribution as well as the above outcomes, the following results are obtained:

( )

( )).1,0(

1

ˆˆ

),1,0(

)(ˆˆ

2

2ˆ

2

ˆ

N

n

x

n

bbbb

N

xxaaaa

x

b

ii

a

→

+

−=−

→

−−

=−∑

σσ

σ

σσ

ε

ε (3)

These outcomes are useful for testing some hypotheses formulated in respect of the parameters, as well as for defining the corresponding intervals of confidence.

• the dispersion of the residual variable is unknown. 1 Anghel, M.G. (2014) – “Econometric Model Applied in the Analysis of the Correlation between Some of the Macroeconomic Variables”, Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment/Nr. 1


In order to define the statistics used for testing the significance of the parameters of the regression linear models we have to keep in mind that:

- if niNxi ,...,1),1,0( =→ , then

∑=

→=n

inixz

1

22 ;λ

- if niNxi ,...,1),,0( 2 =→ σ , then

∑=

→

=

n

in

ixz

1

2

2

;λσ

- if )1,0(Nxi → and 2kz χ→ , then

ktkz

x →/

.

In terms of practical analysis, the dispersion of the residual variable

is not known, this one being estimated through the relation (1). Taking into consideration the calculation relationship of the Student statistics and applying the three properties, the following results are obtained:

- for the coefficient of the slope of the regression line: In order to test H0: aa ˆ= , with the alternative H0: aa ˆ≠ , we have to

keep in mind the fact that:

( )( )

2

2

ˆ

2ˆ

)(ˆˆ

−→−−

=

−−

=−∑

ne

xii

a

tnaa

xxaaaa

σσ

σσ ε (4)

- for the free term In order to test the null hypothesis H0: bb ˆ= , with the alternative : H1: bb ˆ≠ , we have to keep in mind the fact that:

( )

( )

.1

ˆ

ˆ

ˆ

ˆ2

2

2ˆ−→

−+

−=−

∑

n

ii

b

t

xx

x

n

bbbb

εσσ

(5)

These two outcomes are useful for testing the significance and defining the intervals of confidence for the two parameters of the regression line2.

2 Manole, A. et. al. (2013) – “Conditional Probability and Econometric Models”, Romanian Statistical Review Supplement., Issue 1/2013


• Testing the null hypothesis when there is an established

significance threshold, if 2;2/

ˆˆ

ˆ−>−

n

a

taa

ασ

, then the null hypothesis is

rejected. This test is used in order to set up whether the linear dependence between the two characteristics is a significant one. In this case the testing goes for H0: a=0, with the alternative H1: 0≠a . The null hypothesis is

rejected if 2;2/

ˆˆ

ˆ−> n

a

ta

ασ

.

• Defining the interval of confidence: For a threshold of significance α established out of the Student repartition table the value

2;2/ −ntα is set up for n-2 degrees of liberty.

• A specific interval of confidence is defined for each parameter. - For the parameter a, the interval of confidence is:

anan taata ˆ2;2/ˆ2;2/ ˆˆˆˆ σσ αα −− +≤≤− (6)

- For the free term the interval of confidence is defined as:

bnbn tbbtb σσ αα ˆˆˆˆ2;2/ˆ2;2/ −− +≤≤− (7)

In order to test if the linear dependence between the two variables is significant, namely if the value of the coefficient of the slope differs from zero, the dispersion analysis is applied as well.

Each parameter of the regression model would be separately tested or a procedure of a simultaneous testing could be applied. As the two estimators, a and b , are not independent alleatory variables, it is considered that the successive testing of the two parameters is not exactly correct. Therefore, the simultaneous testing of the two parameters is recommended. The test hypothesis would be defined as follows:

000 ,: bbaaH ==

001 ,: bbaaH ≠≠

If noting with )ˆ,ˆ(

ˆba

Ω the estimator of the covariance matrix of the

parameters of the regression linear model then we define:

2;2222

2

1)ˆ,ˆ(

1

,

)ˆ()ˆ)(ˆ(2)ˆ(ˆ2

1

ˆˆ

ˆˆ

2

1

−

−−

→

−+−−+−=

−−

Ω

−−

=

∑ ni

i

baba

Fxbbbbaaxnaan

bb

aa

bb

aaF

εσ

(8)

For a simultaneous testing of the two parameters, we shall replace, within the expression of Fa,b, the a,b by a0, b0. For a given threshold of


significance α, the value 2;2; −nFα is read from the Fisher – Snedecor table of

distribution. If the inequality Fcalculated > Ftableted is is fulfilled, then the null

hypothesis is rejected, accepting that at least one parameter differs significantly from the specified value.

The dispersion analysis is a statistical procedure for testing the quality of the model, which has as a starting point the decomposition of the total variance of the dispersion due to the regression factor and the dispersion due to the action of the non-recorded factors3. We define the notions :

- ∑=

−=n

ii yySPT

1

2)( representing the sum of the squares of the terms of the

endogenous variable;

- ∑=

−=n

ii yySPE

1

2)ˆ( quantifying the sum of the squares of the estimated terms

deviations;

- ∑=

=n

iieSPR

1

2)( representing the sum of the squares of the estimating errors.

Between the three terms the equality SPT = SPE + SPR (9) is verified.

For each term out of the last equality the number of liberty degrees has to be set up. Thus, for the three terms, these are equal to n-1, n-2, 2-1.

In order to define the test statistics, the property of the variables 2χ has to be considered, namely: If x and z are two alleatory independent variables with distributions 2χ and k2 liberty degrees, then:

21;

2

1

/

/kkF

kz

kxF →=

Out of the property of the estimator a , it is resulting that:

( )2122

2

2ˆ /

)ˆ(ˆχ

σσ ε

→−

−=

−

∑ xx

aaaa

ia

(10)

Out of the property of the residual variable, we get:

3 Anghel, M.G. (2008) – “Utilizarea modelului de regresie în analiza situaţiei pieţei de capital” , Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment „România în procesul integrării europene”, nr. 12/2008


222

2

−→∑

ni

ie

χσ ε

(11)

In order to test the null hypothesis aaH ˆ:0 = we define:

( ))2,1(

)2/(

)ˆ(

2

22

−→−

−−

=∑

∑nF

ne

xxaa

F

ii

ii

(12)

The null hypothesis a=0 is tested, according to which the exogenous variable does not influence to a significant extent the values of the endogenous characteristic. The test relation is the following:

( ))2,1(

)2/(

ˆ

2

22

−→−

−

=∑

∑nF

ne

xxa

F

ii

ii

(13)

In order to set up an equivalent form for the last statistics, the fact that, under the null hypothesis conditions as to the independence of the two characteristics, the terms of the equality (9) are expressed:

( ) ( )∑∑ −=−= xxiayySPE i22 ˆˆ , while ( )∑ −= 2ˆ ii yySPR has to be

considered. The F test is written as an equivalent form:

)2/(

1/

−=

nSPR

SPEF (14)

Out of the last relation the expression of the statistics F is deducted depending on the value of the determination ratio R2:

)2(1 2

2

−−

= nR

RF . (15)

In order to set up whether the linear dependence between the two variables is a significant one, the estimated value F for the data series established for the two characteristics is compared with the tableted value of this statistics. If the inequality: )2;1(;1 −−> nFF α is observed, then the null

hypothesis H0: a=0 is rejected. For the significance threshold α it is ascertained that there is no significant linear dependence between the two variables4. 4 Anghelache, C., Anghel, M.G., Manole, A., Dincă (Nicola), Z. (2014) – „The Regression Model used to Analyze the Correlation between Production and Labor”, Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2014


If there is a significant linear dependence between the two variables, it has been demonstrated that R2 = r2. Under these circumstances, the relation (15) turns to:

222

2

)2(1 −=−

−= ntn

r

rF .

There is a new statistics arising for testing the linear dependence between the two variables:

222

1−→−⋅

−= ntn

r

rt .

In practice, there is an issue occurring, namely to set out whether the various regression linear models, which parameters have been estimated for the data recorded at the level of various populations, are significantly differing5. Let’s consider the data series ( ) niii yx ,1, = and ( ) ',1',' niii yx = for the

two statistical characteristics, in the case of two populations taken into account. Based on the first series of values, the parameters of the regression linear model as well as the dispersion of the slope coefficient have been estimated:

- the regression linear model: ii xaby ˆˆˆ += ;

- the dispersion of the slope coefficient: 2ˆˆ aσ .

For the second population, a similar procedure leads to the following outcomes:

- the estimated regression line is ii xaby ''ˆ'ˆ'ˆ +=

- the dispersion of the slope coefficient is 2'ˆˆ aσ

The issue to consider is to set out whether the two regression models have different characteristics as against the coefficient of the regression line slope. In order to test if the two coefficients of regression differ significantly we apply the relation:

2'ˆ

2ˆ

'ˆˆ

aa

aat

σσ +

−=

(16)

5 Anghel M.G. et al. (2014) – Using the regression model for the portfolios analysis and management, Theoretical and Applied Economics, Volume XXI, No.4


The alleatory variable d = a – a’ is defined in order to measure the difference between the slopes of the two regression lines. In order to establish if the two lines have the same value of the regression slopes, we define:

- the null hypothesis of the test H0: d = 0, with the alternative H1: d ≠ 0 ;

- the test statistics: d

dt

ˆ

ˆ

σ= .

If considering that the two estimators are independent, then the test statistics is:

2'ˆ

2ˆ/ˆ

aadt σσ += (17)

In order to test the null hypothesis, a significance threshold α must be set out. Out of the Student table of distribution , the tableted value is set out as 2/αt . If the value calculated through (17) is higher that 2/αt the null

hypothesis is rejected. It is accepted that the two coefficients are significantly different. Conclusion The utilisation of the regression model is giving very good results for the economic analyses. In practice, there is an issue to be considered, namely, in case there are various regression models which statistical significance has been checked up, which one should we apply to? We are interested to get close positions for the parameters estimated for the recorded data In case they are significantly daggering, we use the test „t” given by the relation:

2'ˆ

2ˆ

'ˆˆ

aa

aat

σσ +

−=

Then, we use the null hypothesis and finally we analyse the

inequality: F>T1-∞; (1; n-2)

References

Anghel, M.G. (2014) – “Econometric Model Applied in the Analysis of the Correlation between Some of the Macroeconomic Variables”, Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment/Nr. 1


Anghel M.G. et al. (2014) – Using the regression model for the portfolios analysis and management, Theoretical and Applied Economics, Volume XXI, No.4

Anghel, M.G. (2013) – „Modele de gestiune şi analiză a portofoliilor” , Editura Economică, Bucureşti

Anghel, M.G. (2008) – “Utilizarea modelului de regresie în analiza situaţiei pieţei de capital”, Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment „România în procesul integrării europene”, nr. 12/2008

Anghelache, C., Anghel, M.G., Manole, A., Dincă (Nicola), Z. (2014) – „The Regression Model used to Analyze the Correlation between Production and Labor”, Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2014

Anghelache, C. (2013) – “Elemente de econometrie teoretică”, Editura Artifex, Bucureşti

Anghelache, C., Lilea, F.P.C. (2012) – “Econometrie”, Editura ARTIFEX, Bucureşti

Anghelache C., Isaic-Maniu AL., Mitruţ C., Voineagu V. (2011) - „Sistemul conturilor naţionale: sinteze şi studii de caz” , Editura Economică, Bucureşti

Bardsen, G. et. al. (2005) – “The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling”, Oxford University Press

Benjamin, C. et.al. (2010) – „Forecasting with an Econometric Model”, Springer

Dougherty, C. (2008) – “Introduction to econometrics. Fourth edition”, Oxford University Press

Manole, A. et. al. (2013) – “Conditional Probability and Econometric Models”, Romanian Statistical Review Supplement., Issue 1/2013

Mitruţ, C. (2008) – „Basic econometrics for business administration”, Editura ASE, Bucureşti


The System of Financial Analysis Indicators The System of Financial Analysis Indicators The System of Financial Analysis Indicators The System of Financial Analysis Indicators Applying to the Activity Run by an Economic Applying to the Activity Run by an Economic Applying to the Activity Run by an Economic Applying to the Activity Run by an Economic

AgentAgentAgentAgent

Lecturer M ădălina Gabriela ANGHEL PhD.

“ Artifex” University of Bucharest

Abstract The first operation which should be achieved by the capital investors

when setting up a portfolio consists of fixing the component equities within its structure. Thus, in order to adopt the optimum decision as to investing, they proceed to a thorough analysis and evaluation of the potential equities to be acquired. Based on the data out of the accounting balance sheets over the period 2009-2013 this article is analysing the activity run by a commercial company from our country, listed with the Bucharest Stock Exchange, using in this respect a system of relevant indicators, which interpretation allows us to reach doubtless conclusions, depending on which the future development may be predicted.

Key words: indicators system, analysis, solvency, liquidity, profitableness.

Introduction In the context of a more and more developed competitive economy,

the economic and financial analysis of the activity run by the economic agents represents an activity of a specific significance. In order to fix such indicators allowing the management of the economic entities to adopt the best decisions at the right moment, the information contained by the accounting documents of synthesis are frequently combined with the specific methods and techniques belonging to other disciplines, such as mathematics, statistics or econometrics.

The main targets of the economic and financial analysis of the company’s activity are the following: establishing the net patrimony of the economic entity, namely the accounting value of the shareholders’ wealth; establishing the financial health of the economic agent, namely detecting the eventual situation of financial unbalancing which might threat the forthcoming development of the company activity; establishing the


company liquidity and solvency; establishing the financial flexibility of the economic agent; characterising the efficiency of the patrimonial elements; drawing up the income and expenses budgets as well as the financing plans; evaluating the company performances.

The outcomes of the economic and financial analysis of the economic agents’ activity are basically addressed to their administrators, to the actual or potential shareholders, to the financial analysts, to the organisms specialized in financing economic activities (banks, investment companies, “mother” companies, other interested economic entities), as well as to the state.

The financial analysis of the information included in the accounting balance sheet implies the study of its component elements both from static point of view- the analysis of the relations existing between these components at a certain moment -, and from a dynamic point of view – the study of the evolution in time of one or several components of this document of synthesis1.

The research methodology In the frame of the present article, I chose to use a set of relevant

indicators considered as a system, meant to allow defining a model of analysis of the outcomes of the activity run by a commercial company. The selected indicators are the solvency rates, the liquidity rates and the profitableness rates2.

The choice of these rates is supported by the following argumentation: the liquidity is a major indicator for the analysis of a company; if the company is liquid, generally speaking, it is also a solvable one; in the situation a company is both liquid and solvable, for sure it is running a profitable activity. The analysis carried out consisted of the application of this system of indicators on the data out of the accounting balance sheets over the last five years of the company TURISM FELIX S.A. BĂILE FELIX.

TURISM FELIX S.A. BĂILE FELIX is a commercial company with domain of activity „Hotels and other accommodation facilities” (Cod CAEN Rev.2 – 5510). The main information referring to the issuer of the considered stock values are synthetized as follows:

1 Anghel M.G. (2013) – „Modele de gestiune şi analiză a portofoliilor” , Editura Economică, Bucureşti 2 Anghel M.G. (2013) – „Technical analysis versus fundamental analysis of securities”, Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment/Trim. II


Table 1. Issuer’s details Fiscal Cod / CUI 108526 Cod Register of Commerce J05/132/1991 Address Comuna Sanmartin Locality Baile Felix District Bihor

TURISM FELIX S.A. BĂILE FELIX holds a total social capital amounting 49,614,945.60 lei, which is divided in 496,149,456 shares of a nominal value of 0.1000 lei/share. The shares issued by the considered economic agent have been accepted for transaction within the Bucharest Stock Exchange by December 20th, 1996, and got the identification symbol the notation TUFE. The shares issued by TURISM FELIX S.A. BĂILE FELIX are presently transacted in the frame of the BVB stock exchange section on the main market REGS, being included in the II category of financial instruments.

The solvency rates The general solvency rate shows the capacity of the analysed

economic agent to pay back its debts. If the general solvency rate is recording a value below 1, then this one is insolvent3.

The rate of financial autonomy is expressing the financial

independence of the company as the weight of the own resources as against the long term drawn financial resources. To the extent this weight is higher the benefits for the total financial autonomy are higher. The value which this rate should record must count for minimum 50%.

The rate of the global autonomy is representing the capacity of self-

financing of the economic agent and the extent to which it can get through the payment obligations, and is established as a ratio between the own resources and the total means available with the company. A satisfactory situation is given by a minimum value of 33% of this indicator as against the total of the financing resources, while the maximum financial autonomy is recorded when its value is close 100%.

3 Păunică, M., Matac, L.M., Motofei, C., Manole, A. (2009) - “Some Aspects Regarding The Use Of Business Intelligence In The Financial Management”, Revista Metalurgia Internaţional nr 13/2009


The total debts rate is indicating the weight of the drawn financial

sources in the total passives of the company (active = passive). In practice, for considering that the company activity is secure, it is recommended that the value of the debts rate is placed below the threshold of 50%.

Table 2. The solvency rate of TURISM FELIX S.A. BĂILE FELIX over the period 2009 – 2013

Indicator The year

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 The general solvency rate 49.19 48.99 51.90 45.67 35.58 The financial autonomy rate 86.90 89.81 91.00 93.53 95.04 The global autonomy rate 85.16 87.99 89.26 91.52 92.38 The total debts rate 14.84 12.01 10.74 8.48 7.62

Source: own calculations

Out of the interpretation of the values recorded for the solvency rates during the period submitted to the analysis, one can conclude that the activity run by TURISM FELIX S.A. BĂILE FELIX is an extremely stable one, recording values very close to optimum mainly for the year 2013, when the financial autonomy rate reached the threshold of 95.04%, while the total debts rate recorded a very low value, of 7.62% only, these aspects being underlined through the following graphic representation:


The liquidity indicators The current (general) liquidity rate is reflecting the capacity of the

current available actives to turn to money availabilities meant to cover falling due debts on short term. The recommended value of this indicator is comprised by the interval 2 – 2.5, considering that the optimum value should count for about 24.

However, it can record different variations depending on the domain of activity5. A comfortable level of the indicator is comprised by the interval 1.5 – 2.0. Sub-unitary values are indicating a lack of balance at the level of the company treasury, the economic agent being in the situation to borrow or to sell part of his immobilized actives in order to pay his debts avoiding, thus, the bankrupt.

The immediate liquidity rate (the acid test) is expressing the

capability of the company to pay its short term debts, by resorting to those actives of the balance sheet of the highest degree of liquidity. A satisfactory value for the immediate liquidity would be considered, generally, as 0.8. The best value for this indicator is, generally speaking, 1 but we have to point out that in this case as well, we might deal with domains of activity where the immediate liquidity records values lower that 1 (the stocks holding a high weight within the total circulating actives).

The at sight liquidity (actual) rate is expressing the capability of the economic agent to honour his payment liabilities on short term based on the money availabilities (cash and current account) and the short term financial investments.

4 Manole, A. (2008) – “„Sistemul informatic pentru modelarea deciziei financiar-contabile”, Editura Artifex, Bucureşti 5 Anghel, M.G (2011) – “General aspects about management portfolios of financial instruments”, ART ECO - Review of Economic Studies and Research, Vol. 2/No. 2


Table 3. Indicators concerning the liquidity of TURISM FELIX S.A. BĂILE FELIX for the period 2009 – 2013

Indicator Year

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Current liquidity 2.40 2.61 4.22 6.14 4.29 Immediate liquidity 2.24 2.44 3.97 5.90 4.11 At sight liquidity 1.56 2.14 3.54 3.06 1.86

Source: own calculations

Based on the indicators previously established, we can allege that the activity carried on by TURISM FELIX S.A. BĂILE FELIX during the period submitted to the analysis is characterized by an adequate liquidity, recording values in line with the intervals recommended by the specialists of the field.

The profitableness The actives profitableness rate is emphasizing the way in which the

managers of the company are utilizing the total resources of the company (financial and real) so that profit is made.

The financial profitableness rate is expressing the efficiency in

utilizing the own capitals, namely the investment achieved by the shareholders of an economic entity through acquiring the company’s shares. In the situation that this indicator records increasing values, the return of the own capitals is efficient. The values recorded by this indicator must be higher than 5%.


The profits increase/decrease rate is calculated as against the level

recorded for the previous year, based on the following formula:

Table 4. Indicators of the profitableness rates of TURISM FELIX S.A.

BĂILE FELIX for the period 2009 – 2013

Indicator Year

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total net profit-lei 7.814.850 5.032.298 6.738.894 2.948.355 3.985.094 Actives profita-bleness rate (%) 3.67 2.38 3.47 1.53 2.06

Financial profita-bleness rate (%) 4.32 2.71 3.89 1.68 2.24

Profits evolution rate (%) -18,93* -35.61 33.91 -56.25 35.16

*In order to calculate the profits evolution rate for the year 2009 the profit recorded for the year 2008 has been considered, taken over from the accounting balance sheet but not submitted in the previous table.

As far as the profitableness of the own capitals is concerned, it must be emphasized the fact that the activity carried on in the frame of the company, characterized by a financial profitableness below 5% all over the analysed period of time, has been inefficient from the point of view of turning to account its own capitals6.

6 Anghel, M.G. (2013) – Identification of financial instruments – important step in building

portfolios, Romanian Statistical Review


In order to underline the profitableness, respectively the efficiency of utilizing the production factors available with the company, I calculated for each year of the analysed period the rate of the recorded profit. Although, as absolute values, a profit has been recorded for each year, when expressed in percentage points, this indicator shows a fluctuant evolution, with alarming deceases (the years 2010 and 2012), to more than half at the level of the year 2012 and a recovery for the year 2013.

Conclusions The financial analysis based on the data included by the accounting

balance sheet is representing a significant source of information for the capital investors but also for the decisions makers of the economic agent who can adopt the necessary steps in order to adjust the company activity, as the study is achieving a long term analysis (five years), surveying the evolution of the phenomenon on a long term basis which can be used by the management of the economic agent.

References

Anghel, M.G. (2013) – Modele de gestiune şi analiză a portofoliilor, Editura Economică, Bucureşti

Anghel, M.G. (2013) – Identification of financial instruments – important step in building portfolios, Romanian Statistical Review

Anghel M.G. (2013) – „Technical analysis versus fundamental analysis of securities”, Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment/Trim. II

Anghel, M.G. (2013) – Modele de construcţie a portofoliilor de instrumente financiare, Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment


Anghel, M.G (2011) – “General aspects about management portfolios of financial instruments”, ART ECO - Review of Economic Studies and Research, Vol. 2/No. 2

Anghel, M.G. (2006) – Analiza financiară a activităţii firmei pe baza informaţiilor cuprinse în bilanţul contabil, Simpozionul Ştiinţific Internaţional „Dezvoltarea economică durabilă – Management competitiv şi eficienţă economică”, Editura Artifex, Bucureşti

Anghelache, C.; Anghel, M.G. (2014) – Modelare economică. Concepte, teorie şi studii ce caz, Editura Economică, Bucureşti

Manole, A. (2008) – “„Sistemul informatic pentru modelarea deciziei financiar-contabile”, Editura Artifex, Bucureşti

Păunică, M., Matac, L.M., Motofei, C., Manole, A. (2009) - “Some Aspects Regarding The Use Of Business Intelligence In The Financial Management”, Revista Metalurgia Internaţional nr 13/2009

Robu, V; Vălceanu, Gh. (2010) – Analiză economică – financiară, Editura Economică, Bucureşti

Vintilă, G. (2010) – Gestiunea financiară a întreprinderii, Editura Didactică şi Pedagogică, Bucureşti

www.bvb.ro (Bursa de Valori Bucureşti)


I.G. Duca: “Cooperation is a mean of I.G. Duca: “Cooperation is a mean of I.G. Duca: “Cooperation is a mean of I.G. Duca: “Cooperation is a mean of harmonization in the fight between capital and harmonization in the fight between capital and harmonization in the fight between capital and harmonization in the fight between capital and

labor”labor”labor”labor”

Prof. Dan CRUCERU PhD “Artifex” University of Bucharest

Abstract This paper emphasizes the contribution of the famous Romanian

politician I.G. Duca to the development and independence of the cooperative sector in our country. There are reviewed some of his published opinions, and also a small excerpt of a political debate against Nicolae Iorga and Ion Mihalache. The works of IG Duca outline the moral side of cooperatives, considered to be of great importance in the attempt to implement the cooperative system in the Romanian economy, characterized by specific conditions.

Key words: cooperative, village, peasants, government, politics In the gallery of big scientific and political personalities of the pervious

century, preoccupied with the problems of cooperatives, a special place was held by I. G. Duca (1879-1933), leader of the National Liberal Party, many times minister or prime minister (1933). Known jurist, I. G. Duca was a promoter of a policy oriented towards French and British political and financial circles. His ideas and conception on the cooperation are presented in a work published in 1902 in Paris with the title: “Les sociétés coopératives en Roumanie” (“Cooperative societies in Romania”): “Cooperation - I. G. Duca wrote – is a system which assumes and proposes to resolve the social problem, by slowly and progressively transforming the present economic situation, through the help of an associative form, whose members, by a set of attributes, contribute to the enterprise and simultaneously benefit from it”. Further, to the question if this cooperative system is possible, a system that is organized by law during the respective period, I. G. Duca answers in the same work: “We believe that it will not be able to live through it, because always, big ideas that kneaded the world and had a tremendous influence on its destine, at first appeared in a splendid light, only to end as some limited and


precise reforms. This was the case of liberty, this is the case of cooperation, and probably this will be the case of socialism. World is no such little as one idea could govern it, and the social problem is too complex itself for a solution to be able to fulfill all its needs”. Such ideas, he promotes in his political activity, which justifies the expansion of the cooperation during the first part of the 20th century. That’s what I. G. Duca wrote in a paper published in 1921 in the “Cooperaţia română” (“Romanian Cooperation”) journal: “Cooperation is a mean of harmonization in the fight between capital and labor, the happiest of all conciliation forms proposed until today. But in reality, only two formulas were found to bring together the interests of work and capital. These formulas are: cooperation and participation to benefits. Cooperation has, over the participation to benefits the superiority to completely setting aside all the shortcomings of the capitalist regime. In other words, cooperation is a solution more radical than participation to benefits. The difference between them is the fact that one’s action, that is the participation to benefits, acts in breadth, while the other one’s, the cooperation, in depth. By one, happier results are achieved faster, but they are incomplete. By the other, you conquer slowly, but you conquer completely. In the end, the cooperative movement has another use: cooperation is not only an economic formula, is a superior conception on life, a supreme attempt to establish altruistic report between humans. Participation to benefits, which is still practiced by governments preoccupied to destroy the germs of a dangerous social agitation, does not have this idealistic side. Between both formulas, there is the distance between a solution and a belief”. The beginning of the century is clearly favorable to cooperative ideas and organization. After the existing examples and experiences, both in occidental world and in our country, it takes shape, more and more pregnant, a cooperative movement which is theoretically sound and included in legal provisions. The boost of this movement was objectively reflected in the mode to conceive cooperation in our country, especially on economic and political plan. The illustrious politician I. G. Duca emphasizes the moral side of this type of economic and social organization, as being of primordial importance in applying such concept in the specific Romanian environment. This is the answer he gives to the question asked by Nicolae Iorga in the Parliament, on November 26th, if he is capitalist or cooperator: “I am cooperator, because I am convinced that, truly, the future belongs to cooperative movement. I believe that, in villages, this movement must be developed, because it is the only capable to comply with the credit needs of the villagers. But I am not a man


who only keeps his eyes on distant shores, but also must take into account current realities. Or, in current realities, there are capitalist societies that I do not have the power to disband. Then a question arises: these companies are to be left in foreign hands, or we, Romanians, should shape that movement? Anyone who knows me is aware that I have been offered places in tens of boards and tens of societies and I didn’t agree to take seat in any board but two, and I shall take advantage of the first opportunity, all my friends also now, to leave my position in those banks”. Regarding the autonomy of the cooperation and the role of the state, of central house and of federals, I.G. Duca states: “for the Central House, the control right is only a right to advise and enrich. It wishes to be more a school than a supervisor… and therefore anytime a wrong is done to you, you should come to the Central House, and it would be happy to advise you and insist that proper justice prevails. So every enmity should disappear, any resentment of fear or shyness”.

“You must also think, gentlemen, at the federation of popular banks. The ideal of the Central House is that, as soon the popular banks would be strengthen, they should support, federalize between themselves and satisfy, through own means, all their needs, so the help from the State should not be necessary”. The autonomy of the cooperative movement and the role of the state in its organization is visible from the report on December 21st, 1918, in which, as minister of agriculture, he presented to the king, to be signed, the Decree law that establishes the Central of Cooperatives and the allotment of villagers: “Our hope, we say it without delay, is that soon the Romanian cooperation will reach an organization so strong, a so high conscience of its redemption social meaning, as the State can renounce without shortcomings at all attributes that today it’s still due to exercise. We express no doubt that through the new form taken by the Central of Cooperatives; it will contribute to the achievement of this goal”. During the first decades of the 20th century, a pivotal problem of cooperation was related to the autonomy of this movement in connection with the influence and tutelage of the state. I. G. Duca, referring to the control of the state and of the central institutions, spoke at a conference in 1910, in front of the control personnel and stated: “It is true that anyone who holds a position of power he is predisposed to make abuse of it and You committed yourselves to this sin, you went too deeply in the administration of cooperatives, I want to draw your attention on the fact that once you have gone down this slope, it would be hard to stop in time so that you would not disturb, through your intervention, the development of cooperative idea in its natural way”.


Few years later, in 1918, being minister of agriculture and learning from an elected member of the Central of popular banks, that the idea of federals does not find all necessary support at the directorate of the Central, which foresees their replacement by State subsidiaries, he categorically states: “this cannot be done, it would mean to turn 10 years back”. Another idea frequently present in the preoccupations of the economist I. G. Duca is linked to the educative role of cooperative activity and, especially, the elimination of politics from this activity. That’s what he said in 1905, at the Congress of cooperators in Bacău: “every time a villager comes to ask you for a loan, every time he asks for a prolongation, every time you meet him, advise him, enlighten him... the ideal is that peasants to reach redemption by themselves… to remove politics from popular banks… and also personal enmities and ambitions”. Of these words, as out of his activity as director, it can be drawn his dominant idea, also shared by E. Costinescu, author of the Law of 1903, that, by passing from the organization of state credit to the cooperative credit, the first thing that is to be respected and developed is private initiative, so villagers would escape the derogatory situation of expecting the mercy of the State. Another dominant idea he instilled in the souls of cooperators was the neutrality of cooperation to politics, idea that was carefully nourished by his successor Fotin Enescu. Separation between policy and cooperative organization is recorded as a force idea in all activity of I. G. Duca, even if he is a politician. Political and scientific personalities of the 3rd decade in the previous century: Nicolae Iorga, I. G. Duca, Ion Mihalache face each other directly regarding the issues of politics in cooperation, on the occasion of the discussion on the Chamber on the message of the king. That’s what the stenographic notes include, related to of the opinions expressed by the three politicians, in the question of politics in cooperation: I. G. Duca: “You have the right to go to popular banks and conquer them; to go to the federals and conquer them; we have no right on the popular banks, or tell our political friends in counties: “see to the popular banks”, because then we commit a crime that it should be denounced at the tribune of the Parliament, as Mr. Mihalache did today. N. Iorga: You’d do better to leave alone the banks, all of you. I. G. Duca: You are right. Me also, while I was director at the popular banks and while being member in the council – and here are people who were there with me and can inquiry on my words – I have always told the cooperators: do not involve the popular banks’ movement into politics, because you will compromise it. And we didn’t start to make politics in the popular


banks, but we always added that if politics will be made by the other parties, then let it be known that we will make politics as well. I. Mihalache is the first who become, as minister of domains, to make politics in popular banks. On this ground, he will find us on his path. N. Iorga: God forbid that I would come to power in the government and you make politics in cooperation. I. Mihalache: Mr. Duca, with you I think I can clearly reason. You have said that I made politics, going to the congress, and that I gave the word of command. Could you state more precisely what word of command did gave? I. G. Duca: I don’t remember, after four years, all the details. But, if you are interested, I shall remember and also bring to you the photo. I. Mihalache: Mr. minister, let us leave to others the technicalities and workarounds. I do not accuse you for fighting – I shall explain myself, and Mr. Iorga will see that he is in serious error when he believes that a right and fixed line of demarcation can be established between the economic struggle and political struggle, since both of them aim at the emancipation of peasants’ class (prolonged applauses on peasants’ benches), Mr. Iorga be patient, I shall develop. N. Iorga: I do not want to cause you any harm, by revealing an entire dossier of banks, confederated to draw out some politicians, who had no other merits, but had the banks in their own hands and so they were able to dominate the elections through these banks. Subsequently, neither of you should make politics in the banks, do not mock the peasantry that you are pretending to serve. I. G. Duca: You are absolutely right, but I hold on once more to be known by the National Peasant’s party, if the movement of cooperatives in villages is to be considered as its own patrimony, if it will desire to channel this movement in its own favor, then not only it will find us on its path, but certainly they will find you, Mr. Iorga’ To give a clearer shape to I. G. Duca’s position in this matter, we quote the article published in, in the journal “Cooperaţia română” (Romanian Cooperation): “let us hope that they who are called today to give the cooperative movement from rounded Romania its judicial form, they will know to inspire themselves in this wide social, humanitarian and idealistic conception of the cooperation, and will thus prepare for tomorrow, the guidance of the Romanian society, to an organization formula, more righteous and more harmonic”.


References Cruceru, D. (2014) – “Cooperaţia în România – Istorie şi actualitate ” ,

Editura Artifex, Bucureşti Mihalache, I. (1940) – “Problema cooperaţiei române” , 1940 Duca, I.G. (1923) – “Doctrina liberală” , 1923 Moldoveanu, C. (1938) – “Pionierii cooperaţiei române” , 1938. „Cooperaţia” Review, no. 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 - 1998-2006 Timuş G. (1934) – “Amintiri cooperatiste despre I.Gh. Duca şi Fotin

Enescu”, Editura Biblioteca Neoficială a Cooperaţiei, Bucureşti, 1934 Problemele cooperaţiei române, Bucureşti, 1925.


International Exchange of Goods and ServicesInternational Exchange of Goods and ServicesInternational Exchange of Goods and ServicesInternational Exchange of Goods and Services


„Artifex” University of Bucharest Andreea Gabriela BALTAC, PhD Student

Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Zoica NICOLA, PhD Student

Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Daniel DUMITRESCU, PhD Student

Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest Diana Valentina SOARE, PhD Student Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

Abstract This paper describes some of the most important aspects that

characterize the foreign trade of Romania until June 2013. One of the most important conclusions drawn is the fact that significant decreases in volume and value of both import and export were recorded. One key factor identified in the analysis is the decrease of manufacture capacity in the national industry, which still acts as a pressure factor on multiple facets of economic activities, including foreign trade.

Key words: import, export, goods, perspective, development On an overall basis, we can appreciate that the foreign trade activity did

develop negatively from the point of view of the volume but negatively as well as considering the two components, import and export. The decrease of the exports and imports has been stimulated also by the slight appreciation of the national currency. On this ground, the positive element of the appreciation (volatility) of leu implies a negative effect on the exports. Many of the exporters either tempered their activities, or recorded modest gains to the best, if not pure losses. Along with the effects of the economic and financial crisis, another element which generated a slower rhythm of evolution of the exports and imports, consists of the fact that the process of privatization and restructuring involved the closing-up of a number of companies or autonomous State supervised administrations, as well as of the fact that the quality of the manufactured products was not in the position to meet the foreign customers requirements.


The main aspect apart the export structure1 by major categories of goods (capital, intermediary and consumption goods) is represented by the fact that the massive reduction of the exchange of intermediary goods, mainly as far as the import are concerned was of the nature to diminish the productive capacity of the industry and other activities as well, during the last months of the year 2008, jeopardizing meantime the perspective of the economic activities for the months to come.

FOB exports, CIF imports and foreign trade operation balance during June 2012 – June 2013


Out of an analytical study of the import and export of intermediary

goods, it is clearly resulting that there significant decreases, some of them reaching up to 40% and even 50%, recorded by most of the groups of products of this category. Thus, for the position parts and accessories for terrestrial auto-vehicles spare, the decrease recorded by the import in January 2009 counts for over -29%, for position bearings, almost -27%, for position constructions and parts of metallic -27.4%, positions tissues over -23%, position parts and accessories meant to the equipments for data processing -39,45% and so on.

The weights held in the Romanian export by the main sections of the Combined Classified List for 2012, are indicating certain more significant

1 Anghel M.G. (2014) – Econometric Model Applied in the Analysis of the Correlation

between Some of the Macroeconomic Variables, Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Nr. 1


increases for the sections conveyance means (+4.8 percentage points), machinery, apparatus and electric equipments as well as for the section vegetal products, with 2 percentage points each; foodstuffs, beverage, tobacco with +0.,8 percentage points and decreases for ordinary metals and articles (-5.9 percentage points); mineral products (-3.7 percentage points); products of the chemical industry and connected industries (-1.3 percentage points). The other sections kept on maintaining a relatively constant weight.

As to the imports, increases of the weights have been recorded for chemical industry and connected industries products; machinery, electric apparatus and equipments; foodstuffs, beverage and tobacco (weights increases found out at the export too), to which weights increases in the import to be added concern the section textile materials (+1.4 percentage points); livestock (+1.1 percentage points). In exchange, the conveyance means record a drastic decrease of the weight (-6.7 percentage points).

From the point of view of the dynamics of the trade with the partner countries, to note for both import and export, the decreases recorded for almost all the cases, some of them quite significant2.

In the structure by countries, the biggest deficits have been recorded with Hungary, China, Kazakhstan, Austria, Germany, Russian Federation, contrary to 2008, when the hierarchy of the countries of the biggest deficits for Romania included Germany, Russian Federation, Kazakhstan, Austria and China.

However, to note the diminishing of the deficit with Germany, by about 37%, due to the increase of the cars export, which generated the transformation of the significant deficit in 2011.

Meantime, the deficit with the Russian Federation has been reduced as a result of the decrease recorded by the import of natural gas and crude oil from this country in 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012.

The deficit recorded with China increased as a consequence of the imports increases for telephone devices for the mobile telephony and other kind of networks, this country holding presently the second place within the hierarchy of the countries of the highest deficits for Romania.

To note also the decrease of the surplus recorded with Bulgaria as a result of the diminishing of the exports of mineral oil products to this country.

Positive sold have been recorded mainly with: Serbia, Norway, Republic of Moldova, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Lebanon, Georgia, Iraq, United Kingdom, Syrian Arab Republic. 2 Anghel, M.G. et. al. (2012) – “Production and Trade of Goods”, Revista Română de

Statistică – Supliment Trim II/2012


The biggest weight in 2012 is held by the textiles, the exports of textiles after active processing representing 37.5% of the total exports and about 61% of the total exports of textiles. The exports of clothing articles and accessories, other than the knitted or crocheted one, processed in lohn system are holding the biggest weight in the frame of the textiles group.

As regards the exports and the imports achieved by the EU member states during the period 2007-2013, there are at least three common characteristics to be stated out.

The first characteristic consists of the fact that the evolution of exports and imports recorded during 2012 as comparatively with 2011, leave apart some small exceptions such as Ireland, Malta, Finland and United Kingdom for exports, respectively Estonia, Ireland, Latvia and Malta for imports, has marked positive trends although, of course, differing from country to country.

The second characteristic is given by the fact that for both export and import, all the countries have recorded negative developments which, I'd say, evidenced a given particularity implied by an increased magnitude, close to 15 and almost 30%, even over this value in the import case, such as for instance, Romania, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, respectively Finland.

At last, the third characteristic is marked by the fact that the outrun of the exports decrease by the imports diminishing led implicitly to the decrease of the trade deficit3.

The evolution of the trade deficit of the EU member states is showing in a suggestive way a decrease of the deficit in 2012 for 16 countries including Romania as well, ordered at the left side of the demarcation line.

Thus, we are meeting two hypostasis: those countries which increased their trade deficit in 2012 as comparatively with the year 2009: Ireland, Belgium, Denmark, Czech Republic and Hungary and countries where the surplus recorded in 2009 is maintained in 2011 as well, although at a relatively lower level. This is the case of Germany, Holland, Sweden and Finland.

With a diminishing deficit of almost 14%, Romania is joining the countries having recorded the biggest deficit reductions.

Within the structure by countries, the largest deficits in 2012 have been recorded with Hungary, China, Kazakhstan, Germany, Austria, Russian Federation, contrary to the year 2010 when the hierarchy of the 3 Anghelache, C., Manole, A. (2012) - “Romania in the European Union – International Comparisons”, Romanian Statistical Review, Issue 6/2012


countries with which Romania recorded the biggest trade deficits included countries such as Germany, Russian Federation, Hungary, Kazakhstan, China and Austria.

The diminishing of the deficit with Germany is also noticeable, being due to the increase of the exports of cars and auto-vehicles for goods transportation.

Meantime, the deficit with the Russian Federation has been reduced, as a consequence of the diminished imports of gas and crude oil from this country in 2012 as against the year 2011. In fact, the total imports of gas and crude oil of Romania have been significantly reduced in 2011 and 2012.

The global economic crisis showed itself critically in the foreign trade field, each month in 2012 recording decreases of the Romanian export as comparatively with the corresponding months of the year 2009, which confirmed the tendencies occurring previously, starting with 2008.

The higher dynamics of the exports in comparison with the imports have generated a decrease of the trade deficit of Romania.

As the submitted statistics are showing, the exports dynamics in 2012 have overrun the imports dynamics.

The evolution of the number of exporters and importers during the period 2006 – 2012 is evidencing both the effect of the adhesion of Romania to the European Union, since January 2007 on, consisting of a significant increase of their number.

Evolution of the exporters and importers number during period 2006-

2013

21843 22000 21935 22005

68496 68935 68340 68174 68400

15962

21788 2464521933

61141 67506

80780

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Exporters

Importers

Data source: National Institute of Statistics, Statistical Bulletin no. 7/2013.


To note that out of about 22005 exporters, 745 exporters (recording annual exports of over 5 million euro) are covering almost 76% of the exports volume of the year 2013.

As to the importers, out of about 68340 importers, 1110 importers (recording annual imports of over 5 million euro) are covering almost 70% of the imports volume of the year 2013.

Taking into consideration the economic crisis effects on the Romania, on the basis of estimated data, I have analyzed the international commerce of goods and services for the first seven months of the year 2013 as well. The available data at this moment are indicating the fact that the export dynamics in 2011 is by one percentage point higher than the import dynamics.

The estimates for the first seven months of the year 2013 are showing that the exports of agro-alimentary products (including beverage and tobacco) have recorded an increase of about 4% while the imports have recorded a decrease of about 1.9%. Approximately 13% of the total commercial deficit of Romania during the first six months from 2013 is due to the foodstuff trade.

To note that the weight of the exports and imports of agro-alimentary products (including beverage and tobacco) in the total exports, respectively imports, has decreased during the first six months of 2013 by about 0.9% in the exports case and by about 2.0% in the case of imports.

The main commercial partners from the European Union for the exports of agro-alimentary products, beverage and tobacco are the following: Italy (2% of the total export of agro-alimentary products, beverage and tobacco), Bulgaria (11%), Hungary (8%), Greece, Germany, Spain and Holland (with 5% each).

Romania main partner countries for export in 2012

Data source: National Institute of Statistics.


The exits of agro-alimentary products towards the European Union

countries held a value weight of about 72% while the entries of agro-alimentary products from the European Union countries held a weight of over 25%.

In the case of the imports of agro-alimentary products imports4, beverage and tobacco the main commercial partners from the European Union are the following: Hungary (18% of the total imports of agro-alimentary products, beverage and tobacco), Germany (12%), Bulgaria (8%), Holland (7%), Italy and Poland (with 6% each).

When analyzing the structure by partner countries for Romania exports and imports, according to the situation being available at the level of 2012, it can be easily stated out that the biggest weights as for the export are held by: Germany, holding a weight of about 18.6% (the top of the products being exported to this country comprising plug sets for sparking plugs, wires, cables, conductors, auto parts and accessories, cars, ships); Italy (over 12.8%, foot-ware, cigarettes, phones, clothing, cars); France (7.5%, cars, auto parts and accessories, plug sets for sparking plugs, phones, cables, conductors, tires, bearings, furniture); Turkey (6.2%, raw iron residues, iron and steel, rolled plates, oil products, phones, cars, cars parts and accessories); Hungary (5.6%, wires, cables, conductors, oil products, tires, pumps, refined sun-flower oils, mobile phones devices, electronic components).

Romania main partner countries for import in 2012

Data source: National Institute of Statistics.

4 Anghel M.G.(2010) – Utilizarea modelelor econometrice în analizele economice, Simpozionul Ştiinţific Internaţional „Necesitatea reformei economico – sociale a României în contextul crizei globale”, Editura Artifex, Bucureşti


The biggest weight in the top of the partner countries to import is held, similar to the exports case, by: Germany with 17.1% (where from Romania is importing mainly cars, cars parts and accessories, drugs, wires, cables,) and Italy with 11.3% (leather, foot-ware parts, rolled plates, oil products, circuits), followed by Hungary, holding a weight of 8.7% of the total imports (drugs, wires, cables, mobile phone devices, electronic), France holding over 5.8% (auto-vehicles parts, drugs, turbojets, pumps, superchargers). But, in the case of the imports we have to notice the important partner countries from the extra-communitarian space, such as China (phones, accumulators and batteries, transformers, foot-ware, electric circuits), holding 4.6%.

References Anghel M.G.(2010) – Utilizarea modelelor econometrice în analizele

economice, Simpozionul Ştiinţific Internaţional „Necesitatea reformei economico – sociale a României în contextul crizei globale”, Editura Artifex, Bucureşti

Anghel, M.G. et. al. (2012) – “Production and Trade of Goods”, Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim II/2012


Anghelache, C-tin (2013). România 2013. Starea economică sub povara efectelor crizei, Editura Economică, Bucureşti

Anghelache, C-tin (2012). România 2012. Starea economică in criză perpetuă, Editura Economică, Bucureşti

Anghelache, C., Manole, A. (2012) - “Romania in the European Union – International Comparisons”, Romanian Statistical Review, Issue 6/2012

Pagliacci, Mario G.R. et al. (2013) – „Model For Macroeconomic - Analyse Based On The Regression Function”, Romanian Statistical Review, Volume (Year): 61 (2013), Issue (Month): 1 (February), pp. 18-30

Turdean, M.S., Prodan L., (2012) – „Statistică pentru afaceri” , Editura ProUniversitaria, Bucuresti, ISBN 978-606-647-312-5

Anuarul statistic al României, ediţiile 2002, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013

*** Buletinul Statistic nr. 1-12/2002, 1-12/2003, 1-12/2004, 1-12/2005, 1-12/2006, 1-12/2007, 1-12/2008, 1-12/2009, 1-12/2010, 1-12/2011, 1-12/2012 şi 1-12/2013 editat de Institutul Naţional de Statistică


Evolution of GDP: The case of RomaniaEvolution of GDP: The case of RomaniaEvolution of GDP: The case of RomaniaEvolution of GDP: The case of Romania

Adina-Mihaela DINU PhD. Student Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

Abstract The study examines the evolution of GDP in the period 2009 - 2012.

The results evidenced by the macroeconomic indicators show a disastrous trend in this period, as effect of the economic and financial crisis. When analyzing the data available for 2012, we have to consider as starting point the actual situation being recorded by our country during this year. Thus, for instance, the stocks variations recorded a lower contribution, while the net export, namely the difference between exports and imports, recorded a more reduced effect, following the reduction of the deficit of the foreign trade balance.

Key words: GDP; deficit; evolution; analysis; investment

1. The GDP evolution by categories of utilizations

From the point of view of the utilizations in the GDP forming during the year 2012, there have contributed: the stocks variation, the net export, the gross forming of fixed capital, the final collective consumption of the public administration, the final individual consumption of the households.

Under such circumstances, we find out that, from the point of view of the utilizations, the GDP formation has been achieved by the contribution of the following factors; gross forming of the fixed capital, final individual consumption of households with a decrease of -0.4%, which implies the following conclusions:

- From the point of view of utilizations, positive influences on the GDP achievement have been recorded by the final collective consumption of the public administration, stocks variation and net exports;

- Negative influences on the GDP forming have been recorded by the final individual consumption of households, and the gross forming of fixed capital.

The analysis of the influence factors of the GDP forming by categories of utilizations may be emphasized by the analysis of rhythm at which, the categories of utilizations considered for the GDP achievement


have influenced this achievement in 2013 comparatively with 2012. Thus, the individual consumption of households and the collective consumption of the public administration, together, have been reduced. A more marked decrease has been recorded by the net export. Another negative effect has been recorded by the rhythm of increasing of the gross forming of fixed capital.

The GDP evolution during 2013 follows line of going on the recovery road from the process of recession. During the first six months of the year 2013, the "un-accounted" negative effects of the year 2010-2013 have been taken over and then continued with a slight increase, maintained.

Thus, the GDP has not yet reached the level recorded in 2009; most of the branches recorded negative contributions, which implies the entrance into a macroeconomic managerial mess; the structure by branches and utilizations has been negative. In 2012, GDP grew by 1.1% as against 2011 and follows an oscillatory course in 2013, recording, during the first six months of the year an increase of 1.8% as against the same period of the previous year.

The survey on the economic evolution, considering the modifications of the GDP in the European Union countries, emphasizes the extremely critical situation existing on the European and, at a larger extent, international plan.

2. GDP evolution - seasonally adjusted series

As from the III quarter 2008, the seasonally adjusted Gross Domestic Product recorded a constant decrease from one to another quarter. The biggest decrease has been recorded during the 1st quarter 2009 as against the IV quarter 2008 (-4.1%).then, the GDP evolution, seasonally adjusted on the number of working days, constantly until 4th quarter, 2010.

The weight of the main categories of utilizations in GDP Indicator Year

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Actual individual consumption of the households

75.7 77.5 78.5 77.9 75.3 74.0 72.7 72.6 72.4 72.7

Actual collective consumption of the public administration

9.8 7.9 8.3 7.7 7.6 7.7 8.2 7.1 7.3 7.1

Capital gross forming

21.5 21.8 23.7 25.6 30.2 31.9 25.6 22.5 22.3 22.2

Stocks variations 0.6 1.8 -0.3 0.9 0.8 -0.6 -0.6 3.5 3.9 4.1

Net export -7.6 -9.0 -10.2 -12.1 -13.9 -13.0 -5.9 -5.7 -5.9 -5.7

Data source: National Institute of Statistics


When analyzing the quarterly evolution of the seasonally adjusted GDP during the year 2010 comparatively with the corresponding quarter of the previous year, it can be stated out that the biggest decrease has been recorded during the II quarter while the smallest one occurred during the fourth quarter. The same positive rhythm was also observed in 203 1. During Quarter IV, 2011 and Quarter I, 2012, GDP decreases were recorded again. During the third and fourth quarters of 2012, and also during the first and second trimesters of 2012, GDP increased in a slow rhythm1.

In connection with the other European Union member countries, Romania recorded for the IV quarter 2010 as against the previous quarter, an economic decrease while a significant number of countries have recorded increases (Belgium, Denmark, France, Lithuania, Austria, Poland, Slovenia, Great Britain), or recorded decreases below 0.5%. Meantime, the overall GDP of the EU increased by 0.1 %.

Comparatively with the IV quarter 2008, in 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012, the EU member countries have recorded reduced volumes of the GDP, the biggest ones being recorded Latvia (-17.9%) and Lithuania (-13.2%), followed by Romania (-6.9%), Slovenia (-5.8%) and Hungary (-5.3%). The overall decrease at the EU level counted for -2.3%. In 2009, it has maintained an accelerated decrease rhythm.

In 2010, fourth quarter and 2011, some recovery, but uncertain, due to the crisis within the Euro union. In 2012, the unconvincing evolution of GDP continues, and in 2013 the first signs that show the beginning of a growth have occurred, a growth that is to manifest in the following period too.

Significant contributions to the negative evolution of the GDP during 2010, 2011 and 2012 comparatively with 2009 are given by the constructions, which recorded a decrease as well as by the section trade, cars and households appliances repair, hotels and restaurants, transports and telecommunications recording a decrease.

The other branches have recorded small decreases of activity volumes.

The previously mentioned branches had the highest negative impact on the GDP volume decrease during the period 2009- 2012 comparatively to 2008, as they have recorded decreases.

As far as the utilization is concerned, the highest impact on the GDP decrease during the period 2009- 2012 comparatively with 2008, went to the gross forming of fix capital, the individual consumption of the population households, the collective consumption of the public administrations.

1 Anghelache, C., Manole, A. (2012) - “Romania in the European Union – International

Comparisons”, Romanian Statistical Review, Issue 6/2012


The increase of the exports of goods and services had a positive impact2.

According to the seasonally adjusted data, the gross forming of Fix capital had the biggest negative contribution. These reductions have been partially compensated by the increase of the volume of the exports of goods and services, and the collective consumption of the public administration.

GDP structure by categories of utilizations, in 2012

Indicator Romania

Gross Domestic Product 578551.9 Final consumption 441657.1 Gross forming of fix capital 166675.7 Export of goods and services 221841.1 Import of goods and services 251623.1 Net export of goods -29780.9

Data source: National Institute of Statistics

Based on a comparison between the GDP structure by categories of utilizations in Romania as against the EU, there is a superior weight of the gross forming of fix capital and a lower weight of the exports of goods and services in Romania comparatively with the European Union.

3. The achievement of the Gross Domestic Product by ownership

forms

Out of the performed analysis, it results that for the period 2009-2012, for which there are provisional data, the private sector contributed with 72.4%-75.4% to the GDP forming. The weight of the private sector, still low, has been generated mainly by the gross added value in the agriculture. Such an influence is a normal one if to consider that the agriculture has to face negative natural conditions.

If comparing the weight of the private sector in the GDP achievement with the Figures recorded for the previous periods, we find out that this weight is superior to all the periods being analyzed as from the year 2000, even as from the year 1990, up to date.

In 2010-2012, for which we are actually performing a complete analysis, we find that the weight of the private sector in the gross added value increased as for the constructions field.

2 Anghel, M.G. et. al. (2012) – “Production and Trade of Goods”, Revista Română de



What is really important is the fact that the weight of the private sector in the achievement of the gross added value by branches of the national economy and, eventually, to the GDP forming, kept on maintaining at a high level.

Gross Domestic Product weight of the private sector in 2004 – 2012

68,0 69,4 67,771,5 69,9 69,8 70,2

73,2 72,4 72,8 73,5 75,4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*2012**

- in % -

*1) Semi-final data. **) Estimate data.


It is obvious that the privatization of other administrations or extending the privatization at the level of branches already privatized will have the targeted effect.

Here we have to underline the fact that such an analysis is not always pertinent since there will be and remain sectors of activity absolutely important for the national economy for which the state must keep its attributes of sole owner3.

4. Direct foreign investments

The year 2012 was a year when a series of sectors of activity kept on getting privatized while those already privatized kept on increasing their patrimony (capitals) by attracting new autochthonous and foreign

3 Anghel, M.G. (2010) – “Utilizarea modelelor econometrice în analizele economice”,

Simpozionul ştiinţific internaţional „Necesitatea reformei economico – sociale a României în contextul crizei globale”, Editura Artifex, Bucureşti, 2010


investments which, from the point of view of the effects on the national economy structure is an important aspect to consider4.

Under the circumstances, according to the data provided by the NBR, it is resulting that in 2010 the total value of the direct foreign investment in Romania reached the level of 3,914 and for 2011, it had the value of 3,329,432.4 thousand euro, in 2012 it was 2,856,416.6 thousand euro and recorded a value of 1,066,398.4 thousand euro for the first seven months of 2013.

The value of the foreign direct investment flows

- million euro- Indicator 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*)

Total 9496 3488 2220 1920 1204 2315 Capital share 4873 1729 1824 1817 916 1805 Intra-group credits 4623 1759

396 594 288 510

Data source: National Bank of Romania *) Provisional data, on six months In the year 2010, 1,824 million euro of the direct foreign investment

has been placed in the sector of “participations to capital” and 396 million euro represented intra-group credits

The value of the foreign direct investment flows

– million euro-

5213

90617250

9496

2220 1920 12042315

4899*)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* 2011**2012***2013***

*) semi-definitive data, **) revised data, ***) provisional data, 30.06.2013 Data source: National Bank of Romania.

4 Anghel, M.G. et. al. (2012) – “Production and Trade of Goods”, Revista Română de



Meantime, by the end of 2010, the direct investment of the Romanian residents abroad counted for 1,675 million euro, this being the contribution evaluated by the documentary system available in the country.

The year 2012 reveals a situation hard to figure. The foreign direct investment counted for 1,240 million euro only. Out of this amount, 69.3% have represented capital shares and 30.7% intra-group credits.

The structure of the foreign capital flows invested in the Romania economy is shown in the following table.

Value of the foreign direct investment flow

in 2012 - million euro -

Indicator 2012 *)

Total 1204

Capital share 916

Re-invested profits 73

Intra-group credits 215 *) Provisional data. Data source: National Bank of Romania.

Acknowledgement:

This work was cofinanced from the European Social Fund through Sectoral

Operational Programme Human Resources Development 2007-2013, project

number POSDRU/159/1.5/S/I42115 performance and excellence in doctoral

and postdoctoral research in Romanian economics science domain".

References Anghel, M.G. et. al. (2012) – “Production and Trade of Goods”, Revista

Română de Statistică – Supliment Trim II/2012 Anghel, M.G. (2010) – “Utilizarea modelelor econometrice în analizele

economice”, Simpozionul ştiinţific internaţional „Necesitatea reformei economico – sociale a României în contextul crizei globale”, Editura Artifex, Bucureşti, 2010

Anghelache, C. (2012) – “Romania 2012. Starea economica in criza perpetua”, Editura Economica, Bucuresti

Anghelache, C., Manole, A. (2012) – “Correlation between GDP direct investments-An econometric approach”, Metalurgia International, Nr. 8/2012, pp. 96-98


Anghelache, C, Anghelache, G.V. (2012) – “GDP and the final consumption of Romania. Evolution and correlation in the last decades”, Metalurgia International, Nr. 8/2012, pp. 158-160

Anghelache, C., Cucu, V. (2012). “Model for the analysis of GDP”, Metalurgia International, Nr. 5/2012, pp. 182-185

Anghelache, C., Manole, A. (2012) - “Romania in the European Union – International Comparisons”, Romanian Statistical Review, Issue 6/2012

Andrei, E.A., Bugudui, E. (2011) – “Modelarea econometrica a seriei de timp GDP”, Theoretical and Applied Economics, Nr. 10/2011, pp. 91-98

*** Anuarul statistic al Romaniei, editiile 2002, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012

*** Statistical Bulletin no. 1-12/2002, 1-12/2003, 1-12/2004, 1-12/2005, 1-12/2006, 1-12/2007, 1-12/2008, 1-12/2009, 1-12/2010, 1-12/2011 and 1-12/2012, National Institute of Statistics, www.insse.ro


The Necessary EThe Necessary EThe Necessary EThe Necessary E----societal Management (Esocietal Management (Esocietal Management (Esocietal Management (E---- SM) SM) SM) SM) ApproachApproachApproachApproach

Nicolae COSTAKE

CMC, SRS, IEEE, AMCOR Abstract The present article follows up an analysis developed in previous papers, regarding the use of ICT by public institutions with well established aims. Societal management based on ICT and system engineering can provide the needed governance advanced technology. The article includes a description of the general context, a model for the SES of a country, and a short description of a possible e-sm information system. The author makes use of annexes in order to illustrate his statements.

Key words: ICT, society, economy, management, resources 1. Introduction 1.1 The present paper synthesises a presentation before the Onicescu Seminar in April, 2014 and complements former papers;.”e-Government”(eGov) means the use of f ICT by the public institutions in order to: ”:(i) minimise the bureaucracy generating administrative burdens for population and business and (ii) offering on-line acces. „e-SM”1 adds: (iii) shared use of ICT and of coherent informational resources of public institutions (which become interoperable); (iv) one-step acces to public information including also for the private sector; (v) increased governance performance of the socio-economic system (SES) through: improved quality of the decisions, including their higher proactive / reactive ratio, (vi) minimisation of the cost of informatisation and of the losses generated by the shadow economy (SE) including fiscal evasion and corruption due to societal mismanagement (SmM).=> feasible SM objectives can be: 1) economic growth; 2) jobs and social protection for all (children, disabled, sicks, old folk, unemployed & refusing training and/or offered jobs); 3) increasing civilization; 4) eradication of the SE; 5) protection for the future generations. 6) Complyance to science and technology trends.

The1 “e-SM” concept was proposed by Costake, N. and accepted in InformATion Science and echnology Encyclopedia, 2nd edition, vol1 1300-1309 IGI Herhey (USA)


1.2 SM based on ICT and system engineering can provide the needed governance advanced techology, (perhaps the last field in which the traditional one still prevails as the support to politicians) . 1.3 The paper’s logical flow is: (i) brief discussion on global and national contexts;(ii) a proposed high level (HL) model of SES such as a country; (iii) a hypothesis on human socio-economic behaviour; (iv) a HL model of the e-SM information system; (v) a first cost-benefit estimation for case study Romania (RO) (vi) a few final suggestions. The small available room imposed schematic descriptions and very few references.. 2. The general context 2.1 The global context (of Terra): includes: a) automatic cosmic and telluric cycles and events (C&Es) (e.g. received radiated solar energy diurnal and seasonal cycles); stochastic impacts of large cosmic objects; earthquaqes etc.); b) C&Es influenced also by human activities (e.g. some climatic changes due to uncontrolled de-forestations)as; c) C&Es generated by human activities (e.g. pollution; ozone layer’s holes, overconsumption of biologic natural resources’s (BNRs) regeneration capacity or exhaustion of non-biologic natural deposits) or drinkwater or clean air etc. (nBNRs); d) SmM e.g. (i) economic and financial crisis; (ii) SE losses; (iii) polarization of the population’s wealth distribution towards very poor and veryrich => socio-economic tensions; (iv) endemic economic, ethnic and/or religious tensions till armed fights. 2.2 The national context (RO) adds: a) missing SES’s mid and long range development strategy , hence no socio-economic synergy; b) high annual new legislation and frequent amendments => disturbing the business and justice environments; c) possible not specified roles, missions, responsibilities and key performance indicators (KPIs)for public institutions; d) many political managerial nominations (not competence); e) the press signals trends versus systemic corruption, f) the organisation of the public sector as a collection of islands without access to a coherent centralized database => .stimulating bureaucracy and quasy autonomous sectoral and territorial policies.even if some of the local activities imply national or international decisions. 2.3 Conclusions: both contexts suggest the need of e-SM, taking into account ee.g. a) the global dangers and risks: [1]; global global international studies [2]; international and national approaches [3],to [6] and academic approaches proposing new SM oriented needed decisions [7], [8], [9]., examples of SmM [10],[11].[12] .


3. A high level (HL) qualitative model of the country’s SES. 3.1 Annex A proposes a country SES model, capable to include macroeconomic and microeconomic aspects; based on five societal subsystems a) natural resources (SNR): i) non-biologic (land, submarine, underground); (ii) biologic ( a large variety of species, from monocellular to mammal animals, subject to automatic biological cycles and trofic chains) b) population (SSP): superior mammal beings:citizens or residents, families, households and dwellings.; their intelligence is the key factor for art, culture technical and technological progress (TTP);; they can grow whithout automatic limit hence great consumers =>key economic engines(EE). Their territorial communities are components of SSO c) operational (SSO): non-financial organizations (e.g. enterprises, NGOs ,commercial societies, exchanges, etc.) and financial organizations (banks, insurance organizations, currency conversion shops etc). They can be public or private or mixed ones. Their EE activities add economic-financial or social values d) societal management (SMS), including the following authorities:(i) executive:, assuring the current societal management:(1..symbolic person ( president or monarch; 2. government and its central, sectoral and territorial public institutions; 3. central bank depositing the SES’s financial reserves; producing or retiring the national currency; maintainig the inflation within admissible range; regulating the financial sector;;(ii) homeostatic: (1 legislative : defining in parliament the mandatory specifications for the organization and functioning of the SES; 2. judiciary: stating and punishing the deviations from law and clearing conflicts; (iii) societal informational feedback (1 official statistics; 2. electoral feedback’s information system (supports the participa-tive e-Democracy); 3. Court of accounts; 4 other authorized controlling public instituions (IPs); 5.internal and external information services; all complemented by 6 the free media in SSO; (iv) spiritual: community of authorized religions, representing the Divinity (as NGOs connected to SSP and to the executive authority) e) societal hidden economy (SHE) beyond law (toxic).generating mainly public financial and non-financial losses for SES 3.2 The above 5 subsystems (a)…e)) are interconnected and in same time connected to international SESs and organizations. The subsystems b) (except population) to e). are artefacts. Their functioning and evolutions depend on (i) the knowledge, activities, (ii) behaviours and other human


invariants and (iii) the automatic biologic, lluric and cosmic C&Es. The connections can be uni or bi-directional. and can be classified as:f) physical: 1 energy (radiated or embedded in transported substances or embedded in fluids (e.g. moving water or wind etc), or 2 materials (including goods i.e: products or services) or 3 information (including data and knowledge) or 4 human migration or man-months-qualifications (hired or working in organizations) or 5 financial means (cash or electronic money or financial titles) or 6 transactions (selling - buying or contracting etc.) or 6 public or private services paid (according to fees or free (financed by SMS from taxations). Notice: material flows can be stored in and extracted from reservoirs or deposits) g) logical: 1 parentage hierarchy; 2owner - property; 3owner -tenant; 4 employer-employed; 5 creditor-debtor ;; 6 location (geographic);7 territorial hierarchy etc. 3.3 Comments a) The SES’s subsystems may host processes such as:e.g. (i) automatic biological processes (perhaps genetically modified); (ii) physical and/or chemical; (iii) exploration; (iv) .collection; (v) transportation; (vi) processing (transformation) (vii) financial processes; (viii) commercial processes; (ix) informational and / or communications processes; (x) managerial processes ; (xi) defense and fight processes etc. b) A performant SM needs (i) a detailed model of the SES’s organisation and functioning; (ii) specification ; of the eSM’s objectives; (iii) the definition of the relevant invariants (one example in Annex B) (iv) system engineering based SES’s theory; (v) solid information system and legislative supports; and (vi) advanced governance software support. The classical management of organisations is not sufficient (see Annex C). 4. A short description of a possible e-sm information system In the advanced countries the adoption of e-Gov was an evolutive process; it is reasonable to believe that a similar approach will implement the eSM. In the less developed countries, because of the big losses of the traditional governance,, it is necessary to use a controlled faster implementation. The general architectural conception is suggested in Annexes D(an :”informational coherence kernel” (ICK), i.e the centralized coherent knowledge and databases, continously and automatically updated for supporting the governance software) and Annex (an e-SM information system platform). Following steps are envisaged: (i) strategic planning (ii) legislative approval of (iii) organizational structure (e-SM services and ICT inspection corpse of the prime-minister; (iv) in parallel 1 ICK’s design;::2


reengineering of prioritary information systems with embedded PKIs (e,g : (*). advanced legislation database and computer aided drafting new laws option;); (**). advanced judicial centralized case database for prosecutors and judges; (***) advanced public treasury information system for managing multi annual public budgets and tracing the flow of taxes and other public revenues and also tracing the flows of re-distribution etc.; 3 SES’s advanced theory ;(iv) stepwise implementation. Of course, meeting performance needs nomination in managerial positions in PIs conditioned by (i) competence (knowledge of the field and managerial experience) and (ii) management and leadership aptitudes (also general interest .> personal interest) evaluated using psycho-technical techniques.. 5. Preliminary example of a cost-benefit estimation. A preliminary cost -benefit estimation for Romania is presented in Annex F, It is based on exaggerating costs and minimizing benefits. The synthetic conclusion is: 1 EUR paid may generates a benefit of 2,5 EUR . 6. Final conclusions a) The global and national riks and issues need e-SM as now there is the “ICT-feasible”.[17] b) The great losses of the traditional Governance Technology can make eSM one of the largest political and ICT business.in the interest of the SES and its citizens.

(Very few) References

World Economic Forum: Global Risk Report 2013 http://www.weforum.org/issues/global-risks

GEO5, UNEP Global Environment Outlook 2012 http://www.unep.org/geo/geo5.asp Information Economy Report 2012 UNCTAD http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/ier2012_en.pdf Digital Agenda (2010) European Commission COM (2010) 744 final) -

annex 1) http://ec.europa.eu/digital-agenda EIF (2010) European Interoperability Framework . European Commission

COM (2010) 744 (final) Annex 2 2011) http://ec.europa.eu/isa/documents/isa_annex_ii_eif_en.pdf Obama, B, (2013): Memorandum for the heads of executive departments

and agencies on Transparency and Open Goverenment,


White House : http://www.hitehouse.gov/our-government/state-and-local-government

Johnson, I. & Jacobs, G. (2012): Crises and Opportunities: a Manifesto for Change Club of Rome (Retrieved October 2012)

,http://cadmusjournal.org/article/issue-5/crises-and-opportunities-manifesto-change

Stiglitz, J. (2012) :The price of Inequality: How Today’s Divided Society Endangers Our Future © by Joseph E. Stiglitz Translated by

Publica, Bucharest in 2013 (see 427 - 463) Greco, T Jr. (2009): The End of Money and the Future of Civilization © by

Thomaa H. Greco, Jr. Translated in Romanian by Curtea Veche Publishing, Bucharest, 2001 (26-29)

Anghelache, C. (2012) Romania 2012 .Starea economica in criza perpetua. Ed. Economica, Bucuresti

Fota, D. (2007) – “Cum se ruineaza o economie nationala”, Ed. Universitara Bucuresti,

Schneider, F. (2010) Shadow Economies and Corruption all over the World: new estimates for 145 countries Economics,.July 24th 1-4) http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/journalarticles/2007-9/version_1

EU Anti Corruption Report European Commission COM(2014) 38 final Maslow, A ,1954 The Hierarchy of Needs http://www.businessballs.com/maslow.htm Huitt, 2007): Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs

ttp://www.edpsycinteractive.org/topics/regsys/maslow.html Mc Gregor. D (1960) The human side of Enterprise

http://www.businessballs.com/mcgregor.htm Ouchi, W. (1981); How American Management can meet the Japanese

Challenge http://www.businessballs.com/mcgregor.htm Costake, N., Zahan, E. (2010) – “Management Consulting for IT

implementation in the Romanian’s Public Sector:Science? Art? Need for a new conceptual approach ” Svasta, M. (coord) © AMCOR (financed by EBRD and AMCOR)


ANNEX-A: THE HIGH LEVEL MODEL OF THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC

SYSTEM (SES) PI: Public Institution

ANNEX- B:. EXAMPLE OF A SOCIETAL MANAGEMENT INVARIANT: HUMAN ECONOMIC BEHAVIOUR


ANNEX C- A BRIEF COMPARISON BETWEEN THE ORGANIZATIONAL AND SOCIETAL MANAGEMENTS

ANNEX D - A HIGH LEVEL MODEL OF THE OF THE INFORMATION

COHERENCE KERNEL (ICK)’S ARHITECTURE

ANNEX-E-HIGH LEVEL MODEL OF AN ARHITECTURE OF THE e-SM INFORMATION SYSTEM PLATFORM

*) apart using the ICK, can administrate some ICK components,and may develop specific own databases, but using the metadata and the ICK knowledghe base **) responsibility of the supplying companies; ***) “help desk” The above described architecture (see also [18]) has in mind followings: (i) compatibility with the EU’s approach, solutions and documents UE; (ii) stepwise building of the National Interoperability System (NIS), according to the stepwise building of the ICK, in order to progress the reengineering of the public administration based on the progress of the ICK, every achieved objective being compatible with the future ones. (iii) it permits the parallel achievement of the prioritary objectives; . and (iv) permits the minimization of losses due to the Hidden Economy and also the minimization of the ICT costs e.g. by the increased proactive governance decisions against reactive ones. (v) assures a strategic solution by maximizing the (performance / cost ratio) at national level, recuperating investments, technical services costs and running costs (vi) the existing ICT resources in the public sector ICT can be adapted and connected to the above conceptual diagram.



Statistical Delimitation of the Profile of Local Statistical Delimitation of the Profile of Local Statistical Delimitation of the Profile of Local Statistical Delimitation of the Profile of Local Elections Candidate Elections Candidate Elections Candidate Elections Candidate –––– An ApplAn ApplAn ApplAn Applied Statistics ied Statistics ied Statistics ied Statistics

ResearchResearchResearchResearch

Assoc. professor Gheorghe SĂVOIU, PhD,

Assoc. professor Emil BURTESCU, PhD, Assist. Marian ŢAICU, PhD

University of Piteşti

Abstract This article devoted to the delimitation of candidate profile, by means of an

opinion survey representative of various categories of voters placed in the same area or locality, vitally depended on the perception of the people the questionnaire-based research was addressed to, on the categories of questions, solutions and interpretations that are most likely to be targets of the reader’s interest; they were presented in the kind of language that all of them are used to, thus aiming to maximize the utility and impact of the research through its usefulness, and anticipating its regular resuming, as well as a permanent adequacy of the form, and even the style of the paper. Key words: election statistics, sampling survey, sample rate, questionnaire, statistical profile, local candidate, voter perception. JEL Code: C40, C46, C52, R50, R58.

1. Introduction This article is dedicated to investigating and identifying public

perception concerning the delimitation of local election candidate profile (in the city of Piteşti), and especially to the capitalization of statistical thinking as a way to build a profile. The authors have used the statistical profile method before (Săvoiu, Manea and Simoni, 2008; Săvoiu, Čudanov, Vladu, 2012), a method proposed since 2008, obtaining interesting results in various fields, such as demography, economics, labor market, innovative educational management, etc. Last but not least, by training a team of students in the research, as interviewers, and later as staff for making the database, the objective was achieved of better practical integrating the discipline of statistics through applied research: and the secondary title of the paper reflects fully this aspect.


The concrete steps to achieving the research over one month (March 2014) were the ones described below: a) calculating the volume variants of the in relation to the accepted error margin of the survey and selecting the respondents distinctly by specific locations (districts): March 10 to 12; b) achieving the questionnaire in variants intended for the respondents (questionnaire for in-field interview): March 12 to 16; c) getting the agreement of the general partner of the research and publishing the survey questionnaire: March 17 to 19; d) collecting and recording the data in the questionnaire: March 20 to 26; e) data processing and obtaining the final indicators of the research (presented synthetically in the graphs as answers to questions): March 27 to 29; f) writing the final report and publication of the results: 30 to 31 March 2014.

The multiple goals of the research, which are described below, were achieved and validated through the agreeing of the final report by the general partner, without revisions or any other subsequent requirements.

2. Methodological aspects characteristic of the research and

originality of the questionnaire The main objective of the research was to delimit the local elections

candidate’s profile from the collection, recording and processing, subject to evaluation, of the views of voters in Piteşti. The general description of the research highlighted its key objectives, firt of all – determining the quotas for the following statistical variables: Table no. 1: Quotas or structural landmarks in the population of Piteşti

(share of the survey base)

Explanations Number % Gender Male 633 48,32

Female 677 51,68

Age 18-30 217 16,56

31-60 780 59,54

>60 313 23,89

Occupational status Employer 9 0,69

Employees 631 48,17


Explanations Number % Retired 428 32,67

Unemployed 50 3,82

Housewives 110 8,40

Students 82 6,26 Source: Data from the last census, and data updated in 2013

The procedure of detailing the voter population structure in order to

accurately determine the quotas led to the determination of several layers of voters according to the variables studied, which were recalculated in the amount of the sample at the level of overall research, and at team level per interviewer.

The data were collected using an original questionnaire, by the agency of 10 in-field interviewers, who used the direct method of investigation, "face to face" with the potential voters or the voting population (over 18 years) .

The steps of evaluating the size of the sample were the classic ones, as described in theoretical terms below: Box 1: The sample steps taken in order to conduct the research Step I set goals and resources needed for the research or project (detailing the goals, methods and a minimal budget outline related to the research). The intial time landmarks structured the research based on a survey, whose observation and data processing went on over only three weeks in March 2014. The spatial landmarks at the beginning of the research targeted the Piteşti area (only the city, detailing the districts as specific territorial structures). The financial landmarks or the survey’s opportuneness-to-cost requirements highlighted the need to limit the sample size to a restricted sampling of information (1310 in the end). Step II set up the use of the selective research results and the potential confidence level of parameter estimates. Step III delimited the total population over time (temporally defining the simple statistical units, i.e. the respondent, with respect to space (the geographical area of the districts in the city of Piteşti), organization (delimitation, through volunteering, of the mechanical step or pitch/pace), and even structurally (the Pareto internal delineation of the subpopulations by neighborhoods ). Step IV forced the team to check the homogeneity of the total population, which also induced the first technical effects: the homogeneous population required a simple random sample, and the heterogeneous population provided two alternatives, a stratified random under the constraint of simple units (respondents or inhabitants) or a random series survey urged by the complex units (identical blocks of flats in the old city).


Step VI identified the sample size, the sampling techniques (extraction) and the calculation procedures of the estimators, sample extraction and alignment (its sampling). Step VII accurately established the variables, the observation plan, the methods of data acquisition (directly by interviewer and investigator, who use, as a recording medium, a tested and piloted questionnaire) and the periodicity of the survey (resumption of such a survey in order to determine the impact of hierarchy, connected with the periodicality of local elections). Step VIII required training and preparing the staff able to ensure knowledge of the topic beforehand, knowing the reaction of the respondents, the need to improve the questionnaire (interview) via the pilot survey, the preliminary test and test interview. Step IX coincided with finishing the development of the forms, and printing them. Step X combined sample data collection and recording and the calculation of estimates at the level of the subpopulation extracted. Step XI chose the procedures of checking the significance of the estimators and the technique of inferentiating (expansion) of the sample results to the total population, the accuracy of which is determined by the threshold level of significance (parameter estimation). Step XII analyzed and interpreted data and made conclusions that were included in the final report of the research. Source: The steps were adapted to the concrete research from Săvoiu, G., (2012) , Statistică generală cu aplicaţii în contabilitate, Ed. Universitară / General statistics with applications in accounting, University Publishing House, Bucharest, pp. 132-133

The practical determination of the size of the sample that was taken was done both to assess the costs of research, and to organize data collection activities. First the limit (i.e. maximum allowable) error of representativeness was stated, the probability with which it is intended to derive the survey indicators, the level to which a given table value of argument z corresponds. Instead of the dispersion of the original population, the maximum and minimum values of the original population were capitalized for the simplicity of calculation, for an alternative or binary variable, and a maximum dispersion was obtained:

= = = (1)

(for an alternative or binary variable, the error was the maximum one, i.e. equal to 0.25).

The statistical determination is done for z = 2.18, and it identifies a sample volume of n1

n1 = = 1304,73 (2)


that is 1,305 people surveyed = 0.03

z = 2.18 = 0.25

N = 112,000 estimated people voting, in keeping with the total population data for the population of Piteşti, diminished with the population under 18 estimated.

This volume of the sample was an acceptable option for the final level of the research (maximum error 3% of general opinions). The final sample size was slightly increased, for practical considerations, to 1,310 final questionnaires needed (according to the calculation, where there were actually 1,305 investigable people, but in order to distribute perfectly equal and real shares, i.e. through integers from interviewers, the number was eventually rounded to 1,310).

Detailing the research method and sampling techniques has already been described, to which we need to add that, because we deal with opinions and delimiting a voter perceptions related profile of sampling, the sampling technique was based on quotas (observing the general structure of the population Piteşti).

In the selection of interviewees practice, the procedure was based on the mechanical pace, and, in the impact areas of public parks, libraries, convenience stores, supermarkets, cinemas, and ten interviewers covered all the districts in Piteşti.

The questionnaire was designed in an original manner, and included 11 questions, taken in-depth prior questioning of the residents and corrected with a set of requirements of the general partner, nine having a generally closed, and pre-coded, answer, respectively, and an open question (question 10).

In accordance with the range of topics related to an original electoral opinion barometer of the residents of the city of Piteşt, the following were pursued:

1-3. The general political and administrative, economic and social profile;

4. The particular profile, in keeping with the expectations; 5. Defining variables: gender, age, wealth, marital status, political

orientation, cultural level in the profile of the candidate;


6-7. The relation between Government and Argeş County Council and the realtion between Government and Piteşti City Council in the opinion of the voter,

8-9. Priorities of the parties and the nation in the voter’s perception; 10. The first step taken by a new political party or one of its

candidates on the political scene; 11. The hierarchy of the first 5 parties in the next elections. All these questions are detailed and illustrated in Annex 1 of the

article.

3.Results and discussion The profile is shown by the dominant answers to the questions I1-

I11, and are structured by gender, age group and employment status in the 60 pages of the research in a detailed manner. For this article the general questions and indicators were selected, unstructured and summarized in Table 2, by percentage, in a common questionnaire for the 1,310 respondents.

Table no. 2: Responses to the questions of the surbey, in percentages

1. What should a local elections candidate be like, as opposed to those before, in point of political and administrative policies? New în politics 12,1% 1. University graduate (and practice) 10,5% 4. Experienced in administrative matters 23,5% 2. A well-read individual, speaking for

everybody to understand 13,7% 5.

Belonging to the city (born, or living there)

8,7% 3. He/She does what he/she says 31,2% 6.

Other (details): 0,3% 7. _______________________________________________________________________________ 2. What should a local elections candidate be like, as opposed to those before, in point of economic status? Manager of a public institution 10,6% 1. No economic debts 11,1% 4. Businessman, who generated employment

40,2% 2. Achieved a project of local development 20,2% 5.

Owner of an income over the average

8,3% 3. Formulated a (coherent) local economic policy

9,5% 6.

Other (details): 0,1% 7. _______________________________________________________________________________ 3. What should a local elections candidate be like, as opposed to those before, in point of social status? Good parent in a traditional family 12,8% 1. Having had an official position 17,0% 4. Good neighbor 7,3% 2. Show respect for the social group they

belong to 31,0% 5.

Makes donations from own income 17,9% 3. Being respected by the social group they belong to

13,8% 6.

Other (details): 0,2% 7. 4. What are your major expectations from a candidate? Pursue the objectives of the electoral programme they were elected for

32,5% 1. Should not appear as defendant in a case of corruption during the four years of his / her mandate

10,5% 4.

Draw an annual activity report and make it public

15,3% 2. Attract major investments in infrastructure (e.g. Sibiu-Piteşti highway)

25,0% 5.


Be stable in their relations with the voters (communication unchanged for the worse)

10,8% 3. Should not gain weight during their mandate

5,5% 6.

Other (details): 0,4% 7. 5. Candidate profile GENDER / SEX MARITAL STATUS

Male 73% Female 27% Married 78,8%Single 21,2%

Age POLITICAL ORIENTATION

Middle-aged 61,7%Young 38,3%Left 53,1%Right 46,9%

WEALTH CULTURE

Rich 49,3%Average income 50,7%Cultivated 74,4%Average citizen 25,6%

6. Relation between Government and Argeş County Council. What must prevail in the decisions of the candidate you voted for? The opinion of the Government 43,9% 1. The opinion of the Councty

Council 56,1% 2.

7. Relation between Government and Piteşti local Council. What must prevail in the decisions of the candidate you voted for? The opinion of the Government 38,5% 1. The opinion of the local Council 61,5% 2. 8. In a party’s polities, the first place should be held by one of the following priorities: Jobs created in the public / private sector. 23,4% 1. Education and health 20,1% 4. Investment and attracting investors 16,2% 2. Salaries / other incomes 17,3% 5. Pensions / aids 19,2% 3. Production of goods and services 3,7% 6. Other (details): 0,1% 9. Romania’s main problems in the current period are related to: Corruption 30,4% 1. Political conflicts 14,1% 4. Generation gap 4,1% 2. Revenue low or no income 38,3% 5. Disruption of family cohesiveness 3,4% 3. Scarce or no foreign investment 9,6% 6. Other (details): 0,1% 7. 10. According to your expectations, which should be the first step a newly appeared party takes? For this question special explanations are detailed in Box no. 2 11. If elections were held tomorrow, what would be the order of the first five parties?

PSD (59,6%)

Ranking 1

PMP (4,7%)

Ranking 5

PNL (19,7%)

Ranking 2

PPDD (5,9%)

Ranking 4

PDL (9,8%) Ranking 3

Other (0,4%)

Ranking

As a general feature, the remarkable accuracy of the research is especially visible: the final figures for question 11 are very close to those expected, e.g. the first party described in the research as having pro opinions of 59.68% of the voters, finally picked 60%, which translates as a very small error (close to the 5% margin) for a debut research, not yet calibrated with a completely new questionnaire and very young staff, entirely conducted in a single month. For I10 a special box was built for the interpretation and aggregation of the results from this question, the only open one.


Explanations of the homogenization and aggregation of responses to the

open question no. 10 Box. 2 The four main aggregations of the interviewees’ responses to the open question I10, which required identification (specification) of the first steps of a new party entering the political arena or the new party’s candidate, are described below: a) social measures of siginificant impact on social welfare (increase pensions, salaries, allowances and other incomes): 406 responses; b) steps meant to ensure economic development and solve the serious economic imbalances: creating jobs (317 responses), and attracting and making investment (233 responses); c) measures against corruption (80 responses) d) measures meant to reduce taxes (28 replies) Note: The diversity of the 246 remaining responses allowed no other substantial aggregations (measures for health and education occur sporadically among the other measures, but they could not be reunited as significant solutions representing at least 2% of the opinions), and they all were brought together under the heading “other measures”. Source: The data from the 1310 open to question I10 questionnaires were processed by the authors.

With no other similar researches, no confrontations or comparisons with the electoral research in Piteşti in the same field can be conducted; the adequacy and completeness of the sampling base speak for themselves about the originality of the research, and, together with the overall accuracy they lend it special efficiency, and of course, its pioneering character.

4.Conclusions The simplicity of the final results brings about specific research

findings, which thus become a piece of evidence of the same intrinsic originality of the methodology, and also the practical approach, while the interpretation of results is quite easy, and the synthesis of paper is the substitute of the 60-page section of structural graphs, or of columns that functioned as visual support for the final logical findings. The research is currently static (the moment is a “zero” one), but it can be applied regularly, thus identifying continuities or discontinuities of quality perception of local candidates, upward or downward trends, changes in general or partial hierarchy, with emphasis on the obviousness of certain aspects, their


applicability, and the final recommendations. Resuming it is recommended at intervals not exceeding the duration of an electoral cycle (i.e. four years), or even more frequently, when changes or government reshuffle occur. Time adequation remains the royal way of research, and translates into choosing the most suitable repetition intervals and the most relevant space or time of analysis. References Porojan, D., (1993), Statistica şi teoria sondajului, Ed. Şansa SRL,

Bucureşti. Săvoiu, G. (2004), Statistică aplicată în domeniul economic şi social, Ed.

Independenţa Economicǎ, Piteşti. Săvoiu, G., coord. (2005). Cercetări şi modelări de marketing. Metode

cantitative în cercetarea pieţei Ed. Universitară, Bucureşti, 2005. Săvoiu, G., (2011), Statistica pentru afaceri, Ed. Universitară Bucureşti. Săvoiu, G., (2010), Gândirea statistică aplicată, Ed. Universitară,

Bucureşti. Săvoiu, G., Čudanov, M., Vladu, M., (2012). Profile Method - An Example

of Multidisciplinary Applied Method, Econophysics, Sociophysics & Other Multidisciplinary Sciences Journal (ESMSJ), Vol. 2(2): 36-44.

Săvoiu G., (2008), The Scientific Way of Thinking in Statistics, Statistical Physics and Quantum Mechanics, Romanian Statistical Review, no 11/ 2008, S XIII pp. 1- 10.

Săvoiu, G., Manea C., and Simoni, S., (2008). The Demographic, Sociological and Geographical Profile. The Role of the Profile Method in Contemporary Management, Proceedings of The 14th international conference the Knowledge-Based Organization, Military Sciences Security And Defence, Conference, 2008, Sibiu, Nicolae Bălcescu Academy Publishing House, Sibiu, 2008, pages 185-199.


The model of W.F. Sharpe and the model of the The model of W.F. Sharpe and the model of the The model of W.F. Sharpe and the model of the The model of W.F. Sharpe and the model of the global regression global regression global regression global regression utilized for the portfolio selectionutilized for the portfolio selectionutilized for the portfolio selectionutilized for the portfolio selection


„Artifex” University of Bucharest Lecturer M ădălina Gabriela ANGHEL PhD.

“ Artifex” University of Bucharest Abstract This method is to be found out in the economic theory as beta method. This method is largely utilized for studying the risk of equities. In the frame of this method, the risk is identified through the fluctuation of their yield. Thus, the higher the fluctuation degree of the portfolio yield is, its risk is higher. We shall note by Rt the total yield of an equity at a given moment, and by ∆i t the fluctuation of the index from one period to another. This is an element of the Sharpe regression model. Key words: regression, portfolio, equity, cloud, risk management

In order to make the choice of the regression function, the points (Rt,

∆i t) for all the periods t are graphically represented, in the Cartesian of axis, the points (Rt, ∆i t) for all the periods t. A points cloud is thus generated which stands at the basis of forming the dependence between the two variables. If these points aligned along a line, then the dependence between the two variables is a linear one: Rt = α + β∆i t+ εt (1) where:

- the parameter α is quantifying the component of the total yield of the independent equity as against the fluctuation of the index of the exogenous characteristic from the regression linear model;

- the parameter β is fixing the extent to which the alteration by one per cent of the index of the exogenous characteristic is generating the increase or the decrease of the equity yield;


- εt is representing the residual variable of the regression linear model, which quantifies the alleatory fluctuation of the equity yield under the influence of factors other than the recorded one.

- Through the intermediary of this model, the factors acting on the equities yield are divided into two classes:

- Macroeconomic factors, acting to a larger or a smaller extent on all the equities: the inflation rate of the economy, the performance indicators of the economic environment or financial markets etc. Out of these factors, the choice goes to that one depending on which we want to define the regression linear model;

- Microeconomic factors, acting on the yield of an equity or group of equities. These factors are quantified in the frame of the model through the residual variable.

In order to estimate the two parameters of the regression line, the method of the least squares is resorted to. For defining the estimators, we have to keep in mind that the residual variable (εt) is satisfying the following hypotheses1:

- each residual has a null mathematical expectation so that E(εt) = 0;

- the variables ε’ t şi εt are not correlated since the hypothesis of non-correlation for the specific risks of the equities, taken two by two, is admitted;

- the residual variables are normally distributed:

=∀∈ mtNt ,1)(),,0( εσε .

Following the application of the least squares method, an estimator of the volatility coefficient (β) is established through the relation:

∆∆

∆

=∆

=σσρ

σβ t

tt iR2

),cov(ˆ (2)

where: - ∆tρ is the linear coefficient of correlation calculated in order to measure

the linear dependence between the equity yield and the market index: - tσ represents the standard deviation calculated in the case of the equity

yield;

1 Anghel M.G. (2014) – Econometric Model Applied in the Analysis of the Correlation

between Some of the Macroeconomic Variables, Revista Română de Statistică – Supliment Nr. 1


- ∆σ is the standard deviation of the financial market index; Depending on the value of the parameter β, the following types of

equities are identified2: - if β < 0, then the equity yield is developing differently as against

the general tendency of the financial market; - in the situation of )1,0(∈β , then the equity has a low volatility.

In this case, the variation of the equity yield is lower as against the changes of market index from one period to another. Thus, an example of equity of low volatility is given by the case when the market index changes by 8% in the conditions of a variation of the equity yield of 5% only;

- in case that β = 1 the equity is neutral. For a neutral equity the yield changes to the same extent as the financial market index. For instance, if the index of the financial market is recording a fluctuation of 2% then the equity yield will record the same increase;

- if β > 1, then the equities bear a high volatility. The equities of this class have a high sensitivity to the overall fluctuations of the financial market. These equities are of an increased interest for the speculators on the financial markets. In this case, the equity risk is extremely high. For instance, for a fluctuation of 3% of the market price, a fluctuation of the yield higher than 3% is recorded for the equities of this class.

- In the financial practice, the outcomes given by this method are regarded with certain reluctance since, while the parameter β is calculated on the basis of a data series from the past, the risk refers to a period in the future.

This method is substantiated on the hypothesis that the yield of equity is fluctuating as against the global yield of the market where it is transacted or as against the overall performances of the economic environment. Thus, if the dependence is of a linear type, then the equation of regression is the following:

njiRPR ijjiij ,1, =++= εβα (3)

where:

2 Anghel, M.G. (2010) – “Utilizarea modelelor econometrice în analizele economice”,

Simpozionul ştiinţific internaţional „Necesitatea reformei economico – sociale a României în contextul crizei globale”, Editura Artifex, Bucureşti


- RPj is representing the global yield of the market at a given moment;

- αi, βi are the parameters of the regression model being defined by the equity Ai; The parameter βi, the slope of the regression line, is measuring to what extent the fluctuations recorded by the financial market are felt at the level of the equity Ai.

For each equity, the residual variable which quantifies the fluctuations of the yield of the equity Ai under the influence of factors other than the changes of the global yield of the market is satisfying the following hypothesis: - all the alleatory variables ijε are variables having the mean equal to zero.

E( ijε )= 0 for all the indices j;

- the residual variables interfering in the definition of the regression linear model bear the property of being homoscedastic. Thus, 2)var( iij εσε = for any

index j; - the residual variables of the regression linear model are linearly independent. In this situation, 0),cov( =ikij εε for any j≠k. We shall say that

the specific risks of doesn’t matter which two equities are non-correlated; - any one of the residual variables is not correlated with the global yield of the market: 0),cov( =RPijε for any index j.

For the regression model defined for certain equity of the portfolio there are a series of properties being established. These are useful for the interpretation of the outcomes For any and each equity of a portfolio, the following equality is defined:

)()( RPERE iii βα += (4) This property shows that, for any and each equity, the regression line is passing through the weight centre of the points cloud. This is in fact a universally valid property for any regression linear model.

- The dispersion of any equity is decomposed in two components, the one due to the systematic factor, on one hand, and the one due to the alleatory factors, on the other hand.

By applying the dispersion operator to the terms of the equality above, we get the following result:

[ ]222

222 )()()()var(

ipi

ijijjiijiii RPRPERRER

εσσβ

εεβσ

+=

−+−=−==

(5)


The last term of the above relation is emphasizing the fact that the total risk of equity is decomposed in two components: the one due to the systematic risk, on one hand, and the other one due to risk arising from the alleatory changes, on the other hand.

Under the circumstances, the following equality is written: 2222ipii εσσβσ += (6)

The total risk = the systematic risk + the accidental risk - The covariance of the yields of two some equities from a

portfolio is a category directly influenced by two factors: the coefficients of the regression linear models which are defined for two equities and the dispersion of the total yield of the market. The covariance of the equities from a portfolio is calculated through the following relation:

22tpkkp σββσ = (7)

In order to get the relation (7) we have to take into account the formula for the covariance calculation, the form of the regression linear model and the hypotheses formulated on the residual variable. Under these conditions the following outcomes are successively obtained:

2,

2,

2,

2

2

2

)])([()])(([

)])(([])([

)])([(),cov(

pkRPkpRPpkppk

kkjppjjkkjp

ppjjkjpk

ppjkkjkpk

ERPRPE

RPRPERTRTE

RRRRERpR

εεεε σσβσβσββ

εεεεεεβ

εεβββ

σ

+++=

−−+−−

+−−+−=

−−==

According to the hypotheses formulated before, it is resulting that: 022

,2

, === pkRPpRPk εεε σσσε

By replacing these results by the covariance formula we get the relation (7). For each regression line (4) the parameters ii βα , are estimated through the least squares method, taking into account the series of the equities yields and of the financial market recorded over a passed period. Further on3, we shall set out the calculation relations existing between the parameters of the regression model for each equity, defined depending on the characteristic of the financial market or of the economic environment and the parameters of the regression models defined for a

3 Manole, A. et. al. (2013) – “Conditional Probability and Econometric Models”, Romanian

Statistical Review Supplement., Issue 1/2013


portfolio. Let’s consider the equities from the portfolio structure as being A1,…,Am.

- For the average yield of the portfolio characterized through the vector of the structure f we define the relation:

)()( RPERTE TT βα +=

where ∑∑==

==n

iiiT

n

iiiT ff

11

, ββαα .

This equality is deducted without difficulty if considering the relation (7) and the portfolio structure. Taking into consideration the two elements, for any equity of the portfolio we obtain: )()( RPEffREf iiiiii βα += . These relations are added for all the equities4. Then, out of the calculation formula of the arithmetic mean, we get the above relation.

- The total risk of the portfolio, measured by the yield dispersion over a time horizon is made up of the systemic risk, to which the alleatory risk which acting at the level of the financial market, is to be added.

Taking into account the relation for the calculation of the portfolio risk and the relations (6) and (7) the following results are obtained:

∑

∑∑∑∑∑

∑∑ ∑ ∑

=

==== =

>==

>= =

+=

+

=+=

+=+=

m

iiiTT

jT

m

ii

m

iii

m

iii

m

i

m

jTjiji

m

jiji

Tjiji

n

iji

ji

m

iiipijjiiiT

f

jfffff

fffifff

1

2222

2

111

22

1 1

2

1,

2

1 1, 1

222222 )(2

ε

ε

ε

σσβ

βσββσσββ

σββσσβσσσ

.

The portfolio risk is decomposed into the two components according to the following equality:

∑=

+=m

iiiTTT f

1

22222εσσβσ (8)

Total risk =systematic risk + alleatory risk

4 Anghelache, C., Anghel, M.G., Manole, A., Dincă (Nicola), Z. (2014) – „The Regression

Model used to Analyze the Correlation between Production and Labor”, Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2014


In order to establish an optimum portfolio in the situation when a certain level of the yield is specified, the following optimizing problem has to be solved:

=

=

=

∑

∑

∑

=

=

1

)()(

,...,

)[min](

1

1

1

2

i

m

iiiP

m

iii

m

T

f

f

REfRTE

ff

ββ

σ

(9)

Through the intermediary of the global regression, the number of the operations involved by the calculation of the global yield and the total risk is getting significantly reduced.

References

Anghel, M.G. (2013) – Modele de gestiune şi analiză a portofoliilor, Editura Economică, Bucureşti


Anghel, M.G. (2010) – “Utilizarea modelelor econometrice în analizele economice”, Simpozionul ştiinţific internaţional „Necesitatea reformei economico – sociale a României în contextul crizei globale”, Editura Artifex, Bucureşti

Anghelache, C.; Anghel, M.G. (2014) – Modelare economică. Concepte, teorie şi studii ce caz, Editura Economică, Bucureşti

Anghelache, C., Anghel, M.G., Manole, A., Dincă (Nicola), Z. (2014) – „The Regression Model used to Analyze the Correlation between Production and Labor”, Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment nr. 1/2014

Anghelache, G. (2009) – Piaţa de capital în context european, Editura Economică, Bucureşti, 2009, ISBN – 978-973-709-475-9

Armeanu, D. (2008) – Rentabilitatea şi riscul portofoliului format din două titluri , Revista Română de Statistică - Supliment „România şi economia europeană”, pp. 157-164, ISSN 1018 – 046x CNCSIS Categoria B+


Manole, A. et. al. (2013) – “Conditional Probability and Econometric Models”, Romanian Statistical Review Supplement., Issue 1/2013

Sharpe, W. (1963) – “A Simplified Model of Portofolio Analysis”, Management Sciences

Sharpe, W. (1963) – “Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium under Conditions of Risk”, Management Sciences Journal

Vintil ă, G. (2010) – Gestiunea financiară a întreprinderii, Editura Didactică şi Pedagogică, Bucureşti

www.bvb.ro (Bursa de Valori Bucureşti) www.kmarket.ro


Developments in Accounting for Environmental Developments in Accounting for Environmental Developments in Accounting for Environmental Developments in Accounting for Environmental ExpenditureExpenditureExpenditureExpenditure

Constantin MINDRICELU, PhD. National Institute of Statistics

Abstract In order to build a sustainable economic society with a low

environmental impact, the private sector and the general government must identify and implement active or voluntary tools capable of influencing the carrying out of the socio-economic activities as to ensure their sustainability. Highlighting the economic phenomena and manner of operation of their in economics is achieved by high synthesis indicators produced by national accounting. Responding to these demands, the UN Statistics Division, together with Eurostat and national statistical offices have initiated a diversification of statistical tools for creating of the indicators which extend the statistics beyond the GDP . An explicit requirement to address environmental economic accounts at European level is expressed by the European statistical program developed and monitored by Eurostat. Within this legal framework program was created to collect data on environmental accounts by Regulation no. 691 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 6 July 2011 on European environmental economic accounts and updated by Regulation no. 538/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of April 2014. In this category of accounts includes environmental expenditure account (EPEA), focusing, in particular, highlighting what is and how environmental activities are carried out. This article presents experimental estimates of environmental protection expenditure in Romania from 2008 to 2011. In the first part of the article presents several conceptual issues of satellite account of environmental expenditures, respective: objectives and options that responds account of environmental expenditures, classification of environmental activities and classification of the units engaged in these activities. It also shows the EPEA model for Romania.


In the second part of the article presents several examples of applications the EPEA at European and national level

Key words: environmental accountancy approach, national environmental accountancy, satellite accounts of environment protection, environmental activities, production of the service environment, national expenditure for environmental protection, financing environmental expenditures 1. Introduction Highlighting the economic phenomena and manner of operation of their in economics is achieved by high synthesis indicators produced by national accounting. One such indicator is the Gross Domestic Product, which measures the flow of goods and services in the economy and is often cited as a measure of economic well-being of our society. However, many aspects of welfare can not be quantified only with GDP and although there is a correlation between GDP and the welfare, this indicator as actual form can not express the real content of welfare, which besides the link with the economic growth has multi-link with the consumption of the state of environment, etc. It is a reality, the need to improve data and indicators to complement GDP to express progress in all directions that contribute to welfare (the healthy, environmental protection, production and consumption patterns, etc.). Briefly, an accounting framework is required which integrate environmental issues with economic ones. This issue was on the bench of the High Level Conference "Beyond GDP", organized by the European Commission (together with the European Parliament, the Club of Rome UNECE and OECD), in November 2007. Conference held some directions for building statistical tools necessary to achieve integrated indicators "economy-environment" also manifested strong support from policy makers, experts and civil society to implement them. Responding to these demands, the UN Statistics Division, together with Eurostat and national statistical offices have initiated a diversification of statistical tools for creating of the indicators which extend the statistics beyond the GDP . These initiatives can be mentioned: - extending National Accounts to environmental issues (ex. environmental -economics accounts, satellite accounts, etc.);


- development of indicators (ex. the structural indicators, the sustainability indicators, decoupling indicators), reflecting the new political and technical context; - construction of composite indicators on the environment, quality of life and the welfare (ex. the sustainable development index, the human development index, the ecological footprint ); Currently there are several statistical offices and international organizations that engender the information in this area, but there is a lack of integration of statistics showing an interrelation with the development environment and social status.Within these concerns there are several proposals to change the system of national accounts (SNA) so as to take account of environmental factors. The proposals are intended primarily to adjustment operations, flows and stocks of SNA to include environmental elements. The most significant example of these concerns is the system integrated environmental-economic accounting (SEEA - System of Integrated Environmental and Economic Accounting) developed by the United Nations Statistics Division. An explicit requirement to address environmental economic accounts at European level is expressed by the European statistical program developed and monitored by Eurostat. Within this legal framework program was created to collect data on environmental accounts by Regulation no. 691 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 6 July 2011 on European environmental economic accounts and updated by Regulation no. 538/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of April 2014. Regulation establishes a common framework for the collection, compilation, transmission and evaluation of environmental economic data in order to create satellite accounts to national accounts, providing methodology, common standards, definitions, classifications and accounting rules and statistics to be used to compile these accounts. Top of Form According to the regulation in the first stage (2014 - 2016) will be implemented:

- air emissions accounts; - account of environmental taxes; - material flow accounts of the economic scale. For the second stage, after 2016 is under implementation other three

accounts: - account for environmental expenditure;


- account of environmental goods and services sector (environmental industry ); - energy flows account;

2. Satellite account of environmental expenditures 2.1 Objectives and options that responds account of environmental expenditures An important component of integrated accounting "economy-environment" is the record of transactions concerning environmental protection economic units in monetary terms. In this category of transactions include: expenditure for environmental preservation and environmental protection, environmental taxes, subsidies and rents for the extraction of natural resources, production of goods and environmental services. Many of the transactions and flows of economic activities related to environmental concern are recorded in the national accounts, but some of them can not be identified due to the structure of accounts and types of classifications they use. For the latter constructed environmental economic accounts as satellite accounts to national accounts. In this category of accounts includes environmental expenditure account (EPEA), focusing, in particular, highlighting what is and how environmental activities are carried out, allowing answers to the following questions:

- what are the costs of activities of environmental protection? - by whom and how they made this activity? - who really bears the financial consequences?

All features related to the organization of data in developing EPEA lead to the idea that such an account can be viewed as a complement to the central framework of national accounts, following the precepts of the description of the function of satellite accounts 'environmental protection' in a manner which takes account of national accounts conventions.

EPEA contains a set of four interrelated tables that describe: - production of the service environment and the way in which they

are produced (Table B) - national expenditure for environmental protection: to use

(consumer) services, related products and products adapted to gross capital formation (investment) and other transactions related to environmental protection (transfers) (Table A)

- table built on the supply / use of environmental services (Table B1)


- financing environmental expenditures (Table C) 2.2 Environmental activities, environmental services and producers Characterization of environmental actions requires, on the one hand, highlighting the activities of economic agents, leading to the elimination of pollution, means that they performed these activities, and the effort made in this direction, on the other hand used more natural resources efficiently. Environmental activities are those activities whose primary purpose is to prevent, reduce and eliminate pollution and other forms of environmental degradation. Delimitation of environmental activities is based on the elements of the environment, nature or consequences of pollution they generate and techniques used.

Combining types of activities can obtain a formal framework for classification:

a) activities to prevent and combat the impact of production and consumption systems, which by their nature to limit the adverse effects of economic activities which, in turn, can be divided as follows:

- water protection -includes all activities and measures taken to prevent pollution of surface water, collection and treatment of wastewater, including monitoring. - air protection - these specific activities consist of measures fated at reducing production and reducing pollutant emissions and concentrations of pollutants in the atmosphere. - waste management - refers to any activity whose purpose is the collection, transport, recovery, treatment and disposal. - protection of soil and groundwater - is defined as an activity involving environmental operation and maintenance of facilities for the decontamination of polluted soil and groundwater clean. - reducing noise and vibration - refers to any activity undertaken for reduce noise and vibration in order to protect people and buildings. - protection of biodiversity - include: conservation of fauna and flora, preventing natural ecological accident (maintaining natural factors), land protected natural areas, actions to restore landscapes, protecting and restoring natural sites. - other activities, such as: research – development, general environmental management, training.


b) resource management activities aimed at preserving and maintaining stocks of natural resources.

In turn these activities include: mineral and energy resource management , the reduction of extraction of natural resources (including the recovery, reuse, recycling and substitution of natural resources) and recovery of natural resources, management of forest resources, management of aquatic resources, water management , research and development for natural resource management , other resources management activities (ex. monitoring, control and surveillance). Based on the definitions of environmental activities can define environmental goods and services, which include the specific services as a result of the activities of environmental protection, related products and products adapted. Environmental services are a result of specific environmental activities, executed as activities: primary, secondary or auxiliary by operators or units of government. By definition, specific environmental activities produce only specific services. However, there are economic activities that can generate production of goods whose use serves the goals of environmental protection, although not specific activities. These can be used for final consumption or intermediate or gross capital formation. Such products are called related products (ex. catalytic converters for air protection, septic tanks, biological products for septic tanks to reduce soil pollution, bags, bins, waste containers, enclosures to reduce noise). Besides the related products are adapted products. These, though not the result of specific activities through their consumption less pollution occurs before the equivalent products (ex. Desulfurization fuel, unleaded gasoline, etc.). 2.3 Classification of the units involved in environmental activities Establishments producing environmental services are the businesses that have been engaged in environmental protection as a main activity or as a secondary activity to the main economic activity other than the environment. Also, establishments and units are considered performing an economic activity primary or secondary pollutant and therefore must conduct an internal work environment necessary to limit the negative effects of their own economic activities. Typology of classifications is done by borrowing from national accounts, as follows:


- Government sector: includes all institutional units which produce non-market services environment, for community or subsidizing them. Government sector is divided into two subsectors: the central government comprises state administration bodies and central bodies whose powers are extended throughout the country and local government comprising all government units whose powers to local administrative levels. - Productive sector ("Company") comprises institutional units that produce environmental services, grouped as follows: specialized producers representing those units which have as main activity object of environmental protection and are included in NACE Rev. 2 divisions: 37 "collection and wastewater treatment", 38 "Collection, treatment and disposal, 39 "decontamination activities and services" and non-specialized producers representing those units whose main activities other than the environment, but are obliged to perform a secondary or auxiliary activities of environmental protection to prevent possible harm to the environment. These units can be found in CAEN Rev.2: 02 "Forestry and logging" , 05-09 "extractive industry", 10-33 "manufacturing" 35 "production, supply of electricity and heat , gas, steam and air conditioning ", 36" abstraction,purification and distribution of water", 41-43" Construction " and 49-51" Shipping. - Household sector includes those environmental activities conducted on their own population is mainly reflected in final consumption.

2.4. Construction of the Romanian EPEA

EPEA has a set of four tables describing interrelated: - production of the service environment, and how they are produced (Table B) - national expenditure for environmental protection: to use (consumer) services, related products and products adapted to gross capital formation (investment) and other transactions related to environmental protection (transfers) (Table A) - table built on the supply / use of environmental services (Table B1) - financing environmental expenditures (Table C)


Table 1 - The set of EPEA tables

Table A Uses

(expenditure)

Table B Production

Table B1 Supply-use

Table C Financing of expenditure

Uses of EP services by resident units

Output of EP services

From output to uses: introduction of imports/ exports and taxes/subsidies on production

Financing of: -uses of EP services -Gross capital plus land acquisition -uses of adapted &connected products -specific transfers

Uses of adapted & connected products

Gross capital formation plus land acquisition

Gross capital formation plus land acquisition

Specific transfers Source :Eurostat 2002

Table B Production of EP services

Table B describes the production of EP services by domestic producers. Different categories of producers and output may be distinguished. The two main categories are:

• Specialized producers (with corresponding market and non-market output),

• Non-specialized producers (with corresponding secondary and ancillary outputs). For the government we established separate production tables for each level of government. There is a table for the central level, one for the local authorities.

Table 2 Production of EP services (Table B)

Producers

Total Specialized producers Non-specialized producers

government NACE 37, 38, 39

Secondary Ancillary

1.1 Current uses

1.1.1 Intermediate consumption


Producers

Total Specialized producers Non-specialized producers

government NACE

37, 38, 39 Secondary Ancillary

1.1.2 Compensation of employees

1.1.3 Consumption of fixed capital

1.1.4 Other taxes on production

1.1.5 Less other subsidies on production

1.1.6 Net operating surplus

1.2. Output (cost of production)

1.2.1 Non-environmental output

1.2.2 Environmental protection output

1.2.2.1 Non-market 1.2.2.2 Market 1.3 Current EP resources 1.3.1 Market output 1.3.2 Current transfers 2. Capital transactions 2.1.Gross Fixed Capital Formation

2.2. Other capital uses 2.3 Investment grants received

2.4 Other capital transfers received

3 Financing by producers Source: Eurostat 2002

All values in Table B are measured in a manner consistent with the accounting conventions of national accounting. Table B1 Supply and uses Table B1 permits the transition from total supply to uses. The main purpose of the table is to distribute the supply of market EP services among uses (how the service is used) by final consumption, intermediate consumption and capital formation.


Table 3: Table B1 Supply and uses of environmental protection

Production

Total market production

non-market

production

ancillary

1. Uses of resident units 1.1 Intermediate consumption

1.1.1 of which by specialized and secondary producers

1.1.2 of which by non-specialised producers

1.2 Final consumption 1.3 Gross capital formation (land improvement)

2. Exports Total uses (1+2) = total supply (3+4+5+6)

3. Output (basic prices) 4. Imports (customs price) 5. Non-deductible VAT

6. Other taxes on products (if any)

7. Subsidies on products (if any)

Total supply (3+4+5+6-7) Source: Eurostat 2002

The final consumption means household and government activities

and intermediate consumption refers to industries; capital formation mainly relates to the purchase of EP services for land improvement. Table B1 also describes the origin of the products, i.e. if the products have been manufactured domestically or if they’ve been imported for use.


Table A National expenditure for environmental protection

Table A describes the use of environmental services and gross capital formation for environmental services by categories of users.

The components of national expenditure consist in:

• uses of EP services (final consumption, intermediate consumption) by categories of users

- gross capital formation for EP activities - use of connected and adapted products (final consumption,

intermediate consumption) - specific transfers for environmental protection

Table 4: National expenditure by component and by user/beneficiary

(Table A)

Components

Users Specialized products

Other products Consumers

RWS Govern-ment

NACE 37, 38, 39

non-specializ.

Secon-dary

Govern-ment

House-holds

1 Uses of EP services

1.1 Final consumption

-market -non-market

1.2 Intermediate consumption

market -ancillary 2 Uses of adapted & connected products

2.1 Final consumption

2.2 Intermediate consumption

3. Gross Capital formation for EP

4 Specific transfers


Components

Users Specialized products Other products Consumers

RWS Govern-ment

NACE 37, 38, 39

non-specializ.

Secon-dary

Govern-ment

House-holds

4.1 Subsidies on production

4.2 Other specific transfers

5 Total uses of resident units (1+2+3+4)

6 Financed by the rest of the world

7 National expenditure for EP(5-6)

Source: Eurostat 2002

Much of the data is completed in Table A are from Tables B and B1. This refers to the use of environmental services and related products and product uses adapted. Table C Financing of national expenditure for environmental protection Table C describes the financing of national expenditure for environmental protection for each category of users / beneficiaries. This table is necessary because environmental financing flows different execution flows of expenditure by the fact that in addition to funding its own costs of the users are involved government transfers (investment grants, subsidies, etc.), financing the rest of the world (eg . European Union) or specific environmental taxes. Table 5 Financing of national expenditure for environmental protection

Table C Million lei Current prices FINANCING UNITS

Producers

Consumers RWS Total

General Gov.

Specia-

lized

Non specializ.

General Gov.

House-holds

General Gov. (GG) Central Gov.

(CG)


FINANCING UNITS

Producers

Consumers RWS Total

General Gov.

Specia-

lized

Non specializ.

General Gov.

House-holds

Local Gov. (LG) NPISHs Corporations

Specialized producers

Other producers Households National Expenditure

Source: Eurostat 2002

2.5 The indicators EPEA For statistical analysis - economic defines three categories of indicators which try to characterize environmental value, structure, time evolution and relationship to other economic activities: - indicators that highlight national environmental expenditure components; - indicators that describe the operations of producers of environmental services - indicators that describe the funding of national expenditure for environmental protection (resource indicators) National expenditure for environmental protection Depending on specific operations executed national expenditure for environmental protection are structured as follows: - final consumption of specific environmental services, representing household final consumption (final consumption of specific services trade) and collective consumption of government. Final consumption of specific services of the population is given the services purchased by households in the market (ex. collecting waste, sewage, etc.). Specific collective consumption of government represent those services that are not sold on the market and benefiting all institutional sectors, without being able to determine the value of each service rendered (ex. cleaning streets, street waste collection, etc.); - intermediate consumption of environmental services specific to productive units;


- capital expenditures are government spending and specialized producers for gross fixed capital formation and the total investments related to environmental protection to non-specialized producers - specific transfers consisting of subsidies on the production of specific services to producers of specialized services, or the compensation for loss of income due to environmental activities and production subsidies to non-specialized producers Production of specific environmental services Environmental service production is the result of specific activities carried out under the control and responsibility of a producer who uses labor, capital, goods and services for the production of specific services Production of environmental services could calculated by the type of producer: - specialized producers whose main activity is a specific activity - non specialized producers performing a specific activity as a secondary or ancillary activity to their main activity, unrelated to the environment When the work environment is executed as principal or secondary activity, production can be commercial or noncommercial.

Commercial production is for market or services covered by the sale and purchase products on the market. Noncommercial production is a service that is not sold on the market and includes: household services and collective services (services provided to the community or particular groups of households free or quasi-free).

In general, when the activity is ancillary the production is non-commercial.

Commercial production is valued at basic prices and noncommercial production at costs (sum of intermediate consumption, wages and consumption of fixed capital). Financing of national expenditure for environmental protection Environmental activities are characterized by a complex circuit of funding due to the existence of current and capital transfers, which are financed from general budgetary resources or specific duties. In this regard, the unit consumes specific service or environmental investing is not always funding unit. For each component of national expenditure is identified unit which provides funding and funding source, namely:


- The value of services funded by the users; - The value of services funded by the government; - The value of services provided by the non specialized producer; - The value of fixed capital expenditure financed by producers Funding of each component of national expenditure must be reflected in correspondence with the institutional sectors used in the national accounts, namely: a) expenditure funded by government, broken into three categories: - collective consumption of non-specific services; - gross capital formation of the government units; - current and capital transfers (subsidies, investment aid, etc.) made by government units; b) expenditure financed by the productive sector, which they can drill down into three categories: - the gross capital formation (the part that is not financed through investment aid and other capital transfers); - intermediate consumption of ancillary activities of the non-specialized producers; - transfers paid (ex. paying fees for environmental protection);

c) expenditure financed by the population also can be broken down into three categories: - individual l consumption of environmental services; - investment (ex. septic tanks, protective windows noise etc.); - payment of fees for environmental protection. 2.6 The main sources of data To complete the EPEA tables using data from existing statistical research (environmental statistics, production statistics, financial statistics) or the national accounts:

- Statistical survey "Environmental expenditure " which contains a good deal of information necessary for completing Schedule B – “production of environmental services”;

- Statistical research on industrial products and services (survey PRODROM) and business surveys;

- Data from national accounts: production and income generation in the public administration (Table 11 -S1311 and S1313- ESA transmission program) and input-output tables (Tables 15 and 16 of the ESA transmission program).


3. Application of environmental protection expenditure account 3.1 European level EPEA is a tool for monitoring environmental policy at the European level. The main objective is to assess the environmental economic resources in Member States. For international comparisons of national environmental expenditure reports from various summary indicators, and outcome of these reports lead to global or individual decisions to the Commission. Whereas the GDP is the main indicator of synthesis used in international comparisons, in the analysis of environmental protection at European level is calculated the share of environmental expenditure in GDP.

Figure 1 Share of environmental expenditure in the industry in GDP, in

some Member States (% )

0,00

0,20

0,40

0,60

0,80

1,00

1,20

Eur

opea

n

Bul

garia

Cze

ch

Ger

man

y

Est

onia

Spa

in

Fra

nce

Cro

atia

Ital

y

Cyp

rus

Latv

ia

Lith

uani

a

Hun

gary

Net

herla

nds

Pol

and

Por

tuga

l

Rom

ania

Slo

veni

a

Slo

vaki

a

Fin

land

Uni

ted

2008

2009

2010

2011

3.2 National level EPEA provides a systematic and comprehensive framework for describing and analyzing, on the one hand flows environmental expenditure and on the other financial flows in the national economy. In terms of the expenditures for environmental protection, very useful for policy analysts is to analyze the various components of expenditure on environmental areas and changes over time that occur at this level. Key indicators for analysis are on the one hand, national expenditure made by category of expenditure


and by category of producers, the areas of the environment, and secondly financing of the expenses by donor units on the other financing expenses by financing units.

Figure 2 Structure of expenditures for environmental protection according to categories of expenditure from 2008 to 2011

million current prices

0,00

5000,00

10000,00

15000,00

20000,00

25000,00

30000,00

total cheltuieli

cheltuieli curente

cheltuieli de capital

total cheltuieli 22248,04 19271,93 18939,09 26876,92

cheltuieli curente 11217,34 10851,43 12567,20 17677,21

cheltuieli de capital 11030,71 8420,50 6371,89 9199,71

2008 2009 2010 2011

Figure 3 Structure of expenditures for environmental protection according to the categories of producers from 2008 to 2011


0,00

2.000,00

4.000,00

6.000,00

8.000,00

10.000,00

12.000,00

14.000,00

16.000,00

- producatori specializati

- producători nespecializaţi

- administraţia publică

- gospodării

- producatorispecializati

1.716,52 1.046,72 980,13 733,11

- producătorinespecializaţi

8761,47 7821,93 4995,61 6843,11

- administraţiapublică

4.472,63 3.230,02 4.137,75 5444,48

- gospodării 6.441,58 6.201,79 8.054,98 13856,14

2008 2009 2010 2011


Figure 4 Expenditures for environmental protection environmental areas in 2011


0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

18939,09 1558,64 2887,74 10610,32 572,73 241,11 43,33 3025,22

Total aer apa deseuri sol zgomot biodivalte

domenii

To analyze the environmental efforts made at the national level in line with economic growth efforts can make a link between data protection expenditure and economic data synthesis in the national economy. This link is possible because EPEA indicators are built on the same principles of national accounts indicators so that they can be computed as a statistical indicator of intensity ratio between the two categories. These indices are calculated both at national and representative institutional sectors, namely: government, corporations, households

Figure 5 Share of expenditures for environmental protection in GDP (%)

4

3 3

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2008 2009 2010 2011

%


Figure 6 Environmental investments in Public Administration from 2008 to 2011

0,00

5.000,00

10.000,00

15.000,00

20.000,00

25.000,00

30.000,00

35.000,00

40.000,00

mil

ioan

e le

i

investitii in adm.publica

investitii de mediu inadm.publica

investitii inadm.publica

33.987,50 29.808,10 29.728,00 30.516,80

investitii de mediu inadm.publica

2.682,30 1.474,20 2514,70 3.421,10

2008 2009 2010 2011

Figure 7 Investment environment in the private sector

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

investitii in sectorul privat

investitii de mediu in sectorulprivat

investitii in sectorulprivat

72025,4 53336,3 46660,0

investitii de mediuin sectorul privat

8.424,96 7.654,85 3.926,10

2008 2009 2010


Figure 8 Share of final consumption for environmental services in final consumption of households

(%)

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1

2008 2009 2010

Figure 9 Share collective consumption for environmental services in all

government collective consumption (%)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2008 2009 2010 2011

%


References Mîndricelu, C. (2001) – „Statistical analysis - economic environment”, PhD

Thesis, ASE Bucharest Eurostat (2000) Classification of Environmental Protection Activities

(CEPA) Eurostat (2002) SERIEE Environnemental Protection Expenditure

Accounts Compilation Guide, Luxemburg Eurostat(2002). Environmental Protection Expenditure Accounts –

Results of pilot applications Eurostat ( 2007) Classification of the Functions of Government (COFOG) EU-Regulation No 691/2011 of the European Parliament and of the

Council on European environmental economic accounts. EU-Regulation No 538/2014 of the European Parliament and of the

Council amending Regulation No 691/2011 of the European Parliament and of the Council on European environmental economic accounts

Eurostat (2002) Manual on Sources and Methods for the compilation of ESA95 Financial Accounts, Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities,

NIS Romania (2013) Grant Agreement in the field of Environmental Accounts, Final technical implementation report


Some Considerations on Agricultural ExploitationsSome Considerations on Agricultural ExploitationsSome Considerations on Agricultural ExploitationsSome Considerations on Agricultural Exploitations

Amelia DIACONU, PhD Student Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest

Abstract This article is aimed at presenting some of the concepts and

indicators currently used in the analysis of agricultural exploitations, of their social and economic role and importance at world and European level. The EU enlargement process comprised important structural transformations in the agriculture of the former socialist countries and their passage to the market economy. In direct connection with these transformations the long-disputed issue regarding the superiority of the large-scale or small-scale farming was brought back into discussion.

Key words: agriculture, exploitation, structure, regulations, ideologies

1. Introduction Along the history, different ideologies pleaded for different types of

agricultural exploitations, because the practice must take into account not only the economic criteria, but also the social and environmental one, not only the private economic interest, but also the national economic interest, the abundance or the scarcity of the natural production factor, the population number, traditions etc.

Mercantilists were the partisans of small-scale farming as they considered it capable of maximum intensity1.

Physiocrats, a part of the English classicists and Marxists, support the superiority of large-scale farming as being the only one capable of obtaining an economic surplus for the existence of the society.

Moderate economists - promoters of the in-between situation - consider middle-scale exploitations are recommended in a healthy state and the extremes - consisting in the very large-scale exploitations, as well as in the very small-scale exploitations - should only be an exception, because

1 Diaconu, Amelia, Diaconu, Aurel (2012) – “Sustainable Development Approach for Semi-

subsistence Agriculture in the European Union”, Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Issue 2/2012


each agricultural exploitation category that exists at a certain point in the society has its pluses and minuses „ ... The rural issue or, more precisely, the peasantry issue was and continues to be one of the country's most important economic, social, political, cultural and moral issues. In the century we left behind not so long ago, the rural environment, farming and farmers surpassed three large periods, marked by two major ruptures in relation to the political system and the economic and social organization. The important structural changes that were in fact essential mutations that changed every time at 180 degrees the political, legal and economic concepts, left profound marks, affecting the state of the village, of agriculture and of our peasant...”

Firstly, we need to point out the features of the agricultural exploitations' market participation found in the EC Regulation no. 1698/2005 on the support for rural development granted from the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development for semi-subsistence farming defined as "agricultural exploitations of which production is mainly destined to one's own consumption and that also trade a part of its own production” .

It must be mentioned that, given the structural heterogeneity of agricultural exploitations in the EU, the definition adopted through the EC Regulation no. 1698/2005 deliberately avoids the establishment of consumption and sales thresholds, so that each member state be able to adopt its own eligibility criteria within the rural development programs (RDP) in order to support semi-subsistence farming that follow to be included in restructuring processes with financing from the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD)

The size thresholds in each member state is founded, in great part, on the economic size of agricultural exploitations. The agricultural exploitations' economic size thresholds are largely applied within statistical and political purposes throughout the EU and they are expressed in European Size Units (ESU) that describe the economic size of farms (1 ESU = 1,200 euro from the gross standard margin - GSM).

Agricultural exploitations enter within 6 economic size classes, as follows: class 1: 0 - < 4 ESU; class 2: 4 - < 8 ESU; class 3: 8 - < 16 ESU; class 4: 16 - < 40 ESU; class 5: 40 - < 100 ESU; class 6: >= 100 ESU.

A particular case is represented by the poverty threshold, which refers to the minimum level of the income considered necessary in order to reach an adequate standard of living in a certain Member State. In general, the poverty threshold refers to a limit of 60% from the equivalent average


income in each member state and it is also the poverty threshold adopted by Eurostat in order to determine the poverty "risk” .

Based on the agricultural exploitations' Used Agricultural Area, they can be classified in five size classes, as follows: class 0 which includes agricultural exploitations with one UAA comprised between 0-9 hectares; class 1 – includes exploitations with 10-24 hectares; class 2 – includes exploitations with 25-50 hectares; class 3 – includes exploitations with 51-100 hectares; class 4 – includes exploitations with over 100 hectares.

The Common Agricultural Policy's entire evolution targeted farms restructuring and agricultural production improvement through the use technical progress in agriculture.

From one stage to another, it focused on investment into production facilities, both at the level of individual farms, as well as at the level of processing and sales enterprises. The main aims were the following: increasing the agriculture productivity, market stabilization, ensuring even incomes for farmers, as well as food safety, reasonable prices for consumers2.

Throughout the economic boom the main mechanisms for achieving the CAP aims were as follows: the internal guaranteed pricing system for market support; protection of imports; subsidies for exports; and the results did not fail to appear - small-sized farms transformation; increase of the member states' self-supply degree with a broader range of agricultural products; the older farmers, with low possibilities of adjusting to the market, had the possibility to retire; the increase on the international market of the agricultural products' importance (one third of the international trade); upgrade and reorganization, based on productivity criteria, of the subsistence farms in parallel with the substantial cut in their number etc.

It should be reminded that in 2003 (according to the Agenda 2000) the cut-off of the support granted for production took place.

CAP reformation, initiated in 2005, targeted: the assurance of a minimum income for supporting producers (under the conditions of observing some compulsory quality standards) to produce in consistency with the market requirements. Likewise, three main fields of interest were identified: agriculture restructuring; land and environment management; expansion of rural development by diversification.




The main features of the European Union farms were analysed from the viewpoint of the main performance indicators of agricultural exploitations

Used Agricultural Area - Out of the total EU area in 2007 of 4.3 million km2, the used agricultural area (UAA) amounts to 40.1%, respectively 1.74 million km 2. There are disparities between the member states in relation to the used agricultural area (UAA). Thus, Italy, Romania, Poland, Great Britain, Germany, Spain, France register each an UAA percentage from the national territory comprised between 7.4 and 16%. At the same time, in 15 member states (Malta, Luxembourg, Cyprus, Slovenia, Estonia, Belgium, Latvia, the Netherlands, Slovakia, Finland, Lithuania, Denmark, Bulgaria, Sweden, Austria) the UAA percentage from the national territory is below 2% in each member state.

The highest weights of cultivable lands in the UAA and comprised within 70.1-98% are mainly found in the following member states: Finland (98.0%); Denmark (92.0%); Bulgaria (87.3%); Sweden (84.3%); Hungary (84.0%); Malta (77.6%); Poland (76.0%); Cyprus (73.9%); the Czech Rep. (73.1%); Germany (70.2%); Slovakia (70.1%). At the same time, the lowest weights of cultivable lands in the UAA (between 24.3-37.3%) are in: Ireland (24.3%); Portugal (31.0%); Slovenia (35.4%); Great Britain (37.3%).

Romania, with 63.2% cultivable lands from the UAA is found close to the EU-27 average (with 2.7 pp more).

Pastures and meadows hold the highest weights in the UAA – between 36.1-75.7% - they are found in: Ireland (75.7%); Great Britain (62.5%); Slovenia (58.9%); Austria (54.3%); Luxembourg (52.2%); Portugal (51.3%); the following countries have pastures below 10% from the UAA: Cyprus (1.3%); Finland (1.7%); Denmark (7.6%); Bulgaria (9.2%). We mention than this land category is absent in Malta.

Romania, with 33.0% pastures from the UAA is found close to the EU-27 average (with 0.1 pp more).

According to the data of the last ASA in 2007, the number of agricultural exploitations in the EU-27 amounted to 13.700 thousand entities; the largest number of agricultural exploitations are found in Italy (12.3% of the total EU-27 number), Poland (17.5%) and in Romania (28.7%), while in Luxembourg, Malta and Estonia they hold below 0.2% each.

On the date of the last ASA (2007) it was noted with respect to the situation of ASA 2003 that the number of agricultural exploitations dropped by 8.8%. Thus, in 21 member states the number of agricultural exploitations


went down with values comprised between 37.8% (Denmark) and 2.6% (Slovakia); in Romania, throughout the indicated period, the number of agricultural exploitations dropped by 4.6%.

The percentage from the total number of agricultural exploitations that hold irrigated lands in 2007 was comprised between 15.0% (Bulgaria) and 78.5% (Cyprus). Romania held only 2.7%.

In 2007, as compared to 2003, the percentage of agricultural exploitations that held irrigated lands out of the total number grew by 4.0% (France) to 57.1% (Poland). Over the mentioned period, the analysed indicator dropped by 53.4%.

The cattle found in the EU-27 agricultural exploitations amounts to 89.5 million head; most cattle are found in Great Britain (10.3 million head), Germany (12.7 million head) and in France (19.4 million head) – these member states hold jointly 47.3% of the effectives. Romania, with 2.7 million head (in 2007) holds only 3.1% of the total cattle effective in the EU-27.

During 2003-2007 the cattle effectives found in the EU-27 agricultural exploitations registered a drop by 2.8%. In Romania they dropped by -4.8%. In the EU-27, the number of cattle grew on average by 7 head per agricultural exploitations in 2007; Romania registered on average a growth of 1 cattle head per agricultural exploitation, thus being at the same level with Greece, Hungary, Bulgaria and Cyprus.

The size of agricultural exploitations in the European Union - In general, the farms of 20-50 ha and over in the EU hold the highest economic importance and they concentrate almost 60% of the agricultural area. Although, by countries we observe a certain differentiation (in Greece, for example, the farms of up to 10 ha hold over 57 % of the agricultural area, while in France, the same size category concentrates only 4.3 % of the area).

In relation to the category farms over 20 ha, Greece concentrates 23% of the area, and France - 86.5 %. The growth in size for agricultural exploitations was also determined with time by the labour productivity's evolution at national level by branches of activity.

Another aspect that characterizes the West-European agriculture3 is the fact that larger exploitations were established on the basis of leasehold. Thus, in Germany and France 40 - 50% of the agricultural land comes from leaseholding.




The medium size's tendency to grow is naturally accompanied by another tendency – to reduce the total number of agricultural exploitations, based on the extinction of a significant number of small-scale agricultural exploitations every year, not being viable from an economic viewpoint. This process was favoured by the force of the western economy that was able to offer jobs and income sources from other non-agricultural branches to the farmers that left agriculture.

The great diversity of agricultural structures met in the EU is given by the fact that in each member state the minimum economic size thresholds for agricultural exploitations are distinct. For instance, for the year 2004, the economic size threshold varied from 1 ESU (Cyprus) and 16 ESU (Belgium, the Netherlands and Great Britain).

Characteristics of agricultural exploitations from the economic size viewpoint - Agricultural exploitations in the Central and Eastern European countries, as area is concerned, exceed almost three times the Western European ones, but they register poor results in relation to the economic size, with an ESU average size per region of nearly two times smaller, being an indicator that uses less intensively the land into possession.

Labour force in agricultural exploitations - the society's general development level affects in one way or another labour force consumption in agriculture, both quantitatively as well as qualitatively. At the EU-27 level, labour force in agricultural exploitations, according to ASA, 2007, is the equivalent of 11,963 thousand AWU (annual work unit). The highest labour force consumption was registered in: Italy (11.14% from total recorded AWU); Romania (18.86%); Poland (19.35%).

In the EU-27, the permanent labour force in agriculture, represented on average 92% of the total recorded AWU (10,795 thousand AWU), oscillating between 81.6-89.8% (Spain – 81.6%; Greece-85.9%; France – 89.3%; Italy -89.8%) and 99-100% (Latvia, Luxembourg, Malta).

On average, per EU-27 the women labour force in agriculture held 80% of the total recorded AWU. The highest percentage of women that work in agriculture (41-50%) were recorded in: Austria, Portugal and Slovenia – each member state with 41%. A relatively low woman labour force in agriculture (14-25% out of the total) is recorded in Malta (14%), Spain (20%), Ireland (21%), Denmark and Great Britain (each state with 23%), France (25%). In Romania, this indicator was 42%.

The semi-subsistence agricultural exploitations' number is one of the main performance indicators for the subsistence and semi-subsistence agricultural exploitations in the EU.


In the case of Romania, the number of agricultural exploitations that achieve at least 1 ESU dropped by over 25%, respectively by 28.5%, in 2007 as compared to 2003; In a similar situation were the following countries: Portugal (-30.6%) and Bulgaria (-25.1%).

The characterisation of subsistence exploitations according to the market participation criteria probably represents another dimension based on which a farm typology can be generated in the case of subsistence production.

Conclusions Romania's europenization process also included important structural

transformations in agriculture through privatisation and passage to the market economy. In direct connection with these radical transformations and the long-disputed issue regarding the superiority of the large-scale or small-scale farming was brought back into discussion in the Romanian ideological environment. In fact, this is a subject intensely debated and analysed by the agricultural economists throughout the entire world given the complex economic, social, political, environmental, tradition, etc. impact that various types of agricultural exploitations have upon the society, in general.

Europenization, i.e. a stronger connection to the European environment also involved the adoption of certain concepts and indicators currently used in the analysis of agricultural exploitations at world and European level, of their social and economic role and importance, that were selected and concisely presented in the paper. Thus, this article points out the main features of agricultural exploitations in the European Union, with some reference to their main performance indicators, such as: Used Agricultural Area; the Structure of Agricultural Surface Usage; Number of agricultural exploitations; Number of agricultural exploitations with irrigated lands; Number of cattle found in agricultural exploitations; size of agricultural exploitations in the European Union by size classes; general characteristics of the agricultural exploitations' area, by size classes, agricultural exploitations' labour force etc.

References Balmann, A. „On the Dynamics of Structural Change in Agriculture” , Paper

presented at the 96-th EAAE Seminar held in Taenikon, Switzerland, 10-11.01.2006. Power point presentation


Cimpoieş, D. „Evaluarea consolidării exploataţiilor agricole prin prisma dimensiunii economice” , în Ştiinţa agricolă, nr. 2/2011. 021225 1857 -0003.

Davidova, Sofia, „Semi—subsistence farming: a remnant from the past or a provider of public goods and a cultural asset?” , http://www.nuigalway.ie/cisc/documents/cisc_seminar_dr_sophia_davidova.pdf

Drăghici, M., Catană, Dan „Considerente privind dimensiunea economica a exploatatiilor agricole din Romania” , Institutul de Cercetare pentru

Economia Agriculturii şi Dezvoltare Rurală din cadrul A.S.A.S., 2010 Zamfir, Cătălin „Ce fel de tranziţie vrem? Analiza critică a tranziţiei II” ,

Raportul social al ICCV nr. 5, Bucureşti, 2012


Aspects Concerning the Verification of the Aspects Concerning the Verification of the Aspects Concerning the Verification of the Aspects Concerning the Verification of the Residual Normality and the Prediction ofResidual Normality and the Prediction ofResidual Normality and the Prediction ofResidual Normality and the Prediction of the the the the

Regression ModelRegression ModelRegression ModelRegression Model


„Artifex” University of Bucharest Prof. Radu Titus MARINESCU, PhD.

„Artifex” University of Bucharest Assoc. prof. Alexandru MANOLE, PhD.

„Artifex” University of Bucharest Ec. Emilia STANCIU

Abstract The tests used for verifying certain hypotheses formulated on the

parameters of the regression model as well as for defining the intervals of confidence for these ones and elaborating predictions have as starting point the verification of the hypothesis concerning the normal distribution of the residual. Key words: residual, prediction, trimming, coefficient, distribution

The relations applied for testing the characteristics of the residual distribution are defined by taking into account the asymmetry and the trimming of the normal distribution. For an alleatory variable with a normal distribution, the asymmetry coefficient is zero while the trimming one is three. Let’s consider the regression linear model

niaxby iii ,...,1, =++= ε , and the series of the estimated residual ( ) niie ,1= ,

cu )ˆˆ( iii xabye +−= . For the residual series there are two indicators to

define, used by the descriptive statistics in order to analyze the asymmetry and the trimming of a distribution series:

- asymmetry coefficient


32

23

1 µµβ =

- trimming coefficient

2

42 µ

µβ =

In order to define the statistical tests used for the verification of the residual distribution according to a normal distribution, the following property of the symmetry and trimming coefficients: „Consider the alleatory variable ),( 2

xmNX σ→ . The asymmetry and

trimming coefficients calculated for a series of data with n values, which is defined for this variable, are meeting the following properties:

→

nN

6,0ˆ 2/1

1β ,

→

nN

24,3ˆ

2β

In order to verify the null hypothesis of the normal distribution of the residual ( ) niie ,1= we have to resort to one of the tests:

- tests for verifying the asymmetry and trimming for the distribution of the estimated residual;

- tests for verifying the asymmetry and the test Jarque – Bera. On the ground of the estimated series it is verified whether this distribution is normally divided. By using this series, the two coefficients

are estimated, as 2/11β , respectively 2β .

Under the null hypothesis H0: β1 = 0, it is resulting:

( )1,06

ˆ 2/11 N

n

S →=β

.

Similarly, if defining the null hypothesis on the second coefficient, as H0:β2=3, then:

( )1,024

3ˆ2 N

n

K →−

=β


The null hypothesis according to which the residual is uniformly distributed is accepted provided the following inequities are simultaneously met:

21

α−< tS and

21

α−< tK ,

where 2

1α−

t is the value of the distribution quartile N(0,1)for the significance

threshold α. The test Jarque – Bera allows the simultaneous verification of the

properties of asymmetry and trimming of the residuals series. The test is defined as against the two coefficients 2/1

1β and 2β , taking into consideration the distribution of their estimators, resulting:

22

2

2

2

2/11

24

3ˆ

6

ˆχββ

→

−+

=−

nn

BJ .

Or, as the equivalent form:

( )2

21 3ˆ246

−+=− ββ nnBJ

For significance threshold α the null hypothesis of the normal distribution of the residual variable is rejected if the inequality below is met:

21;2 αχ −>− BJ .

Prediction through the regression model

On the basis of the data series ( ) niii yx ,1, = the parameters of the

regression line have been estimated. Thus we get the series of the estimated values for the endogenous variable through the relation:

nixaby ii ,1,ˆˆˆ =+=

Within the prediction process, using the regression linear model, there is the question mark on how to solve the following two issues:

- accomplishing predictions either punctually or through intervals of confidence. For accomplishing the first prediction the punctual method is applied while for the second situation, the prediction is made through an interval of confidence;

- verifying the framing of certain points within the tendency postulated by a regression model. If there are named values for


the two characteristics of the regression model, under the form of the pair (x0,y0), the issue to settle consists of setting out whether they line up with the trend defined by the regression model. We shall verify if he value of the endogenous characteristic is taking part with the interval of prediction being defined for a level of the exogenous characteristic and a threshold of significance.

We shall make punctual or through an interval of confidence predictions for a value of the endogenous characteristic y0 or for its mean, E(y0 ). For each and every case there are various calculation formulas being established for the punctual prediction and the prediction through an interval of confidence. For the regression linear model, the real value of the endogenous characteristic is specified through the relation:

000 ε++= axby (1)

where 0ε is the accomplishment of a normal distribution of mean zero and

dispersion equal to one. The punctual value estimated through the regression linear model is defined by the relation:

00 ˆˆ xaby +=

As a rule, this value is utilized for defining an interval of confidence. In order to define the interval of confidence, in the conditions that a level of the significance threshold is specified, we must take into consideration the fact that, by utilizing the regression linear model for defining the punctual prediction, a prediction error is made, equalling to:

00000 )ˆ()ˆ(ˆ ε+−+−=−= xaabbyye (2)

Considering the properties of the two estimators of the regression line estimators, we shall submit below the main properties of the prediction error. The mean of the prediction error equals to zero. We define the equality: E(e0)=0 The above result is obvious if applying the mean operator to the terms of the equality (2), taking into account the properties of the two estimators and the hypothesis formulated on the residual variable. The dispersion of the prediction error made in the case when the purpose is to make a prediction for the value of the endogenous characteristic y0 is:


( ) ( )( )

−

−++=∑

ii xx

xx

ne

2

2

020

11var εσ (3)

In order to obtain the expression of the variance of the prediction error, the dispersion of the terms of the equality (2) is applied. The following outcomes are obtained:

( )

( )( )

−

−++=

−

++=

+++==

∑i

i

xxxxxx

xx

xx

n

S

xx

S

x

nx

S

baxeaxbeEe

2

2

02

0

2

20

2

020

200

11

211

)ˆ,ˆcov(02)var()ˆvar()ˆvar()(var

ε

ε

σ

σ

For building up an interval of prediction for the value of the endogenous variable, in the conditions of a fixed level of the exogenous characteristic, the following two results are to be taken into consideration:

200

00

ˆ

ˆ

)1,0(ˆ

−→−

→−

np

tyy

Nyy

σ

σ (4)

We noted by pσ the estimator of the average standard deviation of

the prediction error made for the value y0. This is calculated through the following relation:

( )( )∑ −

−++=

ii xx

xx

n 2

2

011ˆˆ εσσ (5)

If a certain significance threshold α is fixed, then we shall define the interval of prediction for y0:

( )( )

( )( )∑∑ −

−++⋅+<<−

−++⋅−

ii

ii xx

xx

ntyy

xx

xx

nty 2

2

02/02

2

02/

11ˆ

11ˆ εαεα σσ

(6)


For a stable significance threshold, the size of the prediction interval is function of the following measurements:

- the value of the exogenous for which the value of the endogenous characteristic is predicted. This factor is quantified

through the term ( )20 xx − ;

- the number of terms of the series which have been used for estimating the parameters of the regression linear model. The prediction error is proportionally inverse to n;

- the quality of the regression model being quantified through the dispersion of the residual variable;

- the value of the significance threshold. In the situation where a prediction on the average values E(y0) is made, under the conditions of an established values for the exogenous characteristic, the dispersion of the prediction error is:

( )( )

−

−+=∑

ii xx

xx

ne

2

2

020

1)var( εσ (7)

For proving the last relation it must be considered that the prediction error made in this case is:

00

000

)ˆ()ˆ(

ˆ)(

ε+−+−=

−=

xaabb

yyEe

By applying the mean operator to the terms of the equality above, we get the formula (7).

References Andrei, T., Bourbonais, R. (2008) - „Econometrie”, Editura Economică,

Bucureşti Andrei, T., Stancu, S., Iacob A.I., Tusa, E., - „Introducere în econometrie

utilizând Eviews”, Editura Economică, Bucureşti Anghelache, C. şi alţii (2012) – „Elemente de econometrie teoretică şi

aplicată”, Editura Artifex, Bucureşti Anghelache, C., Cruceru, D., Marinescu, R.T. (2011) - „Modele

econometrice utilizate în analiza performanţelor financiare” , Scientific Research Themes/Studies Communications at the National Seminary „Octav Onicescu”, Romanian Statistical Review Trim. 2/2011, pp. 94-100


Dougherty, C. (2008) – “Introduction to econometrics. Fourth edition”, Oxford University Press

Hendry, D.F. (2002) – „Applied econometrics without sinning”, Journal of Economic Surveys, 16

Voineagu, V., Ţiţan, E. şi colectiv (2007) – “Teorie şi practică econometrică”, Editura Meteor Press


Marketing Decisions in Terms of Consumer Marketing Decisions in Terms of Consumer Marketing Decisions in Terms of Consumer Marketing Decisions in Terms of Consumer BehaviorBehaviorBehaviorBehavior

Assoc. Prof. Dan NASTASE PhD.

Master Student Cristian STOICIU Student Denisa OPREA

„Artifex” University of Bucharest

Abstract On the market, the consumer is defined as the main element, element of reference, as the market is unable to take independent existence without it. Modern marketing concept assumes that all economic activity should be directed towards meeting the requirements of actual and potential consumers with maximum efficiency. Basically the whole complex of marketing activities is designed to ensure goods and services that consumers require, appropriate merchandise, in the right quantities at the right price, at the right place, at the right time. Key words: marketing, consumer, behavior, study, reference, economics, market, model, factors, system. Study results shows that there are various application for the behavior of consumers. Segmenting markets today are characterized by a multitude of theoretical approaches, and practical approaches targeting various products and services. Basically, even if market segmentation and types have the same objective, their starting point is quite different: the segmentation of fragments from their whole markets generate typology classifications based on individual cases, consumers and businesses. In terms of market segmentation and target segments, there is a wide variety of approaches, characterized by two key elements: the variables and criteria for segmentation and segmentation model or models. Many researchers have proposed a general set of variables for quantification and segmentation, geographical, demographic, economic and behavioral, that can be used in any market. From this point of view, although there are a lot of approaches, marketing science models have not generalized in delivering projects for more markets.


Other authors have proposed criteria and analytical models that have worked in some markets, but should be tested in other markets because it contains generalized valences. For market segmentation based on lifestyle, a number of researchers have used seven demographic variables: social class, sex, age, last school graduated, position in the family, marital status and children in the family, to which sixty-six lifestyle variables have been attached, resulting in seven segments, described with clarity. Unfortunately, the model is useful approach, but can not be generalized as lifestyle variables are not the same in every area and in every market. Applying the model based on the theory of finite distribution structure, they conducted a market segmentation for durable goods, using seven core variables: family income, number of adults in the family, the presence of children in the family under 18 years of presence in the family children under six years, if the wife works, the length of employment and current residence, if the family uses a credit card. Although, by this method, there were identified segments of families that were studied as consumer concern replacement, this can not be generalized as it keeps strictly to market customization. Based on responses to price and promotion conducted to a market segmentation for yogurt, groups of families identified by decisions on the brand, purchase frequency and quantity. This approach allowed the sales to be broken by choosing brand purchase behavior, frequency of purchase and buyer calitation. Of those shown, it follows that market segmentation can be done by various categories of consumers or associated features of products and services. Any analysis and the study of consumer behavior must integrate, in one way or another, the specific marketing research because the marketing decisions studies based on consumer behavior takes consistency. Therefore, it is considered that the results of studying consumer behavior is integrated into marketing decisions, if it complies with the following triad: specific marketing problem formulation and design of appropriate studies consumer behavior, the actual implementation of research study for consumer behavior and the development of marketing tools to be implemented in market practice.

• Formulating marketing problem is a result of marketing policies, the marketing strategy, the research tools offered by martketing, specifying the necessary information and data required to


substantiate the decision obtained by studying consumer behavior etc.

Marketing research and study of consumer behavior are closely related to how the categories relate to economic efficiency and effectiveness. The concept of efficiency among these studies is expressed synthetically by profit, the concept of efficiency refers to the achievement of objectives (goals) marketing without necessarily making reference to the efforts, often representing measure actual sales effectiveness.

• Formulation of the problem is dependent on the achievements of marketing research. This should be consistent with the objectives, defining the problem that needs to be solved. It must be such that the conduct and performance of research to be impeccably designed, meaning that if any correction is applied, it does not require changes likely to alter the substance of the problem of marketing. As such, it requires thorough grounding in relation to: the number of individual interviews; scale group discussions; sample size; length of the questionnaire; scale processing; location of expansion to be achieved etc.

• The pinnacle of genealogical dimension associated research is given by the effective integration of the results of the study of consumer behavior in marketing decisions.

Like any decision related to solve a marketing problem, it has the following components: possible strategies, market variables, market variables prediction, the consequences of marketing and decision criteria. Marketing strategies have alternative constructions, the combination of controllable factors in terms of the market, which can be known by way of studies offered consumer behavior. Uncontrollable market variables cover the market, but are involved in different areas of management decision. Market variables prediction is made, usually in the form of probabilities of occurrence, as evidenced both as punctual as well as the probable ranges can enter variables in question. To assess probabilities, there are market variables that assumes system stability, which is a key concept for all decisions of the management team of the company. Consequences of marketing actions express the results that are expected when applying a specific marketing action when there is a certain ambience. Decision criterion covers the principle of selecting a choice, according to the amount of information available to the decision maker to


get the best solution. As in many other fields, developing marketing decisions can be made in conditions: certainty, risk, uncertainty total, partial uncertainty, conflict, etc. The risk arises in situations where normal course of development is known, which is based on some regularity, but that does not exclude chance, which may occur with a certain probability, and the state that express uncertainty on given decision is not a known law acting, so it wold be possible to determine a probability for possible events. Marketing decisions with certainty assume that every possible marketing action will generate a particular result, so the strategy that produces the best result is to be selected. In these cases, the marketing decision is simple. The difficulty posed by such a decision lies in the large number of strategies. Marketing decisions under risk imply a formal analysis of decision alternatives and their consequences; while the effects of decisions are not known for sure, the best action is the one that maximizes the anticipations. The early results of a random process (random variables) form the weighted value of all variable values, each of which is weighted with its own probability of occurrence. In general, in a decision-making situation, the risk is perceived as a psychological reality, but for various marketing activities risk can be quantified and measured by probabilities; so if the chance of success is 0.8 then the risk is 0.2. The process by which policy makers that integrates results of studying consumer behavior in leading companies processes perceive the risk as extremely complex and involves both the probability of a combination of marketing actions and market variables (risk increases with increasing negative effects) and preferences for certain outcomes, and as man increases the likelihood of extreme outcomes (positive or negative) the risk is perceived to be higher. In marketing practice, for risk measurement, there is calculated the mathematical expectation of financial results and losses. Marketing decisions in terms of total ignorance assumes that alternatives are decisions who lead to consequences with unknown probabilities. Most cases are attached to new products. In marketing research, uncertainty refers to the probability of the consequences of alternative actions. If uncertainty is seen as lack of information, the whole issue should be considered in such cases uncertainty, it occurs in all phases of the decision, from problem definition of marketing.


The marketing decisions taken in terms of total ignorance criteria decision-maker's attitude may be: 1 Maximin (Abraham Wald) and pessimistic conservative principle, because the market minimize results and the decision maker will choose the maximum possible. 2 Maximax (Hurwicz) completely optimistic principle; recommended action to produce maximum results. 3 Coefficient optimist (Hurwicz) optimistic or pessimistic criterion; to give by considering the first two criteria, the decision maker takes into account both the highest and lowest results, weighting their ignorance with a constant related to the attitude of the decision maker. 4 Minimax (Savage): the principle of regret; decision maker minimizes the regret of having selected an action that is most appropriate. 5 Laplace (principle of sufficient reason): the principle that transforms uncertainty risk by assigning equal probability to all market variables. Marketing decisions in conditions of partial ignorance are very common in marketing, as this area is rarely characterized by total ignorance. In almost all situations, decision makers have more information, but they must always be completed, because the decision must have a scientific basis. Using their experience with integrating new information finds a large illustration among these decisions, by using the analysis buyesiene. Decisions under conditions of conflict are taken from one or more competitors real, apart from the hypothetical market conditions and decisions for general situations of risk and uncertainty. Therefore, these decisions are delimited according to the number of competitors and the degree of opposition to their interests, the most common variant of this kind of decision the game with two competing and sum zero. What a player wins, the other loses, as illustrated by the matrix representation of decision outcomes or rewards. In all cases, integrating the results of studying the behavior consumer marketing decisions is shown to be based on systemic vision problem formulation of marketing, conducting research and proper settlement of the situation in which the decision-makers.


References

Balaure, V. (coordonator ), Adăscăli ţei, V., Bălan, C., Boboc, Şt., Cătoiu I., Olteanu, V., Pop, N. Al., Teodorescu, N. (2008) – “Marketing”, Editura Uranus, Bucureşti

Cătoiu, I., Teodorescu, N. (2008) – “Comportamentul consumatorului”, Editura Uranus, Bucureşti

Koetler, Ph. (2006) – “Managementul marketingului”, Editura Teora, Bucureşti

Mecu, Gh. (coordinator, 2002) – “Studiul comportamentului consumatorului în economia de piaţǎ contemporanǎ”, Editura Genicod

Ştefănescu, V., Neagu, V., Teodorescu, N. (1978) – “Studierea directǎ a cererii de marfuri a populaţiei în profil microteritorial, prin efectuarea de sondaje statistice în târguri sau expoziţii” , Revista Comerţul Modern, nr. 6, 1978.

Udrescu, M. (2008) – “Studiul comportamentului consumatorului”, Editura Artifex, Bucureşti


Sports Journalism and the Quality of Sport and Sports Journalism and the Quality of Sport and Sports Journalism and the Quality of Sport and Sports Journalism and the Quality of Sport and Sport Culture in RomaniaSport Culture in RomaniaSport Culture in RomaniaSport Culture in Romania

Assistant teacher Cristian GHENA, PhD Student

„Artifex” University of Bucharest

Abstract The issue of recognition of a sports journalism as a quality component of social life that can positively influence the sports and its perception by the population is omnipresent in contemporary society in Romania.

Key words: sport, journalism, marketing, management, Romania, Olympic, marketing, sportive journalism, strategy, public, sport

Nowadays we witness a huge increase in public interest towards sport and information about sport. Growing popularity of sport has attracted businessmen to thisarea that has become a good possibility for investments. Sport and sports journalism arerepresenting not just social activities now, but turn out to be a part of economic sphere, therefore should act according to economic principles, particularly those of marketing.Sports journalism should behave just like any other service or product that has to be soldin conditions of the best possible visibility.

Influence of sports journalism in improving the quality of sport and increasing the awareness of public about sport and sport culture represent a very actually issue and research subject in 2014. That because the sport becoming an industry and sports journalism becoming, as well, an industry.

There is a very nice project which can be applied for Romania. Our country present right now a very nice option for increasing and improving awareness of public about sport and sport culture, too.

Short explanation for about the management issue will be the next. The issue of recognition of a sports journalism as a quality component of social life that can positively influence the sports and its perception by the population is omnipresent in contemporary society in Romania.

The sports journalism in Romanian language needs to regain its traditional role of the educator of the public opinion. The present situation in


sports journalism has two major problems. On the one hand, the mass media do not reveal the positive aspects of sports.

Journalist are constantly seeking some explanations for defeats, without dissecting from the technical point of view or consulting the rules, and consequently athletes gain a certain aversion to journalists. This relationship must be tempered and reinvented in that way that media should find their balanced status, be objective and treat analytically but in a professional manner all successes and defeats. In this way, a good relationship between the sports clubs, federations, athletes, coaches, referees and mass media will be established for a long term.

The previous being addressed mass media should concentrate on the second existing problem – low awareness of the population about the sports and sports culture. The familiarization of readers, viewers or listeners with the demanding performance environment, the beautiful world of competitions will reveal aspects of the sports that are not known now to the big part of the population.

If the audience will manage, with the unconditional support from mass media, to penetrate beyond the simple result of a sporting event, and understand the story and message of each competition and each athlete, the mass media may become the tool of a massive popularization of the sport, increasing the selection base.

Parents will be more likely to bring their children towards sports, if they know better and more about how to perform. In this way, the media must regain its position as a bridge between population and athletes, sharing fairly the information with benefits for both sides. A special attention should be paid to sports schools, considered by the author of this application, a strategic base for further development of the sports. Moreover, graduates who choose not to continue the participation in competitions must be harnessed in a different form and maintained in the system as referees, journalists, club managers, and in other functions complementary to sports Particular area of management might be concerned:

- strategic management; - marketing; - human resource; - financial; - event management.

Work methods chosen|:


- document analysis; - interviews; - Questionnaires; - case study; - literature reviews.

As a consequence of this research paper, I am expecting a better

collaboration between national sports federations and National Olympic and Sports Committee, improved awareness about cooperation possibilities with national Olympic forum for sports clubs and sports schools, enhanced partnership between NOSC and mass media. This research should result in organization of public symposiums for analysis of national and international sports events, and conclusions from these symposiums to be used for other events of the same kind in the future. If speaking about the 2016 Olympics, I hope that Romania will be able to prepare a team of valuable athletes that will win 15-20 medals.

The public perception of different sports branches must be realistic, and the degree of knowledge of the public must grow exponentially until then. In the long term, the possible organization of the Youth Winter Olympics in Brasov in 2020 should be promoted, making the population from Romania and Moldova appreciate the social, economic and sporting advantages induced by such a great event.

The main goal of all these actions, after all, is a positive social impact -if a majority of the population is occupied in sports, the degree of delinquency and crime will decrease, and social security and education will be positively impacted.

“ACKNOWLEDGMENT This paper has been financially supported within the project entitled „SOCERT. Knowledge society, dynamism through research”, contract number POSDRU/159/1.5/S/132406. This project is co-financed by European Social Fund through Sectoral Operational Programme for Human Resources Development 2007-2013. Investing in people!”

REVISTA ROMÂNĂ DE STATISTICĂ - SUPLIMENT ......suggestions regardless of the person’s location. Crowdsourcing is one model of using people’s ideas for improving everyday business,

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