Rethinking Urban-Rural and the Barriers Between Statistical and Programmatic Uses Michael Ratcliffe, Census Bureau John Cromartie, Economic Research Service.

Rethinking Urban-Rural and the Barriers Between

Statistical and Programmatic Uses

Michael Ratcliffe, Census Bureau

John Cromartie, Economic Research Service

Introduction

• The Census Bureau does not take programmatic uses into account when developing statistical geographic area concepts or when delineating areas.

• It is important to maintain this separation; we cannot allow concepts to be degraded by program-specific needs, desires, and local biases.

• But, recent experience has suggested that we should start a conversation about the interplay between statistical geography for data tabulation/presentation and uses related to policy making and program implementation.

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What we heard in response to the 2010 proposed urban area criteria

• Local planning agencies/transportation planners expressed concerns about changes to boundaries and criteria and impacts on long range planning

• Questions raised about the Census Bureau's urban area definitions and the way in which local and state planning groups define and perceive urban areas

• Desire for a closer relationship between the urban area concept and criteria and uses in programs and planning

• More outreach and discussion with groups using urban/rural definitions for long range planning and policy analysis

Urban and Rural in the United States

How do we define “urban” and “rural?”

• Classifications tend to be dichotomous:– Urban and Rural;– Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan– Rural/nonmetropolitan are residual categories

• Classifications tend to describe:– Form (settlement patterns); or– Function (economic and social relationships)

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Census Bureau’s Urban-Rural Classification

• The Census Bureau identifies and classifies urban and rural areas after each decennial census.

• Urban areas of at least 2,500 people have been identified since 1906.

• Urbanized areas of 50,000 or more people were first defined for the 1950 Census. Urban places of at least 2,500 people were identified outside urbanized areas. Urban clusters of 2,500 - 49,999 were first defined after Census 2000.

• The Census Bureau identifies urban and rural areas solely for the purpose of tabulating and presenting statistical data.

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Questions for consideration

• Do we define urban and rural areas solely for tabulation and dissemination of data about urban and rural populations?

• Or, to provide baseline definitions for use in policy analysis and planning?

• Are the categories and entities we define, and the criteria used to define them, adequate for planning and policy needs?

• How do we manage situations in which program-specific definitions create contradictory goals, comments on proposed criteria, and desired outcomes among local organizations in the same area?

Considerations for the Future

• Develop an urban-rural continuum identifying the variety of urban, suburban, exurban, and rural landscapes.– Rather than creating a new classification, is there a way to

leverage existing classifications to create a continuum?

• Identify functional relationships between urban areas.– Combined Urban Areas

• Identify urban sub-regions or subdivisions within larger agglomerations.

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Exurban development: rural Howard County, Maryland, Baltimore-Towson Metropolitan Statistical Area

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Functional ties between urban areas:

33% of workers residing in the Hartselle urban cluster worked within the Decatur urbanized area, according to Census 2000 data.

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Decatur, AL

Hartselle, AL

Daily commuting flow

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Large Urban Agglomerations:

Northeastern Megalopolis

Defining rural is a challenge for USDA

• We share a common image of rural—open countryside and small towns at some distance from major urban centers—but lack a common definition.

• Establishing a common definition is difficult…– drawing a line through a continuum– suburbs combine urban and rural elements – gentle gradations are a U.S. hallmark

• …and needlessly limiting– research on rural issues requires different perspectives– federal programs need to target different populations

• Dozens of definitions exist– Census Bureau– Office of Management and Budget– USDA– HUD, HHS, States, ngo’s, researchers

• BUT: All of the differences boil down to two questions:

1. For any given urban entity, where is the boundary?

2. What is the minimum population size for an entity to be considered urban?

Defining rural is a challenge for USDA

Question 1: For any given urban entity, where is the boundary?

Three concepts of urban lead to different boundaries:• Administrative: cities are legal entities defined

along municipal or other jurisdictional boundaries– Census Places

• Land-use: cities are densely-settled territory—the picture of settlement you get from an airplane– Census Urban Areas

• Economic: cities are labor markets—commuting areas extend well beyond densely settled cores– OMB Metro Areas

Question 1: For any given urban entity, where is the boundary?

Question 2: What is the minimum population size for an entity to be considered urban?

• Any rural definition includes some set of towns and villages below a chosen population threshold:

– Census Bureau: 2,500– USDA Rural Utilities Program: 10,000– USDA Rural Housing: 25,000– OMB: 50,000

Question 2: What is the minimum population size for an entity to be considered urban?

• Massive urbanization in the 20th Century dramatically increased the average size of cities and concentrated services into larger regional centers.

• Most rural areas are no longer economically organized around towns of 2,500, but are more typically centered around Micropolitan Areas

• This argues for higher urban-size thresholds compared with 100 years ago, when higher levels of central-place services were available in smaller towns.

Question 2: What is the minimum population size for an entity to be considered urban?

• Research offers limited guidance on choosing an appropriate threshold—not enough work applying central place theory

• USDA has adjusted eligibility thresholds upward over the years

• Census urban-size threshold (2,500) unchanged from horse-and-buggy days

Question 2: What is the minimum population size for an entity to be considered urban?

Conclusions

• Potential to improve efficiency of federal programs

• Multiple definitions serve multiple purposes

• Choices should be driven by goals:– Tracking sprawl– Studying economic impacts– Providing rural housing subsidies– Making rural business loans