RESEARCH FORECAST REPORT PAY-TV SERVICES IN EMERGING …€¦ · forecasts for the number of pay-TV households, services, spend and average spend per user (ASPU) forecasts split by

Pay-TV services in emerging Asia–Pacific: trends and forecasts 2016–2021

© Analysys Mason Limited 2016

RESEARCH FORECAST REPORT

analysysmason.com

PAY-TV SERVICES IN EMERGING ASIA–PACIFIC: TRENDS AND

FORECASTS 2016–2021

MARTIN SCOTT and SHERRIE HUANG



WHO SHOULD READ THIS REPORT

2

1 A limited set of KPIs is available in this report for OTT video services to the TV. Additional KPIs will

be available in our forthcoming forecasts for OTT video services in Europe.

This report provides:

forecasts for the number of pay-TV households, services, spend

and average spend per user (ASPU)

forecasts split by pay-TV platform: cable (analogue and digital),

IPTV, pay DTT, satellite and OTT video delivered to the TV set

forecasts for six individual countries and the emerging Asia-

Pacific (EMAP) region as a whole

an overview of the trends and drivers in the market

top-level overviews of the key countries in the region.

About this report

Product and strategy managers within pay-TV operators who require

market sizing for business planning purposes, as well as an overview of

key trends affecting the market to help them to develop propositions

accordingly.

Business development managers within vendors of video solutions who

need to assess the size of the opportunity for their products and

services.

Financial analysts who need to understand the dynamics and the size of

the pay-TV market.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE KEY METRICS

Regions modelled:

Individual countries

Emerging Asia–Pacific (EMAP)

Countries modelled individually:

China

India

Indonesia

Malaysia

Philippines

Thailand

Total pay-TV services

Connections as a percentage of

households

Spend

ASPU

All of the above split by the

following access technologies:

cable (analogue and digital)

IPTV

pay DTT

satellite (DTH)

Over-the-top (OTT) video to the

TV1


© Analysys Mason Limited 2016 3

5. Regional trends

6. Emerging Asia–Pacific: Infrastructure investment and IPTV will drive strong

regional growth in subscriber numbers and spend

7. Emerging Asia–Pacific: Bundling, piracy and digital migration

are some of the most-significant drivers of growth in the region

8. Emerging Asia–Pacific: China will account for most pay-TV

connections and spend; IPTV will grow strongly in most countries

9. Emerging Asia–Pacific: A consistent trend of pay-TV service

growth and increased OTT-to-the-set penetration is emerging

10. Emerging Asia–Pacific: Cable, satellite and IPTV services will all dominate in

at least one country in the region by 2021

11. Country-level trends

12. China: The pay-TV industry is being held back by cable

industry fragmentation

13. India: Limited infrastructure will restrict the growth of both

traditional and OTT video services in the country

14. Indonesia: Telkom Indonesia’s ambitious triple-play strategy

will help to double pay-TV penetration in the region by 2021

15. Malaysia: Infrastructure investment will drive growth in IPTV

and OTT video services

16. Philippines: Satellite services will continue to lead the

market, while piracy will subdue growth

17. Thailand: Growth in the number of traditional pay-TV

subscribers will be limited as operators focus on OTT services

18. Forecast methodology and assumptions

19. Our spend forecasts focus on linear and on-demand content to the TV set

20. Our definition of OTT video services (to the TV)

21. About the authors and Analysys Mason

22. About the authors

23. About Analysys Mason

24. Research from Analysys Mason

25. Consulting from Analysys Mason

Contents



Figure 1: Pay-TV spend by service type and ASPU for traditional and OTT-to-the-

TV-set services, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2013–2021

Figure 2: Pay-TV spend by service type, total spend and growth rates, emerging

Asia–Pacific, 2015–2021

Figure 3: Pay-TV connections and growth rates by type, emerging Asia–Pacific,

2015–2021

Figure 4: Selected factors that affect the take-up and value of pay-TV services in

emerging Asia–Pacific

Figure 5: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, emerging Asia–

Pacific, 2013–2021

Figure 6: Household penetration of traditional pay-TV services, emerging Asia–

Pacific countries, 2013–2021

Figure 7: OTT-to-the-TV-set subscription penetration, emerging Asia–Pacific

countries, 2013–2021

Figure 8: Traditional pay-TV connections by technology and OTT-video-to-the-TV-

set penetration by country, emerging Asia–Pacific, 2021

Figure 9: Household penetration of pay TV by access technology, China, 2013–

2021

Figure 10: Household penetration of pay TV by access technology, India, 2013–

2021

Figure 11: Household penetration of pay TV by access technology, Indonesia,

2013–2021

Figure 12: Household penetration of pay TV by access technology, Malaysia, 2013–

2021

Figure 13: Household penetration of pay TV by access technology, Philippines,

2013–2021

Figure 14: Household penetration of pay TV by access technology, Thailand, 2013–

2021

Figure 15: Scope of our pay-TV spend forecasts

Figure 16 : Definition of OTT video services to the TV

List of figures



Figure 4: Selected factors that affect the take-up and value of pay-TV services in emerging Asia–Pacific

7

1 ASO = Analogue Switch Off (the migration of all analogue broadcasts to digital transmission).

Emerging Asia–Pacific: Bundling, piracy and digital migration

are some of the key factors that affect growth in the region



PER MONTH

$

10.3

CA

TV

IPTV

DTH

OTT

19%

16

Figure 13: Household penetration of pay TV by access technology, Philippines, 2013–2021

Poor infrastructure coverage will continue to limit growth in

cable and IPTV, which will benefit satellite players. High levels

of piracy, as well as the adoption of fixed and mobile OTT

services, will restrict subscriber growth for cable and IPTV.

Sky Cable is working to address coverage issues by investing in

fixed infrastructure, launching its own DTH network in 2015. DTH

gained further ground in 2015 as Cignal TV successfully attracted

lower-value customers to pay for the first time.

Satellite will continue to dominate the Filipino market, growing

from 50% to 69% of traditional pay-TV subscriptions over the

forecast period. As broadband infrastructure improves, so will the

availability of OTT services, which may lead to some cord-cutting.

Philippines: Satellite services will continue to lead the

market, while piracy will subdue growth

PAY-TV MARKET KPIs 2021

8%

47%

1%

48%

4%

CATV IPTV DTH

DTT OTT

PAY-TV MARKET LEADERS, 2015

41%

26%

33%

Cignal SkyCable Others0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

FTA only

Pay DTT

DTH

IPTV

CATV

OTTttTVPer

cent

age

of h

ouse

hold

s

Source: Analysys Mason

16



CONTENTSCONTENTS

21

REGIONAL TRENDS

COUNTRY-LEVEL TRENDS

CHINA

INDIA

INDONESIA

MALAYSIA

PHILIPPINES

THAILAND

FORECAST METHODOLOGY AND ASSUMPTIONS

ABOUT THE AUTHORS AND ANALYSYS MASON



About the authors

Martin Scott (Principal Analyst) co-ordinates Analysys Mason’s research initiatives related to media, TV and fixed broadband. He manages

the Fixed Broadband and Video research programme and is a significant contributor to the Future Comms and Media programme. Martin has

held numerous positions within Analysys Mason during the last 10 years, including heading the company's Consumer Services, Data and

Regional Markets practices. He also launched Analysys Mason's Connected Consumer and Consumer smartphone usage series of research. His

primary areas of specialisation include service convergence, OTT video and media, consumer smartphone usage, and the bundling and pricing

of multi-play services.

Sherrie Huang (Research Programme Head, Asia–Pacific) is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason’s Asia–Pacific research programme and is

based in our Singapore office. Her research covers the entire Asia–Pacific region, and includes market data and forecasts for 15 key markets as

well as thematic reports covering key telecoms industry trends in the region. Sherrie has extensive expertise in fixed and mobile services and

has covered the telecoms industry from various angles, including strategy, market sizing and forecasting, end-user case studies, cost modelling

and regulatory issues. She previously worked at IDC, Ovum and ZTE in various Asia–Pacific countries in product marketing, project

management, and research and consulting roles.



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RESEARCH FORECAST REPORT PAY-TV SERVICES IN EMERGING …€¦ · forecasts for the number of pay-TV households, services, spend and average spend per user (ASPU) forecasts split by

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