Retail and Leisure Needs Assessment, November 2021

Royal Borough of Kensington & Chelsea

Retail and Leisure Needs Assessment

November 2021

urbanshape.co.uk Caroline Marginson BSc (Hons) MA MRTPI Director

[email protected]

020 3745 8987 / 07940 571 818

Registered in England number 10720180

mailto:[email protected]

Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea Retail and Leisure Needs Assessment and Town Centre Study, November 2021

www.urbanshape.co.uk 1

Contents

Section 1 | Introduction | 02

Section 2 | Policy Framework and Legislative Change | 05

Section 3 | National Retail & Leisure Trends | 18

Section 4 | Sub-Regional Context | 28

Section 5 | Knightsbridge | 39

Section 6 | King’s Road (East) | 45

Section 7 | Kensington High Street | 51

Section 8 | Earls Court Road | 60

Section 9 | Fulham Road (West) | 67

Section 10 | King’s Road (West) | 73

Section 11 | Brompton Cross | 78

Section 12 | South Kensington | 82

Section 13 | Notting Hill Gate | 88

Section 14 | Portobello Road | 95

Section 15 | Westbourne Grove | 101

Section 16 | Quantitative Need Forecasts | 106

Section 17 | Leisure Assessment | 118

Section 18 | Conclusions and Recommendations | 131

Appendix 1 Convenience Goods Need Forecasts

Appendix 2 Comparison Goods Need Forecasts

Appendix 3 Convenience Goods Floorspace Performance

http://www.urbanshape.co.uk/



1. Introduction

1.1 Urban Shape and Hatch have been instructed by the Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea

(RBKC) to undertake a Retail and Leisure Needs Assessment and Town Centre Study. The previous

evidence base is now out-of-date in light of recent planning reform, continued economic

fluctuations, and the fast paced evolution of the high street. It is timely to revisit and refresh the

borough’s retail and town centre strategy. This up-to-date assessment forms a key part of the

evidence base in support of the new Local Plan, forecasting floorspace need for retail and wider

town centre uses, and informing the future function and composition of the borough’s town

centres.

1.2 This study comes at a pivotal time for the high street, with the retail and leisure sector undergoing

a period of unprecedented change. Since the publication of the previous (full) Retail Needs Study

in 2008, town centres have had to evolve to become more than simply a place to shop, presenting

themselves as multi-purpose ‘destinations’. For many this is work in progress. Key contributory

factors to this evolution have included the continued rise of online shopping and home delivery

dining, and ongoing economic uncertainty triggered by Brexit and now the Covid-19 global health

pandemic. There is much optimism for the future of our high streets, but the need for a robust

town centre strategy is more crucial now than ever.

1.3 This evidence base includes two separate reports, which should be read in conjunction with each

other:

▪ Retail and Leisure Needs Assessment, prepared by Urban Shape

▪ Future Town Centres Report, prepared by Hatch

Retail and Leisure Needs Assessment

1.4 This study provides RBKC with an up-to-date and comprehensive understanding of the current

health and performance of the retail and leisure offer within the existing network of town centres,

sets out current and future needs for additional floorspace to the period 2043, and details robust

strategic and detail planning policy recommendations. The study meets the policy requirements of

the NPPF and PPG in the preparation of the Council’s development plan.

1.5 Our terms of reference are to:

▪ Establish the extent to which the current retail and leisure provision satisfies the level and

nature of consumer demand within the catchment – both qualitatively and quantitatively;

▪ Identify the scale and nature of additional convenience and comparison retail provision that

may be appropriate across the study area to the period 2043, taking into consideration changes

to population and forecast retail expenditure;

▪ Assess the scope for new retail and leisure development and the potential to accommodate this

sequentially across the borough;

▪ Assess the appropriateness of the existing development plan policy approach for retail and main

town centre uses, and provide recommendations to inform emerging policies for the new Local

Plan.




1.6 In addition to on-site and desk-based research, further evidence is provided by way of a household

telephone survey of shopping and leisure patterns across the Borough, as well as adjacent

surrounding areas where residents may travel to meet their shopping and leisure needs. This is

referred to throughout the report as the ‘survey area’. The household telephone survey was

undertaken by NEMS Market Research in February 2021. The survey questionnaire and format was

agreed with the Council, and the survey area was also circulated to neighbouring authorities under

Duty to Co-Operate for comment.

Figure 1.1: RBKC Household Telephone Interview Survey

Future Town Centres Report

1.7 The Future Town Centres Report, prepared by Hatch, forms a separate accompanying document

providing complementary insight and analysis. It considers the challenges that town centres are

facing; the performance of the borough’s town centres; the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities

and threats in each of the individual town centres; and provides recommendations on how the

Council could support them to adapt and diversify, indicating future identity and characterisation.

A key complementary theme running through the report relates to non-retail uses that could be

introduced to improve the resilience of the borough’s town centres alongside retail. Some of the

recommendations and reflections provided are drawn upon and included in the Retail and Leisure

Needs Assessment.




Report Structure

1.8 The Retail and Leisure Assessment is structured as follows:

▪ Section 2 summarises the national and local planning policies relevant to retail and town

centres across RBKC, and discusses recent legislative changes to the planning system.

▪ Section 3 considers the national context in terms of economic and sectoral trends.

▪ Section 4 considers the wider sub-regional context, analysing shopping patterns and market

share across RBKC and the wider sub-region, and providing comparisons with previous

evidence base studies in order to identify trends.

▪ Section 5-15 provides detailed town centre health checks of the 12 higher order town centres

in RBKC:

o Knightsbridge International Centre

o Knightsbridge International Centre;

o King’s Road (East) Major Centre;

o Kensington High Street Major Centre;

o Earls Court Road District Centre;

o Fulham Road (West) District Centre;

o King’s Road (West) District Centre;

o Brompton Cross District Centre;

o South Kensington District Centre;

o Notting Hill Gate District Centre;

o Portobello Road Special District Centre;

o Westbourne Grove Special District Centre.

▪ Section 16 sets out the quantitative ‘need’ for additional convenience and comparison goods

retail floorspace to the period 2043.

▪ Section 17 draws the analysis from both the ‘Retail and Leisure Assessment’ and ‘Future Town

Centres Report’ together and sets out our conclusions and recommendations.




2. Policy Context and Legislative Change

2.1 In this section, we summarise the points of relevance from national and local planning policy,

which provide the context and framework for the remainder of this study. In recent months there

have been sweeping amendments to planning legislation which have direct and significant

implications for emerging development plans and detailed development management policies.

This section notes the most recent publication of the NPPF, and outlines the relevant key changes

to the Use Classes Order and Permitted Development Rights.

National Planning Policy Framework (July 2021)

2.2 The Government published the new version of the NPPF in July 2021, confirming in a statement

that the intention is to ‘place greater emphasis on beauty, place-making, the environment, and

sustainable development and underlines the importance of local design codes’. There are no

changes of relevance to retail and town centres, which continues to ensure the vitality of town

centres, placing them at the heart of their communities, and encouraging a positive approach to

their growth, management and adaptation.

2.3 In order to be considered ‘sound’, Local Plans should be positively prepared, justified, deliverable

and consistent with national policy. The NPPF is a material consideration in planning decisions.

2.4 Paragraph 53 and 54 of the newly published NPPF provides new guidance for the use of Article 4

Directions, in the context of newly introduced Permitted Development. Changes to planning

legislation, and the reasoning behind these new NPPF paragraphs, is discussed in more detail later

in this section, but we quote paragraph 53 and 54 of the NPPF as follows:

“53. The use of Article 4 directions to remove national permitted development

rights should:

▪ where they relate to change from non-residential use to residential use, be

limited to situations where an Article 4 direction is necessary to avoid wholly

unacceptable adverse impacts (this could include the loss of the essential core

of a primary shopping area which would seriously undermine its vitality and

viability, but would be very unlikely to extend to the whole of a town centre);

▪ in other cases, be limited to situations where an Article 4 direction is necessary

to protect local amenity or the well-being of the area (this could include the

use of Article 4 directions to require planning permission for the demolition of

local facilities);

▪ in all cases, be based on robust evidence, and apply to the smallest

geographical area possible.

54. Similarly, planning conditions should not be used to restrict national permitted

development rights unless there is clear justification to do so.”

2.5 Section 7 seeks to ensure the vitality of town centres, emphasising that planning policies and

decisions should support the role that town centres play at the heart of local communities, with a

positive approach taken to their growth, management and adaptation.




2.6 Section 7 emphasises that planning policies are encouraged to seek a series of outcomes relating to

the long-term vitality and viability of the hierarchy of town centres, the extent of primary shopping

areas and the location of sufficient development opportunity sites. Local authorities are

encouraged to define a network and hierarchy of town centres and to promote their long-term

vitality and viability, facilitating them to grow and diversify in a way that can respond to rapid

changes in the retail and leisure industries and reflecting their distinctive characters. The NPPF

states that planning policies should also recognise the benefits of residential development and

town centre living in ensuring the vitality of centres.

2.7 In respect of Development Management, paragraph 87 of the NPPF (as revised) states that a

sequential assessment is required for planning applications for ‘main town centre uses’ (which

include retail) that are not in an existing centre and are not in accordance with an up to date Local

Plan. Proposals for main town centre uses should be located in town centre locations, then in edge

of centre locations and only if suitable sites are not available should out of centre sites be

considered. Paragraph 88 adds that when considering edge of centre and out of centre proposals,

preference should be given to accessible sites which are well connected to the town centre.

2.8 Paragraph 90 of the NPPF confirms that when assessing applications for retail and leisure

development outside of town centres, which are not in accordance with an up-to-date

development plan, LPAs should require an impact assessment if the development is over a

proportionate, locally set threshold. If there is no locally set floorspace threshold, the default

threshold is 2,500 sq m of gross floorspace. Impact assessments are required to assess:

▪ the impact of the proposal on existing, committed and planned public and private

investment in a centre or centres in the catchment area of the proposal; and

▪ the impact of the proposal on town centre vitality and viability, including local

consumer choice and trade in the town centre and the wider retail catchment (as

applicable to the scale and nature of the scheme).

2.9 The NPPF directs that where an application fails to satisfy the sequential test or is likely to have a

significant adverse impact on one or more of the considerations in paragraph 90, it should be

refused.

Planning Practice Guidance (PPG) (2014)

2.10 In March 2014 the Department for Communities and Local Government (DCLG) launched online

Planning Practice Guidance (PPG). Town centres and retail guidance was last updated in

September 2020.

2.11 Although it does not constitute a statement of Government policy, it provides technical guidance

on how to prepare a robust evidence base and how to assess the impact of proposals for main

town centre uses. The web-based resource also provides guidance on how to assess and plan to

meet the needs of main town centre uses in full through the production of a positive vision or

strategy for town centres.

2.12 The guidance provides additional detail on applying the sequential and impact test, and whilst the

NPPF has removed reference to shopping ‘frontages’, the PPG confirms that authorities may,

where appropriate, wish to define primary and secondary retail frontages where their use can be




justified in supporting the vitality and viability of particular centres. These frontage allocations

would be in addition to Primary Shopping Areas.

2.13 The PPG confirms that the impact test only applies to proposals exceeding 2,500 square metres

gross of floorspace, unless a different locally appropriate threshold is set by the local planning

authority.

Development Plan

London Plan (March 2021)

2.14 In March 2021, the Mayor adopted the London Plan. It is a strategic spatial planning document

setting the London wide context within which individual London Borough’s must set their local

planning policies. The London Plan forms part of the Development Plan for the purposes of

development control and planning decisions, and local policy frameworks must be ‘in general

conformity’.

i) Good Growth and Opportunity Areas

2.15 The concept of ‘Good Growth’ – growth that is socially and economically inclusive and

environmentally sustainable – underpins the Plan and ensures a focus on sustainable development.

In ‘Planning for Good Growth’, paragraph 1.0.10 confirms that planning for mixed-use

developments in all parts of London will spread the success of London’s economy and create

stronger communities where everyone feels welcome.

2.16 Policy GG1 seeks to build strong and inclusive communities, stating that development must provide

access to good quality services and amenities that accommodate, encourage and strengthen

communities, increasing active participation and social integration, and addressing social isolation.

The policy adds that development must also promote the crucial role of town centres, and plan for

places that provide important opportunities for face-to-face contact and social interaction during

the daytime, evening and night-time.

2.17 Policy GG2 of the London Plan states that in order to create successful, mixed-use places that make

the best use of land, priorities for development should be Opportunity Areas, brownfield land,

surplus public sector land, sites which are well-connected by existing or planned Tube and rail

stations, sites within and on the edge of town centres, and small sites.

2.18 The London Plan identifies a total of 48 ‘Ongoing Opportunity Areas’ across Greater London

(London Plan Policy SD1), including two which fall within RBKC – Earls Court/West Kensington and

Kensal Canalside. The London Plan states that the Opportunity Areas are identified as significant

locations with development capacity to accommodate new housing, commercial development and

infrastructure (of all types), linked to existing or potential improvements in public transport

connectivity and capacity.

ii) The role of town centres

2.19 Policy SD6 of the London Plan sets out the Mayor’s approach to promoting and enhancing the

vitality and viability of London’s varied town centres. The policy emphasises that town centres will

continue to be promoted and enhanced as ‘strong, resilient, accessible, inclusive hubs with a

diverse range of uses including main town centre uses, night-time economy, civic, community,

social and residential uses’. Town centres are identified as suitable locations for mixed-use and

housing led intensification, and primary locations for commercial activity beyond the CAZ. Policy




SD6 encourages the strengthening of the role of town centres, creating a sense of place and local

identity in the capital.

2.20 Policy SD6 acknowledges that the adaptation and diversification of town centres should be

supported in response to the challenges and opportunities presented by multi-channel shopping

and changes in technology and consumer behaviour. Policy SD6 also places particular emphasis on

promoting town and edge of centre sites for mixed-use or residential development, managing

vibrant daytime, evening and night-time activities in town centres, and directing tourist

infrastructure, attractions and hotels to town centre locations.

iii) Development principles

2.21 The London Plan takes a strong town centres first approach, confirmed under Policy SD7, which

reflects the approach of the NPPF in requiring applications for development not within a defined

centre to demonstrate compliance with the sequential and impact tests.

2.22 Policy SD7, ‘Town Centres’, states that when considering development proposals, boroughs should

take a town centres first approach. Boroughs are directed to apply the sequential test to

applications for main town centre uses, requiring them to be located in town centres. If no

suitable town centre sites are available or expected to become available within a reasonable

period, consideration should be given to sites on the edge of centres that are, or can be, well

integrated with the existing centre, local walking and cycle networks, and public transport.

Applications that fail the sequential test should be refused.

2.23 Policy SD7 requires an impact assessment on proposals for new, or extensions to existing, edge or

out-of-centre development for retail, leisure and – contrary to advice set out in the NPPF – office

uses that are not in accordance with the Development Plan. Applications that are likely to have a

significant adverse impact should be refused.

2.24 Policy SD7 adds that boroughs should:

▪ realise the full potential of existing out-of-centre retail and leisure parks to deliver

housing intensification through redevelopment;

▪ assess the need for main town centre uses, forecasting future need;

▪ allocate sites to meet need arising; review and define town centre boundaries and

shopping frontages;

▪ identify centres that have scope to accommodate new commercial development

and higher density housing as per growth potential indicators (Annex 1);

▪ identify sites suitable for intensification, which may include supermarket sites,

surface car parks or edge of centre retail/leisure parks, town centre shopping

frontages which are surplus to demand, and redevelopment of low-density town

centre buildings which are not of heritage value; and

▪ support flexibility for temporary or ‘meanwhile’ uses of vacant properties.

2.25 Policy HC6 aims to support the night time economy by promoting, improving and diversifying the

night-time economy. The policy also recognises adverse consequences and recommends local

authorities address the cumulative impact of high concentrations of licensed premises on anti-

social behaviour, noise pollution, health and wellbeing and other issues for residents and nearby




uses, and seek ways to diversify and manage these areas. The policy recommends an integrated

management approach.

iv) Town centre network

2.26 Policy SD8 of the London Plan sets out the approach to the management of the town centre

network across Greater London, and is supported by a classification of each centre in the town

centre hierarchy at Annex 1. The London hierarchy of centres is headed by two ‘International’

centres (West End, Knightsbridge) and 14 Metropolitan Centres, followed by ‘Major’ and ‘District’

Centres, and locations which fall within CAZ Retail Frontage. The London Plan highlights that the

classification of International, Metropolitan and Major Town Centres can only be changed through

the London Plan.

2.27 Policy SD8 states that International, Metropolitan and Major Centres should be the focus for

higher-order comparison goods retailing; and district centres should focus on the ‘consolidation of

a viable range of functions’, particularly convenience goods retailing, leisure, local employment and

workspace. District centres should also ‘address the challenges of new forms of retailing and

securing opportunities to realise their potential for higher density mixed-use residential

development and improvements to their environment’.

2.28 The following centres in RBKC are identified in the London Plan centre hierarchy (Annex 1):

▪ ‘International’ centres – Knightsbridge;

▪ ‘Major’ centres – Kensington High Street and King’s Road (East);

▪ ‘District’ centres – Brompton Cross, Earls Court Road, Fulham Road, King’s Road (West), Notting Hill Gate, Portobello Road and South Kensington.

2.29 No potential hierarchical changes to town centres in the borough are identified.

v) Strategic Areas for Regeneration

2.30 Those parts of Greater London which fall within the 20% most deprived areas in England (based on

the Index of Multiple Deprivation) are identified in the DLP as ‘Strategic Areas for Regeneration’. In

a number of cases, Strategic Areas for Regeneration overlap with town centres - in RBKC, centres

which fall within a Strategic Area for Regeneration are Earls Court Road, King’s Road (West) and

Portobello Road.

Royal Borough of Kensington & Chelsea Local Plan, September 2019

2.31 The adopted 2019 Local Plan sets out policies and proposals for future development and spatial

planning requirements to 2028. The Local Plan highlights the borough’s diverse character and

vitality. Rather than being ‘just’ a residential suburb, the borough supports world class town

centres, museums, hospitals and cultural events such as the Notting Hill Carnival that give the

borough its international and national reputation. These attract large numbers of visitors from

beyond the borough boundary, representing a significant ‘economic inflow’ substantially greater

than most London Borough’s.

2.32 Chapter 19 seeks to protect the borough’s finely-grained and world class mix of uses such as shops,

businesses, arts and cultural facilities. These are noted as being at risk from decline, particularly

from the pressures of higher value residential development. Policy CO2 sets out the strategic

objective for fostering vitality:




“…the quality of life of our predominantly residential borough is enhanced by a wide

variety of cultural, creative and commercial uses which can significantly contribute to the

well-being of residents and to the capital’s role as a world city.”

2.33 The Local Plan confirms that most of these cultural, creative and commercial uses will continue to

be concentrated within the borough’s higher order town centres. Policy CF1, ‘Location of New

Shop Uses’, commits the Council to ensuring vital and viable town centres through a town centre

first approach to new retail floorspace (see next page for full policy).

2.34 Paragraph 19.3.10 sets out the borough’s ‘higher order’ town centre hierarchy as follows:

▪ International Centre: Knightsbridge;

▪ Major Centres: King’s Road (East) and Kensington High Street;

▪ District Centres: South Kensington, King’s Road (West), Notting Hill Gate, Fulham

Road (Fulham Road (West) in the London Plan), Brompton Cross (Fulham Road

(East) in the London Plan) and Earl’s Court Road.

▪ Special District Centres: Portobello Road and Westbourne Grove.

2.35 These higher order town centres are the main shopping areas in the borough, offering both

comparison and day-to-day convenience shopping for residents and for those visiting the borough

or working within it. The Council has drawn up visions for each of the borough’s higher order

centres, as set out within the Places section of the Local Plan (Chapters 5-18). Town centre specific

policy is set out in this report within each respective town centre section (Section 5-15 of this




report). Portobello Road and Westbourne Grove have been designated by the Council as separate

Special District Centres to reflect their unique function in having both a substantial local and

international draw.

2.36 Policy CF2 sets out how the Council will promote vital and viable town centres across the borough:

2.37 Policy CF3 aims to secure, encourage and protect the diversity of uses within town centres, driven

by the intention to protect high proportions of Use Class A1 shop floorspace.




2.38 Policy CF4 recognises that street markets are a form of shopping greatly valued by many of the

borough’s residents. The Local Plan emphasises that they are an integral part of the borough’s

retail offer and play a vital role in maintaining the special character and the diversity of the

borough’s centres. The Local Plan supports the expansion of the Portobello Road street market

north up to Golborne Road, assisting in increased footfall in this area.

Supplementary Planning Documents

2.39 This Design Guide is a Supplementary Planning Document on the design of shopfronts within the

Royal Borough. This guidance is applicable to shopfronts in the general sense, including the

frontages of restaurants, public houses, banks, estate agents and other similar uses which occupy

the ground floor of buildings. It is relevant to all shopfronts within the Royal Borough.

2.40 This Design Guide will ensure that shopfronts throughout the Borough contribute positively to the

identity and quality of our built heritage and streetscapes. High-quality shopfronts will be required

in all our town centres, high streets and shopping parades. As required by Policy CL2 of the Core

Strategy, shopfronts must be of the highest architectural and urban design quality, taking

opportunities to improve the quality and character of buildings and the area and the way it

functions.

2.41 This document does not promote any particular style or act as a blueprint from which specific

designs may be taken. The principal aim is to provide design guidance to enable applicants to

sensitively restore, modify or construct new shopfronts. It does not however, remove the need for

skilled professional architectural advice.

▪ Shopfront Design Guidelines SPD (2011): prepared to ensure that shopfronts

throughout the Borough contribute positively to the identity and quality of the

built heritage and streetscapes. The principal aim is to provide design guidance to

enable applicants to sensitively restore, modify or construct new shopfronts;

▪ Earls Court and West Kensington Opportunity Area SPD (2012): Discussed in

Section 8, Earls Court;

▪ Notting Hill SPD (2015): Discussed in Section 13, Notting Hill;

▪ Kensal Canalside Opportunity Area SPD (2021): Located in the far north of the

borough, Kensal Canalside is the largest brownfield site in RBKC. The SPD

identifies the opportunity to transform the area into a high-quality, well-

connected, attractive and sustainable Canalside neighbourhood for people to live




in, work in and visit. The neighbourhood will bring with it a minimum of 3,500

new homes and 10,000 sqm of office space providing new 2,000 new jobs.

Legislative Change: Use Classes Order

2.42 In October 2018, the Government published a consultation into a series of proposed planning

reforms designed to speed up and simplify the planning system; the focus of which was on

supporting the high street and increasing the delivery of new homes. The consultation recognised

the changing and evolving nature of high streets and town centres across the country, and invited

responses on a variety of development management methods which Councils could use to

promote greater flexibility.

2.43 Part 1 of the consultation included proposals in respect of new and amended Permitted

Development (PD) rights and changes to use classes, including to support the regeneration of the

high street and to extend existing buildings upwards to create new homes. The Government

proposed new PD rights to allow existing premises in typical high street uses to change to a wider

range of uses, allowing more leisure and community uses such as gyms, libraries, health care and

office use as well as homes.

2.44 With the rise of internet shopping, and the change in how people use the high street, the

consultation highlighted that it was timely to consider how the operation of the Use Classes Order

can support greater flexibility. It noted the need to support the modernisation of the high street

and enable businesses to adapt to changes in consumer demands.

2.45 The Government published their response to the consultation in May 2019, which confirmed the

intention to move away from a suggested single use class which would merge A1, A2 and A3. The

government response paper stated that ‘more than half of the 276 responses agreed that changes

to the A use classes would support the high street [and] there was considerable support to simplify




the A1 use class to accommodate new and emerging retail models’. There was, however, concern

that:

“…merging the A1, A2 and A3 use classes would enable change to restaurant use

without any local consideration of the potential impacts from longer opening hours

and increased noise and odours. It could lead to a proliferation and increased

concentration of restaurants, including fast food restaurants, in an area with an

impact on the health of local residents and local amenity. There was also a concern

that it would limit the ability of local communities to shape their high streets as set

out in local or neighbourhood plans.”

2.46 Rather than the far-reaching amendments proposed as part of the consultation paper, and in

response to the consultation, the Government announced that it would only amend the A1 (shops)

use class to ensure it captured current and future retail models and include clarification on the

ability of (A) use classes to diversify and incorporate ancillary uses.

2.47 Shortly afterwards however, as a consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic, the Government decided

to go further and introduce more wide-reaching reforms to the Use Classes – without further

public consultation. This was a specific and swift response to the economic impact of Coronavirus

on high streets and those premises in A1 and A3 in particular. In force from 1st September 2020,

new planning regulations revoked parts A and D of the existing use classes order and introduced a

new ‘commercial, business and service’ Use Class E. In relation to retail and main town centre

uses, the changes are as follows:

▪ New Class E includes:

o Shops (former A1)

o Provision of financial and professional services (former A2)

o Sale of food and drink consumption on premises, ‘cafes and restaurants’ (former A3)

o Indoor sport, recreation, fitness (gyms) (former D2)

o Provision of medical or health services (former D1)

o Creche, day nursery or day centre (former D1)

o Offices, research and development, light industrial (former B1a, b and c)

▪ Former A4 (drinking establishments, public houses/wine bars) and A5 (hot food takeaway)

uses to become defined as Sui Generis.

▪ Former D2 cinemas, concert halls/live music venues, bingo halls and dance halls to become

defined as Sui Generis.

2.48 A series of more protected community uses have been moved into a new Class F, including isolated

small shops in rural locations, public halls, the provision of education and libraries.

Legislative Change: Permitted Development

2.49 Following consultation in December 2020, the Government confirmed on 31 March 2021 that a

new permitted development (PD) right to allow the change of use from any use, or mix of uses,

from the Commercial, Business and Service use class (Class E) to residential use (Class C3) will be




introduced under Class MA of the Town and Country Planning (General Permitted Development

etc.) (England) Order 2021.

2.50 The government considers that the announced package of measures will help support the creation

of much-needed homes while also giving high streets a new lease of life, enabling them to adapt

and thrive – ‘transforming unused buildings and making the most of brownfield land’.

2.51 The new PD rights, which commenced on 1 August 2021, allow unused commercial buildings – or

parts of buildings – to be granted permission for residential use via a fast track prior approval

process. Councils are only able to assess prior approval applications on a narrow range of specific

considerations including: flooding, noise from commercial premises, adequate light to habitable

rooms and impact on a conservation area, for example. The PD rights include the following

restrictions:

▪ a vacancy requirement that will ensure the building changing use has been vacant for a

continuous period of 3 months before the date of the application to protect successful

businesses in existing use.

▪ the building must have been in a commercial, business, or service use for at least two

continuous years previously.

▪ a size limit of 1,500 square metres of floorspace applies, to avoid the loss of larger units. The

permitted development right does not apply if more 1,500sqm of cumulative floorspace is to be

converted. This is significantly more than the 150sqm permitted under Class M retail to

residential at present, but a significant new restriction for office to residential change of use via

permitted development.

Article 4 Directions

2.52 An article 4 direction is made by the local planning authority. It restricts the scope of permitted

development rights either in relation to a particular area or site, or a particular type of

development anywhere in the authority’s area. Where an article 4 direction is in effect, a planning

application may be required for development that would otherwise have been permitted

development.

2.53 It is possible to introduce an Article 4 Direction to prevent permitted change of use from Use Class

E to residential use. In a statement made by Robert Jenrick, Secretary of State for the Ministry of

Housing, Communities and Local Government, on 1st July 2021 it was highlighted that “in very

specific circumstances, local authorities can make Article 4 directions to suspend individual

permitted development rights, when justified by robust evidence, [but added that it must be] used

in a highly targeted way to protect the thriving core of historic high street areas, but does not

unnecessarily restrict the ability to deliver much needed housing through national permitted

development rights.

2.54 The statement confirmed the introduction of the new paragraph 53 and 54 of the National

Planning Policy Framework (see above), and encourages Councils to ‘recognise the value to housing

supply and increasing resident town centre footfall from supporting ‘flats above shops’; for

example’. The Government consider this to be important to support mixed and flexible high

streets, to deliver additional homes more easily, and to support jobs in the construction industry,

while increasing demand for local high street services through new high street homes.


https://historicengland.org.uk/advice/hpg/historic-environment/article4directions/

https://historicengland.org.uk/advice/hpg/hpr-definitions/l/536333/

https://historicengland.org.uk/advice/hpg/hpr-definitions/p/536385/

https://historicengland.org.uk/advice/hpg/hpr-definitions/p/536385/



2.55 The statement encourages local authorities to carefully target any proposed Article 4 areas,

focusing on the Primary Shopping Area supported by robust evidence to justify the Article 4

direction and the area it covers.

Summary

▪ The NPPF advocates a ‘town centres first’ approach, and requires planning policies to positively

promote competitive town centre environments and manage the growth of centres over the

plan period. The NPPF encourages LPA’s to recognise that town centres are the heart of their

communities and to pursue policies which protect their health and vitality.

▪ The London Plan (2021) aims to build strong and inclusive communities, and emphasises that

development must also promote the crucial role of town centres as places that provide

important opportunities for face-to-face contact and social interaction during the daytime,

evening and night-time. The London Plan encourages the strengthening of the role of town

centres, and acknowledges that the adaptation and diversification of town centres should be

supported in response to changes in technology and consumer behaviour.

▪ The London Plan also promotes higher density mixed-use or residential development in and on

the edge of town centres – where suitable; and notes that tourist infrastructure should be

directed to town centre locations. There are two London Plan Opportunity Areas in RBKC

including Kensal Canalside and Earls Court/West Kensington; and three town centres fall within

Strategic Areas for Regeneration, including Earls Court Road, King’s Road (West) and Portobello

Road.

▪ The London Plan endorses the application of the sequential and impact test, but – contrary to

the NPPF – also requires an impact assessment on proposals for new, or extensions to existing,

edge or out-of-centre office uses [that are not in accordance with the Development Plan] – in

addition to retail and leisure uses.

▪ The Local Plan emphasises the key attributes and role of the wide variety of cultural, creative

and commercial uses significantly contributing to the capital’s role as a world city. Local plan

policy emphasises the town centre first approach to retail floorspace, and policies set out how

the Council will promote vital and viable town centres across the borough. Policy also aims to

secure, encourage and protect the diversity of uses within town centres. This is driven by the

intention to protect high proportions of Use Class A1 shop floorspace, which is now somewhat

out of date in light of recent planning legislation.

▪ There are four relevant SPD’s including the Shopfront Design Guidelines SPD (2011); the Earls

Court and West Kensington Opportunity Area SPD (2012); the Notting Hill SPD (2015); and the

Kensal Canalside Opportunity Area SPD (2021) (the largest brownfield site in RBKC).

▪ In force from 1st September 2020, new planning regulations revoked parts A and D of the

existing use classes order and introduced a new ‘commercial, business and service’ Use Class E,

incorporating former A1, A2 and A3 retail uses. Former A4 (drinking establishments, public

houses/wine bars) and A5 (hot food takeaway) uses and D2 cinemas, concert halls/live music

venues, bingo halls and dance halls are now defined as Sui Generis. Isolated rural shops are

protected under new Use Class F2(a).




▪ A new permitted development (PD) right to allow the change of use from any use, or mix of

uses, from the Commercial, Business and Service use class (Class E) to residential use (Class C3)

will take effect on 1 August 2021. This applies to ‘unused’ buildings that have been vacant for 3

months, are no larger than 1,500 sq m, and were previously used for at least 2 years for

commercial, business or service use.




3. National Retail and Leisure Trends

3.1 Consumer and economic trends in the retail and leisure sector have important implications on the

formulation of planning and spatial strategies and the future vitality and viability of each individual

town centre across the UK. We provide a detailed insight in this section, drawing out the key

points of relevance for town centre planning across RBKC.

3.2 Trends in recent years have been well documented. They closely follow global economic

fluctuations, growth in on-line shopping/multi-channel retailing; changes in the property and space

requirements of retail operators; evolution towards multi-dimensional town centres; the growth of

the commercial leisure sector; and changes in the convenience goods sector with the growth of

discount retailers and more varied food shopping habits. Sectoral analysis and published evidence

confirm that town centres will need to continue to evolve and adapt to remain vital and viable

locations.

3.3 As highlighted in the introduction, this study was finalised in February 2020 just one month before

the Covid-19 pandemic shut high streets across the UK. The longer term impact of Covid-19 on

wider society and our town centres is still uncertain, but it is widely accepted that town and city

centres will bounce back to varying degrees, and that Covid-19 has accelerated trends and

challenges facing our high streets. In this section, we provide an update to those trends identified

in the 2020 Study, focusing on the implications of the Covid-19 pandemic.

3.4 As highlighted in the introduction, this study was undertaken during 2021 and the ongoing the

Covid-19 pandemic. In March 2020, lockdown shut our high streets overnight, with no timeline in

place for re-opening. The longer term impact of Covid-19 on wider society and our town centres is

still uncertain, but it is widely accepted that town and city centres will bounce back to varying

degrees, and that Covid-19 has accelerated trends and challenges facing our high streets.

The Evolving Role of the Town Centre

3.5 Retail will continue to be an important footfall driver in town centres, and whilst high streets are

evolving, the role of retail and retail operators should continue to form an important element to

any town centre strategy moving forwards. Nevertheless, trends and the need to inject life into

our high streets have introduced new, multi-dimensional elements to town centres which should

be promoted and incorporated alongside retail into emerging town centre strategies. These can be

summarised as follows:

▪ The development of an ‘experience’ for visitors who are increasingly seeking to combine retail

and leisure activities as part of a single ‘going out’ trip. Town centres must provide an

attractive experience for visitors which the internet is unable to match. This might include

specialist markets, independent cinemas, street food and seasonal events, for example.

▪ Town centres acting as genuine hubs for their communities, and the need to create a vibrant

social, commercial and cultural destination. Uses might include cultural space, co-working

space, space for small and medium-sized enterprises (SME’s), community facilities including

libraries, education space, community halls/meeting venues, and health centres.

▪ Larger scale ‘destination’ uses including conference centres, hotels, offices, cultural and

performance venues.




▪ Growth in town centre living and residential space/student accommodation – delivering

footfall in the evenings and at weekends as well as during the daytime. A town centre

strategy will require consideration of noise, environmental health and licensing hours in order

to consider residential amenity alongside a supported evening economy.

3.6 Uncertainty around the future of our town centres and observations around how they are evolving

has been taking place for some years. In December 2018, the Government published ‘The High

Street Report’, setting out the findings of the ‘High Streets Expert Panel’ which was established

earlier in 2018. The Panel, Chaired by Sir John Timpson, sought to identify the key issues facing

high streets and town centres, and advise on the best practical measures which the Government

can take to help. In introducing the report, Sir John stated:

“Town centres are evolving, and retail will not return to the high streets that

existed 10 or 20 years ago. A combination of internet shopping, the convenience

of out of town retailing and an exceptional number of well-established retail

formats reaching the end of their commercial life, has led to a marked increase in

empty shops and a decline in footfall.

In completing this report, I have more hope for the future of our town centres

than when we first started gathering evidence.”

3.7 He added that throughout their report, they use the term ‘town centre’ rather than ‘high street’

because their recommendations are not just about shops and shopping. The town centre of the

future should attract local people to take part in a variety of activities – including dining, leisure

and sport, culture and the arts, entertainment, medical services, and many more uses. They should

also contain business premises, offices, and residential including affordable housing.

3.8 Instructed by ‘Key Cities Group’, consultants ‘Infusion’ were asked to ‘review the current state of

play across our town and city centres’. The 2019 report starts by highlighting that over the course

of the last decade, the British High Street has faced some of its biggest challenges in history. From

a major economic downturn, through new retail methods and in conjunction with already-ongoing

shifts in consumer spending and visiting patterns, some of the country’s most recognisable names

have disappeared from our city centres. Many more major retailers were identified as facing huge

difficulties and consequently undertaking seismic shifts in order to maintain their viability.

3.9 The report presents a strong position statement – ‘with the retail sector undergoing such major

change, there is a very real threat to the existing model underpinning the vibrancy and

sustainability of our city centres’. It emphasises that the retail sector has historically anchored

much of our central area floor space, particularly at the visible and impactful ground floor level,

and generated the bulk of footfall. With the convenience of newer methods of shopping likely to

outweigh the convenience of central area shopping for the foreseeable future, it concludes that

city centres can no longer rely on retail to be relevant.

3.10 The report states that central areas need to be diverse in the way their space is used to maintain

their vibrancy, and activity in centres cannot be confined to daytimes. Ideally, town and city

centres should not only be locations people shop in, but also eat in, drink in, work in and live in.

The role of retail is still relevant and important, but the report concludes that ‘as well as town




centres being a focal point for retail, they need to become areas in which people live, work and

spend their leisure time’.

Economic Trends

3.11 Since the 2008 and 2016 Retail Studies were published, the UK’s 2016 decision to leave the

European Union has become an influencing factor in forecasts of economic growth. The UK

economy slowed during 2019, sliding to a 7 year low by the end of the year, household spending

growth slowed to an 8 year low of 1.2% in 2019, income growth was disappointing, and retail sales

volumes grew by 3% - the weakest reading since 2014. The Experian ‘Retail Planner Briefing Note

17 (February 2020) attributed this to the period being dominated by heightened Brexit uncertainty

and a weaker global economy.

3.12 Experian note that the outcome of the December 2019 general election removed near-term

political uncertainty and the risk of a no deal Brexit, empowering the government to push forward

with spending pledges and EU withdrawal plans. In February 2020, Experian recorded that the

latest indicators pointed to a pick-up in business confidence and investment intentions; whilst

housing market surveys suggested activity was rebounding and consumer sentiment improving.

3.13 Nevertheless, and even before factoring in Covid-19, Experian forecast that GDP growth was set to

remain on a slower growth trajectory of 1-1.5% over 2020 and 2021, well below the performance

of earlier years. This is reflected in Section 16 when forecasting need for future retail floorspace

across RBKC, with outputs clearly demonstrating the direct consequent impacts on forecast

expenditure growth rates for both convenience and comparison goods.

Covid-19

3.14 On Monday 23rd March 2020 the country introduced ‘lockdown’ measures and social distancing

including the closure of all but essential shops and services. This had an immediate impact on town

centres and town centre businesses unable to trade, with doors shut and no timeline in place for

re-opening. In the Retail Planner Briefing Note 18, October 2020, Experian state:

“the outbreak of coronavirus (Covid-19) and measures to contain it has had a

considerable impact on the UK and global economies. During the intensive

stage of the lockdown, the economy suffered an unprecedented contraction,

employment fell markedly and over 9 million employees were furloughed.

Consumer demand suffered given social distancing and low confidence,

leading to a big drop in social consumption, especially for recreation, leisure

and travel.

In addition, investment fell markedly, as waning business confidence and

deteriorating financial positions lead to the postponement and cancellation of

projects. Exports have also been undermined by a fall in international

demand for UK goods and services, as other countries enforce lockdown or

social distancing measures to varying degrees. Supply side factors have

reinforced this trend, such as the temporary closure of factories and

businesses and disruptions to supply chains.”

3.15 In the October 2020 report, Experian forecast a ‘near-term’, ‘central/medium’ and ‘long term’

outlook. This Retail and Leisure Study incorporates forecasts based on the Experian




‘central/medium’ term outlook on the basis that an effective medical treatment (the vaccine) was

in place by (around) mid-2021, enabling the recovery to regain momentum as confidence

recovered. Research by Savills, GfK and Bank of England (graph below) currently supports this

central trend based on the UK’s swift vaccine roll-out.

3.16 The vaccine roll-out has progressed swiftly and smoothly as expected under the ‘central/medium’

term scenario. As social distancing measures continue to unwind, social consumption is expected

to continue to recover; and alongside this, some correction in the share of online spending is

assumed, but it will nevertheless remain elevated compared to pre-Covid-19 projections.

3.17 Moving forwards, Experian explain that recovery over the coming years will be shaped by the

course of the pandemic, the success of measures to contain it and the extent of potential scarring

to the UK’s longer term economic potential. The unprecedented nature of these issues means all

forecasts will be subject to greater than usual uncertainty, with the following key variables:

▪ The role and implementation of any social-distancing measures over the coming months;

▪ How successful government measures are in mitigating the economic impact on households

and businesses;

▪ The rebound of household and business confidence levels;

▪ Global backdrop including trade and supply chain impacts on industry.

3.18 Government finances have deteriorated markedly following exceptional measures taken to support

the economy. Over the medium term, fiscal policy will likely be a constraint on growth as

corrective measures such as spending cuts or tax rises may be required. It is expected that

monetary policy will remain supportive over the medium term, with interest rates expected to

remain at exceptionally low levels of the foreseeable future.

Online and Multi-Channel Retailing

3.19 Online spending has become a firmly established method of shopping. Evidence demonstrates the

continued growth of this sector in terms of those that have internet access, those that use the

internet every day, the methods and modes used to undertake such transactions, and the breadth




of the population taking advantage of what is on offer, with the largest rise in the 65+ age group in

recent years.

3.20 Recent data from the ONS confirms the extent to which online platforms now form part of the

population’s shopping habits. The most recent data available from the ONS on online usage is from

August 2020, which identified that:

▪ In January to February 2020, 96% of households in Great Britain had internet access, up from

93% in 2019 and 57% in 2006 when comparable records began.

▪ Over 85% of adults use the Internet every day. Daily internet usage has more than doubled

since 2008.

▪ In January to February 2020, 76% of adults in Great Britain used internet banking, increasing

from 30% in 2007 and 73% in 2019.

▪ 78% use mobile phones/smartphones to access the Internet. In certain age groups this figure

is substantially higher: in the 25-34 year old age group, the figure is 99%; for 16-24 year olds it

is 98%; and for 35-44 year olds it is 96%.

▪ In January to February 2020, 87% of all adults shopped online within the last 12 months, up

from 53% in 2008; those aged 65 years and over had the highest growth, rising from 16% to

65% over this period.

▪ In August 2020, 100% of adults in the 16-24 and 25-34 old age group shopped online; and over

96% of 35-54 age group shopped online. By contrast, only 67% of those over 65 years shop

online - however this age group has shown the largest increase in online shopping uptake,

increasing from 48% in 2018, and 16% in 2008.

3.21 When looking at the frequency of online shopping and the amount typically spent online, it can be

seen that considerable amounts of spend are now being diverted online, which is spend lost from

‘bricks and mortar’ town centre stores. The ONS identifies that:

▪ Of those adults who purchased online in the last three months, adults aged 16-24 typically

shopped online once or twice; however those in the 25-34, 35-44 and 45-54 age groups most

typically shopped online at least ten times over a three month period. In the 35-44 age group,

48% shopped online more than ten times over the three month period.

▪ Across all age groups, shoppers typically spent between £100 and £499 online in the last three

months. In the 35-44 year age group, 30% of adults spent over £1,000 online in the three

month period.

3.22 Importantly for town centres, it has been evidenced that only 15% of online shoppers buy all of

their fashion items online, with the remaining 85% using both online and physical stores. This

highlights the importance of having a ‘joined-up’ town centre ‘experience’ to lure shoppers away

from the internet and instead to visit the high street and to extend their dwell time through a

range of retail and leisure attractions.

Covid-19 and Online Shopping

3.23 Experian report that there has been a marked increase in online shopping since the Covid-19 crisis

broke, which has further accelerated the already strong growth trend seen over the past decade.

The rising share of internet sales in total retail transactions is the key trend for SFT. Internet sales




share of total retail surpassed 19% in 2019 before lurching up to over 30% in the second quarter of

2020, against less than 5% in 2008.

3.24 With lockdown measures related to Covid-19 relaxing since the second quarter of 2020, the share

of internet sales in total retail transactions has eased from its peak (Fig.3.1 and 3.2 below). We

expect this unwinding to continue in the coming months, however it is anticipated that some of the

increase in the internet sales share seen during the pandemic will remain throughout the forecast

period. Figure 3.1 and 3.2 below illustrates the small drop from the high peak of growth, but not to

pre-Covid-19 levels, and will be followed by continued steady forecast growth.

Figure 3.1: Convenience Goods Internet Sales Growth Trends and Forecasts

Figure 3.2: Comparison Goods Internet Sales Growth Trends and Forecasts

3.25 The ease of online purchasing has also continued to improve rapidly, with technological advances,

particularly around smartphones and connectivity. Faster delivery ties, including same day

delivery, and easier returns processes have also encouraged the trend. Beyond 2021, Experian

expect the SFT market share to continue to growth strongly in the mid-term.




Click and Collect

3.26 Research indicates that the click and collect market will grow by a further 46% by 2023. Click and

collect allows a shopper to order and pay for a product online, and then have it delivered to the

nearest physical retail store of that operator. This is an important opportunity for town centres, as

it can act as a footfall generator in its own right. Research demonstrates that 39% of consumers

make an additional purchase in that town centre when collecting an item from a store.

3.27 John Lewis, for example, state on their website press releases that “in the last five years alone,

Click & Collect orders have increased more than 50% as customers enjoy the ease and convenience

it provides. Currently 57% of all online orders are delivered through this service with 25% of

packages collected at John Lewis shops and 75% at Waitrose shops”.

3.28 A challenge to the continued growth of click and collect is the rise of instant delivery and saver

delivery services, as businesses aim to match efficient delivery options and consumer expectations.

This includes same day delivery, one-hour delivery windows, and delivery passes whereby a

consumer pays an annual subscription to guarantee same day, next day or timeslot delivery

options. The impact of this on click and collect and associated opportunities for town centres will

need to be monitored.

High Street Losses

3.29 The economic trends referred to above, combined with the continued growth in on-line sales have

had a significant and permanent impact on consumer shopping and spending behaviour. In turn,

this has created significant hurdles for traditional ‘bricks-and-mortar’ retailing and the high street.

3.30 These national trends have added to operator challenges already being experienced as a

consequence of the retail property business model. Notably, operators face high costs of running

retail outlets, including rents, business rates and high labour costs; they experience low

profitability caused by high costs, slow growth in sales, squeezed profit margins and heavy price

competition. They have been slow to respond and to prepare for the fast-paced changes being

experienced on the high street, overlooking and disregarding the need to invest.

3.31 Operators have experienced a significant impact from the economic environment, the rise in online

shopping and the property market, with many high profile high street casualties in recent years.

Many operators will survive, but may instead look to rationalise their store portfolios. In recent

years, the following found themselves in administration and in many cases, closure:

▪ Beales (2020)

▪ Hawkins Bazaar (2020)

▪ Top Shop / Top Man

▪ LK Bennett (2020)

▪ Oasis and Warehouse (2020)

▪ Dorothy Perkins (2020)

▪ Miss Selfridge (2020)

▪ Burton (2020)

▪ Jaeger (2019)

▪ TM Lewin (2020)

▪ Kath Kidston (2020)

▪ Laura Ashley (2020)

▪ Mothercare (2019)

▪ Select (2019)

▪ Debenhams (2019)

▪ Edinburgh Woollen Mill (2019)

▪ HMV (2018)

▪ House of Fraser (2018)

▪ Poundworld (2018)

▪ Conviviality Retail (2018)

▪ Maplin (2018)




▪ Toys R Us (2018)

▪ Palmer & Harvey (2017)

▪ Store Twenty One (2017)

▪ BHS (2016)

▪ Brantano (2016)

▪ Phones4U (2014)

▪ HMV (2013)

▪ Blockbuster (2013)

▪ Comet (2012)

▪ Clinton Cards (2012)

▪ Game (2012)

▪ Peacocks (2012)

▪ JJB Sports (2012)

▪ Alexon (2012)

▪ Focus DIY (2011)

3.32 The Covid-19 Grimsey Review (June 2020) references statistics published in the months just prior to

the pandemic by CBRE, highlighting the stark downturn in the retail property market. The report

quotes a 42% fall in retail property investment between 2014 and 2018; a 78% drop in shopping

centre investment over the same period; and a 47% drop in the value of retail property assets

changing hands between 2017 and 2018. The report adds that there were no new shopping centre

openings in 2019, although some were extended, whilst a third of London shopping centres were

subject to planning applications for at least some element of conversion to residential use.

3.33 It is predicted that the Covid-19 pandemic will drive a substantial amount of retail property into the

hands of insolvency practitioners over the next few months.

Commercial Leisure Sector

3.34 In recent years, the commercial leisure sector has played an increasingly important role in the

vitality and viability of town centres, as the nature of town centres continues to evolve. In many

new town centre schemes, a cinema or family/casual dining has replaced retail as the ‘anchor’,

driven by the growth of this sector and the need for town centres to generate a more varied visitor

experience.

3.35 Leisure uses will continue to be important attractors in town centres, but the casual dining sector

has now reached saturation and increased competition is leading to casualties. Analysts suggest

that in addition to market saturation, the rise in food costs, staff costs, rents and business rates

have all impacted on operators’ profits; as well as emerging on-line delivery companies such as

Uber Eats, Deliveroo and Just Eat.

3.36 The consequences of Covid-19 and associated lockdown and social distancing, will have further far-

reaching impacts on the leisure and casual dining sector, with on-line delivery companies becoming

firmly established in people’s homes.

The Convenience Sector

3.37 The trends being experienced in the food retailing sector were establishing themselves to varying

degrees at the time of the 2016 Retail Study update. Food superstores have experienced a

substantial decline in market share, small format top-up stores are gaining market share, discount

retailers – Aldi and Lidl – are achieving strong growth, and on-line spend is continuing to grow

although not to the same extent as non-food shopping. The market leaders pulled back on large

superstore openings a number of years ago, and whilst small convenience stores continue to open

this is not at the same pace as that seen in recent years.




Banks and Financial

3.38 The services of the high street banks have traditionally been delivered through their branch

networks, meaning that in town centres at all levels in the hierarchy the presence of a wide range

of banks and building societies formed an important part of a centre’s mix of uses. The numbers of

bank branches in the UK have been in decline for the past thirty years, due to a variety of reasons

including the desire by banks to cut costs; mergers within the industry; competitive pressures from

new entrants in the banking sector; changes in the nature of retail banking transactions; and a

growth in alternative means of accessing bank services, particularly driven by technological

advances such as online and mobile banking.

3.39 According to research from CACI1, customer visits to retail bank branches are forecast to drop by

36% between 2017 and 2022, with mobile transactions rising 121% in the same period. CACI

estimate that the typical person will visit a retail bank branch just four times a year, down from

seven in 2017.

3.40 Most banks have an alliance with the Post Office (whose own branch network has remained

relatively stable in recent years), meaning that in most smaller centres there are still banking

facilities available to those who are not able to use alternative means. However, the decline of

bank branches has also served to free up large, often historic and listed commercial premises in

central town centre locations, which are in some instances challenging to let.

Out-of-Centre Retailing

3.41 Out-of-centre retailing offers the benefits of lower rents, larger retail units and in most cases, free

car parking. According to Verdict (national retail intelligence and trend analysts), out-of-town

retailing is the only form of retailing – pre-Covid-19 – which saw store numbers increase

consistently since 2000. The Department for Business, Innovation and Skills reported that the

number of out-of-centre stores had increased by up to c.1,800 (25%) since 2000.

3.42 The recovery of market confidence which took place in the period since 2013 benefited out-of-

town retailing. Vacancy rates fell, footfall increased, and many retailers were seeking expansion in

existing – and some new – out-of-centre locations. Some traditional town centre retailers

developed out-of-town store formats, including John Lewis which opened a number of ‘At Home’

stores in prominent out-of-centre locations, as well as other traditionally ‘high street’-focussed

retailers such as, Next, Primark and H&M.

3.43 Even before Covid-19, however, the sector was feeling the impact of a changing market, with a

slow-down in new retail parks and a general evolution from mainstream retail to more mixed-use

town centre/leisure parks, and a move towards a wider mix of uses including residential. Retail

Parks have felt the impact of retail store closures in much the same way as high streets; when

businesses close, they close in all locations.

3.44 The combined effects of Covid-19 and new, more flexible planning legislation, has brought retail

parks back into favour. It is reported (Workman2, January 2021) that in the five weeks to 2 January

1 Analytical research company, providing operator trend data. 2 Workman is the largest, independent commercial property management & building consultancy firm in UK.




2021, overall footfall at UK shopping destinations dropped 46% compared to the previous year; but

with a drop of 50% on the high street and only 17% at retail parks.

3.45 The resilience of retail parks throughout the pandemic led to a ‘flurry’ of investor acquisitions at

the end of 2020, with destinations meeting the needs of suburban home workers, enabling social-

distancing, offering click and collect, and more spacious environments. The strong weighting to

‘essential’ items also meant many could continue trading during ‘lockdown’.

3.46 Workman state:

“retail parks are not just being snapped up with the intention of repurposing into last

mile distribution centres or residential. Most have attracted investment due to their

broad base of essential retailers, with a perceived lower risk of insolvency.”

3.47 The introduction of more flexible planning regulations, including a new combined commercial Use

Class E and permitted development from Use Class E to residential, makes such destinations

attractive investments. Owners have more flexibility in respect of operator line-up and the mix of

acceptable uses, with strong opportunities for increased site intensification and place-shaping

visions. Opportunities for high density development and mixed-use development (to include

residential) at retail parks and also out-of-town foodstore locations is clearly set out in the London

Plan (2021), as discussed in Section 2.

Summary

▪ The role of town centres as a focus for retail remains relevant in today’s market to draw in

shoppers and footfall. Current thinking and research consistently repeats, however, the need to

look beyond the role of retail in order to reinvent the high street, emphasising that the town

centre of the future must add an extra dimension to the retail experience. Covid-19 and new

planning legislation have and will continue to accelerate these trends. Away from the high

street, the composition and role of out-of-centre retail and retail parks will almost certainly

evolve towards more mixed uses spaces and places as a consequence of the same factors.

▪ It is apparent that these ‘extra layers/diversity of uses’ are in addition to the core retail role, but

should be closely connected to ensure a joined-up experience within a comprehensive town

centre strategy. Investment in a wider mix of land-uses and public realm/public space

improvements will benefit a consolidated retail offer, leading to improved town centre footfall

activity. Short-term investment projects alongside longer term investment for major projects

can have far-reaching positive benefits to the performance of a town centre.




4. Sub-Regional Context

4.1 In this section, we set out the sub-regional context within which the town centres in RBKC operate.

Administrative areas are not ‘closed systems’ and it is natural to expect a degree of expenditure

inflow from beyond the RBKC borough boundary, and also expenditure leakage to the surrounding

network of town centres and other shopping destinations outside the borough.

4.2 The analysis of catchment areas and trade flows form an important input to the baseline. It

enables historic trend line market share data to be explored, leading to an understanding of

whether the influence of a town centre in the sub-region has improved or declined over time. The

data identifies catchment areas and opportunities to enhance trade draw in the future, highlighting

key influences in the form of planning commitments and planned development which may

enhance the market share of a shopping destination over the plan period.

Household Telephone Survey

4.3 The household telephone survey area is illustrated in Figure 4.1 below; and a total of 1,000

households across 10 survey zones were interviewed. Zones 1-10 of the survey area replicates the

previous 2008 survey area to ensure direct comparisons and the identification of trends over time.

4.4 The questionnaire was designed in consultation with the Council and NEMS Market Research, who

undertook interviewing and data processing in February 2021. The findings explore where

residents living within the survey area are travelling to for their spending on different types of

goods including convenience, comparison and leisure uses; this might be within or beyond the

RBKC borough.

Figure 4.1: Household Telephone Survey Area, 2021




2008 Retail Study - Overview

4.5 The 2008 Study identified an affluent ‘borough-wide’ socio-economic profile when compared to

other London borough’s and also the wider UK. The report added, however, that these borough

wide averages hide variations within RBKC, with the southern and central parts of the borough

being generally much more affluent than the north of the borough. A number of wards in the

north of the borough, i.e. Saint Charles, Golborne and Colville were amongst the most deprived

wards in the country, whilst wards in the south and central areas, i.e. Campden, Hans Town and

Royal Hospital, are amongst the most affluent in the country.

4.6 In terms of the sub-regional context, the 2008 study identified London’s West End as the most

popular shopping destination, with 18.5% of all respondents shopping there, followed by

Kensington High Street (12.2%) and King’s Road (10.9%). Within the borough survey zones (Zones

1-3), the most popular shopping destination was Kensington High Street (22.2% - Zone 1 / 40% -

Zone 2); and in Zone 3 it was King’s Road (54.1%). The report concluded that Kensington High

Street and King’s Road were the predominant non-food shopping destinations for residents living in

the borough (Zones 1-3).

4.7 The 2008 Study reported that the main non-food shopping destinations outside the borough for all

respondents living across the survey area, included London West End, Hammersmith and Brent

Cross, followed by Fulham, Kilburn and Clapham Junction. Centres were ranked by popularity as

follows:

▪ London West End

▪ Kensington High Street

▪ King’s Road

▪ Hammersmith

▪ Brent Cross

▪ Fulham

▪ Kilburn

▪ Clapham Junction

4.8 The 2008 Study did identify need for additional comparison goods floorspace over the plan period,

but noted the imminent opening of Westfield Shopping Centre, just beyond the borough boundary.

It was recognised at that time that the White City development, which was due to open before the

end of 2008, would change existing shopping patterns in the study area, with a view that trade

drawn from comparison shopping facilities within the borough would be significant.

4.9 The 2008 concluded that the Westfield catchment area would encompass most if not all of RBKC,

and factored the development in when forecasting for future floorspace need. Quantitative need

figures amended market shares and presented a ‘low borough growth scenario’, assuming that

Westfield would absorb a significant amount of comparison expenditure growth in the Borough

from 2008 to 2012. The forecast need figures are set out in Table 4.1 below.

4.10 The 2008 Study explains that the projections suggest that in the short term, the impact of

competing developments could lead to a reduction in comparison floorspace within the central and

north parts of the Borough, with Kensington High Street and Notting Hill Gate perhaps the most

vulnerable. The strategy for this part of the Borough should be to concentrate on retaining existing

Class A1 retail uses and the reoccupation of existing vacant units.




Table 4.1: Forecast Comparison Goods Floorspace Need (Extract: 2008 Study)

4.11 The 2008 Study split the borough into the ‘South Sub-Area’ and the ‘Central/North Sub-Area’, and

forecast a total combined need for almost 145,000 sq m gross of comparison goods floorspace by

2028 – the development plan period. In the context of growing SFT and economic fluctuations, the

2016 Study Update identified a substantially lower ‘need’ of 21,000 sq m gross of comparison

goods floorspace to the period 2028.

2021 Shopping Patterns / Trade Retention / Leakage

4.12 The up-to-date household telephone survey (2021) prepared to inform this new evidence base

study enables us to understand the performance of the RBKC town centres in the context of the

town centre network across RBKC and the wider sub-region. The data allows us to examine the

influence of competing destinations and the associated flows of retail expenditure and levels of

trade retention.

4.13 Shopping patterns derived from the Zone 1-10 household telephone survey enable us to calculate

the amount of comparison goods expenditure that each competing centre/destination draws from

the defined RBKC survey area. As well as the strength of the retail offer, this indicator takes into

consideration accessibility across the RBKC sub-region. The total expenditure travelling to these

destinations is set out in Table 4.2 below; whilst the market share of each centre across each

survey zone is set out in Table 5, Appendix 2.

Table 4.2: Study Area (Zone 1-10) Comparison Goods Expenditure Flows

Destination Ranked by Trade Draw 2021 Trade Draw (£m) 2021 Trade Draw (%)

1 Central London/West End £337.6m 13.4%

2 King’s Road (East) £329.4m 13.1%

3 Westfield White City £281.8m 11.2%

4 Kensington High Street £201.9m 8.0%




5 Kilburn £87.7m 3.5%

6 Brent Cross £85.5m 3.4%

7 Hammersmith £75.7m 3.0%

8 Clapham Junction £66.5m 2.6%

9 Wandsworth £57.0m 2.3%

10 Staples Corner Retail Park, Brent Cross £53.3m 2.1%

11 Ikea, Wembley £50.8m 2.0%

12 Victoria £37.0m 1.5%

13 Shepherds Bush Green £32.3m 1.3%

14 Notting Hill Gate £33.3m 1.3%

15 Knightsbridge £20.2m 0.8%

16 Fulham Broadway £18.6m 0.7%

Other RBKC Town Centres

King’s Road (West) £15.7m 0.6%

Fulham Road (West) £14.6m 0.6%

Portobello Road £12.0m 0.5%

Westbourne Grove £6.2m 0.2%

South Kensington £3.3m 0.1%

Earls Court Road £3.0m 0.1%

Brompton Cross £0.5m 0.05%

4.14 The key change since the previous household telephone survey in 2008 has been the opening and

introduction of Westfield White City into the hierarchy, identified as being the third most popular

destination to shop (Table 4.2) by those living within Zones 1-10 of the survey area. Market share

by zone is set out in Table 5, Appendix 2.

4.15 The ranking of other town centres by trade draw/popularity has changed very little since the

previous full study (2008), referenced earlier in this section. Hammersmith, Brent Cross, Kilburn

and Clapham Junction remain popular destinations for those living within the survey area, although

Fulham has less influence in comparison. King’s Road (East) and Kensington High Street remain by

far the most influential and most visited town centres in the borough, with King’s Road (East)

retaining a stronger position than Westfield White City within the full Zone 1-10 Survey Area.

4.16 Further analysis of the data enables a more in-depth understanding of the shopping patterns of

those living within the borough, and their choices of shopping destination. The borough boundary

broadly reflects the geographical area covered by Zones 1, 2 and 3 of the survey area, and it is

relevant to analyse the level of borough-wide trade retention for each RBKC town centre at the

current time. Table 4.3 sets out the trade retention of each of the RBKC higher order town centres

within RBKC (Zones 1-3), and also the wider Zone 1-10 Survey Area. For comparison, Table 4.3 also

includes London West End and Westfield White City.

4.17 Within the borough (Zone 1-3), King’s Road (East) is the strongest centre retaining £151.8m of

borough comparison goods expenditure (24.1%), followed by Kensington High Street (137.6m




(21.9%). London West End and Westfield White City have lower levels of influence on those living

within RBKC, with only £43.3m (6.9%) and £72.4m (11.5%) respectively, leaking from the borough

(Zones 1-3) to these destinations.

Table 4.3: RBKC Comparison Goods Spending Destinations (2021)

Zone 1-3

£m

Zone 1-3

Market Share %

Zone 1-10

£m

Zone 1-10

Market Share %

Central London/West End £43.3m 6.9% £337.6m 13.4%

King’s Road (East) £151.8m 24.1% £329.4m 13.1%

Westfield White City £72.4m 11.5% £281.8m 11.2%

Kensington High Street £137.6m 21.9% £201.9m 8.0%

Notting Hill Gate £25.1m 4.0% £33.3m 1.3%

Knightsbridge £12.8m 2.0% £20.2m 0.8%

King’s Road (West) £8.4m 1.3% £15.7m 0.6%

Fulham Road (West) £4.5m 0.7% £14.6m 0.6%

Portobello Road £9.2m 1.5% £12.0m 0.5%

Westbourne Grove £1.6m 0.3% £6.2m 0.2%

South Kensington £2.7m 0.4% £3.3m 0.1%

Earls Court Road £2.7m 0.4% £3.0m 0.1%

Brompton Cross £0.5m 0.05% £0.5m 0.05%

Source: Table 6, Appendix 2

4.18 The results of the survey demonstrate that the eleven higher order town centres in RBKC retain

£649.2m (25.5%) of comparison goods expenditure generated within the Survey Area, whilst

£1,302m (51.5%) of Survey Area expenditure is being captured by competing destinations located

outside of the borough (Table 6, Appendix 2).

4.19 Within the borough, trade retention is higher. The eleven higher order RBKC town centres retain

£357m (56.7%) of comparison goods expenditure generated within the borough (Zones 1-3), whilst

£182.3m (29%) is being captured by competing destinations located outside of the borough (Table

6, Appendix 2). Residual expenditure is being spent at different ‘other’ locations either within or

beyond the borough boundary.

4.20 The above analysis provides a good indicator of the most popular town centres and destinations at

this ‘point in time’. Administrative boundaries are not, however, closed systems, and shoppers will

always flow into and out of a local authority area; whilst trade draw is a good indicator of ‘current

popularity’, a % trade retention level is not a definitive guide to the strength or success of the

retail/town centre offer based on recent trends and an increase/decrease in influence. Drawing on

the data collated it is possible, however, to compare this level of trade retention over time to

explore performance in greater depth. We discuss this below with a particular emphasis on the

opening of Westfield White City, and provide additional discussion in respect of performance in

Section 16.




Change Since 2008 / Impact of Westfield White City

4.21 The Future Town Centres Report, prepared by Hatch, provided an up-to-date analysis of the

borough’s economic and deprivation profile, enabling a comparison with the 2008 evidence base.

The findings are consistent with the 2008 Study, which confirmed an affluent ‘borough-wide’ socio-

economic profile, but identified hidden variations within the borough, with many wards in the

north continuing to be amongst the most deprived in the country. The 2021 Future Town Centres

Report concluded:

“Most of RBKC has low levels of deprivation. Nine of the 11 centres have no areas that

are classified as being within the 20% most deprived in the country. Fulham Road

(West), Kensington High Street, Knightsbridge and South Kensington also do not have

any areas classified as being within the 50% most deprived in the country.

There are some significant concentrations of deprivation to the north, however, which

encompasses Portobello Road and parts of Westbourne Grove; 54% of areas within

Portobello Road and 51% of areas in Earls Court, are classified as being within the 20%

most deprived in the UK. When extended to the top 50% most deprived areas in the

UK, 100% of Earls Court is classified at this level, followed closely by Portobello Road

(86%) and Brompton Cross (58%).”

4.22 Figure 4.2 is a plan extract from the Future Town Centres Study (2021), illustrating areas by ‘rank of

deprivation’. This clearly shows the higher levels of deprivation in the north of the borough and

west around Earls Court.

Figure 4.2: Deprivation Around RBKC’s Town Centres




4.23 Westfield, White City opened on 30th October 2008, following completion of the 2008 Retail and

Leisure Needs Study. The preparation of this up to date Retail and Leisure Needs Assessment

(2021) has enabled shopping patterns to be surveyed and analysed robustly for the first time in

order to fully understand the impact of the development on the town centres in RBKC. Previously,

the 2008 Study and 2016 Update have estimated impact and adjusted market shares accordingly,

drawing on published data sets where possible. Below, we discuss the findings from the new

Household Telephone Survey (2021).

4.24 Figure 4.3 below illustrates the location of Westfield, White City within the Household Telephone

Survey Area; sitting in Zone 10 but located very close to the boundary with Zone 1 and 9.

Figure 4.3: Westfield, White City Location Plan

4.25 The 2008 evidence base presented market shares by Sub-Area, combining the overall performance

of those town centres in the North/Central Sub-Area and those town centres in the South Sub-

Area. The 2021 Update has replicated this approach enabling a direct comparison of market share

trade retention and any key changes to levels of influence/performance over this period of time.

The Sub-Areas are split as follows:-

Central/North RBKC Town Centres South RBKC Town Centres

Kensington High Street Major Centre (Zone 2)

Earls Court Road District Centre (Zone 2)

Notting Hill Gate District Centre (Zone 2)

Westbourne Grove SDC (Zone 1)

Portobello Road SDC (Zone 1)

Knightsbridge International Centre (Zone 6)

Kings Road (East) Major Centre (Zone 3)

South Kensington District Centre (Zone 3)

Kings Road (West) District Centre (Zone 3)

Fulham Road West District Centre (Zone 3)

Brompton Cross District Centre (Zone 3)

Westfield White City




4.26 Tables 4.5 and 4.6 compare market share for each Sub-Area in 2008 and 2021, identifying those

zones where the borough’s town centres have experienced an increase or decline in market share.

4.27 Table 4.5 sets out the combined market share of those town centres in the Central/North Sub-

Area, highlighting that within Zones 1-3 (the borough), the RBKC town centres have lost market

share in Zone 1 only, falling substantially from 39% to 19.6%. Given geographic proximity, this is

likely to be a consequence of Westfield, White City. Kensington High Street is located in Zone 2,

and this Zone has seen a substantial increase in market share from 38% to 51.5%, highlighting a

strong performance. Zone 3 has experienced a very small increase in market share. Elsewhere in

the survey area – outside of the borough – the Central/North Sub-Area town centres have all lost

market share in Zones 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 10.

Table 4.5: Central/North Sub-Area Market Share by Zone (2008 & 2021)

Note: Central/North Sub-Area Includes: Kensington High Street Major Centre (Zone 2) / Earls Court Road

District Centre (Zone 2) / Notting Hill Gate District Centre (Zone 2) / Westbourne Grove SDC (Zone 1) /

Portobello Road SDC (Zone 1)

4.28 Table 4.6 sets out the combined market share of the RBKC town centres in the South Sub-Area,

highlighting that Westfield White City has had very little impact on their performance over the

period since 2008. Market Share in Zones 1 and 2 are relatively unchanged, whilst Zone 3 market

share has seen a significant increase from 55% to 71.7%. There are five RBKC town centres in Zone

3 including King’s Road East and West, South Kensington, Fulham Road and Brompton Cross. South

Sub-Area RBKC market share in the rest of the survey area (Zones 4-10) has remained relatively

unchanged with small increases and decreases recorded (Table 4.6).

Table 4.6: South Sub-Area Market Share by Zone (2008 & 2021)

Note: South Sub-Area includes: Knightsbridge International Centre (Zone 6) / Kings Road (East) Major

Centre (Zone 3) / South Kensington District Centre (Zone 3) / Kings Road (West) District Centre (Zone 3) /

Fulham Road West District Centre (Zone 3) / Brompton Cross District Centre (Zone 3)

4.29 The analysis above suggests that Kensington High Street has strengthened its role and performance

in its core catchment Zone 2 since 2008, but that the RBKC town centres located in the Central and

North Sub-Area have, combined, lost market share. Westfield, White City has had the greatest

impact on Zone 1 trade draw since 2008, diverting expenditure from the Central/North Sub-Area

town centres. It is also evident that King’s Road has strengthened its role and performance in its

core catchment Zone 3 since 2008, and that White City has had little impact on the performance of

the South Sub-Area town centres combined across the remainder of the survey area.




4.30 These findings are endorsed by the findings of the 2008 Study, which highlighted that within the

borough survey zones (1-3), the most popular shopping destination was Kensington High Street,

with a market share of 22.2% and 40% in Zone 1 and 2 respectively (2008). This has now fallen

(2021) to 7.8% in Zone 1 (as a consequence of Westfield), but increased to 45.3% in Zone 2 as

Kensington High Street has consolidated its role and position in this core catchment. In 2008, the

most popular shopping destination for those living in Zone 3 was King’s Road, which had a market

share of 54.1%; this has now increased to 62.8%.

4.31 Current market shares for Westfield White City are set out in Table 5, Appendix 2, as follows (Table

4.7), highlighting the core catchment Zone 1, 9 and 10.

Table 4.7: Westfield White City Market Shares (2021)

Zone1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 Zone 10

22.7% 9.5% 2.2% 8.8% 7.1% 0.4% 3.7% 9.1% 17.6% 36.9%

4.32 Overall, the findings demonstrate that the RBKC town centres have increased their level of

influence and trade retention within Zones 1-3 (the borough) – but lost market share in the zones

located outside of the borough – Zones 4-10 combined:

RBKC Town Centres, Zone 1-10 Market Share

▪ 2008 – 30.9%

▪ 2021 – 25.5%

RBKC Town Centres, Zone 1-3 Market Share

▪ 2008 – 54.0%

▪ 2021 – 56.7%

4.33 The 2008 Study estimated that Westfield White City would have a market share of 21% in Zones 1-

3 in 2012, but this up-to-date assessment confirms that market share to be much lower, at 11.5%

(2021). The impact of Westfield White City on Zones 1-3 has been considerably less than initially

forecast. Beyond the borough, the 2008 Study estimated that Westfield White City would have a

market share of 11.4% in Zones 4-10 (combined) in 2012, and this up-to-date assessment confirms

that market share to be broadly correct, at 11.1% (2021).

4.34 The achievement of the RBKC town centres in increasing core catchment market share, and

attracting a higher proportion of those that live nearby, must be a response to the quality and

diversity of their offer (which we explore in later sections), but is also likely to highlight new trends

as people ‘shop local’ following the Covid-19 pandemic. It is thought that such trends will continue

into the future. This may partly benefit the RBKC town centres, but it is also proving increasingly

difficult to attract shoppers from further afield across wider sub-regions. This should be monitored

moving forwards, and demonstrates the growing need for diversity and multi-dimensional town

centres.




Pipeline Development

4.35 The above analysis sets the RBKC town centres at a ‘point in time’, i.e. presenting the current

relationship with the surrounding network of town centres and retail shopping destinations. We

have taken this a stage further to review developments in the pipeline in competing centres to

assess the likely increase in trade draw as a consequence of a new and improved shopping

experience. The review explores future risk to RBKC retaining current levels of market share, or

inversely the opportunity for RBKC to improve market share over the Local Plan period.

4.36 The key development likely to have an impact on RBKC is Battersea Power Station – close to King’s

Road on the southern side of the River Thames, across Chelsea Bridge. The Power Station ‘town

centre’ will open during 2022, forming the centre of a planned new ’15 minute live, work and play

neighbourhood’. The retail offer is driven by high end and luxury British and International brands,

including Hugo Boss, MAC Cosmetics, Space NK, Watches of Switzerland, Jo Malone, boxing gym,

BXR and The Cinema at The Power Station - a new cinema and private members club, with sister

sites including The Cinema, Selfridges and The Cinema in The Arches located in Circus West Village.

4.37 During October 2021 additional new operators signed up, including Ralph Lauren, Calvin Klein,

Tommy Hilfiger, The Kooples, Ray-Ban, Lacoste, Gant, Mango and Reiss. A 25,000 sq ft Food Hall

offering an all-day dining experience will also be opening in the Boiler House at the heart of the

Power Station, with details scheduled to be released over the next few weeks. The Zone 1

Battersea Power Station Underground Station opened in October 2021 as part of the Northern Line

Extension, bringing the development within 15 minutes of the West End and the City. The

development and the impact – particularly on nearby King’s Road (East) – should be monitored

over the plan period.

Battersea Power Station




Summary

▪ The key sub-regional change since the previous 2008 Study has been the opening of Westfield

White City in October 2008. The data reveals that Central London/West End remains the most

popular shopping destination for those living within the survey area, followed by King’s Road,

Westfield White City and Kensington High Street. Consistent with the 2008 Study, King’s Road

and Kensington remain by far the most popular town centres in the borough, whilst the

ranking of ‘other’ town centres beyond the borough has changed very little since the 2008

Study with Hammersmith, Brent Cross, Kilburn and Clapham Junction remaining popular

choices. Within Zones 1-3, King’s Road and Kensington have the strongest market shares.

▪ An analysis of the Central/North Sub-Area and South Sub-Area town centres concludes that

Kensington High Street and King’s Road have consolidated and increased their market share in

their respective survey zones (2 and 3) since 2008. It is also evident that:

o the South Sub-Area town centres combined have been robust, showing a significant

market share increase in Zone 3, and relatively stable market shares across the

remainder of the survey area; and

o the Central/North Sub-Area town centres combined have been more vulnerable,

and aside from a significant market share increase in Zone 2, have lost market share

in most other survey zones. Westfield White City has had a significant impact in

Zone 1, diverting trade predominantly from Kensington High Street which has seen

a significant market share reduction in this survey zone.

▪ RBKC town centres have increased their level of trade retention within Zones 1-3, and the

impact of Westfield White City on shopping patterns within the borough have been

considerably less than initial estimated. RBKC town centres have, however, lost market share

in survey zones located outside of the borough (4-10) with pre-development forecasts of

impact concluded to be broadly correct. The outer survey zones (4/5/6/7/8/9/10) are all well

connected to Westfield by overground and underground. Losing market share in areas further

afield is also likely to be a consequence of the post-pandemic ‘shop local’ trend – partly

benefitting the RBKC town centres, but also demonstrating the need for diversity and multi-

dimensional town centres to continue to attract shoppers from further afield.

▪ The opening of Battersea Power Station as a retail and leisure ‘destination’ has potential

impact implications for the borough, particularly King’s Road East and Knightsbridge. This

should be monitored moving forwards over the plan period and within evidence base updates

and annual monitoring reports where possible.




5. Knightsbridge

5.1 Knightsbridge is identified as an International Centre in the Local Plan and London, defined as

follows:

▪ International centres: London’s globally-renowned retail and leisure destinations, providing a

broad range of high-order comparison and specialist shopping, integrated into environments

of the highest architectural quality and interspersed with internationally-recognised leisure,

culture, heritage and tourism destinations. These centres have excellent levels of public

transport accessibility. [London Plan 2021, Annex 1]

5.2 The Knightsbridge International Centre allocation reflects the concentration of flagship stores for

many British and International fashion houses and department stores, most notably Harrods, which

is the single largest visitor attraction in the borough, and Harvey Nichols. There are just two

International Centres in London; the West End and Knightsbridge, although Stratford and

Shepherds Bush are identified as having the potential to take a step change upwards to

International Centre level in the London-wide town centre hierarchy. This will be monitored over

the course of the London Plan period.

5.3 Most of the centre lies within Kensington and Chelsea, but it does straddle the boundary with the

City of Westminster. Our analysis focuses on the area of the International Centre falling within the

borough of Kensington & Chelsea (comprising 252 units), incorporating the south side of Brompton

Road from the junction with Thurloe Place at the western end, to William Street (adjoining the Park

Tower Hotel) at the eastern end; and also Sloane Street stretching to Cadogan Place at the

southern boundary of the International Centre. A number of important peripheral streets also fall

within the centre boundary and our analysis, including Beauchamp Place, Hans Road, Hans

Crescent, Cheval Place, Brompton Place and Basil Street.

5.4 Knightsbridge attracts a high number of visitors from around the UK and the World. The centre is

part of London’s Central Activities Zone (CAZ) reflecting how the world class shops and hotels in

Knightsbridge contribute to London’s role as a world city. The shopping centre is surrounded by

high level residential development, and a number of exclusive hotels. The Local Plan notes that all




of the major footfall generators are located on the south side of Brompton Road. This, along with

the barrier presented by heavy traffic along Brompton Road, and a significant change in level

across the road west of Harrods, combines to make this a one-sided shopping street – falling within

Kensington & Chelsea.

5.5 The Local Plan sets out the vision for the borough (Policy CV 1), aiming to enhance the reputation

of national and international destinations – Knightsbridge, Portobello Road, South Kensington, the

King’s Road, Kensington High Street – by supporting and encouraging retail and cultural activities in

particular. Policy CV 1 adds that the top retail destinations of Knightsbridge, King’s Road,

Kensington High Street and Portobello will have been maintained and enhanced to the period

2028. Policy CV 13 sets the vision for Knightsbridge in 2028:

“By 2028, Knightsbridge will have maintained its role as one of London’s most exclusive

national and international shopping destinations, drawing visitors from across the world. It

will also continue its role as an important residential quarter and a service centre for

residents in both Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster. These two functions will exist

together harmoniously and the public realm will have been improved to reflect both roles.”

5.6 The London Plan identifies some opportunity for development in Knightsbridge International

Centre. Whilst it does not identify any future reclassification of the International Centre (the

highest classification) in the town centre hierarchy, it records it as having high commercial growth

potential with the opportunity to provide some low level incremental housing intensification. High

commercial growth includes town centres likely to experience strategically-significant levels of

growth with strong demand and/or large-scale retail, leisure or office development in the pipeline

and with existing or potential public transport capacity to accommodate it (typically PTAL 5-6).

5.7 The London Plan identifies Knightsbridge being within the Central Activity Zone (CAZ) office

guidelines area. Policy SD5 of the London Plan confirms that offices are to be given greater weight

relative to new residential development within the CAZ, including Knightsbridge.

5.8 The London Plan does not identify the centre as falling within a Strategic Area for Regeneration,

but does confirm a night-time economy classification of NT2, i.e. having a strategic night-time

function involving a broad mix of activity during the evening and at night including culture, leisure,

entertainment, food and drink, health services and shopping. Knightsbridge NT2 is recorded as

being of regional or sub-regional significance.

Diversity of Uses / Retailer Representation

5.9 Based on the latest survey by Experian Goad (March 2021), Knightsbridge International Centre

(falling within Kensington & Chelsea) comprises 62,250 sq m of retail, leisure and service floorspace

across 252 units. Table 1.1 and 1.2 below set out the diversity of uses in Knightsbridge compared

to the national average in respect of town centre composition. The data demonstrates that the

Major Centre continues to have a particularly strong representation of comparison goods retail

operators compared to all other categories which fall below national average levels.

5.10 The proportion of convenience goods operators (2%) is significant below the national average of

9.2%, comprising just 5 of the 252 shop units. These include one bakers, two delicatessens, one tea

and coffee merchant and one small convenience store – ‘Lord’s Food & Wine’ at the western end

of Brompton Road. On the north side of Brompton Road, in the City of Westminster, is Waitrose

Little and a Sainsbury’s Local with external ATM cash machine. It is concluded, however, that




Knightsbridge is not a convenience goods/food purchase destination. A number of local and

London-wide residents shop in the luxury Harrods and Harvey Nichols food halls.

Table 5.1: Knightsbridge International Centre Composition of Uses (Units)

No. of units % of Total UK Average (%) Variance

Convenience 5 2.0 9.2 -7.2%

Comparison 111 44.0 29.6 14.4%

Leisure Service 48 19.0 24.4 -5.4%

Retail Service 27 10.7 15.0 -4.3%

Financial & Business Service

9 3.6 9.9 -6.3%

Vacant 52 20.6 11.7 8.9%

Total 252 100 100 -

Table 5.2: Knightsbridge International Centre Composition of Uses (Floorspace sq m gross)

Floorspace % of Total UK Average (%) Variance

Convenience 730 1.2 9.2 -8.0%

Comparison 39,070 62.8 29.6 33.2%

Leisure Service 9,950 16.0 24.4 -8.4%

Retail Service 2,290 3.7 15.0 -11.3%

Financial and Business Service

1,760 2.8 9.9 -7.1%

Vacant 8,450 13.6 11.7 1.9%

Total 62,250 100 100 -

5.11 As you would expect for an International Centre, Knightsbridge has a particularly strong proportion

of comparison goods operators (44%), significantly above the national average of 29.6%, and

comprising 111 retail operators. Within the comparison goods category 70 operators (63% of total)

are within the clothing, footwear, and clothing accessories sub-categories.

5.12 The frontage between Harrods and Harvey Nichols is a key clothing destination, including flag ship

stores for high end brands Hugo Boss, Furla, Grand Seiko, All Saints, Tommy Hilfiger, Diesel, Ted

Baker and Russell & Bromley. Zara also has a flagship store on this frontage. To the east, Sloane

Street is an exclusive retail address, home to a large number of luxury national and international

clothing brands and flagship stores including Dolce & Gabbana, Versace, Fendi, Balenciaga, Chanel,

Valentino, Roberto Cavalli, Gucci, Giorgio Armani, Prada, Luis Vuitton, Dior and Joseph.

5.13 There is also a strong concentration of luxury jewellery and watch brands, located on Beauchamp

Place, Brompton Road and Sloane Street. These include Watches of Switzerland, Grand Seiko,

Omega, Bulgari, and Graff Diamonds. Other comparison goods sub-categories include a smaller

number of art galleries, chemists, interior decorations, florists, bridal wear, and health & beauty.

The focus of comparison goods retailing in Knightsbridge is clothing, footwear and jewellery.




5.14 Both leisure and retail services are below the national average, albeit some operators north of

Brompton Road within the City of Westminster do contribute the overall offer. The Leisure

Services category is primarily comprised of international cuisine restaurants and hotels, with a

small number of cafes. There is also a betting office (William Hill), The Park Tower Casino,

McDonalds and Pret A Manger, two public houses and two health clubs. There are 27 retail service

operators, mostly comprising beauty salons and hairdressers, with the majority located on

Beauchamp Place. There is also a dry cleaners and three opticians. There are nine financial and

business services identified including four estate agents, and five banks, with Natwest and Barclays

both represented.

5.15 The Experian Goad survey (March 2021) recorded 52 vacant units across Knightsbridge

International Centre. This proportion (20.6%) is above the national average (11.7%), and raises

some concerns about the vitality and viability of Knightsbridge as an International Centre in the

borough. Experian did, however, record that 31 of these vacant units were ‘under alteration’,

suggesting a significant level of new investment into the International Centre. As part of this

project a new and up-to-date audit of vacant units was undertaken to further explore this key

vitality indicator.

5.16 A key development block containing 15 vacant units ‘under alteration’ were identified as part of

the K1 Knightsbridge site. The site sits adjoining Harvey Nichols to the west, and is bound by

Brompton Road, Sloane Street and Basil Street. The completed mixed-use project will retain the

historic façade and create modern, high-end retail and office space, 35 residential units and a new

rooftop restaurant totalling 340,000 sq ft. A major aspect of the scheme is the creation of a new

step-free access to Knightsbridge underground station via a new entrance from Hooper’s Court.

The station entrance currently at the corner of Sloane Street and Brompton Road will be relocated

further west along Brompton Road.

5.17 A further block to the western end of the International Centre and bound by Brompton Road,

Yeomans Row and Ovington Gardens has been refurbished and reconfigured, previously comprising

5 recorded vacant units. The project involved the amalgamation of small retail units and office

space at 197-205 Brompton Road to provide one 1,500 sq m flagship retail space. This unit has

since been let to luxury retailer ‘Smallbone’, a private multi-sensory, multi-brand destination




showcasing new and iconic kitchen, furniture and home interior collections within a ‘by

appointment only’ immersive shopping experience.

5.18 Those two blocks combined incorporated 20 of the recorded vacant units, reducing unoccupied

units to just 32, or 12.7% of total units. This remains above the national average of 11.7%, but only

marginally. Many of the ‘stand-alone’ vacant units remain empty, including a selection on

Beauchamp Place, possibly a consequence of the lengthy Covid-19 pandemic and town centre

economies only recently re-opening for business. Retailer ‘Alphatauri’ is set to shortly open on

Brompton Road, with bill board posters in Unit No.171-175 on the junction with Beauford Gardens.

Vacancies and re-occupancy across the centre should be monitored closely following the pandemic

and planning legislation change – a number of owners could be considering their occupancy

options across different land use categories.

Diversity of Uses: Town Centre Change 2008-2021

5.19 Table 5.3 below, compares the town centre composition by number of units since 2008. It is

evident that over this 13-year period the proportion of comparison goods has declined from 50.7%

to 44.0% in line with national trends; but could be of concern given the International Centre status

of Knightsbridge. Sloane Street and the eastern end of Brompton Road between Harrods and

Harvey Nichols remains the main concentration of high end and luxury clothing and footwear

retailers. The analysis suggests this downward trend is most prevalent in the western part of the

major centre, where there is a higher concentration of vacant units.

5.20 In other categories, the proportion of convenience goods and financial and business services has

fallen, whilst leisure and retail services and vacant units has increased. This should be monitored

moving forwards.

Table 5.3: Knightsbridge International Centre Diversity of Uses by Number of Units 2008-2021

No.of Units 2008 % of Total 2008 No.of Units 2021 % of Total 2021

Convenience 9 3.4% 5 2.0%

Comparison 154 57.5% 111 44.0%

Leisure Service 43 16.0% 48 19.0%

Retail Service 19 7.1% 27 10.7%

Financial & Bus. 21 7.8% 9 3.6%

Vacant 22 8.2% 52 20.6%

Accessibility

5.21 In terms of public transport accessibility levels, most of the centre is located in an area rated as

having “very good” accessibility (a score of 5). The area around Knightsbridge tube station has the

highest PTAL score of 6. Knightsbridge underground station (Piccadilly Line) is located at the

eastern end of the centre near the junction of Brompton Road and Sloane Street, and as such is

fairly central to the shopping centre. South Kensington underground station (Piccadilly, Circle and




District Lines) is located approximately 300m from the centre. The stations provide ease of access

to Knightsbridge as a shopping destination. The new K1 development will provide step-free access

to the Piccadilly Line once complete and open – expected in 2022.

Customer Views and Behaviour

5.22 The household telephone survey asked a series of qualitative attitudinal questions probing

respondents about their usage of the town centres, their likes and dislikes, and how they think

Knightsbridge International Centre could be improved in the future. A number of the questions are

multiple response, enabling the respondent to state more than one answer, and as a result some of

the percentage figures are greater than 100%. The key findings are summarised below:

i. The lower ‘frequency of visit’ reflects the centres higher order role as an International Centre,

with only 32.6% visit once a week or more often. A further 12% visit every two weeks, 11%

visit monthly, 8.3% every two months, 15% 3-4 times a year, and 11% once a year.

ii. When people visit the centre, their dwell time is relatively long, with 36% visiting for up to an

hour, 40% staying for 1-2 hours, and 21% staying for 2-4 hours.

iii. The highest response when asked about the main purpose of their trip was non-food shopping

(58%), followed by day out/walk about (16%), for work (11%), to visit cafes/restaurants (6%),

and for food shopping (5%).

iv. When asked ‘what else’ they would be doing in Knightsbridge International Centre the

responses were focused to cafes/restaurants (22%), non-food shopping (21%) and food

shopping (12%). This highlights the relatively constrained role of the higher order, focused on

high end comparison goods shopping, with linked trips to cafés and restaurants.

v. When asked what they liked about the centre, responses included close to home (25%), good

range of non-food shops (18%), the attractive environment (16%), being enroute to work

(11%), good range of quality shops (11%), and being close to friends/relatives (7%).

vi. Respondents were then asked what they disliked about the centre, with the main issues raised

being noise, traffic congestion, insufficient parking, the need for more affordable shops and

cafes/restaurants, and the constant building works.




6. King’s Road (East)

6.1 King’s Road (East) is defined as a Major Centre in the Local Plan and London Plan. It is located in

the south east of the borough, close to the boundary with The City of Westminster, and is less than

100 metres to the east of King’s Road (West) District Centre. Comprising 254 units, it is the fourth

largest centre in the borough after Kensington High Street, Knightsbridge and Portobello Road. It is

one of London’s most vibrant and fashionable shopping streets, stretching along King’s Road from

the junction with Oakley Street and Dovehouse Street at the western end to, and including, Sloane

Square at the eastern end.

6.2 Around Sloane Square, the centre also includes a number of nearby shopping streets including

Sloane Street, Cadogan Gardens, Duke of York Square, Symonds Street and Pavilion Road. At the

eastern end, the Major Centre is anchored by Peter Jones department store at Sloane Square and

the Duke of York Square development, which is home to the Saatchi Museum and Art Gallery. This

part of King’s Road is characterised by upmarket international chains and multiple retailers, and

has excellent levels of accessibility being served by the Sloane Square underground station with

direct access to the district and circle line.

6.3 A number of ‘other’ town centre uses are located at the western end of the centre, including the

Royal Borough of Kensington & Chelsea Council offices, the Council run (‘Better’) Chelsea Sports

Centre and – just outside but adjoining the boundary – is the Chelsea Fire Station. The main

supermarket within the centre is a Waitrose store located on King’s Road towards the western end

of the centre, with a large food hall in the Marks & Spencer store also on King’s Road further east

than Waitrose.






2028, with a possible new Crossrail 2 station on King’s Road. Policy CV 15 sets the vision for Sloane

Square/King’s Road in 2028:




CV 15 Vision for Sloane Square/King’s Road in 2028 The rich iconic brand and history

of King’s Road will have been consolidated to ensure it remains one of London’s most

vibrant shopping streets, containing a lively and diverse mix of shops, restaurants,

and world-class cultural attractions. It will continue to be a place where one can

shop in both independent boutiques and chain stores; a place to enjoy, to

promenade, a place which meets the day-to-day needs of local people; and a place

to experience some of the best theatre, concert, museum and gallery events that

London has to offer. Work would have commenced on a new Crossrail 2 station that

would provide Chelsea with extra underground capacity that will be required in this

part of the network, help to maintain the vitality and viability of the area’s

businesses, reduce traffic congestion along the King’s Road and improve air quality.

6.5 The London Plan identifies some opportunity for development in King’s Road (East). Whilst it does

not identify any future reclassification of King’s Road (East) in the town centre hierarchy, it records

it as having medium – rather than low – commercial and residential growth potential. The London

Plan also identifies King’s Road (East) as having mixed-use office potential; i.e. having the capacity,

demand and viability to accommodate new office development, generally as part of mixed-use

developments including residential use. This is likely to be driven by ‘possible’ sites identified for

Crossrail 2, and the Chelsea Farmers Market site – discussed below.




entertainment, food and drink, health services and shopping. King’s Road (East) NT2 is recorded as

being of regional or sub-regional significance.

6.7 The Local Plan allocated one Strategic Site for redevelopment – the Chelsea Farmer’s Market (CA9),

Figure 2.1 below. This site is located on Sydney Street at the far western end of the King’s Road

(East) Major Centre. Sydney Street is a busy street connecting the King’s Road and Fulham Road,

and is well located for public amenity and transport hubs, as well as sports, leisure and retail

facilities. The Royal Brompton & Harefield NHS Foundation Trust are seeking to redevelop this site

to provide a high quality residential-led development (minimum 50 units), with active retail

frontages facing onto a new public square.

Figure 2.1: Site Allocation CA9, Chelsea Farmers’ Market





6.8 Based on the latest survey by Experian Goad (March 2021), King’s Road (East) comprises 51,660 sq

m of retail, leisure and service floorspace across 254 units. Table 6.1 and 6.2 below set out the

diversity of uses in King’s Road (East) Major Centre compared to the national average in respect of

town centre composition. The data demonstrates that the Major Centre continues to have a

particularly strong representation of comparison goods retail operators.

Table 6.1: King’s Road (East) Major Centre Composition of Uses (Units) - 2021


Convenience 12 4.7 9.2 -4.5

Comparison 142 55.9 29.6 26.3

Leisure Service 40 15.7 24.4 -8.7

Retail Service 22 8.7 15.0 -6.3


7 2.8 9.9 -7.1

Vacant 31 12.2 11.7 0.5

Total 254 100 100 -

Table 6.2: King’s Road (East) Major Centre Composition of Uses (Floorspace sq m gross) - 2021


Convenience 3,900 7.5 9.2 -1.7

Comparison 31,160 60.3 29.6 30.7

Leisure Service 6,790 13.1 24.4 -11.3

Retail Service 2,060 4.0 15.0 -11.0


1,450 2.8 9.9 -7.1

Vacant 6,300 12.2 11.7 0.5

Total 51,660 100 100 -

6.9 The proportion of convenience goods operators (4.7%) is substantially below the national average

of 9.2%, comprising just 12 units in total. The main foodstore is Waitrose, located towards the

western end of the district centre. The store has temporarily moved to new premises a short

distance away whilst a new unit is being built within the Chelsea Manor Street redevelopment site

– currently under construction and due to open in 2022. M&S is also located in the western part of

the Major Centre, but further east than Waitrose; it includes a large ‘Simply Food’ alongside

clothing and fashion brands. Other convenience goods operators are limited, including a selection

of bakers, deli’s and health food shops – almost all of which are at the western half of the centre,

some distance from the main comparison goods shopping core.

6.10 King’s Road (East) Major Centre has a particularly strong proportion of comparison goods

operators, substantially above the national average comprising 142 units. The strongest

proportion of comparison goods operators is in the eastern half of the major centre, close to




Sloane Square and Peter Jones, with operators interspersed only occasionally by a bank,

hairdressers or café. The majority of businesses (93) are clothing and footwear retailers occupying

65% of comparison goods units; including a high number of well-known mid to high end high street

brands such as Jigsaw, Zara, All Saints, Reiss, Boden, Anthropologie, Jigsaw, Ghost, LK Bennett,

Joseph, Hobbs, Kate Spade, Calvin Klein, Sweaty Betty, and Comptoir Des Cotonniers.

6.11 The comparison goods mix also includes art galleries, book shops, charity shops, chemists, gifts,

florists, jewellers, mobile phone shops, and health and beauty products. Rymans and Smiggle the

stationers, the White Company home furnishings, and Pet Pavilion pet shop are also represented.

Peter Jones department store anchors the centre at the eastern end fronting on to Sloane Square.

6.12 Overall, the high street clothing and footwear offer still provides many of the biggest brands in

retailing, with the concentration of operators driving a strong town centre destination for visitors

and shoppers from London and beyond. The mix is, however, comprised of mid to high end high

street chains, many of which are vulnerable to current market forces.

6.13 Leisure services, retail services and financial & business services are all below the national average.

There are 40 leisure services on King’s Road (East), primarily located in the western half of the

centre, with a small number of restaurants in the peripheral streets near to Sloane Square –

including Duke of York Square. The majority of businesses are good quality restaurants offering

international cuisine. There are ten cafes, two bar/wine bars, four fast food take-aways, and two

public houses. The fast food venues include McDonalds, Pret a Manger, Five Guys, and Cru 8 Deli.

6.14 There are three health clubs / gyms offering different facilities and exercise classes including the

Chelsea Sports Centre at the western end of the high street, Kobox Sports Club to the west of

Marks & Spencer, and Powertone health club in the King’s Walk Shopping Mall.

6.15 Retail services comprise 22 operators, including a dry cleaners, health and beauty, hairdressing,

natural therapy, opticians, film developing and clothing alterations. These are predominantly

located at the western end of the major centre, within the concentration more directly targeted

and shopping and services for a more local population. Financial and business services comparison

just 2.9% of total units in the major centre, compared to a national average of 9.9%. The seven

operators comprise two estate agents and four of the major banks including Natwest, Barclays,

HSBC and Santander. The banks are located in the eastern half of the high street, within the core

comparison goods shopping area.

6.16 There are a number of ‘other’ town centre uses driving the vitality of King’s Road (East) Major

Centre; including a dentist on Lincoln Street, doctors on Sydney Street, the Royal Borough of

Kensington & Chelsea Council offices, Citizens Advice Bureau (CAB), The Saatchi Gallery, Chelsea

Library, Michael Hoppen Gallery, and the Chelsea Methodist Church.

6.17 The Experian Goad Survey (March 2021) recorded 31 vacant units, although five were ‘under

alteration’ with new businesses investing in opening new premises. A unit on Sloane Street at the

junction with Lower Sloane Street has been re-occupied by Ralph Lauren, whilst four large units

now fall within the Chelsea Major Street redevelopment site – currently under construction. A unit

previously occupied by Reiss is also now under alteration, close to the entrance of the King’s Walk

Shopping Mall, and there are other signs of new operators moving in to the centre. The up-to-date

analysis demonstrates that the vacancy rate is comfortably under the national average, with clear

signs of new investment and new operators.






evident that over this 13-year period the proportion of comparison goods has declined

considerably from 71.5% to 55.9%, with the loss of around 40 business. The analysis suggests this

trend is most prevalent in the western half of the major centre, whilst the eastern end continues to

offer a strong range of clothing and footwear retailing – particularly in the frontages closest to

Peter Jones department store.

6.19 As comparison representation has dropped, the proportion of convenience goods operators, retail

and leisure services, and vacant units has increased over the same period. These local trends are

broadly following national trends, with the high street potentially vulnerable to further decline

given the large proportion of mid to high end high street retailers – many of which are finding

current market conditions challenging. Given they are national chains, their presence on King’s

Road may be vulnerable to closure as part of a wider UK decision to cease trading. This should be

monitored moving forwards.

Table 6.3: King’s Road (East) Major Centre Diversity of Uses by Number of Units 2008-2021

No. of Units 2008 % of Total 2008 No. of Units 2021 % of Total 2021

Convenience 8 3.1 12 4.7

Comparison 183 71.5 142 55.9

Leisure Service 28 10.9 40 15.7

Retail Service 13 5.1 22 8.7

Financial & Bus. 10 3.9 7 2.8

Vacant 14 5.5 31 12.2

Total 256 100 254 100

Accessibility


having “very good” accessibility (a score of 5). The area around Sloane Square tube station has the

highest PTAL score of 6. Sloane Square underground station is located at the northern end of the

centre on the south eastern corner of Sloane Square, which is slightly removed from the main retail

offer along King’s Road (East). The station is on the Circle and District lines and provides ease of

access for visitors to the centre.




King’s Road Major Centre could be improved in the future. A number of the questions are multiple




response, enabling the respondent to state more than one answer, and as a result some of the

percentage figures are greater than 100%. The key findings are summarised below:

i. The role of King’s Road (East) as a Major Centre is reflected in a lower frequency of visit –

that would be expected of a centre of this scale. Only 18% visit twice a week or more often.

A further 35% visit once a week or once every two weeks, and 49% visit monthly or less

often. These lower frequency rates are expected for a Major Town Centre underpinned by

high street clothing, shoes and other comparison goods retailing.

ii. When analysing dwell time, 46% stayed for up to one hour; 41% stayed for between 1-3

hours; and 5% stayed between 3-4 hours.

iii. The highest response when asked about the main purpose of their trip was non-food

shopping (50%), followed by a ‘day out/window shopping’ (20%), food shopping (15%), and

to visit cafes/restaurants (5%).

iv. When asked ‘what else’ they would be doing in King’s Road (East) Major Centre there was a

wide variety of response which reflects well on the centres role, with 34% stating ‘to visit

cafes/restaurants’, 34% non-food shopping; 12% food shopping; day out/browsing (10%); to

visit bars/pubs (6%); to visit financial services (5%), to visit personal services such as the

hairdressers (2%); and for other leisure activities (2%).

v. When asked what they liked about the centre, a number of reasons were cited including ‘the

nice environment’ (26%), that it was close to home (25%), the good range of non-food shops

(24%), nice atmosphere (13%), Peter Jones department store (11%), good range of ‘high

street’ retailers (9%), good range of quality shops (9%), good cafes/restaurants (7%), and the

good range of independent shops (6%).

vi. Respondents were then asked what they disliked about the centre, the majority of

respondents said ‘nothing’; whilst a small selection cited that it was too busy/noisy,

insufficient parking, and not enough cafes/restaurants.




7. Kensington High Street

7.1 Kensington High Street is defined as a Major Centre in the Local Plan and London Plan. It runs

east/west through the centre of the borough (in the Central and North Sub-Area), to the north of

Earls Court Road District Centre and to the south of Notting Hill Gate District Centre. To the north

east of the centre is Kensington Gardens and Hyde Park. The Major Centre is the largest town

centre in the borough comprising 411 units running in linear format for approximately 900 metres

along Kensington High Street, and also including Kensington Church Street.

7.2 The Local Plan highlights that the Major Centre is an important shopping and leisure destination,

being the focus of the local community providing public and community services such as the town

hall, library, post office, pharmacies and banks and attracts visitors from outside the borough. The

centre and surrounding side streets offer a wide range of shops, cafes, bars and restaurants that

make an important contribution to the vitality of the area. Kensington High Street underground

station provides access to both the Circle and District lines and is located within the core retail area

and is accessed via a shopping arcade.

7.3 Kensington High Street has been one of London’s top retail streets for the last 100 years and has –

in recent years – seen significant retail change. Chapter 12 of the Local Plan highlights it as once

having the biggest concentration of department stores outside Oxford Street, but that these have

now been replaced by more mainstream chain stores leaving ‘an impressive architectural legacy’

within the High Street. The Local Plan adds that the side streets provide valued lower cost retail

and Kensington Church Street retains a cluster of antique shops, and part of the centre’s strength is

that it serves the day-to-day needs of local residents.

7.4 Kensington High Street is the borough’s largest town centre office location providing a range of

accommodation from drop-in desk space and small offices above shops to large footplate offices in

the former department stores. The music industry and newspaper journalism have traditionally

focused on this location, with approximately 14,000 people working in the area. Kensington High

Street is also an important cultural centre. Bookended by Kensington Gardens and Holland Park it

features attractions such as Kensington Palace, Leighton House, Linley Sambourne House, Opera

Holland Park and the Design Museum.






2028. Policy CV12 (Chapter 12) sets the Local Plan vision for Kensington High Street in 2028:

“By 2028, Kensington’s High Street will have strengthened its identity. The High Street will

have built upon its traditional role as the civic heart of the Royal Borough. New

development will have strengthened and enhanced the retail offer, especially within the

primary frontage, with landlords and developers collaborating with residents, businesses

and the Council to improve the diversity and quality of retail occupiers, as well as the

overall shopping experience. The High Street will have remained a well-connected location

for employment with offices on upper floors continuing to support the centre’s vital retail

function.




The High Street will have developed a reputation as a cultural centre of national and

international importance, as efforts to promote new and existing cultural attractions draw

increasing numbers of visitors from home and abroad. The success of the Design Museum

and the opening of a new cinema will have kick-started a revitalisation of the western end

with new shops, cafes and businesses choosing to locate there. New and improved cultural

and retail uses will have contributed to a distinctive character for the area.”

7.6 The London Plan identifies some opportunity for development in Kensington High Street. Whilst it

does not identify any future reclassification of the Major Centre in the town centre hierarchy, it

records it as having medium commercial growth potential with the opportunity to provide some

low level incremental housing intensification. The London Plan identifies Kensington High Street as

having mixed-use office potential; i.e. having the capacity, demand and viability to accommodate

new office development, generally as part of mixed-use developments including residential use.




entertainment, food and drink, health services and shopping. Kensington High Street night time

economy (NT2) is recorded as being of regional or sub-regional significance.


7.8 Based on the latest survey by Experian Goad (March 2021), Kensington High Street Major Centre

comprises 75,990 sq m of retail, leisure and service floorspace across 411 units. Table 7.1 and 7.2

below set out the diversity of uses in Kensington High Street Major Centre compared to the

national average in respect of town centre composition. The data demonstrates that the

composition of the major centre is broadly in line with national average levels, aside from the

vacancy rate which is somewhat higher as recorded in March 2021. We discuss this further below.

7.9 The proportion of convenience goods operators (6.6%) is below the national average of 9.2%,

comprising 27 operators. The offer is anchored on Kensington High Street by a large Waitrose

foodstore at the western end, on the junction with Earls Court Road, and Whole Foods at the

eastern end on the junction with Young Street. There is also a Sainsbury’s Local store at the

northern end of Kensington Church Street, and a selection of bakers/confectioners, small

convenience stores, delicatessens, and health food shops, plus a greengrocers and off licence.

There are no butchers or fishmongers, but the range of product serves both local residents and

visitors well. Local residents are also close to the borough’s main food superstores on Cromwell

Road, including Sainsbury’s and Tesco superstores.

7.10 The proportion of comparison goods operators (28.5%) is broadly in line with the national average

of 29.6%, comprising 117 retailers. A more in-depth analysis highlights that only 27% of these are

clothing and sports wear operators, including a number of well-known high street brands Zara,

H&M, Urban Outfitters, TK Maxx, M&S, Clarks Shoes, COS, Reiss, Hobbs, Jigsaw, Accessorize and

Oliver Bonas. There are still a concentration of outdoor and sports clothing shops including

Cotswolds Outdoors, Sweaty Betty, Ellis Brigham, Columbia Sportswear, Snow & Rock, Runners

Need and Decathlon. A cluster of antique shops, art galleries and lighting/textile shops are located

on Kensington Church Street, providing a concentration and specialist destination/attraction for

visitors.




Table 7.1: Kensington High Street Major Centre Composition of Uses (Units) - 2021



Comparison 117 28.5 29.6 -1.1


Retail Service 68 16.5 15.0 1.5


38 9.2 9.9 -0.7

Vacant 70 17.0 11.7 5.3

Total 411 100 100 -

Table 7.2: Kensington High Street Major Centre Composition of Uses (Floorspace sq m gross) - 2021


Convenience 7,000 9.2 9.2 0.0

Comparison 25,530 33.6 29.6 4.0

Leisure Service 17,950 23.6 24.4 -0.8

Retail Service 6,630 8.7 15.0 -6.3


6,190 8.1 9.9 -1.8

Vacant 12,690 16.7 11.7 5.0

Total 75,990 100 100 -

7.11 Leisure services are also broadly in line with the national average, comprising 91 businesses. These

include a good range of operator with a strong number of international cuisine restaurants and

cafes/coffee shops – including Starbucks, Café Nero and Costa, but also including a strong selection

of independent businesses. There are also bar/restaurants (5), juice bars (3), betting offices (2),

sandwich bars (5), and public houses (4). McDonalds and Five Guys are both represented, and

there are a number of hotels, social clubs and six health clubs/gyms.

7.12 There are 68 retail services, with numbers reasonably well balanced between dry cleaners, beauty

salons, hairdressers, natural therapy, opticians and travel agents. There is also an undertakers,

photographic film processing shop, a Post Office and clothing alterations. The major centre

appears to serve the local catchment well in this category, offering a number of key day-to-day

requirements. Kensington High Street has 38 financial and business services including

representation from all major banks – Natwest, Barclays, Halifax, Lloyds, Metro Bank, HSBC and

Santander. There are also a number of estate agents, building societies and a financial advisor.

7.13 Kensington High Street Major Centre has a number of ‘other’ town centre uses contributing to its

overall vitality and viability including a large number of offices, three dental surgery’s, the nearby

Design Museum at the western end adjacent to Holland Park, and a number of hotels. There are

three churches including the Catholic Church of Our Lady of Victories, St Mary Abbots Church, and

Our Lady of Mount Carmel and St Simon Stock at the northern end of Kensington Church Street.

Other establishments include the Kensington Central Library, the Kensington Fire Station in Old




Court Place, St Mary Abbots Primary School, and a number of government/municipal buildings and

embassy buildings.

7.14 The Experian Goad survey (March 2021) recorded 70 vacant units across Kensington High Street

Major Centre. This proportion (17%) is above the national average (11.7%), and raised some

concerns about the vitality and viability of Kensington High Street as a key Major Centre in the

borough. Experian did, however, record that 29 of these vacant units were ‘under alteration’,

suggesting a significant level of new investment into the high street. As part of this project a new

and up-to-date audit of vacant units was undertaken to further explore this key vitality indicator.

7.15 A number of major development blocks were identified, each incorporating a number of shop units

fronting Kensington High Street. These are set out below, and confirm the strong levels of

investment taking place at the current time:

▪ 263 Kensington High Street (3 vacant shop units): a mixed-use development at the far western

end of the major centre, opposite Holland Park, providing state-of-the-art cinema facilities,

modern office (creative workspace) and restaurant space, as well as new private and

affordable homes. The redevelopment of the former cinema, Post Office sorting office and

Whitlock House was granted planning permission in 2016 and the permission was

implemented at the start of 2019 with the demolition of these buildings commencing.

Development is ongoing. Image below:

▪ 201-207 Kensington High Street (3 vacant shop units): Once Woolworth’s London flagship

store and more recently Robert Dyas, planning permission was granted in 2016 for

redevelopment of the site involving retention and restoration of front facade, erection of two

additional storeys and alteration and extensions to rear first and second floor levels to provide

flats, creation of an additional basement level for a gym, alteration of existing basement level

to provide improved retail floorspace and provision of new shop fronts. Development is

ongoing. Image below:




▪ 127A Kensington High Street, ‘The Kensington Building’ (2 vacant shop units): Planning

permission was granted for the alteration, refurbishment and extension of the Boots building

and the office block behind, and the demolition of the Café Nero pavilion. This will create a

westward extension of High Street Kensington Mall/Arcade. The description of development

states that the scheme will create an anchor retail unit at basement and ground, and five

retail/café units at ground and mezzanine, as well as offices at ground to fifth floor.

Development is ongoing. Image below:




▪ 101-106 Kensington High Street (4 vacant shop units): a mixed-use development rebuilding

the former 4-storey commercial building with a retained façade to provide new office and

retail space and a small number of luxury new homes. The scheme includes an additional

mansard roof level, and will provide retail floorspace at ground level. Development is

ongoing. Image below:

▪ 165-181 Kensington High Street (3 vacant shop units): A mixed-use development, consisting

of rear extensions up to third floor to create 8 residential units and additional office space.

Retention of the retail space at ground floor with replacement shop frontages. Development

is ongoing. Image below:

▪ Lancer Square, Kensington Church Street (12 vacant shop units): Construction is nearing

completion on this mixed use scheme comprising four blocks ranging from four to seven

storeys, to include retail and cafes at ground floor, 36 apartments with pool, spa and gym, and

a new office building. Development is ongoing. Image below:




▪ 193 Kensington High Street (1 vacant shop unit): Formerly occupied by Waterstones, this site

is undergoing major refurbishment across the ground and upper floors and will create a new

modern shop floor at ground floor level. Image below:

7.16 The redevelopment blocks listed above comprise 28 previously vacant units, reducing recorded

empty vacant units from 70 to 42, or 10.2% of total units. This brings the vacancy rate down to

below the national average, assuming new modern shop formats will be let upon completion.

Beyond these development blocks, elsewhere in the centre, a number of previously vacant units

have been re-let, with new businesses including, for example, Street Burger Gordon Ramsey and

Roar Fitness Health Club, whilst a further six individual units are being refurbished for new




operators. This level of new investment and re-lets reduces the vacancy rate by a further eight

units, down to 34 units, or 8.3% of total units (below the national average of 11.7%).

7.17 The vacancy rate across a centre the size of High Street Kensington will fluctuate month to month,

but this analysis suggests that the Experian survey in March 2021 substantially over-inflated this

particular vitality indicator. A more in-depth analysis demonstrates a significant level of

investment, refurbishment and redevelopment across major sections of high street frontage,

suggesting a buoyant and healthy town centre. Future re-lets will need to be monitored in light of

new planning legislation.


7.18 Table 7.3 below, compares the town centre composition by number of units since 2008. Whilst the

analysis above confirms a continued healthy and vibrant town centre, it is evident that over this 13-

year period, the major centre has experienced a substantial fall in the number and proportion of

comparison goods operators and a strong increase in leisure and retail services, and also

convenience and financial and business services.

7.19 The data suggests a significant increase in vacant units, but the most up-to-date analysis confirms

that the proportion of unoccupied units has only increased by less than 2%. The reoccupation of

units being refurbished and redeveloped will need to be monitored over the next 12-24 months to

understand the actual position in respect of vacant units and town centre composition.

Table 7.3: Kensington High Street Major Centre Diversity of Uses by Number of Units 2008-2021



Comparison 163 49.5 117 28.5




Vacant 22 6.7 70 17.0

Total 329 100 411 100

Convenience examples: bakers, butchers, supermarket, fishmongers, grocers, newsagent;

Comparison examples: clothing, footwear, chemist, charity, cycle shop, DIY/electrical, florist, mobile phone;

Leisure Service examples: café, bars, restaurants, hot food take-away, bars/wine bars;

Financial & Business examples: banks, building societies, estate agents, employment and careers;

Retail Service examples: dry cleaners, opticians, Post Office, health and beauty, hairdressers.

Accessibility

7.20 In terms of public transport accessibility levels, most of the centre is located in an area rated as having

“excellent” accessibility (a score of 6). The peripheral area to the west has a lower PTAL score of 5.

Public transport accessibility to Kensington High Street is excellent. The underground station is located




within the core retail/shopping area and is accessed via a shopping arcade. The underground station is

on both the Circle and District lines. A significant number of bus routes pass through the centre, linking

the centre with most parts of the Borough as well as Central and West London.


7.21 The household telephone survey asked a series of qualitative attitudinal questions probing respondents

about their usage of the town centres, their likes and dislikes, and how they think Kensington High

Street Major Centre could be improved in the future. A number of the questions are multiple response,

enabling the respondent to state more than one answer, and as a result some of the percentage figures

are greater than 100%. The key findings are summarised below:

i. Frequency of visit is reasonably high, with 51% visiting the Major Centre at least once a week or

more often. A further 11% visit every two weeks, 13% visit monthly, and 21% visit once every two

months or less often. Within that figure, only 3% visit twice a year, and 2% visit once a year. The

figures suggest that Kensington High Street has a relatively tight catchment predominantly

comprising the local area and some living in the wider west London sub-region.

ii. In terms of dwell time, 51% of respondents stay in the major centre for up to an hour, whilst 36%

stay between 1-3 hours, and 7% for 3-5 hours. This suggests a relatively strong dwell time, driven

by the broad range of shopping and leisure and retail service providers.


(36%), followed by food shopping (31%), day out/browsing (15%), to visit cafes/restaurants (5%),

and for work purposes (4%).

iv. When asked ‘what else’ they would be doing in Kensington High Street the range of responses

including non-food shopping (39%), to visit cafes/restaurants (29%), for food shopping (15%), for a

day out/browsing (7%), to visit financial services such as banks (6%), and for other leisure activities

(4%).

v. When asked what they liked about the centre, there was a broad range of positive responses

including the good range of non-food shops (28%), that it was close to home (23%), the

attractive/nice environment (14%), ‘you can get everything you need’ (8%), nice atmosphere (7%),

compact (5%), easy to get to by bus (5%), vibrant/diverse (5%), and the good range of high street

retailers (4%).

vi. Respondents were then asked what they disliked about the centre, half stated ‘nothing’, whilst a

number of others cited traffic congestion, too many empty shops, need better range of non-

food/high street/independent shops, too busy/noisy, and poor cycle paths/not enough cycle paths.




8. Earls Court Road

8.1 Earls Court Road is defined as a District Centre in the Local Plan and London Plan. It is located in

the west of the borough (South Sub-Area), bordering the London Borough of Hammersmith and

Fulham. The centre comprises 125 shop units, and is predominantly linear in form running along

Earl’s Court Road from Old Brompton Road in the south to the junction of West Cromwell Road and

Cromwell Road in the north. The eastern entrance of Earls Court underground station leads

directly into the southern part of the district centre which provides a range of shops, restaurants,

cafes and pubs, primarily meeting the needs of people that live in the area and visitors.

8.2 Figure 8.1 below illustrates the location of Earls Court Road District Centre within the wider Earls

Court area, including the location of the Earls Court and West Kensington Opportunity Area. The

western entrance of Earls Court underground station leads directly to Warwick Road and the

former Earls Court Exhibition Centre; the Exhibition Centre has now been demolished (2017)

following approved outline planning permission in 2013. The now vacant site (Policy Site Allocation

CA4) lies within the Opportunity Area. Policy CV8 sets out the Earls Court future vision:

“By 2028, the former exhibition centre will be transformed into a vibrant new

urban village, which reflects the crescents and squares nearby. It will link to a

strengthened Earl’s Court Road District Centre and the wider Earl’s Court and West

Kensington Opportunity Area. A new cultural offer on the site of the former

Exhibition Centre will draw on its legacy and will add to the activity and interest of

the area continuing to make Earl’s Court a lively cultural destination.”

Figure 8.1: Earl’s Court, Key Issues and Opportunities (Local Plan, 2019)

[Local Plan 2019, Page 77]




8.3 The London Plan does not identify any future reclassification of Earls Court District Centre in the

town centre hierarchy, and records it as having low commercial growth potential with the

opportunity to provide some incremental housing intensification. The London Plan concludes it

should protect existing office functions, but does not have the capacity, demand or viability to

accommodate new office development. The District Centre is identified as falling within a Strategic

Area for Regeneration; i.e. where the impacts of inequality and causes of deprivation are

particularly concentrated. Policy SD10 states that Boroughs should identify Strategic Areas for

Regeneration in their Local Plans and develop policies that are based on a thorough understanding

of the demographics of communities and their needs.

8.4 Nearby, the former Earls Court Exhibition Site is, however, identified for development and

regeneration (Policy CA4). Within the borough, planning permission has been granted for a mixed-

use development which includes up to 930 residential units including affordable housing, up to

10,132 sq m Class B1, 3,414 sq m retail, 7,381 sq m hotel and 6,067 sq m of education, culture,

community and leisure floorspace. The Local Plan confirms that the planning permission has been

implemented. Policy CA4 emphasises the importance of improved linkages to surrounding and

neighbouring areas, including Earls Court District Centre.

8.5 The overarching aims for Earls Court District Centre and the Opportunity Area are set out in detail

in the Local Plan. These include the creation of a new urban quarter within the Earl’s Court and

West Kensington Opportunity Area providing jobs, homes and community facilities; and support for

the existing Earl’s Court Road District Centre, helping it to establish a new identity following the

closure of the Exhibition Centre. Policy aims to prioritise good connections between Earl’s Court

Road District Centre and the new urban quarter, whilst ensuring that the new centre within the

Opportunity Area serves the day-to-day needs of the development and is of a scale that does not

have an unacceptable impact on the vitality and viability of the existing centres in Kensington and

Chelsea.

8.6 Local Plan Site Allocations within the Earls Court area are set out in Table 4.1 below, and include

the Earls Court Exhibition Centre and a number of sites on Warwick Road for residential

development. Both site allocations should benefit the vitality and viability of Earls Court Road

District Centre in the future through new residential communities, business and office workers, and

visitors to the newly developed cultural and leisure facilities on the Earls Court Exhibition Centre

site.

Table 8.1: Earls Court Site Allocations

Site Allocation Land Uses

Policy CA4

Earls Court Exhibition Centre

(Figure 8.1 above)

Minimum 900 residential units including affordable housing, minimum 10,000 sq m Class B1 offices, retail, hotel, leisure, social and community floorspace, and a significant cultural facility.

Policy CA5

Warwick Road Sites

(Figure 8.1 above)

Physically separated from Earl’s Court by the Cromwell Road these sites lie on the western boundary of the borough bordering the London Borough of Hammersmith and Fulham, adjacent to the West London line.

Allocated for residential and associated community, leisure and amenity facilities. A minimum of 1,219 new residential units.

Source: Local Plan, 2019





8.7 Based on the latest survey by Experian Goad (March 2021), Earls Court Road District Centre

comprises 13,590 sq m of retail, leisure and service floorspace across 125 units. Table 8.2 and 8.3

below set out the diversity of uses in Earls Court Road District Centre compared to the national

average in respect of town centre composition. The data demonstrates that the district centre has

a particularly strong representation of leisure service operators.

Table 8.2: Earls Court Road District Centre Composition of Uses (Units) - 2021


Convenience 17 13.6 9.2 4.4

Comparison 12 9.6 29.6 -20.0

Leisure Service 52 41.6 24.4 17.2

Retail Service 23 18.4 15.0 3.4


14 11.2 9.9 1.3

Vacant 7 5.6 11.7 -6.1

Total 125 100 100 -

Source: Experian Goad, March 2021

Table 8.3: Earls Court Road District Centre Composition of Uses (Floorspace sq m gross) - 2021


Convenience 2,470 18.2 9.2 9.0

Comparison 1,960 14.4 29.6 -15.2

Leisure Service 5,520 40.6 24.4 16.2

Retail Service 1,320 9.7 15.0 -5.3


1,640 12.1 9.9 2.2

Vacant 680 5.0 11.7 -6.7

Total 13,590 100 100 -

Source: Experian Goad, March 2021

8.8 The proportion of convenience goods operators (13.6%) is above the national average,

representing 17 shop units in total. The district centre benefits from three strong anchors

distributed throughout the main high street including M&S Simply Food at the far south of the

centre; Co-op towards the middle just north of the underground station; and Sainsbury’s Local at

the far north of the centre. Sainsbury’s Local is the largest store, open from 7am-11pm and

offering fresh coffee, a bakery and cash machine outside. Both Co-op and M&S open from 7am-

10pm.

8.9 The remaining 14 units are occupied by two off licences, Holland & Barrett health food shop, and a

number of small ethnic mini-markets – a number of which are located on Kenway Road and

Hogarth Road just off the main high street. There are no independent butchers or fishmongers




represented, but Greggs and Paul Bakers both occupy units in the district centre. The closest major

food superstores for those living in close proximity to Earls Court District Centre are Tesco, West

Cromwell Road and Sainsbury’s, Cromwell Road. The closest Waitrose stores are Kensington High

Street to the north, and Gloucester Road and Old Brompton Road to the east.

8.10 Earls Court Road has a limited comparison goods shopping offer – consistent with its district centre

role. Of the 125 shop units, just 12 are occupied by comparison retailers including a charity shop,

two chemists, a stationers, one computer equipment provider, one shoe shop, one ladies clothes

shop, a household/electrical variety shop, three mobile phone shops, and one health and beauty

product business. Multiple retailers include Boots the Chemist, Robert Dyas, Ryman, Connect, and

Vodafone. Boots, Ryman and Robert Dyas are spread throughout the main high street on the

western side – the same side as the underground station – providing good anchors spread out at

different locations.

8.11 Earls Court District Centre has a particularly strong provision of leisure service operators – 17.2%

above the national average; occupying 52 shop units. Restaurants comprise the greatest sector

with 22 operators including Zizzi, Franco Manca, Nandos; and a number of international cuisine

operators including American, Mediterranean, Italian, Japanese, Chinese, Indian, Thai, and French.

8.12 The district centre has just four cafes including Costa and Caffe Nero; one bar/wine bar (Jimmy’s

Grill); five public houses; the My Place nightclub and hotel; two further small hotels, one tanning

shop and one gym (Soho Gym). William Hill, Coral and BetFred betting shops are all represented;

and there are nine hot food take-aways including McDonalds, Burger King and KFC. Other take-

aways include sushi and noodle bars.

8.13 The proportion of financial and business service operators is broadly in line with the national

average, represented by 14 businesses. Despite national trends, there remain four banks in the

centre including Barclays, Lloyds, Metro and Bank of the Phillippine Islands, with other operators

including one employment agency, a pawnbroker, five estate agents, two bureau de change and a

financial services provider. Both Barclays and Lloyds bank are in the south of the centre, whilst

Metro Bank occupies a large anchor unit in the far north of the district centre, at the junction with

Cromwell Road.

8.14 There are 22 retail service operators in the district centre, including five dry cleaners/laundrettes,

sixteen health & beauty salons, and two travel agents. Of the sixteen health & beauty salons,

seven are hairdressers, six are beauty salons, and three are natural therapy operators. The nearest

Opticians and Post Office are outside the district centre, further south on Earls Court Road.

8.15 Earls Court District Centre currently has only 7 vacant units/5.6% of total, which is substantially

lower than the national average of 11.7%. The vacant units are scattered throughout the centre

and there are no identified concentrations, with the largest unit being the former Natwest Bank in

the south of the centre, adjacent to Barclays Bank which continues to operate. Smaller vacant

units elsewhere include two small units with the underground station façade, a unit between

Franca Manca and Coral - previously occupied by Carphone Warehouse, two small units in the

north of the centre, and one very small unit off pitch on Hogarth Place.

8.16 There are a number of additional uses that assist in underpinning the vitality and viability of Earls

Court District Centre. These include two health and well-being centres, two dental surgery’s, an

internet zone/access provider, a taxi hire company, and the Earls Court Underground Station. The




analysis has identified that most of the key anchors, multiple retailers and the underground station

entrance are on the western side of Earls Court Road.



evident that over this 13-year period, the district centre has experienced a substantial increase in

the number of leisure operators at the expense of comparison goods and retail service businesses.

The number of convenience goods operators and vacant units have both fallen by two, whilst the

number of financial & business services has remained the same at fourteen.

8.18 Nevertheless, the centre remains at almost full occupancy, and the trend towards a stronger

leisure representation and a declining comparison goods sector is consistent with national trends.

Earls Court District Centre is not necessarily intended to provide a strong comparison goods offer

given it’s position in the town centre hierarchy and proximity to higher order town centres offering

these type of goods. Moving forwards, the centre should aim to retain a mix of uses to meet a

variety of everyday retail and service requirements. As noted earlier in this section, Earls Court

District Centre will benefit from new residential development on Warwick Road and the

development of the Earls Court Exhibition Centre site over the next 10-15 years.

Table 8.4: Earls Court Road District Centre Diversity of Uses by Number of Units 2008-2021



Comparison 15 11.5 12 9.6



Financial & Bus. 14 10.8 14 11.2

Vacant 9 6.9 7 5.6

Total 130 100 125 100






Accessibility

8.19 In terms of public transport accessibility levels, the centre is located in an area rated as having

“very good” accessibility (a score of 5). The main entrance to Earl’s Court underground station is

situated on Earl’s Court Road providing access to the District and Piccadilly lines. The underground

station provides direct access to the core retail frontage, and a second entrance provides access to

the west and the Exhibition Centre development site. The station will provide strong linkages

between the town centre and new development coming forwards to the west. West Brompton




train and underground station is also within close proximity to the centre. There are also a number

of bus routes which pass along Earl’s Court Road, linking the centre with other parts of the Borough

as well as Central and West London.




Earls Court Road District Centre could be improved in the future. A number of the questions are



vii. Earls Court Road District Centre performs the role of a local shopping centre, and consistent

with this role has a relatively high frequency of visit, with 62.4% visiting 3-4 times a week. A

further 6.3% visit once a week, and 12.5% every two weeks. A small number of people visit

less regularly, with 11.4% visiting once every two months, and 7.4% visiting twice a year. Later

questions confirm that the less frequent visits are predominantly driven by leisure uses and

medical services.

viii. The role as a local shopping centre is also reflected in identified dwell time, with shorter visits

compared to the larger major town centres. When asked, 62.4% stay less than 30 minutes,

and 13.3% between 30 and 60 minutes. A small number do, however, visit the centre for

longer; with 5.5% staying between 2-3 hours; 7.4% 3-4 hours; and 11.4% up to 6 hours. The

longer trips are likely driven by linked trips to food shops and hair and beauty, for example,

and/or visiting cafes and restaurants, or friends and family.

ix. The highest response when asked about the main purpose of their trip was food shopping

(75.7%), followed by leisure activities (11.4%), window shopping/day out (7.4%) and medical

services (5.5%). No-one asked uses any click and collect services, suggesting that there are few

or none available.

x. When asked ‘what else’ they would be doing in Earls Court District Centre there was a wide

variety of response which reflects well on the centres role, with 55.5% stating the ‘school run’;




20.7% non-food shopping/other services; 11.4% pubs/bars; 11.4% cafes/restaurants; 5.5% hair

and beauty; and 5.5% food shopping.

xi. When asked what they liked about the centre, over half noted the good range of shops and

services; 7% stated that it was close to home; 7% said that it was familiar to them; and 7% said

that it was compact.

xii. Respondents were then asked what they disliked about the centre with 14% stating that it was

too noisy with too much traffic congestion; 11.4% stated that there was insufficient parking;

half of respondents noted the poor environment, threat of crime and homelessness/beggars.




9. Fulham Road (West)

9.1 Fulham Road (West) is defined as a District Centre in the Local Plan and London Plan. It is located

in the south west of the borough, close to the boundary with the London Borough of Hammersmith

and Fulham. It is the smallest centre in the borough comprising 121 units, and is linear in layout

running east / west along Fulham Road (A308). In addition to general shopping and service

provision, the centre also contains the Chelsea and Westminster Hospital fronting on to Fulham

Road, and the Picturehouse Cinema (formerly Cineworld). On the southside of Fulham Road, the

retail frontage is considerably shorter, stopping at the hospital, and characterised instead by

residential uses through to Gunter Grove in the west.

9.2 The London Plan does not identify any future reclassification of Fulham Road (West) District Centre

in the town centre hierarchy, and records it as having low commercial growth potential with the

opportunity to provide some low level incremental housing intensification. The London Plan

concludes it should protect existing office functions, but does not have the capacity, demand or

viability to accommodate new office development. The Local Plan does not allocate any strategic

development sites in the district centre, and the London Plan does not identify the centre as falling

within a Strategic Area for Regeneration.


9.3 Based on the latest survey by Experian Goad (March 2021), Fulham Road (West) comprises 18,420

sq m gross of retail, leisure and service floorspace across 121 units. Table 9.1 and 9.2 below set out

the diversity of uses in Fulham Road (West) District Centre compared to the national average in

respect of town centre composition. The data demonstrates that the district centre has a

particularly strong representation of convenience and leisure service operators, which includes

small foodstores and newsagents, cafes, restaurants and bars.

9.4 The proportion of convenience goods operators (13.2%) is above the national average of 9.2%,

representing 16 units in total. This is a strong vitality indicator for a district centre. The centre has

four key anchors, including M&S Simply Food and Sainsbury’s Local in the east, Tesco Express

opposite the Chelsea and Westminster Hospital, and another Sainsbury’s Local to the west of the

centre. M&S is open from 8am-10pm and offers a click and collect service, and the adjoining




Sainsbury’s is open from 7am to midnight. The Tesco Express store is open 24 hours and has an

external cash machine available; and the Sainsbury’s Local to the west of the district centre is open

from 7am-11pm.

Table 9.1: Fulham Road (West) District Centre Composition of Uses (Units) - 2021



Comparison 27 22.3 29.6 -7.3




9 7.4 9.9 -2.5

Vacant 12 9.9 11.7 -1.8

Total 121 100 100 -

Table 9.2: Fulham Road (West) District Centre Composition of Uses (Floorspace sq m gross) - 2021


Convenience 3,020 16.4 9.2 7.2

Comparison 4,050 22.0 29.6 -7.6

Leisure Service 7,540 40.9 24.4 16.5

Retail Service 1,400 7.6 15.0 -7.4


860 4.7 9.9 -5.2

Vacant 1,550 8.4 11.7 -3.3

Total 18,420 100 100 -

9.5 The remaining 12 convenience goods units provide a good quality product range, including Oree,

Gail’s and Le Pain Quotidien bakers, Wyndhams butchers, two good quality deli’s, a general grocer,




health food shop and two off licenses. The quality of business and contribution to the high street

remains strong.

9.6 Consistent with a district centre role, Fulham Road (West) has a below average proportion of

comparison goods operators – 22.3% compared to a national average of 29.6%. The mix of

business does include a high proportion of specialist independent retailers selling a variety of high

end comparison goods, including a strong representation of interior decorations and clothing.

Boots the Chemist and Rymans Stationers are represented, alongside two fine art galleries, Chelsea

Wild Florist, Richer Sounds high end home entertainment, Le Creuset household goods, and a high

end bridal shop. Comparison operators are predominantly located on Fulham Road and Park Walk.

9.7 Fulham Road (West) has a particularly high proportion of leisure services, occupying a third of all

units in the district centre; 9.5% above the national average. There is a strong representation of

international restaurants – Italian, Japanese, Thai, French, Asian, American and Middle Eastern –

bars, cafes, juice bars and an ice cream parlour. Two good quality public houses are represented

(The King’s Arms and Chelsea Corner), Maggie’s Nightclub is located between Park Walk and Callow

Street, and coffee/sandwich shops Starbucks, Pret a Manger and Café Nero are all trading. The

majority of businesses are independent in the high end category.

9.8 The Fulham Road Picturehouse is located on the corner of Fulham Road and Drayton Gardens.

Offering a café and members bar and internal vintage theme, the 1930’s listed building was

refurbished for opening on 8th December 2019. The district centre also has 7 gyms/health clubs

and a solarium.

9.9 The proportion of retail services is marginally below the national average (-1.8%) offering 16

businesses; 75% of which are occupied by beauty salons and hairdressers. There are also two dry

cleaners, a Post Office and a Funeral Directors. Similarly, the proportion of financial and business

operators is marginally below the national average (-2.5%), comprised entirely of door and window

businesses and estate agents. There are no banks, building societies or employment services, with

shoppers relying on external cash points at Chelsea and Westminster Hospital and Sainsbury’s Local

at the far west of the high street. Easy Hub occupies large premises on Fulham Road, just west of




the Picturehouse; with premises offering co-working and flexible working space, a coffee shop and

financial services.

9.10 The vacancy rate on Fulham Road (West) is below the national average (-1.8%) with 12 vacant

units. These units are scattered throughout the centre and observed as being equally spaced from

east to west. Their reoccupation should be monitored in the context of the new Use Classes Order

and permitted development rights. All units are standard/small in size, and there are no

particularly large floorplates; the low vacancy rate is a positive vitality indicator for the district

centre.

9.11 ‘Other’ town centre uses include the Royal Mail Postal Sorting Office, the Women’s Wellness

Centre, two dentists, Our Lady of Dolours R C Church, Servite Roman Catholic Primary School and

Petra’s Place – a special needs and autism support centre for children.



evident that over this 13-year period, the district centre has experienced a substantial increase in

the number of leisure operators (+8) at the expense of comparison goods businesses (-11). The

number of convenience goods has remained static, whilst retail services and financial and business

services have experienced a very small fall in number. The number and proportion of vacant units

has risen slightly from 9 to 12 (+2.6%).

9.13 As observed in other centre across the borough, the centre remains at almost full occupancy, and

the trend towards a stronger leisure representation and a declining comparison goods sector is

consistent with national trends. Fulham Road (West) continues to provide a high end offer in both

the comparison and leisure sectors, with a number of ‘other’ town centre uses driving footfall,

diversity and vitality. The centre continues to offer a mix of uses consistent with a district centre

role, aside from the absence of banks and building societies.

Table 9.3: Fulham Road (West) District Centre Diversity of Uses by Number of Units 2008-2021



Comparison 38 30.6 27 22.3




Vacant 9 7.3 12 9.9

Total 124 100 121 100









Accessibility


having “good” accessibility (a score of 4). Along with Portobello Road and Westbourne Grove, the

centre is the least accessible of the main centres, and there is no underground station serving this

high street. However, Fulham Broadway, South Kensington, Earl’s Court, Gloucester Road and

Sloane Square underground stations are all located within walking distance from the centre to the

north, east and west, with direct access to the District, Circle and Piccadilly lines.




Earls Court Road District Centre could be improved in the future. A number of the questions are



i. Fulham Road (West) is clearly performing the role of a local shopping centre, with 56.5%

visiting between once a week and every day; 12% visit every day. This suggests the centre is

offering a day-to-day product range and services required and/or used regularly. A further

36.8% visit regularly, between once a month and once every two weeks. The remaining 6.7%

visited less frequently, 3-4 times or once a year.

ii. The role as a local shopping centre is also reflected in dwell time, with shorter visits compared

to the larger and major town centres. When asked, 32% stay for up to 30 minutes, 17% stay

for between 30 minutes and 1 hour, 22% stay for 1-2 hours, and 8.5% stay for 2-3 hours. The

longer trips are likely to be driven by linked trips between the diverse range of uses including

shopping, health and beauty and eating/drinking, for example.

iii. When asked about the main purpose of their visit, the range of response reflects the strong

diversity of uses across the centre. The highest response was food shopping (42%), followed

by non-food shopping (13%), leisure activities (9%), a day out/window shopping (9%), work

(7%), to visit a medical service/hospital (6%), ‘other’ service providers (including estate and

travel agents) (5%), and cafes/restaurants (4%).

iv. The highest response when asked ‘what else’ they would be doing on Fulham Road, the highest

response was non-food shopping (25%) followed by leisure activities/cafes and restaurants

(20%), food shopping (16%), day out/window shopping (10.7%), to get petrol (9%), to meet

friends (9%), to visit a medical service/hospital (8%), to shop at the market (8%), to visit

bars/pubs (6%) and to visit hair/beauty salons (5%).

v. When asked what they liked about the centre, over a third stated that it was ‘close to home’;

9% said that it was ‘familiar’; 20% stated that it had a good range of independent shops; 17%

noted the market; 12% said the good range of ‘high street’ retailers; 10% said the good range

of non-food shops; whilst others stated that you can get everything you need (9%), good

cafes/restaurants (8%), good range of clothes shops (9%), good range of quality shops (8%),

close to work (6%), and that the centre is compact (6%).

vi. When asked what they disliked about the centre, 87% stated ‘nothing’. This is the highest

response of all the main centres in the borough, highlighting visitor/shopper satisfaction and




loyalty to the district centre. Only 4% stated that it was too busy, 5% suggested that it needed

more shops, and 5% said that it need better quality cafes.




10. King’s Road (West)

10.1 King’s Road (West) is defined as a District Centre in the Local Plan and London Plan. It is located in

the far south west of the borough, just north of the River Thames and the London Borough of

Wandsworth and less than 100 metres from the boundary of King’s Road (East) Major Centre. The

district centre is linear in layout running east / west along King’s Road (A3217) from the junction

with Limerston Street to the west, to the junction with Glebe Place/Manresa Road to the east. It is

bound by residential areas to the north, south, east and west.

10.2 The district centre has 131 shop units in total, and in addition to general shopping and service

provision, the centre also contains the new Everyman Cinema on the junction of Old Church Street

and King’s Road, and the well-known ‘Bluebird’ café/restaurant. Retail and service businesses

across the district centre are predominantly high end, luxury brands. The Local Plan identifies the

majority of King’s Road (West) shopping centre as being within a conservation area, and does not

allocate any strategic development sites in or adjoining the district centre.

10.3 The London Plan does not identify any future reclassification of King’s Road (West) District Centre

in the town centre hierarchy, and records it as having ‘medium’ commercial growth potential with

the opportunity to provide some incremental housing intensification – albeit no potential sites are

allocated. The London Plan concludes that the district centre should protect existing office

functions, generally within smaller units, but does not have the capacity, demand or viability to

accommodate new office development.

10.4 The London Plan identifies King’s Road (West) as falling within a Strategic Area for Regeneration,

i.e. where the impacts of inequality and causes of deprivation are particularly concentrated. Policy

SD10 states that Boroughs should identify Strategic Areas for Regeneration in their Local Plans and

develop policies that are based on a thorough understanding of the demographics of communities

and their needs.


10.5 Based on the latest survey by Experian Goad (March 2021), King’s Road (West) District Centre

comprises 17,940 sq m gross of retail, leisure and service floorspace across 131 units. Table 10.1

Bluebird Café/Restaurant




and 10.2 below set out the diversity of uses in King’s Road (West) compared to the national

average in respect of town centre composition. In contrast to national trends and unlike most

other centres in the borough, the data demonstrates that the district centre has a particularly

strong representation of comparison goods retailers, and a below average representation of all

other categories.

Table 10.1: King’s Road (West) District Centre Composition of Uses (Units) - 2021



Comparison 57 43.5 29.6 13.9




7 5.3 9.9 -4.6

Vacant 13 9.9 11.7 -1.8

Total 131 100 100 -

Table 10.2: King’s Road (West) District Centre Composition of Uses (Floorspace sq m gross) - 2021


Convenience 540 3.0 9.2 -6.2

Comparison 7,740 43.1 29.6 13.5

Leisure Service 4,970 27.7 24.4 3.3

Retail Service 1,930 10.8 15.0 -4.2


990 5.5 9.9 -4.4

Vacant 1,770 9.9 11.7 -1.8

Total 17,940 100 100 -

10.6 The proportion of convenience goods operators (4.6%) is below the national average of 9.2%,

representing just 6 units in total. There is one small Londis convenience store at the far eastern

end of the district centre, but no further multiple operators trading. The remaining five units are

occupied by high end, luxury bakers (2), confectioners (1), deli (1), and an off licence (1).

10.7 The proportion of comparison goods operators is 13.9% above the national average, comprising 57

businesses. Aside from the six charity shops, these predominantly comprise high end luxury brands

and goods, including art galleries, interior decorations, bridal shops, clothing, furniture, gifts,

electrical appliances, home entertainment and antiques. The district centre has two mainstream

multiple retailers including Rymans Stationers and Lloyds Chemist. There is also a bookshop,

nursery/baby goods, cycles and repairs, computer equipment and a pet shop. Comparison units

are spread evenly throughout the full extent of the district centre.

10.8 The proportion of leisure service operators is marginally below the national average, comprising 30

businesses. Again, these are quality high end operators anchored by the Bluebird Restaurant, a

renowned and long established British restaurant. Over half of the leisure services recorded are




international cuisine restaurants, and there are also three juice bars, a social club, four

bar/restaurants, and three health clubs/gyms. The district centre also benefits from the newly

developed Everyman Cinema, a mixed-use residential development on the junction of King’s

Road/Old Church Street. The centre has very few cafes aside from within the deli’s and

confectioners.

10.9 The proportion of retail services is marginally below the national average, comprising 18 units.

These include two dry cleaners, a Post Office, two natural therapy centres, and a number of

hairdressers and beauty salons. The proportion of financial and business services is also below the

national average (-4.6%), but includes Barclays Bank, Mail Boxes business services, Kall Kwik

printing and photocopying, and two estate agents. The Post Office and bank is a good asset for a

district centre and local day-to-day requirements. This type of representation should be monitored

moving forwards.

10.10 There are 13 recorded vacant units in King’s Road (West) District Centre, albeit a number of these

are ‘under alteration’. A large unit opposite the newly opened Everyman Cinema has already be

reoccupied by the high end Wine Workshop and Kitchen restaurant, whilst the nearby Cadogan

Arms Public House is being refurbished to a high standard and is due to reopen shortly. Three

further vacant units formed part of the Everyman Cinema wider development site, and have now

been redeveloped for residential units alongside the cinema. Other vacant units have been

reoccupied by a Pet Groomers and a high end ladies fashion wear. The analysis concludes that the

vacancy rate is low, and turnover is swift with new businesses contributing strongly to the

character and diversity of the area.

10.11 Beyond the district centre boundary, the ‘town centre’ frontage continues uninterrupted, flowing

into a defined ‘Neighbourhood Shopping Centre’ to the west, and the King’s Road Major Centre to

the east. The nearby neighbourhood centre offers a range of ‘other’ town centre uses including

the Good Practice Health Centre, dentists, children’s nursery’s, dry cleaners, chemists, butchers. At

the far western end is the World’s End Garden Centre and a large Co-Op foodstore.


10.12 Table 10.3 below compares the town centre composition by number of units and proportion as a

percentage between 2008 and 2021. It is evident that the proportion of convenience and




comparison businesses has fallen marginally over this period, with the greatest difference in the

number and proportion of comparison goods operators (-10.8%), although this translates into the

loss of only six units. The leisure and retail service and financial and business categories have all

grown in presence across the district centre, and whilst the data suggests that vacancies have

increased, the analysis above confirms that the vacancy rate is actually very low, with vacant units

being reoccupied swiftly by quality operators. Overall, the diversity and mix over this period has

been relatively stable.

Table 10.3: King’s Road (West) District Centre Diversity of Uses by Number of Units 2008-2021



Comparison 63 54.3 57 43.5




Vacant 9 7.8 13 9.9

Total 116 100 131 100






Accessibility


“good” or “very good” accessibility (a score of 4 or 5). Sloane Square underground station is

located some distance away at the eastern end of King’s Road within King’s Road (East) Major

Centre. South Kensington station is also located within close proximity to the north of the centre.

These stations are on the Piccadilly, Circle and District lines.




King’s Road (West) District Centre could be improved in the future. A number of the questions are



i. King’s Road (West) district centre is performing the role of a local shopping centre and also a

key attractor destination offering a specialist high end and luxury product range. This is

reflected in the frequency of visit recorded, with around half stating at least once a week or




more frequently, and the other half visiting less often, i.e. every two weeks, every two months

or 3-4 times a year.

ii. Dwell time is strong, with 50.8% staying for between 30 minutes and 2 hours, and a further

30% staying between 2 and 4 hours. This demonstrates the strength of the comparison goods

offer combined with the linked trip opportunities of restaurants, bars and health and beauty.


(34%), followed by visiting cafes/restaurants (18%), day out/meeting friends and family (17%),

for food shopping (12%), for work (11%) and to visit the doctors/dentist (8%).

iv. When asked ‘what else’ they would be doing in King’s Road (West) District Centre the range of

response was relatively limited compared to some other centres, with 30% stating

cafes/restaurants, 26% non-food shopping, 16% food shopping, 9% bars/pubs, and 4%

hairdressers/beauty salons. Linked trips between comparison goods shopping and having

brunch/lunch/dinner in the restaurants appears to be the main role of the district centre.

v. When asked what they liked about the centre, 30% stated that it was ‘close to home’, 14%

liked the good range of non-food shops, the compact nature of the centre and the clean, well

maintained streets, 13% stated the good range of independent shops, and 9% stated the good

cafes and restaurants.

vi. When asked what they disliked about the centre, the most frequent response related to

parking, including insufficient provision, being too expensive, too much permit parking, and

the constant road works causing congestion.




11. Brompton Cross

11.1 Brompton Cross – sometimes referred to as Fulham Road (East) – is defined as a District Centre in

the Local Plan and London Plan. It is located in the south east of the borough, north of King’s Road

(East) Major Centre and south of South Kensington District Centre. Is the seventh largest centre in

the borough comprising 175 units, and is focussed around a junction of roads which provides links

between South Kensington, Chelsea and Knightsbridge. The streets which come together at

Brompton Cross include Fulham Road (A308), Brompton Road, Walton Street, Draycott Avenue,

Sloane Avenue, Lucan Place and Pelham Street.

11.2 The district centre offers a range of high end quality international comparison clothing and

footwear retailers, and is anchored by operators including The Conran Shop, Bibendum restaurant

and Joseph clothing. The high end nature of the shopping and leisure offer attracts visitors from

wider London and beyond. Adjoining the district centre at the western end of Fulham Road is the

Royal Marsden Hospital.

11.3 The London Plan does not identify any future reclassification of Brompton Cross District Centre in

the town centre hierarchy, and records it as having medium commercial (Use Class E) and

residential growth potential, albeit no specific sites are allocated. The London Plan concludes there

is demand for existing office functions, generally within smaller units, but does not have the

capacity, demand or viability to accommodate new office development. The London Plan does not

identify the centre as falling within a Strategic Area for Regeneration; and the Local Plan does not

allocate any strategic development sites in or adjoining the district centre.

11.4 When setting the vision for the wider South Kensington area, Chapter 14 of the Local Plan ‘seeks to

maintain the function of Brompton Cross as a high quality specialist boutique retail centre with

international appeal’. Improvements to walking routes and signage between South Kensington

cultural core are highlighted as a key objective and priority for implementation.


11.5 Based on the latest survey by Experian Goad (March 2021), Brompton Cross comprises 24,590 sq m

gross of retail, leisure and service floorspace across 175 units. Table 11.1 and 11.2 below set out

the diversity of uses in Brompton Cross District Centre compared to the national average in respect




of town centre composition. The data demonstrates that the composition of the district centre is

entirely inconsistent with national averages, highlighting the specialist focus on high end niche

retailing concentrated within this area.

11.6 The proportion of convenience goods operators (2.3%) is substantially below the national average

(9.9%), comprising just 4 retailers. These include newsagents, deli’s and small convenience stores.

Brompton Cross is located with Zone 3 of the Household Telephone Survey, and the data confirms

that local residents are predominantly choosing nearby foodstores including M&S and Sainsbury’s

Local in Fulham Road (West) District Centre, Waitrose and M&S in King’s Road (East) Major Centre,

and the Sainsbury’s Local on Sloane Avenue.

11.7 Unlike trends across most UK town centres, the proportion of comparison goods operators (51%) is

substantially above the national average of 30%, comprising 89 units in total. This category is

focused predominantly in a small number of niche – high end – sectors including art galleries,

clothing, interior design and decorations, furniture/household textiles, kitchen furniture, lighting,

jewellery and health and beauty. The large number of art galleries and interior decoration

businesses are scattered throughout the full extent of the district centre on Sloane Avenue, Walton

Street and Fulham Road; whilst the clothing operators are concentrated near to the Brompton

Cross ‘junction’ of roads, including Brompton Road, Walton Road and Draycott Avenue.

Table 11.1: Brompton Cross District Centre Composition of Uses (Units) - 2021



Comparison 89 50.9 29.6 21.3




9 5.1 9.9 -4.8

Vacant 33 18.9 11.7 7.2

Total 175 100 100 -

Table 11.2: Brompton Cross District Centre Composition of Uses (Floorspace sq m gross) - 2021


Convenience 800 3.2 9.2 -6.0

Comparison 13,470 54.0 29.6 24.4

Leisure Service 4,640 18.6 24.4 -5.8

Retail Service 1,590 6.4 15.0 -8.6


760 3.0 9.9 -6.9

Vacant 3,690 14.8 11.7 3.1

Total 24,950 100 100 -




11.8 The proportion of leisure services (13%) is below the national average (24%), comprising 23 units.

Consistent with the retail offer, these provide a good selection of high end venues and attractions

including bars, cafes, international cuisine restaurants, and three luxury health clubs. Retail

services are also below the national average, but do provide a good selection of dry cleaners,

beauty salons, hairdressers, travel agents, and car repairs. There are nine financial and business

services, including a solicitors, storage company, auctioneers and valuers, and a number of estate

agents. There are no high street banks represented.

11.9 Experian recorded 33 vacant units in March 2021, 18.9% of total units compared to a national

average of 11.7%. The up-to-date analysis demonstrated that there has been little change to this

figure in more recent months, although three of the larger vacant units have been re-occupied by

consistently high end brands. The large vacant unit at 91-99 Fulham Road, on the junction with

Lucan Place, has been occupied by ‘Antique Modern Mix’; the larger unit on Sloane

Avenue/Ixworth Place (No.74) has been occupied by DePadova Interior Design/Decoration; and the

adjoining unit – 74 Draycott Avenue – has been occupied by Fusalp high end clothing. Number 106

Draycott Avenue has recently been occupied by ‘Posh Pawn’, a pawn brokers.



percentage between 2008 and 2021. Consistent with most other centre across the borough – and

also with national trends across the UK – the number and proportion of comparison goods

operators has fallen since 2008. In other categories, convenience goods and financial

services/business have remained stable, leisure services have fallen marginally, but retail services

and vacant units have increased. The retail service category has predominantly seen a growth in

beauty salons and hairdressers.

Table 11.3: Brompton Cross District Centre Diversity of Uses by Number of Units 2008-2021



Comparison 96 58.2 89 50.9




Vacant 24 14.5 33 18.9

Total 165 100 175 100









Accessibility

11.11 In terms of public transport accessibility levels, the centre is located in an area rated as either “very

good” or “excellent” accessibility (a score of 5 or 6). Public transport accessibility to Fulham Road

(East) District Centre is good, although there are no bus stops or train/underground stations within

the core of the district centre. South Kensington is the nearest underground station and is located

approximately 250m to the west of the centre’s core frontage on Pelham Street; and Sloane Square

underground station is location c.650m to the east. The stations are on the Piccadilly, Circle and

District lines.




each respective town centre could be improved in the future. The first question asks respondents

which of the 11 major town centres they use most often, with Brompton Cross being the only

centre not cited by any respondent. This suggests that infrequent visitors to the centre travel from

further afield across the UK and beyond, and it is not serving a local shopping function. Local

residents across the borough are choosing alternative town centres as their centre of preference,

whilst Brompton Cross is an infrequent high end destination choice.




12. South Kensington

12.1 South Kensington is defined as a District Centre in the Local Plan and London Plan. It is located in

the centre of the borough and comprises 214 units, the main spine of which is located on Old

Brompton Road. A number of other streets also form part of the district centre including Bute

Street, Glendower Place, Harrington Road, Thurloe Street, Thurloe Place, Exhibition Road,

Cromwell Place, Pelham Street and South Kensington Arcade. The wider South Kensington area

forms the principal cultural focal point in the borough with thousands of people arriving every day

to visit the museums, and to work and study in the area.

12.2 The London Plan does not identify any future reclassification of South Kensington District Centre in

the town centre hierarchy, and records it as having ‘low’ commercial and ‘medium’ residential

growth potential. The London Plan concludes that the district centre should protect existing office

functions, generally within smaller units, but does not have the capacity, demand or viability to

accommodate new office development. The London Plan does not identify the centre as falling

within a Strategic Area for Regeneration, but does confirm a night-time economy classification of

NT1, i.e. having a strategic night-time function involving a broad mix of activity during the evening

and at night. South Kensington NT1 is recorded as being of international or national significance;

this is the strongest night-time economy of any town centre in the borough.




particular. Policy CV 1 adds that, ‘in the borough as a whole our reputation as a national and

international destination will have been further enhanced. The borough will have avoided

becoming little more than a residential suburb, with a flourishing and rich variety of retail and

cultural activities adding so much to the quality of life of the residents. Exhibition Road in South

Kensington – leading north from the district centre – will be providing a first class experience to

visitors to the national institutions, and have set a new standard nationally of streetscape design’.

12.4 In recognition of its outstanding universal value as a visitor destination, the Council and the London

Plan have designated the museums complex as a Strategic Cultural Area; i.e. comprising

internationally important cultural institutions. The boundary is illustrated on the Kensington &

Chelsea proposals map and a vision for the area forms part of the South Kensington Place section

of the Local Plan (Chapter 14) (discussed below). Chapter 19 of the Local Plan states that the

Council recognises that any development within the Strategic Cultural Area must be of the highest

quality and reflect the historic and architectural interest of the area. Policy CF11 of the Local Plan

seeks to protect this attribute:

Policy CF11: The South Kensington Strategic Cultural Area: The Council will protect and

enhance arts and cultural uses in the South Kensington Strategic Cultural Area.

12.5 Chapter 14 of the Local Plan sets the vision for the wider South Kensington area:

“South Kensington will maintain two distinct identities: a cultural destination

and a residential neighbourhood of distinction. The South Kensington Strategic

Cultural Area will remain a world-class public cultural quarter – the home of

science, arts, education and inspiration, while the South Kensington District

Centre will continue to provide valued local facilities and services. Reconciling




these two roles will be challenging but a balance will have been struck.” [Policy

CV14: Vision 2028]

12.6 Paragraph 14.2 of the Local Plan notes that South Kensington is home to three international

museums; the Victoria and Albert Museum, the Natural History Museum and the Science Museum,

education institutions such as Imperial College, and the Royal Colleges of Art and Music and

cultural institutions such as the Polish Club, Goethe Institute and Ismaili Centre. There is also a

diverse range of land uses in addition to the large scale of cultural and educational institutions,

including hotels, embassies and consulates.

12.7 Paragraph 14.2 adds that South Kensington District has many small shops and Bute Street Farmers’

Market that give it a village character much valued by local residents. However, over the last ten

years the area to the north of the station has become increasingly dominated by food and

beverage outlets predominantly catering for visitors. There is some concern that the diversity

needed to fulfil a district centre role for local people is being eroded. The Local Plan recognises

that there is a cluster of shops focusing on interior design, fashion and galleries in Brompton Road

and Brompton Cross that have synergies with the Victoria and Albert Museum.

12.8 An over-arching aim of the Local Plan (para.14.3) is to ensure that South Kensington District Centre

‘strikes the right balance’ between meeting the needs of both residents and visitors of the Cultural

Quarter. The policy priority is to ensure the day-to-day shopping needs of the local residents

continue to be met by the South Kensington District Centre, by protecting and increasing the retail

offer as part of the South Kensington Station improvements and in Thurloe Street, and preventing

the amalgamation of units into larger units where possible.

12.9 The Local Plan allocates one Strategic Site opportunity (CA8) on the edge of South Kensington

District Centre (Figure 8.1 below). Previous uses have been demolished and the site has remained

undeveloped and has been used as a temporary car park for a number of years. The Local Plan

confirms that the Council is keen to see this prime South Kensington site redeveloped to provide

much needed housing in the borough. Policy CA8 seeks to deliver a residential-led development

with a minimum of 50 residential dwellings and some ground floor commercial uses.

Figure 12.1: South Kensington





12.10 Based on the latest survey by Experian Goad (March 2021), South Kensington comprises 25,840 sq

m gross of retail, leisure and service floorspace across 214 units. Table 12.1 and 12.2 below set out

the diversity of uses in Notting Hill Gate District Centre compared to the national average in

respect of town centre composition. The data demonstrates that district centre has a particularly

strong representation of leisure services and to a lesser extent convenience goods operators, but a

below average representation of comparison goods and retail services. The data highlights that the

proportion of vacant units is below the national average.

Table 12.1: South Kensington District Centre Composition of Uses (Units) - 2021



Comparison 28 13.1 29.6 -16.5




22 10.3 9.9 0.4

Vacant 18 8.4 11.7 -3.3

Total 214 100 100 -

Table 12.2: South Kensington District Centre Composition of Uses (Floorspace sq m gross) - 2021


Convenience 2,470 9.6 9.2 0.4

Comparison 2,920 11.3 29.6 -18.3

Leisure Service 12,210 47.3 24.4 22.9

Retail Service 2,130 8.2 15.0 -6.8


3,430 13.3 9.9 3.4

Vacant 2,680 10.4 11.7 -1.3

Total 25,840 100 100 -


representing 28 units in total. The main foodstores include Little Waitrose to the west of Old

Brompton Road, and Tesco Express further east on Old Brompton Road. The telephone survey

analysis demonstrates that these foodstores perform very localised top-up shopping roles. There is

a strong range of ‘other’ convenience stores comprised predominantly of

bakers/confectioners/delicatessens; a number of which have café seating. There is one fishmonger

and one butcher, two health food shops, two off licences, and a newsagents. The deli’s and

confectioners and generally located towards to the east of the district centre, closer to the

underground station and visitor footfall.




12.12 South Kensington has a limited range and proportion of comparison goods, significantly below the

national average, albeit the mix of product is relatively good and the quality high end. These

include art galleries, picture framing, book shops, chemists, DIY products, interior decoration and

home entertainment, florists, cards and gifts, jewellers, bridal wear, musical instruments, Rymans

the Stationer and household textiles. There are also a number of car sale garages in and around

the district centre including HR Owen Lamborghini, Sports Classics and Peter Bradfield.

12.13 The proportion of leisure services is particularly strong (41.6%) and above the national average of

24.4%, comprising 89 businesses in total. Again, these are scattered throughout the full extent of

the district centre, and dominated by restaurants (39) offering a high quality choice of international

cuisine. Other uses include cafes (14), fast food take-aways (12), bars/wine bars (5) and public

houses (3). The fast food take-aways are generally good quality, including sandwich shops, pizzas

and fresh bakes, and Five Guys Burgers are represented.

12.14 Also in the leisure services category, Experian record seven hotels in the district centre, more than

any of the other major centres in the borough. These include Hilton, Kensington Hotel, Number

Sixteen, The Ampersand and The Pelham Hotel – all adding footfall and vibrancy to the district

centre. This reflects its role as a regional, national and international destination for visitors and

tourists as a gateway to South Kensington and the wider sub-regional cultural area. Other leisure

services include three health clubs offering different classes and a solarium.

12.15 The proportion of retail service operators (13.6%) is broadly in line with the national average of

15.0%, offering a good range of services for the local community and visitors. These include dry

cleaners, laundrettes, petrol filling station, hairdressers, beauty salons, natural therapy centres,

opticians, wedding services, photographic film developing, clothing alterations and a travel agent.

Financial and business services are also in line with the national average, largely comprising estate

agents, but also including Mail Boxes and Citibox business services and two printing and

photocopying businesses. Four major banks are represented including Lloyds, Natwest, Barclays

and RBS – all on or close to the junction of Old Brompton Road and Cromwell Place.

12.16 There are 18 vacant units in South Kensington district centre, comfortably below the national

average. A number do, however, occupy prominent locations, detracting from the street scene and

vitality of the area. Only small signs of reoccupation were noted, with a gin bar opening on Old




Brompton Road, and Cocotte – a brunch/lunch/dinner venue – opening on Harrington Road. A

number of vacant units have been unoccupied for lengthy periods of time, perhaps a consequence

of the Covid-19 Pandemic of the last 18 month or so. Vacancies should be monitored carefully

moving forwards.



percentage between 2008 and 2021. There has been a significant fall in the number and

proportion of comparison goods business, replaced predominantly by leisure service operators

which has seen an increase from 56 businesses to 89 in total. There has also been a strong

increase in convenience goods operators – predominantly bakers and confectioners – and a small

increase in retail services.

12.18 The balance is much in favour of leisure services, but the product range in other categories

continues to serve a local community seeking high end goods. The mix and balance should be

monitored moving forwards to ensure continued vitality and viability for the local community as

well as visitors to the area.

Table 12.3: South Kensington District Centre Diversity of Uses by Number of Units 2008-2021



Comparison 40 22.3 28 13.1



Financial & Bus. 21 11.7 22 10.3

Vacant 18 10.1 18 8.4

Total 178 100 214 100






Accessibility

12.19 The centre is located in an area rated as having ‘excellent’ accessibility (PTAL 6). The South

Kensington underground station is located in the east of district centre, with entrances on Thurloe

Street and Pelham Street, providing immediate connectivity with the shopping and leisure offer.

The station is on the Piccadilly, Circle and District lines.







Notting Hill District Centre could be improved in the future. A number of the questions are



i. The role of South Kensington as a district centre is evident when respondents were asked

about frequency of visit with just over 50% visiting at least once a week or more often. The

centre’s role as a destination of culture, cafes and restaurants is also reflected in those that

visit less frequently; i.e. 14% visit monthly, 10% visit every two months; and 9% visit twice a

year. The less frequent visits will also be driven by the hairdressers, beauty salons and small

number of high end comparison goods operators.

ii. The limited range of comparison goods retailers and consequent opportunity for ‘linked trips’

with ‘shopping’ is reflected in the shorter dwell times compared to some other larger centres

in the borough. Visitors to the centre will pop just to the café, hairdressers, or other service

without also ‘browsing’ in the shops. Almost 70% only stay for up to an hour, whilst 12.5% stay

for 1-3 hours, and 11% stay for 3-4 hours.

iii. The highest response when asked about the main purpose of their trip was for a day out/walk

about (40%), followed by non-food shopping (19%), food shopping (10%), to visit the museums

and art galleries (8%), other leisure activities (5%), and to meet friends (3%).

iv. When asked ‘what else’ they would be doing in South Kensington the highest response was to

visit cafes/restaurants (30%), followed by non-food shopping (28%), food shopping (18%), and

to meet friends and family(16%). There was little mention of retail services such as

hairdressers or beauty salons. The majority of visits were primarily there for a day out/walk

about combined with coffee or lunch in one of the cafes or restaurants.

v. When asked what they liked about the centre there were a number of responses including

being ‘close to home’ (17%), having an attractive environment (15%), that it is vibrant and

diverse (13%), good range of bakers/butchers/greengrocers (13%), close to friends/relatives

(13%), good cafes/restaurants (12%) and a good range of other retail services such as

hairdressers (8%).

vi. Respondents were then asked what the disliked about the centre, with the majority of

responses relating to noise, congestion, insufficient parking, and the need for better and more

affordable shops.




13. Notting Hill Gate

13.1 Notting Hill Gate is defined as a District Centre in the Local Plan and London Plan. It is located in

the northern half of the borough – north of Kensington High Street and south of Portobello Road.

The centre is the fifth largest in the borough, comprising 251 units located predominantly on

Notting Hill Gate and Kensington Church Street, and also acts as the gateway to Portobello Road

market to the north. The district centre has excellent levels of accessibility being located on the

central, district and circle line, with underground access points on either side of Notting Hill Gate

(A402). The Notting Hill Gate SPD (2015) notes that over 17 million people arrive or leave at

Notting Hill Gate station each year, compared to 12 million at Kensington High Street.

13.2 The Local Plan notes that the town centre was comprehensively redeveloped in the 1950’s and is of

a completely different scale and character to the surrounding residential areas; with many of the

buildings now dated and deteriorating. The centre suffers from traffic dominance and congestion

at the expense of a pleasant pedestrian environment. Paragraph 11.2 of the Local Plan highlights

that the centre has a longstanding reputation for arts and culture, offering a number of important

venues including the Gate Theatre, the Gate Cinema and the Coronet Cinema and Theatre. The

Local Plan confirms that the centre is surrounded by Conservation Areas and is an important

district centre serving local retail needs.

13.3 Policy CV 11 of the Local Plan sets out the vision for Notting Hill in 2028:

Notting Hill Gate will have strengthened its distinct identity as one of the Borough’s main district

centres benefitting from a high level of public transport accessibility. It will continue to be a major

office location and build upon its long-standing reputation for arts, culture and the evening

economy as well as serving the needs of local people. As one of the arrival points for Portobello

Road the public realm (e.g. paving, crossings, wayfinding) will have been improved to accommodate

the high volumes of footfall in Pembridge Road / Kensington Park Road and to make Notting Hill

Gate more pedestrian friendly. Opportunities set out in the Notting Hill Gate Supplementary

Planning Document will have been taken to refurbish or redevelop outdated 50s buildings.

13.4 The SPD highlights that many people pass through the centre going to and from work and visiting

Portobello Road, making it more of a thoroughfare than a vibrant place to stop and spend time.

The busy roads and high traffic levels are seen as a deterrent to shopping and lingering, for

residents and visitors alike. This is exacerbated by the dominance and condition of the 1950’s

buildings. The SPD notes that the nature of the shops reflects Notting Hill Gate’s function as a

transport hub and a centre serving the day-to-day needs of local people. The document adds that

Notting Hill is constrained by other retail centres nearby including Portobello Road, Westbourne

Grove, Kensington High Street, Westfield Shopping Centre and Holland Park Avenue.

13.5 As well as improvements to the public realm, the pedestrian and cycle environment and pedestrian

circulation, the following seven key development sites have been identified in the SPD (See Figure

13.1 below):

i. Newcombe House Sites

ii. Astley House

iii. The Gate Cinema Block

iv. West Block

v. Ivy Lodge to United House

vi. 66-74 Notting Hill Gate (Book

Warehouse)

vii. David Game House and Hobson

House




Figure 13.1: Notting Hill Gate SPD Development Opportunity Sites

13.6 The seven development sites comprise large sections of frontage on Notting Hill Gate, the main

high road through the district centre, highlighting substantial opportunity for redevelopment and

refurbishment to enhance the visual appearance and pedestrian experience when visiting. Table

13.1 below provides an update of each of the seven sites.

Figure 13.1: Notting Hill Gate SPD Development Opportunity Sites

Site Planning Reference Comment

Newcombe House Sites Planning permission granted 25 June

2020, subject to S.106 / PP/17/05782

Not yet implemented

Astley House - -

The Gate Cinema Block Planning permission and listed building

consent refused 13th October 2017

West Block - -

Ivy Lodge to United House Planning permission granted 23rd

December 2016 subject to S.106.

Implemented.

PP/16/05299

Reclad and refurbishment of

United House complete, with

addition of two floors. No

change to Ivy Lodge and

Campden Hill Towers.

66-74 Notting Hill Gate

(Book Warehouse)

Planning permission granted 15th

January 2016. Implemented

PP/15/05730

Scheme currently under

construction.

David Game House and

Hobson House

Planning permission granted 6th

January 2017 subject to S.106.

Implemented.

PP/16/05236 and PP/17/07174

Refurbishment of block

completed.




13.7 The London Plan identifies a greater opportunity for development in Notting Hill Gate than other

district centres in the borough. Whilst it does not identify any future reclassification of Notting Hill

Gate in the town centre hierarchy, it records it as having medium – rather than low - commercial

and residential growth potential. Also, whilst all other district centres in the borough are

encouraged to protect existing office support, the London Plan identifies Notting Hill Gate as

having mixed-use office potential; i.e. having the capacity, demand and viability to accommodate

new office development, generally as part of mixed-use developments including residential use.

This is reflected in the number of development sites identified and allocated for

refurbishment/redevelopment.


13.8 Based on the latest survey by Experian Goad (March 2021), Notting Hill Gate comprises 28,900 sq

m gross of retail, leisure and service floorspace across 251 units. Table 13.2 and 13.3 below set out

the diversity of uses in Notting Hill Gate District Centre compared to the national average in

respect of town centre composition. The data demonstrates that the composition of the district

centre is broadly in line with national average, aside from a lower level of retail services. The data

suggests that the number of vacant units is high compared national average levels; this is discussed

further below. Overall, the retail, leisure and service offer is generally more mainstream and

functional when compared to many of the high end and luxury branded major centres elsewhere in

the borough.

Table 13.2: Notting Hill Gate District Centre Composition of Uses (Units) - 2021



Comparison 79 31.5 29.6 1.9




25 10.0 9.9 0.1

Vacant 43 17.1 11.7 5.4

Total 251 100 100 -

Table 13.3: Notting Hill Gate District Centre Composition of Uses (Floorspace sq m gross) - 2021


Convenience 2,590 9.0 9.2 -0.2

Comparison 7,400 25.6 29.6 -4.0

Leisure Service 8,930 30.9 24.4 6.5

Retail Service 1,830 6.3 15.0 -8.7


3,170 11.0 9.9 1.1

Vacant 4,980 17.2 11.7 5.5

Total 28,900 100 100 -




13.9 The proportion of convenience goods operators (8%) is marginally below the national average of

9.2%, representing 20 units in total. The district centre has three small national multiple retailers

including Tesco Metro, Little Waitrose and M&S Simply Food – all located to the west of Pembridge

Road in close proximity to each other. There is no ‘anchor’ foodstore to the east of the district

centre, nor on Pembridge Road or Kensington Church Street. The Tesco Metro is open for trading

the longest, through to mid-night on most days, whilst Little Waitrose and M&S trade to 10pm and

9pm respectively. Smaller and independent units are occupied by bakers, confectioners,

convenience stores and newsagents, tobacconists, and off licences.

13.10 Notting Hill Gate has a good proportion of comparison goods businesses, being marginally above

the national average (+1.9%). A closer and more in-depth analysis highlights a number of

interesting niche sectors, including 25 antique shops and art galleries, predominantly on

Kensington Church Street. Other sectors with a number of businesses include chemists, charity

shops, gifts, jewellers, ladies and menswear, second hand goods on Pembridge Road, and florists.

National multiple retailers include Rymans Stationers, Boots the Chemist, and Waterstones

bookshop, and there are a selection of mobile phone shops operating throughout the district

centre.

13.11 Notting Hill Gate has a good representation of leisure services, marginally above the national

average and comprising 64 units in total. The largest leisure category is restaurants, offering a

wide selection of international cuisine across 26 units; followed by cafes (14), and public houses

(8). There is a large selection of independent operators, and multiple retailers including Starbucks,

Café Nero and Pret a Manger. The district centre offers two ice cream parlours, one juice bar and

three bar/restaurants. There are two betting shops, and both McDonalds and KFC are represented,

but the number of take-away units is relatively low. The district centre also has one solarium and

two health clubs/gyms.

13.12 The Coronet Theatre is a Grade II listed building on the

junction of Notting Hill Gate and Hillgate Street. The venue

presents a programme of theatre, dance, music, poetry and

visual arts in a 195-seat main auditorium and 90-seat studio

space. The venue adds a vibrant and dynamic cultural

attraction to Notting Hill, and has just undergone a major

refurbishment of the roof and upper rooms.

13.13 The Gate Cinema is located close to the Coronet Theatre,

fronting Notting Hill Gate. The listed building first opened its

doors as a cinema in 1911, and during the Second World

War, the ornate exterior was severely damaged and

subsequently replaced with a plain façade and a flat

roof. The single-screen cinema became a Picturehouse in

2003, and in 2004 the building underwent renovation,

restoring the ornate Edwardian plasterwork in the

auditorium alongside general interior improvements.

13.14 The number and proportion of retail services in the district centre (6.3%) is below the national

average (15%), but the range and mix of offer is good. The centre has a selection of hairdressers,

beauty salons and natural therapy businesses, as well as a Post Office, photographic printing shop




(Snappy Snaps), three dry cleaners and an opticians. The proportion of financial and business

services is in line with the national average offering 25 businesses, 13 of which are estate agents.

There are also four major banks represented including Natwest, Lloyds, HSBC and Barclays; two

bureau de change; and a number of businesses including photocopying/printing, tool and machine

hire, an accountant, and Mail Box business services.

13.15 Other uses driving footfall in the district centre include dentists on Pembridge Road and Notting

Hill Gate, a veterinary surgery on Kensington Church Street, the Embassy of the Czech Republic at

the eastern end of Notting Hill Gate, the Bethesda Baptist Church on Kensington Place just off

Kensington Church Street, and a number of large office buildings including United House, Ivy Lodge,

Campden Towers, and Newcombe House, for example. As set out earlier, most of these office sites

are allocated for redevelopment but will in many cases re-provide office space through new

planning permissions.

13.16 The Saturday Farmers Market is a popular attraction and addition to the diversity of the district

centre – particularly for local residents. Located on the car park behind Waterstones on

Kensington Church Street, the market opens at 9am and offers a broad range of good quality food

products from local farms, highlighting ‘in season’ fruit and vegetables, and also flowers, herbs,

milk and cream, and honey for example.

13.17 The data suggests that Notting Hill Gate has a high vacancy rate (17.1%) compared to the national

average (11.7%), comprising 43 units in total. The up-to-date on-site survey and analysis of the

centre demonstrates, however, that many of these have now been reoccupied, are under

alteration, or form part of current redevelopment sites and site allocations coming forwards for

redevelopment. On Kensington Church Street, previous vacant units have been re-occupied by an

artisan art shop, ‘Caviar Artisan Fine Foods’, and ‘The Fish Shop’ has opened in the large former

public house on the corner with Kensington Place. The vacancy rate on Kensington Church Street is

very low.

13.18 At the eastern and western end of Notting Hill Gate a small number of vacant units remain

unoccupied, but the main concentration is within Site No.6 (SPD) – the Book Warehouse site –

containing four vacant units. These are currently being redeveloped and will be re-let as new

modern spaces within the core of the district centre. The largest two units that remains vacant on

Notting Hill Gate include the vacant bank at the junction with Pembridge Gardens, adjacent to

Foxtons Estate Agents, and the vacant former restaurant immediately adjoining the Book

Warehouse site redevelopment.

13.19 Pembridge Road is performing well with no vacant units on the southern section closest to Notting

Hill Gate. Two former vacant units have recently been re-occupied by a café/restaurant and a

second hand clothing / jewellers. Up-to-date analysis demonstrates that vacancy rates on the main

shopping frontages – Notting Hill Gate, Kensington Church Street, Pembridge Road – are low, but

that there remain a few vacant units on the peripheral side streets that experience lower footfall;

these include Campden Hill Road, Hillgate Street, Kensington Mal and Palace Gardens Terrace.



percentage between 2008 and 2021. Whilst the proportion of convenience goods and retail

services has remained relatively static, the fall in the number and proportion of comparison goods




and financial and business sectors has been significant. This is consistent with wider national town

centre trends over recent years.

13.21 The drop in those categories has been compensated to some extent by an increase in leisure

services, but in many cases the loss of businesses has led to vacant unoccupied premises, at one

point identifying 43 vacant units. The most up-to-date analysis above has demonstrated that

Notting Hill District Centre has bounced back to some extent, with vacancies having now fallen

again with the introduction of new and good quality businesses. Nevertheless, there remain

around 33 vacant units across the centre, compared to 19 in 2008.

Table 13.4: Notting Hill Gate District Centre Diversity of Uses by Number of Units 2008-2021



Comparison 105 40.2 79 31.5



Financial & Bus. 35 13.4 25 10.0

Vacant 19 7.3 43 17.1

Total 261 100 251 100






Accessibility


“excellent” accessibility (a score of 6). Notting Hill Gate underground station is located centrally

within the centre and provides circle, district and central line services.




Notting Hill District Centre could be improved in the future. A number of the questions are



i. When asked about frequency of visit, it is evident that Notting Hill Gate performs a local

shopping role for day-to-day requirements, alongside a more specialist role driving more

occasional and less frequent visits. This is likely a consequence of the interesting niche

sectors identified and discussed earlier in this section. High frequency of visit includes 43.8%




of respondents who visit between once a week and every-day, whilst less frequent visits

include ‘every two week’ (24.2%), ‘monthly’ (12.5%), ‘once every two months’ (12.8%), and

3-4 times a year (3.9%).

ii. The highest responses for main purpose of visit included food shopping (42%), non-food

shopping (16%), day out / window shopping (16%), cafes/restaurants (15%), to visit the

market (4%), and other leisure activities (3%).

iii. When asked ‘what else’ they would be doing in Notting Hill District Centre, the highest

responses included non-food shopping (38%), cafes/restaurants (23%), food shopping (11%),

to meet friends (7%), bars/pubs (6%), the market (5%), the cinema (4%), to access public

transport (3%), and to visit a medical service/dentist (3%).

iv. When asked what they liked about the centre, 29% stated that it was ‘close to home’. Other

responses included the environment/nice place (19%), that it was vibrant/diverse (13%), the

good range of non-food shops (10%), the good range of supermarkets (9%), that the centre

is compact (8%), and the good leisure facilities – including the cinema (4%).

v. Dislikes focused on noise and parking, with 18% stating that it was too busy and noisy, and

13% adding that there is insufficient parking available. Others disliked the poorly maintained

and dirty streets (8%) and empty shops (2.4%), whilst others stated there was a need for

better / affordable shops (2.4%).




14. Portobello Road

14.1 Portobello Road is defined as a ‘Special’ District Centre in the Local Plan to reflect it’s unique

function in having both a substantial local and international draw (paragraph 19.3.11). It is the

most northerly of the larger centres in the borough, and is linear in layout running 1.5km between

Chepstow Villas in the south to Oxford Gardens – north of the A40 – in the north. Portobello Road

lies just north of Notting Hill Gate and west of Westbourne Grove, and is the third largest centre in

the borough with 304 units.

14.2 The Local Plan highlights that increasing property prices have altered the local demographics over

the last 20 years, instigating a change to the type and mix of shop, the loss of independents and the

consequent erosion of the unique character of the centre. Many of the new businesses are coffee

shops and souvenir sellers, albeit the majority of space continues to be operated by independent

and specialist retailers – significantly more than the other major centres in the borough.

14.3 Portobello Road is one of the most visited attractions in London, and the market celebrated its

150th Anniversary in 2015. On Fridays, the second hand market is open and on Saturday the

famous antiques market is held towards the Southern end of Portobello Road, near Notting Hill

Gate. In addition to the antique stalls, there are a whole host of arcades, galleries, shops and cafes

open to cater for the large number of tourists and visitors to the area.

14.4 The Local Plan states that the market is, however, under pressure with some arcade space being

converted to larger retail space, the proliferation of fast food stalls at the expense of traditional

fruit and vegetable stalls, overcrowding on Fridays and at the weekends causing a nuisance for

local residents, and balancing the needs of visitors whilst ensuring a successful market trading

environment and product range for the benefit of the local community.

14.5 The Local Plan sets out the following vision for Portobello Road in 2028, aiming to protect and

enhance the unique centre (Policy CV10):

“Portobello Road Market will continue to be a vibrant and distinctive street market serving

the day-today needs of local residents and attracting visitors from across the world. The




market will remain the UK’s principal wholesale antiques trade centre for the storage and

sale of antiques, an inspiration for designers and a seed-bed for new entrepreneurs. The

centre will maintain a rich variety of small independent shops offering ‘something

different’. The link between Portobello and Golborne markets will have been strengthened

and links between Ladbroke Grove and Portobello Market will also be improved. Kensal

Portobello Elizabeth Line station will provide a valuable new transport link to the area.”

14.6 The wider vision for the borough (Policy CV 1) aims to enhance the reputation of national and

international destinations – Knightsbridge, Portobello Road, South Kensington, the King’s Road,

Kensington High Street, – by supporting and encouraging retail and cultural activities in particular.

The vision adds that the unique character of Golborne and Portobello Road will have flourished,

including the antiques and street market, adding to the vitality of the area.

14.7 Just north of Golborne, the Wornington Green Estate (Site Allocation CA2) is being redeveloped to

“meet modern housing standards and providing new private housing alongside replacement of the

existing social rented housing”. This development will restore the northern connection between

Portobello Road and Ladbroke Grove (Figure 10.1, below).

Figure 10.1: Portobello Road, Golborne Road and Site Allocation CA2




14.8 The London Plan does not identify any future reclassification of Portobello Road Special District

Centre in the town centre hierarchy, and records it as having ‘medium’ commercial growth

potential with the opportunity to provide some incremental housing intensification. The London

Plan concludes that the district centre should protect existing office functions, generally within

smaller units, but does not have the capacity, demand or viability to accommodate new office

development.

14.9 The London Plan identifies Portobello Road as falling within a wider Strategic Area for

Regeneration, i.e. where the impacts of inequality and causes of deprivation are particularly

concentrated. Policy SD10 states that Boroughs should identify Strategic Areas for Regeneration in

their Local Plans and develop policies that are based on a thorough understanding of the

demographics of communities and their needs.


14.10 Table 14.1 and 14.2 below set out the diversity of uses in Portobello Road compared to the

national average in respect of town centre composition. In contrast to national trends and unlike

most other centres in the borough, the data demonstrates that the district centre has a particularly

strong representation of convenience and comparison goods retailers, and a below average

representation of all other categories. The analysis set out below demonstrates that Portobello

Road has retained it’s ‘special’ district centre allocation, meeting local needs whilst also performing

as a destination attraction from across London and beyond.

Table 14.1: Portobello Road Special District Centre Composition of Uses (Units) - 2021



Comparison 138 45.4 29.6 15.8




10 3.3 9.9 -6.6

Vacant 34 11.2 11.7 -0.5

Total 304 100 100 -

Table 14.2: Portobello Road Special District Centre Composition of Uses (Floorspace sq m gross) - 2021


Convenience 4,690 15.8 9.2 6.6

Comparison 12,360 41.6 29.6 12.0

Leisure Service 6,440 21.7 24.4 -2.7

Retail Service 1,760 5.9 15.0 -9.1


1,360 4.6 9.9 -5.3

Vacant 3,070 10.3 11.7 -1.4

Total 29,680 100 100 -





comprising 39 retailers. The main foodstore operators include Sainsbury’s Local and Tesco Metro,

located on the central/north part of Portobello Road, and both open from 7am-11pm. There is also

a strong range of good quality independent convenience goods businesses, reflecting the ‘foodie’

role of Portobello Road linked to the market. Operators include a number of bakers, butchers,

fishmongers, deli’s, confectioners, tobacconists, off licences, tea and coffee merchants, health food

shops and newsagents. The mix of convenience retailing is strong, vibrant and diverse.

14.12 Similarly, the proportion of comparison goods operators (45.4%) is substantially above the national

average (29.6%), contrary to wider national trends. The mix and composition remains very much

consistent with the allocated role of Portobello Road as a Special District Centre, with a product

range serving the local community and also those across London and tourists beyond. There are

138 comparison goods businesses in total.

14.13 There are a large number of antique shops and art galleries, predominantly concentrated in the

southern part of the district centre. Businesses also include a large number of book shops,

jewellers, flooring, gift shops, interior decoration, furniture, hardware and household goods, and

clothing. Clothing retailers offer a mix of children’s, ladies and menswear largely offering vintage

and boutique styles, rather than the luxury high end brands seen in other centres such as

Westbourne Grove. National multiple operators are limited for a centre of this size, but includes

Kurt Geiger Shoes, Holland and Barrett health food, Whittard of Chelsea and Poundland. The focus

of the special district centre remains the independent businesses.

14.14 The proportion of leisure services is below the national average, but the 57 businesses do offer a

good mix and quality of operator. These include international cuisine restaurants, cafes, coffee

shops, juice bars, bar/restaurants, three public houses and an ice cream parlour. Starbucks and

Five Guy fast food are represented, but almost all businesses are independents. There is only one

health club/gym; the Westway Portobello Fitness Club in the north of the centre offers a gym,

exercise classes, squash courts and sauna/steam rooms.

14.15 The Electric Cinema is a longstanding institution on Portobello Road, located in the centre of the

district centre. It first opened in 1911, and today has been refurbished to a high standard offering

mainstream and art house films, bar and restaurant. The cinema is a well-known and important

destination attractor in the district centre. The proportion of retail services is also below the

national average, but like leisure services, the range of businesses is good, supporting the needs of

the local community. These include dry cleaners, beauty salons, hairdressers, tattooists, opticians,

natural therapy, and photographic film developing. There are only 10 financial business services,

the overall proportion (3.3%) being significantly below the national average (9.9%). These include a

builders merchants, locksmith, bureau de change, and a selection of estate agents.

14.16 A number of other town centre uses add the vibrancy, diversity and footfall in Portobello Road

Special District Centre. The Colville Health Centre is located on Kensington Park Road, The

Salvation Army is located on Portobello Road opposite Sainsbury’s Local, and the Notting Hill

Community Church is on Kensington Park Road. The proportion of vacant units is marginally below

the national average, with 34 units scattered throughout the district centre. A number of these are

on the peripheral side streets including Westbourne Grove and Kensington Park Road, and around

half are distributed along Portobello Road.






percentage between 2008 and 2021. The trendline data highlights a substantial fall in the number

and proportion of comparison goods operators, and whilst the proportion of leisure services and

financial/business has remained unchanged, the level of convenience goods and retail services has

risen. The largest rise is in the representation of convenience goods operators, and the analysis

above identifies a number of quality new independents across the centre. The proportion of

vacant units has more than doubled since 2008.

Table 10.3: Portobello Road Special District Centre Diversity of Uses by Number of Units 2008-2021



Comparison 181 62.2 138 45.4




Vacant 15 5.2 34 11.2

Total 291 100 304 100






Accessibility


“good” accessibility (a score of 4), which along with Westbourne Grove and Fulham Road West is

the lowest score achieved by the main centres in the Borough. However, the centre still has

relatively good accessibility by public transport. Ladbroke Grove underground station, on the

Hammersmith and City Line, and Notting Hill Gate underground station, on the Central, Circle and

District Lines, are both short walks from Portobello Road.




Portobello Road Special District Centre could be improved in the future. A number of the questions

are multiple response, enabling the respondent to state more than one answer, and as a result

some of the percentage figures are greater than 100%. The key findings are summarised below:




i. The national and international role of the market, food orientated retailing and Portobello

Road’s identity as a special district centre is reflected in frequency of visit, with 25% visiting

infrequently between every 2 months and once a year. Portobello Road is clearly continuing

to perform a role wider than a local day-to-day shopping destination. Others visit monthly

(15%), every two weeks (13%), and at least once a week or more frequently (44%) by those

living locally and using the centre most days for the shopping and service requirements.

ii. Dwell time is relatively low compared to other centres in the borough, with 51% staying up

to 1 hour, whilst a further 26% stay for between 1 and 2 hours. Only 13% stay in the district

centre for 2-3 hours, and 7% stay for longer.

iii. The highest response when asked about the main purpose of their trip was ‘a day

out/browsing’ (30%), followed by food shopping (29%), non-food shopping (13%), to shop at

the market (15%), and to visit cafes/restaurants (4%).

iv. When asked ‘what else’ they would be doing in Portobello Road the responses included non-

food shopping (26%), visiting cafes/restaurants (23%), food shopping (22%), day

out/browsing (7%), the markets (5%), and other leisure activities (4%).

v. When asked what they liked about the centre, a range of views were recorded including the

good market (25%), nice atmosphere/friendly (20%), good range of independent shops

(18%), vibrant/diverse (15%), close to home (15%), good range of non-food shops (12%),

attractive environment (8%), familiar/they know where everything is (5%), good range of

bakers/butchers/greengrocers (5%), and good cafes/restaurants (5%).

vi. Respondents were then asked what they disliked about the centre with 67% saying ‘nothing’

– a strong vitality indicator for the district centre. A small selection stated that it was too

busy/noisy (15%), traffic congestion/insufficient parking (6%), and the poor market (4%).




15. Westbourne Grove

15.1 Westbourne Grove is defined as a Special District Centre in the Local Plan and London Plan. It sits

in the north of the borough, neighbouring Portobello Road and extending into the City of

Westminster; Westbourne Grove spans both authority areas. Our analysis focuses on the area of

the district centre falling within the borough of Kensington & Chelsea, running from Colville

Road/Denbigh Road in the west to Ledbury Road and Westbourne Grove Mews in the east (Figure

11.1 below). It is the eighth largest centre in the borough comprising 164 units, and is located just

over 100 metres east of Portobello Road District Centre accessed directly via Westbourne Grove.

Figure 11.1: Westbourne Grove Special District Centre & Borough Boundary

15.2 The Local Plan confirms that Portobello Road and Westbourne Grove have been designated by the

Council as separate Special District Centres to reflect their unique function in having both a

substantial local and international draw. When setting the vision for the wider Portobello Road

area, Chapter 10 of the Local Plan recognises that the centre has changed from antiques and local

food shops to a cluster of up-market fashion shops and art galleries. Policy confirms that support

will be given to specialist and individual retail functions of Portobello Road, Ladbroke Grove,

Westbourne Grove and All Saints Road.

15.3 Westbourne Grove is not recognised as a District Centre in the London Plan, and is not therefore

listed in the London wide town centre hierarchy. The Local Plan does not allocate any strategic

sites in or adjacent to Westbourne Grove Special District Centre.


15.4 Based on the latest survey by Experian Goad (March 2021), Westbourne Grove Special District

Centre comprises 12,290 sq m gross of retail, leisure and service floorspace across 104 units. This

includes a small stretch of 9 units on the eastern side of Ledbury Road; these units are out of the

Borough boundary, K&C / City of Westminster




borough in the City of Westminster, but are included in the health check as they remain an integral

part of the centre.

15.5 Table 15.1 and 15.2 below set out the diversity of uses in Westbourne Grove compared to the

national average in respect of town centre composition. In contrast to national trends and unlike

most other centres in the borough, the data demonstrates that the district centre has a particularly

strong representation of comparison goods retailers, and a below average representation of all

other categories. The analysis set out below demonstrates that Westbourne Grove has retained

it’s ‘special’ district centre allocation, performing as a destination attraction from across London

and beyond.

Table 15.1: Westbourne Grove Special District Centre Composition of Uses (Units) - 2021


Convenience 4 3.8 9.2 -5.4%

Comparison 66 63.5 29.6 33.9%

Leisure Service 13 12.5 24.4 -11.9%

Retail Service 7 6.7 15.0 -8.3%


5 4.8 9.9 -5.1

Vacant 9 8.7 11.7 -3.0%

Total 104 100 100 -

Table 15.2: Westbourne Grove Special District Centre Composition of Uses (Floorspace sq m gross) - 2021


Convenience 750 6.1 9.2 -3.1%%

Comparison 6,330 51.5 29.6 21.9%

Leisure Service 2,220 18.1 24.4 -6.3%

Retail Service 770 6.3 15.0 -8.7%


600 4.9 9.9 -5.0%

Vacant 1,620 13.2 11.7 1.5%

Total 12,290 100 100 -

15.6 The proportion of convenience goods operators (3.8%) is significantly below the national average

of 9.2%, comprising just 4 businesses. These include organic, high end deli’s, confectioners and

food shops. A greater range of smaller foodstores are available further afield, including Waitrose

Notting Hill and Waitrose Bayswater. The household telephone survey results show that residents

in Zone 1 – the zone in which Westbourne Grove is located – are using Portobello Road local shops

and the large Sainsbury’s superstore at Ladbroke Grove for their food shopping.

15.7 The proportion of comparison goods operators is substantially above the national average,

demonstrating why the centre has been allocated as a ‘special’ district centre. Comprising 66 units,

the comparison goods category offers a range of high quality international fashion retailers and




international designer boutiques complemented by several jewellers and antique shops. Men’s,

ladies and children’s clothing shops are represented along Westbourne Grove and Ledbury Road,

creating a concentration of 45 operators in total. These include the more well known high end

multiple retailers Jigsaw, Joseph and Max Mara, but predominantly comprise high end and luxury

independent businesses.

15.8 As a consequence of the particularly high number of comparison goods operators, the proportion

of retail and leisure services, and financial and business services are all below the national average.

The thirteen leisure services include four coffee shops, juice bar, public house, restaurants and two

health clubs. Retail services (7) include high end luxury beauty salons, hairdressers and an

opticians; and business services is comprised entirely of estate agents. The district centre does not

have a bank, post office or dry cleaners, for example, but local day-to-day facilities are located

close-by at Portobello Road and Notting Hill Gate.

15.9 The vacancy rate has remained relatively unchanged since the Experian Goad survey in March

2021, with some operators closing down and other opening new operations. Those new

businesses have retained the character of the area, offering high end luxury brands and products to

reinforce the special nature of this district centre.



percentage between 2008 and 2021. The trendline data highlights that whilst the number and

proportion of comparison goods remains strong, it has declined since 2008 now making up just

63.5% of total units compared to 83% in 2008. The decline of comparison goods operators has

been replaced by a mix of convenience, leisure service, retail service and financial and business

operators. The vacancy rate has also increased, but remains below the national average.




Table 15.3: Westbourne Grove Special District Centre Diversity of Uses by Number of Units 2008-2021



Comparison 78 83.0 66 63.5




Vacant 3 3.2 9 8.7

Total 94 100 104 100






Accessibility


“good” accessibility (a score of 4), which along with Portobello Road and Fulham Road West is the

lowest score achieved by the main centres in the Borough. However, Westbourne Grove Special

District Centre still has relatively good accessibility by public transport. Ladbroke Grove

underground station, on the Hammersmith and City Line, and Notting Hill Gate underground

station, on the Central, Circle and District Lines, are both short walks from Westbourne Grove and

provide London underground links to destinations across London.




Westbourne Grove Special District Centre could be improved in the future. A number of the

questions are multiple response, enabling the respondent to state more than one answer, and as a

result some of the percentage figures are greater than 100%. The key findings are summarised

below:

i. When asked about frequency of visit, 61.7% stated that they visited the centre between

once a week (33.5%) and every day (7.6%). Others visited less frequently, every two weeks

(12.8%), monthly (12.2%), once every two months (5.2%), and 3-4 times a year (6.1%).

Whilst a lot of people are regular visitors, the special district centre is clearly driving more

occasional trips driven by the high quality concentration of niche luxury retailers.

ii. The majority of visitors spend up to an hour in the district centre (68.5% of respondents),

whilst a further 28.3% spend 1-3 hours. This broadly reflects frequency of visit, with those




visiting regularly likely to spend less time on each visit, and those visiting less regularly likely

to stay longer browsing and having lunch/coffee, for example.

iii. The highest response when asked about the main purpose of their trip was non-food

shopping (65.5%), followed by having day out/browsing (17%, and visiting cafes/restaurants

(8.6%).

iv. When asked ‘what else’ they would be doing in Westbourne Grove special district centre,

the highest response was to visit the cafes/restaurants (42%), followed by non-food

shopping (25%), having a day out/browsing (10%), meeting family and friends (11%), and

visiting the gym/health centre (6%).

v. When asked what they liked about the centre, 36.4% stated that it was ‘close to home’.

Other responses included the good range of independent shops (20.6%), the good range of

non-food shops (15%), the cafes/restaurants (15%), the attractive and pleasant environment

(13%), a nice village feel (5%), the vibrancy and diversity (11%), and the good quality

convenience stores (10%).

vi. Respondents were then asked what they disliked about the centre with 66% stating

‘nothing’. There were few other responses, with one or two people commenting on the

environment and traffic congestion/noise. Overall, shoppers and visitors are very satisfied

with the town centre mix and environment.




16. Quantitative Need Forecasts

16.1 In this section we set out our assessment of the need for additional convenience and comparison

goods retail floorspace across RBKC. We set out the performance of existing floorspace as the

basis for forecasting the need for additional retail floorspace to the period 2040, incorporating

interim years of 2026, 2031, 2036, 2041 and 2043. The quantitative tabulations accompanying this

assessment are set out in Appendix 1 (convenience) and 2 (comparison).

16.2 In identifying need, it is important to note that forecasts become increasingly open to margins of

error over time, and accordingly will need to be refreshed over the course of the Council’s Local

Plan. This is particularly the case given the current Covid-19 health pandemic and unknown longer

term consequences for the economy.

16.3 We have used a conventional and widely accepted step by step methodology, drawing upon the

results of the household telephone survey of existing shopping patterns (2021) to model the

existing flows of available expenditure to the network of centres and edge/out-of-centre retail

provision. To develop the baseline, we have:

▪ Calculated the total amount of convenience and comparison goods expenditure which is

available within the postcode areas comprising the RBKC study area;

▪ Allocated the available projected expenditure to the convenience and comparison goods

shopping destinations, on the basis of the household telephone survey of shopping patterns so

as to provide estimates on current sales and forecasts of future sales;

▪ Compared the total expenditure attracted to each shopping destination with current retail

floorspace to assess sales densities/performance in each shopping destination.

16.4 Building on the baseline position, we have explored the need for further convenience and

comparison retail floorspace within each local authority, having regard to the identified

performance of existing floorspace and growth in residual expenditure.

Data Inputs

Survey Area and Household Telephone Survey

16.5 As introduced earlier in this study, a new household telephone interview survey was undertaken

covering 1,000 households across 10 survey zones (Figure 16.1 below). Urban Shape designed the

survey questionnaire in consultation with the Council and NEMS Market Research, who undertook

the interviewing and data processing in February 2021. The survey area is shown below.

16.6 The survey results (2021) identify shopping habits of households for both convenience and

comparison goods. Where necessary, survey results have been rebased to remove some responses

(such as ‘don’t shop for particular goods’ and ‘internet shopping’) to ensure consistency with

categories excluded in the expenditure projections.

16.7 For convenience goods, the household telephone survey included questions on main food and top-

up food shopping. The results of the two types of food expenditure were then merged through the

application of a weight which reflects the estimated proportion of expenditure accounted for by

each goods type (70% main food / 30% top-up food). This forms a composite pattern of




convenience spending, expressed as a market share for each destination centre or foodstore for

each survey zone.

Figure 16.1: RBKC Household Telephone Survey Area, 2021

16.8 The household telephone survey also included seven questions on where respondents normally

undertake shopping for the following comparison goods types, which coincide with Experian

Business Strategies definitions of comparison goods expenditure:

▪ Clothing and footwear;

▪ Furniture, floor coverings and household textiles;

▪ DIY and decorating goods;

▪ Domestic appliances;

▪ Audio-visual equipment;

▪ Personal and medical goods; and

▪ Recreational and luxury goods.

16.9 In order to determine the composite market share for all comparison goods spending within the

survey area, we apply the weighted averages of the household telephone survey results for each

goods type based on the proportion of per capita spend on that goods type. This process

establishes the pattern of comparison spending for residents in each of the survey zones and is an

accepted approach which ensures that market shares for centres and stores are not skewed by any

particular goods category.




Population

16.10 Population estimates and forecasts for each of the survey zones are derived using the Experian E-

Marketer in-house system. This provides estimates of population based on trend-line projections

and the 2011 census for small, localised areas. Overall, the population of the survey area in 2021 is

estimated to be 804,711, growing to 821,195 in 2026, 833,476 in 2031, 847,196 in 2036, 860,197 in

2041, and 865,397 in 2043.

16.11 Population growth across the full Zone 1-10 Survey Area represents an overall increase of 7.5%

over the course of the assessment period. Population growth within Zones 1-3, which broadly

reflects the borough boundary, is considerably more conservative at 2.1% over the same period.

Available Expenditure in the Survey Area

16.12 The Experian E-Marketer system provides estimates of per capita expenditure for convenience and

comparison goods expenditure in 2019 prices. We have made deductions for Special Forms of

Trading (SFT) which represent expenditure not available to spend in shops (for example internet or

catalogue shopping). The deductions we have applied for SFT for convenience and comparison

goods are derived from Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 18 (October 2020).

16.13 As section 3 of this report set out, online shopping (SFT) is accounting for an increasingly significant

share of total available expenditure, particularly in respect of comparison goods shopping, and

Experian forecast that the ‘claim’ which online shopping makes on total available comparison and

convenience goods spend will increase considerably in future years. Retail capacity forecasts are

only concerned with identifying the need for new physical ‘bricks and mortar’ retail floorspace, and

it is necessary to deduct spending via Special Forms of Trading (SFT) from baseline expenditure

forecasts (Table 3, Appendix 2 and 3).

16.14 To estimate available expenditure in the survey area, we have applied growth rates based on

economic forecasts published by Experian Business Strategies, ensuring due consideration to the

consequences of Covid-19 (Retail Planner 18, October 2020).

16.15 There was a food shopping boom during 2020 as people when through a period of lockdown

‘panic-buying’ amid fears of food shortages, and restaurants and pubs closed removing the option

to ‘eat out’. This is forecast to substantially decline during 2021, thereby cancelling out this

fluctuation, with growth per head returning to pre-Covid levels. For convenience goods we have

applied growth rates of 0.2% per annum in 2022; 0% 2023-2027; and 0.1% for the period 2028-40.

16.16 Comparison goods are expected to benefit as an improvement in confidence and incomes have

helped stimulate discretionary spending. We have already seen retail spending bounce back

swiftly following the easing of lockdown during summer 2020. Volumes are expected to reach pre-

Covid levels in 2022, and whilst the growth outlook remains similar to before, in levels terms,

spending is likely to average 9% below levels expected before the pandemic. For comparison

goods, we have applied growth rates of -8.5% 2020; 6.5% 2021; 3.8% 2022; 3.0% 2023-2027; 2.9%

2028-2040.

16.17 Using the growth rates above and applying relevant deductions for SFT, total available expenditure

across the survey area has been grown in five-year intervals (including 2026, 2031, 2036, 2041) and

up to 2043. Total expenditure is forecast as follows:




▪ Appendix 1, Table 3 applies per capita expenditure to the population forecasts, which

indicates that total available convenience goods expenditure within the survey area is

£1,988m (2021). This is forecast to grow to £2,046m by 2026, £2,074m by 2031, £2,105m by

2036, £2,141m by 2041 and to a total of £2,151m by 2043. This equates to an overall growth

of £163m between 2021 and 2043 (Appendix 1, Table 3).

Overall expenditure growth within the borough is more conservative, ranging from 1.7% to

3.5% between 2021 and 2043.

▪ Comparison goods expenditure within the survey area at 2021 is £2.54 billion. This is forecast

to grow to £2.92 billion by 2026, £3.33 billion by 2031, £3.86 billion by 2036, £4.49 billion by

2040, to a total of £4.78 billion by 2043. This equates to an overall growth for comparison

goods expenditure in the survey area of £2.24 billion between 2021 and 2043 (88% growth)

(Appendix 2, Table 3).

Overall expenditure growth within the borough is more conservative, ranging from 76% to

79% between 2021 and 2043.

16.18 Longer term projections should be treated with caution due to the potential for changing economic

circumstances and growing margins of error over the longer term. The projections are subject to

greater than usual uncertainty due to the unprecedented nature of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Sales Efficiency, Existing Floorspace

16.19 In forecasting quantitative need for future retail floorspace, we have drawn on economic

commentary published by Experian in February 2020 and October 2020. In particular, our analysis

and need assessment has regard to the implications of Covid-19 on floorspace efficiency; i.e. the

rate in which existing floorspace will absorb any growth in expenditure over the plan period. This

has a direct impact on the levels of floorspace need arising.

16.20 Consistent with growth in expenditure per head on convenience goods, the short term outlook in

respect of the sales efficiency of existing floorspace has been upgraded to reflect the boost to

spending on food during the Covid-19 pandemic. This is a consequence of social distancing

measures such as working from home and spending more time at home, and being unable to eat

out in restaurants and cafes.

16.21 Experian assume a substantial increase in sales efficiency rate for existing convenience goods

floorspace of 5.4% in 2020, followed by a sizeable drop of -4.8% in 2021; and a subsequent return

to ‘more normal’ levels of 0.7% 2022, and 0.3% 2023-40 (source: Experian Retail Planner 18,

October 2020.

16.22 To the period February 2020 (pre-Covid-19), Experian confirmed that sales densities for

comparison goods floorspace had risen at a strong pace, and were expected to continue to do so –

remaining between 3.2% and 3.6% to the period 2026. Budgetary challenges, rising costs and tight

margins were driving retailers to either close down or seek floorspace efficiencies.

16.23 At that point in time, Experian explained that lacklustre demand for retail property, stubborn levels

of vacant units and a lull in retail construction point to limited prospects for expansion in retail

floorspace over the next few years. In this context, it was expected that existing comparison goods

floorspace would continue to absorb a greater proportion of any growth in retail expenditure as




businesses sought to improve the quality and interest of their shops for visitors. Experian

concluded that there would not therefore be a strong demand for additional comparison goods

retail space, with a growing proportion of expenditure growth being directed to the internet and

the consolidation and improvement of existing floorspace – particularly in stronger town and city

centres.

16.24 Subsequent to the publication of these trends in February 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic had far

reaching consequences for our high streets and town centres as all but essential shops and services

closed for long periods of time.

16.25 The Experian Retail Planner October 2020 revised sales efficiency forecasts in the context of Covid-

19, stating that sharp swings in retail spending due to the temporary closure of businesses as well

as ongoing social distancing restrictions have led to volatile sales densities in 2020. Whilst this is

expected to correct once the spending recovery becomes more established, the medium-term

forecast for sales densities has – following a period of instability – been revised lower in line with

the downgrade in the outlook for retail spending.

16.26 For comparison goods, Experian estimate that existing retail floorspace experienced a fall in retail

sales density by -14.1% as a consequence of store closures during lockdowns and short periods of

being ‘open for trading’. Experian forecast some correction to this, with an improved sales density

of 8.6% in 2021, 3.4% in 2022, 2.6% between 2023-2027, and 2.9% between 2028 and 2032.

16.27 Covid-19 has had a positive impact on the performance of existing foodstores and other

convenience goods floorspace in the short term, being retained in the medium to longer term; but

a negative impact on existing comparison goods floorspace over the short to medium term.

Convenience Goods Floorspace Performance

16.28 Table 16.1 below lists the most popular foodstores in RBKC by turnover derived from the survey

area (Zone 1-10). The data reaffirms that the most popular store is the Sainsbury’s Superstore at

Canal Way, Ladbroke Grove, located in the far north of the borough. Located in Zone 1, and with a

turnover of £102.8m, the foodstore draws a quarter of all expenditure from Zone 1 (£40m), and is

the only store in the borough to achieve a substantial inflow of trade, drawing £22.1m and £28.8m

from Zones 4 and 5 respectively. This foodstore falls within the Kensal Canalside Opportunity Area

and is currently the subject of pre-application discussions to include redevelopment.

16.29 The out-of-centre Tesco Superstore at Cromwell Road is the second most popular foodstore in the

borough. Located in Zone 2, and with a turnover of £53.2m, the store draws most trade from Zone

2 (£31.2m), but does attract people living in Zones 1, 3, 7, 9 and 10 also. The Waitrose foodstore

on King’s Road (Zone 3) is the most popular town centre store in the borough with a turnover of

£51.5m, closely followed by the Sainsbury’s Superstore on Cromwell Road (£44.5m), which is

located within the Air Terminal Neighbourhood Centre. Foodstores in Kensington High Street and

King’s Road (East) are amongst the most popular in the borough. The Portobello Road Market is

the 12th most popular food shopping destination in the borough, highlighting the importance to the

centres vitality and viability.

16.30 Within the survey area (Zones 1-10), the borough-wide network of foodstores combined (listed in

Table 6, Appendix 1) have a market share of 22.1% (£438.5m). This level of trade retention is not a

cause for concern given the extent of the survey area outer boundary and localised nature of




convenience goods shopping. Zones 1, 2 and 3 most closely correlate to the RBKC boundary, within

which the network of foodstores have a market share of 51.6%, 70.3% and 57.4% respectively.

Table 16.1: Most Popular Foodstores in RBKC by Turnover (£m)

Turnover (£m) Sequential Location

1 Sainsbury’s Superstore, Canal Way, Ladbroke

Grove £102.8m Out-of-centre

2 Tesco Superstore, West Cromwell Road,

Kensington £53.2m Out-of-centre

3 Waitrose, King’s Road (East) £51.5m Major Centre

4 Sainsbury’s Superstore, Cromwell Road Air

Terminal £44.5m Neighbourhood Centre

5 Waitrose, Kensington High Street £26.6m Major Centre

6 M&S, King’s Road (East) £20.4m Major Centre

7 M&S, Kensington High Street £17.3m Major Centre

8 Tesco Metro, Portobello Road £16.5m Special District Centre

9 Whole Foods, Kensington High Street £15.4m Major Centre

10 Tesco Metro, Notting Hill Gate £13.8m District Centre

11 M&S, Notting Hill Gate £11.0m District Centre

12 Portobello Market, Portobello Road £8.6m Special District Centre

13 M&S, Fulham Road (West) £8.4m District Centre

14 Tesco Express, Fulham Road (West) £7.3m District Centre

15 Sainsbury’s Local, Fulham Road (West) £6.9m District Centre

16 Sainsbury’s Local, Portobello Road £6.6m Special District Centre

17 M&S, Earls Court Road £5.5m District Centre

18 Sainsbury’s Local, Earls Court Road £4.2m District Centre

19 Waitrose (Little), Notting Hill Gate £3.9m District Centre

20 Sainsbury’s Local, Kensington High Street £2.8m Major Centre

21 Waitrose (Little), Old Brompton Road, South

Kensington £2.3m District Centre

22 Tesco Express, Old Brompton Road, South

Kensington £1.8m District Centre

16.31 We identify the three most popular foodstores for those living within each of the central survey

zones (1-3) as follows:

▪ Zone 1: Sainsbury’s Superstore, Canal Way (25.2%)

Tesco Metro, Portobello Road (10.4%)




▪ Zone 2: Tesco Superstore, West Cromwell Road (17.3%)

Sainsbury’s Superstore, Cromwell Road (15.0%)

Waitrose, Kensington High Street (10.5%)

▪ Zone 3: Waitrose, King’s Road (East) (27.5%)

M&S, King’s Road (East) (8.6%)

Tesco Superstore, West Cromwell Road (4.9%)

Sainsbury’s Superstore, Cromwell Road (4.5%)

16.32 Sainsbury’s superstore, Canal Way, Ladbroke Grove, is located within Zone 1 of the survey area,

accessed directly from the B450 Ladbroke Grove Road. It is the strongest performing foodstore in

RBKC, and has a convenience goods turnover of £102.8m – estimated to comprise around 75%

convenience goods net floorspace with the remainder occupied by comparison and other goods.

Based on this turnover, and with a net convenience goods sales area of 3,674 sq m net, we

estimate the sales density to be around £27,980 per sq m net – substantially higher than

Sainsbury’s company average of £12,191 per sq m net.

16.33 Tesco Superstore, West Cromwell Road, is the second most popular foodstore in RBKC, located in

Zone 2. We estimate that the store currently has a turnover of £53.2m. Based on this turnover,

and with a net convenience goods sales area of 3,060 sq m, we estimate the sales density to be

c.£17,386 per sq m net. This is higher than company average levels of £12,911 per sq m net.

16.34 The Sainsbury’s superstore on Cromwell Road is consistent with an out-of-centre store format, but

is allocated as the Air Terminal Neighbourhood Centre. Located in Zone 2, we estimate that the

store currently has a turnover of £44.5m. Based on this turnover, and with a net convenience

goods sales area of 2,731 sq m, we estimate the sales density to be c.£16,294 per sq m net. This is

higher than company average levels of £12,191 per sqm net. All main food superstores in RBKC are

performing particularly well.

Convenience Goods Floorspace Need

16.35 The convenience goods need assessment has assumed that RBKC will maintain existing market

share and the model has forecast the need for new convenience goods floorspace to the years

2026, 2031, 2036, 2041 and 2043.

16.36 Based on population and expenditure growth, and the detailed performance analysis of existing

floorspace, the analysis identifies a level of residual expenditure sufficient to support additional

convenience goods floorspace across RBKC. Consistent with growth in expenditure on convenience

goods, the short term outlook in respect of the sales efficiency of existing floorspace has been

upgraded to reflect the boost to spending on food. This is a consequence of social distancing

measures such as working from home and spending more time at home, and being unable to eat

out in restaurants and cafes.

16.37 In assessing capacity for future convenience goods floorspace, we have assumed that the efficiency

with which existing floorspace is being used will increase over time. Experian forecast an increase

in sales efficiency rate for existing floorspace of 0.7% in 2022 and 0.3% thereafter. Based on the

role and performance of the foodstores and comparisons with company average sales densities, we

would expect new quality floorspace to achieve at least £12,000 per sq m net over the plan period.




16.38 The level of borough-wide need for additional convenience goods floorspace is set out in Table

16.2, by total borough and also in Table 16.3 by Central/North Sub-Area and South Sub-Area.

Table 16.2: RBKC Quantitative Need: Convenience Goods

2026

Sq m net

2031

Sq m net

2036

Sq m net

2041

Sq m net

2043

Sq m net

9,611

9,335 9,154 9,036

8,918

Source: Table 13a, Appendix 1

Table 16.3: RBKC Quantitative Need: Convenience Goods, by Sub-Area 2026

Sq m net

2031

Sq m net

2036

Sq m net

2041

Sq m net

2043

Sq m net

Central/North Sub-

Area

8,439

8,231 8,094 8,005 7,916

South Sub-Area 1,172 1104 1,061 1,031 1,002

Source: Table 13b and 13c, Appendix 1

Comparison Goods Inflow

16.39 In addition to generated expenditure from survey area residents, there will also be a level of trade

flowing into the borough from further afield. This will contribute to supporting additional/new

floorspace and needs to be quantified as part of this assessment. The contribution of visitor and

international expenditure to the RBKC is well documented, including in London First’s Report –

‘Tourist Information, Mapping the Local Value of International Visitors’. This puts RBKC in the

‘Central Tourism Core’ alongside Westminster and City of London, which – combined – are

responsible for more than three quarters of international tourist spending.

16.40 The London First Report collates robust data to demonstrate the contribution of international

tourism spend to individual borough economies. Gross Value Added (GVA) is a measure of

additional economic value arising from direct investment (in this case tourism spend).

Additional value is created because the spending by tourists supports considerable activity in

other sectors, i.e. a ‘chain of events’. RBKC has a significantly higher GVA £m (over £5b) than

any other London Borough, including Westminster. It is therefore crucial that ‘inflow’ of

expenditure is taken into account when forecasting floorspace need as part of this Study.

16.41 The 2008 Study commissioned in-centre surveys to define the extent of the catchment areas of the

eleven main town centres. The surveys enabled an estimate of the proportion of shoppers in the

centres travelling from beyond the survey area boundary (i.e. the inflow of trade from regional,

national or international visitors). In total, 1,400 interviews were undertaken and the following

levels of inflow were estimated:

▪ Total inflow to survey area Zones 1-10 – 55%;

▪ Total inflow to Central/North Sub-Area – 40%;

▪ Total inflow to South Sub-Area – 65%.




16.42 The analysis of data and findings set out in this up-to-date report highlights the lower level of

market share beyond the borough boundary, with the RBKC town centres drawing less trade from

Zones 4-10 than identified previously in 2008. This assessment has drawn on the 2008 inflow data,

but reduced inflow in the context of current performance and wider national trends. The inflow

figures used in this up-to-date assessment are: 50% to the total survey area, 35% to the

Central/North Sub-Area, and 60% to the South Sub-Area.

Comparison Goods Floorspace Performance

16.43 For comparison goods, we have calculated the levels of comparison goods trade retention by the

RBKC town centres to inform the baseline understanding of floorspace performance. Section 3

discussed in detail the role of the RBKC town centres within the wider sub-region, and here we

explore the floorspace performance of the individual RBKC centres in greater depth.

16.44 Table 16.4 (below) sets out the market share and trade retention of each of the RBKC town centres

within the borough (Zones 1-3) and also the wider Zone 1-10 survey area. The data demonstrates

that King’s Road and Kensington High Street are by far the most popular and most visited town

centres in the borough drawing 24.1% and 21.9% of Zone 1-3 trade respectively. The data also

demonstrates the reliance of Knightsbridge on visitor and tourism trade consistent with its role as

an International Centre, and unique mix of town centre uses and operators, and also hotels.

16.45 The results of the survey demonstrate that the eleven higher order town centres in RBKC retain

£649.2m (25.5%) of comparison goods expenditure generated within the Zone 1-10 Survey Area;

but within the borough, trade retention is higher. Within Zone 1-3, the eleven higher order RBKC

town centres retain £357m (56.7%) of comparison goods expenditure generated.

Table 16.4: RBKC Comparison Goods Spending Destinations (2021)

Zone 1-3

£m

Zone 1-3

Market Share %

Zone 1-10

£m

Zone 1-10

Market Share %

King’s Road (East) £151.8m 24.1% £329.4m 13.1%

Kensington High Street £137.6m 21.9% £201.9m 8.0%

Notting Hill Gate £25.1m 4.0% £33.3m 1.3%

Knightsbridge £12.8m 2.0% £20.2m 0.8%

King’s Road (West) £8.4m 1.3% £15.7m 0.6%

Fulham Road (West) £4.5m 0.7% £14.6m 0.6%

Portobello Road £9.2m 1.5% £12.0m 0.5%

Westbourne Grove £1.6m 0.3% £6.2m 0.2%

South Kensington £2.7m 0.4% £3.3m 0.1%

Earls Court Road £2.7m 0.4% £3.0m 0.1%

Brompton Cross £0.5m 0.05% £0.5m 0.05%

16.46 Table 16.5 (below) sets out RBKC market share for comparison goods derived from the 2008 Retail

and Leisure Needs Assessment, and the most recent 2021 household telephone survey. This was

discussed in detail in Section 3, and highlights that RBKC has improved trade retention within the




borough, but lost market share from beyond the borough. The up-to-date analysis identifies that

trade drawn from within the borough to RBKC town centres has been relatively robust to the

opening of Westfield White City, with impact being lower on borough trade diversion that initially

estimated in 2008 and 2016. The greatest level of impact has been in Zone 1, with a considerable

trade diversion from Kensington High Street. Zone 2 and 3 have experienced substantial market

share uplifts.

16.47 The localised increase in market share may also be a consequence of the post pandemic ‘shop

local’ trend. The fall in market share outside the borough demonstrates the need to support

diverse and multi-purpose town centres as it is becoming increasingly challenging to attract people

from further afield.

16.48 Market share decline beyond the borough is a consequence of a number of trends including post

pandemic ‘shop local’, online shopping preventing the need to travel longer distances for

goods/products, and the opening of Westfield White City in October 2008 which has had some

impact on the higher order town centres in RBKC. Despite distance, all outer zones (4/5/6/7/8/9

and 10) are well connected to Westfield White City on the Overground, Central and Circle lines,

linking east/west and north/south.

Table 16.5: Total RBKC Trade Retention/Market Share [Comparison Goods], 2008-2021

Study Year Zone 1-3, Market Share % Zone 1-10, Market Share %

2008 54.0% 30.9%

2021 56.7% 25.5%

NB: Zone 1-3 ‘best fit’ geographical area to RBKC.

16.49 Table 16.6 (below) focuses in more detail on the localised catchment of each of the RBKC town

centres, setting out their location zone and comparison goods market share within that zone. The

2008 Study presented ‘combined’ sub-area market shares, and it has not been possible to compare

historic trade retention rates over time by town centre, but this provides a baseline for monitoring

moving forwards over the plan period – particularly in light of Battersea Power Station opening in

2022.

16.50 The data again highlights the role of Knightsbridge as an International Centre and its reliance on

visitors and tourism from further afield. Few people living in RBKC look towards Knightsbridge as

their main or most visited town centre – in stark contrast to Kensington High Street and King’s

Road. The data indicates that the town centre hierarchy remains relevant and up-to-date with all

district centres achieving a considerably lower market share, reflecting more localised shopping

roles.




Table 16.6: Town Centre Location Zone, Comparison Goods Market Share

Town Centre Location Zone Market Share %

in Location Zone

2021

King’s Road (East) 3 62.8%

Kensington High Street 2 45.3%

Notting Hill Gate 2 4.4%

Knightsbridge 6 0.9%

King’s Road (West) 3 4.0%

Fulham Road (West) 3 1.8%

Portobello Road 1 4.2%

Westbourne Grove 1 0.3%

South Kensington 3 0.8%

Earls Court Road 2 1.0%

Brompton Cross 3 0.0%

Comparison Goods Floorspace Need

16.51 The comparison goods need assessment has assumed that RBKC will maintain existing market

share and the model has forecast the need for new comparison goods floorspace to the years

2026, 2031, 2036, 2041 and 2043.

16.52 In assessing capacity for future comparison goods floorspace, we have assumed that the efficiency

with which existing floorspace is being used will increase over time, and we have assumed an

annual growth in existing sales per sq m net of 3.4% in 2022, 2.6% between 2023-2027, and 2.9%

between 2028 and 2032. Based on the role and performance of the town centres, we would

expect new quality floorspace to achieve at least £10,000 per sq m net.

16.53 The level of borough-wide need for additional comparison goods floorspace is set out in Table 16.7,

by total borough and also in Table 16.8 by Central/North Sub-Area and South Sub-Area.

16.54 The figures demonstrate that there is currently no need for additional comparison goods

floorspace over the plan period. The reasons for this are consistent with identified national trends.

Expenditure growth has been hit in the short to medium term as a consequence of Covid-19, SFT is

substantially greater through accelerated trends, and the rate that existing floorspace is absorbing

expenditure continues to remain strong (claiming a high proportion of expenditure growth). More

locally, population growth in the borough is substantially more constrained than elsewhere in the

sub-region.

16.55 The rate of expenditure growth is not sufficient to substantially override the rate that existing

floorspace is absorbing spend over time. Combined with such a strong growth in SFT leads to the




current status quo, and only a small level of additional need over the plan period. The over-supply

is not currently substantial, so that doesn’t raise a huge concern in respect of the need to lose

space, but the strategy must protect existing provision to consolidate and support healthy town

centres over the plan period.

Table 16.7: RBKC Quantitative Need: Comparison Goods

2026

Sq m net

2031

Sq m net

2036

Sq m net

2041

Sq m net

2043

Sq m net

-413 -2,115 -2,265 -1,691 -1,095

Source: Table 13, Appendix 2

Table 16.8: RBKC Quantitative Need: Comparison Goods, by Sub-Area

2026

Sq m net

2031

Sq m net

2036

Sq m net

2041

Sq m net

2043

Sq m net

Central/North Sub-

Area -327 -940 -1,058 -940 -776

South Sub-Area 15 -1,115 -1,113 -586 -108

Source: Table 14 and 15, Appendix 2




17. Leisure Assessment

17.1 Commercial leisure and cultural uses have played an increasingly important role in the vitality and

viability of town centres by providing complementary uses that strengthen both the daytime and

evening economies. This section of the report considers the current provision of commercial

leisure uses throughout the study area, including patterns of visits to restaurants, cafes, cinema,

nightclubs, museums, and cultural venues.

17.2 Drawing on the qualitative analysis of current provision, consumer choices, visitor patterns and

commercial trends, we provide commentary on the potential need for different leisure uses. For

the purposes of this leisure assessment we have analysed leisure travel patterns across the

individual survey zones 1-10 (See Fig.17.1).

Figure 17.1: RBKC Household Telephone Survey Area, 2021

17.3 The telephone survey achieved the target response of 1,000 interviews, and within that sample

90% stated that they took part in leisure or cultural activities. In respect of sampling, 32% were

male respondents and 68% were female; and the age classifications were as follows:

▪ 18-24 - 10.3%

▪ 25-34 - 22.5%

▪ 35-44 - 25.4%

▪ 45-54 - 14.2%

▪ 55-64 - 13.0%

▪ 65+ - 14.5%




National Context

17.4 Trends in the commercial leisure sector have been discussed in earlier sections of this report,

documenting the need to inject life into our high streets and the continued evolution towards

multi-dimensional town centres. The town centre of the future should attract local people to take

part in a variety of activities – including dining, leisure and sport, culture and the arts,

entertainment and medical services alongside business premises, offices, and residential.

17.5 In recent years, the commercial leisure sector has played an increasingly important role in the

vitality and viability of town centres, as the nature of town centres continues to evolve. Leisure

uses will continue to be important attractors in town centres, but there are challenges. The casual

dining sector, for example, has reached a level of saturation and increased competition has led to

casualties in recent years. Analysts suggest that in addition to market saturation, the rise in food

costs, staff costs, rents and business rates have all impacted on operators’ profits; as well as

emerging on-line delivery companies such as Uber Eats, Deliveroo and Just Eat.

17.6 The consequences of Covid-19 and associated lockdown and social distancing since March 2020,

will have further far-reaching impacts on the leisure and casual dining sector, with on-line delivery

companies becoming firmly established in people’s homes. Competition for high street operators

has exacerbated and accelerated over a very short period of time.

17.7 Nevertheless, leisure uses will continue to form an important part of our town centres over the

forthcoming plan period. Section 16 of this report has discussed forecast growth in spend per head

for food an non-food goods, and in Table 17.1 below we compare this to spend per head on leisure

experiences. In summary, food shopping experienced strong growth during the pandemic in 2020

whilst non-food saw a strong fall in expenditure due to lockdown measures and shop closures for

long periods of time. Whilst not to pre-pandemic levels, both corrected themselves to some extent

during 2021 and future forecasts beyond 2021 reflect ‘more normal’ longer term trends.

17.8 The impacts of Covid-19 on leisure spend has been substantially greater, with a fall of 53.8% in

spend per head during 2020 as all leisure venues closed for long periods of time. The ‘pent up’

demand for leisure experiences and socialising is reflected in the particularly strong growth in

spend per head during 2021 (64.7%). Whilst this an anomaly within longer term trends, it is clear

that leisure spend will experience a stronger growth than retail throughout 2022 and remain at

strong levels from 2023 onwards (2.9%).

17.9 It is evident from the data that leisure uses will remain a valued and relevant part of our town

centres in the future. Despite ‘at home’ leisure experiences such as streaming services growing in

popularity, the pandemic has highlighted the need and desire for people to leave their homes and

socialise with friends and family across a range of leisure experiences.

Table 17.1: UK retail and leisure spend per head 2020-40

Vol Growth Per Head (%)

2020 2021 2022 2023-27 2028-40

Convenience Goods

8.4% -6.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1%

Comparison Goods

-8.5% 6.5% 3.8% 3.0% 2.9%

Leisure Spend -53.8% 64.7% 14.8% 2.9% 0.9%

Source: Experian Business Strategies, October 2020, [Figure 1a]




17.10 When considering the need for new leisure floorspace and leisure uses over the plan period, recent

planning reform must be taken into consideration. This is discussed in detail in Section 2 of this

report, setting out the wide-reaching reforms to the Use Classes Order following the on-set of the

Covid-19 pandemic; the overall aim of government being to support the high street and respond to

high vacancy rates and consumer demands.

17.11 This was a specific and swift response to the economic impact of Coronavirus on high streets and

those premises in A1 and A3 in particular. In force from 1st September 2020, new planning

regulations revoked parts A and D of the existing use classes order and introduced a new

‘commercial, business and service’ Use Class E. Leisure uses are now split into Use Class E, Use

Class F and sui generis, as follows:

▪ Use Class E includes:

o sale of food and drink consumption on premises, ‘cafes and restaurants’ (former A3)

▪ Sui Generis includes:

o theatres

o night-clubs

o public houses, wine bars, or drinking establishments – from 1 September 2020,

previously Class A4

o drinking establishments with expanded food provision – from 1 September 2020,

previously Class A4

o hot food takeaways (for the sale of hot food where consumption of that food is mostly

undertaken off the premises) – from 1 September 2020, previously Class A5

o venues for live music performance – newly defined as ‘Sui Generis’ use from 1 September

2020

o cinemas – from 1 September 2020, previously Class D2(a)

o concert halls – from 1 September 2020, previously Class D2(b)

o bingo halls – from 1 September 2020, previously Class D2(c)

o dance halls – from 1 September 2020, previously Class D2(d)

▪ Use Class F1 includes:

o F1(b) Display of works of art (otherwise than for sale or hire) – from 1 September 2020,

previously Class D1

o F1(c) Museums – from 1 September 2020, previously Class D1

17.12 New Use Class E does not allow policy to control the mix and proportions of shops, cafes and

restaurants, but all other leisure uses fall within sui generis or Use Class F1 enabling a development

plan to promote or restrict uses as necessary.




Commercial Leisure Choices

17.13 The household survey results enabled the identification of the most popular leisure activities across

the sub-region, the most frequent being ‘cinema’ and the least frequent being ‘nightclubs’:

▪ Cafes - 70.7%

▪ Evening Eating Out/Restaurants - 65.8%

▪ Museums - 63.9%

▪ Cinema - 63.0%

▪ Cultural/Arts Venues - 61.7%

▪ Daytime Eating Out/Restaurants - 59.3%

▪ Nightclubs - 13.4%

Cafes

17.14 Visiting cafes is the most popular choice of leisure activity amongst those living in the survey area

(Table 17.2). The most popular destinations within Zone 1 are Portobello Road and Notting Hill

Gate; Zone 2 is Kensington High Street; and in Zone 3 is King’s Road (East). Café visits are generally

undertaken ‘close to home’, and this is reflected in the survey results with RBKC having more

limited influence on those living in the outer survey zones (Zone 4-10).

Table 17.2: Preferred Café Choices of those living within Zones 1-10

Zone 1 Portobello Road (29%)

Notting Hill Gate (10%)

Ladbroke Grove (9%)

Central London (7%)

Zone 6 Central London (19%)

Pimlico (19%)

King’s Road (East) (13%)

Victoria (12%)

Zone 2 Kensington High Street (52%)


Portobello Road (6%)

Zone 7 King’s Road (East) (21%)

Battersea (19%)

Clapham Junction (19%)


Central London (10%)

Fulham Road (West) (7%)

King’s Road (West) (7%)

Zone 8 Fulham Broadway (24%)



Zone 4 Willesden Green (18%)



Hammersmith Town Centre (20%)


Maida Vale (12%)


Zone

10

Westfield White City (18%)

Shepherd’s Bush Green (13%)

Chiswick Town Centre (11%)

Note: Highest responses only

17.15 Portobello Road does attract some residents from Zone 5 (11%), whilst King’s Road (East) is a

popular first choice for those living in Zones 6, 7 and 8; Kensington High Street attracts people

living in Zone 9; and Fulham Broadway draws from Zone 8. Westfield White City has a limited

influence on the survey area, and the new Battersea development may have an impact on King’s

Road (East) market share – particularly in Zone 7. This should be monitored.




17.16 The health check of South Kensington set out earlier in this report, identified a strong café culture,

but the results of the household telephone survey suggest that few borough residents are choosing

this destination as their first choice/most visited – just 1.7% from Zone 1; 4.5% from 2 and 3.4%

from Zone 3. The data demonstrates the role and importance of the visitor and tourist economy to

South Kensington from outside of the borough.

Restaurants

17.17 Eating out in the evening is the second most popular leisure activity for those living within the

RBKC sub-region. Table 17.3 demonstrates that the most popular choice of destination for those

living within Zones 1, 2 and 3 is Central London (28%), Kensington High Street (41%) and King’s

Road East (39%) respectively. The greatest levels of competition outside the borough – where

borough residents are choosing to visit – includes Westfield London (Zone 1 residents) and Central

London (Zone 1/2/3 residents). Within the borough, Kensington High Street, King’s Road (East),

Notting Hill Gate, Portobello Road, King’s Road (West) and Knightsbridge, are the most popular

evening restaurant destinations.

Table 17.3: Evening Restaurant Choices of those living within Zones 1-10


Westfield London (16%)




Pimlico (18%)

Victoria (13%)





Knightsbridge (6%)


Battersea (20%)

Putney Town Centre (13%)



Kensington High Street (7%)

King’s Road (West) (7%)




Willesden (8%)

Kilburn Town Centre (6%)

Zone 9 Hammersmith Town Centre (24%)




Fulham Broadway (10%)

Fulham Broadway (10%)

Westminster City (10%)

Zone

10



Shepherd’s Bush Green (14%)

Chiswick Town Centre (11%)


17.18 RBKC town centres draw little ‘evening eating out’ trade from residents living beyond the borough

in Zones 4-10. The survey identifies inflow of this activity mostly from Zone 6 (King’s Road (East))

(8%), and Zone 9 (Kensington High Street) (9%). A number of town centres will benefit from

substantial visitor and tourist trade, including those staying in the high numbers of hotels across

the borough.




17.19 The analysis of ‘daytime restaurant’ usage identifies a greater level of trade retention driven by the

RBKC town centres (Table 17.4). In Zone 1, for example, Portobello Road is the most popular

daytime restaurant destination (20%) for those living within that zone; in Zone 2 and 3, Kensington

High Street and King’s Road (East) both have strong market shares (41% and 48% respectively).

Notting Hill Gate and South Kensington are also popular daytime restaurant destinations for those

living within the borough. The higher levels of trade retention – when compared to evening

restaurant usage – will be driven to a greater extent by daytime shopping habits and linked trips

between shops and restaurants.

Table 17.4: Daytime Restaurant Choices of those living within Zones 1-10

Zone 1 Portobello Road (20%)

Westfield London (16%)


Central London (4%)


Victoria (20%)




Central London (7%)

Zone 7 Battersea (25%)


Clapham Junction (18%)




South Kensington (10%)






Willesden (11%)

Wembley Town Centre (7%)

Zone 9 Hammersmith Town Centre (23%)



Shepherd’s Bush (11%)

Zone 5 Central London (17%) Zone

10


Shepherd’s Bush (12%)


17.20 Outside the borough, King’s Road (East) draws residents from Zone 6 (10%), Zone 7 (18%) and Zone

8 (17%); and Kensington High Street draws residents from Zone 9 (15%). There is little trade draw

from beyond the borough to the remaining RBKC town centres. The key competing destinations

for those living within the borough include Westfield White City and Central London. For those

living outside the borough (within Zones 4-10), preferred choices include Central London, Victoria,

Battersea, Clapham Junction, Fulham Broadway, Hammersmith, Willesden, and Shepherd’s Bush.

Cinema

17.21 There are four cinema’s in RBKC including The Gate Picturehouse, Notting Hill; the Picturehouse,

Fulham Road (West); Everyman Chelsea, King’s Road (West); and the Electric Cinema, Portobello

Road:

▪ The Gate Picturehouse, Notting Hill Gate District Centre (located in Zone 2): The Gate

Cinema is located on Notting Hill Gate (A402) opposite the junction with Pembridge Road,

and close to the underground station entrance/exit. The Grade II listed building first opened




its doors as a cinema in 1911; but during the Second World War, the ornate exterior was

severely damaged and subsequently replaced with a plain façade and a flat roof. The single-

screen cinema became a Picturehouse in 2003, and in 2004 the building underwent

renovation, restoring the ornate Edwardian plasterwork in the auditorium alongside general

interior improvements.

The Gate Picturehouse, Notting Hill Gate

▪ Picturehouse, Fulham Road (West) District Centre (located in Zone 3): The Fulham Road

Picturehouse is located on the corner of Fulham Road and Drayton Gardens. Formerly a

Cineworld cinema, the venue offers six cinema screens, over 1,000 seats, a café and

members bar. The 1930’s listed building was refurbished for opening on 8th December 2019,

incorporating an internal vintage theme to reflect the date of the building.

Picturehouse, Fulham Road (West) District Centre




▪ Everyman Cinema – ‘Everyman Chelsea’ – King’s Road (West) District Centre (located in

Zone 3): The fully refurbished 3-screen boutique Everyman cinema opened in summer 2020

on the junction of Old Church Street and King’s Road. The cinema forms part of a new

mixed-use residential development. The three screens offer around 200 seats, with the

cinema also providing a bar with full foot and drinks licensed menu. This cinema opened

during the Covid-19 global pandemic and it is likely that the destination is still establishing a

full customer base and levels of influence across the survey area.

Everyman Chelsea, King’s Road (West) District Centre

▪ The Electric Cinema, Portobello Road Special District Centre (located in Zone 1): The

Electric Cinema is a longstanding institution on Portobello Road, located in the centre of the

district centre. It first opened in 1911, and today has been refurbished to a high standard

offering mainstream and art house films, bar and restaurant. The 83 seat capacity cinema is

a well-known and important destination attractor in the district centre.

The Electric Cinema, Portobello Road Special Distrt Centre




17.22 The two Picturehouses in Notting Hill Gate and Fulham Road (West) and the Everyman Chelsea are

the most popular cinema’s located in the borough. For those residents living in Zone 1, the Gate

Picturehouse Notting Hill Gate is the second most popular cinema (25%) after the Vue at Westfield

Shepherd’s Bush (30.4%). Zone 1 residents also visit the Vue at the West 12 Shopping Centre in

Shepherd’s Bush (20%) and the Electric Cinema in Portobello Road (4%). The Electric Cinema is the

only cinema located in Zone 1.

17.23 For those residents living in Zone 2, The Gate Picturehouse in Notting Hill Gate is the most popular

cinema destination achieving a market share of 23%, followed by the Vue Westfield (16%), the

Picturehouse Fulham Road (West) (13%), and the Vue West 12 Shopping Centre Shepherd’s Bush

(11%). The Electric Cinema has a market share of 7%, and the Everyman Chelsea has a market

share of 5%. The Gate Picturehouse, Notting Hill, is the only cinema located in Zone 2.

17.24 For those residents living in Zone 3, The Picturehouse Fulham Road (West) is the most popular

destination, achieving a market share of 40%. This is followed by the Everyman Chelsea (17%) and

the Vue Cinema Fulham Broadway.

17.25 In Zone 1, Shepherd’s Bush is the most dominant cinema destination, whilst in Zone 2 and 3

Notting Hill Gate and Fulham Road (West) are the preferred destinations of choice. The Everyman

Chelsea opened during the Covid-19 pandemic – a time when people were adhering to and

choosing social distancing measures. We would expect over time this cinema to establish it’s role

in the catchment and possibly increase market share and consumers increase leisure trips and re-

visit cinema destinations. Nevertheless, the Picturehouse in Fulham Road (West) remains the

largest cinema in the borough with 6 screens and over a 1,000 seat capacity.

17.26 Table 17.5 demonstrates that The Gate Picturehouse attracts people living outside the borough in

Zone 5 and 9; the Picturehouse Fulham Road (West) attracts people living in Zone 8; the Everyman

Chelsea is attracting people living in Zones 6 and 8. Whilst the Electric Cinema is likely to be used

by visitors and those living further afield, it is not a first choice destination for people living outside

RBKC.

Table 17.5: Preferred Cinema Choices for residents living in Zone 4-10

Zone 4

Vue O2, Finchley Road (31%) Lexi Cinema, Kensal Green (20%)

Zone 8

Vue, Fulham Broadway (61%) Odeon Luxe, Putney (13%) Picturehouse, Fulham Road (West) (5%) Everyman Chelsea, King’s Road (West) (5%)

Zone 5

Vue, Westfield, Shepherd’s Bush (29%) Gate Picturehouse, Notting Hill (18%) Everyman Cinema, Maida Vale (11%)

Zone 9

Vue, West 12 Shopping Centre Shepherd’s Bush (31%) Vue, Westfield, Shepherd’s Bush (27%) Vue Fulham Broadway (9%) The Gate Picturehouse, Notting Hill Gate (9%)

Zone 6

Curzon Cinema, Victoria (43%) Curzon Cinema, Mayfair (14%) Everyman, King’s Road, Chelsea (3%)

Zone 10

Vue, Westfield Shepherd’s Bush (36%) Vue West 12 Shopping Centre Shepherds Bush (18%) Vue Royale Leisure Park, Acton (16%)

Zone 7

Cineworld, Wandsworth (39%) Picturehouse, Fulham Road (West) (11%)




17.27 Traditional cinema venues are changing and adapting in response to wider TV, movie and

streaming trends, and whilst the presence of cinemas in the leisure sector appears secure at

present, the future is somewhat uncertain. From an historic high immediately post-war of 1.64

billion admissions during 1946, UK cinema admissions gradually declined to an all-time low of just

54 million in 1984. Since that time, the advent of the multiplex and record levels of investment in

improving the theatrical experience, has seen admissions recover and since 2000 they have

remained above 150 million.

17.28 There has been much uncertainty in the cinema market given the advent of on-demand streaming

services such as Netflix, a cheaper option in the comfort of your own home. Nevertheless, a

serious detrimental impact has not yet occurred, with cinemas experiencing their highest

admission figures in 2018 and 2019 since 1971.

17.29 Reasons for the market growth is varied. The industry has focused on the release of major

blockbuster movies drawing in the crowds, and – importantly – include a more diverse genre from

musicals to superhero and animated family films. Alongside films, cinemas have sought to diversify

to offer live theatre and opera screenings, providing an alternative entertainment experience, and

making West End productions affordable to a wider audience.

17.30 Alongside film release has been the significant investment in the actual cinema venues and the

creation of an attractive cinema-going experience. Consumer expectations have risen, and

cinemas have become places of comfy sofas, licensed bars, and good quality food and drink. Big

cinema chains have installed higher-quality screens, and are beginning to introduce monthly

subscription plans similar to the ‘streamers’. Notably, the industry has seen the rise of more

boutique operators such as Everyman; and chain that has tripled its number of venues and level of

attendance across the UK over the last 4 years by offering a high end, boutique, quality cinema

experience.

17.31 Crucially, as the younger generation question the need for cinema visits, preferring to stream more

cost effectively at home, the largest growth has been in the older age categories. These groups,

with a greater disposable income, often enjoy a pre-film dinner in the bar with friends, followed by

a drink in the comfy reclining chairs on offer.

17.32 A relatively new trend in the cinema market is the growth of the ‘pop-up’ cinema, estimated to be

worth around £10 million in 2019, and growing at between 20-25% per year. A pop-up cinema is a

mobile or temporary cinema, usually set-up in locations such as a park, beach, the grounds of a

visitor attraction, on a city centre roof-top or other distinctive indoor or outdoor venue.

Sometimes, for example, they are decorated seasonally, such as the Christmas themed secret

cinemas. They tend to screen timeless classics or popular modern films that consumers are very

familiar with, enjoying the experience of watching them again in a very different environment.

Operators include Luna, Rooftop Film Club, Sundown Cinema, Backyard Cinema and Secret Cinema,

for example.

17.33 In RBKC, these trends would suggest that the four existing cinemas will remain viable, but that

there is unlikely to be a need for any additional cinema facilities over the plan period. Each cinema

occupies an important town centre location and must be protected.

17.34 The newly opened Everyman Chelsea is a commercial response to market demand and is already

proving popular despite opening during a global health pandemic. It has been a good addition to




the town centre mix. The smaller art house cinemas in Notting Hill and Portobello Road

supplement the larger commercial cinemas on the borough boundary at Shepherd’s Bush, and any

further competition within this catchment should be resisted. The Picturehouse and Everyman in

the southern part of RBKC are providing a good coverage with limited leakage to alternative

destinations outside the borough.

17.35 Cinemas were continuing to perform well throughout 2019, but a post Covid world and the

continued march of streaming services like Netflix and the Pop-Up Cinema trend, retain a level of

uncertainty over what the future for the cinema industry might look like and what direction it

might take. We conclude there is no need to plan for additional cinema provision over the plan

period.

Nightclubs

17.36 The nightclub industry has experienced a sharp decline in recent years, with over half of clubs

closing down within a decade. This was partly attributed to the change of pub licensing laws in

2005, when pubs and bars could obtain licences to stay open later. This discouraged ‘moving on’ to

the next venue once the pub had shut at 11am; with consumers able to stay in their pub and bar of

choice until 12am or later.

17.37 More recently, nightclubs have experienced a ‘stop / start’ trend following various periods of

‘lockdown’ as a consequence of the Covid-19 pandemic since March 2020. It is thought that for

many the financial burden of closure will lead to many never re-opening or having to close down

over the next few months. Aside from pub licenses and economic challenges, it is widely

documented that ‘Generation Z’ – the younger generation that has never known a life without

technology – are no longer frequenting nightclubs as a staple weekend activity. There have been a

number of growing trends in recent years:

▪ ‘Generation Z’ are more aware of healthy lifestyles, including lower alcohol consumption and

healthier drinking and eating habits;

▪ Nightclubs are no longer the way to meet people. Meeting through friends and family, and

online dating apps, is generally considered the preferred option;

▪ There is a lack of brand loyalty, with this generation not committing to visiting the same

nightclub time and again, week in week out. Technology has opened the doors to different

destinations and alternative leisure experiences;

▪ Millennials and Generation Z instead enjoy experiences from home, including take-aways,

online movie streaming services, and luxury/varied drink offerings such as wine clubs, gin

experiences and craft beer delivered straight to your door;

▪ The importance of ‘human connection’ has risen, with everyone so reliant on technology in

their lives. When people meet up it is reported that they want to do it properly over a nice

meal and conversation, with nightclubs not providing the right atmosphere or setting for

this.

17.38 It is thought that there will always be a place for nightclubs in their current form, but perhaps

fewer niche venues will specialise in becoming a ‘clubbing paradise’, whilst many others diversify

instead to meet wider consumer needs. Hybrid venues are likely to rise in popularity, signalling a

new era of nightclubs. Hybrid venues offer a daytime offering and nightlife scene too; from coffee


https://www.ndml.co.uk/articles/from-daylife-to-nightlife-how-are-bars-are-transforming-their-day-time-offering/



and brunch in the morning through to cocktails and live music at night, extending the revenue

period.

17.39 The results of the household telephone survey demonstrates that nightclubs are the least popular

leisure activity for those living within the survey area, with only a very small proportion (13.4%)

stating that they visit this type of venue. This leisure activity is predominantly age specific and

limited in reach to the full catchment population. Two key nightclubs have been identified through

our analysis including ‘Dolce Club’ South Kensington and ‘151 King’s Road’. Nevertheless, residents

in the survey area – including within the borough –state that they predominantly visit Central

London for this leisure activity, with little reference made to these facilities in RBKC.

17.40 Societal trends and a deep commercial understanding of local markets will drive investment in any

new nightclub venues in RBKC. The composite analysis suggests that there is unlikely to be a need

to plan for new nightclub venues over the plan period, and that nightclubs are not crucial in

maintaining the vitality and viability of any particular RBKC town centre. A policy framework can

manage the introduction of new nightclub uses effectively – whether supporting or resisting – as

they continue to fall under the ‘Sui Generis’ Use Classes classification. This is more often the remit

of licensing as a consequence of potential noise and impact on residential amenity. Any

applications should consequently be considered robustly on a case by case basis.

Museums

17.41 Earlier sections have highlighted the world class museums helping give RBKC its international and

national reputation. The Local Plan highlights that these attract large numbers of visitors from

beyond the borough boundary, representing a significant ‘economic inflow’ substantially greater

than most London Boroughs.

17.42 In recognition of its outstanding universal value as a visitor destination, the Council and the London

Plan have designated the museums complex in Kensington as a Strategic Cultural Area; i.e.

comprising internationally important cultural institutions. South Kensington is home to three

international museums; the Victoria and Albert Museum (V&A), the Natural History Museum and

the Science Museum. These remain the most visited museums by those living within the survey

area, with the V&A being the most popular with a 52% market share; followed by the Natural

History Museum (35%) and the Science Museum (30%).

17.43 Beyond these three world famous museums, residents within the survey area are also choosing to

visit the British Museum in Bloomsbury, the National Gallery in Trafalgar Square, the Royal

Academy on Piccadilly and the Design Museum on Kensington High Street. Museums play a

particularly important role in RBKC, retaining the borough’s position on the world stage in respect

of these visitor attractions; and they should continue to be protected over the plan period.

Cultural/Arts Venues

17.44 The majority of respondents to this question cited ‘Central London’ as their preferred destination

for cultural and arts venues including theatres and art galleries, with a strong market share across

Zones 1-10 (59%). Specifically cited venues include Tate Modern Bankside (24% market share); The

National Gallery, Trafalgar Square (19%); Tate Britain, Millbank (18%); Saatchi Gallery, King’s Road

(5%); The Royal Academy, Piccadilly (4%); Royal Court Theatre, Sloane Square (2%).




17.45 Theatres and Art Galleries are more limited in number in RBKC when compared to museums. The

main/larger venues include the Saatchi Gallery on King’s Road, the Royal Court Theatre at Sloane

Square, the Serpentine Gallery in Kensington Gardens. This venue type does not form a strong

visitor destination attraction in RBKC, with most located in Central London.

Summary

▪ It is evident from the data that leisure uses will remain a valued and relevant part of our multi-

dimensional town centres in the future. Despite ‘at home’ leisure experiences such as streaming

services growing in popularity, the pandemic has highlighted the need and desire for people to

leave their homes and socialise with friends and family across a range of leisure experiences.

Leisure spend growth forecasts demonstrate the importance of leisure venues and attractions, and

the continued trend to visit and use these facilities moving forwards.

▪ Cafes and evening eating out in restaurants are the two most popular leisure activities for those

living within the survey area. Whilst cafes do not draw people into the borough on their own, the

data demonstrates they perform a key role alongside retail through linked-trips. In every town

centre, aside from Earls Court, they are the second choice of activity after retail shopping,

highlighting their importance to the overall health and vitality of each town centre. There is an

identified need for additional cafes in Earls Court District Centre.

▪ Inflow to RBKC restaurants during the evening is limited, and there is identified leakage of trade to

Central London and to a lesser extent Westfield. Restaurant trade retention during the daytime is

higher due to the linked trip role with retail shops. The presence and performance of cafes and

restaurants throughout the RBKC town centres should be supported and protected given their

important role in contributing to longer dwell times and footfall. Town centre strategies should

continue to prioritise the role and dominance of retail in high streets, but acknowledge the

importance of associated leisure in the form of cafes and restaurants.

▪ All other leisure uses fall within sui generis or Use Class F and can be controlled in policy and

through development control decisions. The analysis concludes there is no need to plan for

additional cinema provision, and highlights the risk of additional competition – particularly in the

north of the borough and proximity to the Gate Picturehouse Notting Hill and Electric Cinema

Portobello Road.

▪ Nightclubs are the least used leisure activity in the borough and have faced numerous challenges in

recent years from evolving leisure habits, leading to their decline. There is no need to plan for

additional provision, and proposals will be market driven and considered against environmental

health and licensing. Museums and cultural arts venues are key to RBKC’s role on the world stage,

driving visitors and tourism at the international scale. These should continue to be protected,

promoted and invested in moving forwards.




18. Conclusions and Recommendations

18.1 Drawing on previous sections, including both the qualitative and quantitative analysis, this section

sets out the key conclusions and recommendations to take forward into the new Local Plan. We

consider the scope to accommodate new retail and leisure development in the borough, and set

out opportunities for a pro-active development plan policy framework to facilitate sustained long-

term strength in town centre performance.

18.2 The NPPF advises Councils to plan positively to meet needs arising for town centre uses. Policies

should protect and support the vitality and viability of town centres, consider frontages and

boundaries, and allocate a range of suitable sites to meet the scale and type of retail development

needed. As set out in the introduction, this evidence base includes two separate reports which

should be read in conjunction with each other, including the Future Town Centres Report, prepared

by Hatch. This section draws on the Hatch report where relevant to inform the overall conclusions

and recommendations, highlighting potential opportunities for town centre diversification and

their evolution beyond ‘places to shop’.

Conclusions

Policy Framework

18.3 The NPPF advocates a ‘town centres first’ approach, and requires planning policies to positively

promote competitive town centre environments and manage the growth of centres over the plan

period. The NPPF encourages LPA’s to recognise that town centres are the heart of their

communities and to pursue policies which protect their health and vitality.

18.4 The London Plan (2021) aims to build strong and inclusive communities, and emphasises that

development must also promote the crucial role of town centres as places that provide important

opportunities for face-to-face contact and social interaction during the daytime, evening and night-

time. The London Plan encourages the strengthening of the role of town centres, and

acknowledges that the adaptation and diversification of town centres should be supported in

response to changes in technology and consumer behaviour.

18.5 The London Plan also promotes higher density mixed-use or residential development in and on the

edge of town centres – where suitable; and emphasises that tourist infrastructure should be

directed to town centre locations. There are two London Plan Opportunity Areas in RBKC including

Kensal Canalside and Earls Court/West Kensington, both located within the Central/North Sub-Area

defined as part of this assessment. Three town centres within the RBKC hierarchy fall within

Strategic Areas for Regeneration, including Earls Court Road, King’s Road (West) and Portobello

Road.

18.6 The London Plan endorses the application of the sequential and impact test, but – contrary to the

NPPF – also requires an impact assessment on proposals for new, or extensions to existing, edge or

out-of-centre office uses (that are not in accordance with the Development Plan) – in addition to

retail and leisure uses (Policy SD7).




18.7 The Local Plan emphasises the key attributes and role of the wide variety of cultural, creative and

commercial uses significantly contributing to the capital’s role as a world city. Local plan policy

emphasises the town centres first approach to retail floorspace, and policies set out how the

Council will promote vital and viable town centres across the borough. Policy also aims to secure,

encourage and protect the diversity of uses within town centres. This is driven by the intention to

protect high proportions of Use Class A1 shop floorspace – a policy approach which is now out of

date in light of recent planning reform (see below).

18.8 There are four relevant RBKC SPD’s including the Shopfront Design Guidelines SPD (2011); the Earls

Court and West Kensington Opportunity Area SPD (2012); the Notting Hill SPD (2015); and the

Kensal Canalside Opportunity Area SPD (2021) (the largest brownfield site in RBKC).

Planning Reform

18.9 In force from 1st September 2020, new planning regulations revoked parts A and D of the existing

use classes order and introduced a new ‘commercial, business and service’ Use Class E,

incorporating former A1, A2 and A3 retail uses. Former A4 uses (drinking establishments, public

houses/wine bars) and A5 (hot food takeaway) and D2 cinemas, concert halls/live music venues,

bingo halls and dance halls are now defined as Sui Generis.

18.10 A new permitted development (PD) right to allow the change of use from any use, or mix of uses,

from the Commercial, Business and Service use class (Class E) to residential use (Class C3) came

into force on 1 August 2021. This applies to ‘unused’ buildings that have been vacant for 3 months,

are no larger than 1,500 sq m, and were previously used for at least 2 years for commercial,

business or service use as defined by Use Class E.

National Retail and Town Centre Trends

18.11 The role of town centres as a focus for retail remains relevant in today’s market to draw in

shoppers and footfall. Current thinking and research consistently reports, however, the need to

look beyond the role of retail in order to reinvent the high street, emphasising that the town centre

of the future must add an extra dimension to the retail experience. Covid-19 and new planning

legislation have and will continue to accelerate these trends.

18.12 Away from the high street, the composition and role of out-of-centre retail and retail parks will

almost certainly evolve towards more mixed uses spaces and places as owners seek opportunities

for higher density and mixed-use development – as supported in the London Plan.

18.13 It is apparent that these ‘extra layers/diversity of uses’ are in addition to the core retail role, but

should be closely connected to ensure a joined-up experience within a comprehensive town centre

strategy. Investment in a wider mix of land-uses and public realm/public space improvements will

benefit a consolidated retail offer, leading to improved town centre footfall activity. Short-term

investment projects alongside longer term investment for major projects can have far-reaching

positive benefits to the performance of a town centre.

18.14 Business rates are a challenge for most high street businesses. Retailers across the country argue

that business rates, which are based on the property rather than turnover, are disproportionately

high given the level of rent they pay and their profit margins. Online businesses tend to pay lower

business rates as they often have fewer premises and of those they do utilise, they tend to have

lower rateable values. Bricks and mortar retailers are also often locked into rents that increase




annually (upwards only leases) and provide no flexibility during difficult trading conditions, though

this is starting to change.

18.15 Many struggling town centres also face a range of other challenges, related to issues like

accessibility, ownership, digital connectivity, diversity, air pollution, affordability, housing and

business support. Austerity and the loss of social infrastructure has also been a major issue over

the last two decades. Town centres have not only lost retailers, but have seen public sector and

third sector services retreat, consolidate or disappear impacting both footfall and vitality. Many

councils have had to cut non-statutory services and have sold buildings that deliver social value on

high streets.

18.16 In London, for example, library spending fell by 12% between 2014 and 2019. Libraries are

important civic buildings that provide shared and inclusive spaces that are free to access.

Investment in infrastructure and the public realm has fallen alongside this which has arguably

made many high streets less social and accessible than in the past.

Sub-Regional Context

18.17 The key sub-regional change since the previous 2008 Study has been the opening of Westfield

White City in October 2008. The data reveals that Central London/West End remains the most

popular shopping destination for those living within the survey area, followed by King’s Road (East),

Westfield White City and Kensington High Street. The absence of Knightsbridge from survey area

market share data demonstrates the centres unique role as an International Centre and

consequent reliance on tourist and visitor trade from further afield.

18.18 Consistent with the 2008 Study, King’s Road and Kensington remain by far the most popular town

centres in the borough, whilst the ranking of ‘other’ town centres beyond the borough has changed

very little since the 2008 Study with Hammersmith, Brent Cross, Kilburn and Clapham Junction

remaining popular choices. Within the borough (Zones 1-3), King’s Road and Kensington have the

strongest market shares – higher than London West End and Westfield.

18.19 An analysis of the Central/North Sub-Area and South Sub-Area town centres concluded that

Kensington High Street and King’s Road have consolidated and increased their market share in their

respective survey zones (2 and 3) since 2008. It is also evident that:

▪ the South Sub-Area town centres combined have been robust, showing a significant market

share increase in Zone 3, and relatively stable market shares across the remainder of the

survey area; and

▪ the Central/North Sub-Area town centres combined have been more vulnerable, and aside

from a significant market share increase in Zone 2, have lost market share in most other

survey zones. Westfield White City has had a significant impact on Zone 1, diverting trade

predominantly from Kensington High Street which has seen a significant market share

reduction in this survey zone.

18.20 RBKC town centres have increased their level of trade retention within Zones 1-3, and the impact

of Westfield White City on shopping patterns within the borough have been considerably less than

initially estimated. RBKC town centres have, however, lost market share in survey zones located

outside of the borough (4-10) with pre-development forecasts of impact concluded to be broadly

correct. The outer survey zones (4/5/6/7/8/9/10) are all well connected to Westfield by




overground and underground rail routes. Losing market share in areas further afield is also likely to

be a consequence of the post-pandemic ‘shop local’ trend – partly benefitting the RBKC town

centres, but also demonstrating the need for diversity and multi-dimensional town centres to

continue to attract shoppers from further afield.

18.21 The opening of Battersea Power Station next year (2022) as a retail and leisure ‘destination’ has

potential impact implications for the borough, particularly King’s Road East and Knightsbridge. This

should be monitored moving forwards over the plan period and within evidence base updates and

annual monitoring reports where possible. Battersea Power Station is located in survey Zone 7,

just south of the river via Chelsea Bridge and connecting directly to Sloane Square nearby in Zone 3

– a 20 minute walk.

18.22 The objective over the plan period is to continue to enhance market share within the borough, and

to claw-back lost market share further afield from beyond the borough. This strategy should be

underpinned by promoting the diversification of town centres and a continued pro-active strategy

of investment, partnership working and a robust policy framework. This is discussed further

throughout this section within the recommendations.

Socio-Economic and Commercial Borough-Wide Trends

18.23 Hatch reports that over the last four years employment growth across RBKC has just exceeded

wider London averages (7% versus 6% respectively). Several of the boroughs town centres have

seen significantly greater proportional employment growth over the same period, with Brompton

Cross DC (+14%), Notting Hill Gate DC (+17%) and Kensington High Street MC (+43%) all exceeding

the borough and London averages.

18.24 Despite this, over half of RBKC’s centres have seen a fall in employment over the same period with

a further two experiencing static growth (0%). The four town centres that have seen the greatest

proportional decline are Portobello Road SDC (-11%), Earls Court DC (-17%), King’s Road West DC

(-22%) and Westbourne Grove SDC (-25%).

18.25 In terms of number of businesses, there are around 10,670 businesses in total across all of RBKC’s

town centres within a wide range of different uses. The largest in terms of the business number is

Kensington High Street MC (2,776) which accounts for 26% of all town centre businesses in the

borough. There are four town centres with noticeably fewer businesses than the other

comparators which are Earls Court DC (427), Kings Road West DC (360), Westbourne Grove SDC

(350) and Fulham Road West DC (311).

18.26 There is significant disparity in the business start-up rate in each town centre. The centre with the

highest number of start-up businesses in 2020 was Kensington High Street MC where there were

over three times as many new start-ups as the next highest in Portobello Road SDC (392 versus 119

respectively). At the other end of the spectrum, there were only 33 new start-ups in King’s Road

West DC, and Earl’s Court DC and Westbourne Grove SDC each saw only 40 new businesses form.

18.27 Since 2011 it is estimated that the overall population of RBKC has decreased by -2,122 people to

156,130 (-1.3%), which is the opposite of what has occurred across London as a whole which has

seen a population increase of +9.2%.

18.28 In terms of the town centres, just over half have experienced a population increase with South

Kensington DC seeing the greatest proportional increase (+5.6%) followed by Fulham Road West




DC (+4.9%) and King’s Road West DC (+4.2%). The town centre which had the largest overall

population in 2011, Portobello Road SDC, has experienced a -7% decrease falling behind King’s

Road East MC which in 2019 had the largest overall population. Other centres which have

experienced a significant decline include Westbourne Grove SDC (-7%), Knightsbridge IC (-7%) and

Earls Court DC (-3.4%).

18.29 Occupational profile data illustrates that all RBKC town centres have a greater proportion of

residents employed in higher value occupations when compared to London averages (50.3%).

Fulham Road West DC and South Kensington DC both have over 80% of residents employed in

these occupations which matches with the low level of deprivation within these town centres.

Earls Court DC and Portobello Road SDC have the lowest percentage of residents employed in

these occupations (67% respectively), while also having the highest levels of deprivation.

18.30 The Hatch analysis reports that most of RBKC has low levels of deprivation. Nine of the eleven

centres have no areas that are classified as being within the 20% most deprived in the country.

Fulham Road West DC, Kensington High Street MC, Knightsbridge IC and South Kensington DC also

do not have any areas classified as being within the 50% most deprived in the country.

18.31 There are some significant concentrations of deprivation to the north, however, which

encompasses Portobello Road SDC and parts of the Westbourne Grove SDC; 54% of areas within

the Portobello Road SDC and Earl’s Court DC are classified as being within the 20% most deprived

in the UK. When extended to the top 50% most deprived areas in the UK, 100% of Earl’s Court DC

is classified at this level or below, followed closely by Portobello Road (86%) and Brompton Cross

DC (58%).

Quantitative Need

18.32 The level of borough-wide need for additional comparison goods floorspace is set out in Table 17.1

by total borough and also in Table 17.2 by Central/North Sub-Area and South Sub-Area.

18.33 The figures demonstrate that there is currently no need for additional comparison goods

floorspace over the plan period. The reasons for this are consistent with identified national trends.

Expenditure growth has been hit in the short to medium term as a consequence of Covid-19 and

wider economic uncertainty, SFT is substantially greater through accelerated trends, and the rate

that existing floorspace is absorbing expenditure continues to remain strong (claiming a high

proportion of expenditure growth). More locally, population growth in the borough is substantially

more constrained than elsewhere in the sub-region and London.

18.34 The rate of expenditure growth is not therefore sufficient to substantially override the rate that

existing floorspace is absorbing spend over time, leading to an oversupply of floorspace over the

plan period. The over-supply is not currently substantial, so that doesn’t raise a concern in respect

of the need to lose space, but the strategy must protect existing provision to consolidate and

support healthy town centres over the plan period.

18.35 The absence of ‘need’ does not preclude quality redevelopment coming forward in town centres in

order to enhance and consolidate, and also to replace unwanted vacant space, but it does mean

there is no need to allocate sites on the edge of, or outside town centres to accommodate

additional comparison goods floorspace.




Table 17.1: RBKC Quantitative Need: Comparison Goods

2026

Sq m net

2031

Sq m net

2036

Sq m net

2041

Sq m net

2043

Sq m net

-413 -2,115 -2,265 -1,691 -1,095


Table 17.2: RBKC Quantitative Need: Comparison Goods, by Sub-Area

2026

Sq m net

2031

Sq m net

2036

Sq m net

2041

Sq m net

2043

Sq m net

Central/North Sub-

Area -327 -940 -1,058 -940 -776

South Sub-Area 15 -1,115 -1,113 -586 -108


18.36 The quantitative analysis does, however, identify a strong level of residual expenditure sufficient to

support additional convenience goods floorspace across the borough. The projections forecast

need for 9,611 sq m net by 2026, 9,335 sq m net by 2031, 9,154 sq m net by 2036, 9,036 sq m net

by 2041, falling marginally to 8,918 sq m net by 2043. It should be noted that projections beyond

2026 should be treated with caution given growing margins of error over longer time periods, and

an ongoing uncertain economy.

Table 17.3: RBKC Quantitative Need: Convenience Goods

2026

Sq m net

2031

Sq m net

2036

Sq m net

2041

Sq m net

2043

Sq m net

9,611

9,335 9,154 9,036

8,918


Table 17.4: RBKC Quantitative Need: Convenience Goods, by Sub-Area 2026

Sq m net

2031

Sq m net

2036

Sq m net

2041

Sq m net

2043

Sq m net

Central/North Sub-

Area

8,439

8,231 8,094 8,005 7,916

South Sub-Area 1,172 1104 1,061 1,031 1,002





18.37 The high level of convenience goods need is driven almost entirely by the three major food

superstores - Sainsbury’s, Cromwell Road; Sainsbury’s, Canal Way, Ladbroke Grove; and Tesco,

West Cromwell Road. They have high trading levels, exceeding average company expectations.

Sainsbury’s, Cromwell Road and Tesco, West Cromwell Road both obtain most of their turnover

from within the borough despite being located near the boundary. Sainsbury’s, Canal Way, is

located close to the borough boundary in the north, and has a significant inflow of trade from

Zones 4 and 5, from outside the borough.

18.38 The strong performance of these three foodstores is leading to surplus residual expenditure that

could support additional convenience goods floorspace in the borough.

18.39 Our qualitative analysis of the three stores identifies strong performing businesses, but ones that

potentially have capacity to absorb a proportion of identified need within the existing physical

formats; i.e. observed available car parking and short check-out queues. An over-trading store in

quantitative terms does not necessarily lead to the need for additional foodstores when qualitative

factors are also taken into consideration. Nevertheless, the need identified is sufficiently strong to

advise the allocation of new sites to meet the need arising. This should be directed in the first

instance to the network of town centres and the two major growth/regeneration areas in the

borough – Earl’s Court and Kensal Canalside.

Leisure Assessment / Need

18.40 It is evident from the data that leisure uses will remain a valued and relevant part of our multi-

dimensional town centres in the future. Despite ‘at home’ leisure experiences such as streaming

services growing in popularity, the pandemic has highlighted the need and desire for people to

leave their homes and socialise with friends and family across a range of leisure experiences.

Leisure spend growth forecasts demonstrate the importance of leisure venues and attractions, and

the continued trend to visit and use these facilities moving forwards.

18.41 Cafes and evening eating out in restaurants are the two most popular leisure activities for those

living within the survey area. Whilst cafes do not draw people into the borough on their own, the

data demonstrates they perform a key role alongside retail through linked-trips. In every town

centre, aside from Earls Court, they are the second choice of activity after retail shopping,

highlighting their importance to the overall health and vitality of each town centre. There is an

identified need for additional cafes in Earls Court District Centre.

18.42 Inflow to RBKC restaurants (from beyond the borough boundary) during the evening is limited, and

there is identified leakage of trade to Central London and to a lesser extent Westfield. Restaurant

trade retention during the daytime is higher due to the linked trip role with retail shops. The

presence and performance of cafes and restaurants throughout the RBKC town centres should be

supported and protected given their important role in contributing to longer dwell times and

footfall. Town centre strategies should continue to prioritise the role and dominance of retail in

high streets, but acknowledge the importance of associated leisure in the form of cafes and

restaurants.

18.43 All other leisure uses fall within sui generis or Use Class F and can be controlled in policy and

through development control decisions. The analysis concludes there is no need to plan for

additional cinema provision, and highlights the risk of additional competition – particularly in the




north of the borough and proximity to the Gate Picturehouse Notting Hill and Electric Cinema

Portobello Road.

18.44 Nightclubs are the least used leisure activity in the borough and have faced numerous challenges in

recent years from evolving leisure habits, leading to their decline. There is no need to plan for

additional provision, and proposals will be market driven and considered against environmental

health and licensing. Museums and cultural arts venues are key to RBKC’s role on the world stage,

driving visitors and tourism at the international scale. These should continue to be protected,

promoted and invested in moving forwards.

Recommendations

18.45 In this section, we set out a series of Borough-wide / strategic objectives which the Council may

wish to take forward in the development of policies for its new Local Plan and other future

development plan documents. These are structured around the following key topics:

▪ Borough-wide planning policy recommendations

▪ Accommodating growth

▪ Hierarchy of centres

▪ Town centre boundaries and frontages

▪ Review of existing development management policies

▪ Permitted development and the use of Article 4 Directions

18.46 The accompanying Future Town Centres Report (Hatch) identifies a range of soft, hard and

partnership interventions that could be taken forward into new and up-to-date town centre

strategies, and should be considered alongside planning and policy recommendations set out

below.

Borough-wide Planning Policy Recommendations

RBKC1: Policy and town centre strategies should aim to retain the core retail functions of the

International, Major and District Centres. In the context of the new Use Class E, the Council should

continue to monitor and review regularly the land use composition throughout each town centre.

To ensure an in-depth understanding of role and composition, the updates should go beyond Use

Class E and monitor and record by land use category including comparison goods, convenience

goods, retail service, leisure service, financial and professional uses and vacant units. Drawing on

Experian Goad definitions, the audits should provide a further finer-grained break-down within

each land use category at points in time; including for example cafes, restaurants, fast food

restaurant and public houses within the leisure services category.

This should include maintaining and regularly reviewing shopping frontages and primary shopping

areas and other key town centre uses, venues or facilities in each town centre which contribute to

footfall and overall character/identity. This approach will identify the extent and effectiveness of

each RBCK town centre to evolve and diversify in response to wider town centre trends. Later in




this section, we review primary shopping area and frontage policies, suggesting amendments which

the Council may wish to consider.

RBKC2: The Council should seek to diversify the role of its town centres. The Council should look

to accommodate an increasing range of uses within the network of town centres, including

community space and facilities and new types of housing, to help improve the sustainability of

town centres in the long term. Policy should discourage the introduction of such uses at the

expense of retail frontage within the defined Primary Shopping Areas, and any applications should

be considered on a case by case basis, underpinned by a robust retail impact assessment.

The consistency of retail frontages should be retained and protected through policy. Sites could

instead include upper floors or well-connected edge-of-centre, for example. There may be

exceptional beneficial circumstances of locating other uses within the primary shopping area retail

frontage, if that use brings particular linked trip, footfall and vibrancy benefits to the town centre.

RBKC3: The Council should provide policy guidance on the upper floors of retail and town centre

shop units, encouraging residential space in vacant and under-used spaces. An Article 4 Direction

(discussed later in this section) should encompass upper floors thereby enabling the Council to

manage conversion to residential where appropriate whilst ensuring the protection of upper floors

for storage areas associated with the viability of ground floor retail/leisure businesses. Within the

framework of an Article 4 Direction, planning applications for change of use from Use Class E

commercial to residential should be accompanied with details of storage space and associated

viability of the retail unit at ground floor level.

RBKC4: The Council should support the delivery of redeveloped or refurbished space for

consolidation of the retail and leisure offer and wider diversification of town centre uses. The

Council should work with developers/landlords to bring forward sites and spaces that could be

used to intensify the economic function of town centres. This includes a wide range of space that

can be used to support the future economic evolution of RBCK’s town centres, including retail and

leisure; community, religious, health and education; and more general employment space and

workspace (including SME workspaces, artists spaces and maker spaces). Town centre strategies

should encourage diversification alongside support for ground floor shop frontages to underpin and

future proof the vitality and viability of town centres.

RBKC5: The identification of sites to meet the retail and commercial leisure floorspace ‘need’

should be subject to the sequential test. In accordance with the approach set out in the NPPF

(paragraphs 87-88), floorspace should be directed towards the Council’s network of International,

Major and District centres in the first instance, followed by proposed town centre/place-making

site allocations at Kensal Canalside and Earls Court, and then appropriate and well-connected edge-

of-centre sites.

Based on the evidence presented, there is no requirement to allocate sites outside of the network

of town centres for comparison or leisure floorspace, but the Council should allocate sites to meet

forecast convenience goods need over the plan period. This should be directed to the network of

town centres and the two major Opportunity Areas at Kensal Canalside and Earls Court in the first

instance. Any surplus need beyond this will be accommodated by vacant town centre floorspace

and the existing network of town centre and out-of-centre foodstores. These foodstores have




been identified as economically over-trading, but are not ‘over-capacity’ in qualitative terms,

demonstrating the ability to absorb additional shoppers and spend.

RBKC6: The Council should explore options for the intensification of out-of-centre retail sites

including large format supermarkets. Reflecting the requirements of London Plan Policy SD7, Local

Plan policy, through the new Local Plan, should recognise the potential of these locations to deliver

housing intensification through redevelopment, ensuring these locations become more sustainable

in transport terms. The consideration of opportunity to realise the full potential of such sites

should be encouraged in policy.

The importance of the retail floorspace and its contribution to meeting shopping needs should be

fully considered as part of any redevelopment proposals. Given the need for convenience goods

floorspace, proposals which involve the redevelopment of sites containing existing supermarkets

should ensure that any site redevelopment incorporates replacement convenience goods

floorspace of a comparable size (in terms of net sales area) to that which is being lost. This is to

ensure the needs of existing and future residents are met.

RBKC7: Policy should endorse the sequential and impact test. Planning applications for the

development of retail, commercial leisure and other ‘main town centre uses’ (as defined by the

NPPF) which are not within a defined centre will need to demonstrate compliance with the

sequential and impact ‘tests’ set out at paragraphs 87-91 of the NPPF (2021).

Local authorities should be proactive in presenting sites to developers as potential town centre

development opportunities, which could include vacant units. The Council should work closely and

pro-actively with applicants to identify sequentially preferable sites which should be considered

through the sequential test. Where an application fails to satisfy the sequential test or is likely to

have significant adverse impact on one or more of the considerations in paragraph 90, it should be

refused.

RBKC8: The quantitative retail and commercial leisure needs identified in this study should be

subject to regular review throughout the Council’s Local Plan period. We advise that quantitative

forecasts beyond 2026 are considered indicative because key inputs into the quantitative need

assessment such as population, rates of online shopping and expenditure growth will invariably

change. Expenditure forecasts are particularly susceptible to change as the implications of Brexit

and the Covid-19 pandemic are realised over time. Alongside this, patterns of shopping will

continue to evolve, both as technologies change, and residents of the Borough respond to new

retail and leisure developments planned both inside outside the Borough, particularly at Battersea

Power Station (2022).

RBKC9: In response to London Plan Policy HC6, the Council should consider a Night-Time Economy

Strategy for the Borough. The night-time economy is becoming increasingly important to London’s

economy, with continued momentum to promote London as a 24-hour global city. However, it is

recognised that 24-hour activities are not suitable for every part of London, and boroughs should

balance the needs of local residents in all parts of London with the economic benefits of promoting

a night-time economy.

The nature of many night time economy uses (e.g. late night bars, clubs, and associated uses such

as takeaways and late night fast-food outlets) means that it is particularly important for a joined-up

approach to the development of a strategy, including planning, licencing, culture, regeneration,




cleansing services and community safety. The borough is advised to work closely with stakeholders

such as neighbouring boroughs, the police, local businesses, patrons, workers and residents.

Applications for new Night Time Economy Uses (6pm-6am operational) should be directed to the

larger town centres of Knightsbridge, Kensington High Street, King’s Road (East) and South

Kensington in the first instance – in accordance with their current roles and London Plan

hierarchy/strategic areas of such activity. Applications for development elsewhere in the Borough

should be considered on individual merits, with particular consideration to amenity and safety.

Accommodating Future Growth

18.47 A review of potential development opportunity sites in RBKC has been undertaken throughout this

assessment. As concluded above, there is no need for additional comparison floorspace in the

borough over the plan period, but any such development within the existing network of town

centres should be supported and encouraged within the policy framework. This might be a

redevelopment of existing space – as currently evidenced throughout many of the RBKC town

centres – and lead to positive investment and an enhanced and consolidated retail and leisure

offer.

18.48 Town centre redevelopment proposals to include ground floor retail/leisure within the Primary

Shopping Area should be encouraged subject to the wider policy framework. There are a number

of good examples of high street frontage redevelopment sites currently under construction or

recently completed, which include retail at ground floor and residential/offices on the upper floors.

These are set out in the health check chapters and include K1 Knightsbridge, The Kensington

Building Kensington High Street, and 101-106 and 165-181 Kensington High Street.

RBKC10: There is no need to allocate sites outside town centres for comparison or leisure

floorspace over the plan period. This should be kept under review, particularly beyond the first 5

year period to 2026.

18.49 There is, however, an identified need for additional convenience goods floorspace over the plan

period, and this should be directed to the main town centres and the Earls Court/West Kensington

and Kensal Canalside Opportunity Areas in the first instance. Given the growth and place-making

policy aspirations, equal weight should be given to the town centres and these two major

Opportunity Areas when planning for additional convenience goods floorspace. Elsewhere in the

borough, any proposals for new convenience goods floorspace that meets the key policy tests and

supports stronger and inclusive communities, should be supported. Smaller scale foodstores are

recommended to ensure sustainable shopping patterns across the borough.

RBKC11: Set out preferred locations and sites to meet the convenience goods need arising focusing

on the network of town centres and Opportunity Areas in the first instance.

18.50 Development Opportunity Sites currently allocated in the RBKC development plan and RBKC

supplement planning documents are as follows:

▪ Strategic Site Allocation CA4 – Earls Court Exhibition Site, Opportunity Area;

▪ Strategic Site Allocation CA5 – South Kensington District Centre;

▪ Strategic Site Allocation CA9 – Chelsea Farmers Market, King’s Road (East) Major Centre;

▪ Site Opportunity 1, Notting Hill SPD – Newcombe House, Notting Hill District Centre;




▪ Site Opportunity 2, Notting Hill SPD – Astley House, Notting Hill District Centre;

▪ Site Opportunity 3, Notting Hill SPD – The Gate Cinema Block, Notting Hill District Centre;

▪ Site Opportunity 4, Notting Hill SPD – West Block, Notting Hill District Centre.

18.51 Alongside Knightsbridge, Kensington High Street and King’s Road (East), Notting Hill Gate District

Centre has the greatest opportunity for commercial growth and development when considering

the network of town centres.

18.52 Kensal Canalside and Earls Court/West Kensington are the two major Opportunity Areas in RBKC

with policy supporting the creation of mixed-use sustainable development and supporting place-

making facilities and services. Despite there being no need for additional comparison floorspace

based on existing market shares and the current status quo, ancillary retail and leisure uses should

be supported in accordance with the London Plan ‘good growth’ concept. This will ensure socially

and economically inclusive growth, creating stronger communities and increasing active

participation.

RBKC12: Allocate strategic town and edge-of-centre sites for mixed-use and retail/leisure

development, and also the Kensal Canalside and Earls Court/West Kensington Opportunity Areas to

meet the forecast need for convenience goods.

18.53 The scale of retail and leisure floorspace within these two regeneration areas should be

appropriate to the scale of residential and commercial development on-site, meeting needs arising

rather than creating ‘destination’ retailing. Proposals for development must demonstrate that the

retail and leisure floorspace is necessary to support the wider development and ancillary to the

wider mix of uses and not rely on inflow or the diversion of trade from elsewhere – including

nearby town centres. A larger scale of comparison goods or leisure floorspace is not supported

within this evidence base.

RBKC13: Ensure scale of new development in Opportunity Areas are appropriate to the

communities they are intended to serve in accordance with the London Plan Good Growth

concept.

Hierarchy of Town Centres

18.54 The current hierarchy of town centres in the Borough, as set out in the Local Plan, is summarised

below. Knightsbridge and Westbourne Grove overlap with Westminster City Council, and the

respective health checks have focused of those areas falling within RBKC:

▪ International Centre: Knightsbridge;

▪ Major Centres: King’s Road (East) and Kensington High Street;

▪ District Centres: South Kensington, King’s Road (West), Notting Hill Gate, Fulham

Road (West), Brompton Cross and Earl’s Court Road;

▪ Special District Centres: Portobello Road and Westbourne Grove.

18.55 Based on our assessment, we do not consider there to be a policy case for any change to the

Borough’s hierarchy of town centres at the present time. They are all performing a role and

function in line with Development Plan definitions and aspirations. To inform this appraisal, the in-

depth health check analysis and quantitative assessment has considered the London Plan policy




role, scale, number of operators, retailer representation and status of multiple retailers, evening

economy and cultural attractions, turnover and sales density, and sub-regional / national / and

international role.

18.56 There is also no evidence to suggest that any of the centres should be de-designated from the

Borough’s hierarchy of centres. The town centre hierarchy is appropriate and relevant for the new

Local Plan and town centre strategies should be developed according to their role.

RBCK14: Retain the existing hierarchy of town centres.

Town Centre Boundaries and Frontages

18.57 The NPPF directs local planning authorities to define the extent of town centres and primary

shopping areas, and make clear the range of uses permitted in such locations, as part of a

positive strategy for the future of each centre.

18.58 The Planning Practice Guidance (PPG) emphasises that whilst the NPPF has removed reference to

primary and secondary shopping ‘frontages’, authorities may, where appropriate, wish to define

primary and secondary retail frontages where their use can be justified in supporting the vitality

and viability of particular centres. These frontage allocations would, combined, form the Primary

Shopping Areas.

18.59 We draw attention to the following definitions set out at Annex 2 of the NPPF (2021), which now

excludes reference to primary and secondary shopping frontages:

Town centre – Area defined on the local authority’s policies map, including the primary shopping area and areas predominantly occupied by main town centre uses within or adjacent to the primary shopping area. References to town centres or centres apply to city centres, town centres, district centres and local centres but exclude small parades of shops of purely neighbourhood significance.

Primary Shopping Area – ‘Defined area where retail development is concentrated’. (The Primary Shopping Area is the relevant boundary when considering the retail sequential site and impact assessment. Edge and out-of-centre is measured from the boundary of the Primary Shopping Area).

Edge of centre: For retail purposes, a location that is well connected to, and up to 300 metres from, the primary shopping area. [For all other main town centre uses, a location within 300 metres of a town centre boundary. For office development, this includes locations outside the town centre but within 500 metres of a public transport interchange. In determining whether a site falls within the definition of edge of centre, account should be taken of local circumstances.]

18.60 Previous versions of the NPPF provided definitions of primary and secondary shopping frontages –

‘Primary frontages are likely to include a high proportion of retail uses which may include food,

drinks, clothing and household goods. Secondary frontages provide greater opportunities for a

diversity of uses such as restaurants, cinemas and businesses.’ As noted above, the PPG confirms

that local authorities may continue to use these frontage allocations if it is justified in supporting

the vitality and viability of particular centres. Previous versions of the NPPF confirm that Primary

and Secondary Shopping Frontages (combined) form a Primary Shopping Area.




18.61 The Council’s current Policies Map allocates defined town centre boundaries for each of the

International, Major, District and Special District Centres. Chapter 30 of the Local Plan includes

maps illustrating Primary and Secondary Shopping Frontages, confirming the location and

boundary of each respective Primary Shopping Area. These reflect the defined town centre

boundaries on the proposals map. The proposals map or town centre inset maps should clearly

state ‘Primary Shopping Area’ in addition to ‘town centre boundary’ in order to ensure clarity for

the purposes of the retail sequential site and impact assessments. This is particularly the case for

‘other’ town centre uses.

RBKC15: Clarify and clearly illustrate the allocation and definition of Primary Shopping Areas and

Town Centre Boundaries – use both definitions if the boundary is the same. It is recommended

that policy wording is consistent with the NPPF to ensure clarity when agreeing the scope of an

impact and sequential site assessment for all town centre uses which have different distance

thresholds for testing.

18.62 In respect of each of the individual town centres, we make the following observations for town

centre boundary changes which the Council may wish to consider:

▪ Kensington High Street – incorporate the Design Museum into the town centre boundary as

a key town centre use and contributor to town centre footfall and vitality;

▪ Earls Court Road – extend to include units on south side of Earls Court Gardens,

and extend to include south side of Kenway Road to the junction with Cromwell

Road – both offering concentrations of retail frontage;

▪ Portobello Road – extend to include Portobello Green Arcade and Westway

Leisure Centre in the north of the town centre;

▪ Brompton Cross – extend to include Chelsea Cloisters and Sainsbury’s Local on

Sloane Avenue;

▪ South Kensington – extend to include north side of Harrington Road, including the

library, hotel, bank and social club.

RBKC16: Review and consider amending town centre boundaries in the context of the

recommendations above.

18.63 Chapter 30 of the Local Plan illustrates Primary Shopping Frontages and Secondary Shopping

Frontages using a series of town centre inset maps. We recommend these are retained to control

land uses as far as is possible within the newly revised Use Classes Order.

RBKC17: Retain existing Primary and Secondary Shopping Frontages.

Review of Existing Development Management Policies

18.64 The Council’s existing approach to protect and enhance the vitality and viability of town centres is

set out in Policies CF1, CF2, CF3 and CF4, detailed in Section 2 of this report.

18.65 Policy CF1 seeks to support the town centres first approach. The policy seeks to locate new shop

floorspace in town centres whilst also supporting new floorspace in areas of retail deficiency. This

approach should be endorsed in the new Local Plan, and the Council could consider further

borough wide analysis to set this within the 15 minute neighbourhoods concept. Part D of Policy




CF1 – supporting the establishment of new centres in the two key Opportunity Areas – remains

relevant, and, based on the evidence presented, policy should retain the scale and day-to-day

needs requirements as set out in the current policy.

18.66 Land uses within Policy CF1 should be broadened to apply to the ‘Location of New Town Centre

Uses’, to ensure all such applications are compliant with the key policy tests. The NPPF Glossary

defines the full list of ‘Main Town Centre Uses’ as follows:

Main town centre uses: Retail development (including warehouse clubs and factory outlet centres); leisure, entertainment and more intensive sport and recreation uses (including cinemas, restaurants, drive-through restaurants, bars and pubs, nightclubs, casinos, health and fitness centres, indoor bowling centres and bingo halls); offices; and arts, culture and tourism development (including theatres, museums, galleries and concert halls, hotels and conference facilities).

18.67 Policy CF1 should be updated to ensure the correct policy tests (sequential and impact) are

correctly applied to the different town centre uses. Policy SD7 of the London Plan, for example,

now requires office proposals to comply with the impact test, and we recommend this is enforced

within a revised Policy CF1.




18.68 Policy CF1 should confirm and enforce a retail impact threshold, ensuring that edge and out-of-

centre retail development proposals are required to undertake a full and detailed retail impact

assessment for schemes at or above 400 sq m gross.

18.69 Policy CF2 directs new retail development into town centres in order to reinforce and enhance

their vitality and viability, and prevents the amalgamation of units. Within the new Use Class E

category it is important to reinforce the continued importance of retail and leisure uses to the

overall vitality and viability of town centres. This should continue to underpin town centre

strategies and the roles within the borough-wide town centre and retail hierarchy.

18.70 Policy CF2 should be broadened to include leisure uses. New retail and leisure development should

continue to be encouraged across the network of town centres as a key driver of footfall. New

retail, leisure and mixed use town centre development can be controlled through conditions to

ensure ground floor occupancy is restricted to specific land uses within the retail and leisure

categories.

18.71 Policy CF3, Diversity of Uses within Town Centres, is now out-of-date in the context of planning

reform and the introduction of Use Class E. The overall objective to protect land uses and

encourage diversity remains relevant, but the specific approach and wording will require

amendment in the new Local Plan.

18.72 Part C protects shop uses at ground floor level. This policy position should be enforced in the new

Local Plan, ensuring new and redevelopment of space includes ground floor retail / leisure

floorspace within the retail frontage. New planning permissions should be conditioned accordingly

by land use category/description, not general Use Class.




18.73 We recommend the Council retain the Primary Shopping Area, Primary Shopping Frontage and

Secondary Shopping Frontage as existing and referenced in Policy CF3. Whilst it is not possible to

enforce a specific land use within Use Class E, town centre strategies should make clear that retail

and leisure uses are encouraged and prioritised at ground floor level within Primary and Secondary

Shopping Frontages. Those uses should remain central to a town centre strategy and function of a

Primary Shopping Area. The Council should work closely with developers and landlords to retain

these land uses in ground floor frontages.

18.74 In terms of ‘change of use’, policy should prevent non Use Class E within the Primary Shopping

Frontage and prevent any change of use to alternative uses, including those in sui generis use. Use

Class E includes:

▪ Use Class E Shops (former A1)

▪ Provision of financial and professional services (former A2)

▪ Sale of food and drink consumption on premises, ‘cafes and restaurants’ (former A3)




▪ Indoor sport, recreation, fitness (gyms) (former D2)

▪ Provision of medical or health services (former D1)

▪ Creche, day nursery or day centre (former D1)

▪ Offices, research and development, light industrial (former B1a, b and c)

18.75 Sui Generis uses that should be restricted in a Primary Shopping Frontage and considered on a case

by case basis include:

▪ Amusement arcades and casinos;

▪ Nightclubs;

▪ Betting offices/shops;

▪ Pay day loan shops;

▪ Public houses, wine bars or drinking establishments;

▪ Hot food take-aways.

18.76 Policy should prevent non Use Class E within the Secondary Shopping Frontage, but note that the

introduction of former Use Class A4 (public houses, wine bars or drinking establishments) might be

appropriate. Change of use to these former Use Class A4 (drinking establishments) should be

considered on a case by case basis and on the merits of each respective planning application. This

land use should form part of a wider Evening Economy Strategy - an over proliferation should be

avoided and other issues considered, such as noise and safety (see Recommendation RBKC9

above).

18.77 Part C of Policy CF3 should be widened to protect shop uses above or below ground floor level

within town centres unless it is successfully demonstrated that their loss will not adversely impact

required operational storage space, leading to an unviable or unlettable shop unit. It is crucial that

retail and leisure businesses can retain and secure the necessary storage areas to make their

businesses viable.

18.78 Policy CF3 should support flexibility and the temporary or ‘meanwhile’ uses of vacant properties.

The term ‘meanwhile use’ refers to the short-term use of temporarily empty buildings, including

shops until they can be brought back into commercial use. Such innovative action provides an

opportunity to help keep a town centre vibrant, whilst the landlord is able to continue to look for a

new commercial occupant for the space during the meanwhile use. Meanwhile uses are generally

for the benefit of the local community, for example; meeting spaces, informal training

and learning spaces, temporary rehearsal spaces, pop-up shops and exhibitions, and so on. They

can offer a breeding ground for innovative ideas and empower the local community, lasting just a

few days or several years. Policy should encourage this mechanism within the RBKC town centres.

18.79 The NPPF encourages local authorities to retain and enhance existing markets; and in this context

Policy CS4 should be retained. The policy wording remains relevant and should be retained. The

health checks and town centre analysis demonstrates the continued importance of markets to the

overall vitality and viability of town centres, attracting local customers through to international

visitors. RBKC have a number of famous and well known markets that continue to attract visitors

into the borough, and these should be supported and protected.


https://www.designingbuildings.co.uk/wiki/Meanwhile_use

https://www.designingbuildings.co.uk/wiki/Building

https://www.designingbuildings.co.uk/wiki/Shop

https://www.designingbuildings.co.uk/wiki/Landlord

https://www.designingbuildings.co.uk/wiki/Occupant

https://www.designingbuildings.co.uk/wiki/Space



https://www.designingbuildings.co.uk/wiki/Benefit

https://www.designingbuildings.co.uk/wiki/Local_community


https://www.designingbuildings.co.uk/wiki/Learning



https://www.designingbuildings.co.uk/wiki/Shop

https://www.designingbuildings.co.uk/wiki/Ground

https://www.designingbuildings.co.uk/wiki/Innovative

https://www.designingbuildings.co.uk/wiki/Local_community



Permitted Development and the Use of Article 4 Directions

18.80 Retail continues to remain a vitally important footfall driver in centres, and continues to be the

main reason that people are visiting the centres. A retail offer which mixes representation from

national multiple retailers which act as ‘anchors’ and specialist independents which provide

diversity is important to attracting footfall, and we expect this to continue over the course of the

Council’s new Local Plan period.

18.81 At the national level, whilst town centres are undoubtedly going through a period of transition,

successful centres continue to be supported by retail. The continued importance of retailing in

underpinning the vitality and viability of the Borough’s network of centres is also borne out by the

findings of the household telephone survey undertaken in support of the study. In total, RBKC’s

network of international, major and district centres attract £1.34 billion of comparison goods retail

expenditure into the borough – excluding any gross value. These figures confirm the vital role

which retail plays in supporting the overall health of the Borough’s town centres.

18.82 If there was a significant shift away from ‘shop’ retail in RBKC’s main town centres, the reasons for

visiting the centre would fall and potentially erode footfall, dwell time, frequency of visit, and

turnover, with potential implications for the wider vitality and viability of centres. Ground floor

retail and shops in town centres should therefore be protected.

Permitted Development Rights

18.83 A new permitted development (PD) right to allow the change of use from any use, or mix of uses,

from the Commercial, Business and Service use class (Class E) to residential use (Class C3) came

into force on 1 August 2021. In town centres, retail shops can change use to residential use

without the need for planning permission. This applies to ‘unused’ buildings that have been vacant

for 3 months, are not larger than 1,500 sq m, and were previously used for at least 2 years for

commercial, business or service use. This new permitted development could dilute retail frontages

and erode the overall vitality and viability of a town centre.

Article 4 Directions

18.84 Councils have the power to remove national permitted development rights under what is known as

an ‘Article 4 Direction’. Paragraph 53 of the NPPF confirms that, when related to change from non-

residential commercial use (Use Class E) to residential use (Use Class C3), the use of an Article 4

Direction should be limited to situations where it is necessary to avoid wholly unacceptable

adverse impacts; including the loss of the essential core of a primary shopping area which would

seriously undermine its vitality and viability.




18.85 Whilst this study has demonstrated that the Borough’s network of centres are currently healthy,

there is a need to ensure they remain strong centres which meet a full range of local residents’

day-to-day shopping, and, in the case of the higher order town centres, more specialist shopping.

The vitality and viability of centres is dependent on providing a critical mass of quality, footfall-

generating retail and leisure uses, and the application of appropriate Article 4 directions will ensure

that the Borough’s network of centres continue to function as healthy centres over the new Plan

period.

RBKC18: Introduce an Article 4 Direction across all RBKC town centres to prevent permitted change

of use from Use Class E to Use Class C3 (dwelling-house), to protect the thriving core of the high

street.

Monitoring

18.86 As advised in the NPPF, it is recommended that the Council should update its retail evidence base

at frequent intervals throughout the Local Plan period to 2043, as new information on the

economy, population growth, expenditure growth and ‘special forms of trading’ becomes available.

The need to update should be reviewed every 5 years and implemented if needed at that point

(NPPF, para.33). Updates to retail capacity forecasts will also be required once new floorspace

comes forward at Battersea Power Station, in order to assess the implications that this

development might have on the network of town centres.


Appendix 1 Convenience Goods Need Forecasts

Kensington & Chelsea Retail and Leisure Needs Assessment 2021Convenience Goods Need Forecasts

Table 1: Survey Area Postcode Composition

Zone Postcode Sectors

Zone 1 NW10 5; W10 5/6; W11 1/2/4

Zone 2 SW5 0/9; SW7 4/5; W2 4; W8 4/5/6/7; W11 3; W14 8

Zone 3 SW7 2/3; SW10 0; SW3 1/2/3/4/5/6; SW10 9; SW1W 8; SW1X 0/9

Zone 4 NW2 4/5/6; NW6 7; NW10 1/2/3/9

Zone 5 NW6 5/6; W2 5/6; W9 1/2/3; W10 4

Zone 6SW7 1; SW1A 1; SW1E 5/6; SW1H 0/9; SW1P 1/2/4; SW1V 1/2/3/4/0; SW1W 9; SW1X 7/8; W2

2/3; W1H 5/7; W1J 6/7/8; W1K 1/2/6/7; W1S 4

Zone 7 SW8 3/4/5; SW18 1/2; SW11 1/2/3/4/5; SW15 2

Zone 8 SW6 1/2/3/4/5/6/7

Zone 9 W6 0/7/8/9; W12 8/9; W14 0/9

Zone 10 NW10 4/6/8; W3 7; W12 0/7


Table 2: Survey Area Population Forecasts

Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 Zone 10

2021 64,305 73,245 61,288 85,243 93,533 80,910 117,322 70,617 83,784 74,464

2026 64,383 73,236 61,600 86,465 97,123 84,210 120,267 72,497 85,734 75,680

2031 64,757 73,322 61,841 87,407 99,835 86,426 122,000 73,643 87,324 76,921

2036 65,417 73,722 62,282 88,473 102,548 88,319 124,455 74,986 88,717 78,277

2041 65,934 73,965 62,623 89,477 105,261 90,374 126,549 76,231 90,209 79,576

2043 66,141 74,062 62,759 89,879 106,346 91,195 127,387 76,728 90,805 80,095

Total 390,937 441,552 372,393 526,944 604,645 521,434 737,980 444,702 526,573 465,012

Change 2021-2026 78 -9 312 1,222 3,590 3,300 2,945 1,880 1,950 1,216

Change 2026-2031 374 86 241 942 2,712 2,216 1,733 1,146 1,590 1,241

Change 2031-2036 660 400 441 1,066 2,713 1,893 2,455 1,343 1,393 1,356

Change 2036-2041 517 243 341 1,004 2,713 2,055 2,094 1,245 1,492 1,299

TOTAL Change 2021-2043 1,836 817 1,471 4,636 12,813 10,285 10,065 6,111 7,021 5,631


Table 3: Survey Area per Capita Expenditure Forecasts

Expenditure per

Capita (£)SFT (%) SFT (£)

Expenditure per

capita

less SFT

2021 2,637 6.3% 166 2,470

2026 2,642 5.7% 151 2,491

2031 2,652 6.2% 164 2,488

2036 2,666 6.8% 181 2,484

2041 2,679 7.1% 190 2,489

2043 2,684 7.4% 199 2,486

Expenditure growth rates: 2020: 8.4%; 2021: -6.2%; 2022: 0.2%; 2023-2027: 0.0%; 2028-2040: 0.1%

Source: Experian E-Marketer. Expenditure growth rates and allowance for SFT are sourced from Experian Retail Planner 18 (October 2020). Price Base: 2019


Table 4 - Survey Area Convenience Goods Expenditure

Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 Zone 10 Total

(£m) (£m) (£m) (£m) (£m) (£m) (£m) (£m) (£m) (£m) (£m)

2021 158.9 180.9 151.4 210.6 231.1 199.9 289.8 174.5 207.0 184.0 1,988.0

2026 160.4 182.4 153.5 215.4 242.0 209.8 299.6 180.6 213.6 188.5 2,045.8

2031 161.1 182.4 153.9 217.5 248.4 215.0 303.5 183.2 217.3 191.4 2,073.6

2036 162.5 183.2 154.7 219.8 254.8 219.4 309.2 186.3 220.4 194.5 2,104.8

2041 164.1 184.1 155.9 222.7 262.0 224.9 315.0 189.7 224.5 198.0 2,140.9

2043 164.4 184.1 156.0 223.4 264.3 226.7 316.7 190.7 225.7 199.1 2,151.2

Change 2021-43 (£m) 5.5 3.2 4.6 12.8 33.3 26.8 26.8 16.3 18.7 15.1 163.2

Change 2021-2043 (%) 3.5 1.7 3.0 6.1 14.4 13.4 9.3 9.3 9.1 8.2 8.2

Source: Tables 2 and 3


Table 5 - Convenience Goods Allocation - % Market Share (2021)

Survey

Location

Zone

Zone 1

%

Zone 2

%

Zone 3

%

Zone 4

%

Zone 5

%

Zone 6

%

Zone 7

%

Zone 8

%

Zone 9

%

Zone 10

%

Destinations for Convenience Goods in Kensington & Chelsea Borough

South Sub-Area (See Note A)

Major Centres

3 M&S, King's Road (East) Major Centre 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.5% 0.3% 0.8% 0.0%

3 Waitrose, King's Road (East) Major Centre 0.0% 0.0% 27.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 2.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%

3 Local Shops, King's Road (East) Major Centre 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

District Centres

3 Londis, King's Road (West) District Centre 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

3 M&S Simply Food, Fulham Road (West) District Centre 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

3 Sainsbury's Local, Fulham Road (West) District Centre 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%

3 Tesco Express, Fulham Road (West) District Centre 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 2.6% 0.7% 0.0%

3 Local Shops, Fulham Road (West) District Centre 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

3 Tesco Express, Old Brompton Road, South Kensington District Centre 0.0% 0.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

3 Waitrose (Little), Old Brompton Road, South Kensington District Centre 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%

Sub-Total 0.0% 0.2% 46.3% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4.5% 4.8% 1.6% 0.0%

Central and North Sub Area (See Note A)

Major Centres

2 M&S, Kensington High Street Major Centre 0.5% 4.9% 0.3% 0.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 1.9% 0.0%

2 Sainsbury's Local, Kensington High Street Major Centre 0.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2 Waitrose, Kensington High Street Major Centre 0.3% 10.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 0.0%

2 Whole Foods, Kensington High Street Major Centre 1.7% 3.9% 0.2% 2.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

2 Local Shops, Kensington High Street Major Centre 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%

District Centres

2 M&S, Notting Hill Gate District Centre 0.7% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2 Tesco Metro, Notting Hill Gate District Centre 2.5% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2 Waitrose (Little), Notting Hill Gate District Centre 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

1 Sainsbury's Local, Portobello Road District Centre 3.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

1 Tesco Metro, Portobello Road District Centre 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

1 Portobello Market, Portobello Road District Centre 2.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

1 Local Shops, Portobello Road District Centre 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2 M&S, Earls Court Road District Centre 0.0% 2.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

2 Sainsbury's Local, Earls Court Road District Centre 0.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0%

1 Local Shops, Westbourne Grove District Centre 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Other

2 Sainsbury's Superstore, Cromwell Road Air Terminal Neighbourhood Centre 0.2% 15.0% 4.5% 0.0% 0.1% 3.4% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2%

Sub-Total - Town Centres Central and North Sub Area 24.1% 52.5% 5.7% 2.4% 3.5% 4.5% 0.6% 0.6% 6.4% 0.2%

Out of Centre

1 Sainsbury's Superstore, Canal Way, Ladbroke Grove, W10 5AA 25.2% 0.3% 0.5% 10.5% 12.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% 2.9%

2 Tesco Superstore, West Cromwell Road, Kensington, W14 8PB 2.3% 17.3% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 1.9% 2.6% 0.0%

Sub-Total - Out of Centre Central and North Sub Area 27.5% 17.5% 5.3% 10.5% 12.4% 1.3% 0.0% 1.9% 5.0% 2.9%

Total Kensington & Chelsea Borough 51.6% 70.3% 57.4% 12.9% 18.0% 6.9% 5.1% 7.4% 12.9% 3.1%

Destinations for Convenience Goods Outside Kensington & Chelsea Borough

3Sainsbury's Local, Brompton Road, Knightsbridge, SW3 1JJ

[In Knightsbridge International Centre, but outside K&C Borough ]0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

3Waitrose (Little), Brompton Road, Knightsbridge, SW3 1JE

[In Knightsbridge International Centre, but outside K&C Borough ]0.0% 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

5Co-Op, Westbourne Grove Special District Centre

[In Knightsbridge International Centre, but outside K&C Borough]0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

5Sainsbury's Local, Westbourne Grove Special District Centre

[In Knightsbridge International Centre, but outside K&C Borough]0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

4 Lidl, Edgware Road, Cricklewood, NW2 6ND 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%

4 Sainsbury's Superstore, High Road, Willesden Green, NW10 2TD 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 29.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

5 Co-op, Harrow Road, Maida Hill, W9 3QA 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

5 Iceland, Harrow Road, Maida Hill, W9 3QA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6%

6 Sainsbury's Superstore, Wilton Road, Pimlico, Victoria, SW1V 1DT 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 1.2% 0.0% 24.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0%

6 Waitrose, Motcomb Street, Belgravia, SW1X 8GG 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

7 Asda, Clapham Junction, Lavender Hill, SW11 1JG 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 22.6% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%

7 Lidl, Falcon Lane, Battersea, SW11 2LG 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 6.6% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%

7 M&S (Foodhall), St John's Road, Clapham Junction, SW11 1QP 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

8 Sainsbury's Superstore, Fulham Broadway, Fulham, SW6 1BW 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0%

8 Sainsbury's Superstore, Townmead Road, Fulham, SW6 2GH 0.0% 0.0% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% 14.1% 0.6% 0.0%

8 Waitrose, North End Road, Fulham, SW6 1LU 0.0% 0.1% 1.5% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 20.8% 2.5% 0.0%

9 Lidl, West 12 Shopping Centre, Shepherds Bush Green, W12 8PP 2.6% 1.7% 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 11.9% 1.1%

9 Tesco Superstore, Shepherds Bush Road, Hammersmith, W6 7NL 2.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 15.8% 5.9%

10 Iceland, Old Oak Common Lane, East Acton, W3 7DA 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.1%

10 Tesco Metro, Harlesden Plaza, Harlesden, NW10 4NG 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.2%

10 Tesco Metro, The Vale, Acton, W3 7XA 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 9.0%

- Asda, Park Royal, Ealing, NW10 7LW 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 14.6%

- Morrisons, High Street, Acton, W3 9LA 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 6.5%

- Sainsbury's Superstore, Garratt Lane, Wandsworth, SW18 4AD 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 12.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%

- Sainsbury's Superstore, Kilburn High Road, Kilburn, NW6 4HS 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

- Tesco Extra, Brent Park, Neasden, (Wembley Extra), NW10 0TL 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5%

Total Outside Cambridge City and South Cambridgeshire District Council 12.6% 3.2% 16.4% 51.9% 30.9% 34.2% 49.4% 49.4% 34.2% 59.6%

ALL DESTINATIONS 64.1% 73.5% 73.7% 64.7% 48.8% 41.1% 54.5% 56.9% 47.1% 62.6%

OTHER DESTINATIONS 35.9% 26.5% 26.3% 35.3% 51.2% 58.9% 45.5% 43.1% 52.9% 37.4%


Table 6 - Convenience Goods Allocation - Spend (£) 2021

Survey

Location

Zone

Zone 1

£m

Zone 2

£m

Zone 3

£m

Zone 4

£m

Zone 5

£m

Zone 6

£m

Zone 7

£m

Zone 8

£m

Zone 9

£m

Zone 10

£m

Total

£m

Total

%

Total Available Convenience Goods Spend - 2021 (£m) 158.9 180.9 151.4 210.6 231.1 199.9 289.8 174.5 207.0 184.0 1,988.0 100.0


South Sub-Area

Major Centres

3 M&S, King's Road (East) Major Centre 0.0 0.0 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 4.5 0.6 1.8 0.0 20.4 1.0

3 Waitrose, King's Road (East) Major Centre 0.0 0.0 41.6 0.0 0.0 1.5 7.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 51.5 2.6

3 Local Shops, King's Road (East) Major Centre 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.1

District Centres

3 Londis, King's Road (West) District Centre 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0

3 M&S Simply Food, Fulham Road (West) District Centre 0.0 0.0 3.6 0.0 4.4 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.4 0.4

3 Sainsbury's Local, Fulham Road (West) District Centre 0.0 0.0 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 6.9 0.3

3 Tesco Express, Fulham Road (West) District Centre 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.5 1.5 0.0 7.3 0.4

3 Local Shops, Fulham Road (West) District Centre 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.1

3 Tesco Express, Old Brompton Road, South Kensington District Centre 0.0 0.3 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.1

3 Waitrose (Little), Old Brompton Road, South Kensington District Centre 0.0 0.1 1.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.1

Sub-Total - Town Centres South Sub-Area 0.0 0.4 70.1 0.0 4.6 2.1 13.0 8.5 3.3 0.0 101.8 5.1

Central and North Sub Area

Major Centres

2 M&S, Kensington High Street Major Centre 0.7 8.8 0.4 0.0 2.9 0.5 0.0 0.2 3.9 0.0 17.3 0.9

2 Sainsbury's Local, Kensington High Street Major Centre 0.0 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8 0.1

2 Waitrose, Kensington High Street Major Centre 0.4 19.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 0.0 26.6 1.3

2 Whole Foods, Kensington High Street Major Centre 2.7 7.1 0.3 4.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 15.4 0.8

2 Local Shops, Kensington High Street Major Centre 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 2.5 0.1

District Centres

2 M&S, Notting Hill Gate District Centre 1.1 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.0 0.6

2 Tesco Metro, Notting Hill Gate District Centre 4.0 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.8 0.7

2 Waitrose (Little), Notting Hill Gate District Centre 1.2 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 0.2

1 Sainsbury's Local, Portobello Road District Centre 6.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.6 0.3

1 Tesco Metro, Portobello Road District Centre 16.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.5 0.8

1 Portobello Market, Portobello Road District Centre 4.6 0.5 0.0 0.2 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.6 0.4

1 Local Shops, Portobello Road District Centre 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0

2 M&S, Earls Court Road District Centre 0.0 4.7 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5 0.3

2 Sainsbury's Local, Earls Court Road District Centre 0.0 2.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 4.2 0.2

1 Local Shops, Westbourne Grove District Centre 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.1

Other

2 Sainsbury's Superstore, Cromwell Road Air Terminal Neighbourhood Centre 0.3 27.1 6.8 0.0 0.2 6.7 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.3 44.5 2.2

Sub-Total - Town Centres Central and North Sub Area 38.3 95.1 8.7 5.0 8.2 9.1 1.8 1.1 13.2 0.3 180.7 9.1

Out of Centre

1 Sainsbury's Superstore, Canal Way, Ladbroke Grove, W10 5AA 40.0 0.5 0.7 22.1 28.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 4.9 5.3 102.8 5.2

2 Tesco Superstore, West Cromwell Road, Kensington, W14 8PB 3.7 31.2 7.4 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.0 3.4 5.4 0.0 53.2 2.7

Sub-Total - Out of Centre Central and North Sub Area 43.6 31.8 8.1 22.1 28.8 2.6 0.0 3.4 10.3 5.3 156.0 7.8

Total Kensington & Chelsea Borough 81.9 127.2 86.9 27.1 41.5 13.8 14.8 13.0 26.8 5.7 438.5 22.1


[In Knightsbridge International Centre, but outside K&C Borough ]0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.1




[In Knightsbridge International Centre, but outside K&C Borough]0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0



4 Lidl, Edgware Road, Cricklewood, NW2 6ND 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12.9 0.7

4 Sainsbury's Superstore, High Road, Willesden Green, NW10 2TD 0.0 0.0 0.0 61.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 61.2 3.1

5 Co-op, Harrow Road, Maida Hill, W9 3QA 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.8 1.0

5 Iceland, Harrow Road, Maida Hill, W9 3QA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 27.0 1.4

6 Sainsbury's Superstore, Wilton Road, Pimlico, Victoria, SW1V 1DT 0.0 0.0 0.9 2.6 0.0 48.6 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 53.4 2.7

6 Waitrose, Motcomb Street, Belgravia, SW1X 8GG 0.0 0.0 10.7 0.0 0.0 16.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 26.8 1.3

7 Asda, Clapham Junction, Lavender Hill, SW11 1JG 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 65.4 1.0 1.3 0.0 68.9 3.5

7 Lidl, Falcon Lane, Battersea, SW11 2LG 0.0 0.0 3.2 0.0 0.0 1.5 19.1 3.6 0.0 0.0 27.4 1.4

7 M&S (Foodhall), St John's Road, Clapham Junction, SW11 1QP 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.9 0.8

8 Sainsbury's Superstore, Fulham Broadway, Fulham, SW6 1BW 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.0 0.0 0.0 15.0 0.8

8 Sainsbury's Superstore, Townmead Road, Fulham, SW6 2GH 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6 24.5 1.2 0.0 35.3 1.8

8 Waitrose, North End Road, Fulham, SW6 1LU 0.0 0.2 2.3 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 36.4 5.2 0.0 44.9 2.3

9 Lidl, West 12 Shopping Centre, Shepherds Bush Green, W12 8PP 4.1 3.0 0.0 1.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 24.7 2.0 36.2 1.8

9 Tesco Superstore, Shepherds Bush Road, Hammersmith, W6 7NL 3.4 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 32.8 10.8 53.7 2.7

10 Iceland, Old Oak Common Lane, East Acton, W3 7DA 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3 10.3 0.5

10 Tesco Metro, Harlesden Plaza, Harlesden, NW10 4NG 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.6 14.6 0.7

10 Tesco Metro, The Vale, Acton, W3 7XA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 16.5 18.1 0.9

- Asda, Park Royal, Ealing, NW10 7LW 4.7 0.0 0.0 8.5 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 26.9 44.9 2.3

- Morrisons, High Street, Acton, W3 9LA 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 12.0 13.4 0.7

- Sainsbury's Superstore, Garratt Lane, Wandsworth, SW18 4AD 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 36.1 1.0 0.0 0.0 37.3 1.9

- Sainsbury's Superstore, Kilburn High Road, Kilburn, NW6 4HS 0.7 0.0 0.0 3.7 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.4 0.9

- Tesco Extra, Brent Park, Neasden, (Wembley Extra), NW10 0TL 2.5 0.0 0.0 14.1 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.2 39.0 2.0

Total Outside Kensington & Chelsea Borough 20.0 5.8 24.8 109.2 71.3 68.4 143.1 86.2 70.8 109.6 709.2 35.7

ALL DESTINATIONS 101.9 133.0 111.6 136.3 112.8 82.2 157.9 99.2 97.6 115.2 1,147.7 57.7

OTHER DESTINATIONS 57.0 48.0 39.8 74.3 118.2 117.7 132.0 75.3 109.4 68.7 840.3 42.3




Survey

Location

Zone

Zone 1

£m

Zone 2

£m

Zone 3

£m

Zone 4

£m

Zone 5

£m

Zone 6

£m

Zone 7

£m

Zone 8

£m

Zone 9

£m

Zone 10

£m

Total

£m

Total

%



South Sub-Area

Major Centres




District Centres










Major Centres






District Centres











Other



Out of Centre









































Survey

Location

Zone

Zone 1

£m

Zone 2

£m

Zone 3

£m

Zone 4

£m

Zone 5

£m

Zone 6

£m

Zone 7

£m

Zone 8

£m

Zone 9

£m

Zone 10

£m

Total

£m

Total

%



South Sub-Area

Major Centres




District Centres










Major Centres






District Centres











Other



Out of Centre









































Survey

Location

Zone

Zone 1

£m

Zone 2

£m

Zone 3

£m

Zone 4

£m

Zone 5

£m

Zone 6

£m

Zone 7

£m

Zone 8

£m

Zone 9

£m

Zone 10

£m

Total

£m

Total

%



South Sub-Area

Major Centres




District Centres










Major Centres






District Centres











Other



Out of Centre









































Survey

Location

Zone

Zone 1

£m

Zone 2

£m

Zone 3

£m

Zone 4

£m

Zone 5

£m

Zone 6

£m

Zone 7

£m

Zone 8

£m

Zone 9

£m

Zone 10

£m

Total

£m

Total

%



South Sub-Area

Major Centres




District Centres










Major Centres






District Centres











Other



Out of Centre









































Survey

Location

Zone

Zone 1

£m

Zone 2

£m

Zone 3

£m

Zone 4

£m

Zone 5

£m

Zone 6

£m

Zone 7

£m

Zone 8

£m

Zone 9

£m

Zone 10

£m

Total

£m

Total

%



South Sub-Area

Major Centres




District Centres










Major Centres






District Centres











Other



Out of Centre







































Kensington & Chelsea Retail and Leisure Needs Assessment 2021

Convenience Goods Need Forecasts

Table 12 - Convenience Goods Floorspace 2021

Total net Net Conv Net Co Average Average

floorspace Ratio Convenience Sales Turnover 2021

(sq.m)* (%) (sqm) (£ per sqm net) (£m)

RBKC - South Sub-Area

International Centre

Local Shops, Knightsbridge 1337 95% 1,270 6000 7.6

Major Centres

M&S, King's Road (East) Major Centre 1,696 95% 1,611 10,965 17.7

Waitrose, King's Road (East) Major Centre 1,633 90% 1,470 13,431 19.7

Local Shops, King's Road (East) Major Centre 1,242 95% 1,180 6,000 7.1

District Centres

Londis, King's Road (West) District Centre 84 95% 80 6,000 0.5

Local Shops, King's Road (West) District Centre 294 95% 279 6,000 1.7

M&S Simply Food, Fulham Road (West) District Centre 144 95% 137 10,965 1.5

Sainsbury's Local, Fulham Road (West) District Centre 210 95% 200 12,191 2.4

Tesco Express, Fulham Road (West) District Centre 231 95% 219 12,911 2.8

Local Shops, Fulham Road (West) District Centre 1,302 95% 1,237 6,000 7.4

Tesco Express, Old Brompton Road, South Kensington District Centre 175 95% 166 12,911 2.1

Waitrose (Little), Old Brompton Road, South Kensington District Centre 308 95% 293 13,431 3.9

Local Shops, South Kensington District Centre 1,780 95% 1,691 6,000 10.1

Local Shops, Brompton Cross District Centre 560 95% 532 6,000 3.2

Sub-Total - Town Centres South Sub-Area 10,996 - 10,365 - 87.9

RBKC - Central and North Sub Area

Major Centres

M&S, Kensington High Street Major Centre 1,347 95% 1,280 10,965 14.0

Sainsbury's Local, Kensington High Street Major Centre 203 95% 193 12,191 2.4

Waitrose, Kensington High Street Major Centre 1,351 90% 1,216 13,431 16.3

Whole Foods, Kensington High Street Major Centre 1,827 90% 1,644 12,000 19.7

Local Shops, Kensington High Street Major Centre 1,568 95% 1,490 6,000 8.9

District Centres

M&S, Notting Hill Gate District Centre 231 95% 219 10,965 2.4

Tesco Metro, Notting Hill Gate District Centre 476 95% 452 12,911 5.8

Waitrose (Little), Notting Hill Gate District Centre 245 95% 233 13,431 3.1

Local Shops, Notting Hill Gate District Centre 861 95% 818 6,000 4.9

Sainsbury's Local, Portobello Road District Centre 315 95% 299 12,191 3.6

Tesco Metro, Portobello Road District Centre 532 95% 505 12,911 6.5

Portobello Market, Portobello Road District Centre 200 100% 200 3,000 0.6

Local Shops, Portobello Road District Centre 2,436 95% 2,314 6,000 13.9

M&S, Earls Court Road District Centre 350 95% 333 10,965 3.6

Sainsbury's Local, Earls Court Road District Centre 238 95% 226 12,191 2.8

Local Shops, Earls Court District Centre 1,022 95% 971 6,000 5.8

Local Shops, Westbourne Grove District Centre 525 95% 499 6,000 3.0

Neighbourhood Centre

Sainsbury's Superstore, Cromwell Road Air Terminal Neighbourhood Centre 3,641 75% 2,731 12,191 33.3

Sub-Total - Town Centres Central and North Sub Area 17,368 - 15,623 - 150.8

RBKC - Main Out-of-Centre

Sainsbury's Superstore, Canal Way, Ladbroke Grove, W10 5AA 4,899 75% 3,674 12,191 44.8

Tesco Superstore, West Cromwell Road, Kensington, W14 8PB 4,080 75% 3,060 12,911 39.5

Sub-Total - Out-of-Centre 8,979 - 6,734 - 84.3

TOTAL RBKC 37,343 - 32,721 9,871 323.0


Table 13a - Global Convenience Goods Floorspace Need - Borough-wide

2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2043

Total Available Expenditure (Zone 1-10) (£m) 1,988.0 2,045.8 2,073.6 2,104.8 2,140.9 2,151.2

Market Share from Survey Area (Zone 1-10) (%) 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0

Survey Area Residents Spending (a) (£m) 438.5 446.7 450.0 454.5 459.9 461.1

Convenience goods spending in Study Area (£m) 438.5 446.7 450.0 454.5 459.9 461.1

Existing Retail Floorspace (sq m net) 32,721 32,721 32,721 32,721 32,721 32,721

Sales per sqm net (£) 13,400 10,060 10,212 10,366 10,522 10,586

Sales from Existing Floorspace (£m) 438.5 329.2 334.1 339.2 344.3 346.4

Residual Spending to support new floorspace (£000) 0.0 117.5 115.9 115.4 115.6 114.8

Sales per sq m net in new shops (£) 12,000 12,230 12,414 12,602 12,792 12,869

Capacity for new floorspace (sqm net) 0 9,611 9,335 9,154 9,036 8,918

(a) Spending in: Knightsbridge; Kings Road (East); Kensington High Street; Fulham Road (West); Kings Road (West); Brompton Cross; South Kensington; Earls Court

Road; Notting Hill Gate; Portobello Road; Westbourne Grove; and out-of-centre Sainsbury's Ladbroke Grove

Sales density of -2.0% 2019; 5.4% 2020; -4.8% 2021; 0.7% 2022; 0.3% 2023-40 (source: Experian Retail Planner 18, October 2020, Figure 3a)


Table 13b - Central/North Sub-Area Convenience Goods Floorspace Need

2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2043






Sales per sqm net (£) (b) 15,061 10,718 10,880 11,044 11,211 11,278



Sales per sq m net in new shops (£) (b) 12,000 12,230 12,414 12,602 12,792 12,869




(b) Sales density of -2.0% 2019; 5.4% 2020; -4.8% 2021; 0.7% 2022; 0.3% 2023-40 (source: Experian Retail Planner 18, October 2020, Figure 3a)


Table 13c - South Sub-Area Convenience Goods Floorspace Need

2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2043






Sales per sqm net (£) 9,819 8,639 8,770 8,902 9,036 9,091







Sales density of -2.0% 2019; 5.4% 2020; -4.8% 2021; 0.7% 2022; 0.3% 2023-40 (source: Experian Retail Planner 18, October 2020, Figure 3a)

Appendix 2 Comparison Goods Need Forecasts

Kensington & Chelsea Retail and Leisure Needs Assessment 2021Comparison Goods Need Forecasts

Table 1: Survey Area Postcode Composition

Zone Postcode Sectors

Zone 1 NW10 5; W10 5/6; W11 1/2/4

Zone 2 SW5 0/9; SW7 4/5; W2 4; W8 4/5/6/7; W11 3; W14 8

Zone 3 SW7 2/3; SW10 0; SW3 1/2/3/4/5/6; SW10 9; SW1W 8; SW1X 0/9

Zone 4 NW2 4/5/6; NW6 7; NW10 1/2/3/9

Zone 5 NW6 5/6; W2 5/6; W9 1/2/3; W10 4

Zone 6SW7 1; SW1A 1; SW1E 5/6; SW1H 0/9; SW1P 1/2/4; SW1V 1/2/3/4/0;

SW1W 9; SW1X 7/8; W2 2/3; W1H 5/7; W1J 6/7/8; W1K 1/2/6/7; W1S 4

Zone 7 SW8 3/4/5; SW18 1/2; SW11 1/2/3/4/5; SW15 2

Zone 8 SW6 1/2/3/4/5/6/7

Zone 9 W6 0/7/8/9; W12 8/9; W14 0/9

Zone 10 NW10 4/6/8; W3 7; W12 0/7

Kensington & Chelsea Retail and Leisure Needs Assessment 2021

Comparison Goods Need Forecasts

Table 2: Survey Area Population Forecasts

Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 Zone 10 TOTAL

2021 64,305 73,245 61,288 85,243 93,533 80,910 117,322 70,617 83,784 74,464 804,711

2026 64,383 73,236 61,600 86,465 97,123 84,210 120,267 72,497 85,734 75,680 821,195

2031 64,757 73,322 61,841 87,407 99,835 86,426 122,000 73,643 87,324 76,921 833,476

2036 65,417 73,722 62,282 88,473 102,548 88,319 124,455 74,986 88,717 78,277 847,196

2041 65,934 73,965 62,623 89,477 105,261 90,374 126,549 76,231 90,209 79,576 860,197

2043 66,141 74,062 62,759 89,879 106,346 91,195 127,387 76,728 90,805 80,095 865,397

Total 390,937 441,552 372,393 526,944 604,645 521,434 737,980 444,702 526,573 465,012 5,032,171

Change 2021-2026 78 -9 312 1,222 3,590 3,300 2,945 1,880 1,950 1,216 16,484

Change 2026-2031 374 86 241 942 2,712 2,216 1,733 1,146 1,590 1,241 12,281

Change 2031-2036 660 400 441 1,066 2,713 1,893 2,455 1,343 1,393 1,356 13,720

Change 2036-2041 517 243 341 1,004 2,713 2,055 2,094 1,245 1,492 1,299 13,001

TOTAL Change 2021-2043 1,836 817 1,471 4,636 12,813 10,285 10,065 6,111 7,021 5,631 60,686

Source: Experian

Kensington & Chelsea Retail and Leisure Needs Assessment, 2021Comparison Goods Need Forecasts

Table 3: Survey Area per Capita Expenditure Forecasts

Expenditure per Capita (£) SFT (%) SFT (£)Expenditure per capita

less SFT

2021 4,047 21.8% 882 3,165

2026 4,765 25.2% 1,201 3,564

2031 5,502 27.2% 1,497 4,006

2036 6,348 28.2% 1,790 4,558

2041 7,323 28.7% 2,102 5,221

2043 7,754 28.7% 2,225 5,529

Expenditure growth rates: 2020: -8.5%; 2021: 6.5%; 2022: 3.8%; 2023-2027: 3.0%; 2028-2040: 2.9%

Source: Experian E-Marketer. Expenditure growth rates and allowance for SFT are sourced from Experian Retail Planner 18 (October 2020).

Price Base: 2019

Kensington & Chelsea Retail and Leisure Needs Assessment, 2021Comparison Goods Need Forecasts

Table 4 - Survey Area Comparison Goods Expenditure

Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 Zone 10 Total

(£m) (£m) (£m) (£m) (£m) (£m) (£m) (£m) (£m) (£m) (£m)

2021 203.51 231.80 193.96 269.77 296.01 256.06 371.29 223.49 265.16 235.66 2,546.71

2026 229.46 261.01 219.54 308.16 346.15 300.13 428.63 258.38 305.56 269.73 2,926.76

2031 259.39 293.70 247.71 350.12 399.90 346.19 488.68 294.99 349.79 308.12 3,338.58

2036 298.15 336.00 283.86 403.23 467.38 402.53 567.22 341.76 404.34 356.76 3,861.21

2041 344.26 386.20 326.98 467.19 549.60 471.87 660.75 398.02 471.01 415.49 4,491.37

2043 365.66 409.46 346.97 496.90 587.94 504.18 704.26 424.20 502.02 442.81 4,784.39

Change 2021-43 (£m) 162.15 177.65 153.01 227.13 291.93 248.12 332.97 200.71 236.87 207.15 2,237.69

Change 2021-2043 (%) 79.68 76.64 78.89 84.19 98.62 96.90 89.68 89.81 89.33 87.90 87.87

Source: Tables 2 and 3


Table 5 - Comparison Goods Allocation - % Market Share (2021)Survey

Locatio

n

Zone

Zone 1

%

Zone 2

%

Zone 3

%

Zone 4

%

Zone 5

%

Zone 6

%

Zone 7

%

Zone 8

%

Zone 9

%

Zone 10

%

Destinations for Comparison Goods in Kensington & Chelsea Council Area



6 Knightsbridge International Centre 0.1% 3.6% 2.3% 0.1% 0.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1%

Major Centres

3 King's Road (East) Major Centre 3.3% 10.1% 62.8% 0.1% 0.6% 18.6% 19.6% 18.7% 6.6% 0.5%

District Centres

3 King's Road (West) District Centre 0.0% 0.2% 4.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.9% 0.1% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0%

3 Fulham Road (West) District Centre 0.0% 0.4% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0%

3 Brompton Cross District Centre 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

3 South Kensington District Centre 0.0% 0.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%

Sub-Total 3.3% 15.0% 71.7% 0.2% 1.5% 20.3% 20.3% 24.7% 7.4% 0.6%


Major Centres

2 Kensington High Street Major Centre 7.8% 45.3% 8.6% 1.7% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 2.9% 17.7% 0.7%

District Centres

2 Notting Hill Gate District Centre 7.3% 4.4% 0.0% 0.2% 1.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.8%

1 Portobello Road District Centre 4.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7%

2 Earls Court Road District Centre 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

1 Westbourne Grove District Centre 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%

Out of Centre

1 Sainsbury's, Ladbroke Grove 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 1.0%

Sub-Total 22.3% 51.5% 8.8% 2.8% 7.3% 1.7% 0.1% 2.9% 19.1% 3.2%

Total Kensington & Chelsea Borough 25.6% 66.5% 80.5% 3.0% 8.8% 22.0% 20.5% 27.6% 26.6% 3.8%

Destinations for Comparison Goods outside Kensington & Chelsea Borough

Kilburn 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%

Kensal Rise 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Staples Corner Retail Park, Brent Cross 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 2.8%

Willesden Green 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 4.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Maida Vale 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Pimlico 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Victoria 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Clapham Junction 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 17.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0%

Fulham Broadway 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 7.1% 0.4% 0.0%

Shepherds Bush Green 3.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 1.4% 0.4% 3.8% 3.4%

Westfield White City 22.7% 9.5% 2.2% 8.8% 7.1% 0.4% 3.7% 9.1% 17.6% 36.9%

Brent Cross 1.3% 0.0% 0.1% 25.1% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 2.5%

Central London/West End 9.7% 6.3% 4.7% 13.0% 26.1% 36.8% 9.0% 10.2% 8.8% 5.4%

Hammersmith 1.1% 1.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 12.1% 7.7%

Ikea, Wembley 3.1% 2.7% 1.4% 3.6% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 1.8% 4.9%

Kingston-upon-Thames 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.9% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0%

Marylebone 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Putney 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0%

Wandsworth 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.8% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0%

Total Outside Kensington & Chelsea Borough 55.2% 21.4% 10.5% 76.2% 68.3% 60.6% 50.7% 43.6% 45.5% 63.8%

Total All Destinations 80.8% 87.9% 91.0% 79.2% 77.1% 82.6% 71.2% 71.2% 72.0% 67.6%

Other Destinations 19.2% 12.1% 9.0% 20.8% 22.9% 17.4% 28.8% 28.8% 28.0% 32.4%


Table 6 - Comparison Goods Allocation - Spend (£) 2021

Survey

Location

Zone

Zone 1

£m

Zone 2

£m

Zone 3

£m

Zone 4

£m

Zone 5

£m

Zone 6

£m

Zone 7

£m

Zone 8

£m

Zone 9

£m

Zone 10

£m

Total

£m

Total

%

Total Available Comparison Goods Spend - 2021 203.5 231.8 194.0 269.8 296.0 256.1 371.3 223.5 265.2 235.7 2,546.7 100.0




6 Knightsbridge International Centre 0.1 8.3 4.4 0.3 2.1 2.2 1.2 0.0 1.6 0.3 20.5 0.8

Major Centres

3 King's Road (East) Major Centre 6.6 23.4 121.8 0.2 1.7 47.5 72.6 41.7 17.4 1.1 334.1 13.1

District Centres

3 King's Road (West) District Centre 0.0 0.6 7.8 0.0 0.5 2.3 0.4 4.4 0.0 0.0 16.0 0.6

3 Fulham Road (West) District Centre 0.0 1.0 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 9.0 0.0 0.0 14.8 0.6

3 Brompton Cross District Centre 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0

3 South Kensington District Centre 0.0 1.1 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 3.4 0.1

Sub-Total 6.7 34.9 139.1 0.5 4.3 52.0 75.5 55.1 19.7 1.4 389.2 15.3


Major Centres

2 Kensington High Street Major Centre 15.9 105.1 16.6 4.7 5.4 1.6 0.5 6.4 46.8 1.7 204.8 8.0

District Centres

2 Notting Hill Gate District Centre 14.9 10.2 0.0 0.7 4.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.0 33.7 1.3

1 Portobello Road District Centre 8.5 0.7 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 12.2 0.5

2 Earls Court Road District Centre 0.0 2.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 3.1 0.1

1 Westbourne Grove District Centre 0.6 1.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 6.3 0.2

Out of Centre

1 Sainsbury's, Ladbroke Grove 5.5 0.0 0.0 2.3 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 20.4 0.8

Sub-Total 45.3 119.3 17.1 7.6 21.6 4.3 0.5 6.4 50.7 7.4 280.4 11.0

Total Kensington & Chelsea Borough (£m) 52.0 154.2 156.2 8.1 25.9 56.3 76.0 61.6 70.4 8.8 669.6 26.3


Kilburn 12.7 0.0 0.0 26.4 49.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 88.9 3.5

Kensal Rise 5.5 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5 0.3

Staples Corner Retail Park, Brent Cross 10.0 0.0 0.0 28.6 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 6.5 54.1 2.1

Willesden Green 0.4 0.0 0.0 11.0 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13.4 0.5

Maida Vale 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.0 0.6

Pimlico 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 17.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.0 0.7

Victoria 0.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 36.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 37.5 1.5

Clapham Junction 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.6 65.4 1.0 0.0 0.0 67.4 2.6

Fulham Broadway 0.0 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 15.8 1.0 0.0 18.9 0.7

Shepherds Bush Green 6.5 1.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.3 5.3 0.9 10.2 8.0 32.8 1.3

Westfield White City 46.1 22.0 4.2 23.6 21.0 0.9 13.7 20.4 46.8 86.9 285.9 11.2

Brent Cross 2.7 0.0 0.3 67.6 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 6.0 86.7 3.4

Central London/West End 19.7 14.6 9.0 35.2 77.4 94.1 33.5 22.8 23.4 12.7 342.5 13.4

Hammersmith 2.2 3.6 1.5 0.2 2.4 0.0 0.0 16.7 32.1 18.1 76.8 3.0

Ikea, Wembley 6.4 6.1 2.7 9.8 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.8 11.5 51.5 2.0

Kingston-upon-Thames 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.9 3.2 0.8 0.0 15.9 0.6

Marylebone 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 7.1 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12.1 0.5

Putney 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 4.3 13.0 0.0 0.0 18.1 0.7

Wandsworth 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 54.8 3.1 0.0 0.0 57.8 2.3

Total Outside Kensington & Chelsea Borough (£m) 112.4 49.5 20.3 205.6 202.2 155.1 188.2 97.4 120.5 150.4 1,301.9 51.1

Total All Destinations (£m) 164.4 203.7 176.5 213.7 228.2 211.4 264.2 159.0 191.0 159.3 1,971.4 77.4

Other Destinations (£m) 39.1 28.1 17.4 56.0 67.9 44.7 107.1 64.5 74.2 76.4 575.3 22.6


Table 7 - Comparison Goods Allocation - Spend (£) 2026Survey

Location

Zone

Zone 1

£m

Zone 2

£m

Zone 3

£m

Zone 4

£m

Zone 5

£m

Zone 6

£m

Zone 7

£m

Zone 8

£m

Zone 9

£m

Zone 10

£m

Total

£m

Total

%






Major Centres


District Centres 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0





Sub-Total 7.6 39.3 157.4 0.5 5.1 61.0 87.1 63.7 22.7 1.6 446.0 15.2


Major Centres


District Centres





Out of Centre


Sub-Total 51.1 134.4 19.4 8.7 25.2 5.0 0.6 7.4 58.5 8.5 318.8 10.9



Kilburn 14.3 0.0 0.0 30.2 57.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 102.7 3.5

Kensal Rise 6.2 0.0 0.0 2.3 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.6 0.3


Willesden Green 0.5 0.0 0.0 12.5 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15.4 0.5

Maida Vale 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.5 0.6

Pimlico 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 21.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.1 0.7

Victoria 0.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 42.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 43.9 1.5


Fulham Broadway 0.0 0.9 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 18.3 1.2 0.0 21.8 0.7



Brent Cross 3.1 0.0 0.3 77.2 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 6.9 99.3 3.4


Hammersmith 2.5 4.1 1.7 0.3 2.8 0.0 0.0 19.3 37.0 20.7 88.3 3.0

Ikea, Wembley 7.2 6.9 3.1 11.2 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 5.5 13.2 59.0 2.0


Marylebone 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.3 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14.1 0.5

Putney 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 4.9 15.0 0.0 0.0 20.9 0.7

Wandsworth 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 63.2 3.5 0.0 0.0 66.8 2.3






Survey

Location

Zone

Zone 1

£m

Zone 2

£m

Zone 3

£m

Zone 4

£m

Zone 5

£m

Zone 6

£m

Zone 7

£m

Zone 8

£m

Zone 9

£m

Zone 10

£m

Total

£m

Total

%






Major Centres







Sub-Total 8.6 44.2 177.6 0.6 5.9 70.3 99.4 72.8 25.9 1.8 507.1 15.2


Major Centres


District Centres





Out of Centre


Sub-Total 57.7 151.2 21.9 9.9 29.1 5.8 0.7 8.5 66.9 9.7 361.5 10.8



Kilburn 16.2 0.0 0.0 34.3 66.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 117.7 3.5

Kensal Rise 7.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.9 0.3


Willesden Green 0.5 0.0 0.0 14.2 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 17.5 0.5

Maida Vale 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.2 0.6

Pimlico 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 24.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.4 0.7

Victoria 0.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 48.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.6 1.5


Fulham Broadway 0.0 1.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 20.9 1.3 0.0 24.8 0.7



Brent Cross 3.5 0.0 0.3 87.7 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 7.8 113.1 3.4


Hammersmith 2.8 4.6 2.0 0.3 3.2 0.0 0.0 22.0 42.3 23.7 100.9 3.0

Ikea, Wembley 8.1 7.8 3.5 12.8 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 6.3 15.1 67.2 2.0


Marylebone 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.6 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16.3 0.5

Putney 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 5.6 17.1 0.0 0.0 23.8 0.7

Wandsworth 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 72.1 4.0 0.0 0.0 76.1 2.3






Survey

Location

Zone

Zone 1

£m

Zone 2

£m

Zone 3

£m

Zone 4

£m

Zone 5

£m

Zone 6

£m

Zone 7

£m

Zone 8

£m

Zone 9

£m

Zone 10

£m

Total

£m

Total

%






Major Centres







Sub-Total 9.9 50.5 203.5 0.7 6.9 81.8 115.3 84.3 30.0 2.1 585.0 15.2


Major Centres


District Centres





Out of Centre


Sub-Total 66.4 173.0 25.1 11.4 34.1 6.7 0.8 9.8 77.4 11.3 415.8 10.8

Total Kensington & Chelsea Borough (£m) 76.2 223.5 228.6 12.1 40.9 88.5 116.1 94.2 107.4 13.4 1,000.9 25.9


Kilburn 18.6 0.0 0.0 39.5 77.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 136.7 3.5

Kensal Rise 8.1 0.0 0.0 3.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.6 0.3


Willesden Green 0.6 0.0 0.0 16.4 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 20.2 0.5

Maida Vale 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 23.7 0.6

Pimlico 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 28.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.3 0.7

Victoria 0.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 56.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 58.9 1.5


Fulham Broadway 0.0 1.2 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 24.2 1.5 0.0 28.7 0.7



Brent Cross 4.0 0.0 0.4 101.0 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 9.1 130.5 3.4


Hammersmith 3.3 5.2 2.3 0.4 3.7 0.0 0.0 25.5 48.9 27.4 116.6 3.0

Ikea, Wembley 9.3 8.9 4.0 14.7 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 7.3 17.4 77.7 2.0


Marylebone 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.2 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 19.0 0.5

Putney 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 6.5 19.9 0.0 0.0 27.6 0.7

Wandsworth 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 83.7 4.7 0.0 0.0 88.4 2.3






Survey

Location

Zone

Zone 1

£m

Zone 2

£m

Zone 3

£m

Zone 4

£m

Zone 5

£m

Zone 6

£m

Zone 7

£m

Zone 8

£m

Zone 9

£m

Zone 10

£m

Total

£m

Total

%






Major Centres







Sub-Total 11.4 58.1 234.5 0.8 8.1 95.9 134.3 98.2 34.9 2.5 678.6 15.1


Major Centres


District Centres





Out of Centre


Sub-Total 76.6 198.8 28.9 13.2 40.0 7.9 0.9 11.5 90.1 13.1 481.1 10.7



Kilburn 21.5 0.0 0.0 45.8 91.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 159.7 3.6

Kensal Rise 9.3 0.0 0.0 3.5 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.6 0.3


Willesden Green 0.7 0.0 0.0 19.0 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 23.4 0.5

Maida Vale 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.8 0.6

Pimlico 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 33.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.2 0.7

Victoria 0.0 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 66.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 69.0 1.5


Fulham Broadway 0.0 1.3 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 28.2 1.8 0.0 33.5 0.7



Brent Cross 4.6 0.0 0.4 117.0 17.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 10.6 151.5 3.4


Hammersmith 3.8 6.0 2.6 0.4 4.4 0.0 0.0 29.7 57.0 31.9 135.7 3.0

Ikea, Wembley 10.8 10.2 4.6 17.0 17.9 0.0 0.0 0.9 8.5 20.3 90.3 2.0


Marylebone 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 13.2 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 22.4 0.5

Putney 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 7.6 23.1 0.0 0.0 32.1 0.7

Wandsworth 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.5 5.4 0.0 0.0 102.9 2.3



Other Destinations (£m) 66.1 46.8 29.4 97.1 126.0 82.3 190.6 114.8 131.8 134.7 1,019.5 22.7



Survey

Location

Zone

Zone 1

£m

Zone 2

£m

Zone 3

£m

Zone 4

£m

Zone 5

£m

Zone 6

£m

Zone 7

£m

Zone 8

£m

Zone 9

£m

Zone 10

£m

Total

£m

Total

%






Major Centres







Sub-Total 12.1 61.6 248.8 0.9 8.6 102.4 143.2 104.7 37.2 2.7 722.1 15.1


Major Centres


District Centres





Out of Centre


Sub-Total 81.4 210.8 30.6 14.0 42.8 8.4 0.9 12.2 96.1 14.0 511.4 10.7



Kilburn 22.8 0.0 0.0 48.7 97.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 170.3 3.6

Kensal Rise 9.9 0.0 0.0 3.7 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.5 0.3


Willesden Green 0.8 0.0 0.0 20.2 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 24.9 0.5

Maida Vale 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.8 0.6

Pimlico 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 35.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 35.5 0.7

Victoria 0.0 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 71.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 73.7 1.5


Fulham Broadway 0.0 1.4 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 30.0 1.9 0.0 35.6 0.7



Brent Cross 4.9 0.0 0.5 124.5 19.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 11.3 161.3 3.4


Hammersmith 4.0 6.4 2.8 0.4 4.7 0.0 0.0 31.6 60.7 34.0 144.6 3.0

Ikea, Wembley 11.4 10.9 4.9 18.1 19.2 0.0 0.0 0.9 9.1 21.6 96.1 2.0


Marylebone 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 14.1 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 23.9 0.5

Putney 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 8.1 24.6 0.0 0.0 34.2 0.7

Wandsworth 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 103.9 5.8 0.0 0.0 109.7 2.3



Other Destinations (£m) 70.2 49.6 31.2 103.2 134.8 88.0 203.1 122.3 140.5 143.5 1,086.5 22.7

Greater Cambridge Retail and Commercial Leisure Study 2021Comparison Goods Need Forecasts

Table 12 - Existing Comparison Goods Floorspace, 2021Survey

ZoneTown Centre Net Floorspace (sq m net)



6 Knightsbridge International Centre 27,944

Major Centres

3 King's Road (East) Major Centre 21,812

District Centres

3 King's Road (West) District Centre 5,418

3 Fulham Road (West) District Centre 2,835

3 Brompton Cross District Centre 9,429

3 South Kensington District Centre 2,044

Sub-Total 69,482


Major Centres

2 Kensington High Street Major Centre 17,871

District Centres

2 Notting Hill Gate District Centre 5,180

1 Portobello Road District Centre 8,652

2 Earls Court Road District Centre 1,372

1 Westbourne Grove District Centre 6,531

Sainsbury's, Ladbroke Grove 2,844

Sub-Total 42,450

TOTAL FLOORSPACE 111,932


Table 13a - Global Comparison Goods Floorspace Need - Borough-wide

2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2043


Market Share from Survey Area (Zone 1-10) (%) 26 26 26 26 26 26

Survey Area Residents Spending (a) (£m) 669.6 764.8 868.5 1,000.9 1,159.7 1,233.5

Inflow to K&C (50%) from Beyond Survey Area (b) (£m) 669.6 764.8 868.5 1,000.9 1,159.7 1,233.5

Comparison goods spending in Study Area (£m) 1,339.1 1,529.6 1,737.1 2,001.7 2,319.4 2,466.9


Sales per sqm net (£) 11,964 13,708 15,768 18,191 20,986 22,221

Sales from Existing Floorspace (£m) 1,339.1 1,534.4 1,765.0 2,036.2 2,349.0 2,487.2

Residual Spending to support new floorspace (£000) 0.0 -4.7 -27.9 -34.4 -29.7 -20.3


Capacity for new floorspace (sqm net) 0 -413 -2,115 -2,265 -1,691 -1,095



(b) 2008 Retail and Town Centre evidence base, in-centre shopper surveys, recorded 55% inflow from beyond the Study Area (para.19.35)/ Reduced to 50% in the

context of changing shopping habits, and evidence demonstrating lower market share outside Zones 1-3/the borough.


Table 13b - Global Comparison Goods Floorspace Need - CENTRAL AND NORTH SUB-AREA

2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2043




Inflow to K&C (35%) from Beyond Survey Area (b) (£m) 151.0 171.7 194.6 223.9 259.0 275.3

Comparison goods spending in Study Area (£m) 431.3 490.5 556.1 639.7 740.1 786.7


Sales per sqm net (£) 10,161 11,642 13,392 15,449 17,823 18,872


Residual Spending to support new floorspace (£000) 0.0 -3.7 -12.4 -16.1 -16.5 -14.4


Capacity for new floorspace (sqm net) 0 -327 -940 -1,058 -940 -776

(a) Spending in: Kensington High Street; Earls Court Road; Notting Hill Gate; Portobello Road; Westbourne Grove; and out-of-centre Sainsbury's Ladbroke Grove

(b) 2008 Retail and Town Centre evidence base, in-centre shopper surveys, recorded 40% inflow to Central and North Sub-Area from beyond the Study Area

(para.19.35)/ Reduced to 35% in the context of changing shopping habits, and evidence demonstrating lower market share outside Zones 1-3/the borough.


Table 13c - Global Comparison Goods Floorspace Need - SOUTH SUB-AREA

2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2043




Inflow to K&C (60%) from Beyond Survey Area (b) (£m) 583.8 669.0 760.6 877.5 1,017.9 1,083.1

Comparison goods spending in Study Area (£m) 973.0 1,115.0 1,267.7 1,462.5 1,696.5 1,805.2


Sales per sqm net (£) 14,004 16,045 18,457 21,293 24,565 26,010

Sales from Existing Floorspace (£m) 973.0 1,114.9 1,282.4 1,479.5 1,706.8 1,807.2

Residual Spending to support new floorspace (£000) 0.0 0.2 -14.7 -16.9 -10.3 -2.0


Capacity for new floorspace (sqm net) 0 15 -1,115 -1,113 -586 -108

(a) Spending in: Knightsbridge; Kings Road (East); Fulham Road (West); Kings Road (West); Brompton Cross; South Kensington

(b) 2008 Retail and Town Centre evidence base, in-centre shopper surveys, recorded 65% inflow to south sub-area from beyond the Study Area (para.19.35)/ Reduced

to 60% in the context of changing shopping habits, and evidence demonstrating lower market share outside Zones 1-3/the borough.

Appendix 3 Convenience Goods Floorspace Performance


Table 1 ‐ Convenience Goods Floorspace Performance 2021Total net Net Conv Net Co Average Average Est. Actual Difference from Avgfloorspace Ratio Convenience Sales Turnover 2021 Turnover 2021 Turnover 2021(sq.m)* (%) (sqm) (£ per sqm net) (£m) (£m) (£m)

(Table 6)RBKC ‐ South Sub‐Area

Major Centres

M&S, King's Road (East) Major Centre 1,696 95% 1,611 10,965 17.7 20.4 2.8

Waitrose, King's Road (East) Major Centre 1,633 90% 1,470 13,431 19.7 51.5 31.7

Local Shops, King's Road (East) Major Centre 1,242 95% 1,180 5,000 5.9 1.4 ‐4.5

District Centres

Londis, King's Road (West) District Centre 84 95% 80 6,000 0.5 0.5 0.0

M&S Simply Food, Fulham Road (West) District Centre 144 95% 137 10,965 1.5 8.4 6.9

Sainsbury's Local, Fulham Road (West) District Centre 210 95% 200 12,191 2.4 6.9 4.5

Tesco Express, Fulham Road (West) District Centre 231 95% 219 12,911 2.8 7.3 4.4

Local Shops, Fulham Road (West) District Centre 1,302 95% 1,237 5,000 6.2 1.3 ‐4.9

Tesco Express, Old Brompton Road, South Kensington District Centre 175 95% 166 12,911 2.1 1.8 ‐0.3

Waitrose (Little), Old Brompton Road, South Kensington District Centre 308 95% 293 13,431 3.9 2.3 ‐1.6

Sub‐Total ‐ Town Centres South Sub‐Area 7,025 ‐ 6,592 ‐ 62.8 101.8 30.0

RBKC ‐ Central and North Sub Area

Major Centres

M&S, Kensington High Street Major Centre 1,347 95% 1,280 10,965 14.0 17.3 3.3

Sainsbury's Local, Kensington High Street Major Centre 203 95% 193 12,191 2.4 2.8 0.5

Waitrose, Kensington High Street Major Centre 1,351 90% 1,216 13,431 16.3 26.6 10.2

Whole Foods, Kensington High Street Major Centre 1,827 90% 1,644 12,000 19.7 15.4 ‐4.4

Local Shops, Kensington High Street Major Centre 1,568 95% 1,490 5,000 7.4 2.5 ‐5.0

District Centres

M&S, Notting Hill Gate District Centre 231 95% 219 10,965 2.4 11.0 8.6

Tesco Metro, Notting Hill Gate District Centre 476 95% 452 12,911 5.8 13.8 8.0

Waitrose (Little), Notting Hill Gate District Centre 245 95% 233 13,431 3.1 3.9 0.8

Sainsbury's Local, Portobello Road District Centre 315 95% 299 12,191 3.6 6.6 3.0

Tesco Metro, Portobello Road District Centre 532 95% 505 12,911 6.5 16.5 10.0

Portobello Market, Portobello Road District Centre 200 100% 200 3,000 0.6 8.6 8.0

Local Shops, Portobello Road District Centre 2,436 95% 2,314 5,000 11.6 0.5 ‐11.1

M&S, Earls Court Road District Centre 350 95% 333 10,965 3.6 5.5 1.9

Sainsbury's Local, Earls Court Road District Centre 238 95% 226 12,191 2.8 4.2 1.4

Local Shops, Westbourne Grove District Centre 525 95% 499 5,000 2.5 1.1 ‐1.4

Neighbourhood Centre

Sainsbury's Superstore, Cromwell Road Air Terminal Neighbourhood Centre 3,641 75% 2,731 12,191 33.3 44.5 11.2

Sub‐Total ‐ Town Centres Central and North Sub Area 15,485 ‐ 13,834 ‐ 135.8 180.7 44.9

RBKC ‐ Main Out‐of‐Centre

Sainsbury's Superstore, Canal Way, Ladbroke Grove, W10 5AA 4,899 75% 3,674 12,191 44.8 102.8 58.0

Tesco Superstore, West Cromwell Road, Kensington, W14 8PB 4,080 75% 3,060 12,911 39.5 53.2 13.7

Sub‐Total ‐ Out‐of‐Centre 8,979 ‐ 6,734 ‐ 84.3 156.0 71.7

TOTAL RBKC 31,489 ‐ 27,160 10,416 282.9 438.5 146.6